WarSclerotic

Israel Hayom | Israel’s economy gets an A from Moody’s, again.

( This speaks more to the reality of Israel’s position in the world than all the ideological bull coming out of the press and “world opinion” [sic].  Money talks, nobody walks… – JW )

Israel Hayom | Is Obama turning into Woodrow Wilson?.

Dan Margalit

Analysts: Turkey losing regional clout as Egypt crisis flares – Alarabiya.net English | Front Page.

Bombed Nasrallah not looking quite so smart now | The Times of Israel.

The purported Hezbollah strategic genius has got himself into a war with al-Qaeda-linked extremists who might just be even more evil than he is

This was a response to the dominant involvement of Hezbollah in the fighting against the rebels in Syria. On Thursday evening, the “Brigade of Aisha” even issued a statement of responsibility to make it crystal clear to Hezbollah why it carried out the car bombing.

And yet despite this, a whole host of Lebanese politicians, not all of them Sh’iites, rushed to charge that Israel was involved. These allegations are ridiculous and in Lebanon too are considered an insult to the intelligence — even when they come from President Michel Suleiman, who claimed that the blast bore the fingerprints of the Israelis, or from Druze leader Walid Jumblatt, one of the Middle East’s great opportunists, who leveled similarly ridiculous charges.

The reason for these claims is obvious: These politicians, including Suleiman, are worried that an attack like this will prompt a particularly violent Hezbollah retaliation. In pointing the finger at Israel, they are trying to manufacture a common enemy for all Lebanese. Suleiman, who only days ago demanded the disarming of Hezbollah, understands that an attack like this in Dahieh could eventually lead to a complete takeover by the Shi’ite Hezbollah in Lebanon and a cleaning out of all pockets of opposition — be they Sunni extremists or rival politicians.

Like many in Lebanon, Suleiman recognizes that the Syrian civil war, which has intermittently seeped into Lebanon, on Thursday escalated to a still more dangerous level for his country. It was notable that the internet site of Hezbollah’s TV station Al-Manar was quick to publicize comments by the organization’s number 2, Naim Kassam, who said that Israel is deterred from confrontation with Hezbollah “and checks itself a thousand times over before risking any aggression against us.” This was Hezbollah telling all those politicians, and its own people, that, no, Israel isn’t the problem right now.

But Hezbollah does not have too many good options right now. For a start, it doesn’t have a clear target to attack or punish.

The car bombing was not a particular surprise. Hezbollah only recently told its men to be on the alert in Shi’ite areas for fear of suicide bombers, car bombs or missile attacks. Evidently this didn’t help.

Thursday was one of the harshest terror attacks Hezbollah has ever suffered. And it does not reflect well on the ostensible wisdom of Hezbollah’s secretary general Hassan Nasrallah. This purported strategic genius made a foolish mistake when he ordered his men two years ago to increase their involvement fighting alongside Bashar Assad’s forces in Syria; a similar mistake to the one he made in 2006 when he approved the kidnapping of Israel soldiers that led to the Second Lebanon War.

Right now in Lebanon, the Hezbollah-affiliated TV channel Al Mayadeen has been broadcasting nightly episodes of a series dedicated to that war, which happened to end precisely seven years ago. Nasrallah himself is interviewed in the final episodes and restates his assertion of Hezbollah victory. He appears to have forgotten his acknowledgement immediately after the war that the kidnappings had been a mistake and that, if he had known the price that Lebanon would pay, he would not have approved them.

It’s fair to assume that on Thursday night, too, Nasrallah was internalizing the scale of the mistake he made when he caved in to Iranian pressure and agreed to send his forces to fight alongside Assad’s in Syria. Thursday’s car bombing was only the beginning for those terror groups associated with al-Qaeda who see the Shi’ites — no less than the Jews and Christians — as their enemy.

Nasrallah may even be starting to realize that he is now at odds with the only people in the Middle East whose mindset may be even more pernicious than his own.

Israel keeps to sidelines as Mideast deteriorates into bloodshed – Israel News, Ynetnews.

As Egypt’s death toll rises to 623, mysterious bombing hits Hezbollah’s Beirut stronghold, Israeli defense official insists ‘Israel will continue in its non-involvement policy’

Attila Somfalvi

At the wake of violent days both in Beirut and Cairo, Israel maintains its reserved stance on the unrest at its borders.

“Hezbollah has been hurt, but Israel will continue in its non-involvement policy and will not take sides, also in regards to Cairo,” a senior defense establishment official clarified on Thursday.

“We’ve no interest to be perceived as supporters of either side.”

Against the background of Hezbollah’s relative successes in the Syrian civil war as a supporter of Bashar Assad, the hit the Shiite group suffered in its own base – the Dahiyeh quarter in Beirut – came as a necessary backlash in the eyes of some in the Israeli defense echelon.

Smoke rises over Beirut (Photo: AP)

At scene of the blast (Photo: AFP)

Fighting the Dahiyeh fire (Photo: AFP)

“Nasrallah significantly intervened in the Syrian war and is no longer perceived as ‘Lebanon’s protector,’ but as Assad’s man, and now he is paying the price,” said the same official.

Though Lebanon’s President Michel Suleiman and other top Lebanese politicians pointed a finger at Israel for orchestrating the car bomb, a so far unknown Sunni group took responsibility for the attack, which claimed the lives of 20 people.

‘Hezbollah weakens, attacks will continue’

“Hezbollah and Nasrallah’s situation isn’t good,” a State official added. “Criticism against Hezbollah is growing in light of its involvement in Syria and the fighting seeping into Lebanese territory. Hezbollah is weakening and forecasts are that the attack against the organization will continue.”

Meanwhile, violence in Egypt has dropped on Thursday and the curfew has been limited – but top Muslim Brotherhood officials vowed that the movement will not desist and urged its followers to take back to the streets in protest after Friday’s prayer.

“We’ll protest across the country and shed the blood of any police and army officer in the streets,” a member of the Brotherhood’s political arm promised.

After US President Barack Obama’s announcement cancelling the joint drill with the Egyptian army, the Americans issued a travel alert for Egypt and urged its citizens staying in the country to leave it immediately.

Wednesday’s official death toll has so far risen to 623, and the number of wounded leaped to 3,994, according to the Egyptian Health Ministry.

Israeli interest – calm on all fronts

“We stay on the sideline as far as Cairo goes – this is an internal Egyptian matter,” said an Israeli source.

“Our interest is focused on the Sinai Peninsula, were global jihad operatives are. What’s happening in Egypt is troubling, but it’s internal. The fact they’re occupied with their own internal affairs so far had no effect on the war conducted in Sinai.”

He added that Israel is considering all the possible scenarios, including another regime shift. “No one knows what’s going to happen. It’s impossible to analyze.”

Ron Ben-Yishai, Ynet’s defense analyst, explains that the Israeli interest is for the Egyptian unrest to calm down, and similarly for tumults in other neighboring countries.

Every failing state increases the terror threat on Israel, and actually an attack on Hezbollah boosts the chances for civil war in Lebanon, which, like in Egypt, Israel would rather avoid.

Civil wars, political instability and economic hardship – these are the main factors for terror on the Israeli borders. All these factors are currently in motion in the countries that went through the Arab Spring, as well as in Lebanon.

Without internal conflict, stability and economic prosperity return – from which Israel benefits as well.

Russia not Supplying Iranian Missile System – Defense/Security – News – Israel National News.

Illustration: S-300 missile defense batteries

Reuters

Russia will not be supplying Iran with a replacement for the S-300 missile defense system delivery which it cancelled, according to the head of Rosoboronexport. The company is a Russian state-owned arms company, which holds an effective monopoly on all arms exports from the country.

Speaking to journalists in Baku, Azebaijan, Anatoly Isaiki said that despite media reports of discussions over a replacement system, no such deals were in the pipeline.

“I will only be able to speak about that if there were any deals or when there would be deals, but there are none,” he said, according to the RIA media agency.

The announcement is the latest chapter in a saga over arms exports to the Islamic Republic. In 2007, Russia signed a deal to sell four S-300 SAM (surface-to-air missiles) batteries. The system would have been a game-changer, as it would have posed serious challenges for any potential air strike on Iranian nuclear sites by the US or Israel, which both countries’ say is still on the table if diplomatic efforts to halt the program fail. The S-300 system can effectively intercept aircraft, cruise missiles and ballistic missiles.

But in 2011 the Russians caved in to US pressure and cancelled the deal, prompting a $4 billion lawsuit by the Iranian government, which is still pending review in the international courts.

There had been reports in the Russian media in June that a replacement offer had been floated Russia to provide Iran with the Antei-2500 system, which is similar to the S-300. That proposal was never confirmed, and last week the Iranian ambassador to Russia denied that such talks were taking place.

The denial by the head of Russian state-controlled weapons industry seems to have put an end to such speculations, although western intelligence sources will no doubt be watching carefully for the prospect of any backdoor deals to follow.

Politics, Power, and Preventive Action » What’s New in U.S.-Israel Plans for Iran’s Nuclear Program?.

Two days ago, Gen. Martin Dempsey, chairman of the joint chiefs of staff, met with his Israeli counterpart, Lt. Gen. Benny Gantz, chief of the Israeli general staff.

Last August, Gen. Dempsey told reporters that an Israeli attack could “clearly delay but probably not destroy Iran’s nuclear program.” He added: “I don’t want to be complicit if they [Israel] choose to do it.” This morning, the New York Times reported something that indicates that last year’s assessment from America’s most senior military official has changed. According to Thom Shanker:

General Dempsey said, he “sensed agreement” that diplomatic initiatives and economic sanctions “were having an effect” on Iran, which is accused of seeking to develop nuclear arms, an accusation it strongly denies.

The Israelis “of course want us to continue to present a credible military threat to support those diplomatic and economic efforts,” General Dempsey said, adding that he told them, “since I was here last year, we have better military options than we did a year ago.”

“That’s because we’ve continued to refine them,” he said. “We’ve continued to develop technology, we’ve continued to train and plan.”

This was a notable statement for three reasons, each of which raises new questions. First, he has stated repeatedly that he is not privy to Israel’s military planning for targeting Iran’s nuclear program, which leads one to ask what new information he received from his Israeli counterparts during his latest visit to contend that military options are better?

Second, Dempsey has asserted that an Israeli strike would “delay the production or the capability of Iran to achieve a nuclear weapon status—probably for a couple of years.” Would a strike now increase the timeline required to produce a bomb by more than “a couple years?” And would that include delaying a potential plutonium-bomb made with reprocessed spent fuel from the Arak heavy water reactor, which Israeli officials and analysts have recently warned is Iran’s “plan B” for a nuclear weapon?

Finally, Dempsey previously claimed that U.S.-Israeli discussions about attacking Iran “does not rise to the level of joint military planning, but we’re closely collaborating.” Does the recent addition of “we” imply that there are now coordinated U.S.-Israeli operational plans for offensive strikes—either kinetic or cyber—against Iran’s nuclear program? This would be a new development, given that U.S. officials have never directly answered the essential question: Will America help Israel attack Iran?

Car bomb near Hezbollah stronghold in south Beirut kills 20, injures 120 | JPost | Israel News.

Israeli-Egyptian relations after the June 30 revolution – Alarabiya.net English | Front Page.

US-Egyptian relations on the rocks. El-Sisi wouldn’t accept Obama’s phone call.

Gen. El-Sisi and President Obama viewed on Egyptian street

When the clashes between Egyptian security forces and pro-Morsi protesters were at their peak in Cairo Wednesday, Aug. 14 – 525 dead and 3,700 wounded to date – President Barack Obama put in a call to Egypt’s strongman, Defense Minister Gen. Abdel-Fattah El-Sissi, debkafile’s intelligence sources report.  The US president wanted to give the general a dressing-down much on the lines of the call he made to former president Hosni Mubarak in February 2011 at the high point of the Arab Spring Tahrir Sq demonstrations against his rule, namely:  Stop repressing the protesters and firing live ammunition. Step down!

When Mubarak asked for a three or four days’ grace to break up the massed rally, Obama shot back that he has to quit NOW!

And indeed, on Feb. 11, the army announced the president’s resignation.

Realizing what was coming, Gen. El-Sissi decided not to accept President Obama’s call, our sources report. The Egyptian officials who received it informed the US president politely that the right person for him to address was Egypt’s interim president Adly Mansour and they would be glad to transfer the call to him. The White House callers declined.

This anecdote shows that the military strongman is not only determined to avoid the pitfalls which brought Mubarak down but is equally determined to keep the US administration from interfering in his plans for driving the Muslim Brotherhood out of Egyptian politics.

Diplomatic condemnation of those plans is building up inWestern capitals. Wednesday night, the Obama White House issued a statement strongly condemning “the use of violence against protesters in Egypt” and the state of emergency. Egyptian ambassadors in Paris, London and Berlin received denunciations and expressions of concern from their host governments, and Turkey demanded a UN Security Council emergency session on the situation in Egypt.
debkafile’s sources report that harsh international condemnation of Gen. El-Sissi’s crackdown will do more harm than good. The backlash will come in three forms:
1. The Muslim Brotherhood will be encouraged to pursue increasingly extreme measures to fight the Egyptian army in the expectation of international applause.
2. The generals will be encouraged to escalate their steps for repressing the Brotherhood.
3. The Saudis and the Gulf Emirates will redouble their support for the Egyptian general and his campaign against the Brotherhood. This will widen the rift between those Arab rulers and the Obama administration.

Our intelligence sources also disclose that, while President Obama was trying to get through to Gen. El-Sissi, the general was on the phone with Prince Bandar, Director of Saudi Intelligence.
On July 31, Bandar arrived in Moscow and was immediately received by President Vladimir Putin for a conversation that lasted four hours. The Saudi prince next received an invitation to visit Washington at his earliest convenience and meet with President Obama.
Bandar has still not responded to that invitation.

Clearly, the US president’s problem with the Egyptian situation is a lot more complicated than pulling the army off the Muslim Brotherhood’s backs.  He needs to somehow snap the strategic alliance unfolding between Egypt and Saudi Arabia, and the rapport between the Egyptian general and the Saudi prince.