WarSclerotic

BBC News – Syria: Parliament recalled to discuss UK’s response.

The UK Parliament is to be recalled on Thursday to discuss possible responses to a suspected chemical weapons attack in Syria.

David Cameron said MPs would vote on a “clear motion”, amid calls for action against the country’s government.

The UK is considering military options following last week’s suspected attack, which is being investigated by the UN.

The Syrian government said it was not responsible and the US and others were using it as an excuse to attack it.

The US has said there is “clear” evidence that President Bashar al-Assad’s government was behind last week’s attack on the outskirts of Damascus but Russia, a key ally of Syria, has questioned this.

Inspections

US Defence Secretary Chuck Hagel has said US forces are “ready to go” if given the order by US President Barack Obama but the facts of what happened need to be fully established before any decisions are taken.

The Syrian authorities have blamed opposition fighters, with whom they have been involved in a civil war for more than two years.

UN weapons inspectors examined the scene of one of the alleged attacks on Monday but have delayed a second trip to rebel-held suburbs of Damascus after an attack on their convoy.

After cutting short his holiday to deal with the crisis, the prime minister announced that the House of Commons Speaker, John Bercow, had granted his request for Parliament to be recalled from its summer recess four days early.

Mr Cameron wrote on Twitter: “Speaker agrees my request to recall Parliament on Thurs. There’ll be a clear Govt motion & vote on UK response to chemical weapons attacks.”

Mr Cameron has been holding meetings with senior colleagues, including his deputy Nick Clegg and Foreign Secretary William Hague, ahead of a meeting of the National Security Council on Wednesday.

Downing Street has said discussions are continuing with international allies on what to do next and that no decision has been taken on any response. However, the armed forces are drawing up contingency military plans.

It is understood the most likely military response to Wednesday’s suspected chemical weapons attack would be a one-off or limited guided missile strikes on Syrian military targets fired from US Navy warships.

The UK has said any military response would be “proportionate” and lawful – designed to “deter” the use of chemical weapons.

Syrian foreign minister Walid Mualllem said no country in the world would use “a weapon of ultimate destruction against its own people”

Thursday’s Commons vote on the issue would not be legally binding but No 10 sources said the prime minister would listen to the will of Parliament amid concerns from MPs from all parties about the consequences of military intervention.

Although the Commons voted on UK military intervention in Iraq in 2003 and Libya in 2011, Mr Cameron has the final say on deploying troops in conflicts, using Royal Prerogative powers.

Conservative MP Richard Ottaway told the BBC that many MPs felt they had been “misled” about the reasons for going to war in Iraq in 2003 and needed greater certainty this time around.

He urged ministers to make any intelligence about the chemical attacks available to members of Parliament’s Intelligence and Security Committee – which meets in private.

And former Labour Foreign Secretary Jack Straw said Iraq had “raised the bar of scepticism” about the justification for military action and Mr Cameron would have to present a “strong case” for the Assad government’s culpability.

Moscow has warned any foreign intervention in Syria without a UN mandate would be “a grave violation of international law”.

The UN Security Council is made up of 15 states, including five permanent members – China, Russia, France, the US and the UK – who have the power to veto any resolution.

The Obama administration is reportedly studying the Nato-led military campaign against the Federal Republic of Yugoslavia in 1999 as a potential precedent for intervention without a specific UN mandate.

The US and UK supported more than 70 days of air strikes against the regime of Slobodan Milosevic – in the face of Russian opposition – to protect civilians from further attacks in Kosovo.

But Syria’s foreign minister, Walim Moualem, said the US and its allies were using the alleged chemical attack as a pretext to intervene in the bitter conflict in the country and any “act of aggression” would strengthen the hand of radical elements linked to al-Qaeda.

Assad may hit back at Israel for US strike, trusting Obama to tie Israel
DEBKAfile Exclusive Report August 27, 2013, 3:24 PM (IDT)

Saudi Air Force F-15

There is little logic in the Netanyahu government’s public assurances that the Syrian ruler Bashar Assad would not risk a major showdown with Israel for fear of an IDF response powerful enough to overthrow his regime.

This argument fails to take into account the calculus in Washington: President Barack Obama would not countenance, at least in the initial stage, an Israeli military strike on a scale greater than the limited operation he is contemplating for his own armed forces in the wake of the Syrian government’s chemical weapons attack on Damascus last Wednesday, Aug. 21.  Israel would therefore not be allowed to endanger Assad’s rule.

Assad’s Russian advisers are no doubt briefing him on this Israel-Syrian equation.
According to debkafile’s military sources, Israeli strategists prefer to believe that Syria will choose Jordan for a conventional missile strike in reprisal for a US attack – rather than go for Israel.

This assumption was refuted by the words of Syrian Foreign Minister Walid Moallem Tuesday, Aug. 27, at a press conference he held in response to US allegations of his government’s responsibility for using chemical weapons in East Damascus.

Accusing the US Secretary of State John Kelly of telling lies and fabricating evidence against his government, Moallem insisted it had not used chemical weapons or delayed permission for the UN team to launch its investigation under guaranteed security in government-controlled sites. That team only arrived Saturday, Aug. 23, and was not ready for its mission before Monday, Moallem insisted.

He went on to question US objectives in seeking to attack Syria, and answered his own question by saying: “Anything that happens in this area is in Israel’s interest. Such aggression will first of all benefit Israel, secondly, the military efforts of Al Nusra, al Qaeda’s armed group in Syria. “So the Americans would be serving Israel first and Al Qaeda second.”

As for Jordan, Moallem stressed Syria’s friendly and neighborly ties with the Hashemite kingdom. “We have no thought of acting against Jordan,” he said, and advised Amman not to let itself be persuaded to give up its friendship with Damascus.

debkafile’s military sources add: Washington may avoid the need to punish Syria for a potential attack on Jordan by harnessing the Saudi Air Force. In response to a joint US-Amman invitation, Saudi warplanes could cross through Hashemite airspace and blast targets in Syria. They would use intelligence input and coordination support from US air commands.

The Saudi air base at Tabuk near the Jordanian border was reported Tuesday to have placed its F-15 squadrons on the ready. A French squadron of Rafale bombers is also based at Tabuk.

The situation could take a different turn if Syria targeted the US forces deployed in Jordan.

For all these reasons, Israel is more likely than Jordan to be first in line for Syrian payback for a US attack. IDF commanders are well aware of this danger and are gearing up for the challenge. Part of their planning may be to stage the first Israel-Syrian military confrontation in Jordan and over its skies and not just in Israel.

That Israel is under explicit threat was made amply clear in statements coming Tuesday from Syria, Hizballah, Iran and implicitly, Russia. When Moallem said Tuesday that Syria would defend itself in the case of a US strike “using all available means,” he felt safe in including Syrian allies in this category.
Those allies are evidently resolved not to stand by idly if Syria is attacked.

The nature of their promised assistance to Bashar Assad was no doubt conveyed to Barack Obama’s intermediaries, UN Deputy Secretary Jeffrey Feltman and Oman’s Sultan Qaboos, Monday, when they met Iran’s Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and President Hassan Rouhani Monday, to promote the US president’s bid for an understanding on Syria – as reported exclusively by debkafile.  

So the US president must by now know how many players will jump in and where, in consequence of an American attack on Syria. This means that Washington may find it impossible to keep the operation within the predetermined confines desired by the US president.
Jerusalem as well as Washington realizes how widely the fallout may spread, but Israeli leaders are keeping this prospect under their hats to avoid public panic

U.N. Inspectors Delay Second Visit to Sites in Syria – NYTimes.com.

( I’m assuming they are not spending tonight in Syria.  Draw your own conclusions… – JW )

By ALAN COWELL and STEVEN ERLANGER

The delay came as the United States hardened its language in condemnation of the Syrian government and Prime Minister David Cameron of Britain said Parliament would be recalled from its summer recess as the British military drew up contingency plans for action in response to the claimed attack.

British fighter aircraft were also reported to have been sent to Cyprus, a likely launching pad for any nonmissile strike.

On the ground in Syria, United Nations inspectors, who came under sniper fire on Monday before a visit to one location, had been set “to continue their investigation in a different site” on Tuesday, the United Nations said in a statement. But after the attack on Monday, “a comprehensive assessment determined that the visit should be postponed by one day in order to improve preparedness and safety for the team.” The statement said the inspectors had not received “confirmation of access.”

Syria’s foreign minister, Walid al-Moallem, said that the inspectors’ trip had been delayed by one day because of disputes among the rebel groups seeking the overthrow of President Bashar al-Assad. The minister said the insurgents could not agree on issues related to guaranteeing the inspectors’ safety. He gave no further details.

The postponement coincided with intensified international diplomacy and maneuvering.

In a message on Twitter, Mr. Cameron said the speaker of Parliament had agreed to his request to recall lawmakers on Thursday, when there would be a “clear” proposal from the government and a vote on how Britain should respond to the attacks.

The recall was apparently designed to secure parliamentary support for action and to head off complaints by lawmakers that they had been sidelined.

Earlier, Mr. Cameron’s spokesman said, “We are continuing to discuss with our international partners what the right response should be, but, as part of this, we are making contingency plans for the armed forces.”

British officials, who were not identified by name under departmental rules, told reporters that Mr. Cameron would meanwhile continue discussions with world leaders on what was termed a “proportionate response” to deter attacks in the future using chemical weapons.

Mr. Cameron cut short a vacation and returned to London on Tuesday to lead a meeting of Britain’s national security committee scheduled for Wednesday.

His support of the United States recalled earlier moments of crisis under his government and that of his predecessor, Tony Blair, when Britain projected itself as playing a decisive role in far-flung crises at America’s side, even though the United States wields far greater military clout.

Britain seems anxious to maintain the impetus of efforts to devise a tough response to the attack, which Mr. Cameron’s office, like Washington and Paris, has attributed to Mr. Assad’s forces.

The Press Association of Britain quoted officials as indicating that a decision on the nature of any military response could be taken before the United Nations inspectors report on their findings.

In Washington, using some of the most aggressive language used yet by the Obama administration, Secretary of State John Kerry on Monday accused the Syrian government of the “indiscriminate slaughter of civilians” and of cynical efforts to cover up its responsibility for a “cowardly crime.”

Syria has blamed rebel forces for the use of chemical weapons, denying that government troops were responsible.

The issue has deepened the divide between the United States and Russia, Syria’s main international ally and sponsor.

According to Agence France-Presse, Moscow warned on Tuesday that a military intervention in Syria could have “catastrophic consequences” for the region and called on the international community to show “prudence” over the crisis.

“Attempts to bypass the Security Council, once again to create artificial groundless excuses for a military intervention in the region, are fraught with new suffering in Syria and catastrophic consequences for other countries of the Middle East and North Africa,” the foreign ministry in Moscow said.

U.S. military “ready” to attack Syria, Hagel says – CBS News.

Defense Secretary Chuck Hagel reviews Indonesian honor guards prior to a bilateral meeting at the Defense Ministry in Jakarta, Aug. 26, 2013. / Getty

© 2013 CBS Interactive Inc. All Rights Reserved. This material may not be published, broadcast, rewritten, or redistributed. The Associated Press contributed to this report.

Israel Hayom | No easy day in Syria.

Israel Hayom | Report: UK gathering warplanes in Cyprus.

Israel Hayom | Israel readies homefront for possible Syrian attack.

Israel Hayom | Gas masks are not the issue.

‘Foreign intervention is the only option on Syria’ | The Times of Israel.

Arab columnists urge the West to strike Assad before it’s too late

By Elhanan Miller August 27, 2013, 1:56 pm

In this photo taken on a government organized media tour, Syrian army soldiers are seen deployed in the Jobar neighborhood of Damascus, Syria, Saturday, Aug. 24, 2013 (photo credit: AP)

The looming prospect of an American attack against Syria continues to lead headlines in the Arab press, which highlights the Russian opposition to such a strike.

“The beginnings of an international coalition against Assad, and Russia ‘will never fight,’” reads the headline of London-based daily Al-Hayat, featuring a photo of a UN chemical weapons expert collecting samples in the Damascus suburb of Ma’adhamiyat A-Sham.

“Washington: We will retaliate against Assad, and the opposition warns of a ‘strike that will not topple him,’” reads the headline of the Saudi-owned daily A-Sharq Al-Awsat, which also features photos of UN experts on mission.

The paper quotes “knowledgeable Turkish sources” as saying that highly important meetings are taking place at the Izmir base, which will likely serve as the headquarters of the expected strike.

A-Sharq Al-Awsat also quotes Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov warning the West against an attack, but adding that Russia would not intervene, on either side.

But the editorial of London-based daily Al-Quds Al-Arabi on Tuesday asserts that Russia is unlikely to sit idly by while its regional ally is attacked.

“It is certain that Russia will not remain on the sidelines amid a strike on the Assad regime. Although the Russian options for responding are unclear, it is unlikely that it will respond militarily. Moscow is likely to react by breaking the campaign against Iran and removing itself from the economic sanctions imposed on Iran due to its nuclear program,” reads the editorial.

“The question today is, do President Assad and his allies in Tehran, Moscow, and the Dahiyeh in Beirut still hope to end the Syrian revolution? Do they expect the people to forget this death, destruction and displacement? The definite answer is that there is no hope of that. But the solution remains in Assad’s hands, through negotiating a solution that will lead to him stepping down and stopping the chain of death and destruction.”

Foreign intervention, claims Al-Hayat columnist Hazem Saghieh, remains the only viable way to end the bloodshed in Syria.

“Despite all reservations, intervention is today the only means of ending the accelerated implosion of the region, not the implosion of Syria alone. Given the inability of both sides to reach a decisive outcome… there are no alternatives left but foreign intervention,” writes Saghieh. “Nothing is worse than the current state of affairs and what it may lead to in Syria, but also in Lebanon, Iraq, Jordan and possibly Turkey as well.

“Intervention, paving the way to deposing the Assad regime, will allow — even if only in principle — for the beginning of a historic reconciliation between the Arab Levant and the West in general.”

Did Assad back down by letting UN observers into the affected areas? Certainly not, writes A-Sharq Al-Awsat columnist Tareq Homayed.

“Assad’s acquiescence to the entry of international observers is nothing but a new maneuver and lie, designed to ease the international pressure and allow Russia to procrastinate in the hope of thwarting the expected international intervention. The West must realize that Assad understands only the language of force, which demands not limited military intervention but military intervention that will leave Syria different than it was before, and the entire region as well.”

Israel, writes columnist Hilmi Moussa in the Lebanese daily A-Safeer, seems to have donned military uniform since the American change of tone on Syria.

“Today, Israel is more interested than at any time in the past in American military action,” he writes. “It would like this action not to be limited to Syria, but… to reach Iran.”

Emergency forces launch two-day drill in the Golan | The Times of Israel.

IDF says timing of training not related to events in Syria

Illustrative photo of Israeli security and medical forces during an exercise simulating a terror attack (photo credit: Olivier Fitoussi/Flash90)

Security and rescue forces launched a two-day exercise in the Golan Heights on Tuesday. Residents were warned to expect increased movement of emergency forces and military vehicles in the area as well as the sound of gunfire and explosives.

The IDF emphasized that the exercise was a component of its annual cycle of training programs, designed to “maintain competence and readiness of emergency services,” and not related to current events in neighboring Syria.