WarSclerotic

World powers say window open for Iran nuclear deal | The Times of Israel.

Diplomats ask Tehran to come back with more detailed proposal; Kerry and Iranian counterpart Zarif hold one-on-one meeting

By Lara Jakes and Matthew Lee September 27, 2013, 8:57 am

Seated at the table from left, US Secretary of State John Kerry, Iranian Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif and European Union foreign policy chief Catherine Ashton attend a meeting of the five permanent members of the Security Council plus Germany on Thursday, Sept. 26, 2013. (photo credit: AP/Jason DeCrow)

UNITED NATIONS (AP) — The US and its international partners emerged from a meeting with Iran declaring that a “window of opportunity has opened” to peacefully settle their nuclear standoff. But diplomats asked Tehran to come back with a detailed plan of action to reassure the world it is not trying to build an atomic bomb.

The upbeat, if guarded, tone after the meeting of Iran, the five permanent members of the UN Security Council and Germany was seen as a significant step forward after months of stalled talks. It was capped by an unexpected one-on-one meeting between US Secretary of State John Kerry and Iranian Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif, who shook hands and at one point sat side-by-side in the group talks on Thursday.

It was the highest-level direct contact between the United States and Iran in six years.

In another sign of building momentum, both sides agreed to fast-track negotiations and hold a substantive round of talks on Oct. 15-16 in Geneva. Iran, hoping to get relief from punishing international sanctions as fast as possible, said it hoped a resolution could be reached within a year.

“We agreed to jump-start the process so that we could move forward with a view to agreeing first on the parameters of the end game … and move toward finalizing it hopefully within a year’s time,” Zarif said after the talks. “I thought I was too ambitious, bordering on naiveté. But I saw that some of my colleagues were even more ambitious and wanted to do it faster.”

European Union foreign policy chief Catherine Ashton also said the parties had agreed to “go forward with an ambitious timeframe.”

Kerry said he was struck by the “very different tone” from Iran. But along with his European colleagues, he stressed that a single meeting was not enough to assuage international concerns that Iran is seeking to develop nuclear weapons under cover of a civilian atomic energy program.

“Needless to say, one meeting and a change in tone, that was welcome, does not answer those questions,” Kerry told reporters. “All of us were pleased that the foreign minister came today and that he did put some possibilities on the table.”

He said they agreed to try to find concrete ways to answer the questions that people have about Iran’s nuclear activities.

As the group meeting was ending, Kerry leaned over and asked Zarif: “Shall we talk for a few minutes.”

A senior US official said that in the one-on-one meeting, aides from both sides chatted in a marked departure from past encounters, when the Iranians were tight-lipped. It was one of the signs of a new attitude, said the official who spoke on condition of anonymity because he was not authorized to talk to the media.

The official also said Zarif presented a number of ideas — many that had come up before — but they were not particularly detailed. The Americans asked Zarif to come back at the Geneva round or even earlier with some more detailed proposals.

Zarif said the end result would have to include “a total lifting” of the international sanctions that have ravaged Iran’s economy.

“We hope … to make sure (there is) no concern that Iran’s program is anything but peaceful,” he said. “Now we have to see whether we can match our positive words with serious deeds so we can move forward.”

British Foreign Secretary William Hague said there had been a “big improvement in the tone and spirit” from Iran compared with the previous government under Mahmoud Ahmadinejad.

German Foreign Minister Guido Westerwelle said the meeting had taken place in a “completely different tone, atmosphere and spirit” than what the group was used to and that a “window of opportunity has opened” for a peaceful resolution of the situation. He too insisted that Iran’s words would have to be matched by actions.

“Words are not enough,” he said. “Actions and tangible results are what counts. The devil is in the detail, so it is now important that we have substantial and serious negotiations very soon.”

Iranian President Hassan Rouhani and Zarif, both in New York this week to attend the UN General Assembly, have said they are anxious to clinch an agreement quickly that could bring relief from sanctions. The sanctions have slashed Iran’s vital oil exports by more than half, restricted its international bank transfers, devalued its currency and sent inflation surging.

Encouraged by signs that Rouhani will adopt a more moderate stance than Ahmadinejad, but skeptical that the country’s all-powerful supreme leader will allow a change in course, President Barack Obama has directed Kerry to lead a new outreach and explore possibilities for resolving the long-standing dispute.

Rouhani has come across as a more moderate face of the hard-line clerical regime in Tehran and his pronouncements at the UN have raised guarded hopes that progress might be possible. But they have also served as a reminder that the path to that progress will not be quick or easy.

He has steadfastly maintained that any nuclear agreement must recognize Iran’s right under international treaties to continue enriching uranium.

The U.S. and its allies have long demanded a halt to enrichment, fearing Tehran could secretly build nuclear warheads. They have imposed sanctions over Iran’s refusal to halt enrichment. Uranium enriched to low levels can be used as fuel for nuclear energy but at higher levels, it can be used to make a nuclear weapon.

Rouhani also insisted that any deal be contingent on all other nations declaring their nuclear programs, too, are solely for peaceful purposes — alluding to the US and Israel.

Those conditions underscored that there is still a large chasm to be bridged in negotiations.

Rouhani has made a series of appearances and speeches since arriving in New York and has held bilateral negotiations with France, Turkey and Japan among others.

On Thursday, he called for worldwide disarmament of nuclear weapons as “our highest priority.”

Speaking at the first-ever meeting of a UN forum on nuclear disarmament on behalf of the Non-Aligned Movement, an organization of mostly developing countries, Rouhani repeated the organization’s long-standing demand that Israel join the international treaty banning the spread of nuclear weapons.

Israel, which has repeatedly accused Iran of aspiring to build a nuclear bomb, is the only Mideast state that has not signed the landmark 1979 Non-Proliferation Treaty.

Rouhani appears to be trying to tone down Ahmadinejad’s caustic rhetoric against Israel — a point of friction in relations with the U.S. But Israel is not biting and reacted angrily to his latest remarks.

“Iran’s new president is playing an old and familiar game by trying to deflect attention from Iran’s nuclear weapons program,” said Intelligence and International Affairs Minister Yuval Steinitz. “The problem of the NPT in the Middle East is not with those countries which have not signed the NPT, but countries like Iran, Iraq, Libya and Syria which have signed the treaty and brazenly violated it,” he added.

“Unlike Iran, Israel has never threatened the destruction of another country,” he said.

Iran watchers say Rouhani may have limited time to reach a settlement — possibly a year or less — before Khamenei decides negotiations are fruitless.

At a separate forum across the city, Rouhani said his government is ready to work with the world powers and others to ensure full transparency under international law regarding the nuclear program.

“My government is prepared to leave no stone unturned in seeking for a mutually acceptable solution,” he said.

Iran, UN agency hold ‘constructive’ talks | The Times of Israel.

Illustrative photo of the Bushehr nuclear facility in Iran (photo credit: AP/Mehr News Agency/Majid Asgaripour/File)

VIENNA (AP) — Iranian and UN officials are upbeat at the end of talks on resuming a UN probe to determine whether Tehran worked on atomic arms, in a sign that Iran’s new president is serious when he says he wants to reduce nuclear tensions.

Herman Nackaerts of the UN’s nuclear agency says the talks were “very constructive.” Iranian envoy Reza Najafi speaks of a “constructive discussion.” Both say the talks will resume Oct. 28, with Nackaerts saying they will be “substantive.”

The two spoke Friday at the end of talks aimed at ending a nearly two-year stalemate. The UN agency wants access to a site it suspects was used to test conventional explosive triggers meant to set off a nuclear blast.

Iran denies working on, or interest in, nuclear arms.

Copyright 2013 The Associated Press

Superpower Ltd. – Israel Opinion, Ynetnews.

Op-ed: Based on President Obama’s previous term, his plan to focus on Arab-Israeli conflict is bad news for those seeking Mideast peace

Yoaz Hendel

Obama of 2013 is a realistic president: The words are big, the intentions small. Behind his celebratory speech before the UN General Assembly is a limited company that does not want to get involved in the wars of others. Obama’s America is a limited company. It is willing to intervene and help, but only to a certain extent. The American messages cannot change the impression created following the “solution” to the Syrian problem. The US is dealing with its domestic issues. There is no good or bad, only good declarations or bad declarations.

In contrast to Obama’s remarks, the world during his second term is more complex and dangerous. Fundamentalist Islam is gaining power, Muslims are butchering Muslims all across the Middle East, while poverty and backwardness have been the only things that have remained stable in the region since Obama won the Nobel Peace Prize. In the battle of cultures over the values of liberty and progress, the West is retreating, and the American president’s speeches are not changing this fact.

The American policy of focusing on domestic affairs is also evident when it comes to the Iranian issue. The possibility of using military force to terminate Iran’s race towards a nuclear bomb is becoming more distant as Rohani comes closer.

In ancient Persian culture there are many tales about the power of seduction. Rohani is dancing and the king is enchanted. His words are pleasant to western ears. They remind the West of its lack of desire to confront. During the eight years of Mahmoud Ahmadinejad’s presidency, intelligence agencies all over the world tried to determine just how much Iran’s actions are based on logic. As Ahmadinejad’s statements became increasingly extreme, it became easier to convince the western world to tighten the sanctions against him.

The West was seeking a way to avoid a confrontation, but Ahmadinejad only brought such a clash closer. The more he called for Israel’s annihilation, the easier it became to expose Iran’s involvement in global terror. Had Ahmadinejad acted moderately, a senior Israeli security official once said, the world would have rolled out a red carpet for him and allowed him do whatever he wanted behind the scenes.

Ahmadinejad’s actions were irrational and made people wonder, but Rohani is acting by the book and is achieving results. In the near term, President Obama said, the US will focus on Iran and the Arab-Israeli conflict. Based on his previous term, this is bad news for those who seek peace in the Middle East.

Hezbollah gambles all in Syria – Israel News, Ynetnews.

Official sources lay out just how deep Nasrallah wades in the Syrian mire: Iranian-trained hit-squads, fighting rebels on all fronts, global money-laundering enterprise. Hezbollah founder convinced: It’s a fateful mistake. Special report from Beirut

Reuters

In the photograph the two robed men stand shoulder-to-shoulder, one tall and erect, the other more heavyset. Both smile for the camera. The picture from Tehran is a rare record of Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei meeting Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah, the head of Hezbollah , the Lebanese Shiite paramilitary group.

Taken in April during a discreet visit by the Hezbollah chief to his financial and ideological masters, the photograph captured a turning point in Syria’s civil war and the broader struggle between Sunnis and Shiites, the two main branches of Islam. It was the moment when Iran made public its desire for Hezbollah to join the battle to help save Syria’s President Bashar Assad, diplomats said. At the time, Assad and his Alawite sect, an offshoot of Shiite Islam, were losing ground to an advancing Sunni insurgency.

Within days of returning home, Nasrallah gave a televised speech making it clear that Hezbollah would fight alongside Assad to prevent Syria falling “into the hands” of Sunni jihadi radicals, the United States and Israel. The very survival of the Shiites was at stake, he said.

Iran’s Khaminei with Nasrallah. A turning point

Lebanese Syria-supporters (Photo: Reuters)

Soon afterwards, fighters from Hezbollah – which until then had largely stayed out of its neighbor’s civil war – entered Syria. In June they helped Assad’s forces recapture the strategic town of Qusair and other territory, turning the war in Assad’s favour.

Regional security officials told Reuters there are now between 2,000 and 4,000 Hezbollah fighters,

experts and reservists in Syria. One Lebanese security official said a central command in Iran led by the Revolutionary Guards directs Hezbollah operations in Syria in close coordination with the Syrian authorities. Another source said Hezbollah had “hit squads” of highly trained fighters in Syria whose task is to assassinate military leaders among the Sunni rebels.

Hezbollah declined to comment for this report on its involvement in Syria. Nasrallah has previously said it is necessary for Hezbollah to fight Sunni radicals allied to al Qaeda.

Officials in Iran did not respond to requests for comment. Last week, Iran’s foreign ministry spokeswoman, Marzieh Afkham, said that Iran had no official military presence in Syria, but was providing humanitarian assistance. Last September, Mohammad Ali Jafari, head of the Revolutionary Guards, said some members of Iran’s elite Quds force were in Syria but that it did not constitute “a military presence.”

Hezbollah’s role in Syria has ramifications not just in its home in Lebanon but across the region. If Assad wins, Iran’s influence along the shores of the Mediterranean will grow. If he loses, Hezbollah and Iran’s reach will likely be damaged. For some members of the group, the fight is an existential one.

Khaminei. Behind the curtain (Photo: FP PHOTO/HO/KHAMENEI.IR)

Reuters has learned that a few voices within Hezbollah, which is considered a terrorist organization by the United States and Europe, opposed joining the conflict in Syria. Two prominent members feared intervention would drag Hezbollah and the Shiite community into a quagmire; they questioned where the group would draw the line after Qusair.

Sheikh Subhi al-Tufayli, who led Hezbollah from 1989 to 1991, said the decision to intervene had been entirely down to the Islamic Republic of Iran. “I was secretary general of the party and I know that the decision is Iranian, and the alternative would have been a confrontation with the Iranians,” Tufayli, who fell out with Iran and his former group, told Reuters at his home in the Eastern Bekaa Valley near the Syrian border. “I know that the Lebanese in Hezbollah, and Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah more than anyone, are not convinced about this war.”

Such doubts are repeated across the Middle East. Shiite groups, clerics and communities in places such as Iraq are struggling with whether to back Assad or not.

But the critical voices were ignored and eventually silenced. “Even if (Hezbollah) has its wise men, the decision (to fight in Syria) is not theirs,” said a Lebanese security official who, like most people Reuters spoke to for this report, would not be named. “The decision is for those who created and established it. They are obliged to follow Iran’s orders.”

A Lebanese politician summed up the point, saying: “Nasrallah is not going to say ‘No’ to someone who has given him $30 billion over the past 30 years.”

Strike Force

The paramilitary group – its name means the Party of God in Arabic – was originally conceived at the Iranian embassy in Damascus in 1982. Its main aim was to fight Israeli forces that had invaded Lebanon that year.

It became notorious for suicide-bombings, kidnappings and hijackings as it drove Israel back towards its border with Lebanon; it also pushed US and European forces out of Beirut following the Israeli invasion and during Iran’s war against Iraq, which the West had armed and backed.

Hezbollah came to serve as a subcontractor buttressing the strategic interests of its Iranian paymasters, forming a military front with Syria and Iran against Israel and the United States. Domestically, it

spearheaded the rise of Lebanese Shiites from an underclass community to, by some lights, the most powerful sect in the country.

Its paramilitary forces are now more powerful than the Lebanese army and even some Arab armies, regional experts say. It has an Iranian-trained strike force numbering around 7,000, with some 20,000 reservists, according to security officials and diplomats.

Hezbollah stronghold blast, 2013 (Photo: AP)

Nasrallah speaks (Photo: AFP)

In Syria, the discipline and training of Hezbollah fighters paid off most significantly in June, when Assad’s regime recaptured the town of Qusair, about 10 km (6 miles) from the Lebanese border. A regional security official said: “(The battle for) Qusair was basically a Hezbollah operation, from the planning to the handling of key weapon systems. It is our understanding the Hezbollah crews were even operating Syrian T-55 and T-54 tanks there, as well as all significant artillery systems, anti-tank missiles and so on.”

Since then, Hezbollah has expanded its deployment in Syria to every area where rebels are present, a regional security source who declined to be identified said.

The group has beefed up its presence around the capital Damascus, the border area and the city of Homs, which is strategically located between Damascus and the mountain heartland of Assad’s minority Alawite sect.

Its main task is to prevent rebel groups, mainly Sunni jihadis linked to al Qaeda, such as the al-Nusra Front, from entering the heart of the capital. “It is (Shiite) Hezbollah versus (Sunni) al-Nusra Front and other jihadis now in Syria,” said one military observer.

The regional security source said: “In these places, Hezbollah is hunkering down in fixed positions because it understands that the fighting will be protracted and will shape its fate in Lebanon. Its actions are taken in full coordination with the Syrian military, and Iranian experts provide it with military and technological assistance.”

Hezbollah is also putting down roots in Bosra al-Sham, south of Damascus, and other places on the Syrian side of the Golan Heights, a strategic plateau in southwestern Syria occupied by Israel, said the source. The group wants to prevent weapons being sent from Lebanon to rebels in Syria, and to stop rebels moving the other way. To do so, it sets up ambush points and lays mines on cross-border routes, said the regional security source.

“Where in the past Hezbollah deployment in Syria was focused on protecting Shiite populations, now it is everywhere there is fighting with the rebels,” said the source.

Hezbollah fighters serve as the prime instructors for the Syrian militias that provide Assad’s most loyal forces, said the same source. “Hezbollah also has hit squads, covert units selected from among its best fighters and trained by Iranians, whose mission is to assassinate Sunni opposition leaders and Free Syrian Army commanders in Damascus and Aleppo,” he said.

Hezbollah did not comment on its involvement in Syria.

As well as its standard weapons, Hezbollah is using new arms, mostly from Iran, that are flown in to Damascus or Beirut. Hezbollah has also received weapons from the Syrian army, including flame throwers, said the source.

Weapons are moved from Lebanon into Syria with high frequency and little difficulty, given the control that

the Syrian regime and Hezbollah wield over the border crossings, the source said.

The Iranian Revolutionary Guards Corps and Quds force, and the Syrian military high command, operate a war room to coordinate Syrian army and Hezbollah operations. This war room was initially responsible for deploying Hezbollah fighters in Syria on specific operations. But more recently, “Hezbollah was … given

responsibility over geographical areas as well as over security installations,” said the source.

Secure Base

Supporting its fighters in Syria is Hezbollah’s network of political and commercial interests in Lebanon. The group now has 12 seats in Lebanon’s parliament, two ministers in the current caretaker cabinet, a radio and satellite television station, and a community network that provides everything from health and education to pensions and housing.

As well as penetrating the army and security services, it places allies in every significant ministry, government office, or state-owned enterprise and key institutions, according to Lebanese political and security sources.

At the Beirut harbor, Hezbollah has a dock of its own, according to two Lebanese security sources. Shiite merchants linked to Hezbollah bring consignments through the dock to avoid paying custom duties, sell them at prices lower than competitors, and donate some of the profits to the group, the security and political sources said.

In addition, the group has investments in Lebanon and abroad, including construction, supermarkets, petrol stations, and industry projects. “They have their own money-laundering operations,” one Lebanese politician said. “They legalize hot money through high cash-generating businesses and front companies such as real estate, cell phone shops, valet parking companies and religious foundations.”

Former US Treasury official Matthew Levitt, a fellow at the Washington Institute and author of the forthcoming “Hezbollah: The Global Footprint of Lebanon’s Party of God,” said the group is engaged in a broad array of illicit activities, from counterfeiting currencies, documents and goods to credit card fraud, money-laundering, arms smuggling and narcotics trafficking. Hezbollah, one investigator quipped, is like the “Gambinos on steroids.”

Hezbollah man in every Lebanese institution (Photo: AFP)

Hariri supporters in Lebanon (Photo: Reuters)

Hezbollah has regularly denied such allegations.

Politically, Hezbollah can make or break Tammam Salam, the Sunni politician tasked in April with forming a new government in Lebanon. The group enjoys a veto on all policy decisions – a power it secured after a long standoff between it and the Sunni-led government which began after the 2006 war with Israel.

“If Hezbollah wants to form a government then it will be formed; if they don’t, it won’t. They are the most powerful force on the ground. They are more powerful than the state,” said a Western diplomat.

Hezbollah’s creeping hegemony in Lebanon began after the 2005 killing of former prime minister Rafik al-Hariri, a Sunni Muslim billionaire who used money, influence and international clout to win support across Lebanon’s sectarian divides.

Hariri, who had close links to Saudi Arabia and the West, was assassinated in Beirut by a car bomb in which UN investigators saw the trademark handiwork of Syria, and for which four Hezbollah members were subsequently indicted. None of the four has been arrested. The group denies any involvement in the killing.

Hariri’s killing prompted an international outcry which forced Hezbollah’s ally Syria to end its 29-year military presence in Lebanon. But it also removed from the scene the one man who could have challenged Hezbollah’s dominance.

“If he were still alive, he would have had the majority in government and the position of (Hezbollah) would have been difficult,” said Tufayli, the former Hezbollah leader.

The Lebanese security figure said Hariri was killed in a joint Iranian-Syrian plan executed by Hezbollah elements without Nasrallah’s knowledge.

Hezbollah has shown itself unwilling to countenance the smallest threat. In June when unarmed Shiites protested outside the Iranian embassy in Beirut against Iran’s military involvement in Syria, Hezbollah gunmen, dressed in black and armed with handguns, charged the crowd, killing one protester.

Car bomb reprisals

Syria presents wider risks. Under Nasrallah, Hezbollah initially tried to maintain a balance between its role in Lebanon and its ambitions as an Islamist vanguard of Iran in the region. The intervention in Syria has ended this ambiguity, placing Hezbollah in the frontline of the regional conflict between the Western-backed Sunni Arab powers and Shiite Iran.

The chaos threatens to unleash sectarian demons from Beirut to Baghdad. Reprisals against Hezbollah have already begun: In May, rockets were fired at the Hezbollah-controlled southern suburbs of Beirut, and since then several car bombs have exploded in Lebanon.

“Hezbollah entered a Sunni-Shiite conflict declaring jihad, so they should expect counter-jihad in return,” said one Sunni opposition figure.

Tufayli, the former Hezbollah leader, said the group’s intervention in Syria was a fatal miscalculation. The conflict, he said, is becoming a sectarian proxy war that minority Shiites will never win.

“Until recently, I had thought that armed resistance (against Israel) is a top priority and a precious goal… Those seeking to fortify the resistance should not drag it into war between Sunnis and Shiites… That

strife will consume everybody,” he said.

Spending billions

The war is imposing huge costs on both Hezbollah and Iran, which is already under crippling international sanctions because of its nuclear ambitions.

A regional security official with access to current intelligence assessments put Hezbollah’s annual income at between $800 million and $1 billion, with 70-90 percent coming from Iran, the amount partly depending on the price of oil. The group’s remaining funds come through private Shiite donors, “protection rackets and business and mafia networks in Lebanon,” said the source.

Apart from its involvement in Syria, Hezbollah pays salaries to 60,000-80,000 people working for charities, schools, clinics and other institutions in addition to its military and security apparatus, other Shiite sources said.

Other security sources said Hezbollah is now receiving additional funds dedicated to the Syrian war.

“Syria is sucking up Iran’s reserves, with the Islamic Republic paying between $600-700 million a month (just towards the cost of fighting in Syria),” said a top Lebanese security official. Those figures could not be confirmed.

And the price is not just financial: Hezbollah’s involvement in Syria has hurt its support at home. “There isn’t a single village in the south that has not lost a member (in Syria),” said Ali al-Amin, a Shiite columnist and a critic of Hezbollah.

Most Lebanese Shiites, though, still support the group. “A large chunk of society is rallying behind Hezbollah because they regard their ties to it as existential,” said Amin. “They say ‘we are with it whether it goes to hell or heaven.'”

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Photo: AP File Photo

Iran unveils new long-distance attack drone | The Times of Israel.

Revolutionary Guard claims Shahed-129 can fly up to a distance of 1,700 kilometers, putting much of the Middle East in range

Illustrative photo of an Iranian drone (photo credit: AP/ISNA, Hemmat Khahi)

Iran’s Revolutionary Guard has unveiled an attack drone, capable of carrying missiles and described as the unit’s “most sophisticated” so far.

The Guard’s website, sepahnews.com, says Gen. Mohammad Ali Jafari unveiled the drone Friday.

He is quoted as saying the all-Iranian-made drone is a strategic asset in protecting the nation’s borders.

The website says the drone, dubbed Shahed-129, or Witness-129, can fly up to a distance of 1,700 kilometers (1,062 miles), which puts much of the Middle East within its range.

It says the drone has a 24-hour non-stop flight capability, can carry eight bombs or missiles, and hit both fixed and moving targets.

Iran has claimed to have captured several US drones, including an advanced RQ-170 Sentinel CIA spy drone in December 2011 and at least three ScanEagle aircraft.

Copyright 2013 The Associated Press

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