WarSclerotic

‘Netanyahu backed Russian chemical arms deal in call to Kerry’ | The Times of Israel.

PM reportedly told US secretary of state last week that he believed Moscow was serious about removing Syrian chemical weapons

By AP and Times of Israel staff September 16, 2013, 11:45 am

John Kerry, left, and Benjamin Netanyahu and a press conference in Jerusalem Sunday. (photo credit: US State Department)

Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu told US Secretary of State John Kerry last week that he should try to reach a deal with Russia to confiscate Syria’s chemical weapons arsenal as an alternative to a threatened US strike on the Assad regime, the Wall Street Journal reported Monday.

According to the report, Kerry called Netanyahu on September 11 and the Israeli leader told him that he didn’t think that Russia was bluffing about its plan for Syria.

The report was based on information from US and Middle East officials who were informed of the details of the conversation.

Netanyahu also reportedly told Kerry he thought a deal was possible.

On Saturday the US and Russia agreed to guidelines which would see Syria give up its chemical weapons stockpile by the middle of next year.

On Sunday, Netanyahu and other Israeli officials expressed cautious optimism over the deal, saying it would be tested by Syria’s actions.

Kerry later met with Netanyahu to discuss the Syrian chemical weapons deal, during a short stop in the country.

On Monday, Kerry continued his diplomatic push to gain international support for the deal, briefing some of the United States’ closest allies, many of whom are suspicious about the Moscow-brokered proposal.

A day after visiting Israel, Kerry was due to meet with top officials from France, Britain, Turkey and Saudi Arabia, who had pressed for military strikes on Syria after the August 21 poison gas attack that killed hundreds.

US and Russian officials reached an ambitious agreement over the weekend calling for an inventory of Syria’s chemical weapons program within a week, with the program eradicated by mid-2014.

A UN resolution under discussion Monday would detail how Syria can secure and destroy its stockpile.

An official close to France’s President Francois Hollande said there was firm agreement among France, Britain and the United States that the resolution must be “strong, robust, precise” and must include a calendar of benchmarks for Assad. The official spoke on condition of anonymity because of the sensitivity of the topic.

Kerry, British Foreign Secretary William Hague and Hollande also agreed to continue to work toward a political solution with the Syrian opposition, the officials said.

A report by weapons inspectors on the alleged Damascus chemical attack was expected to be released later Monday.

Russia Gains Clout With Syria Initiative – WSJ.com.

Deal to Stop Western Military Intervention Elevates Kremlin on Diplomatic stage

GREGORY L. WHITE

MOSCOW—The Kremlin’s 11th-hour initiative to forestall Western military intervention against its client, Syrian President Bashar al-Assad, has vaulted the Kremlin to the center of the global stage in its most dramatic diplomatic coup in years.

For President Vladimir Putin, who has publicly lamented Russia’s fading influence and the woes of what he saw as the U.S.’s dangerous global hegemony since he came to power in 2000, the turnabout is especially sweet, two weeks after it looked as if Moscow was running out of options. But the Syria initiative, which calls for bringing Damascus’s arsenal of chemical weapons under international control, has risks for Moscow, which now must ensure that its often-recalcitrant ally is cooperative enough to avoid sabotaging the process.

Taking their cue from Mr. Putin’s triumphal op-ed article in the New York Times last week, in which he lectured the American people on the failings of U.S. policy in the Middle East, Russian officials have been jubilant for days.

“Putin is the one getting applause for preventing war,” read a comment over the weekend on the Twitter account of Alexei Pushkov, a senior member of the ruling party and chairman of the International Affairs Committee in parliament. “Obama didn’t convince many people. Half the world is with Russia in this tug of war.”

Mr. Putin sought to underline that on Friday, meeting in Kyrgyzstan with the leaders of China, Iran and a number of Central Asian countries for a regularly scheduled summit of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization, a Sino-Russian-led security bloc. The leaders all hailed Moscow’s handling of the crisis. Iranian President Hassan Rouhani invited Mr. Putin to try his hand at easing the standoff between Tehran and the West over Iran’s nuclear program.

“Now is the best opportunity for new steps on your part,” Mr. Rouhani said at the start of the meeting.

The effusive praise from around the world was repeated in the Kremlin-controlled media. Though a client since the Soviet era, Syria itself isn’t a major issue in Russia, polls show. But nostalgia for the great-power status enjoyed in the Soviet era is a powerful force across the political spectrum there.

Since he returned to the presidency in 2012, Mr. Putin has sought to capitalize on this sentiment with a consistent campaign of anti-Westernism inside Russia, increasingly portraying Moscow as the center of a conservative civilization at odds with the U.S. and Europe.

Until now, however, most of the Kremlin’s efforts to reassert itself internationally were confined to relations with its former Soviet neighbors. Initiatives further afield, such as proposals for easing tensions over Iran’s nuclear program or grand plans for European security, got little traction.

“Russia has been in the best case a marginal actor,” said a senior European diplomat.

“There’s been nothing like this before,” said Georgy Mirsky, a Middle East specialist at the state-run Institute for World Economy and International Relations in Moscow. “Russia has won,” he added. “America didn’t so much lose as it was humiliated.”

Mr. Mirsky said the Kremlin appears to have seen Western ambivalence about military action as an opening, catching the Obama administration off guard. Days before the initiative was announced, Mr. Putin lambasted the U.S. in undiplomatic language even by his brusque standards, accusing Secretary of State John Kerry of “lying” to Congress about the extent of al Qaeda influence among the Syria opposition.

On Saturday, Mr. Kerry publicly thanked Mr. Putin “for his willingness to pick up on the possibility of negotiating an end to Syrian weapons of mass destruction.”

“Putin can now present himself as a great peacemaker—his acolytes in Russia are calling for him to be awarded the Nobel Peace Prize—and the leader of a country that has reasserted its “great power” status alongside the United States,” said Mark Kramer, professor of Cold War studies at Harvard University. Moscow remains committed to protecting the Assad regime from being held responsible for using chemical weapons or for the other 100,000 deaths in the civil war, he said.

While Moscow’s assertiveness did unsettle some U.S. diplomats, U.S. officials say the Kremlin has, at least temporarily, gone from being part of the problem in Syria to part of a possible solution. The idea of pushing Damascus to give up its chemical weapons had been discussed by U.S. and Russian officials for at least a year, diplomats say, but Moscow appeared unwilling or unable to force the Assad regime to comply. The current deal has changed that.

“The agreement reached [Saturday] is a win for both Moscow and Washington—provided that it is implemented, which remains far from certain,” said Steven Pifer, senior fellow at the Brookings Institution and a former ambassador. “Implementation could well require the Russians to lean on Damascus if the Syrians drag their feet. Is Moscow prepared to do that?”

For the moment, the Kremlin has bought precious time for the Assad regime to continue pressuring the opposition on the battlefield and likely won new loyalty from its client. Though Moscow decries supplies of arms to the rebels, it has kept up a steady flow of sophisticated weapons to the regime.

“Even if in the end, Bashar Assad loses and he’s driven out or killed, Putin won’t look like a loser,” said Mr. Mirsky. “The propaganda line will be that we weren’t defending him, we were defending the principle” of nonintervention and international law.

In addition to demonstrating the limits of U.S. global power, the Kremlin is eager to show others in the region that it can be a powerful player there, officials say. Containing the Syrian conflict—even if that means it goes on for years—is also an important priority, given Russia’s concern about the spread of Islamic extremism, a problem Moscow faces on its own territory as well.

—Alan Cullison contributed to this article.

Report: Syria is transferring chemical weapons to Hezbollah to avoid international inspection | JPost | Israel News.

Syrian opposition member tells Saudi paper Al Watan weapons will be stored in Hezbollah-controlled mountain areas in Lebanon; also claims some chemical arms smuggled onto Russian battleships stationed off Syrian coast.

Ex-British army colonel to Post: Russian-US plan on Syria chemical weapons ‘not realistic’ | JPost | Israel News.

Obama pushes Syrian chemical diplomacy for a nuclear Iran – overriding Israel’s concerns.

Kerry briefs Netanyahu on Syria chemical deal

US President Barack Obama did not wait for the Kerry-Lavrov agreement of Saturday, Sept. 14, for the eradication of Syria’s chemical weapons, to demonstrate its feasibility. The next day, he jumped in to tell Tehran that “there’s the potential for diplomatic solutions to arms standoffs,” in an interview with ABC TV.   

“The Iranians understand that their pursuit of a nuclear weapon is a far larger issue for us than the use of chemical weapons in Syria,” he said. “My suspicion is that the Iranians recognize they shouldn’t draw a lesson that we haven’t struck [Syria] to think we won’t strike Iran.”
But that is exactly what they have understood from the way he backed out of a US military strike on Syria – and so have Moscow and Damascus.

Obama also revealed that he has exchanged letters with the new Iranian president Hassan Rouhani, but did not reveal their content. He added: He (Rouhani) understands the potential for a diplomatic solution to his country’s disputed nuclear program but will not “suddenly make it easy.”
In Jerusalem, US Secretary of State John Kerry was mindful of the torrent of criticism landing on the deal he struck with Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov in Geneva Saturday – both at home and in the Middle East. The Syrian rebels and their backers accuse the US of betraying and ditching them in mid-war.

After meeting Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu for four hours, Kerry came out with a statement that Syrian violations of its commitment under the chemical weapons convention and its reuse of this weapon of mass destruction would make its government liable for a UN Security Council action under Chapter 7 of the UN Charter, which allows military force.
debkafile’s sources note that this phrasing does not appear in the text of the US-Russian accord concluded Saturday or Geneva; not does it match the version of the accord presented by the Russian foreign minister. So a rejoinder from Moscow will likely not be long coming.

In reply to complaints that the chemical accord has done nothing to stop the Syrian civil war and the massive bloodshed now in its third year, Kerry said it was only the first step and diplomacy would continue to be pursued to bring the war to an end.
The US Secretary, who left for Paris after his long meeting with Nentanyahu, said he would be updating four allied foreign ministers on his accord with Lavrov – his British and French and also his Saudi and Turkish opposite numbers. Riyadh and Ankara, like Jerusalem, have so far chosen to keep their doubts and objections quiet.

Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu said alongside Kerry that Syria must be stripped of chemical weapons to make region safer. But for diplomacy to have a chance to work it must be coupled with a credible military threat.

Avigdor Lieberman, Chairman of the Knesset Foreign Affairs and Security Committee, commented that after Damascus submits its inventory of chemical stockpiles and other sites next week, as Kerry has promised, it should be compared with the lists drawn up by Israeli intelligence.

debkafile: This suggestion is naïve. The Syrian inventory will first go to Moscow and after it is confirmed, referred to Washington. The Obama administration will refrain from any action that might torpedo the deal with Moscow at this early stage by questioning Syrian and Russian veracity.

Despite all the words of assurance pouring out of Washington about the credible military option in place both for Syria and Iran, the Obama administration is determined not to let Israel or any other Middle East critic upset its diplomatic momentum – either for Syria’s chemical weapons or Iran’s nuclear drive.

Israel Hayom | Still just words and promises.

Boaz Bismuth

Israel Hayom | Assad’s future is looking bright.

Israel Hayom | There’s a new sheriff in town.

Uri Heitner

Israel Hayom | Let it be vs. ain’t gonna happen.

Dan Margalit

Israel Hayom | Syrian official: We have guarantees strike is off the table.