Archive for October 30, 2013

Israeli Air Force Re-Organization Aims for Expanded Capacity to Hit 10x as Many Targets

October 30, 2013

Israeli Air Force Re-Organization Aims for Expanded Capacity to Hit 10x as Many Targets | Jewish & Israel News Algemeiner.com.

October 29, 2013 11:16 pm

Israel Air Force planes. Photo: Israel Defense Forces.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

A strategic re-organization of the Israel Air Force portends to increase its capacity to wage war by “an order of magnitude,” translating into a 10-fold increase in the number of targets that it could hit at once in war time, Brig. Gen. Amikam Norkin, chief of air operations, told Defense News.

Norkin said that Israel struck 1,500 targets during the eight-day Pillar of Defense operation, in Gaza, in November 2012, doubling the targets it hit in the 34-day Lebanon War, in 2006, six years earlier. The Expanding Attack Capacity program, designed by his superior, IAF Commander Maj. Gen. Amir Eshel, calls for Israel to be able to identify and attack 15,000 targets in a similar conflict.

“In Pillar of Defense, our daily attack capacity was twice that of Lebanon, despite the fact that [Gaza] was a much smaller area and more densely populated,” Norkin said. “Now, when we talk about the northern area of operations, we’re aspiring for an order of magnitude expansion — maybe more — in the number of targets to be destroyed every day.”

Israel will focus on “hurting the enemy where it hurts the most,” Norkin said, referring to enemy leadership, commanders and significant war-fighting assets, rather than rocket launchers. “We won’t be able to push the enemy to the point where he can no longer shoot rockets and missiles. Therefore we need to push him to the point where he doesn’t want to shoot his rockets and missiles,” he said.

Defense News said, “traditional waves of air attack should give way to an express train of precision strikes, allowing ‘first circle’ enemies such as Lebanon-based Hezbollah and Gaza-based Hamas little time to recover from the initial shock and awe of previous campaigns.”

“Air power assumes enormous added value in our defensive concept and in all Western cultures that are less tolerant of the heavy casualties that come from big maneuvering ground wars,” Norkin said. “It’s hard to stop the lethality of tanks once they start to move. In contrast, air power can be controlled in a very calibrated, surgical manner. It’s like a thermostat that you can direct as hard or as soft as needed or turned off entirely when it’s time to stop.”

In the new structure, the IAF will split into two divisions with one exclusively for planning and executing missions, separated from the areas where the IAF works with other Israel Defense Forces service branches, and focused more on cooperating with the IDF’s intelligence arm that supports air operations.

Reporting from Ramat David Air Base, Defense News said, “Officers here say the program affects all aspects of air operations, from the orders received from the Israel Defense Forces General Staff to the pilot in the cockpit and maintenance crews tasked with turnaround time. It also involves wholesale changes in mission planning, resource management, bomb damage assessment and the way the IAF coordinates movements with western coalition forces that may be operating in the region.”

U.S. Lawmakers Against Cutting Off Aid to Egypt

October 30, 2013

U.S. Lawmakers Against Cutting Off Aid to Egypt – Middle East – News – Israel National News.

U.S. lawmakers urge the White House to lift its suspension of military aid to Egypt, a key regional ally.

By Elad Benari

First Publish: 10/30/2013, 6:44 AM
Egyptian soldiers

Egyptian soldiers
Flash 90

U.S.  lawmakers on Tuesday urged the White House to lift its suspension of military aid to Egypt, AFP reports.

The lawmakers warned that freezing funds and weapons deliveries might unravel decades of cooperation with a key regional ally.

Democratic Representative Eliot Engel, a member of the House Foreign Affairs Committee, said he had initially supported a temporary halt to deliveries of F-16 aircraft to the Egyptian military following its ouster of President Mohammed Morsi in July.

“But today I do not believe that suspending the military aid will make the Egyptian government more democratic or make it easier for the United States to influence its behavior in the future,” he told the committee, according to AFP.

“In fact, I think it’s more than likely to have the opposite effect. And I’m afraid it could jeopardize the close U.S.-Egypt military cooperation that we’ve worked so hard to build over the last several decades,” he added.

The United States announced earlier this month that it would withdraw a significant portion of its military aid to Egypt. The U.S. provides $1.5 billion in annual aid to Egypt, but no dollar amount of the aid being cut was provided.

The military aid includes Apache helicopters, F-16 fighter jets, M1A1 Abrams tank parts and Harpoon missiles.

The decision came after months of debate since Morsi was deposed in early July. U.S. law forbids sending aid to countries where a democratic government was deposed by a military coup, but the U.S. has never qualified Morsi’s ouster as a “coup” and has been cautious about doing so.

The harsh government crackdown on pro-Morsi protestors  was seen by the U.S. as a step too far by the interim government.

More than 1,000 people, mainly Morsi supporters, have been killed since July 3 and authorities have rounded up some 2,000 Islamists, including most of the Muslim Brotherhood’s leadership.

Engel condemned the violence and agreed that “it’s clear that the Egyptian military has made some serious mistakes in managing the ongoing transition.”

“But if I were given the choice between the military and the Brotherhood, I’d take the military every time,” he noted.

Committee chairman Ed Royce worried about harming security operations on the Sinai Peninsula, and exposing other regional allies to greater insecurity.

“I would just urge the administration to reconsider its decision to withhold the sale of weapons systems that are going to be increasingly important to Egypt’s ability to confront terrorist organizations,” he said, according to AFP.

Republican Dana Rohrabacher went further, accusing the Obama administration of abandoning interim military chief Abdel Fattah al-Sisi despite being “grateful to him for stepping in to prevent this radical Islamic shift that would have destabilized the region.”

“We’re hanging General al-Sisi and the people that we’re applauding for defeating radical Islam in Egypt, we’re leaving them hanging out to dry,” Rohrabacher said.

Acting Assistant Secretary for the region, Beth Jones, told lawmakers that the U.S. was continuing to supply spare parts so the Egyptian military could continue to operate its already formidable arsenal.

“This recalibration reflects our effort to advance U.S. core interests in Egypt and the region while impressing upon the Egyptian leadership the importance of making progress toward a democratic transition,” Jones insisted.

Derek Challot, assistant defense secretary for international security affairs, stressed assistance for security in the Sinai as well as counterterrorism efforts would continue.

He hinted, however, that while delivery of large systems could be resumed, the nature of U.S. aid might change as it works with Egypt “to determine whether to sustain certain legacy systems that might otherwise be retired.”

“We want to continue a strong military-to-military relationship that preserves our strategic interests. And we want Egypt to develop a military that is prepared to meet the threats of the 21st century,” Challot said.

He insisted that the systems withheld from the Egyptian military were “not affecting their operational effectiveness in the Sinai at all.”

The Egyptian armed forces have launched large scale military operations against terrorists in Sinai in an attempt to suppress the insurgency, which has been going on for years but has gotten worse since Morsi’s removal.

Egypt’s Foreign Minister Nabil Fahmy recently said that the U.S. would be hurting itself if it cut off aid to Egypt.

“If your friends in the region, when they’re facing terrorism in particular, cannot depend on a continuous supply of equipment that deals with terrorism, then you are obviously going to raise questions in the mind of those friends about your dependability,” he said, referring to the United States.

“And that will affect your interests as well as those of your friends, like Egypt,” Fahmy added.

‘US has spying unit on roof of its Tel Aviv embassy’

October 30, 2013

‘US has spying unit on roof of its Tel Aviv embassy’ | The Times of Israel.

Analyst tells Maariv he has detected similar structures in photographs of US embassies in Beijing, Dubai, Moscow and Madrid

October 30, 2013, 1:06 am
The US Embassy in Tel Aviv. (photo credit: CC-BY Krokodyl, Wikimedia Commons)

The US Embassy in Tel Aviv. (photo credit: CC-BY Krokodyl, Wikimedia Commons)

The United States maintains hidden rooftop spying units at several embassies around the world, including Tel Aviv, Israeli intelligence analyst Ronen Solomon told the Maariv daily Tuesday.

The paper quoted unnamed Israeli security officials saying this did not surprise them.

Solomon said he had discovered such structures in photographs of US embassies in Beijing, Dubai, Moscow, Madrid and Tel Aviv.

The report followed a story in Germany’s Der Spiegel on Sunday claiming that the US embassy in Berlin is a “nest of espionage,” with spy equipment installed on upper floors and rooftops covered by “screens or Potemkin-like structures.”

The unnamed Israeli officials were quoted by Maariv saying that the working assumption in Israeli security is that the US monitors all calls in the Middle East, just as in Europe, especially if they are not encrypted.

On Friday, former Mossad chief Danny Yatom told the same paper that he was “certain” the US “has been listening in on its allies, including Israel… When the Americans think they need to listen in on someone, they’ll do just that.”

Yatom explained that there are two issues around which the Americans are likely spying on Israel — negotiations with Palestinians and the Iranian nuclear program. “It is important for them to know what Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu really thinks… They have interests here because they want to be able to contend with Israeli claims that arise when talking about these issues,” the ex-Mossad chief said.

Iran Nuclear Program Immune to Air Strikes Once Arak Reactor Starts Up | TIME.com

October 30, 2013

Iran Nuclear Program Immune to Air Strikes Once Arak Reactor Starts Up | TIME.com.

 

Satellite image of the Arak Nuclear Reactor in Iran collected on Feb. 9, 2013.
DigitalGlobe / Getty Images

Satellite image of the Arak nuclear reactor in Iran collected on Feb. 9, 2013

In the foreground of the nuclear talks between Iran and Western powers that got under way in Geneva this month were centrifuges, yellowcake and enriched uranium — all elements of what Iran calls a peaceful nuclear-energy program and what the West worries is a route to a nuclear weapon. But Iran has also charted a second route, one that could produce fuel for a possible bomb not from highly enriched uranium but out of plutonium, a product of the heavy-water reactor nearing completion in the hills outside the city of Arak, 300 km (190 miles) southwest of Tehran. Heavy water is water with an extra neutron, useful in moderating a nuclear reaction.

Because it is not yet up and running, the Arak heavy-water reactor has remained in the background of the nuclear controversy. But it looms larger every day. The reason: once Arak goes online, the option of destroying Iran’s nuclear program with air strikes becomes moot. The reactor is essentially invulnerable to military attack, because bombing one risks a catastrophic release of radioactivity. In the words of Israel’s last chief of military intelligence, Amos Yadlin, who piloted one of the F-16A’s that cratered Iraq’s Osirak heavy-water reactor in 1981 before it was due to become operational: “Whoever considers attacking an active reactor is willing to invite another Chernobyl, and no one wants to do that.”

That reality is the reason why some experts are drawing attention to a peculiar notice filed by Iran’s nuclear agency to the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) in May. Iran told the U.N. agency that, as it readies the Arak plant for operation, it intends to do a practice run: instead of inserting real fuel rods filled with uranium into the reactor’s core, where nuclear fission occurs, they would insert inert “dummy” fuel rods. And instead of pumping heavy water into the reactor to moderate the nuclear reaction and absorb the thermal energy being released, Iran said it plans to use “light water,” just ordinary H2O.

(MORE: White House Spars With Congress Over New Iran Sanctions)

The plan mystifies experts, who take particular issue with testing the system using light water. The facility would be contaminated by ordinary H2O, which if mixed with heavy water would render the latter unusable, because in order to work heavy water must be 99.75% pure.

“Anything above that is hard to achieve and testing the system with light water would leave a residual atmosphere of H2O that would degrade the heavy water when it is added,” writes one U.S. specialist of heavy-water reactors, who has worked with the Institute for Science and International Security (ISIS), a Washington, D.C.–based think tank, and who shared his assessment on condition he not be identified further. In other words, rather than save time, using ordinary water would delay the project for the weeks required to clean the system thoroughly enough to assure no trace of H2O remained; it wouldn’t take much to dilute the heavy water below 99.75%.

Iran’s stated intentions are unlikely enough that an Israeli nuclear specialist suggests that they might be a ruse. Ephraim Asculai, a scientist retired from the Israel Atomic Energy Commission, warns that Iran may have no intention of carrying out a dry run at all. It may be a cover story, he posits, for a plan to rush the installation of live fuel rods and heavy water instead — essentially getting the Arak facility “hot” before the outside world expects, at which point it becomes invulnerable to military attack. There might then be no way to stop Iran’s nuclear program short of invasion.

“At that point, they are in the ‘zone of immunity’ as it’s called,” says Asculai, who has also worked at ISIS; he is currently a senior research fellow at the Institute for National Security Studies, a think tank at Tel Aviv University.

Although Iran already has enough enriched uranium to fuel more than one bomb — should it make the decision to convert the enriched uranium to military use — that’s not all the world must worry about. “The Arak reactor is increasingly relevant and, yes, it’s been a sideshow,” says Mark Fitzpatrick, a former State Department nonproliferation chief now at the London-based International Institute for Strategic Studies, or IISS, where Asculai laid out the “ruse” possibility during a September talk. “The angle of Iran pulling a fast one isn’t something that can be dismissed,” says Fitzpatrick. “I think it’s unlikely,” he adds — because so rash an act would run counter to Iran’s patient behavior to date and it would take “a couple of years” to generate enough plutonium for a bomb. “But it’s something that should be factored into whatever is tabled in Geneva.”

(MORE: As Iran and the West Make Progress in Geneva, Israel Grumbles From the Sidelines)

U.S. officials say Arak is indeed on their radar. “We have very serious concerns about them having a plutonium capability, another pathway for fissile material for nuclear weapons,” a senior American official told reporters before the first round of talks since the election of Iranian President Hassan Rouhani; a second round is set for early November. “It is a subject,” the senior official said, “of enormous concern.”

That concern is shared by other Western nuclear experts who worry that Iran might try to sneak the plant online. Olli Heinonen, a former IAEA deputy director who is now at Harvard University’s Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs, says Iran might rush to declare the Arak plant operational before a watching world thinks it has produced enough fuel rods necessary to power the plant, which outside experts estimate at 100 to 150. Manufacture of the rods has apparently lagged, but Heinonen says Iran might install a far smaller number of fuel rods, perhaps as few as the 10 currently known to be in hand, and with that announce that Arak had become operational, and therefore too dangerous to bomb.

“It might be an exaggeration, but they could try to assert that the reactor is now loaded,” says ISIS president David Albright. Albright says that, technically, an Iranian claim that the reactor was “operating” with just 10 or 20 fuel rods would amount to a bluff, because more fuel would have to be in place to make the plant invulnerable to bombing. “Even if the fuel is partly loaded, the reactor could still be destroyed, and the radiological consequences of that would be very slight, if any,” he says. All that, of course, assumes that outsiders had a high level of confidence in how many rods are installed.

Iran claims the Arak plant is intended to produce isotopes for a variety of medical uses. But the reactor is far larger than required for that purpose, and, if fully operational, would generate enough plutonium to fuel two nuclear weapons annually. Extracting the plutonium would require another step, including the addition of a reprocessing facility Iran has not yet built, “but it wouldn’t be beyond them to get it on the black market, or more likely, from North Korea,” Fitzpatrick says.

Albright suggests another possibility, one altogether more heartening for the West: that the Iranians’ plan to test the plant with light water is sincere. “It’s not very smart,” he says, “which maybe implies something about Iranian capabilities and worries about the reactor.” The plant is years behind schedule, and the timetable slipped again after Iran’s May statement to the IAEA. The plan then was for a dry run in the final three months of 2013 and for the reactor to come online early in 2014. The timeline has been pushed back, but no one knows how far. IAEA inspectors complain that Iran has held back design information and limited their access to parts of the site.

“Before the delay was known, I estimated they could produce a plutonium device sometime toward the end of 2016, if everything went well for them,” says Asculai. “So there is still time. And meanwhile,” he says, “the enriched uranium route is really there.”

Hezbollah remains threat to Israel

October 30, 2013

Hezbollah remains threat to Israel – Israel News, Ynetnews

After second Lebanon War, Shiite group rebuilt its strength, arsenal, now poses acute threat to State of Israel

The Media Line

Published: 10.29.13, 22:47 / Israel News
 

When Israeli intelligence officials discuss the most serious threats to Israel today, they always start with Iran and its nuclear program. But not far behind is Hezbollah , the armed group in south Lebanon that is both part of the Lebanese government and classified as a terrorist organization by much of the international community.

“Hezbollah has thousands and thousands of rockets and missiles pointed at Israel and this is a problem,” Brig. Gen. (res) Amos Gilboa, who spent decades in Israeli army intelligence told The Media Line. “Hezbollah is a major threat to Israel. In the past, its firepower was mainly directed against northern Israel, but now it can also reach Tel Aviv, the heart of our industry and technology.”

During the 2006 war between Israel and Hezbollah, the group fired some 4000 short and medium range rockets at Israel killing 44 Israeli civilians. Israel used air strikes to destroy many of the rockets and their launchers, killing more than 1000 Lebanese, both civilians and fighters. Since then, Hezbollah has more than rebuilt its weapons capability and has some 100,000 rockets pointed at the Jewish state, according to Israel’s head of northern command Major General Noam Tibon.

Hezbollah also successfully spied on Israel, especially in the period until the 2006 war.

“Hezbollah was able to recruit and run a whole string of agents within Israel — some of them well connected within the army and police and with access to classified information,” Shlomo Shapiro, the head of the department of political science at Bar Ilan University told The Media Line. “They were able to obtain much of the information that Israel was seeking to deny from them and we could see their operational successes based on accurate and timely intelligence.”

He said Hezbollah operatives learned Hebrew well, and could eavesdrop on Israeli soldiers’ phone calls. Since 2006, Shapiro said, Israel has put a lot of effort into trying to break Hezbollah’s spying capability, and has succeeded, at least partially.

Hezbollah currently has thousands of fighters in Syria, bolstering Syrian President Bashar Al-Assad’s fight against rebel groups. Tibon told a recent conference that Hizbullah is fighting in Syria’s most violent regions. The number of Hezbollah fighters there is not clear. The Times of London reported that there are now only 3500 fighters there, as compared to 10,000 previously. Hundreds of Hezbollah fighters have been killed in Lebanon.

The ongoing conflict in Syria has spilled over into Lebanon on several fronts. Lebanon is currently hosting about one million Syrian refugees – the equivalent of one-fourth of the country’s population. There have also been growing clashes between supporters and opponents of Assad that have left at least 16 dead and 80 wounded in Tripoli. The Lebanese army has reinforced its presence there hoping to tamp down the violence.

At the same time, Hezbollah remains popular in Lebanon, says Lebanese journalist Farid Chedid.

“Hezbollah represents both religion and a belonging attachment to being Shi’ite,” Chedid, the editor of the Lebanon Wire, told The Media Line. “While there is some criticism of Hezbollah for fighting in Syria, most Shi’ites in Lebanon remain loyal.”

Hezbollah is also seen as the only regional power, with the exception of its patron Iran, which can stand up to Israel. Chedid said he did not expect a new regional conflict between Israel and Hezbollah in the near future.

“Hezbollah cannot fight on several fronts at once — not even a superpower can do that,” Chedid said. “Hezbollah is already worn thin in Lerbanon and does not have the willingness or capability to face a war with Israel. Israel is also happy with the calm on its northern border.”

The only way that could change, he says, is if Israel decides to launch a military strike on Iran. In that case, Hezbollah would launch hundreds of rockets at Israel, and Israel would most likely respond with air attacks.

Article written by Linda Gradstein

Israel on the prowl again as war looms in Lebanon – Alarabiya

October 30, 2013

Israel on the prowl again as war looms in Lebanon – Alarabiya.net English | Front Page.

Wednesday, 30 October 2013

Throughout the years, Lebanon’s demographics have experienced periodic changes. But particularly in the last two years, the demographic shift has been so overwhelming due to the influx of Syrian refugees in desperate need for shelter.

The situation is highly charged, if not perilous, considering Lebanon’s unmanageable sectarian balances, let alone the direct involvement of Lebanese parties in the brutal Syrian war. If not treated with sensitivity and political wisdom, Lebanon’s vastly changing demographics will not bode well in a country of exceedingly fractious sectarian politics.

The numbers speak for themselves. According to the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR), 790,000 Syrian refugees have crossed into Lebanon since the beginning of the conflict. The number is constantly increasing, as an estimated 75,000 make the difficult journey from Syria to Lebanon every month. Those refugees also include tens of thousands of Palestinians that have borne the brunt of the war in the last two years.

In addition to approximately 250,000 Syrians working and living in Lebanon, the country already hosts hundreds of thousands of Palestinian refugees who were driven out of Palestine in several waves, starting with the Nakba, or Catastrophe, in 1947-48.

War of numbers

While the refugees were initially welcomed by their host country — as Syrians were initially welcomed in Lebanon — they eventually became a party in Lebanon’s war of numbers, as each sect was terrified by the prospect of losing political ground to their rivals. It was only a matter of time before the Palestinian presence in Lebanon became heavily politicized, thus thrusting Palestinian factions into the heart of Lebanon’s sectarian brawl. The weakened and fragmented Lebanon was easy prey for Israel, which has jumped at every opportunity to invade the small country, leaving behind a trail of blood and destruction. And with every Israeli onslaught came an attempt at rearranging the power paradigm in favor of Tel Aviv’s allies at the expense of the others.

This bloody legacy is making a comeback due to the sectarian nature of the Syrian war, and Israelis are already on the lookout for a possible future role. Aside from the flood of Syrian refugees in Lebanon, legions of Lebanese fighters from Hezbollah and other groups are fully engaged in the Syrian strife based on clear sectarian lines. Eventually, the fight crossed over into Syrian borders and made it into Lebanon in the form of cars bombs, mortar shells, hostage-taking and occasional street fighting. If tension continues to build up, there is little question that Lebanon will become embroiled in yet another civil war.

All of this, of course, is welcomed news in Israel, which prefers to wait until the warring parties exhaust each other in every way before Israel decides the time and place of the new confrontation.

Israeli Defense Minister Moshe Ya’alon was quoted in the Jerusalem Post on Oct. 24 saying that a civil war between Hezbollah and “Global Jihad” had erupted in Lebanon. “To those who are not yet aware, there is already a civil war in Lebanon. Global Jihad, which has infiltrated Lebanon and is attacking Hezbollah, is blowing up cars in Dahia and is firing rockets at Dahia and the Beka’a Valley,” he said.

This is a win-win situation for Israel, which continues to navigate the Syrian war very carefully, so that it is not directly involved in the war, but ready to deal with its consequences whenever suitable.

Looking back

History is of the essence here. The Israeli attitude toward the war in Syria and the fledgling civil war in Lebanon is similar to its attitude toward Lebanon a few decades ago in the lead up to the Israeli invasion of 1978 and again in 1982, mostly aimed at destroying the Palestine Liberation Organization (PLO).

Lebanon’s political and social upheaval dates back to the pre-existence of both the PLO and Israel, to the years of French colonialism in the Middle East. In 1920, France separated Lebanon from greater Syria, which was under French mandate.

The country was then run by various Christian sects who represented a slight majority, according to a 1932 census.
When Lebanon became completely independent in 1945, a political arrangement on how to run the country was reached. Christian Maronites were given the seat of presidency, Sunnis the premiership, and a Shiite was installed as the speaker of Parliament. Other sects received less consequential positions, but the Parliament control ratio still favored Christian sects.

The PLO’s arrival in Lebanon in the early 1970s – following its departure from Jordan – aggravated the situation. The PLO represented Palestinians who were largely Sunni Muslims, and its existence and growth in Lebanon complicated the extremely delicate demographic balance.

The fiasco in Lebanon, however, was not a simple tit-for-tat action, but reflected internal and external balances and calculations. On one hand, the ruling Maronite leadership was greatly challenged by the presence of the PLO and the alliance between the latter and Lebanese opposition groups. The routine Israeli raids on Lebanese territories undermined the Lebanese army’s role as a protector of the country. Israel was determined to eradicate the “terror infrastructure” in Lebanon, i.e. PLO factions, thus using the civil war as an opportunity to intervene in 1976 by arming Christian militias. Additionally, Syria, which also intervened in 1976, did so first on behalf of the Palestinians, then on behalf of the Maronites, when it appeared that they were losing the fight.

A brief lull in the fighting in 1976 was soon interrupted by violence that engulfed Lebanon for nearly 15 years. In 1978, Israel occupied South Lebanon, driving away thousands of PLO fighters from the area, whose arrival to Beirut had shifted the balance of power, altering the alliances, and, once again Syria’s position. Tens of thousands of Lebanese and Palestinian civilians paid the heavy price of the fighting.

The PLO remained in Lebanon until the Israeli invasion of the country in the summer of 1982. Ultimately, the civil war achieved little for the warring parties except that it fit perfectly into Israel’s strategic goal of removing the PLO from South Lebanon and eventually the country altogether. When Israeli forces finally occupied Lebanon in 1982, as PLO fighters were being shipped by sea to many countries around the Middle East, a triumphant Israeli Defense Minister Ariel Sharon permitted his Christian Phalangist allies to carry out a notorious massacre in the Sabra and Shatilla refugee camps.

Yes, the circumstances are not exactly identical, and history cannot repeat itself in a carbon copy fashion. But these historical lessons should not escape us as we watch Lebanon descend into another abyss. Judging by the brutality of the Syrian war, Lebanon’s own bloody history, and Israel’s familiar military tactics, another Lebanese war is very much possible. Such a war will revive old animosities and establish new military alliances but as always the most vulnerable will pay the price as they already have in Syria’s unending bloodbath.

Cairo bids for brand-new Russian SS-25 ballistic missiles in major arms transaction with Moscow

October 30, 2013

Cairo bids for brand-new Russian SS-25 ballistic missiles in major arms transaction with Moscow.

( Another Obama success story… – JW )

DEBKAfile Exclusive Report October 29, 2013, 10:54 PM (IDT)
Russia's SS-25 road mobile ICBM

Russia’s SS-25 road mobile ICBM

Lt. Gen. Vyacheslav Kondrashov, Russian Deputy chief of staff and head of GRU military intelligence, spent the first day of his visit to Cairo, Tuesday, Oct. 29, with Egyptian military chiefs, going through the list of Russian military hardware items they want to buy in their first major arms transaction with Moscow in more than three decades, debkafile’s military sources report. The Egyptians asked Moscow to supply the sort of advanced weapons withheld by the United States, and topped their shopping list with medium-range intercontinental ballistic missiles that cover Iran and most of the Middle East.
They told the Russian general that Moscow’s good faith in seeking to build a new military relationship between the two governments would be tested by its willingness to meet this Egyptian requirement.
They are most likely after the brand-new SS-25 road-mobile ICBM which has a range of 2,000 km., which the Russians tested earlier this month.

Russia is not entirely comfortable with this demand, having signed a mutual agreement with the US to stop manufacturing medium-range ballistic missiles. And so the sale of SS-25 ICBMs to Egypt could get the Russians in hot water in Washington.
Gen. Kondrashov told his hosts that their list would receive serious scrutiny and, in the meantime, Moscow is prepared to offer Cairo long-term credit on easy terms to finance the package. This would relieve cash-strapped Egypt of the need to find the money to pay for the arms and save its leaders having to turn to Saudi Arabia and the Arab Emirates for funding.
The Russian general’s arrival in Cairo at the head of a large military delegation was the first in 35 years.  Since 1972, when Anwar Sadat expelled the Soviet advisers, Egypt has never acquired Russian weapons.

debkafile: Western sources are divided over the seriousness of the Saudi feud with the Obama administration and tend to minimize Riyadh’s shift away from its traditional ally, the US. But the Saudis are going full tilt to distance themselves from Washington and are meanwhile urging Egypt’s ruler Defense Minister Gen. Abdel-Fattah El-Sisi, to turn away from his country’s long dependence on America.  Hence the large arms transaction with Moscow, which was agreed as early as last July – and reported by debkafile at the time – when Saudi Intelligence Director Prince Bandar bin Sultan met Russian President Vladimir Putin at the Kremlin.

Word of the arrival of the Russian GRU general in Cairo appears to have prompted US Secretary of State John Kerry to announce Tuesday that he planned to visit to Egypt in the coming weeks. He may be too late to stop Egypt’s drift out of the US orbit, especially since he made it plain that he would insist on meeting with representatives of all the country’s political factions. This was taken to mean the Muslim Brotherhood and other opposition groups.
The Russian delegation has no plans to talk to any non-military figures in Egypt, which means that its members will not step out of the loyal circle centering on Gen. El-Sisi.

IDF to host foreign air forces in major military drill next month

October 30, 2013

IDF to host foreign air forces in major military drill next month | JPost | Israel News.

10/30/2013 05:21

Over 100 aircraft will take part in IAF-planned air-to-air, air-to- surface simulated combat drills, according to report.

An Israel Air Force jet

An Israel Air Force jet Photo: REUTERS

The Israel Air Force will host pilots and officers from foreign air forces for a major joint drill in southern Israel next month, the IDF said on Tuesday.

Details of the drill are being withheld for security reasons, an IDF spokeswoman stated.

The US-based Defense News website said in a report on Monday that nearly a thousand officers and pilots from at least three countries will arrive for desert-based air combat training, scheduled for November.

“Patterned after the US Air Force’s annual Red Flag desert exercise, the two-week Blue Flag at the Air Force’s Uvda training range north of Eilat marks Israel’s first multinational training event,” Defense News said.

Over 100 aircraft will take part in IAF-planned air-to-air and air-to- surface simulated combat drills, the report added.

“Due to diplomatic and security concerns, Israel is withholding the identities of participating air forces until their personnel and aircraft are safely in country,” it said.

According to Defense News, the US Air Force, as well as air crews from Bulgaria, Poland, Canada, Cyprus, Greece, Hungary and Italy are all potential participants, and have trained with the IAF in recent years.

White House, amid heating tensions with Israel, to brief Jewish leaders on Iran

October 30, 2013

White House, amid heating tensions with Israel, to brief Jewish leaders on Iran | JPost | Israel News.

( Obama trying to break the Jewish community’s support for Israel on Iran?  Good luck! – JW )

By JTA
10/29/2013 23:48

Emphasis on groups that deal with Israel’s security.

US President Barack Obama.

US President Barack Obama. Photo: Reuters

WASHINGTON  — Amid an escalation of signals that the Obama and Netanyahu governments are parting ways on Iran strategy, the White House called in American Jewish leaders for a briefing on short notice.

A small coterie of Jewish organizational leaders will meet Tuesday afternoon with top staff at the National Security Council to discuss Iran, according to the White House and officials of the Anti-Defamation League, the American Jewish Committee and the American Israel Public Affairs Committee.

The emphasis appears to be on groups that deal closely with Israel and its security concerns. A number of groups normally high on the list for White House briefings were not invited, including representatives of the Reform and Orthodox movements.

The invitation follows a tense, albeit coded, public exchange between Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and US Secretary of State John Kerry in the last two days over Iran, as well as persistent backing by pro-Israel groups for a congressional bid to enhance Iran sanctions despite White House pleas to put new sanctions on hold.

On Sunday, addressing his Cabinet, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu derided in unusually sharp terms the attempts to talk Iran down from 20 percent to 3.5 percent uranium enrichment.

“The Iranians are intentionally focusing the discussion on this issue. It is without importance,” said Netanyahu, who has insisted that Iran must dismantle all enrichment capabilities as part of a deal to end sanctions aimed at ending its suspected nuclear weapons program.

Netanyahu did not specify Kerry as advancing the proposal, but made it clear his remarks were made in the context of talks he had with Kerry last week in Rome.

“This was the focus of the long and detailed talks I had with John Kerry,” he said.

Kerry appeared to return the jab in an address Monday evening to the Ploughshares Fund, a group that advocates nuclear disarmament.

“The president has charged me to be and has welcomed an opportunity to try to put to the test whether or not Iran really desires to pursue only a peaceful program, and will submit to the standards of the international community in the effort to prove that to the world,” Kerry said.

“Some have suggested that somehow there’s something wrong with even putting that to the test,” he said. “I suggest that the idea that the United States of America is a responsible nation to all of humankind would not explore that possibility would be the height of irresponsibility and dangerous in itself, and we will not succumb to those fear tactics and forces that suggest otherwise.”

In recent days a number of leading Jewish groups, including AIPAC, the Jewish Council for Public Affairs and the Jewish Federations of North America, have reiterated support for advancing through Congress new and enhanced Iran sanctions, although the Obama administration has made clear publicly that it would prefer Congress put off dealing with the legislation until after the next round of talks in mid-November.