WarSclerotic

Iran and the United States held their highest-level substantive talks in a generation on Thursday, saying the tone was positive but sounding cautious about resolving the long-running standoff over Iran’s nuclear program.

U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry and Iranian Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif met after Zarif held wider talks with the United States and other major powers to address Western suspicions that Iran may be trying to develop atomic weapons.

Diplomats from the major countries described the atmosphere of the wider talks in positive terms, but they, as well as the U.S. and Iranian foreign ministers, stressed the difficulty of resolving a dispute that has eluded solution for a decade.

“We had a very constructive meeting,” Kerry told reporters after the talks at the United Nations, where he and Zarif sat next to one another and shook hands, according to a senior U.S. official, in a gesture that suggested a desire by both sides to explore how to ease their more than three-decade estrangement.

But Kerry added, “Needless to say, one meeting and a change in tone, which was welcome, doesn’t answer those questions yet and there is a lot of work to be done.”

The U.S. wants Iran to address questions about its nuclear program, which Washington and its allies suspect is a cover for developing nuclear weapons. Iran denies that, saying its program is for peaceful, civilian uses.

Zarif, a U.S.-educated diplomat, also sounded a cautionary note and insisted on quick relief from the painful U.S., European Union and U.N. sanctions imposed for Iran’s refusal to suspend its uranium enrichment program.

“I am satisfied with this first step. Now we have to see whether we can match our positive words with serious deeds so we can move forward,” he told reporters.

“Of course as we move forward, there has to be removal of sanctions and in the end game there has to be a total lifting of all sanctions and both bilateral sanctions, unilateral sanctions as well as multilateral sanctions and U.N. sanctions and we hope to be able to move in that direction within a short span of time.”

Kerry said Zarif had put some “possibilities” on the table, but stressed there was more work to be done.

U.S. seeks ‘verifiable’ process

A senior U.S. official said after the meeting that Iran had proposed fully implementing an agreement on its nuclear program within a year. The official added that while Zarif had offered suggestions, “there is a lot more to understand.”

In an interview before Thursday’s meeting, Kerry said the U.S. would not lift sanctions until Iran showed it was not pursuing a nuclear weapons capability.

He told the CBS show “60 Minutes” that one concrete step Iran could take to show it was serious about not seeking nuclear arms would be to open up its Fordo uranium enrichment facility to U.N. inspectors.

“The United States is not going to lift the sanctions until it is clear that a very verifiable, accountable, transparent process is in place, whereby we know exactly what Iran is going be doing with its (nuclear) program,” he said.

Iran’s new President Hasan Rouhani has said he would like to see a deal with world powers in three to six months.

Kerry told CBS it would be “possible to have a deal sooner than that depending on how forthcoming and clear Iran is prepared to be.”

The meeting was a very uncommon encounter between top officials of the United States and Iran, which have been estranged since the 1979 overthrow of the shah and the taking of American hostages at the U.S. Embassy in Tehran.

A State Department official said it was the highest-level “official” meeting between U.S. and Iranian officials since before the Iranian Islamic Revolution, although there had been “informal” interactions at the same level in the past 10 to 12 years.

Kerry and counterparts from the five permanent members of the U.N. Security Council and Germany described their meeting with Zarif on the sidelines of the U.N. General Assembly as “a change in tone” from encounters with Iran’s previous, hard line government.

European Union foreign policy chief Catherine Ashton, who chaired the meeting, told reporters it had been “a substantial meeting. Good atmosphere. Energetic.”

She said the two sides had agreed on an “ambitious timetable” to address Western concerns and would meet again in Geneva on Oct. 15 and 16 “to pursue the agenda to carry on from today’s meeting and to hopefully move this process forward.”

Ashton also added a note of caution, saying it was important to focus on “effective work that we do on the ground.”

The New York talks involved the five permanent members of the U.N. Security Council — Britain, France, Russia, China, the United States — as well as Germany, known as the P5+1.

Iran’s new president is a moderate cleric who has stepped up efforts to improve Iran’s image abroad during his visit to New York this week and has said Iran will never develop nuclear weapons.

U.S. President Barack Obama on Tuesday cautiously embraced Rouhani’s gestures as the basis for a possible nuclear deal and challenged him to demonstrate his sincerity.

But the failure to orchestrate a handshake between the two leaders, apparently because of Rouhani’s concerns about a backlash from hardliners at home and perhaps Obama’s concerns about the possibility of a failed overture, underscored how hard it will be to make diplomatic progress.

Even without making any real concessions so far, Rouhani has offered a softer, more reasonable tone than his stridently anti-American predecessor Mahmoud Ahmadinejad.

Meanwhile, the sanctions imposed on Iran have begun to bite severely. Iranian oil exports have fallen by about 60 percent in the past two years as the EU stopped purchases and most Asian buyers drastically cut imports because of the sanctions. Iran is now earning only around $100 million from oil sales a day as opposed to $250 million two years ago.

The six powers said in February they wanted Iran to stop enrichment of uranium to 20%, ship out some stockpiles and shutter a facility where such enrichment work is done. In return, they offered relief on international sanctions on Iran’s petrochemicals and trade in gold and other precious metals.

U.S. officials say that offer remains on the table.

But signaling some of the obstacles that could hamper any new diplomacy, Iran on Thursday sharply criticized the U.N. nuclear watchdog over “baseless allegations” about its atomic activity.

It was an apparent reference to the International Atomic Energy Agency’s concerns, spelled out in a series of quarterly reports, about what it calls the possible military dimensions to Iranian nuclear activities.

The Fordo uranium enrichment facility Kerry referred to is a secret plant buried 299 feet (91 meters) underground, making it difficult to bomb should the West or Israel decide they need to take military action against Iran’s nuclear program.

Rouhani urges Israel to sign nuclear non-proliferation treaty

On Thursday, Sept. 26, Rouhani told a U.N. nuclear disarmament meeting that the Middle East should be a region free of nuclear weapons.

“Almost four decades of international effort to establish a nuclear weapons free zone in the Middle East has regrettably failed. Urgent practical steps toward the establishment of such a zone are necessary. Israel, the only non party to the Non Proliferation Treaty in this region should join there too without any further delay,” said Rouhani.

Israel is widely believed to possess the Middle East’s only nuclear arsenal, drawing frequent condemnation by Arab countries and Iran which say it threatens peace and security.

Rouhani said that pending a world free of nuclear weapons, the countries that do have them should not threaten those that do not.

“Nuclear weapon states should refrain from any threat or use of nuclear weapons against any non-nuclear weapon state under any circumstances,” said Rouhani.

Israel sees a mortal menace in an Iranian bomb it says could be months away from production and says may now be expedited should world powers back off sanctions and readiness for a war of last-resort against Tehran.

Rouhani was speaking on behalf of the Non-Aligned Movement. Rouhani asked for a conference to take place to address the issue of issue of nuclear weapons in the Middle East.

“I reaffirm that the NAM state parties to the Non-Proliferation Treaty urge the convening of the conference of the establishment of a zone free of nuclear weapons and all other weapons of mass destruction in the Middle East without any further delay. With the participation of all countries in the region to avoid unwanted consequences,” said Rouhani.

Conversely, Israel and the United States accuse Iran of covertly seeking a nuclear arms capability, something Tehran denies. The election of Rouhani, a relative moderate, as new Iranian president has raised hopes of an easing of tension with the West.

Iran said on Wednesday it wants to jump-start talks with world powers to resolve a decade-long dispute over its nuclear program and hoped for a deal in three to six months.

Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu arrived in New York this week with the goal of unmasking new Iranian President Hasan Rouhani. He wants to drive home the notion that the winds of change blowing from Iran are a result of Western pressure. Nothing else could be attributed to that. Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei is the one who calls the shots and serves as the driving force when it comes to the Islamic Revolution. His directives to go ahead with the nuclear program have not bee amended. Netanyahu knows that. That is why he has been unrelenting.

Contrary to what many people think, the prime minister is not against Western or U.S. diplomacy. If a military confrontation with Iran can be averted and if Iran can give up its military nuclear program through peaceful means, Netanyahu would prefer that course of action. But a quick review of recent history would suggest that Iran will only start talking seriously if a threatening sword is placed against its throat. A clear-cut schedule and a credible action-plan, not unlike what was deliberated on Syria, could bear fruit when it comes to Iran as well.

But, and this is a big but, Netanyahu believes that when it comes to a diplomatic solution, it is now or never. He believes that the expiration date for talks has come and gone. Talks have continued for the past eight years and the Iranians have been taking advantage of them to move ahead with their nuclear program.

Netanyahu will have two opportunities to make his case next week: the first, when he meets U.S. President Barack Obama, who is no longer willing to serve as the world’s policeman and who has exchanged letters with Iran’s leader and who has a problematic track record when it comes to the Middle East. The second opportunity is a much more public venue, when he delivers his address before the U.N. General Assembly.

Netanyahu will try to teach the Americans a history lesson involving a not so distant affair that culminated with another big con job: North Korea. The West held talks with that country as well. Promises were made. Then, one morning, the world woke up to a deafening roar of thunder: the regime had conducted a nuclear test. The North Koreans proved that a radical regime can fool the world. Do not create a new North Korean model, Netanyahu will say.

The premier will also show evidence indicating that the Iranians are already fooling the world. They say they do not want nuclear weapons, Netanyahu will warn. But the International Atomic Energy Agency has already looked into the matter and concluded that they were seeking such weapons, he will continue. He will also note that Iran is sponsoring global terrorism. He will pull no punches.

Determination will lead to action?

Netanyahu will depart for the U.S. on Saturday night. On Monday he will meet with Obama in Washington. Then he will go back to New York and at noon on the following day, Tuesday, he will address the General Assembly. Last year he drew a red line on a bomb diagram. Apparently the Iranians have been very careful not to reach the red lines he delineated. Rather than cross the lines, they fudged them. They developed a new program, a so called red-line detour path. It is based on plutonium reactors that would be active even as the uranium facilities go on with the enrichment activity. So Netanyahu updated his red lines. Instead of three lines there are now four: stopping all uranium enrichment activity; removing the enriched uranium from Iran; shutting down the nuclear facility in Qom; freezing the plutonium-based activity. Israel insists that only the combination of all four steps would effect a meaningful halt to Iran’s nuclear program. Until that happens, the pressure must increase, not decrease.

Behind closed doors Netanyahu has been saying that the events that have engulfed the region over the past several weeks have proven that his doubtful stance was warranted. A rogue nation that develops or acquires weapons of mass destruction might very well use them. Netanyahu insists that only a credible military threat could stop Iran’s nuclearization.

In a recent meeting on Iran, which included both civilian and military officials, the participants were briefed that Iran’s economy has lost some $100 billion over the past 18 months as a result of the Western sanctions. Considering the fact that the annual scope of Iran’s economic activity normally amount to about $450 billion, this is a crushing blow.

The U.S. zigzag — spearheaded by Obama and his Secretary of State John Kerry — has generated consternation among officials in Jerusalem. But there is still a long way to go before the U.S. leaves Israel in the lurch, a scenario mentioned by Yedioth Ahronoth columnist Eitan Haber. Both U.S. and Israeli leaders have already made the same declarations, and the bottom line is that the U.S. will not let Iran have a nuclear weapon. This pledge binds both the president and the U.S. as a whole. However, as we all know, U.S. and Israeli clocks are not identical and they show different times. Israel’s proximity to Iran has made it more vulnerable and more anxious. If Israel feels there is an emerging danger, it would take steps to remove it. This is not a threat, it is a modus operandi. The Americans would not interfere nor would they stop Israel if it decides to act against Iran.

And what about Iran? Iran wants to offset the Western sanctions and to buy time, all the while cleverly advancing toward a bomb. Iran has been sweet-talking its way to that goal. Rouhani and the ayatollahs’ regime have been trying to approach the West using a softer diplomatic language, hoping to convince the world that they are seeking a diplomatic solution to the nuclear standoff.

This conciliatory language is what led to Rouhani’s election in the first place, as he had promised to have the sanctions lifted through words. This approach lies in stark contrast to that of his predecessor, Mahmoud Ahmadinejad.

Now, after Obama and Rouhani have exchanged letters, and after Kerry and his Iranian counterpart Javad Zarif, met and shook hands — when the two attended a meeting alongside the Russian, Chinese, French, German and British foreign ministers — everyone is thinking about their next move.

The U.S. has been trying to allay Israel’s fears: “We will not take Iran’s bait,” is a common refrain in the White House, the Pentagon, the House of Representatives and the Senate. They stress that another diplomatic attempt is being made to stop the nuclear madness.

The U.N. General Assembly has coincided with the a Palestinian Authority donors conference. The Quartet — comprising the EU, the U.N., the U.S. and Russia — is scheduled to convene this week to discuss the Middle East. Chief Palestinian Negotiator Saeb Erekat and Justice Minister Tzipi Livni will also attend the conference, and both are expected to brief the gatherers on peace talks. U.S. special envoy Martin Indyk will deliver a speech at the upcoming J Street conference. So although the Iranian issue is front and center for the prime minister, the Palestinian issue will not be neglected.

Speaking of the Palestinian-Israeli talks, the Americans have set a deadline for a permanent peace accord: May 2014. The two sides are to discuss all the core issue, determine the new borders, decide on the future of the refugees and agree on the status of Jerusalem. This will be the negotiators’ eighth meeting since the talks were resumed. More deadly terrorists are expected to be released in October, pursuant to a government decision stipulating the release of 104 Palestinian prisoners who have been incarcerated since before the Oslo Accords.

The pressure on Israel has continued nevertheless, and it is still required to give some goodies to the Palestinians. This time the Gaza Strip is included.

So where is all this heading? Netanyahu may have answered that question in his recent speech at the state’s official Yom Kippur War memorial service: “It is incumbent upon the nation’s leadership to be sober, so that it does not get caught up in illusions and false hopes. It must have a complete view of the strategic landscape. It must always be ready. Sometimes, it must make a tough decision between what’s bad and what’s worse. And it must ensure the continued existence of the State of Israel.” His rhetoric suggests that an agreement is possible — if the Palestinians do the unthinkable and actually compromise.

Musical chairs

Those in Netanyahu’s inner circle are on their way out, but next week they will all stand next to him. National Security Council Director Maj. Gen. (res.) Yaakov Amidror is expected to leave at the end of October. Former Mossad Deputy Director Yossi Cohen is already being groomed for the job by Amidror at the Prime Minister’s Office. They will both accompany Netanyahu to the United Nations, but more importantly, they will be there at his side when he meets Obama. In Washington, Netanyahu will meet the outgoing Israeli Ambassador to the U.S. Michael Oren, who will leave his post by the end of the month. He will also meet with his replacement, Ron Dermer, who used to be his close adviser on foreign policy. He is already preparing for his new job. Prime Minister’s Office Bureau Chief Gil Sheffer will also depart. Former Netanyahu adviser Ari Harow will replace him.

Netanyahu has a very centralized managerial style. He likes to micro-manage every detail. He has very good command of the Iranian issue and other foreign policy matters. When it comes to domestic politics, however, things are not so great, with some people expressing concern over the various pitfalls. He has recently had to deal with people being insulted, with turf and ego wars between the ministers and with party activists applying their own pressure.

The preoccupation with the peace process has resulted in a restless coalition. The recent murders of two soldiers — Tomer Hazan and Gal Kobi — has already prompted seven ministers from Habayit Hayehudi and Likud-Beytenu to sign a letter asking the prime minister to reconsider the upcoming prisoner release. Ministers Yisrael Katz, Naftali Bennett, Ori Orbach, Uri Ariel, Uzi Landau, Sofa Landver and Yair Shamir want to see the murders affect the talks between Livni and Erekat.

There is another letter, which is just as combative. It is signed by six deputy ministers — Zeev Elkin, Ofir Akunis, Danny Danon, Tzipi Hotovely (all from Likud), Rabbi Eli Ben-Dahan and Avi Wortzman (Habayit Hayehudi) — and another 13 MK, including Coalition Chairman and Likud Faction Leader Yariv Levin and another six faction leaders and two deputy Knesset speakers. They want the prime minister to suspend the peace process. “You will soon depart on your way to a meeting with the U.S. president as the representative of Israel, and you will also speak on behalf of the country before the U.N. We call upon you to clarify Israel’s official stance — that the Jewish people have natural, historic and legal rights on their entire homeland and on their eternal capital Jerusalem. Twenty years after the terrible Oslo Accords, it is our belief that a return to the Oslo framework, including the relinquishing of territory to the Palestinian Authority, would be the wrong course of action.”

These letters represent a trend. Ministers and MKs are going out against the very position Netanyahu is advocating on the worlds stage. Danny Danon has done it in the most blatant way (in an op-ed in the New York Times and Haaretz). But he is not the only one. Other politicos and coalition MKs are expressing their views without any hindrances.

Hotovely told a group of Likud activists this week that the “Prime Minister must heed the requests of all the party segments [to nullify the decision to release terrorists]. The Likud Party has set red lines for every concession in the peace process. He who is the helm of the party cannot divorce himself from the what the overwhelming majority of the party wants.” Will Netanyahu listen? We will wait and find out very shortly.