WarSclerotic

( I am prompted by a comment made by our friend and frequent contributor “IAmSpartacus” to re-post for the second time something I wrote back in June 2010 – JW )

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The Time Has Come…

“Freedom’s just another word for nothing left to lose…”

Kris Kristofferson’s lyrics to his classic song Bobby McGee have never been more appropriate than they are right now to an Israel facing a soon to become nuclear Iran.

Any hope that the West, led by the US and Barak Obama would succeed in preventing this terrifying threat to world order have by now been completely dashed.  The hysteria over Israel’s enforcement of it’s blockade against the Iranian proxy Hamas, removes all doubt that the West will find any and all excuses to avoid confronting the threat posed to the world by radical Islam.

The parallels to the catastrophic “appeasement” policy towards Nazi Germany prior to 1939 are more than an exaggerated overstatement.  In many ways the parallels are frighteningly similar.

Germany, a country of 78 million in 1939 laid before the world its dream of an Aryan empire that would last a thousand years.  They also blamed all the troubles of the world on the Jews and promised to put an end to them.

The West stood by and did nothing as the Nazis built up the most powerful war machine in the world in contravention to the Versailles treaty.  What resulted was the greatest cataclysm in the history of the world.

Iran today,  also a country of 78 million  has announced its intentions to bring the world under the domination of Islamic sharia law.  It also blames the Jews for all the troubles in the world, although it includes the US as well.  While its war machine cannot compare to that of the US, its acquisition of nuclear weapons would make it safe from any retaliation for its continuing and increasing support for terrorism world wide.

Look at the reaction to the direct act of war by North Korea in its unprovoked sinking of the South Korean destroyer.  While North Korea blithely denies having committed the act, they threaten the Korean peninsula with war if any response is made against them.

Other than mealy mouthed tut-tutting, what has been the response of the civilized world?  Nothing at all.  Nor will there be for the very simple reason that the North has nuclear weapons.

Understand that this is the very reason Iran is so intent on acquiring these weapons at any cost.  They know that it will insure the survival of their corrupt and hated regime against any and all threats whether from without or within.

Israel at this point has nothing left to lose by putting an end to this Iranian threat once and for all.  The endless pundits and military analysts who claim that the most Israel can do is slow down their progress for a few years do so out of their ignorance of the power of EMP (Electro Magnetic Pulse).

A nuclear based EMP weapon launched on a Jericho III missile and detonated 150 miles above Iran would cause no casualties whatsoever to the people on the ground.  What it would do is destroy all electrical based equipment from radios to trucks to power grids to tanks to missiles to centrifuges.

The destruction is not temporary, it is permanent.  Every circuit board and electrical switching device in Iran would have to be replaced.  The net effect would be to remove Iran as a military threat on any level whatsoever for a minimum of one to two decades.

No more threats against the straights of Hormuz; their navy simply won’t function.  Their nuclear program would be permanently stopped dead its tracks.

The negative result would be an enormous humanitarian crisis as the basics for the functioning of a modern society in Iran would be wiped out.  The entire world would have to pitch in to help the Iranian people survive the loss of their 21st century technology.

However, the cost of doing this and the unavoidable suffering that would result pales in comparison to the potential for true Armageddon should the radical Islamic mullahs gain the power of nuclear weapons.

Of course Israel would be roundly condemned by the entire world for taking this action, the same way it was when it destroyed Saddam Hussein’s Osirak reactor.  Nonetheless, underneath the condemnation would be the biggest sigh of relief the world has ever experienced.  The only powers that would be truly upset by such an action would be Iran’s terrorist proxies in Gaza and Lebanon and perhaps also North Korea.

Israel is a small country, but a great and powerful one at the same time.  Golda Meir is quoted as saying, “We Jews have a secret weapon in our struggle with the Arabs; we have no place to go.”  That remains the truth to this day.  While the Western nations look the other way while Iran develops the power to destroy the Jewish state, Israel does not have that luxury.

The time has come to put an end to radical Islam’s threat to the world.  Almost every violent struggle in the world today has at its root this atavistic and intolerant ideology whose world leader and main source of funding worldwide is Iran.

It is a very frightening choice for Israel to make.  The sad truth is that the weak-willed and hypocritical governments of the world have forced Israel’s hand.  It is no longer a choice, it is a necessity.

The time has come…

Joseph Wouk
June 3, 2010

Israel prepares for solemn, silent Day of Atonement | The Times of Israel.

( To my readers and friends here,… Please be advised that this site will go dark for 25 hours beginning at 6:30 PM Israel time.  It will of course be here in the event of an emergency.  [ Remember 1973 ! ]   I ask forgiveness from anyone here who felt wronged by my actions in the last year.  May you be inscribed (in the Book of Life) for Good.    גמר חתימה טובה  – JW )

Jewish state grinds to a halt on Yom Kippur as businesses, TV stations, airports and highways shut down until Saturday night

Thousands of Jewish people gather for prayers at the Western Wall in Jerusalem’s Old City the night before Yom Kippur, the Jewish Day of Atonement. (photo credit: Dror Garti/Flash90)

JERUSALEM (AP) — Israelis prepared for the holiest day of the Jewish calendar on Friday when the entire country grinds almost to a halt for Yom Kippur, Judaism’s day of atonement.

Jews traditionally spend the solemn day fasting and asking God for forgiveness at intense prayer services in synagogues. It caps a 10-day period of soul-searching that began with Rosh Hashanah, the Jewish new year holiday.

In Israel, the country virtually shuts down for Yom Kippur. Businesses, restaurants and offices close, and TV and radio stations go silent. Airports close and buses and trains stop running. Highways and roads become eerily quiet, devoid of vehicles.

Yom Kippur is unique in Israel because it touches almost the entire country. A high portion of the secular population observes the fast — and even those who don’t fast tend to refrain from eating in public, and quietly watch movies or rest at home.

Many secular, mostly younger, Israelis ride bicycles and skateboards through the empty roads in some areas.

The Israeli military closed crossings with the West Bank for the holiday, which starts on Friday evening, citing “security assessments.”

Israel has imposed West Bank closures during most Jewish holidays in recent years due to concerns that Palestinian militants could take advantage of the occasion to carry out attacks inside Israel.

This year, the holiday marks 40 years to the 1973 Arab-Israel War, which Israelis call the Yom Kippur War because of the surprise attack launched by the Egyptian and Syrian armies against Israel that year.

The war is etched deep in Israel’s collective psyche due to the heavy losses sustained in the fighting and because of the country’s lack of preparedness. For Israelis, it is one of the most traumatic events in their history. Personal accounts of Israelis who participated in that war or who were scarred by its occurrence filled newspapers and talk shows ahead of this year’s holiday.

The holiday also comes amid the crisis over reports of chemical weapons use in neighboring Syria’s civil war.

Israel is warily watching as the international community decides how to respond to the use of the deadly munitions that allegedly killed hundreds near Damascus last month. Washington and its allies say the Syrian regime of President Bashar Assad fired warheads in the Aug. 21 attack with a nerve agent, most likely sarin.

Israel has said it doesn’t want to get involved in the fighting but has also warned it will not tolerate chemical weapons reaching violent groups sworn to its destruction, such as the Iranian backed Lebanese Hezbollah group or the al-Qaida affiliates fighting in Syria against the regime.

For devout Jews, Yom Kippur is the most solemn day on the calendar where according to tradition, God weighs people’s deeds and decides their fate for the next year.

On Thursday night, thousands of Jews attended pre Yom Kippur prayers in Jerusalem at the Western Wall, a remnant of the biblical Jewish Temple compound and the holiest site where Jews can pray.

Those observing the holiday refrain from food and drink and adhere to prohibitions that ban work, using electricity or operating any kind of machinery. The ban on drinking is especially tough in Israel where meteorologists have predicted the holiday this year will be the hottest in decades. Medics are on alert around the country to deal with emergencies.

Analysis: Syria chemical weapons proposal is Putin’s masterstroke | JPost | Israel News.

Israel Developing New Arrow Missile – Defense/Security – News – Israel National News.

Arrow 3

IDF Photo

Israel Aerospace Industries (IAI) is developing a new version of the “Arrow” missile that will be quicker and more accurate than its predecessors, an official said Thursday, according to Kol Yisrael radio.

Speaking at a program as part of the annual Researchers’ Night at Tel Aviv University, the director of the Arrow 3 program at the IAI, Inbal Kreis, said that the new missile system will be able to intercept ballistic missiles at high altitudes, far beyond the borders of Israel.

In February, the Ministry of Defense successfully carried out a flight test of the Arrow 3, in conjunction with the U.S. Missile Defense Agency.

The Arrow 3, which is supposed to be an improved version of the Arrow 2 system, is part of the multi-layer defense system that is intended to protect the state of Israel, which also includes the Iron Dome system and the Magic Wand system.

Iron Dome deals primarily with short range missiles, and has proven to be very successful, especially during last year’s Operation Pillar of Defense, when it was able to intercept 84% of the rockets and missiles fired at Israel by Gaza terrorists. Magic Wand will deal with the medium-range threat.

Development of the Arrow 3 is expected to take two more years, whereas Magic Wand is due to become operational in 2014.

The previous generation of Arrow missiles became operational use 13 years ago and batteries are placed in different places throughout Israel.

Report: Assad scattering chemical weapons to 50 sites – Israel News, Ynetnews.

American officials say US, Israeli intelligence agencies still believe they know where most of Assad regime’s chemical weapons are located, but with less confidence

Ynet

A secretive Syrian military unit at the center of the Assad regime’s chemical weapons program has been moving stocks of poison gases and munitions to as many as 50 sites to make them harder for the US to track, The Wall Street Journal reported Friday, citing American and Middle Eastern officials.

The American newspaper quoted officials as saying the movements of chemical weapons by Syria’s elite Unit 450 could complicate any US bombing campaign in Syria over its alleged chemical attacks,. It also raises questions about implementation of a Russian proposal that calls for the regime to surrender control of its stockpile, they said.

US and Israeli intelligence agencies still believe they know where most of the Syrian regime’s chemical weapons are located, but with less confidence than six months ago, US officials said.

The US claims a chemical weapons attack by the Syrian government on Aug. 21 killed more than 1,400 people, including at least 400 children, in rebel strongholds on the outskirts of the capital Damascus. Syrian President Bashar Assad on Thursday again denied any involvement in a chemical attack, but said his government was prepared to sign an agreement banning the use of chemical weapons.

The Wall Street Journal reported Unit 450—a branch of the Syrian Scientific Studies and Research Center that manages the regime’s overall chemicals weapons program—has been moving the stocks around for months, officials and lawmakers briefed on the intelligence said.

Movements occurred as recently as last week, the officials said, after Obama said he was preparing to launch strikes.

Victims of Aug. 21 gas attack (Photo:Reuters)

The unit is in charge of mixing and deploying chemical munitions, and it provides security at chemical sites, according to US and European intelligence agencies. It is composed of officers from Assad’s Alawite sect. One diplomat briefed on the unit said it was Alawite from “janitor to commander.”

According to the report, US military officials have looked into the possibility of gaining influence over members of Unit 450 through inducements or threats. “In a perfect world, you would actually like to co-opt that unit. Who cares who pays them as long as they sit on the chemical weapons,” a senior US military official was quoted by The Wall Street Journal as saying.

Although the option remains on the table, government experts say the unit is so close knit that they doubt any member could break ranks without being exposed and killed, the report said.

The US estimates the regime has 1,000 metric tons of chemical and biological agents. “That is what we know about. There might be more,” one senior US official told The Wall Street Journal.

The regime traditionally kept most of its chemical and biological weapons at a few large sites in western Syria, US officials said. But beginning about a year ago, the Syrians started dispersing the arsenal to nearly two dozen major sites.

Unit 450 also started using dozens of smaller sites. The US now believes Assad’s chemical arsenal has been scattered to as many as 50 locations in the west, north and south, as well as new sites in the east, officials said.

The Wall Street Journal said the US is using satellites to track vehicles employed by Unit 450 to disperse the chemical-weapons stocks. But the imagery doesn’t always show what is being put on the trucks. “We know a lot less than we did six months ago about where the chemical weapons are,” one official said.

The movements, activities and base locations of Unit 450 are so sensitive that the US won’t share information with even trusted allies in the opposition for fear the unit would be overrun by rebels, current and former US officials told WSJ.

The US wants any military strikes in Syria to send a message to the heads of Unit 450 that there is a steep price for following orders to use chemical weapons, US officials said.

At the same time, the US doesn’t want any strike to destabilize the unit so much that it loses control of its chemical weapons, giving rebels a chance to seize the arsenal.

“Attacking Unit 450, assuming we have any idea where they actually are, would be a pretty tricky affair because…if you attack them you may reduce the security of their weapons, which is something we certainly don’t want,” Jeffrey White, a veteran of the Defense Intelligence Agency and a defense fellow at The Washington Institute, told WSJ.

The Pentagon has prepared multiple target lists for possible strikes, some of which include commanders of Unit 450, according to the report.

However, a senior US official told WSJ that no decision has been made to target them.

In some respects, officials said, the hands-on role that Unit 450 plays in safeguarding the regime’s chemical weapons secrets makes it too valuable for the US to eliminate, even though the US believes the unit is directly responsible for the alleged chemical weapons abuses.

Officials said the US doesn’t plan to bomb chemical weapons sites directly because of concerns any attack would disperse poison agents and put civilians at risk, WSJ reported.

In addition to satellites, the US also relies on Israeli spies for on-the-ground intelligence about the unit, US and Israeli officials told the newspaper.

Though small in size, Unit 450 controls a vast infrastructure that makes it easier for the US and Israel to track its movements, according to the report.

Whenever chemical munitions are deployed in the field, Unit 450 has to pre-deploy heavy equipment to chemical mixing areas, which the US and Israel can track.

Blocking action on Syria makes an attack on Iran more likely – Washington Post.

Ironically, if these opponent succeed, they may prevent a conflict that President Obama has been determined to keep limited and has the means to do so. After all, even after Israelacted militarily to enforce its red line and prevent Syria’s transfer of advanced weapons to Hezbollah in Lebanon, Assad, Iran and Hezbollah have been careful to avoid responding. They have little interest in provoking Israeli attacks that would weaken Syrian forces and make them vulnerable to the opposition.

For all the tough talk about what would happen if the United States struck targets in Syria, the Syrian and Iranian interest in an escalation with the United States is also limited. Can the same be said if Israel feels that it has no choice but to attack the Iranian nuclear infrastructure? Maybe the Iranians will seek to keep that conflict limited; maybe they won’t. Maybe an Israeli strike against the Iranian nuclear program will not inevitably involve the United States, but maybe it will — and maybe it should.

If nothing else, it is time to ask the opponents of authorization of strikes in Syria if they are comfortable with a position that is very likely to rule out any diplomatic outcome on the Iranian nuclear program. Even in their eyes, the costs of inaction may then not appear so low.

An Israeli Strike on Iran Just Got More Likely | New Republic.

John Kerry’s accidental diplomacy may have saved President Obama in Washington, but here in Israel, the White House’s indecisiveness of the last few weeks will cast a long shadow.

Israel has kept a low profile in the Syrian civil war, launching anonymous strikes periodically to prevent the transfer of weapons to Hezbollah, but otherwise keeping mum—and with good reason. A collapse of the Syrian state and the rise of jihadist groups would threaten the long-standing calm along the Golan Heights and is no less distasteful to Israel than Assad’s continuation in power. Israel certainly has a vital stake in the destruction of Syria’s chemical arsenal (Assad has missiles that can reach Tel Aviv; so does Hezbollah), but Benjamin Netanyahu still sees the issue through the same prism he sees ALL issues these days: As he said Wednesday, “the message Syria receives will resonate very strongly in Iran.” It will resonate very strongly in Israel as well.

The Obama administration (and the American Israel Public Affairs Committee) has argued to Congress that a failure to enforce the president’s red line on chemical weapons would embolden the Iranian leadership to test his red line on nuclear weapons. And, indeed, a no vote on the Syria resolution would devastate American credibility in Tehran. But Iran has shown few signs of being deterred even in the face of crippling sanctions and an American threat of military action, so the more salient question is how the handwringing in Washington will affect the calculus in Jerusalem as Israel continues to debate military action.

Before tackling that question, it’s important to dispense with a couple of misconceptions that have taken root around the world as Netanyahu has failed to follow through on his threats to strike Iran. The first is the idea that Netanyahu is bluffing—that the bluster, the innuendo, and the leaks of the past few years are all part of an elaborate ploy to goad the world into harsher measures. It is true that Israel has an incentive to overstate the urgency of the matter. Still, conversations over the past two years with individuals who have been directly involved in the decision-making process have convinced me that Netanyahu is quite serious about striking Iran and would have done so by now had it not been for intense American pressure.

The second misconception is that there is a meaningful debate within the Israeli government and security establishment about whether to attack Iran’s nuclear program. There is not. Virtually all top Israeli officials agree that given the choice between “bomb or bombing,” bombing is the lesser of two evils. The debate instead has been over whether Israel has more time to wait for other measures to take their toll or whether, by waiting too long, it risks allowing Iran to enter what former defense minister Ehud Barak called the “zone of immunity,” when the Iranian nuclear program would be beyond Israel’s military reach. There are a number of factors at play here, from the amount of uranium Iran possesses to the number and quality of centrifuges, not to mention the measures Iran is taking to hide and fortify its program. But the major question before Israel has ALWAYS been whether it could trust the U.S.—with its superior military capabilities—to strike in the event that its own window of military opportunity closes.

Until now, a number of senior Israelis have believed it could. “I heard very carefully what President Obama said,” former Mossad chief Meir Dagan told “60 Minutes” last year. “And he said openly that the military option is on the table, and he is not going to let Iran become a nuclear state.” Current president Shimon Peres was even more emphatic in an interview with The New York Times Magazine, arguing that Israel should give the U.S. more time to pursue sanctions and diplomacy. “If none of this works, then President Obama will use military power against Iran,” he said. “I am sure of it.”

Netanyahu is, well, less sure. While he has long expressed a preference for American military action—“I’m going to divulge a secret to you about [American] 
capabilities,” he once told Piers Morgan. “They’re actually greater than ours”—he doubts that Obama has the stomach for it. He also knows that Israel and the U.S. have different red lines. Netanyahu’s—which he famously sketched out at the U.N.—is Iran’s possession of enough fissile material for a bomb. Obama’s is the actual manufacture of a bomb.

Netanyahu had a fellow skeptic in Barak, who with him lobbied fellow members of Israel’s security cabinet in support of a strike before last year’s U.S. presidential election. While the details remain murky, all indications are that Barak changed his mind in the final weeks after receiving American assurances. The question in the wake of the great Syria zig-zag is what an American assurance is worth. If Syria is a test case for American reliability, it hasn’t been an encouraging one for Israelis. An immediate strike would have bolstered those Israelis urging greater consultation with the U.S., but Obama’s eleventh-hour move to put the decision in the hands of the likes of Rand Paul and Alan Grayson made him seem gun-shy. It also set a precedent that, if applied to Iran, would make any American military threat hollow. Unlike the limited strike on Syria that Obama has been proposing, an air campaign against Iran would be time-sensitive. Iran will soon have enough fissile material and centrifuges that, providing its weaponization program is sufficiently advanced, it may be able to produce a bomb within a matter of weeks if it decides to do so.

The argument will come up sooner than most think. Based on my reporting, I’ve become increasingly convinced in recent months that—barring an unforeseen diplomatic breakthrough—Israel will strike Iran before the end of next year, and conceivably well before then. The officials who order that strike may never know whether Congress would have voted down the Syria resolution and whether Obama would have acted anyways. But it doesn’t take negative answers to these questions for Israel to be concerned. The questions themselves are worrisome enough.

Syria says it ratified treaty banning use of chemical weapons | JPost | Israel News.

Move comes hours after Assad said he would give up his arsenal of chemical weapons on condition that the US cease threatening him; Syria was one of seven countries that refused to sign Chemical Weapons Convention.

Western strike force for Syria disperses. Syrian launches offensive near Israeli border.

Syrian rebels lose heart

Russian President Vladimir Putin, while engaged in active cooperation with President Barack Obama over Syria, was not averse to going over his head to push his agenda with “the American people” in an article he published in The New York Times Thursday, Sept. 12.

He continues to protest against all the evidence that the calamitous chemical attack of Aug. 21, east of Damascus, was perpetrated by Syrian rebels, not the Syrian army.

This is clearly an attempt to turn the American people and its lawmakers once and for all against US military intervention in Syria in any shape or form.

If Putin succeeds in getting his message across, it would be the second time in a decade that Moscow has worked its will on the American people. The first time, the Russians aimed at discrediting the Bush administration by convincing the world ahead of America’s 2003 invasion of Iraq that Saddam Hussein had no weapons of mass destruction, although he was on record as having gassed 5,000 of his Kurdish citizens to death in 1988.
In his article, Putin went on to say sanctimoniously: “It is alarming that military intervention in internal conflicts in foreign countries has become commonplace for the United States. Is it in America’s long-term interest? Millions around the world increasingly see America not as a model of democracy but as one relying solely on brute force.”
The famously peace-loving Russian leader was lambasting an American president known for his extreme shyness of military action. Putin must be utterly confident that Obama is too far along their joint diplomatic path with Iran on Syria to back out now. He is evidently counting on a military attack being finally off the table and the Assad regime guaranteed safe.

debkafile’s military sources report that the Western military armada built up opposite Syria in the past two weeks was breaking up as the US president’s resolve for military action faded under relentless pressure from Moscow.

The British and French ships headed through the Suez Canal for the Red Sea Wednesday, Sept. 11, and the American vessels pulled back from Syrian shores to waters between Crete and Cyprus.
Obama has therefore caved in on his original intention of keeping the war armada in place – as heat for Assad to comply with the Russian plan for the elimination of his chemical weapons.

Every reputable chemical and military expert has advised the US president that there is no way that Assad’s chemical arsenal can be located and destroyed without importing an army of monitors long term for the job, and this can’t be accomplished while a civil war is raging in the country. Even if it becomes feasible, it will take years.

Meanwhile, the Syrian army is not waiting for diplomacy to run its course and Thursday, resumed offensive operations in the south, targeting Deraa and advancing rapidly towards the Syrian-Jordanian-Israeli border intersection.
The rebels’ morale is in the pits out of a sense of betrayal by the Obama administration and their resistance to the Syrian army’s onslaught is half-hearted at best.