WarSclerotic

The Explosions in Latakia: Before and After.

Ronen Solomon

13/7/2013

Nine days after reports of explosions near the Syrian city of Latakia, Israel Channel 2 News and IsraelDefense have published photos of the area before and after the mysterious explosion. The publication of these photos comes after the TV network CNN claimed over the weekend that according to US sources, Israel was behind the attack.

According to several Syrian opposition websites, the attack took place in the area of the village of Samiyah on the way from the port city of Latakia to Al Haffah – where a military complex containing a network of 20 bunkers and an isolated area with a warehouse stretching across 80 meters is located.

Intelligence researcher Ronen Solomon obtained satellite photography of the same area, and an examination of the satellite photography and comparison to the photos taken before the supposed date of the attack yields several findings.

A general view:

Area A: Two hangars, including a parking lot for cargo towers located near the entrance to the military complex on the main road between Latakia and Al-Haffah.
Area B: A network of padded ammunition warehouses.
Area C: A central structure with unclear characteristics.

Photography analysis:

Area A: Two hangars, including a parking lot for cargo towers, were constructed in the past two years, located near the entrance to the military complex on the main road between Latakia and Al-Haffah.

Area A: In parallel to the main road, a convoy of about six cargo transporters was observed in the satellite photo from July 7 on the service path leading to the parking area (no evidence as to damage).

Area B: About 20 isolated storage warehouses. Based on the comparison of the satellite photography, impact can be identified with certainty at five warehouses. This figure corresponds with the testimonies gathered in Syria and presented on various websites.

Area C: A large structure of unclear purpose can be identified, which based on the comparison of the satellite photography, resembles the results of the bombing of the Syrian reactor in 2007.

A large cargo terminal of sorts was constructed at the entrance to the ammunition complex in the past two years, from which convoys of vehicles have arrived and departed, as can be seen on the photography from July 7. From an analysis of the satellite photography from the past few years and from the recent period, it seems that the terminal itself, near the main road, was not hit.

The main damage is visible in the photo of the warehouse that collapsed inwards after being hit, and vehicles can be seen in the July 7 photo, including a crane, apparently carrying out evacuation activities.

Several bunkers that were hit can be discerned in another photo. It is unclear if they sustained a direct hit or, as was reported, exploded due to secondary damage caused from damage to the main warehouse, which is located nearby.

According to the testimonies that have been gathered regarding the attack in the area of Latakia, it is possible that the ammunition warehouse was just one of several arenas. An additional report referred to a strike in the area of the Syrian naval base north of Latakia, which is used for deploying two Bastion batteries used to launch Yakhont missiles, and it is possible that they were also an attack objective.

Report: Strike on Syria carried out from Turkish base – Israel News, Ynetnews.

( My read: Disinfo from Russia to sew discord among US allies after being humiliated by the US leak. – JW )

Russia’s RT network reports Israeli planes on mission to bomb Syrian weapons facility left military base in Turkey and approached Latakia from the sea to avoid flying over Syrian airspace

Ynet

Are Israel and Turkey cooperating against Bashar Assad‘s regime? The English-language Russian news website RT reported Monday that Israel used a Turkish military base to launch one of its recent airstrikes against Syria from the sea.

The report apparently refers to the alleged IAF strike on a weapons factory in the Syrian port city of Latakia.

“Our source is telling us that Israeli planes left a military base inside Turkey and approached Latakia from the sea to make sure that they stayed out of Syrian airspace so that they cannot become a legitimate target for the Syrian air force,” RT’s Paula Slier reported.

Relations between Israel and Turkey were recently restored after a major diplomatic crisis broke out following the IDF raid on a Turkish flotilla vessel in May 2010. US President Barack Obama brokered talks between Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and Turkish PM Recep Tayyip Erdogan during his trip to Israel last March.

Turkey has been at odds with Syria since the outbreak of the civil war two years ago and Ankara has come out fiercely against Bashar Assad’s regime.

On Sunday, the Sunday Times reported the Latakia attack was carried out by an Israeli Dolphin class submarine which fired a cruise missile from the sea, according to intelligence source in the Middle East.

According to the British newspaper, the target was a consignment of 50 Russian-made Yakhont P-800 anti-ship missiles delivered to President Bashar Assad’s armed forces this year.

The Times reported that the attack is understood to have been closely coordinated with Washington, which had earlier signaled to Moscow its frustration at the missiles shipment.

On Saturday, CNN reported that Israel was behind last week’s strike in Latakia. According to sources, the attack was carried out by IAF planes, targeting Yakhont missiles.

The sources added that Israel launched the July 5 strike in order to hit the Russian-made missiles, which Israel believed pose a threat to its forces.

Many casualties in surging Egyptian army-Islamist Sinai hostilities. Two flashpoints near Israeli border.

Egyptian military command post in Sinai

The last ten days have seen dozens killed and hundreds wounded in battles between Egyptian security forces and a coalition of increasingly aggressive Islamist Salafists and Palestinian Hamas and Jihad Islami fighters, debkafile’s military and intelligence sources report. The Egyptian military has clamped a news blackout on the Sinai battlefield.

In the latest incident Monday, July 15, rocket-propelled grenades blew up a bus carrying workmen to the Multinational Force-MFO based at Al Gora near the North Sinai town of El Arish. According to official sources, three of the passengers were killed and 17 injured. Unofficial estimates were as high as 13-20 dead. The attackers shouted Allahu Akbar when the bus blew up.

debkafile reports that further, unknown numbers of Egyptian soldiers and Islamist assailants were killed in a gunfight nearby. The Salafists were trying to plant explosives along the road connecting the town of Sheih Zweid to the MFO encampment. Many of them died when gunshots detonated the explosives they were holding.

Our sources disclose that since the fall of the Muslim Brotherhood in Cairo on July 3, Egyptian troops confront surging Islamist violence at four current flashpoints in Sinai, two near the Israeli border.

One is the Rafah area south of the Gaza Strip where the Salafists are tackling Egyptian forces engaged in blocking the smuggling tunnels running contraband into the Palestinian enclave.
The commander of Egypt’s Second Army, Gen. Ahmed Wasfi, is convinced by incoming intelligence that the Muslim Brotherhood unseated two weeks ago in Cairo and its Libyan allies are conniving with the Salafist Bedouin of Sinai and the Palestinian Hamas and Jihad Islami of the Gaza Strip to stage a violent uprising against the Egyptian army and security forces in Sinai.

The events of the past 24 hours confirm him in this conviction. Saturday, July 13, the Egyptian army intercepted and destroyed three arms convoys crossing from Libya into Egypt on their way to the Gaza Strip. The next day, armed Salafists conducted a multiple onslaught on Egyptian Border Police camps, checkpoints and patrols opposite the Israel region of Halutza.

The residents of Bnei Netzarim, Naveh, Yevul, Dekel, Avshalom and Sdeh Avraham were told to stay in protected areas and local security squads placed on alert, in case the Salafist assailants stormed across the border to attack Israeli targets.

Overnight, the IDF bolstered military units in the area. In the process, an Israeli Hermes 450 drone crashed while on surveillance duty over the embattled area. The Israeli Air Force reported that a technical fault caused the drone to fly out of control.
All Sunday, the Egyptian army sent extra forces to bolster the engineering units engaged in destroying the smuggling tunnels carrying arms, fighters and consumer goods into the Gaza Strip for more than a decade, which provided the Hamas-ruled regime with a major source of revenue. Orders from the high command in Cairo were to step up the pressure on Hamas and Jihad Islami. And so, the Egyptian army targeted a number of tunnels on the Rafah border used to smuggle fuel to Gaza. Without gas, their combat mobility will be sharply reduced.

Army sources said that 80 percent of all tunnels have been demolished, amounting to about 805 tunnels. Bulldozers were used to remove several machines pumping fuel into the Gaza Strip through the tunnels.

Gaza Prime Minister Ismail Haniyeh tried appealing to Egyptian intelligence chiefs in Cairo to stop the operation. He was fobbed off with junior officers who said they were not competent to make decisions in the matter and would pass his request to higher authority.
The El Arish area has become the most dangerous of all the four flashpoints: There, the heavily concentrated Egyptian force is battered by constant assaults. They are hemmed in by thousands of Salafist gunmen. Any officer, soldier or vehicle trying to exit their fortified compound runs the gauntlet of roadside bombs, anti-tank weapons, hand grenades and heavy machine gun fire.
Fighting is raging at two more locations: the central mountains of Jabel Halal and along the Egyptian-Israeli border opposite Israel’s southern air base of Ovda.

Secrets and missiles – Israel Opinion, Ynetnews.

Something is not right in the relationship of trust between Israel and the United States. It’s illogical and unforgivable that in such an intimate relationship – as it is known to us, at least – between two defense establishments, the secrets of one side will be given away by the other side’s mouth.

Those sources in the Pentagon who are selling the Israeli secrets for cheap to the American media know that they are jeopardizing clear Israeli interests in the region and putting the lives of Israel’s citizens in danger, as bad as it may sound.

When it happens once, it could be someone’s slip of the tongue. When it happens twice – it’s a work plan.

On May 5 at dawn, warehouses containing Hezbollah-bound Iranian Fateh-110 missiles were attacked in the Damascus area. Only several hours after the bombing, American government workers rushed to point a finger at Israel as the country behind the attack.

At the time Israel was still looking for excuses to explain to itself why the Americans got mixed up. After all, at the time President Assad did not want – just as he does not want now – an open conflict with Israel. At the time He was ready – just as he is now – to hide behind public declaration that the attack was carried out by the rebels. The American informing put him under huge pressure by the generals surrounding him, who demanded a response. And indeed, Assad, in a serious of public and aggressive statements, vowed that Syria would no longer practice restraint over damage to its sovereignty.

This time, after the attack on a military base north of Latakia, the Americans managed to control themselves for one week. On Friday night they once against pointed a finger at Israel as the country responsible for the attack on the weapons depot, which is believed to have contained Yakhont coastal missiles. Now, Assad is in a dilemma. When the Americans insist it was Israel, what is he supposed to do: Practice restraint and demonstrate weakness? Israel shouldn’t bet on that.

Strategic partner revealed as unreliable

After May’s leak the Americans apologized, explaining that it was the work of low-ranking officials, saying there was a commission of inquiry. Israel swallowed the lie. Two months have passed and the big mouths in Washington speculated with state secrets once again, proving that the allegedly close relationship between Hagel and Ya’alon has nothing to do with the secretary of defense’s ability to control his people.

The odd thing is that Russian weapon systems have been damaged, and the Russians appear unfazed. What they care about is the deal. Once they have transferred the arms and received the money – Israel can do what it wants. With the Russians, the rules of the game are clear. On the other hand, the American government, our strategic partner, is revealed as unreliable.

And perhaps the American leak has to do with Israel’s successful test-firing of a propulsion system of a long-range ballistic missile? Both reports include a game of hidden messages and psychological warfare.

Friday’s test is part of a series of tests on the missile and propulsion system which have been taking place for a while now. When Israel wants to conceal its missile tests, it knows how to do it. On Friday it had an interest in publishing the test’s success. The message is clear: Let no one have any illusions – the cuts in the defense budget are unrelated to the State of Israel’s strategic abilities.

One the contrary, when it comes to its long arm, Israel has no intention of saving a penny. A ballistic missile with a propulsion system like the one tested on Friday could accurately place a satellite in space and could also accurately lead a lethal warhead as well.

There is no better “promo” for renewing the campaign against Iran than a successful ballistic missile test. The Israeli government is opening the Iran festival these days in light of the option that Rohani’s presidency, which begins this coming month, will reduce the global pressure on Tehran.

The Israeli message is clear: We have the ability to act on our own. Experience shows that the Americans take Israel’s threats seriously only when it demonstrates concrete military abilities. So could it be that this test irritated several Pentagon officials, who decided to “spoil things” for Israel on other fronts?

Washington’s push against Egyptian, Israeli go-it-alone military steps. US marines deployed off Suez, Sinai.

USS Kearsage, USS San Antonio opposite Egypt

The Obama administration is signifying its strong disapproval of Israel and Egypt taking matters in their own hands in the last two weeks, debkafile’s military and Washington sources report: Israel was accused of independent military action against Syria, and the Egyptian army of persecuting the Muslim Brotherhood after deposing President Mohamed Morsi.

Washington is also highly displeased with the campaign the Egyptian army launched after the coup, with Israel’s active support, to root out the Islamist terror blighting the Sinai Peninsula. US warships and marines are now parked off Egypt’s Red sea coast as a deterrent to the generals in Cairo.

For whipping Israeli into line, the administration used another method, i.e., Pentagon leaks naming Israeli air strikes as responsible for the explosions at the Syrian weapons depot outside the port town of Latakia on July 5, which demolished a fresh stock of Russian Yakhont (NATO codenamed SS-N-26) shore-to-ship missiles along with their advanced radar.
Although CNN ran this leak Friday, July 7, sourcing it to three separate unnamed US officials, the New York Times repeated the story Saturday and it was picked up by more US media for the third day running on Sunday.

Israel declined to comment on the report.
This over-exposure of alleged Israeli culpability certainly risked prodding Russian President Vladimir Putin and the Syrian ruler Bashar Assad into retaliating for the Latakia bombardment.
Our sources find a second US motive behind this tactic  – this one relating to the standoff between Washington and Moscow over Edward Snowden, who has been holed up for three weeks in a hotel in the transit area of Moscow international airport tin defiance of US demands for his extradition to face trial for espionae.

Putin has steadily refused to hand him over to America.

The idea in Washington was to put the Russian president’s credibility on the line and embarrass him by showing Moscow as having “lost” a large consignment of Russian missiles for Syria.
When Putin appeared inclined to offer the young American political asylum, Washington seems have decided to use the Latakia incident to apply the screws and, at the same time, teach him a lesson: If the Russians want Washington to keep the Israeli military on a leash, they must stop disregarding US views on the Syrian question and start playing ball with Obama.

For teaching the Egyptian generals a lesson, the administration resorted to tangible military steps: two amphibious assault ships carrying 2,600 Marines were moved to the southern Egyptian Red Sea coast.
Gen. James Amos, commandant of the Marine Corps, reported Thursday that the huge USS Kearsarge (1,800 Marines) and the USS San Antonio (with 800 Marines) had “moved up into the Red Sea and parked off Egypt,” a couple of nights ago, “because we don’t know what’s going to happen.”
debkafile’s military sources report that the two vessels also carry a fleet of helicopters for ferrying the Marines to distant ground arenas.
The US has placed additional Marine units at Signonella base in southern Italy and Moron in Spain on the alert with orders to be ready to move at 60 minutes’ notice.

To calm the tension, the US Embassy in Egypt said on its website Saturday: “We deny false claims in the Egyptian press that US naval ships are in the vicinity of the Arabian Peninsula and the Suez Canal to militarily invade Egypt.”

According to our sources, the US flotilla was brought in to warn Egyptian strongman Gen. Abdel Fattah al-Sisi and his generals that if they took their persecution of the Muslim Brotherhood too far, American Marines stood ready to step in.
They are also on hand for two additional contingencies:

1.  Should shipping through one of the world’s major world arteries, the Suez Canal, be imperiled  – as in case of sabotage by the Muslim Brotherhood or the armed Salafists of Sinai, a menace raised repeatedly by debkafile – the US military would be there to take charge of securing international shipping in the waterway.
2. The US maintains 1,000 army personnel in Sinai, most members of the 1st Cavalry Division, as part of the multinational force which monitors the 1979 Egyptian-Israel peace treaty provisions. The Obama administration is keeping a close eye on the mounting Islamist violence in the peninsula and the Egyptian military campaign which was mounted, in close intelligence cooperation with Israel and the IDF, against two terrorist elements –the armed Salafist Bedouin associated with al Qaeda and the Palestinian Hamas of Gaza, whose operations have spilled out into Sinai.

US strategists see the fighting in Sinai escalating and spreading and allow that American military intervention may be called for – especially if US MFO service personnel are in harm’s way.

US points finger, but Syria denies Israel involved in arms depot strike | The Times of Israel.

Damascus officials rebuff American officials’ claims that Israeli warplanes hit advanced Russian-made missiles

A Yakhont missile at a Russian air show in 1997 (photo credit: CC BY-SA, JNO, Wikimedia Commons)

Syrian officials on Saturday denied reports that Israel had been behind an attack on an arms depot in Latakia a week ago.

The denial followed the weekend confirmation by three unidentified US officials that Israeli warplanes had targeted advanced Russian-made anti-ship missiles in the coastal area on July 5. The comments to CNN seemingly confirmed similar reports in the Arab press.

Early Sunday, The New York Times also reported that Israeli planes had targeted the facility, citing unnamed American officials.

On Saturday, Iranian Arab-language news outlet Al-Alam reported that Damascus was denying Israeli involvement in the attack, citing Syrian officials.

Damascus had blamed a technical error for the blasts, which left several soldiers dead.

Britain’s Sunday Times, citing unnamed “Middle East intelligence sources” reported that the attack was carried out by an Israeli Dolphin-class submarine, with coordination from Washington.

Before and after satellite photos of the area published by the Israel Defense website over the weekend appear to show several arms sites damaged by airstrikes, with a warehouse also appearing to have taken a direct hit.

The Free Syrian Army’s spokesman Qassem Saadeddine told Reuters on Tuesday that the rebel army’s intelligence network had identified newly supplied, Russian Yakhont missiles being stored at the Syrian naval base at Safira, and that the strike, which was not carried out by his men, was of a military scale.

“It was not the FSA that targeted this,” Saadeddine said. The attack, he elaborated, was carried out “either by air raid or long-range missiles fired from boats in the Mediterranean.”

Israel has declined to comment on the strike. Defense Minister Moshe Ya’alon brushed aside a reporter’s question about the attack in the port city with this statement: “There is an attack here, an explosion there, various versions; in any event, in the Middle East it is usually we who are blamed.”

Israel’s stated policy is to not allow advanced weapons from falling into the hands of Hezbollah, and it has reportedly already carried out at least three airstrikes this year on convoys carrying sophisticated weapons from Syria to Lebanon, once in January and twice more in May.

In all cases Pentagon officials later said Israel was behind the attacks, although no Israeli officials had confirmed it.

A former Israeli defense official did, however, confirm to Reuters that Yakhont missiles, capable of paralyzing Israeli maritime traffic along the Lebanon coast and imperiling Israel’s natural gas platforms, were in fact kept at that base near Latakia.

Netanyahu, trying to re-focus world’s attention on Iran, tells cabinet sanctions need to be stepped up | JPost | Israel News.

‘US to step up pressure on Iran, seek direct talks’ | The Times of Israel.

Washington wishes to reassure Israel in wake of Rouhani’s election, but also wants to sound out president-elect face to face, reports say

Iranian nuclear facility (photo credit: CC-BY nanking2010/Wikipedia)

The US plans to up the pressure on Iran over its renegade nuclear program in the wake of the recent election of relative moderate Hassan Rouhani as president, and at the same time is seeking to enter into direct talks with the Islamic Republic to on the issue, according to recent reports.

Immediately after Rouhani was elected on June 14, US officials held a series of discussions about Iran with aides to Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, assuring Israel that economic sanctions and diplomatic pressure would not be relaxed, Haaretz reported on Sunday, citing senior US officials with knowledge of the talks.

Because Rouhani “looks friendlier toward the West” than his predecessor Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, Israel was afraid that “pressure on Iran will go down,” an anonymous official was quoted as saying. “It’s legitimate to be concerned, but we have told the Israelis we intend to judge the Iranians according to their actions and not according to their words. We need to see a meaningful change in the Iranian attitude… We will not ease the sanctions if Iran does not take action to stop 20 percent enrichment.”

Uranium enriched to 20 percent is necessary for nuclear weapons production, and Iran’s continuing program to enrich the radioactive material to this level has been a key sticking point in negotiations. The same US official said that sanctions would actually be increased and that the dire economic conditions that have been created in Iran were a key factor in Rouhani’s surprise electoral victory.

At the same time, the US is seeking to open direct talks with Iran, according to US sources cited by the Wall Street Journal.

The Obama administration is “eager to quickly test” Rouhani, who, despite some hard-line statements, has suggested through intermediaries that he seeks more transparency for Iran’s nuclear program and would be more open to international discussions and relations with the West than his predecessor, Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, Friday’s report said.

“We are open to direct talks, and we want to reinforce this in any way [we can],” a senior US official said, adding that the administration sees “words that indicate Iran might be going in a different direction.”

A meeting of the P5+1 negotiating countries (the United States, Russia, China, United Kingdom, France and Germany) is scheduled for Tuesday in Brussels to map out the countries’ diplomatic approach for the near future. The Western countries hope to schedule a new round of nuclear talks with Iran for September.

Meanwhile, Israel is planning to pressure the US to take a tougher stance with Iran because the government feels that the window for successful military action by Israel against Iran’s nuclear facilities could close as early as this winter, according to a report Friday on Channel 2.

Netanyahu is about to launch a fresh effort at “public diplomacy,” aimed at securing “increased pressure on Iran,” led by the US, notably including the revival of “a real military threat” if the Iranians don’t halt their nuclear drive, the TV report said.

If the prime minister’s effort fails, “Netanyahu will have to make a decision in the next few months” over “whether to attack Iran by winter.” The report stressed considerable support for a resort to military force within the cabinet, and concluded, “This could happen.”

Rouhani is scheduled to assume the Iranian presidency on August 3.

Report: Israel Struck in Syria from the Sea – Middle East – News – Israel National News.

Israeli navy Dolphin-class submarine

Flash 90

The recent strike on an arms depot in Latakia was a naval intervention and not an airstrike, Middle East intelligence sources told the Sunday Times newspaper.

According to the report, the attack was carried out using a Dolphin class submarine and was well-coordinated with the United States administration. If the report is correct, it would be Israel’s first naval intervention in Syria.

The officials also told the Sunday Times that the attack targeted 50 Russian-made Yakhont anti-ship missiles.

Israel has purchased five Dolphin class submarines from Germany. Reports last year indicated that missiles with nuclear warheads were deployed on three of the submarines.

On Friday, officials told CNN that the series of explosions at Latakia port on July 5 were the result of airstrikes by Israeli warplanes.

The Syrian rebels said on Tuesday that “foreign forces” had destroyed advanced Russian anti-ship missiles in Latakia, hinting that Israel may have been behind the attack.

Qassem Saadeddine, a spokesman for the Free Syrian Army’s Supreme Military Council, said that the rebels’ intelligence network had identified newly supplied Russian Yakhont missiles being stored in the depots that were hit.

“It was not the FSA that targeted this,” Saadeddine said. “It is not an attack that was carried out by rebels.

“This attack was either by air raid or long-range missiles fired from boats in the Mediterranean,” he added.

Rebels described hearing and seeing huge blasts, the ferocity of which, they said, was beyond the firepower available to them but consistent with that of a modern military force like Israel’s.

Israel has not officially commented on the incident. Defense Minister Moshe Ya’alon said on Tuesday that Israel does not interfere in the affairs of neighboring countries, but it does act when its red lines are crossed. Some interpreted these remarks as a hint that Israel may have been involved in a strike in Syria.

“We’ve established red lines regarding our interests and we maintain them. Whenever there is an explosion or attack over there, the Middle East blames us anyway,” Ya’alon said vaguely.

Meanwhile, an official Syrian source denied Saturday evening that the explosions were the result of an Israeli attack.

Al Ahlam, an Iranian television channel, quoted an official from Bashar Al-Assad’s government who denied that Israel had bombed the harbor at Latakia.

Iranian report: Syrian officials deny Israeli attack in Latakia – Israel News, Ynetnews.

( “Elephant?  What elephant?” – JW )

Iranian television channel Al-Alam reported that official Syrian sources have denied the CNN report that the Israeli Air Force was behind the strike in Latakia eight days ago.

CNN reported on Friday that American sources have confirmed that the attack in Latakia was perpetrated by IAF planes, targeting advanced Yakhont missiles. (Roi Kais)