Archive for August 3, 2013

Off Topic: US Prepares for Al Qaeda Revenge

August 3, 2013

US Prepares for Al Qaeda Revenge.

What lies behind the terror alert issued by the US government to its offices and representatives around the world
US Prepares for Al Qaeda Revenge

Yesterday the US State Department issued an unusual instruction to all of its offices throughout the Muslim world to close their gates on Sunday of August 4, due to a concrete but nonspecific terror threat.

The instruction was based on reliable intelligence that Al Qaeda is initiating a terrorist attack against a US target, with emphasis on diplomatic representations, in an unknown location but at a timing marking the end of the Ramadan fast and the birthday of US President Barack Obama.

What is the reason behind the current alert?

Unlike similar warnings from time to time, this alert does not include western targets, but a concrete threat towards US targets, or a settling of accounts with the US.

This warning is linked to an Al Qaeda effort to seek revenge over the death of Sheik Said al-Shihri, second in command of Al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula, who was killed last month by a US drone operated by the CIA in Yemmen. Ah-Shihri, of Saudi Arabian origins, was arrested at Guantanamo Bay in Cuba for several years and was released in 2006, joining Al Qaeda in the Arab Peninsula in 2007.

According to previous precedents, Al Qaeda has determined a ‘price tag’ for the assassination of its senior members, with US embassies and/or offices where US diplomats and intelligence teams are located being the organization’s preferred targets. This is what the organization did in 2012 in the wake of the death of  Abu Yahya Al-Libi, deputy of the Al Qaeda branch in Libya, who was also taken out by a CIA-operated drone.

Two days after the his death was announced, Al Qaeda operatives planted a bomb near the office of the US task force in Benghazi, Libya. On September 11, 2012, after a tape voiced by Al Qaeda leader Ayman Al-Zawahiri was released, the US consulate in Benghazi was attacked by armed terrorists. The attack resulted in the deaths of US ambassador Christopher Stevens and three of the consulate’s employees.

Several days after the death of Ah-Shihri was reported, a new tape by Al-Zawahiri was released, with a new warning to the US linked to Guantanamo Bay. On the tape, Al-Zawahiri vowed to do everything to bring about the release of Al Qaeda senior members being held in US prison, including Sheikh Khalid Mohammed, planner of the 9/11 terror attacks of 2001.

The reference to Guantanamo alongside al-Shihri’s biography may imply the desire to tie between his death and the new threat. It is possible that intelligence experts in the US intelligence arena identified additional code words on the tape that actually serve as activation messages for terrorist cells deployed by Al Qaeda around the world.

Off Topic: Chatter among al Qaeda operatives in Yemen led to warnings – CNN.com

August 3, 2013

Officials: Chatter among al Qaeda operatives in Yemen led to warnings – CNN.com.

( While this could conceivably be disinfo, I find it much more credible that the “it’s about to happen” narrative that has been bandied about in the comments. – JW )

By Hakim Almasmari, Barbara Starr and Chelsea J. Carter, CNN
August 3, 2013 — Updated 1459 GMT (2259 HKT)
 The threat to Yemen and possibly its capital, Sanaa,
The threat to Yemen and possibly its capital, Sanaa, “appears much worse than it has in a long time,” says a Yemeni official.

STORY HIGHLIGHTS
  • NEW: Germany, France and Britain also close their Sanaa embassies Sunday and Monday
  • Chatter among al Qaeda operatives has increased in recent days, officials say
  • The chatter comes as new man is named al Qaeda’s No. 2
  • Yemeni intelligence agencies say al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula is planning attacks

Sanaa, Yemen (CNN) — Fresh intelligence led the United States to conclude that operatives of al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula were in the final stages of planning an attack against U.S. and Western targets, several U.S. officials told CNN.

The warning led the U.S. State Department to issue a global travel alert Friday, warning al Qaeda may launch attacks in the Middle East, North Africa and beyond in coming weeks. The U.S. government also was preparing to close 22 embassies and consulates in the region Sunday as a precaution.

The chatter among al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula operatives had gone on for weeks but increased in the last few days, the officials said.

Taken together with a warning from Yemeni officials, the United States took the extraordinary step of shutting down embassies and issuing travel warnings, said the officials, who spoke on condition of anonymity.

While the specific target is uncertain, U.S. officials are deeply worried about a possible attack against the U.S. Embassy in Yemen occurring through Tuesday, the officials said.

The warnings also come as news has surfaced that al Qaeda’s leader, Ayman al-Zawahiri, has appointed the head of al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula, Nasser al-Wahishi, as his overall general manager of the terror network, Seth Jones of the Rand Corporation said.

Terror threat forces embassy closures

With al-Zawahiri, the man who succeeded Osama bin Laden, and al-Wahishi linked, the United States may be taking a cautious but necessary approach by closing the embassies, Jones said.

But as with so much in the intelligence world, there is disagreement over what may really be happening.

Officials have told CNN that some analysts believe the threat is solely in Yemen, while others are convinced plots are under way in several countries.

Even so, security has been greatly tightened across Yemen as a result of local intelligence that al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula was planning attacks in major cities, such as the capital, Sanaa, or Aden, a senior Yemeni national security official told CNN Friday.

Yemeni intelligence agencies alerted authorities of the threat two days ago, when the Yemeni president was in Washington, said the official, who spoke on condition of anonymity.

Britain, France and Germany said their embassies in Sanaa would also be closed on Sunday and Monday over security concerns.

The UK Foreign Office warned its citizens Friday against all travel to Yemen, and it strongly urged British nationals to leave now. “If you don’t leave the country now while commercial carriers are still flying it is extremely unlikely that the British government will be able to evacuate you or provide consular assistance,” according to the Foreign Office warning.

The steps showed heightened security concerns about intelligence that indicates a potential attack in Yemen.

According to three sources, the United States has information al Qaeda in Yemen was in the final stages of planning for an unspecified attack.

“The threat appears much worse than it has in a long time,” the Yemeni official said.

Yemen has tightened security across the country, deploying security forces at all major government institutions, foreign embassies, foreign residential compounds and international organizations, the official said.

According to the Yemeni official, recent U.S. drone attacks may generate reprisals.

“We take these threats seriously, especially since al Qaeda has been dealt many blows over the last few days,” the official said.

In 2011, al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula operatives filmed buildings linked to U.S. personnel in Sanaa, according to a source who has seen the video.

While the incident is not related to this week’s terror warnings, it shows al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula’s capabilities, CNN terrorism analyst Paul Cruickshank said.

Al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula operatives filmed video of the building, which is near the U.S. embassy in Sanaa, and the U.S. personnel who were in it, the source told Cruickshank.

CNN’s Barbara Starr reported from Washington and journalist Hakim Almasmari reported from Sanaa; Chelsea J. Carter wrote this report from Atlanta. CNN’s Mohammed Jamjoon, Bharati Naik, Karen Smith, Saskya Vandoorne and Chris Lawrence contributed to this report.

Rare interview with Egyptian Gen. Abdel Fatah al-Sissi – The Washington Post

August 3, 2013

Rare interview with Egyptian Gen. Abdel Fatah al-Sissi – The Washington Post.

By Lally Weymouth, Saturday, August 3, 6:00 PM

CAIRO — In his first interview since the overthrow of President Mohamed Morsi last month, Egypt’s commanding general sharply criticized the U.S. response, accusing the Obama administration of disregarding the Egyptian popular will and of providing insufficient support amid threats of a civil war.

“You left the Egyptians. You turned your back on the Egyptians, and they won’t forget that,” said an indignant Gen. Abdel Fatah al-Sissi, speaking of the U.S. government. “Now you want to continue turning your backs on Egyptians?”

Sissi is widely considered the most powerful man in Egypt, wielding more control than anyone over the country’s direction after a tumultuous two and a half years in which the military has shoved aside two presidents following popular uprisings. He denied interest in running for president himself but did not rule it out.

Although Sissi gives occasional speeches, he rarely sits down for interviews. But over the course of two hours in an ornate reception room in Cairo’s Defense Ministry on Thursday, he provided his most detailed explanation yet of why he decided to oust Morsi, the nation’s first democratically elected president. Sissi also expressed deep disappointment that the United States has not been more eager to embrace his rationale.

Sissi’s comments are a measure of just how thoroughly the Obama administration has alienated both sides in a profoundly polarized and unsettled Egypt, all while trying to remain neutral. Morsi’s supporters in the Muslim Brotherhood regularly accuse the United States of acquiescing to a military coup.

Sissi spoke on the same day that Secretary of State John F. Kerry made the administration’s most supportive comments to date, saying that Egypt’s army was “restoring democracy.”

“The military was asked to intervene by millions and millions of people,” Kerry said during a visit to Pakistan. “The military did not take over to the best of our judgment — so far.”

The U.S. government is required by law to halt non-humanitarian assistance when a democratically elected government is forced from office in a military coup. But the Obama administration appears determined to avoid using that term, and to prevent a cutoff kicking in of the $1.3 billion that the U.S. government sends to Egypt annually. Much of that aid goes to the military.

Since Morsi’s July 3 ouster, U.S. officials have cautioned Sissi and other generals to show restraint in their dealings with protesters, at least 140 of whom have been killed in clashes with security forces. The Obama administration has also encouraged the military to reconcile with the Muslim Brotherhood.

That prospect appears distant, with authorities promising a fresh crackdown on Islamist protests and Morsi continuing to be detained in an undisclosed location, unable to communicate with even his family.

Still, the furthest Washington has been willing to go in penalizing the military is to postpone the sale of four F-16 fighters. Most analysts say the delay is purely symbolic.

Sissi bristled at the move. “This is not the way to deal with a patriotic military,” he said.

Like many pro-military Egyptians, Sissi appeared angry that the United States has not fully endorsed what he described as “a free people who rebelled against an unjust political rule.” Supporters of Morsi’s removal compare it to longtime autocrat Hosni Mubarak’s 2011 ouster, which was applauded in Washington. But unlike Mubarak, Morsi had been elected in a vote widely seen as free and fair.

The Egyptian military has long received critical support from the United States, and in return has upheld Egypt’s decades-old peace treaty with Israel while serving as a key regional ally.

The ties between Cairo and Washington remain close, although Egypt has recently begun receiving far more aid from regional backers — including Saudi Arabia, Kuwait and the United Arab Emirates — and American influence in Egypt appears to be waning.

Sissi said that Defense Secretary Chuck Hagel calls him “almost every day” but that President Obama has not called since Morsi’s ouster.

Egypt’s commanding general suggested that if the United States wants to avoid further bloodshed in Egypt, it should persuade the Brotherhood to back down from the Cairo sit-ins it has maintained since July 3.

“The U.S. administration has a lot of leverage and influence with the Muslim Brotherhood, and I’d really like the U.S. administration to use this leverage with them to resolve the conflict,” Sissi said.

Morsi came to power last year amid Egypt’s first wave of voting after the toppling of Mubarak. The newly elected president received much of his support from his own Muslim Brotherhood but also won the backing of non-Islamist Egyptians who favored the group because of its reputation for honesty and good works.

Sissi said he had recognized problems with Morsi from the day he was inaugurated. The president, Sissi said, was “not a president for all Egyptians, but a president representing his followers and supporters.”

One of Morsi’s first major acts in office was to sweep away an older generation of military leaders and appoint Sissi to command the country’s armed forces. At the time, many observers speculated that Morsi had selected Sissi because he was more sympathetic than other commanders to the Muslim Brotherhood, which had been oppressed by generations of military-backed leaders.

But in the interview, the 58-year-old Sissi was unsparing in his critique of the group, saying that Brotherhood members are more devoted to their Islamist beliefs than they are to Egypt. “The idea that gathers them together is not nationalism, it’s not patriotism, it is not a sense of a country,” he said.

Still, Sissi portrayed himself as reluctant to move against Morsi, and said he had done all he could during the president’s year in office to help him succeed. Morsi, he said, had repeatedly failed to heed the general’s advice.

Meanwhile, the economy was badly deteriorating, and law and order had begun to break down. Millions of Egyptians took to the streets on June 30, the anniversary of Morsi’s inauguration, to demand the end of his rule.

Ultimately, Sissi said, he had no choice.

“I expected if we didn’t intervene, it would have turned into a civil war,” he said.

Morsi’s backers in the Brotherhood say it is the military that is trying to foment a civil war, by whipping up anti-Islamist sentiment in the media and ordering security forces to crack down on peaceful demonstrations. In response to Kerry’s Thursday comments, which appeared to back the military, Brotherhood spokesman Gehad El-Haddad said that the Obama administration is “supporting tyranny and dictatorship.”

Although the military has dominated this country for six decades — with Morsi’s year in office marking the only exception — Sissi said the generals have no intention of continuing to rule.

Interim Egyptian President Adly Mansour, a judge who was appointed by Sissi, has announced an ambitious timetable for returning to democracy. The road map includes a referendum on a revised constitution, followed by new parliamentary elections by early 2014 and then a presidential vote.

Analysts have cast doubt on the likelihood that political forces in Egypt will be allowed to develop independent of the military’s control, particularly on such a tight schedule. But Sissi said the elections will go ahead as planned and that international monitors will be welcome to observe.

Asked if he intends to run for president, as previous military leaders have done, Sissi suggested he will not, saying he doesn’t “aspire for authority.”

But when pressed, he stopped short of ruling out the possibility.

“The most important achievement in my life is to overcome this circumstance, [to ensure] that we live peacefully, to go on with our road map and to be able to conduct the coming elections without shedding one drop of Egyptian blood,” he said, before adding, “When the people love you, this is the most important thing for me.”

 

 

© The Washington Post Company

Rouhani takes office as Iran’s president, promises ‘constructive interaction with world’

August 3, 2013

Rouhani takes office as Iran’s president, promises ‘constructive interaction with world’ | JPost | Israel News.

By REUTERS

 

LAST UPDATED: 08/03/2013 18:43
Iranian supreme leader Khamenei hands reins to Ahmadinejad’s successor; experts say economic problems he’s inheriting are “staggering”; Rouhani vows moderation, says he will take new steps to remove sanctions.

Hassan Rouhani.

Hassan Rouhani. Photo: REUTERS/Raheb Homavandi

 

Hassan Rouhani took office as Iran’s president on Saturday promising “constructive interaction with the world” after eight years under Mahmoud Ahmadinejad marked by diplomatic confrontation and damaging sanctions.

The politically moderate 64-year-old cleric’s resounding victory at June’s election raised hopes of a negotiated end to the dispute over Iran’s nuclear program and an easing of the sanctions that have hit the OPEC country’s oil exports.

That could avert a possible new war in the Middle East. Both the United States and Israel have said all options – including military action – are open to stop Iran getting nuclear arms.

Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei endorsed Rouhani’s election win in a statement read out to political, religious and military grandees assembled at a Tehran religious site.

Khamenei praised the “selection of a worthy individual who has more than three decades of service to the system of the Islamic Republic … and who from the time of the revolutionary struggle … has resisted the enemies of the Islamic Revolution.”

Symbolizing the handover of power, Khamenei took the presidential mandate from Ahmadinejad and handed the document to Rouhani.

Khamenei then kissed Rouhani on the cheek and the new president kissed the leader on his shoulder, a sign of supplication.

The start of Rouhani’s presidency puts an end to the Ahmadinejad era during which Iran grew more isolated and came under wide-ranging United Nations, US and European Union sanctions over its nuclear program.

Rouhani faces enormous challenges, including inflation he put last month at 42 percent, unemployment, and political divisions between conservative, moderate and reformist factions.

“Moderation does not mean deviating from principles and it is not conservatism in the face of change and development. Moderation … is an active and patient approach in society in order to be distant from the abyss of extremism,” Rouhani said in a short speech after becoming president.

“In the international arena we will also take new steps to promote the Iranian nation towards securing national interests and removing sanctions. Although there are many limitations, the future is bright and promising,” he said.

“The orientation of the government is Iran’s economic salvation, constructive interaction with the world, and a restoration of morality.”

Rouhani’s first test is persuading parliament to approve his list of proposed ministers, which he is expected to present on Sunday after he takes his oath of office in parliament.

“Rouhani will certainly appoint more competent men and women to key economic ministries and institutions. He will also follow saner economic policies,” said Shaul Bakhash, an Iran historian at George Mason University in Virginia.

“But the economic problems are staggering … Above all, without a serious easing of sanctions, it is difficult to see how Rouhani can get the economy moving again.”

CLEAN HANDS

Ahmadinejad defended his time in office, telling state television late on Friday his administration was the least corrupt in history, and blaming sanctions for economic problems.

“We promised to have clean hands; I say with confidence that this government is the cleanest government,” Ahmadinejad said, according to the Mehr news agency.

“The enemy has introduced heavy sanctions and the nation has faced problems. We have made our utmost effort but we couldn’t resolve all the pressures. This issue has been very difficult for us.”

Rouhani has said he will appoint ministers from all political factions, based on their ability, but hardliners have demanded the conservative-dominated parliament reject nominees associated with the “sedition”, their term for the months of protests that followed Ahmadinejad’s disputed 2009 re-election.

Parliament’s confirmation of such candidates would be “a betrayal of the people and the system,” Hossein Shariatmadari, editor of the influential hardline daily Kayhan, wrote in an editorial this week.

A source close to Rouhani confirmed to Reuters that he will nominate Mohammad Javad Zarif, a US-educated former ambassador to the United Nations, as his foreign minister.

Another likely pick is Ali Jannati for culture minister, an influential post which oversees domestic and foreign press in Iran and vets cinema, theater, literature and other arts. Jannati has served as ambassador to Kuwait and his father is Ayatollah Ahmad Jannati, a hardline cleric.

During Ahmadinejad’s presidency, press freedoms were curtailed, newspapers shut down, and this year about a dozen journalists were arrested in a crackdown on the press.

In an interview with the reformist Bahar newspaper this week, Jannati sought to distance himself from his father’s views and indicated he would support more freedom for artists.

“Intellectual matters are not hereditary,” Jannati said, according to Bahar. “I am hopeful that given my views on the fields of music, art, and film, the cultural and artistic atmosphere in the country will soften so that artists can breathe more easily.”

Putin visit to Cairo impending. El-Sisi moves to outlaw Brotherhood. US in blocking mode

August 3, 2013

Putin visit to Cairo impending. El-Sisi moves to outlaw Brotherhood. US in blocking mode.

DEBKAfile Exclusive Report August 3, 2013, 10:08 AM (IDT)
Saudi spy chief calls on Russian president in Moscow

Saudi spy chief calls on Russian president in Moscow

President Vladimir Putin is  set to visit to Cairo – possibly next Wednesday Aug. 7 – on the advice of Saudi intelligence chief Prince Bandar bin Sultan, debkafile reports exclusively. The prince landed in Moscow Wednesday, July 31 without warning. He told Putin that Saudi King Abdullah was in favor of the Russian president going to Cairo as soon as possible and did not rule out the visit occasioning the signing of a large Russian arms sale to Egypt, bankrolled by the oil kingdom.
Putin will find Egypt’s strongman, Defense Minister Gen. Abdel-Fattah El-Sisi, in full cry with his next steps against the Muslim Brotherhood, after unseating its president in a coup on July 3.

El-Sisi is holding urgent discussions with the heads of the judiciary to have the movement outlawed. The unwritten pact between the generals and judicial system is the most potent political force in Egypt today, which the Brotherhood will find hard to beat.

The army’s first action will be to break up the round-the-clock protests which tens of thousands of supporters of the ousted president Mohamed Morsi have been staging in Cairo for the past month for his release and reinstatement.

Wednesday, July 31, their sit-in was ruled a threat to national security. For the next step, soldiers of the Republican Guard division, whose normal duties are guarding the president, have been issued with police uniforms for a more acceptable appearance when they clear protesters off the streets of the capital any day now.

The prospect of a Russian presidential visit has fired Gen. El-Sisi with redoubled energy and impetus for his crackdown on the Brotherhood.

For Putin, this will be his second trip to Cairo; his first took place in 2005 when Hosni Mubarak was president. He will play it to the hilt as a platform to show the world, and especially Arab Muslims, that he alone of the world’s five leading powers is openly committed to fighting radical Islam and ready to assist any Arab leader sharing this commitment.

He will also try and use his Cairo visit for much needed image repairs over his backing for Bashar Assad and Hizballah terrorist fighters in their savage war against a rebellion led by the Muslim Brotherhood and al Qaeda affiliates. Putin hopes to come away from Cairo as champion of the war on radical Islam in two important Arab countries and the most reliable ally of forces for moderation.

His next stop around mid-August is Tehran. This will be hard to explain away as a gesture of support of a moderate regime, but with some fast footwork, the Russian leader will use the double exposure to underscore Moscow’s solid presence at the power centers of the Middle East – in striking contrast to Washington.
The Obama administration is already seething over the Kremlin’s decision to grant the fugitive former US intelligence contractor Edward Snowden temporary asylum in Russia for escaping trial in the States on a charge of espionage.
Even more painful knocks are in store for Barack Obama’s Middle East policy and prestige when Egypt’s military strongman proceeds to outlaw the Muslim Brotherhood movement in defiance of his wishes and Putin turns up in Cairo with more provocations.

Secretary of State John Kerry, aware of the shoals ahead for Washington, sent  European Union foreign policy executive Catherine Ashton to Cairo earlier this week, followed by German Foreign Minister Guido Westerweller Friday, Aug 2, to try and hold El-Sisi’s hand.

When they got nowhere, Kerry assigned US Undersecretary of State for the Middle East William Burns with paying a second visit to Cairo since the coup. He has an appointment to meet interim Foreign Minister Nabil Fahmy Saturday, Aug. 3, and is waiting for one with the defense minister.

Burns came away from his first trip to Cairo empty-handed.