WarSclerotic

Israel Hayom | Between the sublime and the ridiculous.

Boaz Bismuth

Report: Russia to supply S-300 anti-aircraft missiles to Iran | JPost | Israel News.

According to Russian daily Kommersant, Moscow has also agreed to build another nuclear reactor in Bushehr; Iran to pay $800 million for missile batteries.

Obama-Putin deal didn’t stop at chemical Syria: US eases sanctions on nuclear Iran.

Iranian President Hassan Rouhani

Iran, and not just Russia and Syria, is taking advantage of President Barack Obama’s decision to refrain from military force against Syria to collect a shower of diplomatic and political dividends.

The new Iranian president Hassan Rouhani announced Tuesday that the coming meeting of the General Assembly opening in New York later this month “may prove the perfect setting to reignite talks about the nation’s nuclear program.“ The US Treasury Department accordingly lifted a string of sanctions restricting humanitarian and athletic exchanges between US and Iranian NGOs and environmental projects, as a counter-gesture of good will.
Washington was not put off when that comment proved to be an exercise in image-burnishing for the benefit of the West. That same day, the Iranian president declared his country would not give up “one iota of its nuclear capabilities.”

debkafile’s Iranian sources disclose that the posturing on all sides provided the façade for the secret exchange of messages between Washington, Tehran, Moscow and Damascus. They focused first on a Russian pledge to bring Assad’s chemical arsenal under international control and destroyed. This was followed by Tehran consenting to engage in direct dialogue with Washington when the next UN General Assembly session opens in New York on September 23.
Rouhani, who has consistently refused to enter into direct talks with Washington on his government’s nuclear program, said Friday, Sept. 6: “Initial steps in the future of nuclear talks may be taken in New York and then these talks will be pursued by the Group 5 + 1.”

debkafile: For President Obama, the two issues – the disposal of Syria’s chemical weapons and resolution of the nuclear controversy with Iran – were closely interwoven in his quiet exchanges with Vladimir Putin, which emphasized the diplomatic, non-military route.
The Russian leader appears to have assured Obama that an agreed formula for defusing the Syrian chemical weapons issue without military force would provide the key to progress in nuclear talks with Iran.
Our Iranian sources report that Tehran was in on all stages of the discreet Obama-Putin discussions on Syria: High-ranking Iranian officials were present in Damascus and Moscow throughout, and points of agreement were brought to Tehran for approval.
Full details of how this four-handed game was conducted and details of the deals struck between the US, Russia and Iran, will be revealed for the first time in the next issue of DEBKA Weekly out Friday, Sept. 13.

Terror States.

Dr. Shmuel L. Gordon. Col. (Ret) IAF

11/9/2013

EMERGENCY services are responding to a simulated terrorist attack – flicker/West Midlands Police

The History of the last three Centuries has defined only one type of actors in the international environment – sovereign states with identified and recognized borders, compliant with international law and covenants, and responsible to their deeds. During the last 50 years was developed another type of actors, i.e. Guerilla and terror organizations that lack basic attributes of state and comprised some amorphous characteristics that enable them to strengthen in the modern world order, and at the same time they try to abolish it.

At the beginning of the 21st Century, a new entity in the international environment has been evolving. That entity encompasses terror groups or organizations that govern a state. Consequently, the aggressive and cruel characteristics of terror organizations unite with the qualities of sovereign state enjoy protection of the international law and at the same time ignore it in seeking their goals, regarding internal struggles and outside conflicts. Afghanistan under the Taliban control had been the first model of Terror State.

Its temporary success enabled other terror organizations to adapt that concept to other regions. But dealing with theoretical issues has little to contribute to cope with a most dangerous challenge of the Free World; i.e., Terror States. The Middle East encounters clouds of threats of a revolution that may evolve several terror nations which will be able to conquer most of the Arab nations. Some of them hold the keys for a considerable share of the world’s energy reserves.

Syria, after a plausible fall of President Assad’s regime, assumed to be the first candidate for a terror states’ alliance. Egypt, if free election will be occurred, supported by illogical and mistaken US pressure, and victory of the Muslim Brothers, will be the second one. The fragile regime Kingdome of Jordan will plausibly fall soon after. Yemen and the Emirates will not sustain the pressure of terrorism; and it is redundant to mention other candidate nations.

A few years from now an evil nation as Iran will be considered as a relatively moderate one comparing to the terror states. The new entity of the international environment – Terror states are believed to be the worst threat against the values and freedom of the free world, which protects itself by international law and international covenants` While terror states will try to harm and even destroy democracies ignoring any law and moral principles.

In order to prevent that reinforcement of the international terrorism, this process must be cut off at its first stage. The US president, despite his admirable moral concept, has to realize the consequences of initiation of a campaign against Assad’s regime – the first falling block of the shaken wall of Middle Eastern South-Eastern states, The US ability to prevent the fall of other countries to the evil hands of the international terrorism will be degraded significantly.

The United States of America should determine its next step for the long run rather than attack Syria as a result of short-run mistaken considerations.

Rouhani: Limited Time to Resolve Nuclear Dispute – Middle East – News – Israel National News.

Hassan Rouhani

AFP photo

Iran’s president said on Tuesday that the time for resolving Iran’s nuclear dispute with the West was limited, urging the world to seize the opportunity of his election.

“The world must know completely that this period of time for resolving the nuclear issue will not be unlimited. We have a specified period of time,” President Hassan Rouhani, who took office last month, said in a live interview on state television. The comments were carried by the Reuters news agency.

“The world must also use this period of time and this opportunity that our people created in this election. We will also use this opportunity. God willing, I am hopeful we can, step by step, solve this problem,” he added.

Rouhani, who succeeded Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, has pledged moderation in Iran’s foreign and domestic policies and called for “constructive interaction” with the world. At the same time he made it clear, in a speech to clerics earlier Tuesday, that Iran will not give up “one iota” of its nuclear rights.

Rouhani said he would meet with the foreign ministers from some of the six powers – Russia, China, France, Britain, the United States and Germany – when he attends the UN General Assembly in New York this month.

“I believe that if the opposite side has a serious will, the nuclear issue can be resolved in a not very long time,” he said.

“In the nuclear issue, the end of the game must be a win-win game. Win-lose has no meaning,” he added. “We can have a win-win game, we are ready for a win-win game. I think the beginning of this work will start in New York.”

Iran has been engaged in on-off negotiations with major world powers and the United Nations about its nuclear program for more than a decade, and has been subjected to several rounds of UN and Western economic sanctions.

The last round of talks with the big powers – the five permanent members of the U.N. Security Council plus Germany – was held in April in Kazakhstan, before Rouhani’s election but, just like previous rounds, ended with no progress.

Iran’s foreign minister, Mohammad Javad Zarif, and EU foreign policy chief Catherine Ashton are set to meet in New York later this month to discuss restarting negotiations over Iran’s nuclear program.

While the West has said that Rouhani is a moderate, Israel has warned that he is a wolf in sheep’s clothing, particularly when it comes to Iran’s nuclear program.

U.S. Eases Sanctions to Allow Good-Will Exchanges With Iran – NYTimes.com.

By RICK GLADSTONE

¶ The Obama administration on Tuesday eased longstanding restraints on humanitarian and good-will activities between Iran and the United States, including athletic exchanges. It was at least the second American government relaxation of Iranian sanctions this year and came as Iran’s new president, Hassan Rouhani, has signaled his desire to improve relations.

¶ The Treasury Department’s Office of Foreign Assets Control, which oversees the sanctions on Iran, said in a statement that it had cut the bureaucracy for obtaining exemptions in order to expedite the provision of health services, disaster relief, wildlife conservation and human rights projects in the country. Also authorized are “activities related to sports matches and events, the sponsorship of sports players, coaching, refereeing and training, in addition to other activities.”

¶ The Treasury statement said the action, which eliminates requirements for special exemption licenses on a case-by-case basis, reflected what it called “this administration’s commitment to reinforcing ties between the Iranian and American people.”

¶ Advocacy groups welcomed the step. The National Iranian American Council, which is critical of Iran’s government but opposes the sanctions, said it had been working for years to loosen the restraints on humanitarian and athletic exchanges.

¶ “Today’s action is critical in helping prevent broad sanctions from isolating ordinary Iranians and ensuring that humanitarian needs of ordinary people do not fall prey to political disputes between the U.S. and Iranian governments,” the group’s policy director, Jamal Abdi, said in a statement. “In lieu of formal diplomatic relations between the two governments, people-to-people diplomacy and athletic exchanges are crucial for bridging divides between the American and Iranian people.”

¶ The Treasury action came only a few weeks after an Iranian tennis referee, Adel Borghei, hired in May to work at the United States Open, was blocked from taking the job because of sanctions regulations enforced by the Treasury Department. The Akrivis Law Group, a Washington firm that specializes in sanctions law, agreed to represent him and secured a license that enabled him to work after his story had been publicized by the Iranian and American news media.

¶ An Akrivis lawyer, Farhad Alavi, said in a telephone interview that the timing of the Treasury’s easing of the rules “obviously follows on the coattails of the tennis case.”

¶ Most Treasury sanctions concerning Iran in recent years have tightened restrictions as part of a broader American policy to pressure Iran into concessions over its disputed nuclear program. Iran insists the program is peaceful but the West and Israel suspect it is meant to enable Iran to make nuclear weapons.

¶ Last May the Treasury and State Departments lifted sanctions on companies seeking to sell personal communications technology to ordinary Iranians.

¶

Candidly Speaking: America’s isolationism and its implications for Israel | JPost | Israel News.

There is currently a remote possibility that the Russian strategy will succeed in averting US military action by persuading Bashir Assad to hand over his chemical weapons of mass destruction for demolition by the international community.

There is currently a remote possibility that the Russian strategy will succeed in averting US military action by persuading Bashir Assad to hand over his chemical weapons of mass destruction for demolition by the international community.

But even if that happens, President Obama’s vacillating response to the horrors in Syria will still be considered manifestation of the ongoing erosion of America’s superpower role as guardian of the free world against the burgeoning forces of Islamic terrorism.

In the absence of effective presidential leadership, the American people have grown weary of shouldering the burden of policing the world and sending their youngsters to battle extremists in faraway places. Obama’s policies have dramatically revived America’s dormant isolationist inclinations.

This is fortified by the Europeans who, absorbed by post-modern moral relativism, refuse to share the burden and are now barely willing to even symbolically endorse the engagement of the United States in global military initiatives to contain Islamic terror.

Burying their heads in the sand, Western nations seem to deny that jihadism, much like nazism and communism, represents a fundamental threat to Western civilization that if not confronted, will ultimately wreak havoc in their own neighborhoods.

The procrastination and unpredictability of President Obama has already convinced US allies, including the so-called moderate Arab states, that America has become a paper tiger. Understandably, they no longer believe that they can rely on a vacillating, indecisive Commander-in Chief. In their eyes even the ineffective former president Jimmy Carter appears a valiant warrior compared to the dithering Obama.

This attitude is unlikely to change irrespective of whether Congress endorses Obama’s request to punish Assad for gassing his own people.

Even if Congress approves an American strike it will be a limited maneuver neither intended nor likely to produce regime change. It will probably have negligible deterrent effect and may even enable Assad to portray himself as the heroic victor who triumphed against the mighty US.

Israel stands in a difficult position in the midst of the tension. Understandably, it is unwilling to side either with the murderous Assad or the monstrous al-Qaida terrorists now dominant among the Syrian rebels. There is little doubt that we would wish a plague on both their houses.

But Israel recognizes that if, after Obama’s repeated promise to act if Assad crossed the “red lines” and employed chemical weapons, Congress rejects his request for a military response, the weakened president would suffer further humiliation, highlighting US impotence and strengthening the isolationist trends that have already dramatically impacted on American public opinion.

This would have severe negative ramifications on Israel and the entire region and, above all, embolden the Iranians towards attaining their nuclear objective.

Conscious of the overriding Iranian issue, Israel does not wish to see Congress humiliating the president in this context. But it is also highly concerned neither to become embroiled in the Syrian civil war nor lay itself open to accusations of dragging America into a new conflict.

Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu is to be credited for acting with diplomatic astuteness. He has muzzled his traditionally outspoken and irresponsible ministers. He has succeeded in walking a diplomatic tightrope in avoiding humiliating Obama while simultaneously sending a clear message to the Syrians that were they to implement their threats to attack Israel, we would not remain passive as we did during the Iraq war.

American Jewish organizations find themselves in a bind. In a bizarre turn of events, the Obama administration has turned to Israel and AIPAC to lobby Congress on its behalf. The major American Jewish organizations reluctantly responded positively and urged Congress to endorse the president’s request but are attempting to distinguish this from their traditional pro-Israel lobbying.

However, it is a no-win situation.

Should Congress approve a military strike, they will face accusations of dragging their country into a new conflict. Conversely, should Congress reject Obama, the intervention will result in severely damaging the standing of the Jewish lobby in the American political arena.

As far as Israel is concerned, it is crucial that in conjunction with increasing Islamic fundamentalist threats in the region, we factor into our strategic planning the new US isolationism and European indifference.

We must absorb the reality that we are a people who stand alone and can depend on no one but ourselves to deter our adversaries.

Our greatest concern remains Iran.

If the US and the West are incapable of deterring Iran from developing a nuclear bomb, we will be obliged to make difficult decisions, weigh the diplomatic consequences and consider the practicality and chances of success in initiating independent action.

This must also serve to strengthen our resolve to bury any remaining delusions that we can rely on third parties to guarantee borders or intervene in a crisis in relation to the Palestinians. In this Alice in Wonderland environment, the US and the Western European countries are unlikely to ease pressures on us to make further unilateral concessions.

Even our “friends” are more inclined to focus on the construction of homes in the Jewish suburbs of Jerusalem than on Syrians massacring thousands of their own people.

Therefore, in the foreseeable future, in the absence of Palestinian leaders genuinely committed to peaceful coexistence, it would be insane for us to succumb to global pressures to make further unilateral concessions, ease security or cede additional territories without genuine reciprocity.

At the same time we should take solace in the fact that there are also positive developments that benefit us.

Despite the Obama administration’s retreat toward isolationism, the American people and Congress continue to enthusiastically support Israel. This is of critical importance because, whereas we have never asked the US or any other country to engage in wars on our behalf, the US backing ensures that we retain our edge, with access to the latest technological military equipment, and enables us to defend ourselves and effectively deter the barbarians at our gates.

This also makes it unlikely that US would totally abandon us in the diplomatic and political arena, and likely to continue acting as a barrier against those seeking to impose sanctions against us.

Despite the active presence of jihadists among our neighbors, at a time when the military power of some of our most committed adversaries has dramatically eroded, our military strength is at an all-time high. This significantly diminishes the threat of a conventional war of aggression against us. In fact, the IDF today is capable of deterring all our adversaries combined. We must of course continue to strengthen and develop our military superiority.

Another important positive development for Israel has been the Egyptian revolt against the Muslim Brotherhood regime, preventing the rise of an Islamic totalitarian dictatorship.

This represents a body blow to Hamas, effectively an extension of the Muslim Brotherhood and considered as such by the new Egyptian regime. It has already resulted in military action against the jihadists in Sinai, lessening a major threat to security on Israel’s southern border.

Overall, when one balances the positive developments within the regional turmoil, it is clear that despite frequent gloomy and pessimistic chatter, we can regard Israel’s position as one of strength.

Remembering 9/11 | JPost | Israel News.

Gradually, like Communism, Islamist extremism would fade away.

Analysis: The Syrian deal – More bad than good for Israel | JPost | Israel News.

Obama promised Putin not to strike Syria after scrapping its chemical arsenal. Russian arms for Assad.

Secret detente on Syria

President Barack Obama’s two climb-downs on a US strike against Syria over its use of chemical weapons are turning out to be part of a deal which he forged secretly with Russian President Vladimir Putin. Obama is presenting it as a US-Russian accord for stripping Bashar Assad of his chemical arsenal, while Putin is using it as an expedient for saving the Assad regime in Damascus. Both are ready to sacrifice the Syrian rebel movement to their détente.

debkafile’s intelligence sources disclose that Moscow is pushing for more than a US pledge to back off using force against Syria, demanding that Washington also refrain from diplomatic action against the Assad regime.
The result was a major battle which forced the UN Security Council’s closed-door emergency session scheduled for Tuesday night, Sept. 10 to be postponed without a new date.
The French wanted to table a tough, binding resolution placing Syria’s chemical weapons under international control and a timetable for their destruction spelt out – with “extremely serious” consequences for violations including a military option.

Washington warned it would not fall for “stalling tactics.”

Moscow balked, insisting on a declaration – not a binding resolution – in support of international control for the chemical stockpiles – and no sanctions for violations. China and Iran backed the Russian motion.

Addressing a Russian TV Arab broadcast Tuesday, Putin said he had urged Syria to hand over its chemical weapons for them to be destroyed. He added that the handover plan would only work if the US renounced the use of force.
Our sources disclose that in another part of his deal with the Russian president, Obama did not object to Moscow providing the Syrian army with a fresh supply of advanced weapons in substantial quantities to compensate Assad for giving up his chemical arsenal.
Friday, Sept. Moscow announced that the Nikolai Filchenko landing craft heading for the eastern Mediterranean would stop off at the Black Sea port of Novorossiisk to pick up a “special cargo” for Syria. This vessel, say our sources, was to carry the first shipment of the fresh arms supplies Moscow was sending Bashar Assad.
The coming DEBKA Weekly out Friday, Sept. 13, uncovers the full extent of the secret Obama-Putin transaction on Syria, including the two leaders’ secret undertakings.