Archive for October 16, 2013

Iran dictates Khamenei’s “fatwa” as basis for nuclear negotiations. US fails to update Israel on Geneva talks

October 16, 2013

Iran dictates Khamenei’s “fatwa” as basis for nuclear negotiations. US fails to update Israel on Geneva talks.

DEBKAfile Exclusive Report October 15, 2013, 7:56 PM (IDT)
Iranian delegate Abbas Araghchi to Geneva nuclear talks

Iranian delegate Abbas Araghchi to Geneva nuclear talks

The Iranian negotiators arrived in Geneva Tuesday, Oct. 15, armed with inflexible positions verging on all-or-nothing for the talks with the six powers in Geneva on their country’s nuclear program.

The most important step for an accord, said Iran’s Deputy Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi, was for the powers to accept the Supreme Leader’s 2006 fatwa banning the development of nuclear weapons.

debkafile’s Iranian sources note that although President Barack Obama cited this “fatwa,’ it was issued as a propaganda ploy with no binding religious value. The Iranian tactic is to use this “edict” to force the six powers (five permanent UN Security Council members plus Germany) to bow to Ayatollah Ali Khamenei’s authority and accord him equal status as the leader of a world power.
The Iranian team started the two-day meeting with a PowerPoint presentation, but then said the details of the proposals presented were “confidential.”
The other delegations agreed to this, although to say they were disappointed is an understatement. They were bowled over by the four Iranian stipulations:

1. The world powers must accept Iran’s right to enrich uranium without limitations. All the enrichment sites at Fordo and Natanz and the Arak heavy water plant under construction for plutonium production will remain in place.
2.  All sanctions on the Iranian economy whether imposed by the UN Security Council, the US or Europe must be removed at once.

3.  Iran guarantees to provide transparency and accept the supervision of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) but rejects snap inspections.
4. Khamenei’s “fatwa” is the first step towards an agreement with the world powers.

At the end of the first day of talks, EU foreign policy executive Catherine Ashton, who chairs the Geneva conference, took the Iranian negotiator Araghchi aside and told him to bring to the table more serious proposals.

Up until Tuesday night, the Obama administration had not relayed a single word on the Geneva proceedings to Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu, who was waiting in Jerusalem for a promised update.
His response to Iran’s arrogant intransigence at the Geneva talks and the fact that he was kept in the dark was not long in coming.
Addressing a Knesset session marking the 40th anniversary of the Yom Kippur war, Tuesday afternoon, the prime minister said: One lesson Israel learned from the Yom Kippur war was “never disallow the option of a preemptive strike a priori.” While this option may not meet all situations, it deserves careful and earnest consideration.
Netanyahu went on to say: The potential international reaction to such an attack is of less consequence than the price in blood Israel is apt to pay from a future “strategic blow” and the necessity to hit back.

US and Iran hold bilateral meeting in Geneva

October 16, 2013

US and Iran hold bilateral meeting in Geneva | The Times of Israel.

US State Department official describes the one-hour conference as ‘useful’; Obama administration doesn’t expect overnight breakthrough

October 16, 2013, 12:28 am
Delegates from the P5+1 and Iran meet in Geneva, at the start of two days of talks regarding Tehran's nuclear program, Tuesday, October 15, 2013 (photo credit: AP/Fabrice Coffrini)

Delegates from the P5+1 and Iran meet in Geneva, at the start of two days of talks regarding Tehran’s nuclear program, Tuesday, October 15, 2013 (photo credit: AP/Fabrice Coffrini)

Deputy US Secretary of State Wendy Sherman held a meeting Tuesday with her Iranian counterpart Abbas Araghchi on the sidelines of nuclear negotiations between the P5+1 and Iran in Geneva, a State Department official confirmed Tuesday.

The meeting lasted for approximately one hour, according to Israel Radio, and was scheduled in advance amid the recent diplomatic rapprochement between the two nations.

The US official described the talks as “useful,” but did not offer any details regarding the topics covered.

“As had been expected, Under Secretary Sherman and members of the US delegation held a bilateral meeting with Iranian Deputy Foreign Minister Araghchi and members of the Iranian delegation tonight, as the Iranians are doing with a number of delegations during these talks,” the senior State Department official was quoted as saying by the Al-Monitor news agency.

“The discussion was useful, and we look forward to continuing our discussions in tomorrow’s meetings with the full P5+1 and Iran,” he said.

A spokesman for the Iranian delegation told Israel Radio that P5+1 representatives were very impressed with Iran’s presentation earlier in the day, and that “no was speaking about war anymore except for Israel.”

White House Press Secretary Jay Carney told reporters in Washington, “After day one, we are hopeful that we will make progress in Geneva.” However US officials wanted to make clear that “despite the positive signs that we have seen, no one should expect a breakthrough overnight. These are very complicated issues, in some cases very technical issues,” Carney said, according to the Kuwait News Agency.

In a separate briefing, State Department Spokesperson Jen Psaki said, “It certainly is positive that there was enough information to have technical discussions. Those are ongoing, and I suspect we will have more of a readout tomorrow.”

She added, “The issues are very complicated — and we have always said, and it remains the case today, that the Iranians need to follow their language and their words with substantive actions, and that is what the discussion is about right now,” reported KUNA.

Iran sat down with representatives of six world powers on Tuesday, presenting a proposal on how to end a nuclear standoff amid cautious optimism over a possible diplomatic solution.

The Iranian delegation, headed by Foreign Minister Javid Zarif, gave a PowerPoint presentation of its proposal to end the crisis, EU spokesman Michael Mann said from Geneva on Tuesday morning.

Mann added that the atmosphere in the talks, the first since the election of Iranian President Hassan Rouhani, was different from that of the past.

“In previous rounds we did not see significant engagement from Iran,” he said.

The talks are being seen as a key test of Iran’s overtures to the West. The P5+1, comprised of the US, Russia, China, Britain, France and Germany, is eager to see whether Iran’s new style since Rouhani’s election will translate into progress on dispelling concerns over Tehran developing nuclear weapons.

The Associated Press contributed to this report

Déjà vu on Iran?

October 16, 2013

Déjà vu on Iran? | JPost | Israel News.

By ARIEL BEN SOLOMON, REUTERS
10/16/2013 06:53

After Iran presented a PowerPoint presentation in Geneva, outlining a plan for the future of it’s nuclear program, Iranian deputy foreign minister said it is “too soon” to tell if progress had been made. Only time will tell.

European Union foreign policy chief Catherine Ashton (L) speaks with Iranian Foreign Minister

European Union foreign policy chief Catherine Ashton (L) speaks with Iranian Foreign Minister Photo: Reuters

It seems it’s déjà vu all over again.

Iranian Deputy Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi told Reuters on Tuesday that it was too soon to tell if the talks made progress, but that Tehran impressed the negotiators from the P5+1 (US, France, German, China, Britain and Russia) with a PowerPoint presentation titled “Closing an unnecessary crisis, opening new horizons.”

EU foreign policy chief Catherine Ashton’s spokesman, Michael Mann, said there was a sense of “cautious optimism.” This came after she had dinner Monday evening with Iranian Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif.

And so another round of talks begin over the Iranian nuclear program, which is believed to be at the threshold of being able to produce a nuclear weapon.

What can we expect to occur during this round of talks that did not happen before? The sanctions are believed to be a factor in pushing Iran to the negotiating table, but is Iran in such a dire position that it will be willing to give up it prize project – its key to regional dominance and a deterrent against attack? North Korea has been able to withstand international sanctions and pressure on the way to the bomb with a much worse economic situation than Iran. It had an estimated GDP of $40 billion in 2011, a per capita GDP of $1,800, and exports of around $4.7b.

Iran is light years ahead economically. It had an estimated 2012 GDP of $1.016 trillion, a per capita GDP of $13,300, and exports of around $65b.

Meir Javedanfar, a lecturer on Iranian politics at the Interdisciplinary Center Herzliya, told The Jerusalem Post that he does not like the comparison with North Korea because while Iran is led by a dictatorial ruler, it is less a one-man show because Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei needs the backing of various factions, which he gets by buying their loyalty.

“The Iranian Revolutionary Guard are too used to living the good life,” said Javedanfar, adding that its members are not ready to live a poor life.

Asked if Tehran is rushing for a deal, he responded that Iran wants to reach one, but on its own terms by which it gives up something on the margins of its nuclear program in return for the lifting of sanctions.

He does not know how willing Iran will be to compromise, but he does see sanctions and economic pressures putting heavy pressure on the regime.

Michael Doran, a senior fellow at the Saban Center for Middle East Policy at the Brookings Institution, who previously served as a US deputy assistant secretary of defense and a senior director at the National Security Council, wrote in a recent article in Politico that President Barack Obama “should specify a time limit to the negotiations.”

Doran told the Post, “I think the pressure to cut a deal, even a bad deal, will be immense, because the breaking away from the negotiations will be read either as the abject failure of Obama’s policy or as a prelude to war.”

He agrees with those that say the sanctions are causing real economic problems for Iran.

“They are serious and worsening,” he said, adding that it is difficult to gauge “how much pressure the pain of the average person puts on the elite.”

Asked whether he sees the timeframe for negotiations being limited to one year, before the US or Israel attacks, Doran responded that he does not think so, as both sides see an advantage in continuing with negotiations.

“They can string them out for a long time – as we have seen in the past. In fact, I will not be surprised if the negotiations will be interminable,” he said, predicting the possibility of “a series of temporary agreements, with, say, six-month time limits, billed as confidence- building measures.”

Prof. Ze’ev Maghen, an expert on Iran, head of the department of Middle East Studies at Bar-Ilan University and a researcher at the Begin-Sadat Center for Strategic Studies, who also lectures at Shalem College, told the Post that Tehran is not rushing to a deal.

“They are playing the same game they always do, taking advantage of the West’s incredibly deep-seeded need to believe: First they fire off a whiff of what sounds vaguely – and only to the completely untrained ear – like moderation, then, after the unbelievably gullible international community gets all excited, they begin back-tracking, rephrasing, imperceptibly – or even perceptibly – changing their tune, which isn’t that hard, because they never really offered anything substantial in any definitive fashion in the first place,” said Maghen.

The West falls for the same negotiating ploy every time, he said. “It truly boggles the mind.”

In a lecture at a conference held by the Begin-Sadat Center for Strategic Studies last week at Bar-Ilan University, Maghen implied that cultural differences give Iran the advantage in negotiations.

“Iran knows that in the West people say what they think, while in the Middle East, they say the opposite,” he said. “The US has no chance with the Iranians, once they start talking they have already lost.”

And speaking to the Post he asked, even if Iran does rush for a deal, “What kind of deal do you think you are getting? Remember the most recent ‘deal’ that Bashar Assad ‘rushed’ into?” Maghen said that the deal saw Assad forking over all of his chemical weapons for destruction – how do they know that he has revealed to them all the stockpiles? They have Bashar’s word, and Putin’s! “That is the kind of deal that the West will be able to broker with Iran, if at all, and if I were [President Hassan] Rouhani or Khamenei, I would ‘rush’ to it as fast as my legs could carry me,” Maghen said.