Archive for October 11, 2013

Washington is still dreaming

October 11, 2013

Israel Hayom | Washington is still dreaming.

Boaz Bismuth

Could it be that today, too, two years after waking up from the dream of the Arab Spring, the American administration is still struggling to see things clearly? Otherwise, how can one possibly explain Washington’s decision to withhold aid from Egypt or the upcoming renewal of negotiations with Iran, during which the removal of sanctions will be discussed — which is certainly a possibility in the Washington of today.

What else needs to happen for the Americans to finally understand what region we live in, and how there are places in the world where the values and rules that they hold so dearly — they really are positive values by the way — do not necessarily hold sway? Does some prime minister of some “democratic” country need to be kidnapped by his state security apparatus for the light bulb to go on? This too happened yesterday, in Libya, when an armed militia that supports terrorism, which is supposed to ensure the safety of the new democratic administration which is charged with building a strong and stable government, as well as help the U.S. combat terrorism, kidnaps the prime minister from his hotel room? Does it sound like the plot from a Monty Python movie? Well, the reality in our region is wilder than the imagination.

In Egypt, too, American logic has gone napping. The Muslim Brotherhood stole the Tahrir revolution from the liberal youths and from the military. Before all of the institutions in Egypt, including the justice system but primarily the legislature, could sprout beards, in came the army on July 3 to stymie political Islam.

Washington decided to punish, in the name of democracy, the army that protects the peace treaty with us. But this is the situation, and at the very least there is a little more freedom in Egypt even if it is not a democracy, which will continue to be the case just as long as the Muslim Brotherhood does not return to power.

And what shall we say about Iran? What else does Iranian President Hasan Rouhani need to write and say to his people for world in general and the United States in particular to understand that the Iranians are pulling a fast one over all of us? Next week, however, negotiations are scheduled to resume with great hope. It can be assumed that the world powers will exhibit enthusiasm because, after all, talking with the Iranians is in style. Had Rouhani’s U.N. speech been made earlier, today he could have already been named the grand winner of the Nobel Peace Prize, even if he is more interested in winning the prize for nuclear fission.

Aid suspension fuels anti-US sentiment in Egypt

October 11, 2013

Aid suspension fuels anti-US sentiment in Egypt | The Times of Israel.

Military-backed regime, which receives billions from its Arab allies, is unlikely to back down in fight against Islamists

October 11, 2013, 2:19 am
Egypt's interim President Adly Mansour, center, Defense Minister Abdel-Fatah el-Sissi, front row, third left, and other officials pose for a photograph during a visit to the Secretariat of the Armed Forces, part of celebrations marking the 40th anniversary of the start of the 1973 (Yom Kippur) war in which Egyptian forces made initial gains against Israel, Saturday, Oct. 5, 2013 (photo credit: AP)

Egypt’s interim President Adly Mansour, center, Defense Minister Abdel-Fatah el-Sissi, front row, third left, and other officials pose for a photograph during a visit to the Secretariat of the Armed Forces, part of celebrations marking the 40th anniversary of the start of the 1973 (Yom Kippur) war in which Egyptian forces made initial gains against Israel, Saturday, Oct. 5, 2013 (photo credit: AP)

CAIRO (AP) — Washington’s decision to withhold millions of dollars in mostly military aid to Egypt is fueling anti-US sentiment and the perception that Washington supports Mohammed Morsi, the Islamist president the military ousted in a July coup.

That could boost the popularity of the military chief, Gen. Abdel-Fattah el-Sissi, whom the US is trying to pressure to ensure a transition to democracy and ease the fierce crackdown on Morsi’s Muslim Brotherhood.

The aid freeze could also embolden Morsi’s supporters to intensify their campaign of street protests in the belief that the military-backed government is losing the goodwill of its top foreign backer. The protests, met by a fierce response by security forces that has left hundreds dead, have kept the new government from tackling Egypt’s pressing problems after 2 ½ years of turmoil.

Still, Egypt’s military-backed government is unlikely to abandon the road map it announced when Morsi was removed in a July 3 coup — to amend the nation’s Islamist-tilted constitution and put the changes to a nationwide vote before the end of the year, and hold parliamentary and presidential ballots in early 2014.

“Egypt is not so desperate that it needs to compromise on its political agenda,” the US-based global intelligence firm, Stratfor, wrote this week.

“The United States will be the one to eventually readjust to the old reality of backing unpopular regimes that can preserve US influence in the Nile River Valley.”

Warnings that Washington might cut off aid were met with a defiant response in the Egyptian media.

“Let American aid go to hell,” screamed the banner headline of Thursday’s edition of Al-Tahrir, an independent daily that is a sworn critic of the Brotherhood and the United States.

Egyptian newspapers and television have for weeks taken a deeply hostile line toward the United States, portraying Washington as unhappy to see Morsi and his Muslim Brotherhood lose power and lambasting it for allegedly meddling in Cairo’s affairs.

The US announced it was freezing hundreds of millions of dollars in aid, most of it meant for the armed forces, as a show of displeasure over Morsi’s ouster and the subsequent crackdown on his Muslim Brotherhood and other Islamist allies. Washington said the aid would be restored if “credible progress” was made toward setting up an inclusive, democratically elected government.

In its announcement Wednesday, the US State Department did not provide a dollar amount of what was being withheld, most of it linked to military aid, but officials in Washington said it included 10 Apache helicopters at a cost of more than $500 million, M1A1 tank kits and Harpoon anti-ship missiles.

The US also is withholding $260 million in cash assistance to the government. The US had already suspended the delivery of four F-16 fighter jets and canceled biennial US-Egyptian military exercises.

In Egypt’s first official reaction, the Foreign Ministry said the US move raised questions about Washington’s commitment to supporting the Arab nation’s security goals at a time when it is facing terrorist challenges.

That was a reference to a burgeoning insurgency by Islamic militants, some with al-Qaida links, in the strategic Sinai Peninsula, as well as scattered attacks in other parts of the country.

In its statement, the Foreign Ministry said Cairo was keen to maintain good relations with Washington, but will independently decide its domestic policies. It also said Egypt will work to secure its “vital needs” on national security, a thinly veiled threat that it would shop elsewhere for arms and military hardware.

One official said the military was considering stripping US warships of preferential treatment in transiting the Suez Canal or curbing use of Egypt’s air space by US military aircraft. The official spoke on condition of anonymity because he was not authorized to discuss the issue with the media.

Cairo has built close ties with Washington in the 34 years since Egypt became the first Arab nation to sign a peace treaty with Israel. The aid has long been seen as Washington’s reward for Egypt’s commitment to peace after it fought four wars against Israel between 1948 and 1973.

The Egyptian military may have gained the most from those close relations, using $1.3 billion annually to replace its aging Soviet-era arms and warplanes with high-tech American weapon systems, state of the art jet-fighters, Apache gunships and battlefield tanks. Over the years, thousands of Egyptian officers from all branches of the military traveled to the United States for training or to attend military schools.

The biennial war games, codenamed “Bright Star,” gave the two militaries large-scale human contact in a simulated battlefield and in 1991, Egyptian troops fought alongside the Americans as part of the US-led coalition that drove Iraqi forces out of Kuwait.

El-Sissi, a career infantry officer who attended the US War Academy, has credited the United States for its huge role in modernizing the Egyptian military over the past three decades.

In a three-part interview published this week in a Cairo daily, he said he appreciated the dilemma the Obama administration found itself in after Morsi’s ouster, having to carefully navigate between respect for US laws on aid to foreign nations where a democratically elected government is toppled and a reliable ally that has for decades safeguarded its interests in a volatile and strategic region.

But the suspension is unlikely to push him to back down.

The military-backed regime in Egypt enjoys the support of key Arab nations, including ones with deep pockets like Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates. These allies have poured billions of dollars into Egypt’s anemic coffers and are likely to continue to do so to win the common fight against Islamists.

The 58-year-old el-Sissi, who has not ruled out a presidential run in elections due next year, stands to gain more popularity at home. In a country where anti-US sentiment runs high, mostly over Washington’s perceived bias in support of Israel, anyone seen to be standing up to the United States gains in popularity.

Already el-Sissi is being widely compared to the late charismatic president Gamal Abdel-Nasser, whose socialist-leaning rule and tense relations with Washington earned him near divine status among Egyptians and fellow Arabs.

In contrast, Hosni Mubarak, Egypt’s toppled autocratic leader, jealously protected and maintained close ties with the US from the time he took office in 1981 and for the next 29 years. One goal of the revolution that toppled him was to end what many Egyptians see as Washington’s undue influence over Cairo’s policies under Mubarak.

“The popular mood does not seem to care” about the aid suspension, said Saad Eddin Ibrahim, a prominent Egyptian scholar who has a dual-Egyptian-US nationality. “As a matter of fact, most Egyptians who can speak out feel, ‘Just as well, we would like to end this Catholic marriage with the US,’” he told Associated Press Television in an interview.

Copyright 2013 The Associated Press.

Iran cancels annual anti-Zionism conference

October 11, 2013

Iran cancels annual anti-Zionism conference | The Times of Israel.

Latest gesture from regime intent on changing its public image garners criticism from hardliners, says report

October 11, 2013, 1:22 am
Then-presidential candidate Hassan Rouhani waves from a campaign bus in the western city of Sanandaj, Iran, earlier this year (photo credit: AP/Vahid Salemi)

Then-presidential candidate Hassan Rouhani waves from a campaign bus in the western city of Sanandaj, Iran, earlier this year (photo credit: AP/Vahid Salemi)

Iranian officials have reportedly ordered the cancellation of an annual anti-Zionism conference.

As part of an apparent effort to rebrand the Islamic Republic in post-Ahmadinejad times, the New Horizon Conference, scheduled to take place in November, was cancelled by the Foreign Ministry, reported The Telegraph.

Hardliners in Iran blasted the decision, which they see as another concession on the part of the new government. Iran’s recently elected president, Hassan Rouhani, has made a concerted effort to put a new face on the regime in Tehran. This after eight years of his Holocaust-denying predecessor, Mahmoud Ahmadinejad.

Websites sympathetic to organizers of the conference displayed strings of angry comments, according to the British report: “Have our leaders given in so much to the world that are even afraid of a conference that might hurt Mr Obama’s feelings?” read one post. ”The latest piece from our government’s show of capitulation,” read another.

The event was supposed to feature a former US senator, as well as 63 “overseas contributors,” said the British daily.

In the US last week and in Israel this week, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has been speaking repeatedly to US, European and even Farsi-language media outlets, warning of Iran’s and Rouhani’s duplicity regarding the nuclear issue, and urging the international community not to lift sanctions unless or until Iran is stripped of its “military nuclear” capabilities.

If sanctions on Iran are removed without ensuring a guaranteed end to uranium enrichment, Europe and the rest of the world will face hundreds of nuclear weapons in the hands of a “murderous” regime, Netanyahu said in a series of interviews with European media outlets Thursday.

“When a murderous regime engages in soft diplomacy and uses calming words of peace, but nevertheless continues to acquire immense power — it must be stopped, immediately,” Netanyahu said, according to quotes provided by the Prime Minister’s Office.

“This is the central lesson of the 20th century. It’s also the central lesson of North Korea. If [the Iranian regime] is not stopped immediately, there won’t be just two bombs pointed toward you [the Europeans], but 200. Stop it now while you’re in a strong position to do so,” he exhorted.

The interviews, timed ahead of next week’s new round of talks in Geneva between the P5+1 powers and Iran over its rogue nuclear program, were conducted with Germany’s Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung and ARD TV, France’s Le Monde and France 24, and the UK’s Financial Times and Sky TV.

Haviv Rettig Gur contributed to this report.

Electromagnetic pulse weaponry: Boeing’s CHAMP and Israel’s jammer grenades

October 11, 2013

Electromagnetic pulse weaponry: Boeing CHAMP video and jammer grenades – Army Technology.

Taking inspiration from science-fiction, the development of electromagnetic pulse-like weapons is about to jolt into life. Liam Stoker profiles Boeing’s recently tested CHAMP missile and finds out how an Israeli grenade has been engineered to obliterate all communications without causing any loss of life.


The Counter-electronics High-powered Microwave Advanced Missile Project may “mark a new era in modern warfare”. Image courtesy of Boeing.


The rampant modernisation of armed forces across the globe has, unfortunately, also served to advance the technological capabilities of terrorists.

“As the black market equips terrorist organisations with advanced means of destruction, the world’s armies have had to respond.”

As the black market equips terrorist organisations with increasingly advanced means of destruction, the world’s armies have had to respond in kind.

While advances have obviously been made in the means of killing machines, armed forces have also seen the development of new and emerging methods of prevention, most notably in the manner of electromagnetic pulse (EMP) weapons.

Once a cornerstone of futuristic science-fiction, the EMP proposes the ability knock out enemy systems over a large scale, without causing widespread destruction and the cost of civilian lives.

Although EMPs have been in various stages of production and testing for many years, the technology has now been refined to such an extent that targeted weaponry has now come to the fore. Promising to knock out enemy technology while saving that of nearby hospitals or friendly troops, the ability to direct EMPs, as demonstrated by devices like Boeing’s CHAMP, holds the potential to revolutionise modern warfare.

High-power, low collateral

On 16 October 2012, Boeing’s secretive Phantom Works, in association with the US Air Force Research Laboratory Directed Energy Directorate, conducted the first test launch of its experimental Counter-electronics High-powered Microwave Advanced Missile Project (CHAMP).

“The EMP proposes the ability knock out enemy systems over a large scale, without causing widespread destruction.”

While the involved technology may not be, the premise of the missile is relatively simple; to remotely disable enemy systems with minimal collateral damage. Devices such as electromagnetic pulse bombs threaten to affect a large area and remain indiscriminate in doing so, putting at risk hospitals and other buildings that offer crucial services to innocent civilians. The CHAMP works by directing a precise beam of high-energy microwaves at the target building, disabling the electronics inside within seconds.

Boeing reported the results of the successful test, in which the missile was fired before disabling computers in target buildings. The missile flew for an hour and targeted seven buildings, disrupting computers while limiting collateral damage. Upon completion, the missile was flown to an undisclosed location before returning to Earth.

A video released by Boeing to accompany the news of the successful test indicates the CHAMP’s potential use inside bustling cities with targets surrounded by costly collateral. With the US coming under increasing criticism regarding the impact of pre-emptive strikes on innocent civilians, CHAMP could represent a marked change of strategy, with Boeing Phantom Works’ CHAMP programme manager Keith Coleman stating its potential to “mark a new era in modern warfare”.

“In the near future, this technology may be used to render an enemy’s electronic and data systems useless even before the first troops or aircraft arrive,” added Coleman.

Making the jammer portable

On a much smaller scale, but bearing a similar ethos, comes Netline Communications Technologies’ Portable Jammer Packs. The Israel-based company has produced one of the smallest jammers ever made, roughly the size of a hand-thrown grenade, responding to a request for a portable jammer that could be used by elite units and Special Forces when carrying out an operation in urban spaces.

“The CHAMP works by directing a precise beam of high-energy microwaves at the target building, disabling the electronics inside.”

Weighing approximately 2.5lbs, the device can be thrown into an area or building to suppress IEDs and block specific channels before an intrusion, handing a battlefield advantage to its operator. Such an advantage is currently unmet, as contemporary devices are either too large to be manoeuvred into tight spaces, or are indiscriminate in the electronics they disrupt.

Electronic fratricide, or radar jamming friendly fire, has been recorded as a major problem in Afghanistan, with radar jammers used to prevent the remote detonation of bombs disrupting communication disrupting operations at the nation’s main air base.

The device is initiated by the operator pulling a safety catch, much the same as a hand grenade, before being thrown into the desired area. When deployed, the device uses electrons to disrupt nearby communications devices using channels, with the device capable of being pre-programmed to block any specific channels.

These can include remote IED triggers like rigged cellular phones, a common ploy used in urban warzones such as Iraq and Afghanistan. After use, the device can simply be picked up, recharged and reprogrammed for use in other combat missions.

Miniaturised, but just as effective

The developers did, however, have to work around some critical issues in order to ensure the device remained combat-able. In order to keep the device small enough to be hand-held, existing jamming modules have been miniaturised and antennas printed upon circuit boards inside the grenade.

The system was also cushioned with rubber in order to stop the impact dislodging any important circuitry, and heat-absorbing elements were added to the internal battery compartment to prevent overheating during extended use.

Portable Jammer Packs

The Israel-based company has produced one of the smallest jammers ever made. Image courtesy of Netline.


Both Boeing’s CHAMP and Netline’s JMPs are, perhaps regrettably for soldiers currently in action, still in the developmental stage, but represent a change in the attitude of research and development engineers.

The ‘kill at all cost’ attitude that led to the development of indiscriminate ammunitions such as the cluster bomb has gone, replaced with a need to hone the targeting capabilities to reduce collateral damage. With weaponry like CHAMP and JMPs in the development pipeline, the risk of conducting missions in the direct vicinity of civilians could be about to fall.

The 100% Fatwa-Compliant Iranian EMP Nuclear Weapon

October 11, 2013

The 100% Fatwa-Compliant Iranian EMP Nuclear Weapon – Op-Eds – Israel National News.

Published: Tuesday, January 15, 2013 9:40 PM

Syria Has Non-nuke EMP Bombs

October 11, 2013

Syria Has Non-nuke EMP Bombs – Op-Eds – Israel National News.

Published: Friday, October 11, 2013 8:11 AM
Sometimes you need to spend billions to unearth supreme strategic military secrets. Other times, self-intoxicated leaders let the cat out of the bag.

Mark Langfan

On 3 March 1917, German Foreign Minister Arthur Zimmerman blurted out, “I cannot deny it.  It is true.” Zimmerman had just admitted that as a German gambit to keep America “busy,” Germany had secretly offered Mexico funding to attack America, and regain Texas and virtually America’s entire Southwest.

In no small part due to Zimmerman’s admission, America entered the war against Germany the next month, April 1917.

On 26 September 2013, Syrian president Bashar Assad said that Syria possesses “more advanced weaponry, which can serve as a deterrent, and blindside Israel within seconds.”  Loose lips sink ships.

Sometimes you need to spend billions to unearth supreme strategic military secrets.  Other times, self-intoxicated leaders like Zimmerman articulate a casus belli of Germany against America in World War I.

Today, Assad gives a game-changing military secret to Israel more valuable than rubies.  By letting slip that Syria could “blindside” Israel, Assad admitted Syria likely possesses non-nuclear, conventional Electro-Magnetic Pulse (EMP) weapons. The ramifications of a conventional EMP attack on Israel apply not only from Syria, but also, most critically, from any Palestinian Arab “demilitarized” state.

(I have previously discussed nuclear EMP weapons in my article, “The 100% Fatwa-Compliant Iranian EMP NuclearWeapon.” (/Articles/Article.aspx/11551#.Uk4umDK9KK0))

As explained in previous articles, a nuclear EMP bomb is merely a regular nuclear weapon which is ignited 50 kilometers above the earth where they don’t kill people but kill electronics, instead of 1-5 kilometers above the ground where it would kill many people.  Non-nuclear EMP bombs are microwave-emitting weapons which electronically fry a much smaller electronic kill radius than a nuclear EMP bomb would.

But, a conventional EMP bomb has the same end result in that it totally destroys any electronics in a given target zone.  The reason I hadn’t raised this issue previously is because it is the likeliest critical element to any possible strike on Iran.  But since Assad let the cat out of the bag, it must now be discussed openly.

No one can describe non-nuclear conventional EMPs better than its maker the Boeing Company.   On 22 October 2012, Boeing released a press release http://www.boeing.com/Features/2012/10/bds_champ_10_22_12.html, and video that explained conventional EMP weapons as follows:

“A recent weapons flight test in the Utah desert may change future warfare after the missile successfully defeated electronic targets with little to no collateral damage.

Boeing and the U.S. Air Force Research Laboratory (AFRL) Directed Energy Directorate, Kirtland Air Force Base, N.M., successfully tested the Counter-electronics High-powered Microwave Advanced Missile Project (CHAMP) during a flight over the Utah Test and Training Range.

CHAMP, which renders electronic targets useless, is a non-kinetic alternative to traditional explosive weapons that use the energy of motion to defeat a target.

During the test, the CHAMP missile navigated a pre-programmed flight plan and emitted bursts of high-powered energy, effectively knocking out the target’s data and electronic subsystems. CHAMP allows for selective high-frequency radio wave strikes against numerous targets during a single mission.

‘This technology marks a new era in modern-day warfare,’ said Keith Coleman, CHAMP program manager for Boeing Phantom Works. ‘In the near future, this technology may be used to render an enemy’s electronic and data systems useless even before the first troops or aircraft arrive.’”

It is entirely feasible, if not highly probable, that Syria possesses such a conventional EMP weapon.  How Syria could deliver the weapon to Israel’s electronic soft-underbelly is another question.  But leaving the question of delivery aside for the moment, the real question is: how does this effect Israel’s strategic equation?

Apart from other aspects, the most worrisome effect would be if Israel attempted to strike Iran’s nuclear facilities.  Such a sophisticated weapon in Syria is likely under the control of Iran’s al Quds forces in Syria.  And, it would likely be used as a second-strike against Israel if Israel attacked. A non-nuclear counter strike against Israel when Israel is in the midst of attacking Iran could bring Israel a grievous military catastrophe.

Therefore, it now becomes a military necessity that Assad is liquidated before any Israeli attack on Iran proceeds.  By Israel’s supplying the rebels with critical real-time intelligence of the locations of Assad’s weapons’ depots, and an unlimited amount of untraceable small caliber bullets (preferably 7.62x39mm Kalash rounds), Assad will crumble and crumble fast.

But the most dramatic threat posed by a non-nuclear conventional EMP bomb is not from Syria, it’s from the “demilitarized” Palestinian Arab State that Tzipi Livni is concocting for Israel’s future.  The reason being, with absolute Israeli military control of all goods coming into that area and absolute military control over the Samarian mountains facing Tel Aviv, it will be impossible to keep out the electronic parts necessary for the Palestinian Arabs to make such a conventional EMP bomb.

They wouldn’t need a “delivery system” because the EMP bomb would have already been “delivered” to striking range of Israel’s electronic soft-underbelly, Tel Aviv.  The Palestinian Arabs could then conventionally first-strike decapitate Israel’s entire military force structure and electronic system as a prelude to a second wave attack by Iranian or Arab missiles or armies.  The Kirya (Israel’s “Pentagon” in Tel Aviv) would be electronically toasted from the word “go.”  All of Israel’s anti-missile, air defense and mobilization systems would be paralyzed from the very first second of a Muslim war of decimation.  It would be lights-out, game-over for Israel before the war against Israel even began.

A Palestinian Arab state no longer threatens Israel with chemical Katyushas, it now threatens Israel with annihilation by EMP bombs.  Unless Israel short-circuits its suicidal “peace” process, a Palestinian CHAMP EMP bomb could instantly turn Israel’s electronic defense into a clump of burning wiring.

American capitulation to Iran?

October 11, 2013

American capitulation to Iran? | JPost | Israel News.

10/10/2013 22:36

Finally, could all this be a prelude to implementation of Obama’s grand vision of nuclear thinning-out and global disarmament?

Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu and US President Barack Obama.

Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu and US President Barack Obama. Photo: JASON REED / REUTERS

Ignoring Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu’s demand for complete dismantlement of Iranian uranium enrichment facilities and no premature let-up on sanctions, high-ranking European diplomats who were here in Israel this week indicated that they will settle for far less than that.

They did not rule out reaching an interim agreement with Tehran that would ease some of the international sanctions in exchange for restrictions on that country’s uranium enrichment and increased monitoring of its nuclear facilities.

Intelligence Minister Dr. Yuval Steinitz has called the proposals cosmetic and irrelevant, since the reported Iranian willingness to limit uranium enrichment to 20 percent is insufficient now that Iran has thousands of centrifuges operating that can enrich uranium at a faster pace than before.

Israel doesn’t oppose a diplomatic solution to the crisis, Netanyahu and Steinitz have said, as long as Iran is left without the capacity to build a nuclear bomb. And with the Iranian economy 18 months away from collapse, says Steinitz, now is not the time to ease the sanctions regime but rather to press Tehran to the limit.

The talks with Iran that the P5+1 powers begin next week in Geneva are dangerous on four levels.

First, deliberations over any agreement are likely to drag out for months through the winter, giving the Iranians time to surreptitiously enrich even more uranium and to continue their explosives-testing work.

Second, according to reports, the emerging understanding with Iran would leave the country’s nuclear development facilities intact, instead of dismantling them. This allows the Iranians to continue refining their nuclear skills. Even at low levels of enrichment (3.5 and 5%, which are not useful for a bomb) this provides a framework with which Tehran can bypass Western restrictions and hoodwink Western inspectors.

After all, Iran has clandestinely crossed every redline set by the West over the past 20 years – putting nuclear plants online, building heavy water facilities, refining uranium, working on explosive triggers and warheads, and generally breaching all its obligations under the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty – and has gotten away with it.

Consequently, Israel will accept nothing less than a complete dismantlement of the Iranian nuclear program, Netanyahu said at the UN last week, including an end to all uranium enrichment; removal of all stockpiles of enriched uranium; dismantlement of the infrastructure for a nuclear breakout capability, including the underground facility near Qom and the advanced centrifuges in Natanz; and a halt to the construction of the heavy water reactor in Arak aimed at the production of plutonium.

Any deal that scales back sanctions and allows Iran to keep operating its advanced nuclear development facilities even at a low level, is a fatal bargain. So says a new study by Simon Henderson of the Washington Institute and Olli Heinonen, a former deputy director-general of the International Atomic Energy Agency. Centrifuge technology is easy to hide, and reaching low-level enrichment is 75% of the work toward a bomb, they warn.

Barack Obama claims that his policy is prevention of an Iranian bomb, but he seems to have backed away from the commitment to stop Iran from gaining the capability to produce nuclear weapons. It seems that the P5+1 group is prepared to let Tehran rest at the point where it is several turns of the screwdriver away from the assembly of a bomb.

Israel, of course, is not prepared to live with that.

WORSE STILL is the nagging suspicion that Obama’s emerging deal with the Iranians involves tacit recognition of their hegemony in the Gulf region – which is what Tehran is truly after. This was the implicit warning brought to Israel early this year by one of America’s top experts on Iran, Dr. Amin Tarzi, director of Middle East studies at Marine Corps University in Quantico. “Iran wants nuclear capacity and a warhead,” he told the Begin-Sadat Center for Strategic Studies, “for imperial purposes, to prove that Iran is a special and great country, and to be able to dominate the Gulf region and the broader Middle East. Tehran is unlikely to use a nuclear warhead, but it wants to have one in order to achieve the status of a regional superpower, to be an equal partner with the US in dominating the Middle East.”

Could it be that Obama is prepared for a seismic shift in US alliances in the region, moving from partnership with the muchweakened princes of Saudi Arabia to a “grand civilizational bargain” with the ayatollahs of Iran? Might he quietly acquiesce in Iran’s climb to near-nuclear status in exchange for understandings with Tehran on division of power in the region? Keep the American withdrawal from Iraq in mind. Iraq controlled by the Shi’ites (and heavily influenced by Iran) could easily become a bigger oil exporter than Saudi Arabia.

Large segments of the academic, diplomatic and defense establishments in Washington and New York don’t see Iran as an oversized threat to America. They view Iran as a rational actor, and are seeking a “Nixonian moment” in which Washington reaches strategic accommodation with Tehran, as it did with Beijing.

The soft signals and acquiescent music coming from prominent US think tanks have been evident over the past two years.

Washington wags close to the Obama administration, like the Center for a New American Security and the Atlantic Council, have been seeding the American diplomatic and political discourse with messages of capitulation to Iran, and paving the way for a climb-down from Obama’s declared policy of halting Iran’s nuclear drive.

One of the leading realist theorists of the past century, Prof. Kenneth N. Waltz of Columbia University’s Saltzman Institute of War and Peace Studies (who died a few months ago), actually argued in his last published article that Iran should get the bomb! It would create “a more durable balance of military power in the Middle East,” he wrote in the establishment journal Foreign Affairs.

Finally, could all this be a prelude to implementation of Obama’s grand vision of nuclear thinning-out and global disarmament? He could yet turn to the Russians, Chinese, French, Indians, Pakistanis, Iranians, and yes – to Israel, too, with the demand to disarm. Israel has understandings with the US about its nuclear policy, originally reached by Richard Nixon and Golda Meir and reportedly reaffirmed in 1998 (by Bill Clinton and Netanyahu) and in 2009 (by Obama and Netanyahu). But in the context of grand bargain with the Iranians (and by extension, with much of the Muslim world), might Israel’s nuclear status be targeted for troublesome attention? I say: Beware Obama’s emerging understandings with Iran. Heed his long-term goals of resetting America’s relations with the Muslim world, and don’t underestimate his willingness to undercut current allies (including Israel and Saudi Arabia) in the process.