Archive for October 21, 2013

Rogue State

October 21, 2013

Rogue State – By Uri Sadot | Foreign Policy.

Think Israel wouldn’t strike Iran’s nukes in defiance of America’s wishes? Think again.

BY URI SADOT | OCTOBER 21, 2013

As American and Iranian diplomats attempt to reach a rapprochement that would end the historical enmity between their two governments, Israel is weary of being sidelined by its most important ally. While the U.S. incentive for diplomacy is great, it could place Washington in a short-term conflict of interests with Israel, which views Iran as an existential threat. With the renewed negotiations in place, will Israel dare strike a Middle Eastern nation in defiance of its closest allies? It seems unlikely, but 32 years ago, the answer was yes.

On June 7, 1981, Israel launched Operation Opera. A squadron of fighter planes flew almost 1,000 miles over Saudi and Iraqi territory to bomb a French-built plutonium reactor on the outskirts of Baghdad, which Israeli leaders feared would be used by Saddam Hussein to build atomic bombs.

The operation was successful, but the international reaction was severe. On the morning following the attack, the United States condemned Israel, suggesting it had violated U.S. law by using American-made military equipment in its assault. State Department spokesman Dean Fischer reiterated the American position that the reactor did not pose a potential security threat, and White House press secretary Larry Speakes added that President Ronald Reagan had personally approved the condemnation.

Israel didn’t hesitate back then to bomb what it viewed as a threatening nuclear program, even at the risk of provoking a conflict with the United States — and it will likely not hesitate today. As the strike against Iraq shows, Israeli policymakers see the acquisition of nuclear weapons by a hostile regime as an existential threat, and they will risk a breach with Israel’s closest allies to prevent it.

Twelve days after the Israeli strike on Iraq, the U.N. Security Council “strongly condemn[ed]” Israel’s attack as a violation of the U.N. Charter and the norms of international conduct. The wording of the resolution was carefully drafted by Jeane Kirkpatrick, the U.S. ambassador to the United Nations, and was unanimously approved by the council.

The Reagan administration, which had entered office less than five months prior, had been caught off guard by Israel’s surprise attack. Diplomatic cables from the Israeli Embassy in Washington that week reported a very difficult first few days in defending Israel’s actions. Israeli government spokesman Avi Pazner noted that the “fierce [critiques] of Israel were unlike previous reactions to Israeli operations in the past … and were fueled by the negative briefings given by the administration to Washington reporters.”

As Pazner suggested, the media response was scathing. The New York Times editorialized on June 9 that Israel’s attack “was an act of inexcusable and short-sighted aggression. Even assuming that Iraq was hellbent to divert enriched uranium for the manufacture of nuclear weapons.” The Washington Post stated, “the Israelis have made a grievous error … contrary to their own long-term interests and in a way contrary to American interests as well.”

The American public was also largely antagonistic to Israel’s attack. Some two weeks after the bombing, a June 19 Gallup poll showed that a plurality of Americans, 45 percent, did not think Israel’s strike was justified. In another Gallup survey, conducted one month after the attack, only 35 percent of Americans said they were “more sympathetic to Israel” than to Arab nations. While 57 percent of Americans believed Iraq was planning to make nuclear bombs, only 24 percent thought bombing its reactor was the right thing to do.

The Arab reaction to the raid was vociferous and universal. Iraq’s rivals, such as Kuwait, Iran, and Syria, denounced the attack, and Saudi Arabia even offered to finance the construction of a new Iraqi reactor. In Washington, recently declassified CIA estimates predicted that the aggravated Arabs would turn away from the United States and toward the Soviet Union. “Washington’s ability to promote Arab cooperation against a Soviet threat or to bring the Arabs and Israelis to the bargaining table has been struck a hard blow,” the report warned.

Within Reagan’s cabinet, opinions were split. Six years after a major break in U.S.-Israel relations, triggered by Prime Minister Yitzhak Rabin’s refusal in 1975 to withdraw from strategic areas in the Sinai, strong voices lobbied the president to teach Israel a lesson. These figures — including Vice President George H.W. Bush, Defense Secretary Caspar Weinberger, and Chief of Staff James Baker — were greatly concerned about Israel’s offensive use of American fighter jets, in violation of the 1952 military assistance treaty.

On the other side of the table sat Secretary of State Alexander Haig and National Security Advisor Richard Allen, who argued for only a symbolic punishment to placate world opinion.

After several days of discussions, Reagan eventually adjudicated in favor of Israel. He would later write in his memoirs that he was sympathetic to Israel’s position and “believed we should give [it] the benefit of the doubt.” He directed Kirkpatrick not to condemn Israel itself, but only its “action.” The actual punishment was also light — a delay on the delivery of fighter jets that only lasted a few months.

It was a close call for Israel, which in those years was even more reliant on America than it is today. The Jewish state was also grappling with a host of other issues: It was in the fragile final stages of establishing its peace treaty with Egypt, was dealing with tensions on its border with Syria that would erupt into war in Lebanon the following year, and was suffering from triple-digit inflation. But despite the myriad risks, the Israeli cabinet decided to attack.

Why? Above all, because its leaders truly believed that the nuclear program was an imminent existential threat. Israeli Prime Minister Menachem Begin would continue saying, until his last days, that in those years he experienced nightmares of Jewish children dying in a second nuclear holocaust — one that it was his duty to prevent. And the “Begin doctrine” that he created — that Israel will not tolerate weapons of mass destruction in the hands of an enemy state — is alive and well today.

What many international observers dismiss as alarmism was a very real factor in the mind of Begin, a Holocaust survivor who lost both his parents to the war. The same echoing trauma and sense of historical duty is ubiquitous among Israel’s top leadership. And it is apparently the prism through which Benjamin Netanyahu sees the world: “It’s 1938, and Iran is Germany,” the current Israeli prime minister told a conference in 2006. “[Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad] is preparing another Holocaust for the Jewish state.”

Nor was the attack on the Iraqi nuclear facility an isolated event. In 2007, Israel again decided to strike a nuclear reactor in defiance of its strongest ally. In the preceding year, U.S. and Israeli intelligence assets had discovered a covert Syrian plutonium reactor being built with North Korean assistance. For long months after its detection, Israel and the United States had intimately cooperated on how to handle its removal. It was only when President George W. Bush told Prime Minister Ehud Olmert that the United States had decided to take the matter to the United Nations, rather than strike itself — or agree to let Israel strike — that Jerusalem decided to act, even against an explicit American objection.

In both the Syrian and Iraqi cases, the Israeli government exhausted all other options before resorting to a military strike. Begin launched a sabotage campaign against Iraq’s nuclear program in 1979 after his cabinet decided that diplomacy had run its course. Iraqi scientists were assassinated, French technicians were threatened, and containers holding key parts of the reactor were blown up on their way to Iraq. But in January 1981, an internal intelligence committee ruled that sabotage was no longer “sufficient in delaying the program,” which lead to the ultimate decision to strike. In 2007, Olmert negotiated with the Americans in the hope that they would do the dirty work for him, and he only directed his military to strike after Bush turned him down.

Nothing indicates that Netanyahu’s thinking is any more dovish than that of Begin or Olmert. The Israeli premier is keenly aware of history and knows how small and short-lived the costs to Israel were in the past. He also knows that Israel was later greatly appreciated for the decisive actions it took, that the Israeli Jewish population takes the perceived threat from Iran seriously, and that the “Begin doctrine” is lauded domestically to this day. In an Oct. 15 Knesset speech marking the 40th anniversary of the 1973 war, he said, “There are cases when the thought about the international reaction to a preemptive strike is not equal to taking a strategic hit.”

The current talks between Iran and the international powers over Tehran’s nuclear program present Israel with an added challenge. It would look exceptionally bad for Israel to strike while its closest allies are invested in what is widely seen as historic negotiations. But the risk of isolation in 1981 may have been even greater than today: America was supporting Saddam in his war against Iran back then, while European countries were supplying Iraq with weaponry and were directly involved in the construction of the plutonium reactor. Some 150 Europeans were present in the Iraqi compound, leading Israel to schedule its attack for a Sunday. Despite that, a 25-year-old French technician died in the attack.

While a diplomatic opening did not exist in the Iraqi case, from Israel’s point of view the Iranian diplomatic démarche could go either way. A good deal — one that included sufficient verification of Iran’s nuclear program — would successfully delay the threat while averting unwanted military conflict. A bad deal, however, would provide Iran with diplomatic cover as it continues to grow as an existential threat to Israel — a situation that cannot be tolerated. The devil will likely be in the technical details, but if push comes to shove, it is unlikely that the American position will be a determining factor in Israel’s decision-making process.

The stakes for Israel today are just as high as they were in 1981, and the worldview of its top policymakers remains largely the same as it was then. It is unlikely that the negotiations with Iran will stop Netanyahu from ordering a strike if he concludes diplomacy has failed in providing security. To the contrary, if there is one likely scenario that would push Israel to act, it would be the prospect of an imminent deal with Iran that would isolate Israel while not addressing the threat it sees emanating from Tehran.

Commentary: Understanding Iran’s Nuclear Breakout Options

October 21, 2013

Commentary: Understanding Iran’s Nuclear Breakout Options | The National Interest.

( Thanks, Artaxes… – JW )

In the UN General Assembly on October 1, Israeli prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu described Iran’s strategy as to retain “sufficient nuclear material and sufficient nuclear infrastructure to race to the bomb at a time it chooses to do so.”

In general, there are three main conditions that will need to be present in order for Iran to develop a nuclear weapon. First, Iran would need the technical capacity to produce a critical mass of the uranium isotope U-235 (about 25 kg of uranium enriched to 90%) or the plutonium isotope Pu-239 (about 8 kg of weapons-grade plutonium), develop a detonation mechanism, and a delivery method. Secondly, Iran would need to make a political decision to militarize the nuclear program. And third, no external actor must succeed with halting, delaying or destroying the nuclear program with neither military nor other means. The U.S. and Israel are the only two countries that have signaled willingness to conduct a military operation against Iran’s nuclear program.

Given the first two conditions, one critical question should be examined to derive Iran’s strategy to “race to the bomb at a time it chooses to do so”: How can Iran reduce the probability that a military operation would succeed (or even undertaken) after it has made the decision to break out for the bomb?

Iran can reduce the expected time frame between when the militarization process begins and when a nuclear bomb is produced, thereby reducing the time available to the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) and Western intelligence agencies to detect the militarization and for political decision makers to undertake actions to stop it. Iran can reduce the time frame needed to acquire critical mass of enriched uranium to a minimum by stockpiling a large amount of uranium enriched to a level of near 20% and install more advanced and effective centrifuges. A small time frame would also have an internal effect on the Iranian decision-making and decision-undertaking. When the time from breakout to bomb is large, it is difficult to keep knowledge of the breakout secret within a limited group. It would then be time available for oppositionists in the regime (or workers at the facilities) to mobilize against the decision (or alert external actors). The opposite would be the case when the time frame is limited.

A successful Israeli military operation would in part rely on the ability to achieve surprise. However, since an Israeli operation might be triggered by the breakout itself, Iran would be able to dictate the terms. By reducing the time needed to produce critical mass of enriched uranium and coordinate the breakout with a larger military exercise, Israel’s ability to achieve the element of surprise would be reduced—and Israel would thus have an incentive to launch an attack before the breakout.

Iran can also reduce the utility of an intervention by finishing the heavy-water reactor in Arak and start operating it. A fully operational plutonium-producing reactor would be a politically sensitive target for any interventionist, since the civilian—and thus political—costs of bombing such a reactor would be quite large. If a military operation would leave the Arak reactor intact and only focus on the three other critical facilities in Natanz, Fordow and Isfahan, Iran could use the reactor for producing material for a nuclear bomb in the aftermath of the attack. In practice, this means that if a military operation is to be deployed, it should be conducted before the Arak reactor is operative. The attack on the Syrian al-Kibar reactor was reportedly triggered by similar concerns. Given the prize of achieving the immunizing effect of an operative reactor, Iran might be willing to temporarily suspend the enrichment program (or part of it) if a military intervention seems probable. In particular, a negotiated agreement where Iran is required to suspend its enrichment activity in Natanz and Fordow might be acceptable for the regime as long as the construction of the heavy water reactor in Arak is allowed to continue. An agreement of this kind might also provide Iran with more time to continue possible research concerning a detonation mechanism, warhead design, and delivery method. However, an interventionist would have an incentive to launch an attack before the reactor is operational, which means that its start-up date might trigger an operation against the other facilities as well. Iran’s strategists are probably thinking hard about how to make the reactor operative without anybody finding out until after its start-up date.

Iran would have an incentive to delay the construction of a reprocessing facility. Such a facility would be necessary to extract plutonium from the fuel rods used in the reactor. Iran has currently no known such facility with the capability to serve the Arak reactor, but would have an incentive to construct it after the reactor has gone critical. Constructing it now would just cause unnecessary friction with Western countries due to its probable military purpose.

Iran would also have an incentive to delay the breakout if it expects new defensive military means to be acquired or developed within a certain time frame. New acquisitions would increase Iran’s general defensive capacity, thereby reducing an interventionist’s ability to achieve a successful military operation. Iran has previously voiced its interest in the Russian-made S-300 anti-aircraft battery, though the Russians chose to halt the transfer of the system. Iran could be expected to delay the breakout if Russia would signal renewed interest in transferring this system or similar ones.

Lastly, Iran could choose to delay the breakout until the Syrian civil war is stabilized. Hezbollah, its main proxy against Israel, is currently participating in the conflict on the regime’s side. Should Israel undertake a military operation against the nuclear facilities at the current time, Iran would need to decide whether Hezbollah should focus on the Syrian civil war or a reprisal attack on Israel. By delaying the breakout until Hezbollah once again can focus its firepower on its southern enemy, Iran’s deterrence vis-à-vis Israel would be restored.

If Iran’s goal is to have the ability to produce nuclear weapons sometime in the future, it has several incentives to make concessions in the ongoing negotiations with the P5+1 countries. Careful thought should be given to what Iran’s breakout strategy might be—and how to obstruct it.

Thomas Saether is a Norwegian security analyst specializing in Middle Eastern affairs. He is a post-graduate of the MA program in Security Studies at Tel Aviv University.

US tries to calm Saudi anger over Syria, Iran

October 21, 2013

US tries to calm Saudi anger over Syria, Iran | JPost | Israel News.

By REUTERS
10/21/2013 18:44

Kerry meets Saudi FM, reportedly touts cites advantages of serving on UN Security Council after Riyadh rejects seat.

Saudi Arabia's Foreign Minister Prince Saud al-Faisal.

Saudi Arabia’s Foreign Minister Prince Saud al-Faisal. Photo: REUTERS

PARIS/KUWAIT – US Secretary of State John Kerry sought on Monday to calm rising tensions with Saudi Arabia, which has spurned a UN Security Council seat in fury at inaction over the crisis in Syria.

Saudi Arabia rejected a coveted two-year term on the council on Friday in a rare display of anger over what it called “double standards” at the United Nations. Its stance won praise from its Gulf Arab allies and Egypt.

Saudi Foreign Minister Prince Saud al-Faisal hosted a lunch for Kerry at his private residence in Paris on Monday. US officials said Washington and Riyadh shared the goals of a nuclear-free Iran, an end to Syria’s civil war and a stable Egypt, but acknowledged they do not agree on how to reach them.

“We expect they’ll have a substantive, a far-ranging conversation about all of those issues, areas where they disagree, areas where perhaps we can come closer together,” a senior State Department official told reporters before the lunch.

The official, speaking on condition of anonymity, said Kerry would not try to persuade the Saudis to reverse their rejection of a seat on the Security Council but would cite the advantages of being on the 15-member body, which can authorize military action, impose sanctions and set up peacekeeping operations.

“It does give you a voice even when you have frustrations,” the US official said. “It’s their decision to make.”

The council has been paralyzed over the 31-month-old Syria conflict, with permanent members Russia and China repeatedly blocking measures to condemn Syrian President Bashar Assad, a longtime ally of Riyadh’s regional arch-rival Iran.

Saudi Arabia backs the mostly Sunni Muslim rebels fighting to overthrow Assad. The Syrian leader, whose Alawite sect is derived from Shi’ite Islam, has support from Iran and the armed Lebanese Shi’ite movement Hezbollah. The Syrian leader denounces his foes as al-Qaida-linked groups backed by Sunni-ruled states.

Riyadh’s frustration with Russia and China now extends to the United States, not only over Syria, but also over Washington’s acquiescence in the fall of Egypt’s Hosni Mubarak in 2011 and its new quest for a nuclear deal with Iran.

No country has previously been elected to the council and then walked away. As an incoming member, Saudi Arabia would have taken up its seat on Jan. 1 for a two-year term. Riyadh demanded unspecified reforms in the world’s top security institution.

“BRAVE SAUDI POSITION”

Saudi anger boiled over after the United States dropped the threat of military strikes in response to a poison gas attack in Damascus in August by agreeing to give up his chemical arsenal.

Saudi Arabia was also concerned about signs of a tentative reconciliation between Washington and Tehran, something Riyadh fears may lead to a “grand bargain” on the Iranian nuclear program that leaves it at a disadvantage.

Expressions of support for Saudi Arabia from its Gulf allies contained no overt criticism of US policy, but echoed the kingdom’s complaints about the Security Council’s failure to end the war in Syria and resolve the Israeli-Palestinian dispute.

Kuwait shares Riyadh’s pain, Foreign Ministry Undersecretary Khaled al-Jarallah said, citing the “bloody massacres” in Syria and the “suffering of the Palestinian people”. He said the Saudi rejection of a council seat had sent a message to the world.

Plaudits also came from Cairo, which was promised billions of dollars in aid from Saudi Arabia, Kuwait and the United Arab Emirates in July after the army ousted President Mohamed Mursi. Most Gulf states view his Muslim Brotherhood with suspicion.

By contrast, Washington has cut aid to Egypt’s military.

“This brave Saudi position is favoured with all of Egypt’s respect and appreciation,” Foreign Minister Nabil Fahmy said in a statement.

The Egyptian head of the Cairo-based Arab League, Nabil Elaraby, also said Riyadh had every right to protest against the management of the Security Council, which he said should rethink the veto-wielding powers of its five permanent members.

The Saudi decision has handed the UN secretary-general and the permanent council members “historic responsibility to review the role of the United Nations, its powers and its charter,” UAE Foreign Minister Sheikh Abdullah bin Zayed al-Nahayan said.

Bahrain praised Riyadh’s “clear and courageous stand”, while Qatar suggested it could shake the world out of complacency.

Addressing his Saudi counterpart, Qatar’s Foreign Minister Khalid bin Mohamed al-Attiyah wrote on Twitter: “When you are angry, you send the world into disarray, so thank you.”

Off Topic: Russia bus bomb: Volgograd blast kills five

October 21, 2013

BBC News – Russia bus bomb: Volgograd blast kills five.

( “Spreading the light” Islamic style… – JW )

Amazing and horrifying video of the bus exploding on the highway.

An explosion that killed at least five people on a bus in the southern Russian city of Volgograd was caused by a bomb, Russian officials say.

They suspect a female suicide bomber – the partner of an Islamist militant – carried out the attack.

The blast, which happened just after 14:00 (10:00 GMT), also injured more than 20 people, some of them seriously.

The North Caucasus, to the south, has seen many attacks by Islamist militants in recent years.

Students

It is believed there were 40 people on board the bus, the BBC’s Steve Rosenberg in Moscow reports.

He says that all buses in Volgograd have been ordered back to their depots to be searched for any sign of explosives.

One man whose daughter survived the explosion told Moscow Echo radio: “It was a powerful explosion – a huge blast. There were lots of students on the bus.”

Map

Earlier reports had suggested the blast might have been caused by an exploding gas canister.

Volgograd lies about 900km (560 miles) south of Moscow.

Vladimir Markin, of the Investigative Committee – Russia’s equivalent of the FBI – told the RIA Novosti news agency: “A criminal case has been opened under articles outlining terrorism, murder and the illegal use of firearms.”

Other news agencies quoted sources at the committee as saying the suspected suicide bomber was the partner of a militant Islamist. One source said the woman had recently converted to Islam.

In recent years, Russia has seen a number of attacks by women suicide bombers, known as black widows, who are often related to Islamist militants.

Female suicide bombers struck at two underground railway stations in Moscow in 2010, killing more than 35 people.

They were also believed responsible for explosions on two passenger jets at a Moscow airport in 2004 that killed about 90 people.

Separatists in Chechnya have fought two wars with Russian forces over the past two decades.

But the violence has spread across the North Caucasus in recent years, including to mainly-Muslim Ingushetia and Dagestan.

Hundreds of people, including members of the government and security services, have been killed.

President Vladimir Putin has stepped up security in the North Caucasus ahead of the 2014 Winter Olympics, which open in the Black Sea resort city of Sochi on 7 February.

Iranian official: Closure of Fordow not on agenda

October 21, 2013

Iranian official: Closure of Fordow not on agenda – Israel News, Ynetnews.

Lawmaker insists closing of nuclear facility not discussed in Geneva talks with world power, Iranian media reports. According to him, Iran’s deputy FM clarified Tehran will not cease uranium enrichment

Roi Kais

Published: 10.21.13, 17:19 / Israel News

An Iranian lawmaker told the Iranian news website Press TV that the closure of the Fordow nuclear facility is not on the agenda of the Iranian negotiators during the talks with the six world powers.

According to the official, Iran’s chief nuclear negotiator Abbas Araqchi has clarified to the Western powers that Tehran would not stop uranium enrichment and will not close Fordow.

The official, Mohammad Hossein Asafari, a member of Iran’s National Security and Foreign Policy Committee, was cited by the Iranian website as saying that the decision on the acceptance of the Additional Protocol, which allows the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) to hold flash inspections of nuclear plants, is for the Iranian parliament to make.

Talks between Iran and the five world powers and Germany (PF+1) ended last week with the decision to return to the negotiation table on November 7. The White House stated as the talks were over that the Iranian offer was “the most serious yet,” and the European Union’s foreign minister said that her staff are examining it closely.

Photo: Reuters

“Closing Fordow not on agenda” (Photo: Reuters)

On Sunday, Iran’s President Hassan Rohani said in a cabinet meeting that “the Zionist regime’s hostile stance and its attempts to sabotage the understandings between the two sides will lead to its isolation.”

Rohani’s statements echoed similar ones made by his foreign minister, Mohamad Javad Zarif, who accused Israel of trying to undermine attempts to reach a deal on Iran’s nuclear program. The Iranian news agency IRNA reported that Rohani claimed experience shows that every time the Islamic Republic made headway on the international arena, “The Zionists launched sabotage efforts in Iran and out of it.”

Meanwhile, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu gave an interview for the NBC network and warned that Iran is agreeing to a partial dismantlement of its nuclear program only to dissolve the sanctions imposed on it.

“They’re trying to give a partial deal that they know could end up dissolving the sanctions regime and would keep them with the nuclear weapons capabilities.”

“Any partial deal could end up in dissolving the sanctions,” Netanyahu stressed. His remarks follow reports regarding the Iranian proposal during the last round of talks in Geneva, and the American willingness to free frozen Iranian assets in the US, worth billions of dollars.

Iranian official: Information on nuclear talks made up by Zionists

October 21, 2013

Iranian official: Information on nuclear talks made up by Zionists | i24news – Information has a new name.

Responding to Netanyahu’s calls to maintain sanctions on Iran, leader alleges Israel finds itself in isolation

Iran’s deputy foreign minister last week said that his country made no commitment at the Geneva nuclear talks, adding that none of the country’s red lines are ever subject to negotiations.

Iranian Deputy Foreign Minister for Legal and International Affairs Abbas Araqchi made the comments while briefing a parliamentary committee on the two-day discussions between Iran and the six powers — the US, Britain, France, China, Russia and Germany — in Geneva on October 15-16.

Araqchi said in an interview with the Iranian channel Al-Alam Araqchi he regretted that some of the media in Iran have been influenced by the “Zionist game.”

“The entity occupying Jerusalem is not sparing any effort to undermine and place obstacles in the path of negotiations.”

Regarding details of the Tehran talks with the six world powers, Araqchi said, “What is published is not true and are guesses. The source of the invented details are the Zionists.”

The top Iranian nuclear negotiator said that the country’s proposal presented in the latest talks between Tehran and world powers was aimed at protecting Iranian rights to use nuclear energy for peaceful purposes.

The defined goal is safeguarding Iran’s nuclear rights, both in terms of uranium enrichment and in fuel production field, Araqchi was quoted as saying on Sunday.

Iranian President Hassan Rouhani on Sunday accused Israel of trying to derail his efforts to build bridges with the West over his country’s unsanctioned uranium development program. The leader alleged it was the success of his diplomacy that has left Israel in isolation and forced it on the defensive.

Iranian state-controlled Press-TV quoted Rouhani as saying “Throughout the history of the Islamic Revolution, we have witnessed that whenever the Islamic establishment gets close to a success in the international political scene, the Zionist Israelis commit acts of sabotage … inside and outside (of Iran).”

Rouhani has also spoken in praise of his bout of “active diplomacy,” staking the claim that “The administration’s diplomatic initiative in constructive interaction with the world … has both made the (world) governments praise the democracy in Iran and halted the growing process of (imposing) sanctions (against Iran).”

Rouhani remarks were made on the heels of Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s many statements to the effect that Iran’s newly found political moderation is not to be taken at face value, the two latest of which were delivered on Sunday.

“I think that in this situation as long as we do not see actions instead of words, the international pressure must continue to be applied and even increased,” Netanyahu told his cabinet ministers. “The greater the pressure, the greater the chance that there will be a genuine dismantling of the Iranian military nuclear program.”

Speaking to NBC, the leader said “I think the pressure has to be maintained on Iran, even increased on Iran, until it actually stops the nuclear program, that is, dismantles it,” warning against “any partial deal could end up in dissolving the sanctions.”

Drawing the analogy with Syria’s stated commitment to destroy its cache of toxic munitions, Netanyahu said “Suppose Syria said, ‘Well, you know, we’re going to dismantle 20 percent of it…. Nobody would buy that. That’s exactly what Iran is trying to do. They’re trying to give a partial deal that they know could end up dissolving the sanctions regime and would keep them with the nuclear weapons capabilities.”

According to an unnamed Israeli official cited by the Haaretz diplomatic correspondent, Barak Ravid, Israel is being kept closely informed by the United States and the UK regarding last week’s talks with Iran on its nuclear program. The bottom line to emerge from the reports is that the Iranians “are not willing to completely shut down their sites but they are willing to greatly restrict and limit them.”

Iranian Deputy Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi addressed the talks in Geneva which he had attended and said, “The entity occupying Jerusalem is not sparing any effort to undermine and place obstacles in the path of negotiations.” In an interview with the Iranian channel Al-Alam Araqchi expressed regret that some of the media in Iran have been influenced by the “Zionist game.”

Regarding details of the Tehran talks with the six world powers, Araqchi said, “What is published is not true and are guesses. The source of the invented details are the Zionists.”

Iran has no one to fear

October 21, 2013

Iran has no one to fear – Israel Opinion, Ynetnews.

Op-ed: President Obama’s advisors believe, as he does, in appeasing enemies and brutal dictators

Shoula Romano Horing

Published: 10.21.13, 10:17 / Israel Opinion

Just as in 1939, evil has no one to fear. As in pre-World War II, evil is winning in the battle of wills with the democratic free world. Then and now, evil knows that the West lacks the will and stomach to confront it militarily and prefers instead to be deluded with worthless diplomatic negotiations and temporary agreements. Then and now, the American public is choosing to absorb itself with its own internal and economic issues while Europe is led by weak leaders who lack the backbone or moral conviction to fight evil.

On July 6, 1939 the British Foreign Office heard from the British military attaché in Berlin that Hitler’s Finance Minister Count Lutz Schwerin von Krosigk, had advised a visiting British general: “Take Winston Churchill into the Cabinet. Churchill is the only Englishman Hitler is afraid of. He does not take the Prime Minster Chamberlain or Halifax seriously, but he places Churchill in the same category as Roosevelt. The mere fact of giving him a leading ministerial post would convince Hitler that we really meant to stand up to him.”

In 2013, there is no Churchill anywhere except Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. He is the lone prophet who is warning the world not to be fooled and misled by the new conciliatory tone of the new Iranian President Rohani while his regime continues developing its nuclear weapons program.

There is no Roosevelt in the White House. Roosevelt did not try to meet, talk to, or negotiate with Hitler or one of his lieutenants.

Sadly, President Obama has tried repeatedly to meet and shake the hand of one of the lieutenants of the true dictator of Iran, Ali Khamenei. While Obama proudly described his 15 minutes phone call with Iranian President Rohani as an historical breakthrough which has the potential to resolve the nuclear issue through negotiations and form a new relationship with Iran, Rohani described the phone call as the culmination of a desperate and humiliating US pursuit of the Iranian president.

In the Middle East, brutal dictators only respond to the fear of a credible threat of the use of physical force. The fact that Obama has been so desperate to get to the negotiating table with a brutal repressive regime that is world‘s biggest state sponsor of terrorism and is aggressively pursuing nuclear weapons capability, sends a dangerous signal to the Iranians that Obama does not have the mettle for the use of force against the regime.

Furthermore, no one in Obama’s present cabinet could convince Khamenei that they mean to stand up to him. His present second term national security cabinet and advisors consist of old time friends prior to his becoming president, who believe, like he does, in engaging and appeasing enemies and brutal dictators, sympathizing with the Palestinians, blaming Israel for lack of peace, and pressuring an ally for dangerous concessions.

John Kerry, the secretary of state: As a senator he was a fierce critic of Bush’s hardline stance against Syrian President Bashar Assad, and worked hard to undercut the White House sanctions against Syria by advocating a policy of engagement. He also stated in July that the core issue of instability in the Middle East and in many other parts of the world is the Palestinian-Israeli conflict.

Chuck Hagel, the secretary of defense: He opposed sanctions against Iran and called for direct negotiations with the Iranian regime. He also has advocated for direct talks with Hamas and Hezbollah in the past, which the US considers to be terrorist organizations.

John Brennan, the CIA director: As Obama’s advisor for counterterrorism, he stated that the US policy should be to “build up the more moderate elements within Hezbollah”. He has refused to link the words” Islamic” and “terrorism” and called Jerusalem by its Arab name” Al Quds”.

Susan Rice, the national security advisor: Human rights activists say that Rice has been very close and friendly with many repressive African dictators since the 90s and looked the other way when they committed atrocities. As the UN ambassador she fought the Security Council’s attempt to raise the issue that Rwandan President, Paul Kagame, with whom she has a close relationship, supplied and financed M23, a brutal Congo rebel force that is accused of committing atrocities. Last year she gave a glowing eulogy to the late Ethiopian prime minister Meles who silenced political opponents, forged a single party state, and dismantled the rule of law. She failed to speak up when Iran was elected to the UN Women’s Commission but strongly condemned Israeli settlement activity as eroding hope for peace and stability in the region.

Samantha Power, the US ambassador to the UN: As the first head of the President’s Atrocities Prevention Board, she was silent on the violence in Syria and in South Sudan, but suggested that the US should send troops to invade Israel to impose a two-state solution.

With such circle of friends advising him, there is no chance that Obama will change his core beliefs and militarily stop Iran from gaining nuclear weapons capability.

The only one left to fear is Bibi Netanyahu. As the Israeli prime minister promised the UN General Assembly, echoing Churchill’s words from 1940,”If Israel is forced to stand alone, Israel will stand alone”.

Shoula Romano Horing is an attorney. Her blog: www.shoularomanohoring.com

Signs of rift between Israel and US over Iran

October 21, 2013

Signs of rift between Israel and US over Iran | The Times of Israel.

American officials hint at possible easing of sanctions as Netanyahu urges more pressure

October 20, 2013, 10:55 pm Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu addresses the Knesset plenum (photo credit: Miriam Alster/Flash90)

Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu addresses the Knesset plenum (photo credit: Miriam Alster/Flash90)

AP — Just days after the first round of global nuclear talks with Iran, a rift appears to be emerging between Israel and its closest ally, the United States.

Israel’s prime minister on Sunday called on the US to step up the pressure on Iran, even as American officials hinted at the possibility of easing tough economic pressure. Meanwhile, a leading Israeli daily reported the outlines of what could be construed in the West as genuine Iranian compromises in the talks.

The differing approaches could bode poorly for Israel as the talks between six global powers and Iran gain steam in the coming months. Negotiators were upbeat following last week’s talks, and the next round of negotiations is set to begin Nov. 7.

Convinced Iran is pursuing nuclear weapons, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu believes the Iranians are trying to trick the West into easing economic sanctions while still pushing forward with their nuclear program. Iran insists its program is for peaceful purposes.

“I think that in this situation as long as we do not see actions instead of words, the international pressure must continue to be applied and even increased,” Netanyahu told his Cabinet. “The greater the pressure, the greater the chance that there will be a genuine dismantling of the Iranian military nuclear program.”

Israel considers a nuclear-armed Iran a threat to its very survival, citing Iranian references to Israel’s destruction.

Netanyahu says pressure must be maintained until Iran halts all enrichment of uranium, a key step in producing a nuclear weapon; removes its stockpile of enriched uranium from the country; closes suspicious enrichment facilities and shutters a facility that could produce plutonium, another potential gateway to nuclear arms.

Despite Netanyahu’s warnings, there are growing signs that any international deal with Iran will fall short of his demands.

Over the weekend, US officials said the White House was debating whether to offer Iran the chance to recoup billions of dollars in frozen assets if it scales back its nuclear program. The plan would stop short of lifting sanctions, but could nonetheless provide Iran some relief.

In an interview broadcast Sunday on NBC, US Treasury Secretary Jack Lew said it was “premature” to talk of easing sanctions. But he stopped short of endorsing the tough Israeli line and suggested the US would take a more incremental approach in response to concrete Iranian gestures.

Asked whether he was worried the US might ease the sanctions prematurely, Netanyahu urged against a “partial deal” with Iran. “I don’t advise doing that,” he said on NBC’s “Meet the Press.”

Details from last week’s talks in Geneva have remained tightly guarded, but short-range priorities have been made clear. The US and allies seek to roll back Iran’s highest-level uranium enrichment. Iran wants the West to start easing sanctions.

The Israeli daily Haaretz on Sunday reported what it said were the key Iranian proposals last week.

Citing an unidentified senior Israeli official who had been briefed by the Americans, the newspaper said that Iran is ready to halt all enrichment of 20 percent, limit lower-level enrichment of 5 percent and scale back the number of centrifuges it is operating for enrichment. It also claimed that Iran expressed willingness to reduce the operations of its most controversial nuclear facilities, and perhaps open them to unannounced inspections.

Netanyahu’s office declined comment on the report, though it confirmed the US has kept it updated on the nuclear talks.

The Yediot Ahronot daily newspaper said an “explosion” between Netanyahu and President Barack Obama appears to be inevitable. While Israeli officials are intrigued by the Iranian offer, it said “officials in the prime minister’s inner circle harbor a deep concern … that the American president is going to be prepared to ease sanctions on Iran even before the talks have been completed.”

Ephraim Asculai, a former official of the Israel Atomic Energy Commission and currently a research fellow at the Institute for National Security Studies, said it was too early to talk of a gap between Israel and the United States because the US position on a compromise was not yet clear. He said the most important thing is to prevent Iran from stalling while it moves forward with its weapons program.

But Yoel Guzansky, an Iran expert at the institute and a former national security aide in the prime minister’s office, said there will always be a gap between the US and Israel due to their different military capabilities and the level of threat they face.

Guzansky said Israeli officials realize that they will not get everything they seek, and are pressing a maximalist view in hopes of getting as many concessions out of Iran as possible.

“It appears that the Americans are interested in a scaled approach,” he said. “Israel is very concerned about this and it has good reason to. It’s afraid the deal will become a slippery slope,” he said.

However, Guzansky said Israel has little choice but to rely on the US If there is a deal, it will all but rule out the possibility of unilateral Israeli military action, he said.

“Israel really only has one option,” he said. “The chance it will act alone after the Americans make a deal is minuscule.”

Copyright 2013 The Associated Press

Rouhani: ‘Zionists resort to sabotage when Iran succeeds’

October 21, 2013

Rouhani: ‘Zionists resort to sabotage when Iran succeeds’ | The Times of Israel.

Iranian president says Tehran has already achieved diplomatic success on nuclear front

October 21, 2013, 12:56 am
Iranian President Hassan Rouhani speaks during an interview with state television in September 2013, in Tehran, Iran (photo credit: AP/Presidency Office/Rouzbeh Jadidoleslam)

Iranian President Hassan Rouhani speaks during an interview with state television in September 2013, in Tehran, Iran (photo credit: AP/Presidency Office/Rouzbeh Jadidoleslam)

Iranian President Hassan Rouhani said on Sunday that his country has succeeded in isolating Israel and explained it was the reason why the Jewish state was trying to “ruin the positive atmosphere” surrounding talks about Iran’s nuclear program.

Speaking at a cabinet meeting, Rouhani said Iran must be careful about foreign enemies’ plans for damaging unity in the country, the official IRNA news agency reported.

Rouhani added Israel was trying to undermine the ongoing nuclear negotiations.

“The Zionists have resorted to sabotage and creating incidents at home and abroad,” he said, adding that the history of the Islamic Revolution showed that this ostensibly happened every time the Islamic Republic was close to a breakthrough in the international arena.

Rouhani praised his government’s diplomatic efforts, saying his administration actively took the initiative in the global arena and “won the battle in the court of public opinion in the countries that have imposed sanctions on Iran,” according to Tehran Times.

He added that his administration has already achieved diplomatic success by stopping additional sanctions on Tehran and by engaging constructively with world powers.

“With the grace of God and thanks to the political epic of the people in the election, the diplomatic movement of the government, in constructive interaction with the world and through the support and trust of the Supreme Leader of the Islamic Revolution, has produced valuable results in this short time, which has both prompted governments to praise democracy in Iran and also halt the increasing trend of sanctions against Iran,” the Tehran Times quoted Rouhani as saying at the cabinet meeting.

“It [the government] is consolidating its nuclear rights step by step, and removing hurdles from the path of the nation’s progress,” he added.

The Iranian president concluded by saying that the “the dignified path of the Iranian nation is clear, and the goals that have been set out by the Supreme Leader of the Revolution for the development of the country will be vigilantly pursued.”

Earlier Sunday, Iran’s parliament speaker, Ali Larijani, warned that too much pressure from the West during nuclear talks could force Iranian lawmakers to call for stepping up atomic work.

The message from Larijani followed appeals by some members of the US Congress to tighten sanctions despite nuclear negotiations that began last week in Geneva. It also appeared to address concerns by hard-liners over possible Iranian concessions in efforts to ease sanctions by the US and its allies.

Larijani said parliament could have a voice in the “amount and diversity” of nuclear activities, suggesting it could urge expanded nuclear activity if the West shows a “double standard and unjustifiable behavior.” He gave no further details in comments reported by the semiofficial Fars news agency.

Details from last week’s talks remain tightly guarded, but short-range priorities have been made clear. The US and allies seek to roll back Iran’s highest-level uranium enrichment, which is several steps away from weapons grade. Iran wants the West to start withdrawing sanctions, which have hit Iran’s vital oil exports.

The next round for talks is scheduled in Geneva for Nov. 7-8 between Iran and the P5+1, the permanent UN Security Council members and Germany. The West and others fear that Iran could eventually produce a nuclear weapon. Iran insists it only seeks reactors for energy and medical use.

According to Israeli officials who were briefed on last week’s round of nuclear discussions, Iran is reportedly willing to stop enriching uranium to 20 percent and “greatly restrict” activity at its nuclear facilities in exchange for a lifting of Western economic sanctions against the Islamic Republic, but won’t give up nuclear technology altogether.

Speaking at the start of the weekly cabinet meeting Sunday, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu called for international pressure [on Iran] to continue, and even be increased, as long as “we don’t see actions instead of words” from Tehran.

Netanyahu stressed that the world should not forget that Iran “systematically deceived the international community” with regard to its nuclear program.

The New York Times said Friday that the Obama administration was weighing a graduated unfreezing of Iranian overseas assets, without rescinding the sanctions themselves.

Israel’s Minister for Strategic and Intelligence Affairs, Yuval Steinitz, is set to travel to the US this week — both to be briefed on what was said in Geneva, and to warn Washington against being duped into premature concessions to Iran.

Netanyahu is also set to discuss the Iranian issue with US Secretary of State John Kerry during a Rome meeting this week.

Israel’s position, according to Hebrew media reports, is that the concessions offered by Tehran would still leave Iran with the infrastructure for a nuclear weapons program in the future. Netanyahu has repeatedly demanded that Iran be stripped of its entire “military nuclear” program, with Arak and Fordo closed, all capacity to enrich uranium removed, and already enriched uranium shipped out of the country.

Rouhani said over the weekend that Iran has “the necessary political will” to strike a “win-win” deal with the international community over its nuclear program, the Tehran Times reported on Sunday. He added that last week’s meeting in Geneva, called the “most serious thus far,” by the White House, showed that “others became aware of the political will of the Islamic Republic of Iran.”

Tehran is seeking relief from years of crippling sanctions imposed upon it by the West, which Israel insists be kept in place as the only factor pushing Iran to negotiate.

Rouhani said that Tehran hopes that “effective steps will be taken to resolve” the sanctions imposed on Iran. “The Islamic Republic of Iran will make every effort to prove to the international community that all its measures are legal and that it has nothing to conceal,” he said.

Did Saudi Arabia reject UN Security Council seat to uphold honor?

October 21, 2013

Did Saudi Arabia reject UN Security Council seat to uphold honor? | JPost | Israel News.

( Another feather in Obama’s unbroken string of foreign policy disasters. – JW )

10/21/2013 06:27

The Saudis, in the midst of a regional conflict with Shi’ite Iran, have been supporting the predominantly Sunni rebels in Syria against Iran’s ally, President Assad.

US Sec. of State John Kerry and Saudi FM Saud al Faisal

US Sec. of State John Kerry and Saudi FM Saud al Faisal Photo: REUTERS

After Saudi Arabia became the first country to reject a seat on the UN Security Council on Friday, speculation has been rife as to why.

Was it because of Israel and the Palestinian issue, or – more likely – because of frustration and anger directed at the US and other world powers over inaction in Syria and the recent rapprochement underway with Iran? And wouldn’t it serve Saudi interests to be on the council, influencing decisions, rather than on the sidelines? Perhaps the general dysfunction of the council, along with the blocking action by China and Russia preventing effective measures against Syria and Iran, have left the Saudis feeling they have nothing to gain from joining.

In the Saudi-backed daily Asharq Alawsat, Hussein Shobokshi wrote an article titled “Rejection is better than capitulation.”

It stated that “Saudi Arabia made the Syrian revolution one of the pillars of its foreign policy,” while Security Council members Russia and China “have both overtly supported [Syrian President] Bashar Assad’s regime, which continues its merciless killing of the Syrian people.”

Thus, accepting the position would have held Saudi Arabia back from pursuing its own agenda in Syria, by putting it at odds with the rest of the council.

Shobokshi said that Saudi diplomacy is known for working behind the scenes, but that even so the move “took everyone by surprise.”

But he argued that “by rejecting this seat in this manner, Saudi Arabia has increased its international stature,” taking a principled stance on Syria and showing that it is willing to make sacrifices for it.

Could the move be a show to grab the world’s attention? Dore Gold, president of the Jerusalem Center for Public Affairs and former Israeli ambassador to the UN, told the The Jerusalem Post that the Saudis are demonstrating “very unusual behavior.” Some pundits have argued that the Saudi government, on account of its leadership’s age, is incapable of taking any forceful action, “but this decision of Saudi Arabia shows how wrong these analysts were,” he said.

The Saudis, in the midst of a regional conflict with Shi’ite Iran, have been supporting the predominantly Sunni rebels in Syria against Iran’s ally, President Assad.

But Gold said that as a result of Bashar Assad’s concession of chemical weapon disarmament, “his government has gotten a new international lease on life, thereby undermining the entire Saudi strategy in Syria for the last two years and providing an enormous victory for Iran.”

Asked if the Saudis really care about the Palestinian issue, Gold responded that “the Saudis genuinely have issues with the Israel-Palestinian conflict, but right now the issue of Iran overshadows that.”

The Saudis have had differences with the UN before, “but this is indicative of how disturbed the Saudi establishment is about Syria and Iran,” he said.

Mordechai Kedar, director of the Center for the Study of the Middle East and Islam (under formation) and a research associate at the Begin-Sadat Center for Strategic Studies at Bar-Ilan University, wrote on his blog that the Saudis publicly expressed that they were taking a moral stand on the Palestinian and Syrian issue, but failed to directly mention Iran.

Ironically, Israel is not a threat to the Saudis, but the Iranians and their pursuit of nuclear weapons are, Kedar said.

Kedar believes that Middle Eastern culture can help explain why the Saudis declined to join and become a second-class member in comparison to the first class veto-wielding members of the Council: US, Russia, UK, France and China.

“A Saudi will not accept second-class membership. He would rather remain on the outside because his honor is more important to him than anything else,” Kedar said.

Kedar told The Jerusalem Post that if Russia and China were to veto Saudi initiatives, the Saudis would get embarrassed because their vote was not as important, and that would put them in a shameful position.

“I don’t think the Saudis are thinking about the national interest. What you understand as the national interest, they think about as the family interest,” he said, pointing out that if the al-Saud family could benefit from sitting on the Council, they would do it.

The Saudis, he said, calculate that the damage caused by joining is greater than the benefits they could gain.

Brandon Friedman, a lecturer at Tel Aviv University and a researcher at its Moshe Dayan Center for Middle Eastern and African Studies, told the Post that he believes the Saudis are registering their dissatisfaction at the UN for not stopping the slaughter of Sunni Arabs in Syria. The Saudis see things through the prism of the US-Russian agreement of non-intervention, he said.

“It is hard to overstate how upset the Saudis were with that decision,” Friedman said.