WarSclerotic

Israel strengthens Syria border with an eye on Hezbollah – Israel News, Ynetnews.

Jewish state worried Hezbollah making initial preparations for future confrontation on new Golan front. Source: We know jihadi rebels busy now but once Syria war ends they will turn their guns on us

Reuters

Israel is bolstering its forces on the once-quiet frontier with Syria where it believes Lebanese Hezbollah militants are preparing for the day when they could fight Israel.

Syria’s civil war has brought an end to decades of calm on the Golan Heights, a strip of land which Israel captured in the 1967 Middle East war. Battles between rebels fighting against President Bashar Assad’s forces in Syrian villages nearby are being watched intensely by Israel’s military.

Hezbollah, which is also backed by Iran, has sent thousands of its own fighters to combat Syrian rebels, according to Israeli and Western estimates.

Israel last fought Hezbollah in a 2006 Lebanon war and still closely monitors the Lebanese border. Israel says Hezbollah has tens of thousands of rockets in its south Lebanon stronghold.

The Jewish state is worried Hezbollah is making initial preparations for future confrontation with it on a new front with Syria and is accruing valuable combat experience on the Syrian battlefield.

An Israeli source said the group is gathering intelligence on Israel’s deployment on the strategic Golan plateau.

“It is not at an alarming level now but we understand their intentions,” said the source, who asked not to be identified because of the sensitivity of the security and political situation in the area.

Car bomb explosion in Beirut, Tuesday (Photo: EPA)

Hezbollah’s leader, Hassan Nasrallah, threatened in May to turn the Golan into a new front against Israel.

“Since Nasrallah’s threat, more (Israeli) army companies have been sent up, more tanks,” an Israeli military source at the Booster military outpost on the Golan.

“Hezbollah has an intelligence presence (in the Golan) that we know of.”

Booster is about two kilometers (one mile) from a disengagement line set after Israel and Syria fought on the Golan in 1973 and Israeli tanks have just moved back into the position for the first time since then.

Daytime is peaceful on the rocky outcrop that gives a turret-top view of Syrian villages below, with birdsong echoing across sun-scorched fields. That changes at nightfall.

“Every night there is fighting (in the villages across the frontier), explosions and shooting all through the night. This is the hottest spot on the Golan Heights,” Shilo said. “As far as we’re concerned, any bullet that crosses over is intentional.”

Nasrallah (L) with Assad and Ahmadinejad (Archive photo: AP)

A UN observer force monitors the area of separation between Syrian and Israeli forces, a narrow strip of land running 70 km (45 miles) from Mount Hermon on the Lebanese border to the Yarmouk River frontier with Jordan.

The observers have been caught in the middle of fighting between Syrian troops and rebels. Stray shells and bullets have landed on the Israeli-controlled side of the Golan, and Israeli troops have fired into Syria in response.

Beirut residents celebrate Hezbollah success in Syria

The rebels have detained peacekeepers on several different occasions before releasing them. Japan and Croatia have withdrawn troops due to the violence as has Austria with the gap being filled by soldiers from Fiji.

Among the rebels fighting the Syrian army are jihadi and Qaeda-linked groups, which Israel says are also a future threat to the Jewish state.

“We know they are busy now but once it ends they will turn their guns on us,” said the military source.

“We have learnt our lessons from Sinai,” the source said, referring to the Egyptian peninsula where Islamist militants have launched attacks on Egyptian soldiers and across the border at Israel amid deepening turmoil in Egypt.

“We’re not waiting for an attack (from Syria). We’re building the border fence, we have sent up tanks, more regiments, field intelligence … and increased observations.”

Israel is particularly worried that Hezbollah will get hold of advanced weapon systems or chemical arms in Syria. Israel has struck inside Syria at least three times in the past few months against what it believed to be anti-aircraft and advanced ground missiles destined for the group.

Foreign forces destroyed advanced Russian anti-ship missiles in Syria last week, rebels said on Tuesday – a disclosure that appeared to point to an Israeli raid. Israel has not confirmed or denied involvement.

The army has also deployed a high-tech surveillance system along the Syria front, which immediately zeroes in on any suspicious movements approaching Israeli-held territory.

“It is critical for us to know who is sitting there – if it’s an Islamist jihadi or a rebel who just wants to defend his family,” the military source said.

In June, the Syrian army and Hezbollah captured the strategic Syrian town Qusair from rebel forces.

Israel watched closely and last month held a military drill that simulated taking over a northern Israeli town of Safed in preparation for possible conflict.

Israeli military sources on the Israel-Lebanon border said that despite its deep involvement in Syria, Hezbollah has not loosened its grip on the border area in south Lebanon.

“Hezbollah’s legitimacy in the Arab world is cracking over its involvement in Syria,” said one source on the Lebanon border. “But on the other hand, if they come under a lot of pressure they could choose to ignite the border.”

Israeli commanders have noticed that Hezbollah had taken down some of its flags, as well as those of Iran, that once hung proudly in the border villages, a sign it could be worried about its image.

IDF reinforces Golan border with eye on Hezbollah | JPost | Israel News.

An Israeli military source on Wednesday told Reuters that Israel is bolstering its forces on the once-quiet frontier with Syria where it believes Lebanese Hezbollah militants are preparing for the day when they could fight Israel.

The source said the group is gathering intelligence on Israel’s deployment on the strategic Golan plateau.

“It is not at an alarming level now but we understand their intentions,” said the source, who asked not to be identified because of the sensitivity of the security and political situation in the area.

Hezbollah’s leader, Hassan Nasrallah, threatened in May to turn the Golan into a new front against Israel.

“Since Nasrallah’s threat, more (Israeli) army companies have been sent up, more tanks,” an Israeli military source at the Booster military outpost on the Golan.

“Hezbollah has an intelligence presence (in the Golan) that we know of.”

IDF patrols on the Syrian and Lebanese borders       1 OF 4

REUTER/Baz Ratner 

IDF soldiers watch the border with Syria near the Quneitra border crossing between Israel and Syria.

Booster is about 2 km (1 mile) from a disengagement line set after Israel and Syria fought on the Golan in 1973 and Israeli tanks have just moved back into the position for the first time since then.

Daytime is peaceful on the rocky outcrop that gives a turret-top view of Syrian villages below, with birdsong echoing across sun-scorched fields. That changes at nightfall.

“Every night there is fighting (in the villages across the frontier), explosions and shooting all through the night. This is the hottest spot on the Golan Heights,” Shilo said. “As far as we’re concerned, any bullet that crosses over is intentional.”

A UN observer force monitors the area of separation between Syrian and Israeli forces, a narrow strip of land running 70 km (45 miles) from Mount Hermon on the Lebanese border to the Yarmouk River frontier with Jordan.

The observers have been caught in the middle of fighting between Syrian troops and rebels. Stray shells and bullets have landed on the Israeli-controlled side of the Golan, and Israeli troops have fired into Syria in response.

The rebels have detained peacekeepers on several different occasions before releasing them. Japan and Croatia have withdrawn troops due to the violence as has Austria with the gap being filled by soldiers from Fiji.

Among the rebels fighting the Syrian army are jihadi and Qaeda-linked groups, which Israel says are also a future threat to the Jewish state.

“We know they are busy now but once it ends they will turn their guns on us,” said the military source.

“We have learnt our lessons from Sinai,” the source said, referring to the Egyptian peninsula where Islamist militants have launched attacks on Egyptian soldiers and across the border at Israel amid deepening turmoil in Egypt.

“We’re not waiting for an attack (from Syria). We’re building the border fence, we have sent up tanks, more regiments, field intelligence … and increased observations.”

Israel is particularly worried that Hezbollah will get hold of advanced weapon systems or chemical arms in Syria. Israel has struck inside Syria at least three times in the past few months against what it believed to be anti-aircraft and advanced ground missiles destined for the group.

Foreign forces destroyed advanced Russian anti-ship missiles in Syria last week, rebels said on Tuesday – a disclosure that appeared to point to an Israeli raid. Israel has not confirmed or denied involvement.

The army has also deployed a high-tech surveillance system along the Syria front, which immediately zeroes in on any suspicious movements approaching Israeli-held territory.

“It is critical for us to know who is sitting there – if it’s an Islamist jihadi or a rebel who just wants to defend his family,” the military source said.

In June, the Syrian army and Hezbollah captured the strategic Syrian town Qusair from rebel forces.

Israel watched closely and last month held a military drill that simulated taking over a northern Israeli town of Safed in preparation for possible conflict.

Israeli military sources on the Israel-Lebanon border said that despite its deep involvement in Syria, Hezbollah has not loosened its grip on the border area in south Lebanon.

“Hezbollah’s legitimacy in the Arab world is cracking over its involvement in Syria,” said one source on the Lebanon border. “But on the other hand, if they come under a lot of pressure they could chose to ignite the border.”

Israeli commanders have noticed that Hezbollah had taken down some of its flags, as well as those of Iran, that once hung proudly in the border villages, a sign it could be worried about its image.

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Israel discusses Russian peacekeepers for Golan | ASHARQ AL-AWSAT.

Russian army S-300 air defense missile launchers drive in a street during a rehearsal for the Victory Day military parade which will take place at Moscow’s Red Square, Russia. (AP Photo/Alexander Zemlianichenko)

Moscow, Asharq Al-Awsat—The Israeli ambassador in Moscow said on Tuesday Israel was prepared to discuss the deployment of Russian peacekeepers in the occupied Golan Heights.

The comments were made while Israeli Justice Minister Tzipi Livni was holding talks with Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov in Moscow about its decision to sell S-300 air defense missiles to Syria.

Ambassador Dorit Golender said: “I think this issue [peacekeeping in the Golan Heights] will be the main point in the negotiations and if both parties reached agreement, then sending a peacekeepers to the Golan becomes possible. What is needed first is permission from the United Nations, and Israel is always open to resolutions in such issues.”

President Vladimir Putin said in June that Russia was prepared to send 380 peacekeepers to replace Austrian troops that were withdrawn by their government as the fighting in the country intensified. The United Nations rejected the offer, however, because the agreement reached after the 1973 war, stipulated that forces from the Security Council’s permanent members—the US, Russia, China, France and the UK—were not allowed in the Golan Heights.

The issue has become more urgent due to information reportedly received by Israel that Russia was planning to deliver the S-300 missiles to Syria within weeks. Russia assured Israel two months ago that it would not deliver the missiles until the middle of next year.

Livni’s office, however, has played down the importance of the visit, saying it was aimed at discussing security issues related to terrorism with her Russian counterpart. However, reports said Livni met Lavrov yesterday and discussed “sensitive security issues” and tried to persuade his government to cancel the missile transfer.

Israel newspaper Yedioth Ahronoth quoted unnamed senior Israeli military sources as saying that there were alternatives available within the missile agreement that can be implemented, which can satisfy Syria and not harm Israel.

These alternatives include the SA-22 and SA-17 anti-aircraft missiles, which and are capable of bringing down aircraft at low and medium altitudes. The modern S-300 missiles, which Syria bought a few years ago, are long-range missiles capable of bringing down aircraft at high altitudes and could theoretically hit targets in Israeli airspace from within Syrian territory.

Israel Hayom | Ahmadinejad: Most proud of my Holocaust denial.

Israel Hayom | Remains of rocket fired from Egypt found near Eilat.

Israel Hayom | Sunni revenge reaches Nasrallah.

Boaz Bismuth

Russian peacekeepers in the Golan Heights: A strategic move.

( Superb analysis.  I’m not sure he’s right about the US, but I hope that he is. – JW )

© Vladimir Vyatkin, RIA Novosti

Recently the Austrian authorities have declared their intention to withdraw (followed by Croatia, Canada and Japan) the country’s peacekeeping troops from the Golan Heights. In this regard Russian President Vladimir Putin has proposed to replace the Austrians by the Russian peacekeepers.

Valdaiclub.com interview with Alastair Crooke, British diplomat, the founder and director of the Conflicts Forum.

According to the Russian Minister of Foreign Affairs Sergei Lavrov, the final decision on the Russian peacekeepers` presence in the Golan Heights depends on the positions of Israel and Syria. Is the consent of Israel possible? What is the likely Syrian position on this issue?

We have to separate this by looking at the broader picture. We are in a period in the region where the stresses and strains, the tensions, are so taut, that any small thing could set off not just a localized conflagration, but something that could bring in external powers. It is indeed a region in which a small bushfire in once place or another could easily light something much bigger across the region.

So I think that what President Putin is suggesting has that in mind. It’s a strategic move. We know that there are various flash points, if you like, fault lines, across the region. And these are fault lines that really small groups can easily take advantage of. One of the fault lines is on the Golan, another is the Lebanese border with Israel, and there are others in the region. But what is so dangerous about all this is not that there is a strategic shift or that there is a strategic change in the balance of relationship between states, but the small groups who represent nobody but themselves, and whose main aim is actually to initiate a confrontation, to start a war across the region, in order, they hope, to break up and destroy structures that exist, states that exist, and then to establish small Islamic emirates throughout the area.

It’s really very important to prevent small groups of people seizing an opportunity to explode the whole delicate balance of relations across these sensitive areas.

Israel in fact will look on the Russian suggestion favorably. Although there are some in Israel who want to see an intervention in Syria, there’s a very important strain within the security and intelligence framework who say, why should we get involved? Let the region tear itself apart, it doesn’t concern us. What we’re mostly concerned about is keeping out of it and keeping stable. And therefore stability on the Golan will be important to Israel – important because they will see that they don’t want to get pulled into these conflicts, which are mostly sectarian. There is quite strong support in the intelligence and security services for a policy that Israel should not be drawn into the conflicts in the region, that they don’t concern Israel, and that it is a danger for Israel to get pulled into these conflicts, which are predominantly sectarian, rather than strategic and political.

Therefore, having a force that can provide stability and some sense of structure on the border against jihadists being right up on Israel’s border, will have a strong appeal within the security and intelligence establishment in Israel. And I think similarly, the Syrian army still believes it’s got the wind behind it, it’s anxious to finish the job, it’s in a quite strong position, it believes, and is really not looking for diversions, it just wants to get on and finish it, not be diverted to fighting the war in Golan or in Israel. They want to finish the job that’s at hand.

So I think both in Syria and in Israel, there will be support. The main problems will come with some of the European states, who’ve sort of relapsed into a rather Cold War mentality towards Russia, and will try to obstruct anything which they see is giving Russia a higher role in the region, namely countries such as France and Britain.

What is the possible reaction of the United States?

I think the United States will be broadly supportive. Their main concern is the security and stability of Israel – that’s their overriding concern, and always has been. They are aware and very much also concerned that Prime Minister Netanyahu will try and pull, if you like, Israel into conflict. What we’re seeing, as I say, is just small groups that are anxious to cause trouble. And of course, America understands that the culture of Israeli politics is, if there are rockets attacks, the Israeli population believes in immediate response and that Israel has to be tough, even if they come from groups that are actually completely insignificant in the political spectrum and are only there precisely in order to provoke such an aggressive reaction from Israel.

According to the UN, Russia’s participation in the peacekeeping operations in the Golan Heights is not possible because of her permanent membership in the UN Security Council  (in accordance with the protocol which was accepted in 1974). In this regard, Sergei Lavrov said that the document “could be replaced with the new one.” Is it possible?

Foreign Minister Lavrov is probably one of the world’s greatest experts on the procedures of the United Nations. I mean, he is extremely knowledgeable and has served as a very long time as Russia’s representative in the UN. So I’m sure that he’s right that this is the case. The UN has a problem of finding peacekeeping troops. So when a state – a serious state like Russia – offers peacekeeping troops, I cannot imagine in any reasonable way that the United Nations should oppose it, because they are desperate to have effective peacekeeping troops, not only there, but everywhere they’re having problems in finding them. So I’m sure they should treat it very seriously, and I’m sure that there is no difficulty, or no procedural difficulty that cannot be resolved, as Mr. Lavrov says, if there is a wish.

Will the presence of Russian peacekeepers contribute to the stabilization of the situation in the region?

Yes, it will contribute to it. As I say, because what we are talking about here is not an attempt to shift the strategic balance in favor of Syria or the resistance axis against Israel or for Israel on the other side. Its purpose is really to prevent small groups of extreme activists trying to explode the whole situation and drag both Syria and Israel, and possibly the wider region, into a much bigger and hugely dangerous conflagration. So it’s definitely a force for stabilization, and should be endorsed, both by the European powers and by the United Nations.

Views expressed are of individual Members and Contributors, rather than the Club’s, unless explicitly stated otherwise.

APA – Israel Tight-Lipped on Reply to Putin’s Peacekeeping Offer.

( Compare the pic below of Putin’s visit in Israel to his last meeting with Obama. –  JW )

[ 11 Juny 2013 01:19 ]

Baku-APA. Israel has given Russia an official reply to its offer to send peacekeepers to the Golan Heights, but does not want to make that reply public, an Israeli deputy foreign minister told RIA Novosti on Monday. Other Israeli officials have revealed contradictory feelings about the offer.

“Israel’s position was expressed openly and unambiguously during a conversation between the two countries’ leaders. Sometimes there are things that are best left on that level,” Israeli Deputy Foreign Minister Zeev Elkin said, referring to a telephone conversation between Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and Russian President Vladimir Putin.

Putin on Friday said Russia was ready to deploy troops to the Golan Heights, in eastern Israel, to replace nearly 400 Austrian peacekeepers being pulled out of a UN monitoring mission due to intense fighting in neighboring Syria, APA reports quoting RIA Novosti.

Although Elkin was tight-lipped about Israel’s reply to Putin’s offer, other officials have revealed conflicting views about Russian troops in the area.

Israeli Deputy Interior Minister Faina Kirshenbaum, currently on a visit to Moscow, said Monday that she thought Israel would not oppose the deployment of Russian peacekeepers.

“If President Putin has decided to deploy his forces there, I don’t think Israel will oppose that. We always want somebody to be there to monitor the situation,” she told Ekho Moskvy radio. “We would like any forces that could assume responsibility. Those can be Russian, Austrian or Australian. That doesn’t make any difference to us at all.”

Israel has already encountered a situation where peacekeeping forces were deployed in the Golan Heights but did nothing, simply sitting in their bunkers, she said. “So we would like to have forces that would be actively involved, at the very least in ensuring peace and security between us.”

However, other Israeli officials were skeptical about the proposal.

Yuval Steinitz, Israeli minister of international, intelligence and strategic affairs, said Friday that Putin’s idea of sending Russian troops to the Golan Heights to replace the Austrian troops was “unrealistic.”

“Israel cannot trust international forces, and sometimes, as it happens, their presence during crises is more burdensome than useful,” he said in comments carried by L’Agence France-Presse.

UN spokesman Martin Nesirky on Friday thanked Russia for its initiative, but said the peacekeeping agreements “do not allow for the participation of permanent members of the Security Council in UNDOF [UN Disengagement Observer Force].”

Some analysts believe that Israel is unlikely to accept the Russian offer due to Moscow’s close ties with Damascus.

Zeev Hanin, of Bar-Ilan University, told the BBC Russian service that Israel would like to avoid a repeat of the “two-day war” with Syria in June 1982, when Israeli fighter jets were, in effect, up against Russian antiaircraft systems. Israel would also like to avoid a situation like the one in South Ossetia, where Russian peacekeepers became involved in an armed conflict, he said.

Lavrov: Russian peacekeepers aim at ensuring security in Golan Heights | Russia Beyond The Headlines

( From Russia with Love – JW )

Russia’s initiative to send its peacekeepers to the Golan Heights is not an attempt to increase its influence in the region, but is aimed at maintaining security in the Middle East, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov told a press conference in Rio de Janeiro.

“Some people are also saying Russia will be trying to increase its influence in the region. I want to say right away that the purposes of our initiative are different from that,” Lavrov said.”Its sole purpose is to ensure security in this very fragile area of the Middle East.”

“The Golan Heights are part of the territory of the region, which was probably the calmest and safest in the past few decades. There were never any aggravations there,” Lavrov said.

In Lavrov’s opinion, a decision on the issue of sending Russian peacekeepers to the Golan Heights should be made only by Israel and Syria and the UN Security Council is not authorized to make formal decisions on this matter.

“According to the rules existing in the UN, the Security Council does not make formal decisions on what national contingents are involved in a specific peacekeeping operation. It’s a prerogative of the UN secretary-general,” Lavrov said.

“In this situation, taking into account these rules, everything depends on the position of Israel and Syria,” the minister added.

“If Israel and Syria agree and if the UN secretary-general makes an appropriate decision, our peacekeepers will fulfill the task of stabilizing the situation in this region in an honest, decent and reliable manner,” Lavrov said.

On Friday, Austria announced its decision to withdraw its peacekeepers from the Golan Heights. On the same day, Russian President Vladimir Putin said Russia would be ready to replace the Austrian peacekeepers if the regional powers do not object to that.

UN official Marin Nesirky said on Friday the peacekeepers’ mandate in the division zone between Israel and Syria on the Golan Heights does not allow Russia to send its peacekeepers to the region.

Israeli Deputy Interior Minister Faina Kirshenbaum, said on Monday Israel has no objections to the possible deployment of Russian peacekeepers in the Golan Heights.

In the meantime, Israeli Deputy Foreign Minister Zeev Elkin said on Tuesday that Israel is discussing the replacement of peacekeepers at the Golan Heights with Russia and hopes to find a country that would send its peacekeepers there instead of the Austrian forces.