Archive for September 2013

Obama at the U.N.: Still Absent on Freedom and Democracy

September 25, 2013

Obama at the U.N.: Still Absent on Freedom and Democracy | The Weekly Standard.

 

Obama’s Confused Foreign Policy

September 25, 2013

Obama’s Confused Foreign Policy « Commentary Magazine.

If there is one point that President Obama’s defenders have made in favor of his muddled Syria policy, it is its popularity. Not so fast. A new New York Times/CBS News poll finds “that 52 percent disapproved of the way Mr. Obama was handling the situation in Syria.”

Moreover, Americans aren’t happy with Obama’s foreign policy in general: “Forty-nine percent disapproved of Mr. Obama’s foreign policy efforts, up 10 points since early June, and 40 percent approved. The president’s negative rating on foreign policy has grown among Americans of all political stripes, with disapproval up 8 points among Democrats, 10 points among Republicans and 13 points among independents.”

With his mishandling of Syria, Obama appears to have thrown away, at least for now, the foreign-policy advantage he had wrested away from Republicans largely with the SEAL raid to kill Osama bin Laden.

I have previously written that presidents must not make foreign-policy decisions based on public opinion polls, so simply because the public thinks the Obama administration’s foreign policy is wrong doesn’t necessarily make it so. But in this case I think the public is onto something. What the public perceives–the same thing that much of the world perceives–is that Obama is weak and vacillating, deliberative but indecisive.

Obama’s plan to launch cruise missiles against Syria may not have been particularly popular, but pretty much everyone is still dismayed to see a president lay down a “red line” and then not enforce it. Instead, the president has grabbed a face-saving but probably unenforceable deal to rid Syria of its chemical weapons while making a de facto commitment to keep the murderous Bashar Assad regime in power.

Obama’s defenders claimed that his flexibility on Syria would encourage a deal with Iran, but he was stiffed at the UN where Hassan Rouhani delivered a hardline speech and then refused to attend a luncheon where he might have shaken Obama’s hand–a handshake that the White House fervently desired. Administration insiders pooh-poohed this small defeat, explaining that Rouhani has to cater to his own domestic opinion and can’t be seen as being too eager to reach out to the United States. But if that’s the case–if Rouhani can’t even risk a handshake with Obama–what makes Obama think he will sign off on some kind of grand bargain that will force Iran to renounce its long-held goal of acquiring nuclear weapons? The general public is actually more realistic than the White House on the prospect of better relations with Iran: “Fewer than 1 in 4 think they will get better in the next few years, while a third think they will get worse, and 4 in 10 think they will stay about the same.”

Ironically, in pursuit of chimerical results in the Middle East, Obama has abandoned his long-standing desire to “pivot” or “rebalance” to the Pacific. Ian Bremmer of the Eurasia Group counted the number of time that in his UN speech Obama mentioned the following countries:

Iran 25
Syria 20
Israel 15
Palestine 11

Compare this with mentions of Asian countries:

China 1
Japan 0
India 0
Koreas 0

The focus on the Middle East isn’t wrong–I have long been skeptical of Obama’s professed desire to disengage from the region. But the fact that he is ignoring East Asia, something he attacked his predecessor for doing, is yet another sign of how confused his foreign policy has become. That’s something that Americans instinctively understand even if they don’t follow every nuance of foreign policy.

Arabs skeptical of West-Iran rapprochement

September 25, 2013

Arabs skeptical of West-Iran rapprochement | The Times of Israel.

With news focusing on Obama’s speech, Hasan Rouhani’s overtures towards the West fail to impress Arab columnists

September 25, 2013, 3:53 pm Iranian President Hasan Rouhani, right, meets with French President Francois Hollande during the 68th session of the United Nations General Assembly at United Nations headquarters Tuesday, Sept. 24, 2013 (photo credit: AP/Craig Ruttle)

Iranian President Hasan Rouhani, right, meets with French President Francois Hollande during the 68th session of the United Nations General Assembly at United Nations headquarters Tuesday, Sept. 24, 2013 (photo credit: AP/Craig Ruttle)

US President Barack Obama’s speech at the UN Tuesday leads the headlines of all major Arab dailies on Wednesday, with some focusing on his treatment of Syria while others wonder about his future relations with Iran.

“Obama adopts diplomacy with Iran, and Rouhani refuses ‘casual meeting’,” reads the headline of Saudi-owned daily A-Sharq Al-Awsat, reporting that the Iranians refused an American proposal for a meeting between the two leaders. President Rouhani did not attend Obama’s speech, the daily notes.

“Obama urges to protect Syria’s institutions: Assad cannot remain,” reads the headline of London-based daily Al-Hayat, featuring an Image of the American president on the backdrop of the the green UN marble wall.

“US President Barack Obama differentiated between his refusal to allow Syrian President Bashar Assad to remain in power, since he is ‘incapable of regaining legitimacy’ and the need to maintain the institutions of the Syrian state and protect its minorities, naming especially the Alawite minority,” reads the article.

“Obama placed the Iranian nuclear issue as his top priority in the region, alongside the peace process. He addressed Iran in conciliatory language.”

Meanwhile, Saudi-owned news site Elaph focuses on Obama’s conciliatory approach to Egypt’s new government in his speech.

“Egypt’s politicians welcome Obama’s abandonment of the Brotherhood,” reads Elaph’s headline, reporting that Foreign Minister Nabil Fahmy was among the first to congratulate the American president.

“In his statement, President Obama decided the teetering American stance towards the political developments in Egypt following the ouster of the Brotherhood president and the creation of a provisional government,” reads the article.

“Rouhani meets Hollande and avoids meeting Obama,” reads the headline of an article on the website of Al-Jazeera, featuring the photo of a handshake between the leaders of Iran and France.

According to the channel, this was the first meeting between leaders of the two countries since 2005. It last 40 minutes and tackled the Iranian nuclear program, the crisis in Syria and the situation in Lebanon.

But Europe and Iran can never grow close as long as Iran insists on developing nuclear weapons, argues Al-Hayat columnist Randa Taqi A-Din.

“The meeting of Francois Hollande with his counterpart Hasan Rouhani yesterday at the UN at Iran’s request cannot solve Tehran’s problem with the West and the world in the short or even mediate term, so long as Iran insists on its right to develop nuclear weapons. This issue is crucial for the West, since Israel will not compromise on it, even if its ally Barack Obama forcefully opts for a deal with Iran.”

Iran is still the same, despite smiley face, claim columnists

A number of Arab opinion articles are dedicated on Wednesday to the apparent thawing of relations between the US and Iran since the election of Hasan Rouhani.

“Rouhani in New York: is Iran recalculating its moves?” wonders the editorial of London-based daily Al-Quds Al-Arabi.

“Iran’s semi-imperial influence does not match its economic and military power. Iran is not among the 20 most powerful economies in the world, like neighboring Saudi Arabia and Turkey. Militarily, the budget of the US ministry of defense is double Iran’s annual gross national product. America’s military power is 100 times stronger than Iran’s.”

“However, the balance of power in the so-called Middle East cannot be measured economically and militarily alone, but through an intricate array of factors.”

Iran, claims the editor, has recently began sending positive signals Westward, marking a clear change of policy compared to the days of Mahmoud Ahmadinejad.

“The matter is certainly not due to Hasan Rouhani’s moderation, but to the understanding of Iran’s official establishment of developments around it. After using the card of missile threats … and after its costly drowning in the Syrian swamp, Iran has begun to re-calibrate its strategic considerations.”

Meanwhile, A-Sharq Al-Awsat columnist Iyad Abu-Shaqra justifies the jubilation of his Iranian friends towards the new Iranian-American Spring, a sentiment hardly shared by Arabs.

“Our relationship with Iran these days is one that may be dubbed as ‘problematic’ to say the least, so as not to say hostile… today Hasan Rouhani stands in New York to address an international community very inclined to think well of him and adopt his vision of turning the page and constructing a new era of constructive cooperation.”

“Politicians in the Arab world and the international community know full-well that the true decision-maker in Tehran is still Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei… the change in presidents is just a superficial transitional stage [for Iran] to catch its breath and seize the opportunity.”   

Rouhani’s charm offensive worryingly effective, admits top minister

September 25, 2013

Rouhani’s charm offensive worryingly effective, admits top minister | The Times of Israel.

Netanyahu, at UN next week, will have to refocus world attention on the fact that Iran still speeding to the bomb, says Gilad Erdan

September 25, 2013, 1:34 pm
Interior Minister Gilad Erdan (photo credit: Gideon Markowicz/Flash90/File)

Interior Minister Gilad Erdan (photo credit: Gideon Markowicz/Flash90/File)

Iranian President Hasan Rouhani’s conciliatory rhetoric from the UN podium and in interviews with the US media is having an impact, a senior Israeli minister acknowledged on Wednesday, adding that he was concerned that the facts of Iran’s accelerating drive to nuclear weapons were being obscured amid the charm offensive.

“I’m more than worried. I’m distraught,” said Home Front Defense and Communications Minister Gilad Erdan (Likud), a member of Israel’s key decision-making security cabinet. “Rouhani’s language is having its effect.”

Rouhani pledged in a largely conciliatory debut speech to the UN General Assembly on Tuesday that Iran posed no international threat, opposed wars, and was not seeking nuclear weapons, prompting Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to issue a bitter response, at 1 a.m. Wednesday Israel-time, that slammed the Iranian president’s address as a “cynical… hypocritical… PR charade.”

Ahead of Netanyahu’s own trip to the General Assembly next week, Erdan said it now fell to the prime minister to refocus international attention “on the facts” behind the rhetoric, and that those facts made plain that Iran’s bid for nuclear weaponry had not been slowed, much less halted. “The centrifuges are spinning faster,” said Erdan in an Israel Radio interview. “There’s also a plutonium core.”

Erdan acknowledged a growing sense that Israel — whose delegates were ordered by Netanyahu to leave the UN hall for Rouhani’s speech — is increasingly isolated in its tough line on Iran, with President Barack Obama having pledged Tuesday to “test” the diplomatic route to solving the nuclear standoff. Erdan said he hoped Netanyahu’s US visit, “including his meetings with international leaders, will have an effect.” The prime minister is to meet with Obama at the White House early next week.

In Erdan’s reading, the fact that Rouhani was elected, and that he is speaking out in moderate tones, is a direct consequence of Iran’s urgent imperative to heal its economy by getting international sanctions lifted. But the sanctions, the minister said, have not slowed the nuclear program. “There’s no change.”

Rouhani could have offered at least some step in his speech “connected to the [relevant] UN resolutions [on Iran’s unsanctioned nuclear program] or to the IAEA report on the military characteristics of the program. But there was nothing,” said Erdan. “He even refused to shake Obama’s hand. Remember, he’s not the one who makes the decisions [on the nuclear program],” said Erdan. Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei is the only one who matters where that is concerned, “and he has not given the word” for genuine change.

As things stand, said Erdan, Iran poses “an existential threat” not only to Israel, but to the world.

He also said that Rouhani earlier this week presided over a military parade which featured a Shehab-3 missile truck bearing the slogan “Israel must be destroyed.” And he lamented that, although Rouhani made comments in a CNN interview Tuesday condemning the Holocaust, he was “not pushed hard enough” on the issue.

Other Likud leaders echoed Erdan’s themes Wednesday. While agreeing that the Iranian leader “didn’t deny the Holocaust” in the CNN appearance, Minister of Intelligence Yuval Steinitz said during an Israel Radio interview that Rouhani “didn’t condemn those who have denied it,” including previous Iranian president Mahmoud Ahmadinejad and other Iranian politicians.

Ze’ev Elkin, Deputy Foreign Minister, told Army Radio that just because Rouhani recognized that the Holocaust occurred doesn’t mean Iran is “enlightened and cultivated,” since “Iranian spiritual leaders who have denied the Holocaust are still in place.”

“I am not a historian and when it comes to speaking of the dimensions of the Holocaust it is the historians that should reflect,” Rouhani said during his interview with Christiane Amanpour. “But in general I can tell you that any crime that happens in history against humanity, including the crime the Nazis created towards the Jews, is reprehensible and condemnable.”

Steinitz, who was at the United Nations as part of Israel’s delegation to the UN General Assembly, told reporters that Rouhani is playing a “game of deception” with regards to Iran’s efforts to develop nuclear weapons.

“We heard a lot of new rhetoric but zero new steps or even zero new commitments to meet the UN Security Council resolutions [on the nuclear issue],” Steinitz noted.

Steinitz and Erdan also defended Netanyahu’s decision to order the Israeli delegation to leave the hall for Rouhani’s speech, a move criticized by Finance Minister Yair Lapid (Yesh Atid) as “a mistake” that made Israel look like “a perennial rejectionist.”

Tiger in sheep’s clothing

September 25, 2013

Tiger in sheep’s clothing – Israel Opinion, Ynetnews.

Op-ed: Israel’s job is to convince world that Iran’s conciliatory rhetoric is just another ploy

Hagai Segal

Published: 09.25.13, 14:12 / Israel Opinion

The Israeli response to the Iranian reconciliation offensive was quick and worthy. Even if there is some chance that Tehran is giving up on its nuclear adventure, we must assume that it isn’t. A carnivorous tiger has to maintain a vegetarian lifestyle for at least five years before it achieves the status of a sheep.

Meanwhile, it is hard to detect any real vegetarian habits on the Iranian side. It is only the music that has been refined a little. The international sanctions are a burden on the ayatollahs’ regime, and it is resorting to trickery in order to have them lifted. The first ploy was the election of Rohani as president by disqualifying candidates who posed a threat, and the most recent trick is the release of moderate statements the international community likes to hear. Rohani’s remarks are aimed at allowing this tired and wavering community to determine that the Iranian president has climbed down from the nuclear tree.

Iran is “loyal” to its pledge not to seek nuclear weapons, President Rohani said in a statement to the press before leaving for the display of peace at the UN General Assembly in New York. This is a lie. Even if Iran does not succeed in developing these weapons, it undoubtedly aspires to develop them. A homemade atomic bomb has been at the top of Iran’s list of aspirations since the 1980s. It has never officially declared this, but history has taught us that insane countries are careful not to expose their claws before they are able to accomplish what they set out to do. Until that time, they try to confuse the enlightened world with conciliation initiatives and peace babble.

Israel’s job at this time is to make sure the enlightened world does not get confused. As long as Iran dreams out loud of annihilating Israel, we must not believe it when it claims its nuclear industry is meant for civilian purposes only. Since when is the regime in Tehran interested in its citizens?

Ever since the revolution of 1979, Iran has been run by a belligerent and cruel regime. Currently it is experiencing operational difficulties that are causing it to slow down the race toward a bomb, but this delay is merely part of the plan to accelerate the nuclear program. Iran is trying to show that it is extending its hand in peace, but we must continue to step on its thumb.

Rouhani’s farce

September 25, 2013

Israel Hayom | Rouhani’s farce.

Boaz Bismuth

Fars (Persepolis) was the official capital of the Persian Empire, built in the time of Cyrus the Great, around 560 B.C.E. A farce is also a comedy. Iranian President Hasan Rouhani’s speech at the U.N. was able to link the two.

The Iranian farce enjoys a steady audience that takes it seriously. Even U.S. President Barack Obama is changing his tone toward Iran. Obama is choosing, once more, to give diplomacy a chance. And again — just as he did five years ago — he made that peculiar link between the Palestinian issue and the nuclear threat, even though reality has proven that the two are not connected.

In his speech, Obama instructed U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry to pursue dialogue with Iran. The foreign ministers of the six world powers are scheduled to meet with the Iranian foreign minister on Thursday. This time, we will not witness the impromptu handshake we saw between Secretary of State Colin Powell and his Iranian counterpart at the General Assembly in 2001 — this time the handshake will be official.

Iranian Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif met with the foreign ministers of Italy, Britain and the Netherlands on Wednesday, as well as with EU foreign policy chief Catherine Ashton, who was very excited about the Iranian minister’s “energy and tenacity.” This is the same Ashton who was equally excited by Zarif’s predecessor, Saeed Jalili, and who has been heading the nuclear negotiations between Iran and the West since October 2009. The last meeting took place in April, in Kazakhstan. Only Borat was missing to make the farce official. But the Americans are enthusiastic.

Obama’s speech at the U.N. was less than exciting. Reality has proven to him and us both that pretty words do not change the world. Obama, by the way, stated that he does not believe that “America or any nation should determine who will lead Syria.” The Egyptian delegation to the General Assembly in New York must have been sorry that he did not think the same about Egypt.

Obama has a far less romantic view of the Middle East these days and he is hoping that Iran, off all things, will keep him from being a lame duck until his second term in office is over. Obama needs to show that he has accomplished something — just like Rouhani, who wishes to see the sanctions lifted. It is no wonder that the Iranian courtship of the U.S. is working.

Iran has been given an American line of diplomatic credit. Is it because Rouhani has admitted that Tehran will continue to pursue its nuclear program? Is it because just like his predecessor, Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, he claims that the nuclear program is peaceful?

American political commentator Charles Krauthammer noted recently that in his Washington Post op-ed, Rouhani stressed the “culture of peace” promoted by Iran — the same Iran that has an official “Death to America Day.” The children of Iran need not worry — it does not look like the day off they get on that day it will be voided any time soon. The ayatollahs’ Iran will not part with the “Great Satan” — or with its nuclear program — easily.

Obama waves the white flag

September 25, 2013

Israel Hayom | Obama waves the white flag.

Prof. Abraham Ben-Zvi

U.S. President Barack Obama’s address to the U.N. General Assembly on Tuesday was marked by acceptance and resignation of America’s decline from its exclusive position of world leader.

In his speech, a clear message emerged: The American superpower cannot bear the burden alone for maintaining international order and the U.S. aspires to act cooperatively with the international community while relying on diplomatic tools.

Regarding Syria, the sword that hung above President Bashar Assad’s head disappeared in one feel swoop and was replaced by the U.N. Security Council as an entity that is supposed to enforce the Geneva Conventions. But Obama’s mention of international sanctions against Syria, should it violate its pledge to give up its chemical weapons, was general and toothless.

The same went for Iran. Obama repeated, almost word for word, the conciliatory message he sent to the Iranian people and their leaders in 2009. However, this time, unlike in the past, the message was delivered from a position of significant weakness. This is because of the resounding failure of Obama’s attempt to gain congressional support for limited military action in Syria and the titanic battle the White House is engaged in with the House of Representatives on budget issues. There is no chance that Obama would receive a green light from the current Congress to strike Iran, no matter what the reasons.

Obama thus found himself at the U.N. raising a white flag on everything related to America’s ability to shape global affairs.

Obama faces an Iran that has been weakened by crippling sanctions. The result of this was expressed by the president repeatedly in his speech, as he gave the go-ahead to a diplomatic process with Iran following the harmonious tones that have been emanating from Tehran recently.

The question to ask is this: Given the current circumstances, particularly in the wake of the Syrian fiasco, is there a real chance that the soft music being played by President Hasan Rouhani will be translated into a strategic decision by Iran to freeze its nuclear program?

The diplomatic process, to be led on the American side by the indefatigable U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry, will shed light on this key question. One can only hope that Kerry will be more successful in this than he was in enlisting support for military action against Syria.

Obama launches diplomacy with Tehran after quietly accepting Iran’s current nuclear capabilities

September 25, 2013

Obama launches diplomacy with Tehran after quietly accepting Iran’s current nuclear capabilities.

DEBKAfile Exclusive Analysis September 25, 2013, 10:05 AM (IDT)
Barack Obama announces diplomacy with Iran

Barack Obama announces diplomacy with Iran

Iranian President Rouhani conspicuously avoided shaking the hand President Barack Obama extended to his government at the UN Tuesday, Sept. 24, by absenting himself from the UN reception for world readers. He made this gesture under strong international spotlight to underscore the value Iran places on being respected as an equal in the negotiations ahead with the United States, Iranian sources stress.

Although his words were relatively mild for an Iranian revolutionary, Rouhani nonetheless made no concessions on Tehran’s fundamentals: “Acceptance of and respect for implementation of the right to enrichment inside Iran and enjoyment of other related nuclear rights provides “the only path to the framework to manage our differences.”

Obama knew the “handshake rebuff” was coming, yet he went through with his announcement of direct engagement with Iran earlier Tuesday. To give his rhetoric weight, he demonstratively instructed Secretary of State John Kerry to take charge of the pursuit of “face to face negotiations” with Tehran.

The link Obama made in his speech between the Iranian and Palestinians negotiating processes as the two focal issues of his Middle East policy was further embodied by his appointment of the same official, John Kerry, to take charge of both tracks. This has placed Israel at a disadvantage on both fronts.
Kerry finds the Iranian track in good shape. It has been secretly active for the past two months between president Obama and Iran’s supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and Rouhani, as first revealed by debkafile. Oman’s Sultan Qaboos was their go-between.

The Secretary of State wins a flying start from the four points of agreement they have already reached:

1. Iran’s nuclear capabilities will be preserved in their present state. Tehran has already pocketed respect for its right to enrich uranium and keep back in the country all accumulated stocks, including the quantities enriched to the 20 percent level (a short hop to weaponised grade).

2. Tehran accepts a cap on the number of centrifuges enriching uranium at the Natanz facility. The exact number has not been decided.
The number of machines for enriching uranium to 5 percent is still at issue. There are no restrictions on centrifuges generating a lower level of purity.
Discussions on this point have not been finalized, since Washington wants to limit the number of advanced IR2 and IR1 centrifuges in operation and Tehran is holding out against this,

3. Iran will sign the Additional Protocol of the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty-NPT, which allows International Atomic Energy Agency inspectors to make unannounced visits outside declared nuclear sites, when they are suspected of carrying out banned operations.
It will also allow the IAEA to install cameras in the chambers where the centrifuges are spinning and not just the areas where the enriched uranium is deposited.
Here too, it is not clear whether Tehran will also stipulated that Israel sign the same article and permit inspections of its reputed nuclear sites.

4.  The US and European Union will gradually lift all sanctions.

The linkage President Obama made between the Iranian and Palestinian negotiating tracks is puzzling:

Does it imply that the more land Israel gives up on the West Bank for a Palestinian state, the more heavily he will lean on Iran to give up its nuclear weapons program?

Was the president suggesting that if Israel is ready to evacuate settlements and reach a land swap deal with the Palestinians, he will be all the more ready to use force to preempt a nuclear-armed Iran?

If that is the president’s thinking, he is giving the Palestinian leader Mahmoud Abbas, by accepting or rejecting the extent of Israeli concessions, the power to determine the endgame of US nuclear negotiations with Iran.
Does that make sense?

Obama’s interconnection of the two issues, if that can be extrapolated from his words, is self defeating: It would allow Tehran to carry on with its nuclear weapons program while spouting more pacific slogans to the American public and Binyamin Netanyahu to refuse to pull Israel out of substantial areas in Judea and Samaria, while advising the Palestinians to be satisfied with the control they have over seven West Bank cities and their economic autonomy.
Buried under the verbal avalanche produced in two days of UN business, was a major diplomatic concession tossed by Obama at Iran’s feet: His call on the UN Security Council to enforce Syria’s compliance with the international ban on chemical weapons as a major challenge to the international community.

First he shunted the Syrian chemical issue aside by relegating to the US Congress a decision on limited US military intervention.He then put it on the table for a US-Russian deal in Geneva; and finally he has passed it on to the UN. The Russians have made it clear that they will block any Security Council measures that would hold Syria to account for non-compliance with the Chemical Weapons ban.

So the buck-passing has reached a dead end and Iran’s ally Bashar Assad is off the hook for using poison gas against his own people.

Arab-Israeli Fatalities Rank 49th :: Daniel Pipes

September 25, 2013

Arab-Israeli Fatalities Rank 49th :: Daniel Pipes.

( Thanks for this Mladen… –  JW )

The Arab-Israeli conflict is often said, not just by extremists, to be the world’s most dangerous conflict – and, accordingly, Israel is judged the world’s most belligerent country.

For example, British prime minister Tony Blair told the U.S. Congress in July 2003 that “Terrorism will not be defeated without peace in the Middle East between Israel and Palestine. Here it is that the poison is incubated. Here it is that the extremist is able to confuse in the mind of a frighteningly large number of people the case for a Palestinian state and the destruction of Israel.” This viewpoint leads many Europeans, among others, to see Israel as the most menacing country on earth.

But is this true? It flies in the face of the well-known pattern that liberal democracies do not aggress; plus, it assumes, wrongly, that the Arab-Israeli conflict is among the most costly in terms of lives lost.

To place the Arab-Israeli fatalities in their proper context, one of the two co-authors, Gunnar Heinsohn, has compiled statistics to rank conflicts since 1950 by the number of human deaths incurred. Note how far down the list is the entry in bold type.

Conflicts since 1950 with over 10,000 Fatalities (all figures rounded)*

1 40,000,000 Red China, 1949-76 (outright killing, manmade famine, Gulag)
2 10,000,000 Soviet Bloc: late Stalinism, 1950-53; post-Stalinism, to 1987 (mostly Gulag)
3 4,000,000 Ethiopia, 1962-92: Communists, artificial hunger, genocides
4 3,800,000 Zaire (Congo-Kinshasa): 1967-68; 1977-78; 1992-95; 1998-present
5 2,800,000 Korean war, 1950-53
6 1,900,000 Sudan, 1955-72; 1983-2006 (civil wars, genocides)
7 1,870,000 Cambodia: Khmer Rouge 1975-79; civil war 1978-91
8 1,800,000 Vietnam War, 1954-75
9 1,800,000 Afghanistan: Soviet and internecine killings, Taliban 1980-2001
10 1,250,000 West Pakistan massacres in East Pakistan (Bangladesh 1971)
11 1,100,000 Nigeria, 1966-79 (Biafra); 1993-present
12 1,100,000 Mozambique, 1964-70 (30,000) + after retreat of Portugal 1976-92
13 1,000,000 Iran-Iraq-War, 1980-88
14 900,000 Rwanda genocide, 1994
15 875,000 Algeria: against France 1954-62 (675,000); between Islamists and the government 1991-2006 (200,000)
16 850,000 Uganda, 1971-79; 1981-85; 1994-present
17 650,000 Indonesia: Marxists 1965-66 (450,000); East Timor, Papua, Aceh etc, 1969-present (200,000)
18 580,000 Angola: war against Portugal 1961-72 (80,000); after Portugal’s retreat (1972-2002)
19 500,000 Brazil against its Indians, up to 1999
20 430,000 Vietnam, after the war ended in 1975 (own people; boat refugees)
21 400,000 Indochina: against France, 1945-54
22 400,000 Burundi, 1959-present (Tutsi/Hutu)
23 400,000 Somalia, 1991-present
24 400,000 North Korea up to 2006 (own people)
25 300,000 Kurds in Iraq, Iran, Turkey, 1980s-1990s
26 300,000 Iraq, 1970-2003 (Saddam against minorities)
27 240,000 Colombia, 1946-58; 1964-present
28 200,000 Yugoslavia, Tito regime, 1944-80
29 200,000 Guatemala, 1960-96
30 190,000 Laos, 1975-90
31 175,000 Serbia against Croatia, Bosnia-Herzegovina, Kosovo, 1991-1999
32 150,000 Romania, 1949-99 (own people)
33 150,000 Liberia, 1989-97
34 140,000 Russia against Chechnya, 1994-present
35 150,000 Lebanon civil war, 1975-90
36 140,000 Kuwait War, 1990-91
37 130,000 Philippines: 1946-54 (10,000); 1972-present (120,000)
38 130,000 Burma/Myanmar, 1948-present
39 100,000 North Yemen, 1962-70
40 100,000 Sierra Leone, 1991-present
41 100,000 Albania, 1945-91 (own people)
42 80,000 Iran, 1978-79 (revolution)
43 75,000 Iraq, 2003-present (domestic)
44 75,000 El Salvador, 1975-92
45 70,000 Eritrea against Ethiopia, 1998-2000
46 68,000 Sri Lanka, 1997-present
47 60,000 Zimbabwe, 1966-79; 1980-present
48 60,000 Nicaragua, 1972-91 (Marxists/natives etc,)
49 51,000 Arab-Israeli conflict 1950-present
50 50,000 North Vietnam, 1954-75 (own people)
51 50,000 Tajikistan, 1992-96 (secularists against Islamists)
52 50,000 Equatorial Guinea, 1969-79
53 50,000 Peru, 1980-2000
54 50,000 Guinea, 1958-84
55 40,000 Chad, 1982-90
56 30,000 Bulgaria, 1948-89 (own people)
57 30,000 Rhodesia, 1972-79
58 30,000 Argentina, 1976-83 (own people)
59 27,000 Hungary, 1948-89 (own people)
60 26,000 Kashmir independence, 1989-present
61 25,000 Jordan government vs. Palestinians, 1970-71 (Black September)
62 22,000 Poland, 1948-89 (own people)
63 20,000 Syria, 1982 (against Islamists in Hama)
64 20,000 Chinese-Vietnamese war, 1979
65 19,000 Morocco: war against France, 1953-56 (3,000) and in Western Sahara, 1975-present (16,000)
66 18,000 Congo Republic, 1997-99
67 10,000 South Yemen, 1986 (civil war)

*Sources: Z. Brzezinski, Out of Control: Global Turmoil on the Eve of the Twenty-first Century, 1993; S. Courtois, Le Livre Noir du Communism, 1997; G. Heinsohn, Lexikon der Völkermorde, 1999, 2nd ed.; G. Heinsohn, Söhne und Weltmacht, 2006, 8th ed.; R. Rummel, Death by Government, 1994; M. Small and J.D. Singer, Resort to Arms: International and Civil Wars 1816-1980, 1982; M. White, “Death Tolls for the Major Wars and Atrocities of the Twentieth Century,” 2003.

Mao Tse-Tung, by far the greatest post-1950 murderer.

This grisly inventory finds the total number of deaths in conflicts since 1950 numbering about 85,000,000. Of that sum, the deaths in the Arab-Israeli conflict since 1950 include 32,000 deaths due to Arab state attacks and 19,000 due to Palestinian attacks, or 51,000 in all. Arabs make up roughly 35,000 of these dead and Jewish Israelis make up 16,000.

These figures mean that deaths in Arab-Israeli fighting since 1950 amount to just 0.06 percent of the total number of deaths in all conflicts in that period. More graphically, only 1 out of about 1,700 persons killed in conflicts since 1950 has died due to Arab-Israeli fighting.

(Adding the 11,000 killed in the Israeli war of independence, 1947-49, made up of 5,000 Arabs and 6,000 Israeli Jews, does not significantly alter these figures.)

In a different perspective, some 11,000,000 Muslims have been violently killed since 1948, of which 35,000, or 0.3 percent, died during the sixty years of fighting Israel, or just 1 out of every 315 Muslim fatalities. In contrast, over 90 percent of the 11 million who perished were killed by fellow Muslims.

Comments:

(1) Despite the relative non-lethality of the Arab-Israeli conflict, its renown, notoriety, complexity, and diplomatic centrality will probably give it continued out-sized importance in the global imagination. And Israel’s reputation will continue to pay the price.

(2) Still, it helps to point out the 1-in-1,700 statistic as a corrective, in the hope that one day, this reality will register, permitting the Arab-Israeli conflict to subside to its rightful, lesser place in world politics.

Professor Heinsohn is director of the Raphael-Lemkin-Institut für Xenophobie- und Genozidforschung at the University of Bremen. Mr. Pipes is director of the Middle East Forum.

US Congress skeptical over Obama-Rouhani overtures

September 25, 2013

US Congress skeptical over Obama-Rouhani overtures | JPost | Israel News.

Democrats, Republicans unite in wariness on Iran.

Protesting Obama, Rouhani overtures outside the UN headquarters in New York September 24, 2013.

Protesting Obama, Rouhani overtures outside the UN headquarters in New York September 24, 2013. Photo: REUTERS

 

WASHINGTON – After balking at President Barack Obama’s plan to attack Syria, the US Congress is also stirring in opposition to his latest foreign policy goal: an effort to improve relations with Iran.

Congress imposed sanctions that are damaging the Iranian economy and, according to US officials, are responsible for a moderate tone from Iran’s new leadership, which will restart talks this week over its nuclear program.

US lawmakers have the power to lift sanctions if they think Tehran is making concessions and scaling back its nuclear ambitions, but many Republicans and some of Obama’s fellow Democrats are skeptical about a charm offensive by new President Hassan Rouhani.

“We need to approach the current diplomatic initiative with eyes wide open, and we must not allow Iran to use negotiations as a tool of delay and deception,” Republican Senators John McCain, Lindsey Graham, and Kelly Ayotte said in a statement.

Many US lawmakers are deeply supportive of Israel and suspect Iran is trying to build a nuclear weapons capability, one of the few areas where bitterly divided Republicans and Democrats agree on policy.

“Congress has no stake in giving Iran the benefit of the doubt, period. And until they see something quite dramatic on the part of the Iranians, they won’t,” said Aaron David Miller, a former senior State Department official now at the Woodrow Wilson Center in Washington.

The Senate and House of Representatives have passed repeated packages of tough sanctions on Iran. Obama has the legal right to waive most of them for 120 days, and then another 120 days, as an option if nuclear negotiations with Iran, which begin on Thursday, are going well.

In a speech to the United Nations General Assembly, Obama said he was determined to test President Rouhani’s recent diplomatic gestures and challenged him to take concrete steps toward resolving Iran’s long-running nuclear dispute with the West.

“Conciliatory words will have to be matched by actions that are transparent and verifiable,” Obama told the annual gathering of world leaders in New York.

In the event Obama were to temporarily waive sanctions, however, it could worsen already bad relations with Congress, which pushed back against the administration, expressing serious misgivings earlier this month about a planned US attack on Syria for its alleged use of chemical weapons.

Lawmakers ended up not taking a vote on Syria, perhaps saving Obama from an embarrassing defeat, but now the White House is at odds with Republican fiscal conservatives in Congress over a possible government shutdown and the debt ceiling.

Failure by Obama to rein in sanctions hawks in Congress could hinder talks on Iran’s nuclear program, which Tehran says is peaceful.

“For the Iranians to negotiate with the Obama administration, they have to be convinced that the Obama administration can deliver what they need from Congress,” said Jon Alterman of the Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington.

“CONSISTENT VOICE”

Rouhani hinted at that problem in a speech to the UN General Assembly on Tuesday.

He called for “a consistent voice from Washington” and expressed hope Obama would not be swayed by “war-mongering pressure groups” in dealing with the Iranian nuclear issue.

The Senate Banking Committee is expected soon to begin debating its version of a new package of sanctions that easily passed the House of Representatives in July. The House bill would cut Iran’s crude exports to global customers by an additional 1 million barrels per day in a year, on top of US and European Union sanctions that have about halved Tehran’s oil sales since 2011.

Deeper cuts in Iran’s oil sales could worsen the damage Western sanctions have already done to Iran’s economy, which suffered a loss of about $26 billion in petroleum revenue in 2012, soaring inflation, and a devaluation of its currency, the rial.

Republican Representative Ed Royce, chairman of the House Foreign Affairs Committee and a co-author of the new House sanctions bill, dismissed Rouhani’s speech as rhetoric.

“Through crippling economic sanctions we can continue to increase the pressure on the regime, targeting its ability to pursue a nuclear weapons capability,” Royce said in a statement.

Two senior Democrats – Senator Charles Schumer and Robert Menendez, the chairman of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee – joined Republican lawmakers on Monday to call on Obama to stay tough on Iran.

Menendez was unimpressed with the UN speech by Iran’s new president.

“While I welcome the statement by President Rouhani that Iran is seeking a peaceful and diplomatic path, I was disappointed by the overwhelmingly antagonistic rhetoric that characterized his remarks,” he said.

On Tuesday, 11 Republicans who opposed Obama’s proposal to strike Syria, led by potential 2016 presidential contender Senator Marco Rubio, urged a hard line on Iran.

“We all agree that Iran should not perceive any weakness as a result of our differences over Syria policy,” they said in a letter released while Obama delivered his address to the UN General Assembly in New York.