WarSclerotic

AMMAN/DOHA – Saudi Arabia has offered Russia economic incentives including a major arms deal and a pledge not to challenge Russian gas sales if Moscow scales back support for Syrian President Bashar Assad, Middle East sources and Western diplomats said on Wednesday.

The proposed deal between two of the leading power brokers in Syria’s devastating civil war was set out by Saudi intelligence chief Prince Bandar bin Sultan at a meeting with Russian President Vladimir Putin in Moscow last week, they said.

Russia has supported Assad with arms and diplomatic cover throughout the war and any change in Moscow’s stance would remove a major obstacle to action on Syria by the United Nations Security Council.

Syrian opposition sources close to Saudi Arabia said Prince Bandar offered to buy up to $15 billion of Russian weapons as well as ensuring that Gulf gas would not threaten Russia’s position as a main gas supplier to Europe.

In return, Saudi Arabia wanted Moscow to ease its strong support of Assad and agree not to block any future Security Council Resolution on Syria, they said.

A Gulf source familiar with the matter confirmed that Prince Bandar offered to buy large quantities of arms from Russia, but that no cash amount was specified in the talks.

One Lebanese politician close to Saudi Arabia said the meeting between Bandar and Putin lasted four hours. “The Saudis were elated about the outcome of the meeting,” said the source, without elaborating.

Putin’s spokesman, Dmitry Peskov, could not immediately be reached on Wednesday for comment about the meeting. A Saudi Foreign Ministry official was also not immediately available to respond.

Putin’s initial response to Bandar’s offer was inconclusive, diplomats say. One Western diplomat in the Middle East said the Russian leader was unlikely to trade Moscow’s recent high profile in the region for an arms deal, however substantial.

He said Russian officials also appeared skeptical that Saudi Arabia had a clear plan for stability in Syria if Assad fell.

CHEMICAL WEAPONS

However, in a possible sign of greater flexibility by Moscow, other diplomats said that in the run-up to the meeting Russia put pressure on Assad to allow in a UN mission to investigate the suspected use of chemical weapons.

The UN team is expected to visit Syria next week.

“This was one of those unannounced meetings that could prove much more important than the public diplomatic efforts being made on Syria,” one diplomat said.

A senior Syrian opposition figure said there had been a “build-up of Russian-Saudi contacts prior to the meeting”.

“Bandar sought to allay two main Russian fears: that Islamist extremists will replace Assad, and that Syria would become a conduit for Gulf, mainly Qatari, gas at the expense of Russia,” he said. “Bandar offered to intensify energy, military and economic cooperation with Moscow.”

Saudi Arabia and other Sunni Muslim powers have been strong supporters of the mainly Sunni rebels battling Assad, from Syria’s minority Alawite sect, an offshoot of Shi’ite Islam. The rebels have been joined by foreign Sunni jihadis.

Assad has enjoyed military support from Iran and fighters from Hezbollah and Iraqi Shi’ites.

Russia has maintained military sales to Syria throughout the two year conflict in which 100,000 people have been killed, and helped block three UN draft resolutions criticizing Assad’s crackdown on the mainly peaceful protests against him in 2011.

The Security Council has been considering a possible resolution on aid for Syria for several months and a shift in position by Moscow could alleviate this.

Ruslan Pukhov, director of the Moscow-based defence think tank CAST, said he had no direct knowledge of the offer, but he would not be surprised if a contract to supply Saudi Arabia with 150 Russian T-90 tanks were revived.

“There was an order of T-90s that was stopped for mysterious reasons, and if this is a resurrection of that order then we could suspect that the Saudis want something in return and that something could be linked to Syria,” said Pukhov, who is close to Russia’s Defense Ministry.

“If the Saudis want Moscow to outright drop Assad, they will refuse the deal, but they may have a more nuanced position, which they could possibly agree to.”

Russia and Saudi Arabia penned an arms contract in 2008 for 150 T-90s as well as more than 100 Mi-17 and Mi-35 attack helicopters as well as BMP-3 infantry fighting vehicles, but the contract has stalled for years.

Russian newspaper Kommersant reported at the time that the contract was concluded to persuade Moscow to curtail its ties with Iran, though the Kremlin denied that report.

Gen. Martin Dempsey, chairman of the US Joint Chiefs of Staff, will arrive in Israel next week for a series of important security talks with IDF Chief of Staff Lt.-Gen. Benny Gantz and Israeli leaders.

The precise nature of the talks with Dempsey is unknown, but a number of top-priority issues can be expected to dominate the discussions.

First on the agenda will almost certainly be Iran, which is continuing to make progress in its nuclear program, irrespective of the election of a new president.

Israel is concerned that the international community may be taking its eye off the Iranian nuclear ball, due to the moderate image of President Hassan Rouhani, described by Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu as a wolf in sheep’s clothing, and because of the ongoing regional turmoil acting as a distraction.

Netanyahu has signaled that Israel’s patience is running out, telling CBS last month that Jerusalem will “not wait until it’s too late” to take military action if need be to curb Tehran’s nuclear ambitions.

Iran installed thousands of new-generation centrifuges for uranium enrichment at its facilities in Natanz and Fordow, and, according to the IAEA, has amassed 190 kilograms of medium-enriched uranium, edging dangerously close to Netanyahu’s red line of 250 kilograms of enriched uranium.

Additionally, Iran is making good progress on its alternative route to nuclear weapons, plutonium, via its heavy water reactor in Arak.

The Wall Street Journal quoted American and European officials based at the IAEA’s headquarters in Vienna on Monday as noting with surprise the remarkable progress made by Iran at Arak. The officials said that when the work is complete, Arak could be used to produce two nuclear bombs a year, with the first bomb complete by next summer.

Dempsey might use the visit to gauge Israeli intentions, and possibly to try and convince Israel to refrain from dramatic decisions in the near future, in order to give diplomacy with Rouhani a chance.

The issue of Syria will likely form the second item on the agenda.

Israel is closely monitoring developments north of the border, where thousands of foreign fighters have joined the ranks of al-Qaida-affiliated Syrian rebel groups fighting with other rebels to topple Syrian President Bashar Assad. Israel’s policy on Syria for the time being remains limited to the prevention of the proliferation of strategic weapons from Syria to Hezbollah.

Dempsey has been crystal clear on his opposition to US involvement in Syria, arguing that it could empower radicals further, and risk the security of chemical weapons in the Assad regime’s possession, while dragging Washington into a regional conflict with unknown consequences.

His feelings on reports of alleged Israeli low signature strikes to prevent the transfer of Iranian and Russian arms to Hezbollah are unknown, though it is reasonable to expect that he will use the visit to continue close coordination between the IDF and the US military on Syria.

Both Israel and the US seem to agree that containing the conflict with minimum intervention is the best policy for the time being. But Israel may not be able to stick to such a policy in the event of Assad’s fall, due to the need to secure or destroy dangerous chemical arms and prevent jihadi elements from taking control of them.

The military chiefs can also be expected to discuss the situation in Egypt, where the army has ejected the Muslim Brotherhood from power, but is struggling to stabilize the country.

The jihadi terrorist bases in the Sinai Peninsula form an ongoing regional security threat, and the radicals are intent on attacking the Egyptian military in Sinai and launching cross-border attacks on Israel, in a bid to undermine the Egyptian-Israeli peace treaty.

Hezbollah’s heavy-handed intervention in Syria, and its increasingly tenuous position in Lebanon should also feature in the discussions.

Alongside these issues, close Israeli-US cooperation on missile defense, as exemplified by the 2012 joint air defense exercise held in Israel (named Austere Challenge 12 – the largest drill of its kind), will probably be discussed.

World pressure kept Iran from gaining nuclear weapons in the past, and is preventing it from crossing the nuclear threshold now, Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu said Tuesday in response to Iranian President Hassan Rouhani’s comment that threats against Iran do not work.

The US State Department also responded to Rouhani’s remarks, stating that they seek to see “credible steps taken” to address their concerns that a nuclear program that Tehran says is purely for peaceful needs is actually an effort to build a nuclear bomb.

“Iran’s president said that pressure won’t work. Not true,” Netanyahu said during a meeting with 36 Democratic US Congressman in his office. “The only thing that has worked in the last two decades is pressure. And the only thing that will work now is increased pressure,” he said.

He added that it was “important to understand” that if the pressure on the Islamic Republic was relaxed “they will go all the way.” In a certain sense, Netanyahu was preaching to the converted since the House voted last week – on the eve of Rouhani’s inauguration on Sunday – to increase US sanctions on Iran, targeting what remains of its oil sector.

Netanyahu’s comments came just after Rouhani gave his first press conference since taking office on Sunday, saying he was “seriously determined” to resolve a dispute with the West over Teheran’s nuclear program and was ready to enter “serious and substantive” negotiations on the issue.

But, he said, the other side should realize a solution could be reached “solely through talks, not threats”. He said he was confident the concerns of both sides could be removed in a short time.

Meanwhile, the State Department said on Tuesday that the inauguration of Iranian President Hassan Rouhani is a chance for that country to move quickly to resolve concerns about its nuclear program, but the United States wants to see actions from Tehran.

The inauguration of Rouhani, who took his oath on Sunday, “presents an opportunity for Iran to act quickly to resolve the international community’s deep concerns over their nuclear program,” said State Department spokeswoman Jen Psaki.

She added, however, “there are steps they need to take to meet their international obligations and find a peaceful solution to this issue, and the ball is in their court.”

Psaki said, “we want to see credible steps taken” to address concerns that a nuclear program that Tehran says is purely for peaceful needs is actually an effort to build a nuclear bomb.

The United States has said it would be a “willing partner” if Iran was serious about finding a peaceful solution to the issue.

Rouhani, however, turned that equation around, and said that if Washington demonstrated goodwill towards Iran and an atmosphere of mutual respect was created, the way was open for talks to remove the concerns of both sides.

Netanyahu has consistently warned since Rouhani’s election in June that the world should not be “taken in” by his perceived “moderation” and let the new Iranian president draw out negotiations as a stalling tactic, all the while continuing full-speed ahead on the nuclear program.

The congressmen who met with Netanyahu are here on a one-week tour sponsored by the American Israel Education Foundation, a charitable organization affiliated with the American Israel Public Affairs Committee. The group, which includes 31 freshman representatives, is led by Democratic Whip Steny Hoyer (D-Maryland). One government official said Iran has already, since Rouhani’s election, upgraded its centrifuge capabilities, both by adding “thousands of new centrifuges” and introducing more advanced centrifuges that allows them to dramatically “accelerate their enrichment process.”

In recent weeks, the official said, the Iranians have “improved their centrifuges both quantitatively and qualitatively.” Alongside efforts to create the material for a bomb through uranium enrichment, Iran was at the same time also working at its Arak heavy water plant on a parallel path to build a bomb based on plutonium.

“They are determined to get a bomb one way or another,” he said, adding that the world needed to be equally determined to prevent them from doing so.

Defense Secretary Chuck Hagel, meanwhile, met with Azerbaijan’s Defense Minister Safar Abiyev on Monday, telling him that Iran, Azerbaijan’s southern neighbor, was running out of time to resolve concerns over its nuclear program diplomatically.

Officials said Hagel, in concert with his counterparts at the State Department and the White House, expected “quick” and meaningful overtures from the Rouhani government.

“Secretary Hagel made clear to the Azerbaijanis that when it comes to Iran ending its nuclear ambitions, time is of the essence,” a US official said. “The Iranian election provides an opportunity for further dialogue, but the international community is not going to wait around forever to see concrete steps.” A senior US official, meanwhile, was quoted on Israel Radio Tuesday as casting doubts on US intentions to keep Iran from acquiring nuclear arms.

American conduct regarding Syria, contrary to declarations by US President Barack Obama, showed Israel that it could not rely on US assurances, the source was quoted as saying. .

According to the source, Israel was capable of carrying out a unilateral military strike against Iran’s nuclear facilities without operational support from the United States. He acknowledged, however that such a strike would be less effective than one conducted by the US.

Sources in the Prime Minister’s Office denied that this sentiment mirrored government’s position, saying it reflected only the opinion of the source quoted.

Michael Wilner in Washington, Jerusalem Post Staff and Reuters contributed to this report.

“We will upgrade the weapons of these new submarines,” a source in the Israel Navy stated, as the military prepares to receive two more advanced submarines In 2014, the INS Tanin – Israel’s fourth German-made Dolphin-class submarine – will enter the navy’s service.

A few months later, the INS Rahav will join the fleet. The sixth new generation Dolphin is still being manufactured at a German shipyard.

The navy has been working with Israeli defense companies to develop a range of sea and underwater combat technologies, from radars to electronic warfare capabilities.

Despite budget cuts, the IDF is in the midst of a multi-year force buildup process, and the navy is going through an unprecedented phase marked by weapons upgrades, the source said.

“People are staying up late into the night around here, because a lot of new technology is being introduced,” he said.

Innovations include a new long-range air defense system that is being installed on missile ships this year.

“From now on we’ll have the ability of destroying incoming threats dozens of kilometers away. It won’t be like before, when we were without independent air defenses. We won’t have to trouble the air force,” the source said.

Coastal electronic sensors that feed data to navy regional command and control centers are also being improved. Engineers from the navy’s Weapons Systems Department – some of them former sailors with operational experience – are managing the armament projects.

The navy prefers to purchase existing defense products and tailor them according to needs, the source said.

But if this is not possible, the navy works with the Defense Ministry to develop new weapons systems from scratch.

The Weapons Systems Department, tasked with locating technological solutions to combat needs, often stretches the limits of its ability and finds a willing partner in Israeli defense companies, pushing technological innovation to the brink.

“This is how we safeguard our relative edge over our enemies,” said the source.

As Israel’s Exclusive Economic Zone in the eastern Mediterranean is filling up with large-scale natural gas drilling, the navy is expecting the government to approve a budget that will add four missile ships, drones, unmanned sea vessels and patrol air craft to protect it.

The zone is the size of the State of Israel, and it will up be to the navy to defend this vital national asset from terrorist threats and hostile states.

“We’re being called up to tackle a challenging mission,” the source said, referring to the EEZ.

“We’ll need to be able to send a ship to inspect suspicious traffic there. There’s nothing like personal contact.

The ship must be able to arrive and direct its cannons at suspicious movements.”

Without this kind of security, there will be no international investment in the gas drilling, the source warned.

The navy has been hailed by defense chiefs for launching classified, toppriority missions far from Israel’s shores.

“We’ll provide whatever is needed so that the mission’s goal is met. Even if we need to be very creative, on the border of the imaginary,” the source said.

“The more exotic things don’t blow up,” he added, hinting at the most advanced assets.

Additional innovations include the phased array radar system, in which thousands of small antennas are linked up together to face four directions and direct an electromagnetic ray in various directions, instead of spinning around like a traditional radar.

The navy developed these systems together with the Defense Ministry’s Administration for the Development of Weapons and Technological Infrastructure, and Elta Systems, a subsidiary of Israel Aerospace Industries.

“We must be ahead of the other side. It’s always good to keep the gap as large as possible,” the source continued.

Most important, he stressed, is the personnel that makes up the Israel Navy.

“We have a family-like connection, making the grinding work easier. We relate to each other at eye level in the navy’s culture, irrespective of rank. We invest in our people and in our technology.

“The defense industries have been a caring partner, and go above and beyond for us,” he said.