WarSclerotic

Putin demands US present proof of Syria chemical weapons use | The Times of Israel.

Russian president calls allegations against Assad regime ‘utter nonsense’; delivery of fighter jets, S-300 missiles to Syria reportedly suspended

US President Barack Obama meets with Russian President Vladimir Putin in Enniskillen, Northern Ireland, Monday, June 17, 2013. (photo credit: AP/Evan Vucci)

The US should present the evidence it possesses of a chemical weapons attack by the Syrian regime to the UN Security Council, Russian President Vladimir Putin said on Saturday, amid rising tensions in the region ahead of a possible US-led military response in Syria.

“If they say that the [Syrian] governmental forces used weapons of mass destruction…and that they have proof of it, let them present it to the UN inspectors and the [UN] Security Council,” Putin said, speaking to journalists in Vladivostok.

“Claims that the proof exists, but is classified and cannot be presented to anybody are below criticism. This is plain disrespect for their partners,” he added.

Putin also called the allegations against the Assad regime “utter nonsense.”

“While the Syrian army is on the offensive, saying that it is the Syrian government that used chemical weapons is utter nonsense,” he said.

Addressing US President Barack Obama as a Nobel Peace Laureate, Putin urged him to ”twice before making a decision on an operation in Syria.”

Putin went on to praise the UK for its parliament vote rejecting participation in any military action against Syria, adding that the upcoming G-20 summit meeting in Saint-Petersburg on Sept 6 and 7 was a good platform to discuss the situation, the Voice of Russia reported.

Putin’s challenge to Washington to present its findings to the Security Council comes hours after Obama said he was considering a “limited,narrow action” in Syria, and after US Secretary of State John Kerry warned of “guaranteed Russian obstructionism of any action through the UN Security Council.”

In a State Department speech Friday night, Kerry outlined the evidence the US possesses of the August 21 attack, which the US says killed 1,429 people.

Obama said the United States has an obligation “as a leader in the world” to hold countries accountable if they violate international norms on use of chemical weapons.

On Friday, a Russian Foreign Ministry official called Washington’s “threats” of a strike on Syria unacceptable and urged the US to wait for the results of the investigation of the UN chemical weapons inspectors who left Syria early Saturday.

The Syrian government has dismissed the US administration’s claims as “flagrant lies” akin to faulty Bush administration assertions before the Iraq invasion that Saddam Hussein had weapons of mass destruction. A Foreign Ministry statement read on state TV late Friday said that “under the pretext of protecting the Syrian people, they are making a case for an aggression that will kill hundreds of innocent Syrian civilians.”

In this undated file photo a Russian S-300 anti-aircraft missile system is on display in an undisclosed location in Russia (photo credit: AP)

Meanwhile, Russia has postponed the delivery of fighter jets and S-300 missile defense systems over a failed financial transaction, Ria Novosti reported on Saturday citing a report in the Russian daily Kommersant.

Russia drew fire in June when reports of the sale gained mass media attention. The systems are considered to be the cutting edge in aircraft interception technology and would present a serious obstacle to any bombing of Syrian targets or the potential implementation of a no-fly zone.

In May, the US and Germany urged Russia not to deliver the systems, saying it would alter the balance of power in the Middle East and prolong the civil war

“We ask them again not to upset the balance within the region with respect to Israel,” US Secretary of State John Kerry said at the time. “The weaponry that is being provided Assad whether it is an old contract or not, has a profoundly negative impact on the balance of interests and the stability of the region and it does put Israel at risk. It is not in our judgment responsible because of the size of the weapons, the nature of the weapons and what it does to the region in terms of Israel’s security…”

Israel has indicated that it would attack the missiles if they are delivered.

In 2010, Russia had suspended the sale over Israeli and US objections.

Israel Hayom | Time is working against Obama.

Dan Margalit

Imminent US Attack.

Amir Rapaport

30/8/2013

The first objective of a US attack against Syria will involve the Syrian air-defense batteries. Syria has state-of-the-art air-defense systems it acquired from Russia pursuant to the air strike against the Syrian nuclear reactor in Dayr al-Zawr in 2007, which was attributed to Israel. On the other hand, the US has stealth aircraft and electronic warfare systems that would enable its aircraft to pass through the Syrian radars. It also has the ability to launch its aircraft to ranges of 20,000 kilometers – all the way from the US to Syria and back.

With all due respect to the Syrian air-defense layouts, staging an attack inside Syrian territory is not impossible. According to foreign press reports, Israel has already attacked Syrian targets four times this year. The objectives were stocks of strategically-significant weapons. In order to attack Syrian targets, it is not necessary to fly over Syrian territory: smart munitions can be launched from a high altitude over the Mediterranean Sea. Even before the bomb touches the ground, it can reach any destination in western Syria, including symbolic government centers and installations of the Syrian Republican Guard in Damascus.

An attack against the Syrian air-defense layout is required nevertheless, in order to enable the aircraft of the second wave, departing from aircraft carriers in the Mediterranean, to carry out strikes against targets deep inside Syrian territory as well. It is important to note that the Syrian-Russian anti-aircraft batteries can intercept the US Tomahawk missiles that may be launched from the sea, and hit some of the fighter aircraft, so neutralizing them is a necessary preparatory move.

Once the Syrian air-defense layouts have been taken care of, the US operation may consist of a straightforward attack against Syrian aircraft on the ground, intended to render them inoperable (the Syrian Air Force has no more than a few dozen operational aircraft, after two and a half years of civil war). Several symbolic centers of the Syrian regime will probably be attacked as well. In all probability, Bashar al-Assad’s chemical warfare weapon stores, located primarily in the coastal region (near the towns of Latakia and Tartus) and near Damascus will not be attacked. The attack will include the transmission of signals that would “confuse” the Syrian communication and form a screen of virtual fog around the actual events taking place on the ground. The well-oiled psychological warfare systems (including those of the IDF Intelligence Division) will not remain idle, either.

In the event that Bashar al-Assad accepts the attack docilely and avoids any foolishness, the attack will not last for too long.

With the weekend approaching, Israel still does not know exactly when the US plans to attack. Obviously, an early warning will only be provided a few hours before the actual attack.

The satellites, the other surveillance assets and the various monitoring systems (as well as the limited information the US provides through the ‘usual channels’) have painted a very clear picture. On the one hand, US forces backed by NATO are preparing for an attack. This much is visible on the high seas as well. On the other hand, intermediate-echelon Syrian spokesmen threaten to “set Israel ablaze” while the surviving elements of the Syrian Armed Forces have entered a state of sustainment alert; the military bases are emptying, all of the important equipment is being transferred into bunkers, and the sea ports in Tartus are being vacated by the Russian military personnel stationed there permanently. Russia understands that this time the US plans to attack very seriously.

A Short Operation
It is all a game of interests: this time, the US can no longer afford to show restraint. It is not that Bashar al-Assad or the Syrian victims concern the US administration all of a sudden. The number of people killed during the Syrian civil war passed the 100,000 mark a long time ago, and the number of refugees reached more than two million, and yet the US has not attacked. At stake here is something far more substantial, in the eyes of Washington: Assad interpreted the helplessness the US demonstrated thus far as weakness (especially when the US failed to operate pursuant to the use of chemical warfare weapons last March). That is why his people allowed themselves to launch rockets containing a mixture of lethal Sarin gas.

Now, the entire Middle East and in fact the entire world is examining the US Empire. In addition to the loss of face, the US has a lot more to lose – Barack Obama has based the lion’s share of his strategy on an effort to stop the global proliferation of weapons of mass destruction. If he shows restraint in the face of the massive employment of chemical weapons, this strategy will collapse. Barack Obama will reach the end of his presidency with the Nobel Prize he had been awarded early on, and with a world that abounds with weapons of mass destruction. This will include nuclear weapons in the hands of Iran, which is also testing the seriousness of the US “red lines” these days, as a “red line” had been drawn opposite them. Admittedly, so far it has been a fairly flexible line – but it remains a red line.

Nevertheless, the US has no interest in anything more than a reprisal operation that would preserve whatever remains of the US deterrence.

The Sunni Arab states, notably Saudi Arabia and Jordan, have a profound interest in supporting the US attack, as do the European countries that are members of NATO.

The Syrians have no apparent interest in attacking Israel in response to a US attack. A massive attack against Israel will lead to an Israeli response, which could lead to an attack by the rebels and the subsequent elimination of Bashar al-Assad’s regime. Consequently, within the IDF, the estimates are that inflammatory declarations are one thing and reality is another thing altogether – namely that the probability of a Syrian attack against Israel in response to a US attack against Syria is still low.
Scenarios
However, if all of the decisions made in Syria were rational, it would be safe to assume that Syrian forces would not have attacked three rebel objectives on the outskirts of Damascus using chemical weapons last Tuesday. In retrospect, the timing of this attack seems particularly stupid as far as Assad is concerned: his forces were gaining a certain momentum after their victory in the town of Al-Qusayr and several other tactical successes. The rebels were in distress and the US appeared more pathetic than ever before and like a party that would never interfere in the bloody civil war in this luckless country, devoid of any natural resources that are important to the global economy.

In the reality of last week, the gas went to Bashar al-Assad’s head, and he allowed himself to take the Sarin gas out of storage, using it to butcher his own people. Apparently, the weather conditions led to a scope of casualties that was far greater than anything the Syrian Army’s Operations Research Department could have anticipated (if they had such a department to begin with).

Will Assad make another foolish mistake (in our view) and order his military to attack Israel? Is it possible that in a military where the chain of command and communications are not the best in the world, and possibly even dysfunctional, some junior commander will make his own decision to launch missiles, or will do so by mistake? The probability of this happening is admittedly low, but should not be ruled out completely.

Contacts
As the weekend approaches, the US was poised and ready to attack Syria from a military point of view. All of the plans have been finalized, as well as the scenarios as to how the operation will progress in the event that Assad responds “irrationally”. For some time now, the US has had a plan for capturing central areas in Syria through a ground operation that would require 40,000 to 60,000 troops, who would depart mainly from Jordan. However, the chances of Obama becoming involved in such a move after he had pulled his forces out of Iraq, and even before completing the withdrawal from Afghanistan, are even slimmer than the chances of the US launching a spacecraft to Mars next week.

The only thing that could prevent a limited-scale attack in the last moment is the fact that fervent international contacts are currently underway, as the military preparations are being completed.

On the covert side, extensive international intelligence cooperation is currently underway (including low-profile Israeli cooperation). On the overt side, diplomats are running around, attempting various last-minute moves. It is unclear whether the recent appeal of the UK to the UN Security Council was intended to advance the attack or to delay it. It is reasonable to assume, however, that the decision of UN General Secretary Ban Ki-Moon to postpone the return of the UN weapons inspector delegation that departed last week to inspect the site of a previous chemical attack (not before the Syrian regime cleaned and removed any trace of that attack in the area that should have been inspected), is an attempt to prevent the attack. The UN weapons inspectors may remain on Syrian soil until Monday. The US can wait for their return or strike before that.

The way things look as the weekend approaches, Russia has already resigned itself to accepting the US attack against their protégé, Bashar al-Assad. They will settle for restricting the scope of the attack and assuring Assad’s survival. Russia will find it difficult to accept the possibility of the US enforcing a no-fly zone over Syria after completing their air strike, if they have such an intention. As far as the US is concerned, such a move can be much more effective and significant than the actual strike, which would probably hit mainly layers of concrete rather than weapon systems or personnel.

Israel Prepares
One thing that is truly incomprehensible is the fact that in 2013, 30% of the citizens of the State of Israel do not have CBRN protection kits, not even in the storage depots of the IDF Homefront Command, should those citizens bother to ask for them. The fact that there are no masks for everyone is a major scandal, as the shortage had been reported prominently by the Israeli media countless times, and was even addressed in the reports of the Israeli State Comptroller. Yet the Israeli self-destructive mechanism was unable to remedy the situation. The reason: until this year, the budget for refreshing and maintaining the CBRN protection kits was not a part of the standard defense budget, and in fact, this activity has not been budgeted separately.

Senior officials of the Israeli defense establishment had no interest of ordering the issuance of CBRN protection kits to the entire population at the expense of the purchasing of other resources. The Ministry of Finance, which had to release the funds required in order to complement the shortages, is conditioned not to “spend” money, whatever the reason. Consequently, the budget allocated to this issue over the last few years was only sufficient to maintain a certain number of CBRN protection kits, no more.

This led to a situation where, if each and every citizen demanded the CBRN protection kits they are entitled to in the next few days – there would not be a sufficient amount of kits for everyone. Luckily for the IDF Homefront Command, the Israeli public does not understand that “the early bird gets the worm”, as otherwise, the lines that we have seen at the Israeli Postal Service branches issuing CBRN kits would have grown much longer.

Low-Profile Preparations
Regardless of the unpleasant scenes developing at the Postal Service branches, over the last week Israel had a clear interest in keeping a low profile and staying out of the world media headlines in connection with the imminent attack. A high Israeli profile could have interfered with the rallying of the international coalition behind the US, which includes Arab states as well. For this reason, both the political echelon and IDF authorities made no statements whatsoever regarding the US attack.
Not everything could be kept quiet, however: over the last few days, there has been heavy traffic of Iron Dome, Patriot and Arrow systems from central Israel to the northern region. The Israeli cabinet authorized the mobilization of reservists by emergency orders signed by the Defense Minister, and some of the reservists promptly reported this. Not everyone has been mobilized. So far, the number of reservists actually mobilized is about 1,000, out of thousands of call-up orders authorized. The number of mobilized reservists will increase when the US attack begins.

As the weekend approaches, under certain circumstances associated with the international conference scheduled to be held in Moscow next week, which Barack Obama will attend, the US attack could serve as a lever for some sort of international agreement, sponsored by the US and Russia, which would end the Syrian civil war. It is difficult to see how this may transpire, and there is no certainty that such an agreement will correspond to the interests of Israel. It can perpetuate several entities in Syria, all hostile to Israel – Bashar al-Assad, an ally of Iran and Hezbollah, the Muslim Brotherhood and Global Jihad organizations in command of specific territories.

This scenario is a nightmare for IDF Northern Command. “It is better that the fighting in Syria continues among all our enemies, than all of them turning around and facing us together,” said a concerned defense source.

Meet the Military Forces Gathering on Syria’s Doorstep.

Posted on 2013-08-31 14:33:58

MONITORING DESK- While the United States is ready to strike a handful of targets on the ground in Syria, any international conflict there will take place on a much larger stage. The entire region is full of a witches’ brew of military hardware from more than half a dozen nations with interests in the Syrian conflict.

The United States and France are prepared to strike the government of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad from the Mediterranean Sea and a ring of air bases surrounding Syria. Meanwhile, three of America’s most powerful military allies — Britain, Turkey, and Israel — are publicly staying on the sidelines, albeit with their militaries primed to defend against any Syrian counterattack. Then there are Assad’s friends, Russia and Iran, both of which have military personnel on the ground in Syria.

Here’s a look at the mix of military forces facing Assad — and each other — in and around the Levant.

The United States already has Syria ringed with Patriot missile batteries in Jordan and Turkey and has four Arleigh Burke-class guided missile destroyers parked in the eastern Mediterranean Sea. This little fleet is likely armed with a mix of Tomahawk cruise missiles to attack ground targets in Syria and surface-to-air missiles capable of defending the ships from attempts to attack them by air.

If U.S. President Barack Obama does decide to fire a warning shot — as he has described any U.S. military action there — at Assad, these ships and their Tomahawks will likely play a major role.

In addition to the four destroyers, the United States may well have one of its four guided missile submarines prowling the waters near Syria. These subs used to carry massive Trident nuclear-tipped ballistic missiles. Over the last decade they saw their nuclear payloads removed and refitted to carry up to 154 Tomahawk cruise missiles in 22 of their 24 giant missile tubes. This class of ships saw its combat debut during the 2011 campaign to oust former Libyan dictator Muammar al-Qaddafi when the USS Florida fired more than 90 Tomahawks at targets in Libya.

Meanwhile, the U.S. Air Force’s fleet of spy planes that will likely track targets and intercept communications by Assad’s forces can operate out of NATO’s giant base at Incirlik, Turkey, and the U.S. bases along the Persian Gulf. Both Al Udeid air base in Qatar and Al Dhafra air base in the United Arab Emirates (UAE) already see a steady deployment of E-8 Joint STARS radar planes, along with U-2 Dragon Lady and RQ-4 Global Hawk spy planes that are all used to find ground targets. These Persian Gulf bases also regularly host RC-135 Rivet Joint electronic spy planes that snoop on enemy radio communications and radar transmissions, as well as B-1 Lancer heavy bombers and KC-135 and KC-10 tankers that would refuel the airborne armada.

Meanwhile, France says it is preparing for action against Syria and already has a detachment of cruise-missile-carrying fighter jets — three to six Mirage 2000s or Rafales — alongside the American planes at Al Dhafra in the UAE. The French Navy frigate Chevalier Paul, armed to the teeth with anti-aircraft and anti-missile missiles, is also said to be steaming toward the eastern Mediterranean, though the French government says the ship is merely conducting a training cruise.

Next among the major allied forces on Syria’s doorstep is Turkey, which has placed its military on alert and says it would support military action against Assad’s regime, which shot down a Turkish RF-4 Phantom fighter jet in 2012. Right now, it seems like all Turkey has said it will do to support strikes against Assad is offer the use of the NATO base at Incirlik to the United States.

If Turkey decides to play a more muscular role in strikes against Assad, its air force is likely the military branch that will carry it out. The Turkish air force is equipped with the SOM missile and the standoff land attack missile; both are long-range cruise missiles that are carried by the service’s 196 F-16 Falcon fighter jets. Turkey has also placed anti-aircraft missile batteries along its border with Syria to defend from attack by Assad’s missiles and aircraft.

Just as Turkey is on the sidelines, so is Syria’s southern neighbor Jordan, a nation that has zero desire to get involved in a conflict that could spill over its borders.

“Jordan will not be a launching pad for any military action against Syria,” said Mohammad Momani, Jordan’s information minister on Aug. 28. Instead, the small nation sandwiched between Israel, Iraq, Syria, and Saudi Arabia is calling for a diplomatic solution to the fighting in Syria.

Still, Jordan isn’t taking any chances and is hosting American Patriot air defense missiles and a detachment of about 12 U.S. Air Force F-16 Falcon fighter jets. These American forces are there to protect Jordan from any attack by Assad’s forces and not to participate in strikes against Syria.

Next up are the British, who sent six Typhoon fighter jets to their base on Cyprus, RAF (Royal Air Force) Akrotiri. Then the British Parliament got involved and said that Britain can’t participate in any strike against Syria. It looks like the RAF’s insistence that these fighters are not going to participate in any strikes against Syria and are merely there to protect British facilities in the region is legit.

“This is a precautionary measure, specifically aimed at protecting UK interests and the defence of our Sovereign Base Areas at a time of heightened tension in the wider region,” reads a British Defense Ministry statement on the deployment. “They are not deploying to take part in any military action against Syria.”

Syria’s dwindling number of friends is also offering support.

Russia, Syria’s longtime ally and top weapons supplier, is urging the United States not to strike Syria and is sending the guided-missile cruiser Moskva and an unidentified anti-submarine ship from its Northern Fleet to the eastern Mediterranean. Still, Russian military officials insist this deployment is part of a normal training rotation and is not linked to the situation in Syria, reported Russia’s state-owned RIA Novosti news agency on Aug. 29. Russia’s only overseas naval base in located in the Syrian port of Tartus and is used to support Russia’s increasing number of naval patrols on the Mediterranean Sea.

The ship-routing deployment comes the same week that Russia’s Interfax news agency reported that the Kremlin is planning to evacuate personnel from its naval base at Tartus who would normally be used to support the vessels. An IL-62 cargo plane belonging to the Russian Emergency Ministry made a very quick overnight flight from Moscow to the Syrian port of Latakia on the night of Aug. 27, staying on the ground less than two hours to pick up dozens of Russians looking to get out of Syria.

Syria’s other main ally, Iran, is complicating matters by promising retaliation if the United States launches strikes against Syria.

Gen. Mohammad Ali Jafari, commander of Iran’s Revolutionary Guards, was quoted in the Iranian news outlet Tasnim as saying an attack on Syria “means the immediate destruction of Israel,” USA Today reported.

Iran and Hezbollah, Iran’s proxy in Syria and Lebanon, are heavily involved in defending the Assad regime from the largely Sunni rebels fighting it. Iran doesn’t have any warships or major military facilities near Syria. However, the Quds force, Iran’s special unit responsible for conducting clandestine military operations overseas, has been helping the Syrian military fight the rebels for more than a year by providing training and materiel. While the vast majority of Syria’s military hardware comes from the former Soviet Union and China, Iran gives the Assad regime drones, ballistic missiles, artillery rockets, and anti-tank missiles.

As for Israel, while its leaders say it won’t participate in U.S.-led strikes on Assad, its air force has been striking targets inside Syria throughout the last year, usually hitting arms depots or weapons convoys in hopes of preventing some of Syria’s more advanced weapons from being shipped to terrorist organizations. As talk of a U.S. strike on Syria ramps up, the Israeli military has mobilized reserve forces, massing them on its northern border near Syria. Israeli government officials have said that Israel will punch back if Syria, Iran, or Hezbollah attacks it in response to American airstrikes.

“Those seeking to strike us will find us sharper and fiercer than ever,” Lt. Gen. Benny Gantz, Israel’s top military commander was quoted by the Washington Post as saying. “Our enemies must know we are determined to take any action needed to defend our citizens.”

There you have it: an entire, heavily armed corner of the world on edge, a dictator desperately fighting for his life, and an Iran that might have something to prove. What could possibly go wrong? (FP NATIONAL SECURITY)

Syrian official: We expect attack at any moment | The Times of Israel.

UN inspectors leave country as US stations 6th US warship in eastern Mediterranean amid talk of military intervention

The USS San Antonio, an amphibious assault ship, carries helicopters and Marines but no cruise missiles. (Photo credit: US Navy photo by Mass Communication Specialist 2nd Class Jason R. Zalasky/Released/ Wikipedia)

Syria expects a US attack “at any moment,” a senior Syrian official told AFP Saturday, hours after UN inspectors probing a suspected chemical weapons attack outside Damascus on August 21, left the country.

“We are expecting an attack at any moment. We are ready to retaliate at any moment,” said the Syrian security official.

A Kuwaiti paper cited by Israel Radio Saturday quoted Gulf sources as saying that the US plans to strike on Saturday, or Sunday at the latest. The paper quotes diplomatic sources as saying that America will launch strikes in Syria from various bases, including those in Turkey and Cyprus

Earlier Saturday, the team of chemical weapons inspectors, who were in Damascus for several days gathering evidence of the possible chemical weapons attack, left Syria early Saturday morning, crossing into Lebanon. This came just hours after US President Barack Obama said he is weighing “limited and narrow” action against a Syrian regime that the administration has bluntly accused of launching the deadly attack.

The team left its Damascus hotel early Saturday and made its way to the neighboring state from which it will head on to the Netherlands.

Meanwhile, a 6th US warship, the USS San Antonio, has joined the five Navy destroyers currently in the Mediterranean Sea waiting for the order to launch. The USS San Antonio is an amphibious assault ship, which is carrying helicopters and some 300 Marines, according to reports, but it has no cruise missiles, so it is not expected to participate in the attack. Instead, the ship’s long-planned transit across the Mediterranean was interrupted so that it could remain in the area to help if needed.

The destroyers are armed with dozens of Tomahawk cruise missiles, which have a range of about 1,000 nautical miles and are used for deep, precise targeting. Each one is about 20 feet long and less than two feet in diameter and carries a 1,000 pound warhead. The missiles fly at low altitudes, and their range allows the ships to sit far off the coast, out of range of any potential response by the Syrian government.

The inspectors’ departure brings the looming confrontation between the US and President Bashar Assad’s regime one step closer to coming to a head. Obama has said that if he opts for a military strike, any operation would be limited in scope and only aimed at punishing Assad for his alleged use of chemical weapons.

A vehicle with UN experts on board in a convoy following their investigation in Syria after they crossed into Lebanon on their way to Beirut international airport, in Beirut, Lebanon, Saturday, Aug. 31, 2013. (Photo credit: AP/Hussein Malla)

And as the international community dithers on how to respond, the UN inspectors will arrive in the Netherlands — having endured repeated delays, unrelenting scrutiny and even snipers’ bullets in Damascus over the course of their stay — to set in motion a meticulous process of analyzing samples at specially accredited laboratories.

According to the team’s UN mandate, the analysis will establish if a chemical attack took place, but not who was responsible for the deadly August 21 attack that Doctors Without Borders says killed 355 people and included the use of toxic gas. US Secretary of State John Kerry said Friday that Washington knows, based on intelligence, that 1,429 people were killed, and that the Syrian regime carefully prepared for days to launch the chemical weapons assault.

UN Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon is expected to get an initial briefing on the UN team’s work this weekend from disarmament chief Angela Kane, but it remains unclear exactly how long the process of examining samples will take.

UN spokesman Martin Nesirky said the team had concluded its collection of evidence, including visits to field hospitals, interviews with witnesses and doctors, and gathering biological samples and environmental samples.

Concerns about possible US action include the potential retaliation by the Syrian regime or its proxies against US allies in the region, such as Jordan, Turkey and Israel. That would inject a dangerous new dynamic into a Syrian civil war that has already killed more than 100,000 people, forced nearly 2 million to flee the country and inflamed sectarian tensions across the Middle East.

The Syrian government dismissed the administration’s claims as “flagrant lies” akin to faulty Bush administration assertions before the Iraq invasion that Saddam Hussein had weapons of mass destruction. A Foreign Ministry statement read on state TV late Friday said that “under the pretext of protecting the Syrian people, they are making a case for an aggression that will kill hundreds of innocent Syrian civilians.”

In Damascus, residents stocked up on food and other necessities in anticipation of strikes, with no evident sign of panic.

Syrian state TV on Saturday morning broadcast footage of Syrian soldiers training, fighter jets soaring in the sky and tanks firing at unseen targets, all to the backdrop of martial music. The station’s morning talk shows were dominated by discussions about a potential US military strike.

Erdogan says limited response not enough, wants Assad gone | The Times of Israel.

( I hate to agree with this dirt-bag, but this time I must. – JW )

Turkish PM rejects ’24 hour hit-and-run,’ calls for Kosovo-style air campaign

By Times of Israel staff August 31, 2013, 10:32 am

Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan addresses his supporters and lawmakers at the parliament in Ankara, Turkey, Tuesday, June 25, 2013 (photo credit: AP)

A limited military response to the reported use of chemical weapons by Syrian President Bashar Assad’s regime is not enough, and any kind of intervention should aim to topple him, Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan said late Friday.

“It can’t be a 24 hours hit-and-run,” Erdogan told reporters at the presidential palace in Ankara. “What matters is stopping the bloodshed in Syria and weakening the regime to the point where it gives up.”

Erdogan cited the 1999 NATO air campaign during the war in Kosovo as a good example of the type of action he’d like to see.

“If it is something like the example of Kosovo, the Syrian regime won’t be able to continue,” he said.

Erdogan said he would hold discussions with Obama and Russian President Vladimir Putin at the G-20 summit next week in Saint-Petersburg on September 6 and 7.

Unlike France, Turkey has not yet given clear indication that it would actively join the US in taking action against the Syrian regime.

The Turkish prime minister’s comments came just as US President Barack Obama said he was considering “limited, narrow” action against Syria for its used of weapons of mass destruction on August 21 in an attack the US says killed 1,429 people.

Turkish President Abdullah Gul took a more moderate approach, according to the Turkish daily Today’s Zaman, saying that a genuine political strategy was needed as limited military strikes would not yield the desires result.

“There would be a political and diplomatic solution to the problem. Russia and Iran somehow should be included in the process,” Gül said.

There are currently some 500,000 Syrian refugees currently living in Turkey. The Syrian civil war has claimed the lives of more than 100,000 people, according to the latest UN figures.

UN inspectors leave Syria as 6th US warship stationed in eastern Mediterranean | The Times of Israel.

Team of weapons investigators will head to Europe to examine traces of possible use of WMDs, amid talk of military intervention

The USS San Antonio, an amphibious assault ship, carries helicopters and Marines but no cruise missiles. (Photo credit: US Navy photo by Mass Communication Specialist 3rd Class John K. Hamilton/Released/Wikipedia)

The team of chemical weapons inspectors, who have been in Damascus for several days now gathering evidence of a possible chemical weapons attack near Damascus on August 21, left Syria early Saturday morning, crossing into Lebanon. This comes just hours after US President Barack Obama said he is weighing “limited and narrow” action against a Syrian regime that the administration has bluntly accused of launching the deadly attack.

The team left its Damascus hotel early Saturday and made its way to the neighboring state from which it will head on to the Netherlands.

Meanwhile, a 6th US Navy destroyer, the USS San Antonio, has joined the five ships currently in the Mediterranean Sea waiting for the order to launch. The USS San Antonio is an amphibious assault ship, which is carrying helicopters and some 300 Marines, according to reports, but it has no cruise missiles, so it is not expected to participate in the attack. Instead, the ship’s long-planned transit across the Mediterranean was interrupted so that it could remain in the area to help if needed.

The destroyers are armed with dozens of Tomahawk cruise missiles, which have a range of about 1,000 nautical miles and are used for deep, precise targeting. Each one is about 20 feet long and less than two feet in diameter and carries a 1,000 pound warhead. The missiles fly at low altitudes, and their range allows the ships to sit far off the coast, out of range of any potential response by the Syrian government.

The inspectors’ departure brings the looming confrontation between the US and President Bashar Assad’s regime one step closer to coming to a head.

And as the international community dithers on how to respond to the reported use of chemical weapons by the regime, the UN inspectors will arrive in the Netherlands — having endured repeated delays, unrelenting scrutiny and even snipers’ bullets in Damascus over the course of their stay — to set in motion a meticulous process of analyzing samples at specially accredited laboratories.

UN inspectors being escorted this week by Syrian rebels in Damascus (photo credit: AP/United media office of Arbeen)

According to the team’s UN mandate, the analysis will establish if a chemical attack took place, but not who was responsible for a deadly August 21 attack that Doctors Without Borders says killed 355 people and included the use of toxic gas. US Secretary of State John Kerry said Friday that Washington knows, based on intelligence, that 1,429 people were killed, and that the Syrian regime carefully prepared for days to launch the chemical weapons assault.

UN Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon is expected to get an initial briefing on the UN team’s work this weekend from disarmament chief Angela Kane, but it remains unclear exactly how long the process of examining samples will take.

UN spokesman Martin Nesirky said the team had concluded its collection of evidence, including visits to field hospitals, interviews with witnesses and doctors, and gathering biological samples and environmental samples.

The Organization for the Prohibition of Chemical Weapons, which provided most of the 12-strong team of inspectors, has stringent guidelines for handling and testing samples at a chain of special labs around the world to ensure it delivers unimpeachable results — which could have far-reaching ramifications once they are reported at the United Nations in New York.

“It has to be accurate. The procedure has to be absolutely rigid and well-documented,” former OPCW worker Ralf Trapp told The Associated Press on Friday.

Key to the procedure is a rock-solid chain of custody rules for the samples and analysis of each sample by two or possibly three different labs. The OPCW works with 21 laboratories around the world that have to pass a proficiency test each year to ensure their work meets the organization’s standards.

Strictly documenting who has had custody of samples every step of their journey from the chaos of a Damascus war zone to the sterile serenity of a specially certified lab ensures that the material to be tested is what the inspectors say it is.

The labs, and even the inspectors themselves, will likely have been chosen from countries with a neutral stance on the Syrian conflict, experts say. Inspectors at the OPCW generally are analytical chemists and chemical weapons munitions experts.

Samples they gather are put in vials that are sealed and then put in a transport container that is also secured with a fiber-optic seal, said Trapp, who is now an independent disarmament consultant. Every time the container changes hands it is documented.

“A lot of stuff is built into the system to make sure nobody has tampered with the samples or replaced one with another,” he said.

Once they have taken custody of the samples, chemists at the laboratories will test them for traces of chemicals banned under the Chemical Weapons Convention. The samples will be sent to two or three labs whose results will be cross-checked to ensure they match up, again reducing the chance of an inaccurate result.

The inspectors’ mission has been shrouded in as much secrecy as is possible in Syria and will remain so once the team returns to the Netherlands.

There has been no official word on what type of samples they have gathered, but media reports suggest they collected soil that could be contaminated and swipes from munitions, along with blood and hair samples from victims and possibly even tissue from corpses, Trapp said.

Officials at the OPCW, headquartered in The Hague close to the UN’s Yugoslav war crimes tribunal and the European Union’s Europol police organization, say team members will make no comment on their return.

That means the first time their full findings are expected to be known will be after they are sent to UN headquarters in New York.

What remains unclear is when exactly that will happen. Trapp said the painstaking testing will take several days and the labs working on the samples won’t sacrifice accuracy for the sake of quick results.

“In the current situation they would probably be pressed to speed up as much as they can, but there’s always the risk if you speed it up too much that you will end up with results that could be contested by somebody,” he said.

Kuwaiti diplomats: US assault on Syria just hours away | JPost | Israel News.

US government’s assessment of Syria’s use of chemical weapons | Fox News.

The United States Government assesses with high confidence that the Syrian government carried out a chemical weapons attack in the Damascus suburbs on August 21, 2013. We further assess that the regime used a nerve agent in the attack. 

These all-source assessments are based on human, signals, and geospatial intelligence as well as a significant body of open source reporting. Our classified assessments have been shared with the U.S. Congress and key international partners. To protect sources and methods, we cannot publicly release all available intelligence – but what follows is an unclassified summary of the U.S. Intelligence Community’s analysis of what took place.

Syrian Government Use of Chemical Weapons on August 21

A large body of independent sources indicates that a chemical weapons attack took place in the Damascus suburbs on August 21. In addition to U.S. intelligence information, there are accounts from international and Syrian medical personnel; videos; witness accounts; thousands of social media reports from at least 12 different locations in the Damascus area; journalist accounts; and reports from highly credible nongovernmental organizations.

A preliminary U.S. government assessment determined that 1,429 people were killed in the chemical weapons attack, including at least 426 children, though this assessment will certainly evolve as we obtain more information.

We assess with high confidence that the Syrian government carried out the chemical weapons attack against opposition elements in the Damascus suburbs on August 21. We assess that the scenario in which the opposition executed the attack on August 21 is highly unlikely. The body of information used to make this assessment includes intelligence pertaining to the regime’s preparations for this attack and its means of delivery, multiple streams of intelligence about the attack itself and its effect, our post-attack observations, and the differences between the capabilities of the regime and the opposition. Our high confidence assessment is the strongest position that the U.S. Intelligence Community can take short of confirmation. We will continue to seek additional information to close gaps in our understanding of what took place.

Background:

The Syrian regime maintains a stockpile of numerous chemical agents, including mustard, sarin, and VX and has thousands of munitions that can be used to deliver chemical warfare agents.

Syrian President Bashar al-Asad is the ultimate decision maker for the chemical weapons program and members of the program are carefully vetted to ensure security and loyalty. The Syrian Scientific Studies and Research Center (SSRC) – which is subordinate to the Syrian Ministry of Defense – manages Syria’s chemical weapons program.

We assess with high confidence that the Syrian regime has used chemical weapons on a small scale against the opposition multiple times in the last year, including in the Damascus suburbs. This assessment is based on multiple streams of information including reporting of Syrian officials planning and executing chemical weapons attacks and laboratory analysis of physiological samples obtained from a number of individuals, which revealed exposure to sarin.

We assess that the opposition has not used chemical weapons.

The Syrian regime has the types of munitions that we assess were used to carry out the attack on August 21, and has the ability to strike simultaneously in multiple locations. We have seen no indication that the opposition has carried out a large-scale, coordinated rocket and artillery attack like the one that occurred on August 21.

We assess that the Syrian regime has used chemical weapons over the last year primarily to gain the upper hand or break a stalemate in areas where it has struggled to seize and hold strategically valuable territory. In this regard, we continue to judge that the Syrian regime views chemical weapons as one of many tools in its arsenal, including air power and ballistic missiles, which they indiscriminately use against the opposition.

The Syrian regime has initiated an effort to rid the Damascus suburbs of opposition forces using the area as a base to stage attacks against regime targets in the capital. The regime has failed to clear dozens of Damascus neighborhoods of opposition elements, including neighborhoods targeted on August 21, despite employing nearly all of its conventional weapons systems. We assess that the regime’s frustration with its inability to secure large portions of Damascus may have contributed to its decision to use chemical weapons on August 21.

Preparation:

We have intelligence that leads us to assess that Syrian chemical weapons personnel – including personnel assessed to be associated with the SSRC – were preparing chemical munitions prior to the attack. In the three days prior to the attack, we collected streams of human, signals and geospatial intelligence that reveal regime activities that we assess were associated with preparations for a chemical weapons attack.

Syrian chemical weapons personnel were operating in the Damascus suburb of ‘Adra from Sunday, August 18 until early in the morning on Wednesday, August 21 near an area that the regime uses to mix chemical weapons, including sarin. On August 21, a Syrian regime element prepared for a chemical weapons attack in the Damascus area, including through the utilization of gas masks. Our intelligence sources in the Damascus area did not detect any indications in the days prior to the attack that opposition affiliates were planning to use chemical weapons.

The Attack:

Multiple streams of intelligence indicate that the regime executed a rocket and artillery attack against the Damascus suburbs in the early hours of August 21. Satellite detections corroborate that attacks from a regime-controlled area struck neighborhoods where the chemical attacks reportedly occurred – including Kafr Batna, Jawbar, ‘Ayn Tarma, Darayya, and Mu’addamiyah. This includes the detection of rocket launches from regime controlled territory early in the morning, approximately 90 minutes before the first report of a chemical attack appeared in social media. The lack of flight activity or missile launches also leads us to conclude that the regime used rockets in the attack.

Local social media reports of a chemical attack in the Damascus suburbs began at 2:30 a.m. local time on August 21. Within the next four hours there were thousands of social media reports on this attack from at least 12 different locations in the Damascus area. Multiple accounts described chemical-filled rockets impacting opposition-controlled areas.

Three hospitals in the Damascus area received approximately 3,600 patients displaying symptoms consistent with nerve agent exposure in less than three hours on the morning of August 21, according to a highly credible international humanitarian organization. The reported symptoms, and the epidemiological pattern of events – characterized by the massive influx of patients in a short period of time, the origin of the patients, and the contamination of medical and first aid workers – were consistent with mass exposure to a nerve agent. We also received reports from international and Syrian medical personnel on the ground.

We have identified one hundred videos attributed to the attack, many of which show large numbers of bodies exhibiting physical signs consistent with, but not unique to, nerve agent exposure. The reported symptoms of victims included unconsciousness, foaming from the nose and mouth, constricted pupils, rapid heartbeat, and difficulty breathing. Several of the videos show what appear to be numerous fatalities with no visible injuries, which is consistent with death from chemical weapons, and inconsistent with death from small-arms, high-explosive munitions or blister agents. At least 12 locations are portrayed in the publicly available videos, and a sampling of those videos confirmed that some were shot at the general times and locations described in the footage.

We assess the Syrian opposition does not have the capability to fabricate all of the videos, physical symptoms verified by medical personnel and NGOs, and other information associated with this chemical attack.

We have a body of information, including past Syrian practice, that leads us to conclude that regime officials were witting of and directed the attack on August 21. We intercepted communications involving a senior official intimately familiar with the offensive who confirmed that chemical weapons were used by the regime on August 21 and was concerned with the U.N. inspectors obtaining evidence. On the afternoon of August 21, we have intelligence that Syrian chemical weapons personnel were directed to cease operations. At the same time, the regime intensified the artillery barrage targeting many of the neighborhoods where chemical attacks occurred. In the 24 hour period after the attack, we detected indications of artillery and rocket fire at a rate approximately four times higher than the ten preceding days.

We continued to see indications of sustained shelling in the neighborhoods up until the morning of August 26.

To conclude, there is a substantial body of information that implicates the Syrian government’s responsibility in the chemical weapons attack that took place on August 21. As indicated, there is additional intelligence that remains classified because of sources and methods concerns that is being provided to Congress and international partners.

Obama to speak about Syria during 2:15 ET public comments: official – News – AM 590 – WKZO Everything Kalamazoo.

Obama to speak about Syria during 2:15 ET public comments: official

WASHINGTON (Reuters) – President Barack Obama will speak about Syria during a 2:15 ET White House appearance on Friday with three leaders of Baltic nations, a senior administration official said.

Obama will address Syria “to some extent” before a meeting with presidents of Estonia, Lithuania and Latvia, the official said.