WarSclerotic

Obama pushes Syrian chemical diplomacy for a nuclear Iran – overriding Israel’s concerns.

Kerry briefs Netanyahu on Syria chemical deal

US President Barack Obama did not wait for the Kerry-Lavrov agreement of Saturday, Sept. 14, for the eradication of Syria’s chemical weapons, to demonstrate its feasibility. The next day, he jumped in to tell Tehran that “there’s the potential for diplomatic solutions to arms standoffs,” in an interview with ABC TV.   

“The Iranians understand that their pursuit of a nuclear weapon is a far larger issue for us than the use of chemical weapons in Syria,” he said. “My suspicion is that the Iranians recognize they shouldn’t draw a lesson that we haven’t struck [Syria] to think we won’t strike Iran.”
But that is exactly what they have understood from the way he backed out of a US military strike on Syria – and so have Moscow and Damascus.

Obama also revealed that he has exchanged letters with the new Iranian president Hassan Rouhani, but did not reveal their content. He added: He (Rouhani) understands the potential for a diplomatic solution to his country’s disputed nuclear program but will not “suddenly make it easy.”
In Jerusalem, US Secretary of State John Kerry was mindful of the torrent of criticism landing on the deal he struck with Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov in Geneva Saturday – both at home and in the Middle East. The Syrian rebels and their backers accuse the US of betraying and ditching them in mid-war.

After meeting Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu for four hours, Kerry came out with a statement that Syrian violations of its commitment under the chemical weapons convention and its reuse of this weapon of mass destruction would make its government liable for a UN Security Council action under Chapter 7 of the UN Charter, which allows military force.
debkafile’s sources note that this phrasing does not appear in the text of the US-Russian accord concluded Saturday or Geneva; not does it match the version of the accord presented by the Russian foreign minister. So a rejoinder from Moscow will likely not be long coming.

In reply to complaints that the chemical accord has done nothing to stop the Syrian civil war and the massive bloodshed now in its third year, Kerry said it was only the first step and diplomacy would continue to be pursued to bring the war to an end.
The US Secretary, who left for Paris after his long meeting with Nentanyahu, said he would be updating four allied foreign ministers on his accord with Lavrov – his British and French and also his Saudi and Turkish opposite numbers. Riyadh and Ankara, like Jerusalem, have so far chosen to keep their doubts and objections quiet.

Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu said alongside Kerry that Syria must be stripped of chemical weapons to make region safer. But for diplomacy to have a chance to work it must be coupled with a credible military threat.

Avigdor Lieberman, Chairman of the Knesset Foreign Affairs and Security Committee, commented that after Damascus submits its inventory of chemical stockpiles and other sites next week, as Kerry has promised, it should be compared with the lists drawn up by Israeli intelligence.

debkafile: This suggestion is naïve. The Syrian inventory will first go to Moscow and after it is confirmed, referred to Washington. The Obama administration will refrain from any action that might torpedo the deal with Moscow at this early stage by questioning Syrian and Russian veracity.

Despite all the words of assurance pouring out of Washington about the credible military option in place both for Syria and Iran, the Obama administration is determined not to let Israel or any other Middle East critic upset its diplomatic momentum – either for Syria’s chemical weapons or Iran’s nuclear drive.

Israel Hayom | Still just words and promises.

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Israel Hayom | Let it be vs. ain’t gonna happen.

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Israel Hayom | Syrian official: We have guarantees strike is off the table.

Obama: Iran knows US ready to hit its nuclear program | The Times of Israel.

Still, US president says, Syrian chemical weapons deal offers a window for diplomatic solution with Tehran

“I think what the Iranians understand is that the nuclear issue is a far larger issue for us than the chemical weapons issue, that the threat… against Israel that a nuclear Iran poses is much closer to our core interests,” Obama said in an interview with ABC. “My suspicion is that the Iranians recognize they shouldn’t draw a lesson that we haven’t struck [the Bashar Assad regime] to think we won’t strike Iran.”

Conversely, Obama added, the Russian-brokered agreement that would see Syria hand over its sizable chemical weapons stockpile was an indication to Tehran that “there is the potential of resolving these issues diplomatically.”

The decision to disarm Syria of its chemical weapons ended weeks of speculation regarding the option of a military strike against Assad’s forces in the wake of a deadly chemical attack on Syrian citizens in August that appeared to transgress a “red line” set down by Obama last year.

In the wake of that decision, the US president came under fire from critics who said opting for a diplomatic solution conveyed a message of American weakness in the region and signaled to Iran that, despite Washington’s statements to the contrary, it could pursue its controversial nuclear program with impunity.

On Sunday Obama said that he had exchanged letters with Iran’s new president, Hasan Rouhani, but that the two had not spoken directly. The US president said he believed Rouhani understood the potential for a diplomatic solution to his country’s disputed nuclear program, but would not “suddenly make it easy.”

“If you have both a credible threat of force, combined with a rigorous diplomatic effort,” Obama said, “… you can strike a deal.”

Obama’s statements were echoed by Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu Sunday after a meeting with US Secretary of State John Kerry in Jerusalem.

“The world needs to ensure that radical regimes don’t have weapons of mass destruction because as we’ve learned once again in Syria, if rogue regimes have weapons of mass destruction, they will use them,” Netanyahu said. “The determination the international community shows regarding Syria will have a direct impact on the Syrian regime’s patron, Iran. Iran must understand the consequences of its continual defiance of the international community, by its pursuit toward nuclear weapons… if diplomacy has any chance to work, it must be coupled with a credible military threat.”

This week, British and Iranian foreign ministers are scheduled to meet in the United Nations building in New York in a step toward reestablishing relations between the two countries that were suspended two years ago.

British Foreign Secretary William Hague and Iranian Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif will hold a private meeting during the UN General Assembly meeting at the end of the month, in a sign of slightly thawing ties between the two countries.

“They will be meeting but we have no further details at this stage,” a Foreign Office spokeswoman told the AFP news agency.

According to the report, Britain first requested a meeting after the election of Rouhani in June, and Tehran agreed.

Relations between the two countries have been on the rocks since the British Embassy in Tehran was stormed in 2011. London maintained that the attack was officially sanctioned.

Iranian Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zari. (screen capture: YouTube/CFR)

Britain is interested in reestablishing ties with Tehran, Prime Minister David Cameron suggested last week, telling members of Parliament about the diplomatic gestures being made to Iran.

“We have effectively reached out to the Iranian government after the recent elections,” Cameron said. “And I have written to President Rouhani, so we are prepared to start trying to have a relationship with them.”

Earlier Sunday, a Twitter account purportedly belonging to Rouhani tweeted that the president would meet with Hague in New York. That information could not be verified.

On November 29, 2011, a mob ransacked the British Embassy in Tehran, injuring several people. The following day Hague announced the closure of the embassy and gave the Iranian ambassador in London, together with his staff, 48 hours to leave the country.

The 68th General Assembly meeting of the United Nations is scheduled to be held between September 24 and October 4.

The Associated Press contributed to this report.

Egypt seizes anti-aircraft missiles in Sinai | The Times of Israel.

Army spokesman says over 300 arrested since start of military operations in July

By Gavriel Fiske September 15, 2013, 6:05 pm

Egyptian army soldiers seen in a watchtower on the border with Egypt in Rafah, southern Gaza Strip, on July 8, 2013. (photo credit: Abed Rahim Khatib/Flash90)

Egyptian military forces have captured a cache of anti-aircraft missiles in the Sinai Peninsula, as well as a collection of Egyptian army uniforms that were used by members of the Hamas terror group, an army spokesman said Sunday.

Since the advent of a large-scale military operation in Sinai after the July ouster of Islamist president Mohammed Morsi, the army has captured 309 people involved in violence and has destroyed more than 154 smuggling tunnels between Gaza and Egypt, army spokesman Ahmed Ali said Sunday, according to Al-Arabiya.

The national security of Egypt is “under threat because of the situation in Sinai,” the spokesman said, adding that the army would “continue operations in Sinai until terrorism is defeated.”

The interim government has a development plan for the peninsula that will restore security for Sinai, Ali said.

On Saturday, the military said it had uncovered a plot to blow up an army base on the Egyptian side of the border, via a detonating wire leading back through a tunnel to Gaza.

Since September 7, the army has been stepping up its assault on Islamist elements in Sinai, killing at least 29. On Friday, helicopter gunships targeted a number of villages in northern Sinai.

On Wednesday, a pair of suicide bombers rammed explosives-laden cars into military targets at the Gaza border, killing at least nine soldiers and wounding 17.

Obama may meet Rouhani at UN this month | The Times of Israel.

Two presidents have exchanged letters; Oman said to be brokering contacts between Washington and Tehran

Iranian President Hasan Rouhani waves from a campaign bus in the western city of Sanandaj, Iran, earlier this year. (photo credit: AP/Vahid Salemi)

In a dramatic warming of ties, US President Barack Obama may meet at the UN later this month with the newly elected Iranian president Hasan Rouhani.

The possibility of a meeting on the sidelines of the UN General Assembly was reported Sunday night by Israel’s Channel 10 news, and by various international news sources including Britain’s Guardian newspaper. It would mark the first face-to-face talks between Iranian and American presidents since Iran’s Islamic Revolution in 1979. There was no official confirmation of the reports.

Britain has confirmed that its foreign secretary, William Hague, will meet at the UN next week with his new Iranian counterpart, Mohammad Javad Zarif. Britain severed ties with Iran in 2011.

In an ABC TV interview Sunday, Obama said that he had exchanged letters with Rouhani, but that the two had not spoken directly. The US president said he believed Rouhani understood the potential for a diplomatic solution to his country’s disputed nuclear program, but would not “suddenly make it easy.”

“If you have both a credible threat of force, combined with a rigorous diplomatic effort,” Obama said, “… you can strike a deal.”

Israel’s Channel 2 news reported Sunday night that Oman has recently been brokering indirect contacts between the US and Iran, and that the US might be prepared to consider an easing of some medical and other sanctions on Iran to help facilitate progress toward a diplomatic resolution over Iran’s rogue nuclear program.

In his comments Sunday, Obama warned Tehran that the new initiative to avert a Western strike in Syria should not be interpreted as a lack of willingness in Washington to pursue a military solution, if necessary, to the ongoing Iranian nuclear standoff.

“I think what the Iranians understand is that the nuclear issue is a far larger issue for us than the chemical weapons issue, that the threat… against Israel that a nuclear Iran poses is much closer to our core interests,” Obama said. “My suspicion is that the Iranians recognize they shouldn’t draw a lesson that we haven’t struck [the Bashar Assad regime] to think we won’t strike Iran.”

Conversely, Obama added, the Russian-brokered agreement that would see Syria hand over its sizable chemical weapons stockpile was an indication to Tehran that “there is the potential of resolving these issues diplomatically.”

Zarif was quoted Sunday as saying that Iran sought “confidence-building measures” from the US to help resolve the nuclear dispute, and that the US needed to recognize that Iran now has advanced nuclear technology and knowhow.

Since taking office in early August, Rouhani has signaled a desire for warmed relations with the West, while also insisting that Iran intended to keep moving ahead with its nuclear program. In a speech to clerics last week, Rouhani said Iran “will not give up one iota” of its nuclear program.

The Channel 2 TV report said Israel broadly welcomed the US argument that, as with Syria, diplomacy backed by a credible military threat might enable progress toward the negotiated resolution of the Iranian nuclear crisis. But at the same time, it said, there was concern in Jerusalem that because Obama had first threatened and then backed away from the use of force against Syria, the Iranians do not regard the US as having a credible military option where they are concerned.

The key question, amid these new contacts between the US and Iran, the report added, was how close to the bomb the Obama administration might allow the Iranians to get. Israel’s position has been that Tehran’s stockpiles of enriched uranium must be removed, and its capacity to progress toward nuclear weapons prevented.

“The world needs to ensure that radical regimes don’t have weapons of mass destruction because as we’ve learned once again in Syria, if rogue regimes have weapons of mass destruction, they will use them,” Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said Sunday after a meeting with US Secretary of State John Kerry in Jerusalem. ”The determination the international community shows regarding Syria will have a direct impact on the Syrian regime’s patron, Iran. Iran must understand the consequences of its continual defiance of the international community, by its pursuit toward nuclear weapons… If diplomacy has any chance to work, it must be coupled with a credible military threat.”

The 68th General Assembly meeting of the United Nations runs from September 24 to October 4.

Next stop Tehran – Israel Opinion, Ynetnews.

Op-ed: Once Syria’s non-conventional weapons are destroyed, Obama will move on to Iran

Orly Azoulay

Yitzhak Rabin used to say that politics is not exactly an association for mutual affection. Obama and Putin have not had enough opportunities to hate each other, but none of them is overly fond of the other.

Obama condemns the way Putin violates human rights in Russia, and takes every opportunity to blast the dark methods he uses to deal with his political rivals. Putin, a leader who knows how to preserve his power by casting fear, likes to mock Obama over his appeasement and arrogance.

There isn’t even one line connecting between Obama, whose policy was designed between Harvard and Chicago, and Putin, who grew tough in the KGB cellars. The former is a liberal with a worldview based on human liberty; the latter is a conservative who believes in the crude language of power.

But a meeting of interests was created around the Syrian issue, bridging the abyss of contempt and animosity: Putin wanted to prevent an American military attack on his protégé, while Obama wanted to disarm the Syrian president of chemical weapons.

The agreement reached in Geneva freed Obama from the need to attack Syria, a strike he didn’t want to begin with despite ordering his army to prepare for it. “America is not the world’s policeman,” the US president said while explaining why he was giving diplomacy a chance.

Obama did not want to launch a strike in Syria without the Congress’ support, and he knew he would not get it; after a decade of wars, the majority of the American public is tired of them. Obama also knew that a military offensive, as successful as it might be, would not be able to destroy all of Assad‘s chemical weapons.

But the reliable threat of war was turned by the US president into a significant accessory in his diplomatic toolbox. Now he is about to reap the fruits. If Syria obeys world powers and its chemical weapons are destroyed, it will serve as further proof of the perception presented by Obama throughout his presidency: Political wisdom is better than a bomb, even a smart and laser-guided one.

The agreement was signed in Geneva, but the ink reaches Iran as well. Once Syria’s non-conventional weapons are destroyed, Obama will start making his way to the next stop: Tehran. Even the ayatollahs are seeing the sights and hearing the new sounds of the power of diplomacy.

If the agreement signed Saturday is executed, it will be determined that Obama proved there are moments in foreign policy in which it is better to load the gun, point it between the enemy’s eyes – and restrain oneself. Assad quivered first, and in this sophisticated diplomacy Obama plans to do the same to Rohani.