WarSclerotic

Winning: Threats To Israeli Aircraft Over Iran.

( Don’t miss reading this… – JW )

July 8, 2013: Iranian military leaders were relieved at the recent election of the “moderate” Hassan Rowhani to replace Mahmoud Ahmadinejad as president. Rowhani is known to be a superb negotiator and someone you can reason with. Ahmadinejad was neither of those things and his constant and hysterical threats to Israel made war with Israel an ever increasing possibility. This was made worse by the growing threat of Iran developing nuclear weapons. Ahmadinejad also liked to boast of how well prepared Iran was to kick Israeli ass if it ever came to a fight. Iranian military leaders cringed at this, because they knew that the military power Ahmadinejad was boasting of was largely an illusion. The constant stream of boastful press releases put out by the Iranian military were for building domestic morale, not to describe any real improvements in Iranian military capabilities. The Israeli’s knew this, as did Ahmadinejad (well, he was told) but the numerous threats against Israel caused the Israelis to threaten right back. The problem was that Israel was much more capable to attacking Iran than Iran was in defending itself.

While Israel has a huge stockpile of fuel, ammo and other supplies for wartime (about 30 days’ worth), Iran has very little. While Iran pumps a lot of oil, it doesn’t have the refineries to produce much aircraft grade fuel. Iran has few smart bombs, missiles and well, not much of anything compared to Israel.

Israel can put over 500 aircraft (mostly F-15s and F-16s) a day (as in sorties) over Iran. That’s in addition to more than twice as many for any short range threat. Israel has over 25,000 smart bombs and missiles (not counting smaller missiles like Hellfire). Within a few days this Israeli air power could destroy what little Iran has in the way of major weapons systems (armored vehicles, aircraft, warships and weapons research and manufacturing facilities). Worse, the earlier claims of Iranian military strength would not only be exposed as false but greatly diminished from what they actually were before the Israelis came by. Iranian military leaders did not want this to happen, although the senior clerics of the religious dictatorship that rules Iran saw a positive angle to an Israeli attack; it would rally all Iranians behind the generally disliked government.

The Iranian problem is that three decades of sanctions has made it impossible to replace obsolete and worn out gear or even maintain the elderly systems they have to rely on. Thus the best defenses (anti-aircraft missiles and jet fighters) against an Israeli attack are largely absent. What is available is ancient and probably ineffective against Israeli SEAD (Suppression of Enemy Air Defenses) capabilities.

For example, Iran has been having increasing problems keeping its 1970s era F-5s flying. The ones that are still flying tend to crash a lot, or not be available for use because of maintenance problems (including spare parts shortages.  Spare parts for all U.S. aircraft Iran still uses have been hard to come by. Iran has managed, sort of. Nevertheless, the Iranian Air Force is largely a fraud. It has lots of aircraft that, for the most part, sit there, but can’t fly, because of age and lack of replacement parts. Those that can fly would likely provide target practice for Israeli fighters.

The Iranian Air Force is still recovering from the effects of the 1979 revolution (which led to an embargo on spare parts and new aircraft). Despite that, many Iranian warplanes remain flyable, but only for short periods. The main reason for even that is an extensive smuggling operation that obtains spare parts. Two of their aircraft, the U.S. F-4D and F-5E Tiger, were widely used around the world. Somewhere, someone had parts for these planes that Iran could buy. There are still about 40 of each in service, with less than half of them flyable at any time.

This was less the case with Iran’s most expensive warplane, the U.S. F-14 Tomcat. Iran was the only export customer of this aircraft. Some F-14s have been kept flyable, despite the rumored sabotage of Iran’s AIM-54 Phoenix missiles by U.S. technicians as they were leaving. To demonstrate this, they sent 25 F-14s on a fly-over of Tehran in 1985. Today, Iran has about 20 F-14s, with less than half of them flyable.

Iran has sought to buy new foreign aircraft. In the 1990s, with the end of the Cold War, and the collapse of the Soviet Union, they sought to buy from Russia. Despite the low prices, a combination of Western pressure (to not sell) and lack of Iranian money for high-ticket items, not that many aircraft were obtained. One unforeseen opportunity was the 1991 Gulf War. Many Iraqi aircraft (most of them Russian-built) fled to Iran to avoid American attack. The Iranians never returned them. Iran ended up with up to 60 MiG-29s. There were also 18 Su-24s, a force that was expanded by more purchases from Russia. Black market spare parts have been available, but the MiG-29 is a notoriously difficult aircraft to maintain, even when you have all the parts you need.

Iran currently has about two hundred fighters and fighter bombers, but only about half can be put into action and then usually for only one sortie a day. The chronic shortage of spare parts, limits the number of hours the aircraft can be flown. This means pilots lack good flying skills. The poor maintenance and untrained pilots leads to more accidents.

Iran is similarly ill-prepared when it comes to ground based anti-aircraft defense. Iran has managed to keep operational some of the American Hawk anti-aircraft missile systems it bought in the 1970s. But these are not very capable these days and the Israelis know all about Hawk. Iran has had limited success in buying new systems from Russia and China and, in general, is as ill-prepared as it is in the air to oppose an Israeli attack.

By REUTERS

07/08/2013 11:22

Islamist group claims it was fired upon while staging sit-in outside barracks where Morsi being held; State TV reports 42 killed; Egyptian military: “Terrorist group” tried to storm Republican Guard facility.

CAIRO – The Muslim Brotherhood called on Egyptians to rise up against those who “want to steal” the revolution, a statement by its political wing said on Monday, after Egyptian state television said 42 people were killed in shooting outside the Cairo headquarters of the Republican Guard.

The Brotherhood’s official spokesman, Gehad El-Haddad said shooting broke out in the early morning while Islamists were praying and staging a peaceful sit-in outside the Republican Guard barracks where Morsi is believed to be held.

Morsi supporters carry body of man killed by violence outside the Republican Guard headquarters Photo: REUTERS

The military claimed “a terrorist group” tried to storm the Republican Guard compound and one army officer had been killed and 40 wounded. Soldiers returned fire when they were attacked by armed assailants, a military source said.

The bloodshed deepened Egypt’s political crisis, escalating the struggle between the army, which overthrew Morsi last Wednesday after mass demonstrations demanding his resignation, and the Brotherhood, which has denounced what it called a coup.

A statement on the Brotherhood’s Facebook page following the shooting said, “(The Freedom and Justice Party) calls on the great Egyptian people to rise up against those who want to steal their revolution with tanks and armored vehicles, even over the dead bodies of the people,”

Following the shooting, the ultra-conservative Islamist Nour party, which initially supported the military intervention, said it was withdrawing from stalled negotiations to form an interim government for the transition to fresh elections.

Al Jazeera’s Egypt news channel broadcast footage of what appeared to be five men killed in the violence, and medics applying cardiopulmonary resuscitation to an unconscious man at a makeshift clinic at a nearby pro-Morsi sit-in.

A Reuters television producer at the scene saw first aid helpers attempting mouth-to-mouth resuscitation on a dying man. Wounded people were being ferried to the field hospital on motorbikes, given first aid treatment and taken away in ambulances.

The military overthrew Morsi on Wednesday after mass nationwide demonstrations led by youth activists demanding his resignation. The Brotherhood denounced the intervention as a coup and vowed peaceful resistance.

ROADBLOCKS

Military vehicles sealed off traffic in a wide area around the Rabaa Adawia mosque where Morsi supporters led by senior Brotherhood leaders have been staging protests since his ouster.

The army also closed two of the main bridges across the Nile River with armored vehicles, witnesses said.

Talks on forming a new government were already in trouble before Monday’s shooting, after the Nour party rejected two liberal-minded candidates for prime minister proposed by interim head of state Adli Mansour.

Nour, Egypt’s second biggest Islamist party, which is vital to give the new authorities a veneer of Islamist backing, said it had withdrawn from the negotiations in protest at what it called the “massacre at the Republican Guard (compound)”.

“We’ve announced our withdrawal from all tracks of negotiations as a first response,” party spokesman Nader Bakar said on Facebook.

via Muslim Brotherhood calls for uprising against Egyptian army after dozens killed | JPost | Israel News.

Muslim Brotherhood: 34 shot dead in Cairo: Egyptian army set to defend oil pipeline and Suez shipping.

Route of the Sumed oil pipeline

Egyptian soldiers opened fire early Monday, July 8, on Muslim Brotherhood supporters at the Republican Guards Club in Cairo where deposed president Mohamed Morsi is held. The Brotherhood reported 34 dead and 300 wounded.  The army said the soldiers opened fire when “armed terrorists” tried to storm the compound. Egyptian media reported that the army and police forces opened fire after a group of demonstrators tried to climb the walls of the club. According to eyewitnesses, the army raided a quiet sit-in outside the Presidential Guards Club.

While events in Cairo following the Egyptian military takeover of power are the focus of media coverage, debkafile’s military sources report that the army is quietly reorganizing to secure the country’s primary assets – Suez Canal traffic, the oil facilities in the town of Suez and the Sumed oil pipeline – all extremely sensitive targets.

According to intelligence reaching the military, a radical Islamist force – made up of a clandestine Muslim Brotherhood raider unit called El Giza Al Sidi, Sinai Bedouin Salafists linked to al Qaeda and the Palestinian Hamas – are conspiring to activate commando and missile units for sabotaging Suez shipping and the flow of oil from the Persian Gulf to the Mediterranean.

Hitting one ship transiting the canal or a single explosion at the pipeline would suffice to send world oil prices and insurance costs sky high.
This armed Islamist coalition also plans a major campaign of terror against Israel.
These concerns were underscored Sunday, July 7, when armed Salafists using at least 10 explosive devices blew up the Egyptian gas pipeline to Jordan rat a point south of El Arish in northern Sinai. The flow was brought to a halt.

That night, the Israeli Counter-Terror Bureau strongly urged Israelis to avoid traveling to Sinai and travelers already there to leave at once amid a rising danger of attack and abduction.
The Egyptian military has been warned that the El Giza Al Sidi raiders have been directed by their Muslim Brotherhood masters to attack the Sumed oil pipeline, which starts at Ain Sukhna on the Gulf of Suez, runs 320 kilometers through the Western desert and ends at Sidi Kerir on the Mediterranean coast south of Alexandria.
This attack would not just target the Egyptian EGPC, but also lash out at its Saudi and UAE co-owners, whom the Brotherhood accuses of abetting the military coup ousting them from power: the Saudi Aramco, and the International Petroleum Investment Co. of Abu Dhabi.

The fighting between Egyptian military and armed Islamists in Sinai went into its third day Monday with the eruption of a fierce battle close to the Israeli border not far from the Israeli Red Sea resort and port-town of Eilat. The sounds of gunfire and explosions reached the Ovda Israeli Air Force base 40 kilometers north of the town. As a precaution, the Israeli army closed to civilian traffic the section of Route 12 from northern Israel to Eilat which runs close to the Sinai border.
Armed Salafists tearing around in minivans continued to attack Egyptian army and police positions and checkpoints at El Arish and Sheikh Zweid, firing the heavy machine guns and missile launchers mounted on their vehicles. Some used Grads.  An Egyptian soldier and a policeman were killed Sunday.

debkafile’s military sources report that the Egyptian army has taken down some of its Sinai checkpoints and is relocating a smaller number on main intersections and manning them with larger contingents.

Israel Matzav: Hmmm: Mysterious explosions near Syrian arms depot holding Russian S-300 parts in Latakia.

A mysterious explosion destroyed a weapons plant belonging to Bashar al-Assad near Latakia, Syria on Friday night.

Arab media outlets reported mysterious explosions at a military facility near the Syrian coastal city of Latakia overnight Friday. BBC Arabic reported powerful explosions at a Syrian military arms depots near the Latakia port that sent shock waves several kilometers from the source.

Syrian Observatory for Human Rights Chairman Rami Abdel Rahman said intense explosions shook the entire region, where the Syrian regime has a large army base and multiple arms caches. The explosions occurred possibly after they were targeted with rockets, the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights said.

Witnesses reported that at least 10 Syrian troops were killed following the explosions. Reports attributed the explosions to an attack aimed at government arms cashes near the village of Asamiya, 20 kilometers (12 miles) northeast of Latakia.

Abdel Rahman said there were indications that the blasts were caused by rocket fire targeting the depots, but that there was uncertainty over who was behind the attack.

Israel’s Defense Ministry said it was “studying the reports.”

Lebanese terrorist group Hezbollah’s Al-Manar TV network reported the attack and quoted a Syrian defense official saying it was carried out by rebels based in northern Latakia.

No one else knows who was behind the explosions. But Dickie ‘tikkun olam’ Silverstein is sure it’s da Joooz. You see Latakia is near Tartus, the Russian naval base on the Syrian coast, and….

Though the Free Syrian Army took immediate credit for the attack, it was not the responsible party.  A confidential Israeli source informs me that Israeli forces attacked the site.  The target were components of Russia’s SA-300 anti-aircraft missile system which had been shipped by Russia to Tartus and stored in Latakia.

Israel and exerted tremendous pressure on Vladimir Putin to cancel its contract to supply the missile batteries to Syria, since once they were operational they would render Israeli aircraft more vulnerable to attack.  Israel, of course, will countenance no front-line state having even defensive weapons which give it superiority over Israeli weapons systems.  In response to Israeli entreaties, Russia’s leader refused to budge and recommitted to providing the weapons to Assad.  Apparently, he’d begun to follow through on his promise with these first shipments.

Dickie may not be able to put together a coherent English sentence, but for once I hope he’s right. It’s high time for at least one country in the free world not to back down in the face of Russia’s meddling and support for terrorism. I’m glad it’s my country.

There’s another interesting piece of speculation about how the attack might have been carried out here.

At least 16 killed in attack on Cairo’s army headquarters, sources say – Alarabiya.net English | Front Page.

Syria: Warehouse explosion result of rocket fire from shore – Israel News, Ynetnews.

Friday saw reports of mysterious explosion of a Syrian army munitions warehouse in costal city of Latakia, however source of explosion remained unclear; Sunday, Hezbollah-affiliated paper claims fire came from shore area

Roi Kais

The Hezbollah affiliated Lebanese paper Al-Akhbar published Sunday new details about Friday’s mysterious explosion which destroyed a Syrian army munitions warehouse near the sea-side town of Latakia in northwestern Syria.

The paper cited sources as claiming that the alleged rocket fire on the warehouse – which was part of a Syrian military base and caused a series of explosions – was perpetrated from the shore region, if not from the sea itself.

A Syrian military officer located not far from Latakia told the paper that three missiles hit the army base, which is located at the outskirts of al-Haffa. He said that the attack caused a fire which eventually reached the munitions warehouse, causing it to catch fire and eventually explode.

According to reports, the explosion caused the death of one Syrian soldier and injured nine others.

The Syrian army reportedly returned fire causing the fire to spread farther towards the coastal city.

The story was first published on Friday when Syrian opposition forces claimed that a warehouse belonging to the Syrian army exploded that morning as a result of a missile attack.

The warehouse itself, it was reported, was located in a military base some 20 km outside the city and an army source who spoke to Al Manar’s television station said that the missile originated from the battles currently being conducted in the town, however, contradictory reports have since emerged.

The website for the Free Syrian Army stipulated a number of alternative theories regarding who and what caused the Latakia explosion. Among the explanations proposed was the presence of “enemy aircraft” as well as rebel operated missiles. However, both claims were purely speculative.

The website of Al Manar, a Lebanese network owned by Hezbollah, published a story under the headline: “Military source to Al Manar: This is what really happened in Latakia.”

The story claimed that a number of consecutive blasts were heard in the area but that an army investigation revealed they were stray mortars that fell within the army base, and whose origin was local clashes.

The source denied claims that the attack originated from the air or sea, and certainly not at the hands of “enemy aircraft,” however Sunday’s report seems to refute Al Manar’s claims, shrouding the story in additional mystery.

Israel Air Force jet crashes off Gaza coast, pilots safe – Diplomacy & Defense – Israel News | Haaretz Daily Newspaper.

Reason the two pilots abandoned the F16I outside Israeli waters still unclear; both are in stable condition in hospital.

An archive image of an Israeli F-16i warplane. Photo by AP

Two Israel Air Force fighter pilots abandoned their F16I fighter jet Sunday afternoon in a location beyond Israel’s territorial waters, opposited the Gaza coast.

The reasons the pilots left the plane were not immediately clear.

Both pilots were rescued from the water and taken for medical treatment to Sheba Medical Center, Tel Hashomer. As far as is known, they are in stable condition.

The F16I (known as the Sufa, or storm in Hebrew), is the IAF’s most advanced fighter jet, and is considered particularly reliable.

In March, an IAF Cobra helicopter crashed during a routine training flight in the south, as it was making its way back to the Palmahim Air Base. Reserve pilots Lt.-Col. Noam Ron, 49, and Maj. Erez Flekser, 31, were killed in the incident. Air force investigators said a break in the tail rotor of the aircraft caused the accident.

Gunmen attack Sinai checkpoints close to Israel border – Alarabiya.net English | Front Page.

Israel Hayom | The sound of one hand clapping.

Act of War: Israel Attacks Syrian Weapons Depot Containing Advanced Russian Arms | Global Research.

A massive explosion last Thursday at a major Syrian weapons depot in Latakia, not far from the main port of Tartus, completely destroyed the facility and munitions stored there.  

Tartus is Syria’s main port.  It is largely controlled by the Russian military, and the route by which all weapons transported by sea would enter Syria.  As such, any advanced Russian weaponry would enter via Tartous and might be stored in the Latakia depot.

Though the Free Syrian Army took immediate credit for the attack, it was not the responsible party.  A confidential Israeli source informs me that Israeli forces attacked the site.  The target were components of Russia’s SA-300 anti-aircraft missile system which had been shipped by Russia to Tartus and stored in Latakia.

Israel and exerted tremendous pressure on Vladimir Putin to cancel its contract to supply the missile batteries to Syria, since once they were operational they would render Israeli aircraft more vulnerable to attack.  Israel, of course, will countenance no front-line state having even defensive weapons which give it superiority over Israeli weapons systems.  In response to Israeli entreaties, Russia’s leader refused to budge and recommitted to providing the weapons to Assad.  Apparently, he’d begun to follow through on his promise with these first shipments.

This is Israel’s third attack inside Syria since January.  It considerably escalates the conflict there since it is the first known attack by Israeli forces which destroyed Russian armaments.  Though Putin was surely warned by Israel that this would happen if he went forward with the arms deal, actually attacking Russian munitions is an act to which Putin will not take kindly, to say the least.

Assad bragged publicly a month ago that the SA-300 deliveries had arrived.  Turns out he was right.  Perhaps he shouldn’t have shot his mouth off.

Israel’s Channel 10 aired a claim by Syria rebels that Israel attacked and Israel journalists tell their viewers that they know things they’re not allowed to tell.  A clear indication of Israeli involvement.  Haaretz reports that a Syrian army source called the explosion the result of a technical failure, which hardly seems credible.

My source further notes that the FSA coordinated with the IDF and launched a rocket attack on nearby government military installations in order to distract loyalist forces from the real target.  But the rebels played no role in the attack on the munitions cache.  Their claim of responsibility conveniently takes Israel off the hook (until people read this report) and lessens pressure or condemnation on Israel for its third major attack inside Syria since January.

It’s all the stranger that Haaretz’s Amos Harel, in writing about the incident would write this:

Israel wasn’t mentioned in connection with Thursday’s incident in Latakia.  It doesn’t intervene in events in Syria.

Apparently, Israelis believe that “intervention” means invading the country with boots on the ground.  When it sends its jet planes to bomb Syrian targets inside the country, that’s not considered intervention.  This is further evidence of Israeli delusions and self-denial about their level of interference in the affairs of frontline Arab states.  Such refusal to acknowledge Israel’s real role allows Israelis to believe falsely they’re innocent bystanders, sometimes even victims (!) in the affairs in the region.

How does Harel think Israel coordinated the FSA diversionary attack near Latakia?  With smoke signals?  No, Israeli intelligence has created a tacit alliance with the rebels who serve Israel’s interests when Assad acts in ways Israel believes will harm it.  Hezbollah’s role in the Qusayr fight may have caused alarm in the Israeli defense ministry, which may’ve seen this as further evidence of escalation inside Syria.  If Israel could take Hezbollah down a peg or two after its victory taking the Syria town on Assad’s behalf, it would be eager to do so.  In this sense, the Syrian civil war is a proxy battle between Israel and Hezbollah who are itching for their next direct confrontation (the last one being in 2006).

Israel launched a very similar raid several months ago on the Sudanese capital Khartoum, in which it destroyed a major government arms depot.  It’s known that Iran ships its weapons to Hamas and Syria via ports on the Arabian Sea, from where they’re shipped via Sudan to points north.  Again, Israel has sucked countries throughout the region into the vortex of its own conflict with the Palestinians.  If this doesn’t prove that this conflict is a major destabilizing force in the region, nothing will.

The area attacked is in the Alawite heartland of northwestern Syria.  As such, Assad would think of it as one of his most secure bastions.  Violating it as Israel has done would be meant to show Assad that he has no sanctuary from which to hide and serve as a psychological blow.  At least, Israel would hope to convey such a message.

Haaretz’s Hebrew edition reports that Israel may’ve chosen this time to attack because the attention of the international media was focussed on the Egyptian coup, which served as a convenient distraction.

Another factor to keep in mind is that the recent assistance that Hezbollah offered to Assad in sending 4,000 fighters to subdue the strategic town of Qusayr would come with a price.  Hezbollah would not be shy is extracting its share of the bargain, which would certainly involve transshipment of advanced Iranian or Russian weaponry via Syria to Lebanon, where the Lebanese militia would use it against Israel in any future military confrontation.

Another possibility is that Russia, which recently confirmed that it would honor its contract with Assad calling for delivery of the SA-300 anti-aircraft system.  It’s possible Russia had begun shipping components of these missile batteries to Assad.

This site speculates that Israel used cruise missiles launched from its German-built Dolphin submarines to destroy the complex.  If true, it would mean that German built advanced armaments were being used by Israel in a pre-emptive attack violating the territorial sovereignty of another Mideast country.  Though Israel could just as easily have used its own air force to do the job.