WarSclerotic

Fearing chaos, US wades into Egypt turmoil | The Times of Israel.

Obama administration uses billions of dollars in aid money as leverage over conflicting parties

A police helicopter flies over the presidential palace, as a man waves the Egyptian national flag , in Cairo, Egypt, Tuesday, July 2 (photo credit: AP/Hassan Ammar)

WASHINGTON (AP) — Fearing a political-military implosion that could throw its most important Arab ally into chaos, the Obama administration has abandoned its hands-off approach, delivering pointed warnings to the three main players in the crisis: Muslim Brotherhood President Mohammed Morsi, protesters demanding his ouster and the powerful Egyptian military.

U.S. officials said Tuesday they are urging Morsi to take immediate steps to address opposition grievances, telling the protesters to remain peaceful and reminding the army that a coup could have consequences for the massive American military aid package it currently receives. The officials spoke on condition of anonymity because they were not authorized to speak publicly about the delicate diplomacy that is aimed at calming the unrest and protecting Egypt’s status as a bulwark of Mideast stability.

The officials said Washington has stopped short of demanding that Morsi take specific steps, but has instead offered strong suggestions, backed by billions of dollars in U.S. aid, about what he should do to ease the tensions. Those include calling early elections, firing an unpopular prosecutor and expressing a willingness to explore constitutional change. The army has been told that the $1.3 billion in foreign military financing it receives each year from Washington could be jeopardized by a coup or the appearance of a coup.

President Barack Obama personally delivered the message to Morsi in a phone call late Monday from Tanzania where he was wrapping up a trip to Africa, the officials said. Around the same time, Gen. Martin Dempsey, chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, called his Egyptian counterpart to point out that U.S. law requires cuts in military assistance in most cases when a country’s armed forces are involved in an unconstitutional change in government, the officials said. Meanwhile, diplomats at the U.S. Embassy in Cairo have been speaking with the opposition, the officials said.

In their conversation, Obama “encouraged President Morsi to take steps to show that he is responsive to (opposition) concerns, and underscored that the current crisis can only be resolved through a political process,” the White House said in a statement released before the president left Tanzania.

As Obama flew back to Washington, some of his top national security advisers were meeting at the White House Tuesday to plot a way forward. The conclusions of the so-called “deputies committee” meeting were not immediately clear. The committee usually meets to prepare policy options for the president and his Cabinet, which gather in what are known as “Principals Committee” meetings.

Pentagon spokesman George Little would not say whether the U.S. has received any commitment from the Egyptian military to provide security for any Americans at the embassy in the event of riots or a coup.

Asked whether the U.S. would cut off military relations with Egypt if the military takes control of the government, Little said that he would not speculate on legal conclusions. But, he added that generally, “there are consequences that can flow from such political developments.”

The administration had tried to remain above Egypt’s political fray, quietly counseling all sides to cooperate and compromise for the good of the country and the broader region. But officials said they determined that the low-key approach was no longer tenable after all sides hardened their positions on Monday. First, the army gave Morsi a 48-hour deadline to take action or face military intervention. That emboldened the protestors demanding Morsi’s immediate departure, while the president himself dug in his heels and rejected the ultimatum.

Those developments prompted Obama’s and Dempsey’s calls to Cairo as well as a subtle shift in the administration’s language, the officials said.

Where previous statements had stressed Morsi’s position as Egypt’s first democratically elected leader, the emphasis is now on the importance of the democratic process and respecting the principles of the revolution that led to strongman Hosni Mubarak’s toppling in 2011.

Obama told Morsi in their phone call that “the United States is committed to the democratic process in Egypt and does not support any single party or group,” the White House said on Monday. “He stressed that democracy is about more than elections; it is also about ensuring that the voices of all Egyptians are heard and represented by their government, including the many Egyptians demonstrating throughout the country.”

Copyright 2013 The Associated Press.

Millions take to the streets in Egypt as army threatens to call elections | The Times of Israel.

24 hours before ultimatum expires: military’s road map for political stability said to include suspending constitution and dissolving parliament

Hundreds of thousands of anti-Morsi protesters hold demonstrations at Cairo’s Tahrir Square, on Tuesday, July 2. (photo credit: screen capture/Channel 10 news)

CAIRO — With a military deadline for intervention ticking down, millions of protesters seeking the ouster of Egypt’s Islamist president sought Tuesday to push the embattled leader further toward the edge with another massive show of resolve and unity.

The ultimatum issued to President Mohammed Morsi by the opposition parties expired Tuesday afternoon, sparking renewed mass protests all across the country. Hundreds of thousands of people swarmed to Cairo’s Tahrir Square, waving flags and chanting anti-Morsi slogans. The Tamarod, or Rebel, movement which organized the protests had given the president until 5 p.m. Tuesday (15:00 GMT) to step down or face even larger demonstrations and possible “complete civil disobedience.”

Egypt’s state news agency reported Tuesday that the military has drawn up a plan to suspend the Islamist-backed constitution, dissolve the Islamist-dominated legislature, and set up an interim administration if Morsi fails to reach a solution with his opponents.

The agency’s report provided the first details of the road map the military has said it will implement if a deadline it set for Wednesday runs out with no solution.

A retired army general with close ties to the military confirmed the report.

Hossam Sweilam said a panel of experts would draft a new constitution and the interim administration would be a presidential council led by the Supreme Constitutional Court’s chief justice and including the defense minister, representatives of political parties, youth groups, Al-Azhar Mosque and the Coptic Church.

Hours after issuing its ulimatum on Monday afternoon, the military issued a second statement on its Facebook page denying it intended a coup. “The ideology and culture of the Egyptian armed forces does not allow for the policy of a military coup,” it said.

In its initial statement, the military said it would “announce a road map for the future and measures to implement it” if Morsi and its opponents cannot reach a consensus within 48 hours — a virtual impossibility. It promised to include all “patriotic and sincere” factions in the process.

The military underlined it will “not be a party in politics or rule.” But it said it has a responsibility to find a solution because Egypt’s national security is facing a “grave danger,” according to the statement.

In a significant move, opposition parties and the youth movement behind the demonstrations agreed that reform leader and Nobel Peace laureate Mohamed ElBaradei would represent them in any negotiations on the country’s political future.

The pact, at least in theory, should end the bickering and rivalries that have plagued the opposition.

At the same time, Morsi faced fissures from within after a stunning surge of street rage reminiscent of Egypt’s Arab Spring revolution in 2011 that cleared the way for Morsi’s long-suppressed Muslim Brotherhood to win the first open elections in decades.

Three government spokesmen were the latest to quit as part of high-level defections that underscored his increasing isolation.

The police, which is under control of the Interior Ministry, have stood on the sidelines of the protests, refusing even to protect the offices of the Muslim Brotherhood that have been attacked and ransacked. Their ministry has thrown its considerable weight behind the military.

In response to the growing pressures on Morsi, his Islamist backers have stepped up their own warnings that it may take bloodshed to dislodge him.

Some supporters say they would rather die fighting a military takeover than accept Morsi’s ouster just a year after the country’s first free election.

“Seeking martyrdom to prevent the ongoing coup is what we can offer as a sign of gratitude to previous martyrs who died in the revolution,” Brotherhood stalwart Mohammed el-Beltagi wrote Tuesday on his official Facebook page.

Morsi, meanwhile, met with Defense Minister and army chief Abdel-Fattah el-Sissi and Kandil in the second such meeting in as many days. No details were given about the meeting, reported by an official at the president’s office, Ayman Ali.

The meeting, however, suggests that efforts were being made to resolve the crisis, although there is little time and almost no political will from the opposition to accept anything less than Morsi’s departure.

At least 16 have been killed in clashes since Sunday between Morsi’s opponents and his many backers, who have equated the demonstrations and military arm-twisting to a coup against a democratically elected president.

Morsi’s backers have also hunkered down at their own rally site, vowing to resist any attempts to nullifying his election last year and the rise of Islamist voices in Egypt’s political affairs after bring muzzled under Mubarak.

The volatile atmosphere has been made even more unsettled by the prospect the military could soon step in.

The military’s declaration, read Monday on state TV, put enormous pressure on Morsi to step down and sent giant crowds opposing the president in Cairo and other cities into delirious celebrations of singing, dancing and fireworks.

But it also raised worries on both sides that the army could take over outright as it did after the 2011 ouster of Mubarak and raised the risk of a backlash from Morsi’s Islamist backers, some of whom once belonged to armed militant groups.

Morsi’s office issued a statement saying a “modern democratic state” was one of the main achievements of the anti-Mubarak uprising, adding, “With all its force, Egypt will not allow itself to be taken backward.”

While not bluntly rejecting the ultimatum, it said Morsi was still reviewing the military statement and that some parts of it “could cause disturbances in the complicated national scene.”

At the same time, he is grappling with growing dissent within his inner circle.

A foreign ministry official said career diplomats Omar Amer and Ihab Fahmy have stepped down after nearly five months speaking on behalf of Morsi. On Monday, six Cabinet ministers quit.

The official spoke on condition of anonymity because he was not authorized to speak to the media.

State TV later reported the resignation of Cabinet spokesman Alaa el-Hadidy.

Also Tuesday, an Egyptian court dealt another blow to Morsi’s authority, ruling that the president’s widely disputed appointment of an attorney general last November was illegal.

Morsi’s dismissal of Mahmoud Abdel-Meguid, who was appointed by Mubarak, was seen by the judiciary as an encroachment on its independence. The opposition has long demanded the removal of Abdel-Meguid’s successor, Talaat Abdullah.

President Barack Obama said the US is committed to democracy in Egypt, not any particular leader. Traveling in Tanzania, Obama said that although Morsi was democratically elected, the government must respect its opposition and minority groups.

Egypt’s presidency said Morsi received a phone call from Obama, who said the US administration “supports peaceful democratic transition in Egypt.”

Sunday’s protests on the first anniversary of Morsi’s inauguration were the largest seen in the country in the 2½ years of turmoil since Egyptians first rose up against Mubarak in January 2011.

Netanyahu: There is no place Israel’s long arm can’t reach | JPost | Israel News.

IDF chief visits UK for first time in a decade | The Times of Israel.

Benny Gantz arrives in London to meet with UK forces’ commander on security issues and military cooperation

IDF Chief of Staff Benny Gantz, May 29, 2013. (photo credit: Miriam Alster/FLASH90)

IDF Chief of Staff Benny Gantz arrived in London on Tuesday in the first such official visit in over a decade. Top generals have refrained from visiting the country in recent years due to the threat of arrest on charges of war crimes.

An IDF spokesman told The Times of Israel that Gantz was to be hosted by his UK peer Chief of the Defence Staff General Sir David Julian Richards and will hold meetings with local security chiefs. Among the topics on the agenda are military cooperation, joint security challenges and the overall situation in the Middle East.

Between the years 2009 and 2012 Israeli ministers and high-ranking IDF officers avoided traveling to the UK out of concern that they may be arrested on charges of war crimes that were lodged by pro-Palestinian lobbyists.

Following Israel’s assassination of Palestinian arch-terrorist Salah Shehadeh in 2002, pro-Palestinian groups spurred efforts to have Israeli military and political figures arrested in Britain for alleged war crimes committed abroad, exploiting a loophole in British law enabling universal jurisdiction.

As a result senior Israeli politicians and defense officials avoided official visits to London for several years. Tzipi Livni — foreign minister during Operation Cast Lead in the winter of 2008-9 — was forced to cancel a visit later in 2009 after being warned that she faced arrest over alleged war crimes during the three-week long IDF campaign in the Gaza Strip that aimed to stop rocket fire from the coastal enclave into Israel. In perhaps the most famous incident, Maj.-Gen. (res.) Doron Almog flew to London in 2005 to raise funds for a charity but, upon arrival, was advised not to disembark from the plane so as not to officially set foot on British soil and face arrest.

In 2011, however, the law was amended so that Britain’s director of Public Prosecutions would be required to give his consent if a group calls for an arrest warrant to be issued on the grounds of universal jurisdiction, effectively closing the loophole. Livni eventually visited Britain in 2011 to meet with British Foreign Secretary William Hague.

In December 2012, then home front defense minister Avi Dichter, who was formerly the head of the Shin Bet internal security service, also made an official visit to London.

Kuwaiti legislator says he ‘loves’ Israel for helping keep his country safe | The Times of Israel.

In rare pro-Israel comments, two MPs defend trade with Jewish state, cite the Prophet Muhammad’s dealings with Jews

Kuwaiti MP Hammad al-Dosari (image capture: MEMRI)

Two Kuwaiti members of Parliament took the rare step of not merely acknowledging military trade and other dealings with Israel, but praising the Jewish state, in video clips compiled and translated by the Middle East Media Research Institute (MEMRI).

In interviews aired on Al-Adala TV and posted online in late June, the MPs defend financial ties with Israel, one of them citing religious doctrine permitting dealing with Jews, and the other saying he “loves” Israel for helping keep Kuwait safe.

“The sharia permits us to have dealings with the Israelites. We follow the example of the Prophet Muhammad, who died while his shield was mortgaged with a Jew,” said Hammad al-Dosari, an independent MP from Kuwait’s fifth district. When the interviewer notes that he has been criticized for saying such things, al-Dosari responded saying, “You criticize me? Go criticize the Prophet Muhammad. A Muslim does not talk. He obeys the instructions of the Prophet Muhammad.”

Al-Dosari was referring to the belief that the Prophet Muhammad used his armor as collateral when purchasing grains from a Jewish merchant in Medina shortly before his death. The parable is meant to highlight the Muslim leader’s altruism, remaining destitute after giving all his possessions away in alms.

Al-Dosari’s colleague, Nabil al-Fadhl, went so far as saying that he “loves” Israel for selling Kuwait military equipment.

“If the security of Kuwait requires the purchase of Israeli equipment, I will do so, and I will love the Israelis for it. It is permitted to deal with anyone for the sake of Kuwait’s security,” argued al-Fadhl.

Kuwaiti MP Nabil al-Fadhl (image capture: MEMRI)

The legislator responded to the interviewer’s surprise and dismay at his professed willingness to trade with “Zionists,” saying: “So what? We’re talking about my country’s security. How exactly did the Muslims benefit us, when our Arab neighbor [Iraq] invaded our country? I am willing to buy equipment from Israel to protect my country from its Arab and Muslim neighbor.”

Israel and Kuwait do not enjoy formal diplomatic relations.

Arab media gloat at Morsi’s downfall | The Times of Israel.

Egypt’s ‘Intifada’ proves the Arab Spring is not an Islamist Spring, writes one columnist

Supporters of Egypt’s Islamist President Mohammed Morsi attend a rally in Nasser City, in Cairo, Egypt, Egypt, Monday, July 1, 2013 (photo credit: AP/Amr Nabil)

The dramatic demonstrations in Egypt and their aftermath continue to resonate in Arabic-language media Tuesday, with headlines predicting fateful developments in the hours and days to come.

“24 hours will determine Egypt’s future,” reads the top headline of Saudi-owned daily A-Sharq Al-Awsat Tuesday, featuring a photo of veiled women waving Egyptian flags and holding signs reading “Get out.”

“In a move that could change the political equation, the Egyptian army threatened yesterday to forcefully return to the forefront of political life if no agreement is reached between the rival groups,” reads the article’s lead paragraph.

Al-Hayat, based in London, leads with the headline “The Egyptian army tightens its stranglehold on Morsi and prepares for decision,” reporting that with its announcement the army foiled President Mohammed Morsi’s plan to bide his time and wait for the storm to pass. The army seems to have already prepared a “roadmap” for the post-Morsi era, reports the daily.

“The Egyptian army overrode the government’s plans to rely on the time element to overcome unprecedented popular protests against President Mohammed Morsi and the Muslim Brotherhood. It gave ‘everyone’ until tomorrow to fulfill the ‘people’s demands’ after millions of demonstrators voiced one demand, namely ‘holding early presidential elections’.”

London-based daily Al-Quds Al-Arabi reports “celebrations” on the street when the army issued its “final warning” to the government.

“The army’s ‘final warning’ came amid rapid dramatic developments indicating the effective collapse of the regime, as a number of ministers tendered their resignation. The state experienced complete paralysis when a large number of government institutions and service providers shut their doors in Cairo and the provinces.”

The headlines of Egypt’s print media are even more hyperbolic, if that is possible.

“The people wished it, and the army responded,” reads the headline of independent daily Al-Masry Al-Youm, reporting that “millions” of Egyptians took to the country’s squares, as the armed forces “sided with the people.” Establishment daily Al-Ahram reports that the Salafi Nour party has joined the call for early presidential elections and the formation of a technocrat government.

Al-Quds Al-Arabi editor-in-chief Abdel Bari Atwan writes on Tuesday that the army’s warning to Morsi means that Defense Minister Abdul Fattah Sisi is the effective Egyptian president.

“We do not know what decision the army is hiding, just as we do not know the contours of the roadmap Sisi spoke of. What we can say is that through its million-man demonstrations on Sunday the opposition succeeded in dragging the army to heed its demands, placing President Morsi and the Muslim Brotherhood in a very difficult corner,” writes Atwan.

“The army’s statement, in terms of its content and timing, constituted a first step in solving the crisis, dispelling most of the people’s fears and giving them a measure of hope in the future. Hope for security and for eradicating all forms of political and criminal thuggery, and restoring the prestige of the state and the presidency.”

According to Al-Hayat columnist Hazem Saghiyeh, the Egyptian Intifada (as it’s now being called by more and more Arab commentators) is a slap in the face to those who argue that the “Arab Spring” revolutions placed Islamists in power centers, never to be removed.

“What is happening in Egypt indicates that those revolutions left the door wide open for the freedom that brought the Islamists, and then that same freedom paved the way to pounce on them,” writes Saghiyeh.

A-Sharq Al-Awsat, never a big fan of the Muslim Brotherhood, gloats at Morsi’s apparent downfall.

“Today, following the Egyptian revolution and General Sisi’s speech, it is clear that the president and the Muslim Brotherhood and everyone who celebrated their mistakes both internal and foreign are in a true bind,” writes columnist Tareq Homayed.

“The question now is: will the president and Muslim Brotherhood have learned their lesson or will they continue their collective suicide and commit more mistakes? Do the president and his people understand that Egypt today is not like Egypt of yesterday? Did they read, for instance, the sign held up by Egyptians saying ‘God bring us Ramadan without the Brotherhood?’”   

The only big media outlet sympathetic to Morsi seems to be Qatari-based news channel Al-Jazeera. In an op-ed by columnist Fahmi Huwaidi on the channel’s website titled “After the presidency received the demonstrations’ message,” the writer argues that the message voiced in Egypt’s squares “reached the concerned parties.”

“What is taking place in Egypt is first and foremost a political conflict between national forces,” writes Huwaidi in a bid to dispel Islamist claims that the protesters are largely pro-Mubarak traitors. “Other elements are trying to exacerbate the conflict and utilize it to harm both sides, whether loyalists or oppositionists.”

Iran importing missile-grade ore from Germany, France – Israel News, Ynetnews.

Taking advantage of ambiguity in sanctions, Iran imports refined alumina ore from Europe to make armor parts, missile components. Tehran claims atomic work is ‘peaceful’

Reuters

Exploiting a loophole in Western sanctions, Iran is importing a high grade of refined alumina ore from several European countries including Germany and France that Tehran could be using to make armor parts and missile components.

Western measures imposed on Iran over its disputed nuclear program have hit many sectors of its economy including steel and other metals, where it is heavily dependent on imports. Tehran says its atomic work is peaceful.

The refined ore has been excluded from European Union sanctions, but tightened US sanctions that came into effect on July 1 seek to close the loophole. According to a US Treasury briefing, the latest measures will cover “raw or semi-finished metals” that include aluminum.

“After July 1, new sanctions will blacklist metals trade with Iran including aluminum, coal, steel, gold, silver and platinum amongst others, and should include alumina,” said Mark Dubowitz, who has advised President Barack Obama’s administration and US lawmakers on sanctions.

Alumina is a refined version of the raw ore bauxite. It is typically used to make aluminum, but in its high purity or ‘chemical grade’ form, it has non-metal applications that have sensitive military uses.

Export data from independent firm Global Trade Information Services showed that between January 2012 and March 2013, around 4,000 tons of alumina had been sold to Iran mostly from Germany and France, but also from Slovenia, Italy, Hungary and Belgium.

Experts and traders say the high price paid of $700-$1,000 a ton and relatively low amounts involved indicated the exports were most likely high purity chemical grade alumina.

Mark Gorwitz, previously with the US Department of Defense and now a consultant specializing in nuclear and missile-related technologies, says Iran is able to manufacture weapons grade ceramic composites using chemical alumina.

Iranian rocket. Archive (צילום: AFP)

 “Iran definitely has the ability to manufacture missile parts locally. They’ve done quite a bit of work on ceramic composites made with alumina, and used for manufacturing armor parts and missile components like nozzles and radomes,” he said.

Gorwitz cited an academic paper seen by Reuters on the scientific properties of alumina armor, published in 2011 by researchers at Malek Ashtar University, an entity listed by the EU in 2008 as linked to Iran’s nuclear activities.

Chemical alumina, a powder, has to be combined with other materials to make ceramic composites for missiles and armor.

David Albright, a former UN weapons inspector now president of US-based think-tank the Institute for Science and International Security, said Iran had been studying the use of chemical alumina for years, citing three scientific journal papers published by Iranian academics between 2008 and 2009.

“The documents show that there’s an interest in mastering the use of chemical alumina for a broad set of uses which include military,” he said.

Chemical alumina can also be used to make transparent ceramics used in lasers and night vision devices. But its use in protective cones for missiles potentially links it to Iran’s nuclear program.

“In general, Iran has been trying for three decades to develop ballistic missiles,” said Michael Elleman with the London-based International Institute for Strategic Studies.

“Transparent ceramics are a type of sapphire made using chemical alumina. Sapphire can be used as a missile component. Whether the missile carries explosive or nuclear warheads is not the point; most missiles are dual capable.”

A spokesman for Tehran’s UN mission in New York said sanctions were “counterproductive in terms of confidence building between Iran and some members of the Security Council who level some allegations against my country”.

“Iran has never violated its international commitment and always remains committed to its obligations,” he said.

Data from the International Aluminum Institute showed Europe produced 2.38 million tons of chemical grade alumina between January 2012 and June 2013, accounting for about a third of the total chemical alumina produced globally.

“None of the military and defense-related applications use particularly large tonnages of alumina,” a Western specialist familiar with alumina processes said.

Iranian military commanders regularly announce what they say is significant progress in the manufacture of defense systems and missiles, which are tested during regular drills and war games. But western analysts say their real capabilities cannot be independently verified.

A spokesman for EU foreign policy chief Catherine Ashton said the export of all forms of crude aluminum products as well as other aluminum products were prohibited under EU sanctions.

“Whereas the export of aluminum ore – alumina – is not,” the spokesman said. “It is an area that may be looked at in the future.”

As of July 1, however, the tightened US sanctions might hamper the alumina trade with Iran as companies involved, who also have US interests could be targeted by Washington.

“Any European companies found selling alumina, for example, will face the full weight of US law. Alumina previously has sailed past the radar under previous US and EU sanctions and should not be overlooked again as an important target of pressure,” Dubowitz said.

New President

Earlier this year, Switzerland-based commodities giant Glencore Xstrata said it had done nothing wrong when they engaged in alumina-for-aluminum swap deals with Iran. Another Swiss group Trafigura was involved in similar deals.

One industry source said at present alumina made in Europe was reaching Iran via middlemen operating from the Middle East Gulf who transport the cargoes on barges from the United Arab Emirates. Alumina can be shipped in general cargo vessels.

“There’s a number of small-time traders in Dubai dealing with alumina from Europe. They buy it from Europe and ship it to (Iran’s major cargo port) Bandar Abbas,” said a Europe-based alumina player familiar with the trade.

“It’s a lucrative market … these small guys have not got that much reputation to lose even if they get caught.”

The surprise victory of moderate cleric Hassan Rohani in Iran’s presidential election last month has raised hopes for an easing of tension in the decade-old nuclear dispute, although he is not expected to opt for dramatic change, given his ties with the religious leadership.

“It seems unlikely that the presidential elections will have a significant effect on Iran’s military program – at least in the short term,” said Hannah Poppy at consultancy Risk Advisory.

“Military spending is a long-term budgetary issue, and the President’s control over the military is limited. Also, Iran has invested a considerable amount to support its regional allies Syria and Hezbollah , so a major reduction in military aid or rhetorical support would be counter-intuitive.”

Warning: Egypt may become failed state – Israel Opinion, Ynetnews.

Analysis: Chaotic Egypt in need of massive foreign assistance, not Obama’s call for political dialogue; anything less is doomed for failure

The no-confidence vote of the Egyptian street in the Muslim Brotherhood regime does not bode well for the citizens. Israel and Egypt’s other neighbors should be concerned because the Arab country is on its way to becoming a failed state.

Even if the current political crisis is resolved and the demonstrators return to their homes, the main ailments that led to the civil unrest will not disappear:

• Egypt’s economy, which is functioning only partially, has caused millions of youngsters to take to the streets because they are unemployed and cannot earn a decent living.

• The collapse of the law enforcement authorities is resulting in anarchy in the cities and in the Sinai Peninsula. It is also causing the citizens to feel they have no protection on the streets.

• Political activity is taking place on the street and the social networks. The street is dictating the political and public agendas, as well as – to a large extent – the operational decisions. The democratic institutions – parliament, the presidency and government – are nearly irrelevant.

The economic distress in Egypt, particularly with regards to the employment of youngsters, is not new. This was actually the main reason behind the revolt against Mubarak’s regime, but back then there was at least economic growth and a regular supply of basic goods such as flour and petrol. Today the Muslim Brotherhood regime is unable to provide these basic commodities.

What’s really demoralizing is that there does not appear to be any politician or army leader who can rescue the Egyptian economy. In order to recuperate, Egypt is in need of massive foreign intervention, as well as generous investments from Gulf Arabs and Western corporations with the assistance of the International Monetary Fund and other global institutions, which would actually be running the corruption-ridden Egyptian economy until it recovers.

But the economic crisis in Europe and the one the US is beginning to recover from do not bode well for the Egyptian economy. Also, which foreign investor, or even tourist, would spend his money in a country where people are robbed on the street and women are constantly raped?

Internal security and the rule of law can be restored in Egypt, but this requires and efficient and determined regime, one that would have broad public legitimacy that would allow it to rule with an iron fist for a short period of time. Currently it appears that only the army is capable of this, but its leaders are hesitant after what happened to General Tantawi and his men, who tried to take over for Mubarak but were ousted following pressure from the Muslim Brotherhood and the street.

Since then, the generals are not keen on entering politics and are focusing on preventing a civil war and protecting Egypt’s economic interests. They fear that if they try to act forcefully, the street will strike back and deprive them of the legitimacy they need after the street and the social networks have become a modern-day pharaoh that rules the land of the Nile.

Anti-Morsi protest in Cairo (Photo: Reuters)

In light of the current situation, it is clear that Egypt has entered a trap which, as of now, it cannot escape. The economic distress and the threat of religious coercion are causing the youngsters to take to the streets, but if new elections are held that will depose Morsi and the Muslim Brotherhood, they may, after a short period of reorganization, return with renewed vigor and regain control over Egypt along with the Salafis and Jihadists. How? With mass protests and violence.

Unless Egypt’s economy experiences a surprising turnaround, it will become a failed state, like Somalia and Afghanistan. Regional and global history has shown us that the violent nightmares in failed states also affect neighboring countries. Some countries, such as Iran, exploit the lack of governance in failed states to set up terror groups that operate on their behalf. This is what has happened in Yemen, for example.

Islamist terror groups thrive in areas where there is no governance. Drug-trafficking and piracy are also rampant in the absence of a central government.

The chaos is reducing the possibility – which still exists – that the Egyptian army will wage war against Israel. On the contrary, it increases the motivation among Egypt’s military brass to preserve the peace treaty with Israel. But despite this advantage, the current situation presents a number of huge disadvantages, which will mostly likely grow more severe with time.

First of all, a situation in which the street dictates to the regime is very dangerous and turns Egypt into a fickle country whose responses are unpredictable. Today the masses in Tahrir Square are chanting slogans against Hamas, but tomorrow, will Israel act to curb the rocket fire emanating from Gaza, they may demand that the army enter Sinai to rescue the “Palestinian brothers.” Egypt currently belongs to the Western camp, mainly because the US is the only country that provides it with military and financial assistance.

The heads of Egypt’s army are loyal to Washington. But tomorrow the ayatollahs from Tehran may offer the desperate regime billions of dollars that would enable the regime to subsidize the price of Egyptian pita bread to the farmers. Then, even the generals and the Sunni clerics from Al-Azhar University would be faced with a difficult dilemma.

President Obama’s call to resolve the crisis through political negotiation is indicative of his country’s inability to help an important Middle Eastern ally. Two years ago, the same Obama rushed to force out the oppressive but functioning Mubarak regime.

Egypt is in need of massive financial and administrative assistance, similar to the assistance offered to Europe as part of the Marshall Plan following World War II. Anything less is doomed to failure, the effects of which Israel will most likely feel as well.

Israel seeks $5B in U.S. loans to buy arms – UPI.com.

Israel Hayom | Egypt’s secular-military coalition.

Boaz Bismuth