WarSclerotic

Is Washington backing the Brotherhood? – Alarabiya.net English | Front Page.

( A fascinating analysis of the Obama administration’s Middle East policy.  It wants to be friendly but can’t help sound patronizing.  I wish Israel was in a position to be as equally honest and open about the US. – JW )

Abdulrahman al-Rashed

For a year now there has been talk of a conspiracy that Egyptian president Mohammed Mursi’s rise to power was planned overnight in Washington. Those spreading this conspiracy based it on a report by the New York Times. The report alleges that U.S. president Barack Obama, after advising Hosni Mubarak to step down in the end of January 2011, said during a secret meeting that he would support the Muslim Brotherhood in Egypt.

Of course, both the Brotherhood and their opponents claim that their rivals are a product of the Americans. The youths of Tahrir Square and the leftists accuse the White House of giving a helping hand to the Brotherhood in the elections and of wanting the Brotherhood’s return to power. In turn, the Brotherhood claims that President Barack Obama is behind the coup against it.

Stuck in the middle?

This is part of the propaganda war between the two parties sparring in Egypt. The U.S. administration says it is caught in the middle of this dispute. But it does seem to tend to take the Brotherhood’s side, requesting that the ousted Mursi be released. It also does not oppose his remaining president until the end of his presidential term, while simultaneously reminding him that democracy is not only about elections.

Washington’s stance reveals that it prefers to deal with the Brotherhood because the U.S. believes that the Islamists proved their credibility on the level of respecting international agreements since the Islamist group upheld the Camp David Accords, deterred jihadist groups in Sinai, restrained Hamas and destroyed its tunnels. This positive performance of Mursi’s cabinet was favored by the Americans who considered that their experience with the Brotherhood was the only successful one with an Islamist group in the region, compared to their failed history with the Iranian regime and Hamas. As for Turkey, the Americans do not consider it to be an Islamic regime but rather a secular one.

The problem of academic analysis in Washington is that it collects all similarities in one basket, and then confuses its analyses. Washington thinks that supporting a Sunni Mohammad Mursi in Egypt balances its support of the Shiite Nuri al-Maliki in Iraq, who like Mursi came to power through elections. This leads the American government to think that it has a balanced relation with Muslims of both sects. The problem is that the result is identical, and identically negative. Democracy in both countries, Iraq and Egypt, produced two religious fascist groups. Mursi, like Maliki, does not respect the democratic system that brought him to power.

The attempt to engineer regimes for the region by excluding the military and including religious dictators or preferring certain groups over others will not result in stability but in more tension. And above all, the plan will not succeed. Proof of that is the Americans’ sympathy with the Shiite religious opposition movement in Bahrain, which failed. Preferring Egypt’s Brotherhood will fail to bring the Brotherhood back because it will clash with local and regional disputes which the Americans don’t have enough capability to influence.

If Egyptian political parties accept the Brotherhood’s return to politics, they will place many obstructions to prevent the Brotherhood from returning to governance. Activists in Egypt believe they have granted the Brotherhood its chance. But instead of democratically practicing governance, the Brotherhood attempted to take over everything. The Brotherhood proved that it is a fascist movement that only believes in democracy as a ladder to completely seize power and not as a means towards participation and a peaceful devolution of power. The Americans’ best option is to keep away from Cairo’s rebellious Squares. The Egyptians know better about their own affairs. Whoever emerges victorious will not find an alternative for the U.S. as a strategic ally.

This article was first published in Asharq al-Awsat on July 15, 2013

Abdulrahman al-Rashed is the General Manager of Al Arabiya News Channel. A veteran and internationally acclaimed journalist, he is a former editor-in-chief of the London-based leading Arab daily Asharq al-Awsat, where he still regularly writes a political column. He has also served as the editor of Asharq al-Awsat’s sister publication, al-Majalla. Throughout his career, Rashed has interviewed several world leaders, with his articles garnering worldwide recognition, and he has successfully led Al Arabiya to the highly regarded, thriving and influential position it is in today.

Hamas manufacturing rockets that threaten Tel Aviv | The Times of Israel.

Terror organization no longer relying on smuggled weapons, developing its own technology to strike at Israel’s center

A volley of rockets fired from the Gaza Strip on November 15, 2012. (photo credit: Edi Israel/Flash90)

Hamas has developed the ability to locally manufacture rockets with the range to hit Israel’s heartland, including Tel Aviv, IDF Chief of Staff Benny Gantz said on Monday.

Speaking to a joint conference of the Defense Ministry and the Manufacturers Association of Israel, Gantz explained that the terror organization, which controls the Gaza Strip, is producing its own 200 millimeter caliber missiles, known as the M-75, which can strike to about 80 kilometers (50 miles).

“The Gaza Strip is relatively quiet after [November’s Operation] Pillar of Defense. The level of deterrent is very high,” Gantz said. “However, the process of build-up has not stopped. Whether it is smuggling activities — which have been slightly reduced — or the local manufacture that is developing all over that area.”

A number of M-75 rockets, based on Iranian technology, were fired at Tel Aviv and Jerusalem during Pillar of Defense, which was launched by Israel to halt persistent rocket fire against towns near the Gaza border. Most of the missiles were shot down by Israel’s Iron Dome interceptor.

The technology was relatively new at the time, but Gantz said the Strip had continued to develop its manufacturing of the rocket.

The rocket became something of a rallying point for Gazans, whose missile range had been limited to Israel’s south in previous engagements. Visiting the Strip after a ceasefire, Hamas political chief Khaled Mashaal popped out of a model of the rocket on a stage.

Gantz also commented on the deteriorating situation in Sinai, where terrorists killed three people in an attack on a bus on Sunday.

“In Sinai we can see terror organizations increasingly established, and we are following that story on a daily basis because things are happening there all the time that are certainly of interest to us,” Gantz said.

Last month a barrage of six rockets were fired out of Gaza at southern Israel. Four landed in open areas and two were shot down by the Iron Dome system. The rockets were thought to be fired by Islamic Jihad, which is competing with Hamas for control of the Strip.

US outraged after Israel backs out of terror suit – Israel News, Ynetnews.

Congress, White House angry at Israel for decision to back out of trial against Bank of China for involvement in laundering of money for Hamas, Islamic Jihad. The reason: China conditioned Netanyahu’s state visit on Israeli promise not to testify in trial. Now, US threatening to subpoena Ambassador Oren

Shimon Shiffer

Israeli Ambassador to the US Michael Oren was called back to Israel to take part in an emergency meeting convened this weekend by Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu so that Oren could pass on  messages sent by the US administration and Congress in the wake of tensions between the two countries.

The tensions and lightening visit stem from the US’s outrage at Israel’s decision to back out of their commitment to a terror prosecution involving a Chinese bank allegedly laundering monies for Hamas so that Netanyahu and his family could embark on their State visit to the country last May.

This weekend Nahum Barnea and Shimon Shiffer from Yedioth Ahronoth broke the story and revealed that the Chinese government threatened to cancel Netanyahu’s visit if Israel refused to promise that senior Israeli defense officials would refrain from testifying against the Bank of China in a federal court trial currently underway in New York.

According to the report, China conditioned Netanyahu’s visit on the demand the officials retract their promise to testify in the trial being led by the family of terror victim.

PM, wife Sara on Great Wall (Photo: Avi Ohayon, GPO)

The case itself is a civil suit filed by Sheryl and Yekutiel Wultz from Florida, whose son Daniel was killed in terror attack in Tel Aviv in 2006 when he was only 16 years old.

According to the suit, the money used by Hamas to undertake the terror attack reached the terrorist group through a money laundering scheme run the Chinese bank in which some $6 million were laundered through trade.

The story has invoked the rage of the White House, a number of US congressmen and Jewish organizations active in the US who were flabbergasted by the decision to back out of a legal battle against the funding of international terror only in an attempt to prevent harm from coming to Netanyahu’s visit.

Mr. Terror

On Sunday, during the meeting called by Netanyahu, Oren was meant to stress to the additional participants – among them ambassador designate Ron Dermer – that the Americans view with severity Israel’s decision to cave into China’s pressure and prevent testimonies which would legally link Hamas and the Islamic Jihad to the Bank of China.

Oren was also to convey the American shock that Netanyahu, who the Americans call “Mr. Terror” for his zero tolerance approach to terror, would take such decision.

Congress, Oren was indented to say, sees the move as nothing short of betrayal by Israel of the US, both in regards to the international war on terror and in regards to the struggle for hegemonic control raging between the West and the rising eastern powerhouse.

The crux of Oren’s mission was to inform the Israel administration of the US’s intent on advancing legal procedures against the Bank of China; to inform them that if the security officials fail to show up in court they would be subpoenaed; and additional subpoenas would also be filed against Oren, Dermer and National Security Adviser Yaakov Amidror.

In addition to the suit filed by the Wultz family, the Bank of China also faces a lawsuit by Attorney Nitsana Darshan-Leitner of the Shurat HaDin Israel Law Center, representing 22 Israel families – the relatives of the victims of the suicide bombing in an Eilat bakery as well the Mercaz Harav shooting – that is being discussed instate courts throughout the US.

According to Darshan-Leitner, these cases are also structured around the testimonies of security officials and could fail should the officials fail to testify.

The Prime Minister’s Office did not respond to the story Sunday evening.

Russian Military on Alert After Suspected Israeli Airstrike Destroys Russian Missiles in Syria | Las Vegas Guardian Express.

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Tens of thousands of Russian troops have been placed on alert after a suspected Israeli airstrike destroyed advanced, Russian missiles recently delivered to Syria.

Last week, in the Syrian port city of Latakia, several pre-dawn explosions were reported to have destroyed advanced Russian missiles that had recently arrived and were being temporarily stored at the port. A spokesman for the opposition Free Syrian Army, describing the July 5 attack, said Tuesday that “It was not the FSA that targeted this. It is not an attack that was carried out by rebels.” The FSA spokesman, Qassem Saadeddine, went on to say “This attack was either by air raid or long-range missiles fired from boats in the Mediterranean.” The suggestion is that Israel was behind the attack. The Russian-made Yakhont anti-ship missiles, it is speculated, could have been considered a threat to Israel’s naval forces.

Israel has not commented on the attack. In May, Israeli Defense Minister Moshe Yaalon commented that Israel “will know what to do” in the event that Russian missiles were delivered to Syria. Israel has carried out previous airstrikes in Syria, including and attack upon vehicles carrying weapons towards the Lebanese border.

In a July 13 report from the official Russian news agency, ITAR-TASS, The Russian Defense Ministry has announced what is being described as  “the most ambitious [check alert] in the history of post-Soviet test readiness.” A check alert, according to the Defense Ministry is a mobilization for exercises designed “to test the readiness of units to perform assigned tasks, and assessment of the level of training of personnel, staffing and technical readiness units and formations with arms and military equipment.” The alert, according to the ITAR-TASS report, involves more than 80,000 troops, around a thousand tanks and armored personnel carriers, some 130 aircraft and 70 naval vessels.

This massive military alert is seen as a response to the disclosure Friday to CNN, by unnamed US officials, that the destruction of the Russian missiles in Syria was a result of Israeli airstrikes.

The United States government has previously indicated its desire to provide the rebels in Syria with weapons and other military assistance. Meanwhile, both the rebels and pro-government forces in Syria have obtained American weapons – likely via Iraq.

The Syrian army – aided by Iran and Lebanese-based Hezbollah, continues to make slow progress in rolling back rebel gains. FSA pockets of resistance in the city of Homs continue to struggle against a tightening siege by forces loyal to Syrian President Bashar-al-Assad. This latest suspected Israeli airstrike and Russian military alert signals a growing danger that the more than two-year-old Syrian conflict will escalate into a wider, regional conflict.

Graham J Noble

Source

Israel Hayom | US fears Iran will develop a nuclear bomb ‘under the radar’.

Western source tells Israel Hayom Washington is no longer sure it will know ahead of time when Iran reaches military-grade nuclear capability • PM Netanyahu urges West not to be complacent, says President-elect Rouhani is “a wolf in sheep’s clothing.”

The Explosions in Latakia: Before and After.

Ronen Solomon

13/7/2013

Nine days after reports of explosions near the Syrian city of Latakia, Israel Channel 2 News and IsraelDefense have published photos of the area before and after the mysterious explosion. The publication of these photos comes after the TV network CNN claimed over the weekend that according to US sources, Israel was behind the attack.

According to several Syrian opposition websites, the attack took place in the area of the village of Samiyah on the way from the port city of Latakia to Al Haffah – where a military complex containing a network of 20 bunkers and an isolated area with a warehouse stretching across 80 meters is located.

Intelligence researcher Ronen Solomon obtained satellite photography of the same area, and an examination of the satellite photography and comparison to the photos taken before the supposed date of the attack yields several findings.

A general view:

Area A: Two hangars, including a parking lot for cargo towers located near the entrance to the military complex on the main road between Latakia and Al-Haffah.
Area B: A network of padded ammunition warehouses.
Area C: A central structure with unclear characteristics.

Photography analysis:

Area A: Two hangars, including a parking lot for cargo towers, were constructed in the past two years, located near the entrance to the military complex on the main road between Latakia and Al-Haffah.

Area A: In parallel to the main road, a convoy of about six cargo transporters was observed in the satellite photo from July 7 on the service path leading to the parking area (no evidence as to damage).

Area B: About 20 isolated storage warehouses. Based on the comparison of the satellite photography, impact can be identified with certainty at five warehouses. This figure corresponds with the testimonies gathered in Syria and presented on various websites.

Area C: A large structure of unclear purpose can be identified, which based on the comparison of the satellite photography, resembles the results of the bombing of the Syrian reactor in 2007.

A large cargo terminal of sorts was constructed at the entrance to the ammunition complex in the past two years, from which convoys of vehicles have arrived and departed, as can be seen on the photography from July 7. From an analysis of the satellite photography from the past few years and from the recent period, it seems that the terminal itself, near the main road, was not hit.

The main damage is visible in the photo of the warehouse that collapsed inwards after being hit, and vehicles can be seen in the July 7 photo, including a crane, apparently carrying out evacuation activities.

Several bunkers that were hit can be discerned in another photo. It is unclear if they sustained a direct hit or, as was reported, exploded due to secondary damage caused from damage to the main warehouse, which is located nearby.

According to the testimonies that have been gathered regarding the attack in the area of Latakia, it is possible that the ammunition warehouse was just one of several arenas. An additional report referred to a strike in the area of the Syrian naval base north of Latakia, which is used for deploying two Bastion batteries used to launch Yakhont missiles, and it is possible that they were also an attack objective.

Report: Strike on Syria carried out from Turkish base – Israel News, Ynetnews.

( My read: Disinfo from Russia to sew discord among US allies after being humiliated by the US leak. – JW )

Russia’s RT network reports Israeli planes on mission to bomb Syrian weapons facility left military base in Turkey and approached Latakia from the sea to avoid flying over Syrian airspace

Ynet

Are Israel and Turkey cooperating against Bashar Assad‘s regime? The English-language Russian news website RT reported Monday that Israel used a Turkish military base to launch one of its recent airstrikes against Syria from the sea.

The report apparently refers to the alleged IAF strike on a weapons factory in the Syrian port city of Latakia.

“Our source is telling us that Israeli planes left a military base inside Turkey and approached Latakia from the sea to make sure that they stayed out of Syrian airspace so that they cannot become a legitimate target for the Syrian air force,” RT’s Paula Slier reported.

Relations between Israel and Turkey were recently restored after a major diplomatic crisis broke out following the IDF raid on a Turkish flotilla vessel in May 2010. US President Barack Obama brokered talks between Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and Turkish PM Recep Tayyip Erdogan during his trip to Israel last March.

Turkey has been at odds with Syria since the outbreak of the civil war two years ago and Ankara has come out fiercely against Bashar Assad’s regime.

On Sunday, the Sunday Times reported the Latakia attack was carried out by an Israeli Dolphin class submarine which fired a cruise missile from the sea, according to intelligence source in the Middle East.

According to the British newspaper, the target was a consignment of 50 Russian-made Yakhont P-800 anti-ship missiles delivered to President Bashar Assad’s armed forces this year.

The Times reported that the attack is understood to have been closely coordinated with Washington, which had earlier signaled to Moscow its frustration at the missiles shipment.

On Saturday, CNN reported that Israel was behind last week’s strike in Latakia. According to sources, the attack was carried out by IAF planes, targeting Yakhont missiles.

The sources added that Israel launched the July 5 strike in order to hit the Russian-made missiles, which Israel believed pose a threat to its forces.

Many casualties in surging Egyptian army-Islamist Sinai hostilities. Two flashpoints near Israeli border.

Egyptian military command post in Sinai

The last ten days have seen dozens killed and hundreds wounded in battles between Egyptian security forces and a coalition of increasingly aggressive Islamist Salafists and Palestinian Hamas and Jihad Islami fighters, debkafile’s military and intelligence sources report. The Egyptian military has clamped a news blackout on the Sinai battlefield.

In the latest incident Monday, July 15, rocket-propelled grenades blew up a bus carrying workmen to the Multinational Force-MFO based at Al Gora near the North Sinai town of El Arish. According to official sources, three of the passengers were killed and 17 injured. Unofficial estimates were as high as 13-20 dead. The attackers shouted Allahu Akbar when the bus blew up.

debkafile reports that further, unknown numbers of Egyptian soldiers and Islamist assailants were killed in a gunfight nearby. The Salafists were trying to plant explosives along the road connecting the town of Sheih Zweid to the MFO encampment. Many of them died when gunshots detonated the explosives they were holding.

Our sources disclose that since the fall of the Muslim Brotherhood in Cairo on July 3, Egyptian troops confront surging Islamist violence at four current flashpoints in Sinai, two near the Israeli border.

One is the Rafah area south of the Gaza Strip where the Salafists are tackling Egyptian forces engaged in blocking the smuggling tunnels running contraband into the Palestinian enclave.
The commander of Egypt’s Second Army, Gen. Ahmed Wasfi, is convinced by incoming intelligence that the Muslim Brotherhood unseated two weeks ago in Cairo and its Libyan allies are conniving with the Salafist Bedouin of Sinai and the Palestinian Hamas and Jihad Islami of the Gaza Strip to stage a violent uprising against the Egyptian army and security forces in Sinai.

The events of the past 24 hours confirm him in this conviction. Saturday, July 13, the Egyptian army intercepted and destroyed three arms convoys crossing from Libya into Egypt on their way to the Gaza Strip. The next day, armed Salafists conducted a multiple onslaught on Egyptian Border Police camps, checkpoints and patrols opposite the Israel region of Halutza.

The residents of Bnei Netzarim, Naveh, Yevul, Dekel, Avshalom and Sdeh Avraham were told to stay in protected areas and local security squads placed on alert, in case the Salafist assailants stormed across the border to attack Israeli targets.

Overnight, the IDF bolstered military units in the area. In the process, an Israeli Hermes 450 drone crashed while on surveillance duty over the embattled area. The Israeli Air Force reported that a technical fault caused the drone to fly out of control.
All Sunday, the Egyptian army sent extra forces to bolster the engineering units engaged in destroying the smuggling tunnels carrying arms, fighters and consumer goods into the Gaza Strip for more than a decade, which provided the Hamas-ruled regime with a major source of revenue. Orders from the high command in Cairo were to step up the pressure on Hamas and Jihad Islami. And so, the Egyptian army targeted a number of tunnels on the Rafah border used to smuggle fuel to Gaza. Without gas, their combat mobility will be sharply reduced.

Army sources said that 80 percent of all tunnels have been demolished, amounting to about 805 tunnels. Bulldozers were used to remove several machines pumping fuel into the Gaza Strip through the tunnels.

Gaza Prime Minister Ismail Haniyeh tried appealing to Egyptian intelligence chiefs in Cairo to stop the operation. He was fobbed off with junior officers who said they were not competent to make decisions in the matter and would pass his request to higher authority.
The El Arish area has become the most dangerous of all the four flashpoints: There, the heavily concentrated Egyptian force is battered by constant assaults. They are hemmed in by thousands of Salafist gunmen. Any officer, soldier or vehicle trying to exit their fortified compound runs the gauntlet of roadside bombs, anti-tank weapons, hand grenades and heavy machine gun fire.
Fighting is raging at two more locations: the central mountains of Jabel Halal and along the Egyptian-Israeli border opposite Israel’s southern air base of Ovda.