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A united world should not fear Assad

August 28, 2013

Israel Hayom | A united world should not fear Assad.

The world has been thinking out loud about the expected Western attack on Syrian President Bashar Assad’s regime. The question is no longer if, but rather how and when. The media is inundated with pictures of victims from the regime’s use of chemical weapons.

And now it is not only the generals who are preparing for the strike, but opinion makers are preparing the world for it as well. U.S. President Barack Obama would obviously prefer to be dealing with other things. Truth be told, so would we. But since when has the Middle East ever promised us and the world that it would be quiet?

Four of the most powerful and central countries in NATO — the U.S., France, Britain and Turkey — have ramped up their rhetoric in the past 48 hours. In their eyes, the U.N. chemical weapon inspectors’ work in Damascus, set for Wednesday, has already become pointless. Assad crossed the line this time and needs to be punished. The question of whether an alternative to Assad is preferable is not even on the table. The answer to that is clear, and no one is fooling themselves into thinking that if and when Assad falls Syria will be come a better place for the region and the world as a whole.

No one believes that after this attack — the scope of which has yet to be determined — a democracy will arise in Syria. After Western actions in Muslim lands such as Iraq, Afghanistan and Libya, it has become clear that the day after will not be pretty.

But the West does not have much choice. Standing idly by as chemical weapons are used would make the West look like a pointless and impotent moral force, even in its already limited capacity. The West would turn into an all-bark, no-bite entity. The age-old global divide between good guys and bad guys would make way for a world split into bad guys and weaklings. Washington understands this cannot happen. Secretary of State John Kerry’s speech on Monday night was something we expected to hear from America.

The question is how Assad’s friends will react in case of an attack. Tehran has recognized the use of chemical weapons, but is a staunch opponent of any attack on Syria and has threatened dire consequences if one takes place. It is fair to assume that Iran will not become involved. It is the last thing it should do during a time when it wants to keep a low profile and allow its centrifuges to continue spinning. Tehran is more concerned with its own regime’s survival and its nuclear project. It is likely that Iran will do as it did during the U.S. invasion of Iraq: Keep its head down, and perhaps advance its illegal nuclear project until things settle down.

The real test is Russia. This is without a doubt the biggest confrontation between the U.S. and Russia since the end of the Cold War. While we have seen disagreements between the superpowers over Kosovo and Iraq, this time the clash appears to be much more serious. Since the beginning of Syria’s civil war on March 15, 2011, Russia has become Assad’s guard dog. It will be interesting to see just how far Russian President Vladimir Putin is willing to go in his opposition to the slated attack on his last ally in the Middle East. Let’s not forget that this diplomatic showdown is taking place on the heels of the NSA whistle-blower Edward Snowden affair.

Clearly, there is some set of actions that could accommodate both Russia and the Obama administration: One such scenario could be a surgical strike by the Americans using cruise missiles on Syrian targets — something which could be carried out over a very short span of time — while at the same time moving up the scheduled talks between the U.S. and Russia in The Hague, originally set for October, before the second round of Geneva talks. It would be very convenient for Obama to attack, it would fulfill his obligation while not going overboard, and now he has the international green light and the means to a quick diplomatic solution. Assad can also live with this scenario, especially if he gains Russia and Iran as active members in the second round of the Geneva talks.

The winds of war have blown as far as Australia, which is now stepping in line with the U.S. Australian Prime Minister Kevin Rudd spoke with Obama over possible NATO plans for a strike on Syria.

Assad, just like Saddam Hussein in 1991, is threatening to set the region ablaze. He has no choice. But a united world has no reason to fear Assad, and a united West needs to stop fearing him as well. Even the ailing Arab world, in a fragile state after the events of the past two and a half years, is unable to prevent an attack on Syria. There may be no democracy in the Arab world, but the will to live in freedom has grown and so has the sway of the Arab street, which has long ruled on Assad. Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah did not see this and nearly lost everything as a result.

Assad is long due to be the sixth Arab leader to be ousted since 2011. The pictures we have seen for months of children’s bodies in Syria have it made it clear as day: He has to go. But the West will presumably be satisfied with simply preventing the use of chemical weapons, something which the U.N. Security Council should have taken upon itself from the beginning. Removing Assad from power was not supposed to be part of the plan.

Success for Obama in Syria spells success for us as well. Woe to the world which stands silent while unconventional weapons are used. And to think we still have a regional madman striving to get nuclear weapons.

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The shape of the battle to come

August 28, 2013

Israel Hayom | The shape of the battle to come.

Given the current global disposition against Syrian President Bashar Assad’s regime in Syria, a U.S.-led strike seems almost inevitable. Western leaders such as David Cameron, Francois Hollande, Chuck Hagel and others, invested a great deal of effort on Tuesday to build up an atmosphere that will enable the West to launch such an attack without evoking too much antagonism from their publics.

The U.S. has made clear that the looming attack is a “punishment” for Assad’s use of chemical weapons, and not an attempt to topple his regime or intervene in the civil war that has been tearing Syria apart for nearly three years. In that case, it is safe to assume that the attack may take a “standoff” shape, most likely a barrage of Tomahawk cruise missiles fired from U.S. battleships against several quality Syrian targets, such as missile depots, air bases and power stations. Chemical weapons depots are unlikely to be targeted, so as not to cause mass collateral damage, especially among civilians. There is also the possibility that hitting WMD sites could render them vulnerable to rebel looting.

It is quite clear that the West is unwilling to jeopardize a single soldier’s life in this affair.

The big question is what Assad will do in the event of a strike. Logically, he should take it for what it is, a punishment for having crossed the line, like a slap on the wrist. He can tolerate a symbolic response by the West, minimize his losses and secure his regime. But, as we have painfully witnessed over the last couple of years, logic in the Middle East seems to be on an extended hiatus. There is a serious possibility that since Assad cannot really hit U.S. targets, he will choose to rain his missiles on Israel. Iran, Hezbollah and Assad himself have stated, loudly and clearly, that Israel will pay the price of an American attack on Syria. Though not an original idea — Saddam Hussein did the same thing in the 1991 Gulf War (and look where it got him) — it is a threat that Israel should take seriously.

Defensively, Israel is well-equipped and has the Iron Dome system against short-range rockets and missiles, and the Arrow 2 defense system against ballistic missiles. The Patriot PAC-3 also has some limited anti-missile capabilities, but this is not its primary mission.

Unfortunately, the David’s Sling system, which is supposed to bridge the gap between short- and long-range threats, and deal with medium-range threats, is not operational at this time, and won’t be operational for the foreseeable future. And that is exactly where Assad’s forte lies: He has a huge arsenal of heavy, medium-range rockets (M-500 and Iranian built rockets), which threaten the heart of Israel.

What should Israel do? Israel’s strength is in offense. The Israel Air Force is far superior to Syria’s air force, or any other Arab air force, in sophistication, equipment, experience and sheer strength. This is a formidable might that can literally wipe Assad’s army out within a very short span of time. So, this is what Israel should use if the need arises.

If Assad launches a serious attack, conventional or unconventional, Israel should not wait for the second wave. It should strike, and strike hard, at the Syrian missile launching pads, at strategic infrastructures, and at quality military targets. A fierce attack, for which Israel is well-equipped, will also send a very clear message to other parties in the area, who might be contemplating joining the party, to stand down.

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What is the mission?

August 28, 2013

Israel Hayom | What is the mission?.

As I write this, an American strike on Syria is a fait accompli and the countdown to it has begun. The strike is likely to take place in the next few days, and the U.S. seems to be debating the mission’s objectives, as the campaign is meant to achieve deterrence, but not necessarily a decisive result. Israel is currently out of the game, and our leaders have sent undiplomatic messages to Damascus to that effect, meant to deter Syria from even thinking about striking Israel.

These messages were sent despite military assessments that Syria will not risk a confrontation with Israel at this time. The events of the last few years, including the attack on the nuclear reactor in Deir ez-Zor 2007, the assassinations of Imad Fayez Mughniyeh and Gen. Muhammad Suleiman in 2008 and the airstrikes of the recent months — all of which were attributed to Israel — have taught Bashar Assad that he is operationally vulnerable.

As a president desperate to hold on to his seat, he is unlikely to initiate a military conflict that is sure to spell his downfall. That is also why the Israel Defense Forces has not changed its level of alert at this time. Heightened vigilance has been in place for days, but no orders have been given to call up the reserves or open up the tactical command centers. That will likely happen once the Americans inform Israel that the strike is underway, at which time the Homefront Command and the Israel Air Force will go on high alert.

Still, despite these reassurances, we are unlikely to escape completely unscathed. Assad has already proved that he does not play by the West’s rational rules, and he will have to vent his frustration somewhere, to save face. The immediate soft underbelly, as far as Syrian’s enemies go, is Jordan — or the Golan Heights.

Assad may launch rockets at the Golan Heights directly, or use his proxy, Hezbollah, and as cynical as this may sound, the consequences of such a move would be acceptable for everyone: The Syrian regime would flex its muscles in the limited Golan theater, not placing itself in any actual risk, and Israel would mount a limited response, avoiding an all-out war.

But the Israeli concerns in this case are peanuts. The real question here is, what will the Americans aim for, Assad’s chemical weapon depositories, missile caches, military units or symbols of government? It is believed that the planned strike will be a limited one, as U.S. President Barack Obama is reluctant to find himself embroiled in a lengthy military campaign and the West is not interested in toppling Assad’s regime, fearing the radicals who may take his place would be much worse.

The American strike will most likely aim to deter, punish and degrade Syria’s ability to employ chemical weapons again, as a manner of enforcing the red lines it drew for the regime. As far as Israel is concerned, this will send an important message not only to Damascus but to Tehran as well, which hopefully would understand that playing with fire will get you burned.

Until the fog of war clears and the results of the attack become evident, we are sure to face some tense days in the Middle East. During this time, our gut feeling is that Assad must be made to pay for his crimes, but our heads will urge caution. In between, cool logic and composure will be required to ensure that Israel remains out of the bloody battlefield in Syria.

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Western powers ‘ready to go’ for military strike against Syria

August 28, 2013

Israel Hayom | Western powers ‘ready to go’ for military strike against Syria.

The objective: Punish and deter Assad and degrade Syria’s weapons • Strike could come as early as Thursday • Syrian Army’s elite 4th Division, commanded by Assad’s brother, evacuates its Damascus base • Russia evacuates its citizens from Tartus.

Dan Lavie, Reuters and Israel Hayom Staff

A U.S. warplane lands on the USS Harry S. Truman aircraft carrier in the Persian Gulf

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Photo credit: AFP

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The United States and its allies were gearing up on Wednesday for a probable military strike against Syria that could happen as early as Thursday. , as punishment for the Aug. 21 chemical weapons attacks blamed on President Bashar Assad’s government.

The gathering military deployment was spurred by new intelligence that convinced U.S. President Barack Obama’s top national security advisers that forces loyal to Assad had used chemical weapons and that they were actively trying to cover up evidence of it even while they shelled the site of the attack, officials told The Wall Street Journal.

The Journal reported that one crucial piece of the emerging case came from Israeli spy services, which provided the Central Intelligence Agency with intelligence from inside an elite special Syrian unit that oversees Assad’s chemical weapons, Arab diplomats told the paper. The intelligence, which the CIA was able to verify, showed that certain types of chemical weapons were moved in advance to the same Damascus suburbs where the attack allegedly took place a week ago, Arab diplomats told the newspaper.

Western powers have told the Syrian opposition to expect military action against Assad’s forces soon, according to sources who attended a meeting between envoys and the Syrian National Coalition in Istanbul.

The latest developments as of Wednesday afternoon:

• Britain stated it would put forward a resolution to the U.N. Security Council condemning the Syrian government for the alleged chemical attack and would seek a measure “authorizing necessary measures to protect civilians” in Syria.

• Israel’s government convened a meeting of the security cabinet.

• Al Arabiya reported that the Syrian Army 4th Division was evacuating its base on Mount Qasioun in northern Damascus. Bashar Assad’s brother Maher commands that elite unit.

• U.N. arms experts resumed their chemical weapons probe in Syria on Wednesday.

• Russia has evacuated more than 100 citizens from Syria on two planes, which flew them from the Syrian port city of Latakia.

• Foreign Policy reported on Tuesday night that U.S. intelligence had intercepted a frantic phone call from an official in the Syrian Defense Ministry to an officer who fired artillery shells with chemical agents in them last week in eastern Damascus.

Amid a quickening drumbeat of preparations, U.S. Defense Secretary Chuck Hagel said American forces in the region were “ready to go” if President Barack Obama gave the order, as intelligence agencies assembled what was sure to be final confirmation of the Syrian government’s culpability for Wednesday’s poison gas attack near Damascus.

U.S. officials said the attack was likely to last three days. Jeremy Bash, chief of staff to former Defense Secretary Leon Panetta, told MSNBC that the strike’s objective would be to “punish, deter and degrade [Syria’s weapons], and that is an important military objective.”

White House spokesman Jay Carney said it would “fanciful” to think that anyone other than Assad’s forces was responsible for the chemical attack, which killed hundreds of people as they slept.

Obama had yet to make a final decision on the U.S. response, Carney said, but left little doubt that it would involve military action. He insisted, however, that Washington was not intent on “regime change,” signaling that any military strikes would be limited and not meant to topple Assad.

The British military was also drafting plans. Prime Minister David Cameron, anxious, like Obama, not to emulate the entanglements in wars in Afghanistan and Iraqi that beset their predecessors, said any strikes would be “specific” so as not to drag the allies deeper into the Syrian civil war now in its third year.

Cameron recalled Parliament for a debate on Syria on Thursday.

U.N. chemical weapons investigators put off until Wednesday a second trip to the rebel-held suburbs of Damascus, where activists say hundreds of civilians died a week ago.

While evidence of chemical warfare could bolster an argument for intervention at the United Nations in the face of likely Russian and Chinese opposition, Western leaders and the Arab League have already declared Assad guilty.

Ahmad Jarba, president of the rebel Syrian National Coalition, met envoys from 11 countries at an Istanbul hotel, including the U.S. ambassador to Syria, Robert Ford. The rebel leaders proposed targets for cruise missiles and bombing.

One participant said: “The opposition was told in clear terms that action to deter further use of chemical weapons by the Assad regime could come as early as in the next few days.”

Planning appears to focus on missile or air strikes. There is little public support in Western countries for troops to invade Syria.

“We have moved assets in place to be able to fulfill and comply with whatever option the president wishes to take,” Hagel said.

The precise timing of possible military action remained unclear, but it is certain to wait for an official U.S. intelligence report blaming Assad’s government for the chemical attack. The findings, considered merely a formality at this point, will be released this week, U.S. officials said.

Russia, Assad’s main arms supplier, opposes military action and has suggested that rebel forces may have released the poison gas. China’s state news agency recalled how flawed intelligence was used to justify the U.S.-led invasion of Iraq in 2003.

Moscow and Beijing accuse Western powers of using human rights complaints, such as in Libya, to meddle in sovereign states’ affairs. White House spokesman Carney insisted: “The options that we are considering are not about regime change. They are about responding to a clear violation of an international standard that prohibits the use of chemical weapons.”

Although Obama has long said Assad should step down, he is unwilling to commit to making that happen by force. Carney said it was “profoundly in the interests of the United States” to respond to the chemical weapons attack.

In Britain, Cameron told reporters: “This is not about getting involved in a Middle Eastern war or changing our stance in Syria or going further into that conflict. It’s about chemical weapons. Their use is wrong, and the world shouldn’t stand idly by.”

In France, which played a major role in Libya, President Francois Hollande said he was “ready to punish” Assad for using the chemical weapons, citing a 2005 U.N. provision for international action to protect civilians from their own governments.

In an indication of support from Arab states that may help Western powers argue the case for an attack against likely U.N. vetoes from Moscow and Beijing, the Arab League issued a statement holding Assad’s government responsible for the chemical attack.

Ahead of the possible strike, Russia began evacuating its citizens from Syria. Moscow’s Emergency Situations Ministry sent an Ilyushin-76 jet to the Latakia airport with 20 tons of humanitarian aid on Tuesday. The jet was to take “180 people who have expressed a desire to leave Syria” back to Russia on Wednesday.

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This is how the US goes to battle

August 28, 2013

Israel Hayom | This is how the US goes to battle.

One of the hallmarks of U.S. foreign policy throughout history has been a carefully thought-out decision-making process. Unlike their Israeli counterparts, American policymakers prefer not to wing it. This reduces uncertainty.

As was the case in previous U.S.-led interventions, there are two main phases in U.S. strategic planning. The first involves an internal discourse among administration officials over what the preferred strategy should be and what alternative courses of actions could be pursued. Then, it is up to the president to make a decision.

Because the decision-making process in the U.S. puts an emphasis on continuity — administrations like to rely on precedents and on previous formal decisions that have a legal footing — the initial planning was rather simple this time around. The clear delineation of red lines by President Barack Obama a year ago, and their subsequent breach, meant that it was unnecessary to deliberate on the question of principle of whether a forceful response was required.

That is why the administration proceeded to issue an indictment against the regime, based on incriminating information gathered by the intelligence community. And that is why a military strike against the regime has won across-the-board support within the administration early on. This consensus, which included Defense Secretary Chuck Hagel — who is as dovish as they come — grew as the suspicions against Syrian President Bashar Assad mounted. Obama has indicated that he is party to this prevailing sentiment many times. But he has yet to answer the biggest question being asked in the Oval Office: What form of military action should be taken?

All eyes are on Obama as he deliberates. Meanwhile, his cabinet members and his senior advisers are pitching the military option to a skeptical and critical public. Even this would be carried out through meticulous planning and with a clear delegation of responsibilities, with each cabinet member allotted their share of airtime. And Obama, even as shoulders the responsibilities as the top decisionmaker, is busy marshaling international support for the emerging strike.

The mystery will be solved in coming days, once the missiles start flying and the artillery fires.

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Netanyahu: No Need to Change Routines of Life

August 28, 2013

Netanyahu: No Need to Change Routines of Life – Defense/Security – News – Israel National News.

A second Iron Dome battery will deploy in the north. Arrow 2 batteries to be placed on high alert.

By Gil Ronen

First Publish: 8/28/2013, 2:26 PM

PM Binyamin Netanyahu

PM Binyamin Netanyahu

Flash 90

Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu ussied a short statement Wednesday, calming fraught nerves as Israeli citizens brace for a US-led strike on Syria and its possible repercussions.

“Pursuant to the security consultation that was held today, there is no reason to change daily routines,” Netanyahu said in a statement relayed by his media advisor. “At the same time, we are prepared for any scenario. The IDF is ready to defend against any threat and to respond strongly against any attempt to harm Israeli citizens.”

Following reports of an upcoming attack by western powers in Syria, the IDF has decided to deploy a second Iron Dome anti-missile battery in northern Israel.

In addition, a Patriot battery has been deployed in central Israel.

The IAF, meanwhile, has decided to raise the level of alertness of its Arrow 2 missile system as well. The Arrow 2 is designed to intercept ballistic missiles.

IDF Spokesman Brig. Gen. Yoav Mordechai posted on his Facebook page that “It is important to make clear that the developments around the events in Syria… are being led by the U.S. with a widening coalition, which includes other countries in the Middle East.

“As is required, the IDF is examining, following and watching the developments, hour by hour. The Home Front Command knows its job well and is prepared to give any required solution for the population, and therefore there is no reason to change our daily routine,” the spokesman said.

Earlier today, Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu convened the Diplomacy and Security Cabinet, in order to discuss the preparations for the expected US strike in Syria. The ministers heard intelligence briefings and were briefed on the security establishment’s preparations for an attack on al-Assad’s regime.

US President Barack Obama spoke with British Prime Minister David Cameron Wednesday morning and coordinated positions regarding an attack in Syria. The leaders agreed that the Syrian regime is behind the chemical weapons attack in Damascus last week.

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Tense decisions for Obama on Syria

August 28, 2013

Tense decisions for Obama on Syria | The Times of Israel.

Pressure to delay an attack, and the president’s busy schedule, make it difficult to predict when the US will strike

By Josh Lederman August 28, 2013, 2:03 pm

US President Barack Obama at Henninger High School in Syracuse, New York, August 22, 2013. (photo credit: AP /Jacquelyn Martin)

US President Barack Obama at Henninger High School in Syracuse, New York, August 22, 2013. (photo credit: AP /Jacquelyn Martin)

WASHINGTON (AP) — Preparations for a highly anticipated strike on Syria could lead to an awkward decision on timing.

Few doubt that President Barack Obama is preparing for a US-led military action to retaliate for what the US and its allies say was a deadly chemical weapons attack perpetrated by the Syrian government. But there are few good options for when to attack.

Wednesday, for example, would make for an uncomfortable juxtaposition of themes. That’s the day Obama will stand on the steps of the Lincoln Memorial, paying tribute to Martin Luther King Jr. on the 50th anniversary of the nonviolent leader’s “I Have a Dream” speech.

Thursday is also problematic. That’s when British Prime Minister David Cameron is set to convene an emergency meeting of Parliament, where lawmakers are expected to vote on a motion clearing the way for Britain to respond to the alleged chemical weapons attack.

Days later, on Tuesday, Obama embarks on an overseas trip that will take him away from the White House for most of the week.

Would Obama really want to be running a military operation from Sweden? Or from Russia, which vigorously opposes action against Syria?

Compounding the pressure, some lawmakers and allies are urging Obama to proceed slowly and seek UN Security Council approval, while others are imploring the president to act quickly and decisively. After all, Obama’s response earlier this year after the US first concluded that Syrian President Bashar Assad had used chemical weapons was criticized as too little, too late.

“The longer you wait, the less meaningful it becomes,” said Barry Pavel, a former top national security official in the George W. Bush and Obama administrations.

Lawmakers from both political parties have called on Obama to consult Congress before taking action — a step the White House says is now underway. Obama also is seeking buy-in from Western allies such as Britain and France, and from regional organizations like the 22-member Arab League, which has signaled its interest in justice for victims of the alleged chemical weapons attacks and blamed the Syrian regime.

But those consultations, too, limit the haste with which the US can act without going it alone.

Although Defense Secretary Chuck Hagel says the US military is in position to strike as soon as Obama gives the order, the administration has yet to release a promised intelligence report formally linking Assad to the attack. That report would provide a key rationale and underpinning for the administration’s assertion that a game-changing response was warranted.

The report could be released as early as Wednesday, the same day as Obama’s speech marking the anniversary of the 1963 March on Washington.

A successful vote Thursday in Britain’s Parliament would mark the start of short window that national security experts say could be the least worst time for Obama to act. But a senior administration official said once Obama decides on what action to take, he won’t delay the decision because of outside factors or competing events.

Obama, on Tuesday, will travel to Stockholm for his first visit as president to Sweden. The Northern European nation has claimed a position of neutrality in international conflicts for about 200 years.

Two days later, he heads to St. Petersburg, Russia, for the Group of 20 economic summit with leading foreign counterparts. A major conference intended to focus on wonky issues like tax evasion and monetary policy could easily be subsumed by a military incursion in a Mideast hot spot embroiling the US and potentially other G-20 nations.

What’s more, Russia, the host of the summit, is staunchly backing Assad and would be among the most vocal opponents of a military strike in Syria. An American-led attack on Assad’s forces while world leaders meet in Russia would be a major embarrassment for the Kremlin, and would deliver yet another blow to shaky relations between Russia and the US, already at a low point since the recent US decision to cancel a bilateral meeting between Obama and Russian President Vladimir Putin.

“The president has to be prepared for a lot of tension and a high degree of awkwardness,” said Nikolas Gvosdev, a national security professor at the US Naval War College.

Despite the messy optics, Obama’s foreign travel next week will not be a factor in his decision about when to act, said the administration official, who wasn’t authorized to discuss internal deliberations publicly and requested anonymity. The main factor in when an action starts will be how long it takes to get it off the ground once Obama makes the call. An increase in foreign assistance, for example, would take a while to ramp up, while a military action could be ordered right away.

There’s precedent for Obama to take military action while outside the US. It was in Brazil in 2011 when Obama, on a five-day Latin America swing, authorized limited military action against Libya to counter Moammar Gadhafi’s assault on his own people.

The pressure on Obama to act is amplified by his pledge last year that such a chemical weapons attack would cross a red line for the US. Activists say hundreds were killed in the Damascus suburbs on Aug. 21.

US officials say a response most likely would involve sea-launched cruise missile attacks on Syrian military targets. Logistical and military considerations could also play a role in determining when the US and others take action. Military experts and US officials said strikes probably would come during the night, a strategy that could help minimize civilian causalities.

The US may also seek to wait until after the UN team in Syria investigating chemical weapons allegations has left the country. The team is scheduled to leave Syria in about a week, but the most recent purported chemical weapons attack has created the possibility that the team’s two-week trip could be extended.

Copyright 2013 The Associated Press.

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Jittery Israelis overrun gas mask distribution points

August 28, 2013

Jittery Israelis overrun gas mask distribution points | The Times ofIsrael.

As IDF moves missile defense batteries northward, authorities struggle to keep up with demand for protection against chemical weapons

By Haviv Rettig Gur August 28, 2013, 2:27 pm

An Israeli woman shows her daughter how to put on a gas mask at a distribution center in Jerusalem, Tuesday, August 27, 2013 (photo credit: Yonatan Sindel/Flash90)

An Israeli woman shows her daughter how to put on a gas mask at a distribution center in Jerusalem, Tuesday, August 27, 2013 (photo credit: Yonatan Sindel/Flash90)

Thousands of Israelis failed in their attempts to obtain gas masks on Wednesday as growing numbers of citizens flooded post offices and IDF Home Front Command distribution centers ahead of an expected US strike on Syria.

Meanwhile, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and the IDF asked Israelis to remain calm.

“There is no reason to change our routine,” Netanyahu said in a statement Wednesday afternoon after holding a security assessment on the Syrian situation at IDF headquarters in Tel Aviv. “We are preparing for every eventuality. The IDF is ready to defend against any threat and to respond with force to any attempt to harm Israel’s citizens,” Netanyahu added.

The IDF Spokesperson’s Unit offered much the same message. In a statement Wednesday, it called on the public to remain calm and, “despite the possible American strike in Syria,” insisted “there is no reason to change our routine. Any change in [the army’s] instructions will be posted as necessary, and will be brought to the attention of every citizen using the broadest possible distribution methods.”

While officials remained adamant any attack on Israel was unlikely, the IDF did deploy an additional Iron Dome battery in the north, and was said to be readying the Arrow short-range rocket defense system for use on the northern front.

Many of those who tried to obtain gas masks reported waiting times that reached several hours.

“It’s crazy what’s happening. There are women, babies, police, it’s a mess here,” one man told Israel Radio at a distribution center in Haifa. “They’re sending people into a panic, but there’s only one center in the entire north of the country. People came from Nahariya,” roughly an hour away.

The situation was no better in the south. The IDF distribution centers in Beersheba were closed Wednesday, with the Home Front Command asking citizens to turn to post offices, which are responsible for distribution, for their gas mask kits.

But an Israel Radio reporter who went to a post office in Beersheba was told there were no more masks, and that he should travel to Ashdod, a city over an hour’s drive away, to obtain a kit.

The national telephone hotline for gas mask distribution, at emergency phone number 104, saw waiting times of over 40 minutes on Wednesday afternoon. The Postal Service promised to increase the staff at the hotline.

Cause for concern? The recent tension along the northern border has caused a spike in demand for gas masks (photo credit: Yonatan Sindel/Flash90)

The recent tension along the northern border has caused a spike in demand for gas masks. (photo credit: Yonatan Sindel/Flash90)

Home Front Defense Minister Gilad Erdan was conducting an assessment of the situation.

MK Eli Yishai (Shas), chair of the Knesset Subcommittee for Home Front Preparedness, suggested Wednesday that the difficulties in gas mask distribution might reflect other problems in preparedness for possible attacks on the Israeli home front.

“The Israeli factories producing gas mask kits will be closed by October 2014 because of the Finance Ministry,” he charged, referring to planned cuts to the home front preparedness budget.

Yishai noted that the government had spent some NIS 200 million ($55 million) annually on the home front, but said Israel “must spend NIS 350 million to reach maximum preparedness.”

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The Postal Service has published an English-language informational website about gas mask kits and how they can be obtained, as well as a dedicated Hebrew-language page with a constantly updating list of distribution center schedules and locations.

As the schedules can change, the Home Front Command has recommended calling 104 to confirm that a distribution center is open and operational before arriving.

The Postal Service also runs a nationwide home delivery service for gas masks that carries a fee of NIS 25-40 per household. It can be reached at *2237 or 03-713-3830.

In Jerusalem, the distribution center is at the Shmuel HaNavi Community Center located at Magen HaElef 3. It is open Sunday-Thursday, 11 a.m. to 7 p.m., until September 3.

In Haifa, the center is at Hanevi’im 22, above the post office. The distribution center will remain open Sunday-Thursday, 8 a.m. to 3 p.m.

In Maaleh Adumim, the center is at Adumim Mall, at the entrance level inside Shalom Gate. It is open Sunday-Thursday, 11 a.m. to 7 p.m., through August 29.

In Beit Shemesh, at BIG FASHION Mall, Yigal Alon 3. Open Sunday-Thursday, 11 a.m. to 7 p.m., through August 29.

In Tel Aviv, at the Beit Hamiyun Post Office, Derech HaHagana 137. It is open Sunday-Thursday, 8 a.m. to 3 p.m., until September 3.

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US Air Force beefs up strength in Qatar. Syrian troops, warplanes, tanks and artillery moved to sheltered sites

August 28, 2013

US Air Force beefs up strength in Qatar. Syrian troops, warplanes, tanks and artillery moved to sheltered sites.

DEBKAfile Special Report August 28, 2013, 1:31 PM (IDT)

US B-1 strategic bombers

US B-1 strategic bombers

Wednesday, Aug. 28, the US, on the one hand, and Syria, on the other, were winding up their last military preparations ahead of an American operation against Syria,. Barring last-minute hold-ups, debkafile’s military sources report the operation is scheduled to start Friday night Aug. 30 (edging into Saturday morning, according to local Mid East time.)
In the past 24 hours, the US Air Force finished a major buildup at the big US Al Udeid Air Base in Qatar. B-1B bombers and F-22 Raptor stealth fighter jets were brought over from other US Mid East air facilities on the Omani island of Masirah and Diego Garcia in the Indian Ocean.
These squadrons were not assigned to the US military strike against Syria, say our military sources, but will stand ready to move in should unforeseen complications in the course of the US missile assault on Syria call for the introduction of extra assets from outside.

Israeli officials and spokesmen continued to insist Wednesday on low expectations of a Syrian counter-offensive against their country. Nevertheless, the new US air force reinforcements in Qatar will stand ready to rush to the aid of US allies – Israel, Jordan and Turkey – in the event of their coming under Syrian Scud attack.
On the opposite side, the Syrian army Tuesday started scattering personnel, weapons and air assets to safe places to reduce their exposure to damage and losses from US assaults.

Our military sources report that personnel, tanks and artillery of the Syrian Army’s 4th and Republican Guard Divisions, which are held responsible for the Aug. 21 chemical attack on civilians, were being moved into fortified shelters built last year against potential foreign military intervention.

Syrian army command centers in Homs, Hama, Latakia and the Aleppo region were also being split up and dispersed, after a tip-off to Syrian and Russian intelligence that they would be targeted by the US strike.
Syria has also transferred its Air Force fighter planes, bombers and attack helicopters to fortified shelters which are armored against missile and air attack.
In Israel, the IDF continued Wednesday to deploy its anti-missile Arrow, Patriot and Iron Dome systems more widely than ever before across the country. Iron Dome batteries were positioned in the heavily populated central region around Greater Tel Aviv.

debkafile’s military sources reported that Israel’s Arrow and Patriot interceptors were linked to the US missile shield, with which their operation has been synchronized.

Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu said Tuesday that Israel was ready for any scenario. Although it takes no part in the Syrian civil war crisis, Israel would not hesitate to fight back for any attempted attacks – and would do so forcefully.

Wednesday morning, the machinery for distributing gas masks to the population broke down under the pressure of demands to distribution centers across the country. The Homeland Ministry’s website crashed. Former Interior Minister Ellie Yishay complained of a shortage of protective masks due to budget cuts. He said there are only enough to supply 40 percent of the population.

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It’s the final countdown

August 28, 2013

It’s the final countdown | The Times of Israel.

With military intervention in Syria supposedly all but confirmed, papers opine over where, when, how, who and why the US will strike

By Joshua Davidovich August 28, 2013, 1:26 pm

Europe singing The Final Countdown. (Screenshot: YouTube)

Europe singing The Final Countdown. (Screenshot: YouTube)

Tuesday’s saber rattling hits a fever pitch in Wednesday’s papers, as the media gears up for a presupposed military strike on Syria and whatever may come after that — like children on Christmas morning who just can’t wait to open their new gas masks.

Tabloids Yedioth Ahronoth and Israel Hayom run identical “countdown” headlines, summing up the waiting game in one succinct word (two in Hebrew). There’s nothing new in the news that news consumers couldn’t have consumed the night before on any news website (ahem ahem), but boy do the talking heads have a lot to talk about, even though there’s pretty much nothing new to say that wasn’t said the day before.

Take Yedioth’s Nahum Barnea, who earns his paycheck by writing that Obama has to give Assad a nice wallop on the tush, but the White House must decide exactly how they will do that before launching a war, which he makes seem like Obama is deciding whether to get a side order of French fries or a toy with his happy meal:

“On Obama’s table are laid a series of military actions that he needs to choose between. The question is what he’s being asked to carry out. From the light to the heavy: A show of force, a punishment, a warning, a dramatic signal, the toppling of the regime. His choice will determine the number of Tomahawk missiles that will be fired, or the number of shells to be shot, or the number of targets that will be hit and their quality.… The world is not expecting a continuing operation, and definitely not something that will influence the outcome of the civil war. But the expectation for action is so wide, and so surefooted, that it’s turned an American abstention into a near non-option.”

The paper also features a guest column by Caspian Makan, the boyfriend of slain Iranian activist Neda Agha-Soltan, who tries to figure out why, after 100,000 deaths and years of war, the US has decided now is the time to get involved. “The lack of international response by the international community until now possibly is for two reasons,” he writes, translated here from the Hebrew which was likely translated from English or Farsi. “The first stems from the fact that according to international norms, the Syrian regime has a right to act against the opposition during a civil war. If the international community was going to respond to Assad’s dastardly policies, they could have stopped the murder of masses and fleeing of millions of Syrian civilians. The second reason has to do with Syria’s partners — Iran, China and Russia. Russia is known as someone who opposes the US in any international issue. China’s role is unknown, and thus Iran comes out the big winner.”

Papers note that the IDF does not expect Assad to hit Israel in retaliation, but Maariv leads off with the puffed chest of both countries’ military machines, with Syria threatening to unleash its fury on Tel Aviv and Israel threatening to hit Syria hard if it detects any attempt at an attack.

The paper reports on the rush for gas masks which has become a more than yearly tradition, but writes that some 40 percent of the population is not prepared with gas masks and won’t be before any American action. “Whoever is responsible for the home front in the Defense Ministry and didn’t take care of the gas mask project and its budget — has failed and hurt Israel’s readiness,” the paper quotes a chorus of “security sources” saying.

Despite the bluster coming from the brass, Israel still wants to stay out of Syria, while also watching Assad go down (and maybe see him be replaced with a nice Zionist puppet government, and a nice slice of honey cake, why not).

Israel Hayom’s Yoav Limor notes the tension in the buildup to a strike and the conflicting feelings over the US putting its skin in the game.

“At times like this the gut cries out for Assad to pay the price for his crimes, and the head cautions over his removal. In the interim, a lot of coolness and cold logic will be required so that the estimations will become reality and Israel will continue to stay outside Syria’s bloody battlefield,” he writes.

Haaretz features an interview with a resident of Damascus whose feelings on an American strike are less than mixed. “The world hears about us when there is a chemical attack but every day there are mortars and deaths,” Mohammad, a rebel in the outskirts of the capital, tells the paper. “This situation has gone on for over a year and the resident are fighting for their freedom, and every time anew waiting for the world to wake up.”

Mohammad won’t have to wait long, according to the paper’s Amos Harel, who writes in an analysis that a strike is on its way (yes, that’s his groundbreaking central thesis). Yet Mohammed will likely be disappointed with Harel’s estimation that the US won’t stay in long enough to actually fell Assad: “Most likely, the US will do the bare minimum and attack but then swiftly disengage. Such an approach dictates a particular set of targets: Not symbols of the regime but strictly military targets such as missile bases, anti-aircraft batteries and perhaps chemical weapons sites.… Assad, it seems, would be able to withstand such an attack and remain on his feet. It wouldn’t stop him from continuing his onslaught on the rebel forces, who are currently preoccupied by infighting.”

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