Archive for June 2013

Russian, Iranian technology is boosting Assad’s assault on Syrian rebels – The Washington Post

June 2, 2013

Russian, Iranian technology is boosting Assad’s assault on Syrian rebels – The Washington Post.

By , Sunday, June 2, 3:19 AM

RAMTHA, Jordan — Sophisticated technology from Russia and Iran has given Syrian government troops new advantages in tracking and destroying their foes, helping them solidify battlefield gains against rebels, according to Middle Eastern intelligence officials and analysts.

The technology includes increased numbers of Iranian-made surveillance drones and, in some areas, anti-mortar systems similar to those used by U.S. forces to trace the source of mortar fire, the officials and experts said. Syrian military units also are making greater use of monitoring equipment to gather intelligence about rebel positions and jamming devices to block rebel communications, they said.

At the same time, Syrian military leaders are adopting new tactics that some experts also attribute to foreign advisers and training.

“We’re seeing a turning point in the past couple of months, and it has a lot to do with the quality and type of weapons and other systems coming from Iran and Russia,” said a Middle Eastern intelligence official whose government closely monitors the fighting. The official, who spoke on the condition that his name and nationality be withheld in discussing sensitive intelligence, said the new gear is cementing an advantage gained by Syrian forces with the arrival of hundreds of Hezbollah fighters from Lebanon in recent weeks.

“The government troops clearly have a much better view of the battlefield, and they’re better able to respond to incoming fire — sometimes even before the other side can land a blow,” the official said.

Rebel commanders confirmed a sharp increase in the number of surveillance drones they have seen. Opposition leaders claimed to have brought down two Iranian-made drones in the past four months, including one three weeks ago in al-Ghouta, on the outskirts of Damascus.

Rebel spokesmen have described the drones as Iranian-made, citing Farsi script on one that was downed near the Lebanese border. Iran is known to be a significant manufacturer of unmanned aircraft and has previously provided drones to the Shiite militia Hezbollah, its ally.

“We are seeing unmanned aircraft much more frequently,” Louay al-Mokdad, the political and media coordinator for the Free Syria Army, said in a phone interview.

U.S. officials and independent experts also have noted an increased use of drones, and some said Syria is getting better at using them to direct artillery fire at rebel positions. “It’s all about how to put bombs onto targets,” said Jeffrey White, a former analyst for the Defense Intelligence Agency.

Analysts say the presence of other technically advanced weapons, including mortar-tracking systems, has been inferred from reports by rebel fighters and intelligence operatives inside Syria, as well as military observers in neighboring countries. From their scattered observation posts along the border, Jordanian military officials described seeing direct and indirect evidence of new weapons and equipment tipping the balance in favor of Syrian troops and allies supporting President Bashar al-Assad’s government.

“We’re seeing many things we haven’t seen before,” said Brig. Gen. Hussein al-Zyoud, commander of Jordanian border security forces. “We’ve seen new kinds of armored vehicles, and other vehicles used for jamming communications. We’re seeing night-vision and thermal devices that we haven’t seen in the past.”

The new hardware has added to a sense of momentum that pro-government forces have been enjoying since mid-spring.

Russia and Iran, longtime Syrian allies, have acknowledged providing Syria with a wide range of military equipment, from tanks and helicopters to small arms and ammunition. Moscow’s apparent decision to supply S-300 antiaircraft missiles to Syria drew stern warnings this past week from the Obama administration and Israeli officials, who say the missiles pose a threat to Israel’s security.

Despite the ability of Syrian troops to beat back rebel advances in some parts of the country, U.S. and Middle Eastern analysts said government forces are unlikely to recapture broad swaths of territory that is firmly under rebel control.

“Foreign assistance to the Syrian regime has allowed Assad’s forces to make some recent tactical gains, but overall, they’ve lost a lot of ground since the conflict began,” said a U.S. official with access to classified intelligence reports from the region.

Improved communication and surveillance are a key part of an evolving Syrian military doctrine that has been strikingly successful in recent weeks. White described the new tactics as “Qusair rules,” an allusion to the ongoing Syrian military offensive to retake the key city of Qusair near Lebanon’s northern border.

The approach involves the use of regular and irregular troops to isolate rebel units and cut off their access to supplies and reinforcements. Government forces squeeze the rebels into a small area and then unleash a heavy bombardment to inflict as many casualties as possible, White said.

“Eventually they wear down the rebels, killing enough of them so they either leave or get wiped out,” said White, a defense fellow at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy, a think tank. “It’s operational-level warfare, using maneuver-in-battle to achieve a strategic goal.”

The improved gear appears to be conferring an advantage on Syrian forces in the near-daily battle for control of government outposts along the border. On a recent afternoon, Zyoud, the border guard commander, and other Jordanian troops watched by live video feed as a battle raged around a Syrian checkpoint less than two miles away, across from the Jordanian border village of al-Torrah.

As frequently happens, the rebels quickly overran the checkpoint, setting fire to a tank and forcing the handful of Syrian guards to fall back to another post a few miles away. But within hours, as night fell, the Syrian army easily reclaimed the outpost, scattering the dozen or so rebel fighters who had briefly held it. The rebels could be seen strapping one of their wounded comrades onto a motorcycle heading toward the border with Jordan, apparently in hopes that Jordanians would provide medical care.

“They attack the checkpoints in a primitive way,” Zyoud said. “Sometimes you see them holding their weapons awkwardly and wasting their ammunition. They almost never take advantage of the vehicles and equipment the Syrians leave behind.”

“It is clear from watching them that they are not well-trained,” he said.

Loveday Morris in Beirut contributed to this report.

© The Washington Post Company

Admiral Kuznetsov aircraft carrier to start long-range mission in Mediterranean in late 2013

June 2, 2013

Admiral Kuznetsov aircraft carrier to start long-range mission in Mediterranean in late 2013 | Russia Beyond The Headlines.

https://i0.wp.com/defense-update.com/analysis/images/admiral_kuznetsov.jpg

The Admiral Kuznetsov heavy aircraft carrier will be ready to act as part of a Russian naval group in the Mediterranean by the end of 2013, Navy Commander Adm. Viktor Chirkov said.

“The cruiser will complete its planned maintenance at the end of the year. It is expected to put out and perform a number of missions in an offshore oceanic zone as part of a group. Northern Fleet naval pilots will perform a number of missions on board this cruiser in the long-range mission,” Chirkov said in an interview with Interfax on the occasion of the anniversary of the Northern Fleet’s foundation marked on June 1.

Talking about the Admiral Kuznetsov’s activities as part of a permanent operational group in the Mediterranean, Chirkov said this is possible on a rotation basis.

“After all, ships from the Northern, Black Sea, and Baltic Fleets will perform missions as part of this group. So why not,” he said.

Navi

The Admiral Kuznetsov is the only aircraft carrier operated by the Russian Navy. In addition to Su-33 sea-based multirole fighters, the cruiser also carries Ka-27, Ka-28, Ka-29, Ka-32 helicopters and their versions.

The vessel has water displacement of 55,000 tonnes and an operational range of 8,000 nautical miles and can move at 29 knots. Its crew is comprised of 1,500 and flight crew 650 people. Its armament includes Granit anti-ship missile systems, Kortik and Klinok anti-aircraft systems, and Udav anti-submarine systems

Rebels against Hezbollah: Rockets hit Baalbek region

June 2, 2013

Rebels against Hezbollah: Rockets hit Baalbek region – Israel News, Ynetnews.

( “Pour out thy wrath upon the heathen that have not known thee, and upon the kingdoms that have not called upon thy name.” Psalm 79:6 – JW )

Projectiles fired by rebels trying to overthrow Assad target Lebanon area controlled by Shiite group. Sunni Muslim cleric al-Qaradawi says Alawite sect ‘more infidel than Christians and Jews,’ Hezbollah ‘party of the devil’

Roi Kais, AP

Published: 06.01.13, 23:18 / Israel News

Syrian civil war spills into Lebanon: Eighteen rockets and mortars rounds from Syria slammed into Lebanon on Saturday, the largest cross-border salvo to hit a Hezbollah stronghold since Syrian rebels threatened to retaliate for the Lebanese terror group’s armed support of Syrian President Bashar Assad. On Sunday two rockets exploded in a Hezbollah-controlled area of Beirut.

The rockets targeted the Baalbek region, the latest sign that Syria’s civil war is increasingly destabilizing Lebanon. On Friday, the Lebanese parliament decided to put off general elections, originally scheduled for June, by 17 months, blaming a deteriorating security situation in the country.

In Qatar, an influential Sunni Muslim cleric whose TV show is watched by millions across the region, fanned the sectarian flames ignited by the Syria conflict and urged Sunnis everywhere to join the fight against Assad.

“I call on Muslims everywhere to help their brothers be victorious,” Yusuf al-Qaradawi said in his Friday sermon in the Qatari capital of Doha. “If I had the ability I would go and fight with them.”

“Everyone who has the ability and has training to kill … is required to go,” said al-Qaradawi, who is in his 80s. “We cannot ask our brothers to be killed while we watch.”

He denounced Assad’s Alawite sect, an offshoot of Shiite Islam, as “more infidel than Christians and Jews” and Shiite Muslim Hezbollah as “the party of the devil.”

He said there is no more common ground between Shiites and Sunnis, alleging that Shiite Iran – a longtime Syria ally that has supplied the regime with cash and weapons – is trying to “devour” Sunnis.

The Syrian conflict, now in its third year, has taken on dark sectarian overtones. It has escalated from a local uprising into a civil war and is not increasingly shifting into a proxy war.
רקטות פגעו במעוז חיזבאללה. בוחנים את מקום הפגיעה  (צילום: רויטרס)

Rocket landing site in Baalbek (Photo: Reuters)

Predominantly Sunni rebels backed by Sunni states Saudi Arabia, Qatar and Turkey are fighting against a regime that relies on support from Alawites, Shiites and Christians at home, and is aided by Iran and Hezbollah. The Syria conflict is also part of a wider battle between Saudi Arabia and Iran for regional influence.

Sunni fighters from Iraq and Lebanon have crossed into Syria to help those fighting Assad, while Shiites from Iraq have joined the battle on the regime’s side.

Western officials said the number of Hezbollah terrorists taking part in the Syrian war is lower than previously estimated. They claimed only about 2,000 Hezbollah men are fighting in Syria, not several thousand.

Sectarian tensions rose sharply when Hezbollah stepped up its involvement in the war in mid-May by joining a regime offensive against the rebel-held Syrian town of Qusair, about 10 kilometers (six miles) from Lebanon. The town has since become one of the war’s major military and political flashpoints, with international concern growing over civilians believed to be trapped there.

On Saturday, the International Committee of the Red Cross and the United Nation’s two top officials dealing with human rights and humanitarian issues said they were alarmed by reports that thousands of civilians are trapped in Qusair and that hundreds of wounded people are in urgent need of medical care.

Syrian rebels in Qusair (Photo: AP)
Syrian rebels in Qusair (Photo: AP)

The UN officials called for a cease-fire to allow the wounded to be evacuated. They said more than 10,000 people have fled to two nearby towns and need food, bedding, water and medical care.

The Red Cross said it has requested access to Qusair and is prepared to enter the city immediately to help the civilians there.

Syria’s political opposition cited Hezbollah’s role in the war and the dire situation in Qusair as reasons for not attending peace talks with the regime in Geneva, which the US and Russia had hoped could be launched at an international conference this month.

Photo: Reuters
Photo: Reuters

Qusair has also become a rallying cry for rebels demanding Western weapons shipments, with the commander of the main Western-backed rebel group warning this week the town could fall soon if such arms are not delivered.

A regime victory in Qusair would deal a demoralizing blow to the rebels and solidify Assad’s control over the central province of Homs, the linchpin linking the capital Damascus with the Alawite strongholds on the Mediterranean cost.

For the rebels, holding the town means protecting their supply line to Lebanon. Rebels have sent reinforcements to the town to try to stem the regime advances. Both sides have suffered heavy casualties.

Meanwhile, Hezbollah’s role in Syria set off a mounting backlash from the rebels who threatened to target the militia’s bases in Lebanon if the militant group does not withdraw its fighters.

Over the past week, Syrian rebels have fired dozens of rockets on Lebanon’s northeastern region of Hermel, across the border from Qusair, but Saturday’s attack was the first on the Baalbek region, a Hezbollah stronghold.

Sixteen rockets and mortar rounds hit Baalbek early Saturday, igniting fires in fields but causing no casualties. Lebanese security officials, speaking on condition of anonymity in line with regulations, said the villages of Yanta, Brital and Saraeen were among the areas struck. Lebanon’s National News Agency said two more rockets hit the Baalbek area on Saturday evening.

Also Saturday, gunmen opened fire on a Shiite shrine in the town of Baalbek in an attack that could worsen frictions between Lebanon’s Shiites and Sunnis. The shrine of Sayida Khawla, a great granddaughter of the Prophet Muhammad, was attacked shortly after midnight, a security official said.

Lebanon and Syria share a complex web of political and sectarian ties and rivalries that are easily enflamed. Lebanon, itself plagued by decades of strife, has been on edge since the beginning of the Syrian crisis, which began as mostly peaceful protests against Assad’s regime but later degenerated into all-out civil war.

Some Lebanese Sunnis support the Syrian rebels, while some Shiites back Assad’s regime. In the majority Sunni city of Tripoli in northern Lebanon, Sunnis backing the rebels and Alawites supporting Assad have repeatedly fought each other with rockets and grenades.

Hezbollah chief Hassan Nasrallah has firmly linked the militia’s fate with that of the Assad regime, but in a speech last week also pledged to keep the fighting out of Lebanon.

Still, a senior Hezbollah commander, Nabil Kaouk, said Saturday that “we will not be silent and will not stand idle” in the wake of Syrian rebel attacks on Hezbollah targets. He spoke during a memorial service for a slain Hezbollah fighter and his comments were carried on the website of Hezbollah-owned Al-Manar TV.

Fawaz A. Gerges, director of the Middle East Center at the London School of Economics, said he believes Hezbollah has made a strategic decision that the battle is in Syria, not Lebanon. “If Hezbollah is provoked, I don’t expect it to allow itself to fall into the trap” of responding, he said.

At the same time, the al-Qaradawi comments “are pouring fuel on a raging fire,” Gerges said.

The cleric is “putting a sectarian stamp on an essentially geostrategic struggle between Saudi Arabia and Iran,” he said.

A senior Israeli military officer said on Thursday the IDF tracks every heavy missile fired in the Syrian civil war, keen to study Damascus’s combat doctrines and deployments, and ready to fend off a feared first attack on Israeli territory.

Colonel Tzvika Haimovich of the air defense corps said southward launches against Syrian insurgents by President Assad’s forces gave Israel mere seconds in which to determine it was not the true target – a distinction that could prove crucial in warding off an unprecedented regional conflagration.

“Syria’s batteries are in a high state of operability, ready to fire at short notice. All it would take is a few degrees’ change in the flight path to endanger us,” he told Reuters in an interview at the air base in Palmachim, south of Tel Aviv.

Syrian opposition activists say Assad’s army has fired dozens of devastating Scud-type missiles at rebel-held areas in the last six months, out of a ballistic arsenal believed to number in the hundreds.

 

Ron Ben-Yishai, Reuters contributed to the report

‘Iran strike won’t lead to civilian disaster’

June 1, 2013

‘Iran strike won’t lead to civilian disaster’ | JPost | Israel News.

06/01/2013 22:07

Israeli expert challenges claim radioactive fallout from strike on nuclear sites will lead to humanitarian catastrophe.

Interior of Bushehr nuclear plant

Interior of Bushehr nuclear plant Photo: REUTERS/Stringer Iran

An Israeli nuclear expert has challenged claims by an Iranian-American philanthropist and industrialist, who argued last year that a military strike on Iran will lead to an environmental and humanitarian catastrophe.

Ephraim Asculai, a senior research fellow at the Institute for National Security Studies in Tel Aviv, published a response essay to a paper by Khosrow Bayegan Semnani, who is based in Salt Lake City, and who claimed last year that radioactive fallout from military strikes on Iranian nuclear sites could leave up to 70,000 Iranians dead.

Asculai, who worked for the Israel Atomic Energy Commission for over 40 years, mainly on issues of nuclear and environmental safety, said the rubble produced by air strikes, combined with the fact that the targeted facilities are underground, will minimize damage to the site’s surroundings.

“Although it is not possible to foresee the consequences of direct hits on Iranian underground facilities, it is reasonable to assess that either the underground facilities will be penetrated and exploded from within, or hit and collapse into the inner cavities and turn into piles of rubble, or with their innards at least gravely harmed. These piles of rubble would act as filters, with their greater surface areas holding on to or reacting with the materials released within, and thus preventing the major contents from escaping to the atmosphere and causing grave environmental harm,” Asculai said in an essay published last week.

Semnani’s assumptions which led him to the figure of 70,000 casualties, are based on a “ground level, unprotected source, with the entire inventory in the liquid state. This certainly is beyond a worst case scenario,” Asculai added.

While the Natanz and Fordow uranium enrichment facilities are potential targets, the Bushehr nuclear reactor is not, Asculai affirmed, adding, “no one in his right mind would consider striking an operating nuclear power reactor.”

At Natanz and Fordow, a compound called uranium hexafluoride (UF6) is being enriched. Asculai said UF6 is kept in containers in mostly solid form, with a small quantity of gas at the top.

“Under normal conditions, if the container is ruptured, very small quantities of gas will escape to the environment and can cause injuries or even death to the workers at hand, but not to anyone beyond an immediate, circumscribed distance from the source,” Asculai said.

Asculai also challenged Semnani’s argument that regime change in Iran should form the main strategy to solve the nuclear crisis.

“Not only could there be no guarantee of this change, but it could also be so delayed that it would give the present Iranian regime time to produce nuclear weapons that would be a game changer for all concerned. It is also not inconceivable that the present Iranian regime would resort to the actual use of nuclear weapons, should it consider it beneficial to do so,” Asculai wrote.

Russia to send nuclear submarines to southern seas | Reuters

June 1, 2013

Russia to send nuclear submarines to southern seas | Reuters.

A Russian submarine is anchored on the Neva River in central part of the city of St. Petersburg, July 27, 2012. REUTERS/Alexander Demianchuk

MOSCOW | Sat Jun 1, 2013 9:40am EDT

(Reuters) – Russia plans to resume nuclear submarine patrols in the southern seas after a hiatus of more than 20 years following the break-up of the Soviet Union, Itar-Tass news agency reported on Saturday, in another example of efforts to revive Moscow’s military.

The plan to send Borei-class submarines, designed to carry 16 long-range nuclear missiles, to the southern hemisphere follows President Vladimir Putin’s decision in March to deploy a naval unit in the Mediterranean Sea on a permanent basis starting this year.

“The revival of nuclear submarine patrols will allow us to fulfill the tasks of strategic deterrence not only across the North Pole but also the South Pole,” state-run Itar-Tass cited an unnamed official in the military General Staff as saying.

The official said the patrols would be phased in over several years. The Yuri Dolgoruky, the first of eight Borei-class submarines that Russia hopes to launch by 2020, entered service this year.

Putin has stressed the importance of a strong and agile military since returning to the presidency last May. In 13 years in power, he has often cited external threats when talking of the need for a reliable armed forces and Russian political unity.

Fears of a nuclear confrontation between Russia and the United States has eased in recent years, and the Cold War-era foes signed a landmark treaty in 2010 setting lower limits on the size of their long-range nuclear arsenals.

But the limited numbers of warheads and delivery vehicles such as submarines that they committed to under the New START treaty are still enough to devastate the world. Putin has made clear Russia will continue to upgrade its arsenal.

Russia’s land-launched Intercontinental Ballistic Missiles (ICBMs) would fly over the northern part of the globe, as would those fired from submarines in the northern hemisphere.

Both the Borei-class submarines and the Bulava ballistic missiles they carry were designed in the 1990s, when the science and defense industries were severely underfunded.

Russia sees the Bulava as the backbone of its future nuclear deterrence, but the program has been set back by several botched launches over the past few years.

(Editing by Sonya Hepinstall)

Moscow‘s smoke screen obscures Assad’s next Syrian war moves

June 1, 2013

Moscow‘s smoke screen obscures Assad’s next Syrian war moves.

DEBKAfile Special Report May 31, 2013, 8:00 PM (IDT)
Russian MiG-29M2 fighter-bomber

Russian MiG-29M2 fighter-bomber

One minute, Russian spokesmen declare that Moscow is only filling standing contracts with Syria for the sale of weapons, i.e. – S-300 anti-air missiles; the next, that delivery will take place only in the second quarter of 2014 (ahead of Syria’s presidential election). Then, after those spokesmen previously declared that Russia would only fill outstanding arms contracts, Serge Korotkov, head of the MiG company came out with the news Friday, May 31, that a Syrian delegation was in Moscow to discuss “a new contract” for the sale of “more than 10” MiG-29 M/M2 fighters.
According to debkafile’s military sources, this Russian fighter-bomber is designed to operate in complex electronic jamming environments. It is therefore just what the Syrian army lacks for overcoming the Israeli Air Force’s ability to disable Syria’s Russian-made electronic warfare systems.
Moscow is therefore offering to provide Bashar Assad and his air force with a key resource for delivering on the statement he made in a TV interview Thursday, May 30: “We have informed all foreign parties that we will retaliate against any future Israeli attack.”
Our military and Russian sources say that the conflicting Russian statements on weapons sales to Damascus have two motives:

1.  To lay down a smoke screen for concealing the true nature and volume of the military equipment Moscow is shipping to Assad and his army by airlift. Its transports land and unload their freight at various Syrian airfields, including Aleppo and Latakia. Without the Russian and Iranian air corridors, the Syrian army would soon run out of the ammunition, spare parts and fuel, needed day to day for keeping up its war on the rebels.
2. To spread a fog fraught with Russian menace for scaring Israel, the United States, Britain, France and Turkey off any thought of military intervention in the Syrian conflict.
This too is the frame of mind Moscow is seeking to generate for June 5 when representatives of Russia, the US and the United Nations meet to prepare the ground for the Geneva conference which had been called to hammer out a political settlement of the Syrian war.  Moscow is determined to browbeat Washington into accepting Iran’s participation.
Only the UN has so far named its representatives to the preliminary meeting. They are special envoy for Syria, the Algerian diplomat Lakhdar Brahimi, and the Deputy Secretary General, US Undersecretary for Political Affairs, Jeffrey Feltman.
Some weeks ago, Brahimi was on the point of resigning his mission. He changed his mind when he saw Assad was gaining the upper hand in the way and the Obama administration unwilling to stop him except by cooperating with Moscow in calling an international conference for setting limits on Assad’s triumph.

The Algerian diplomat became convinced that without Moscow and Iran’s attendance, the conference is condemned to fail.
Most probably, therefore, the preparatory meeting will be preoccupied with settling the argument over Iran’s participation. Already, behind closed doors, Moscow, Washington and Tehran have closed the gap between them and bargaining over the format of Tehran’s attendance, whether as a separate delegation or part of the Syrian team? And will Hizballah be asked or not?
The Russians are confident they come to the event with the strongest hand. Their delegates will lead a front composed of Iran, Syria and Hizballah, which is not only united but way ahead on the war front.
In contrast, their American co-sponsors, have not been able to persuade the fractious Syrian opposition or its Gulf patrons, led by Saudi Arabia, to put in an appearance at the conference.
Unless this obstacle can be overcome, the US delegation comes to the conference without Syrian or Arab parties on its side of the table.
Israel can only watch from the sidelines.
President Vladimir Putin and his advisers feel they can safely turn up the heat in the belief that President Barack Obama will have no choice in the final reckoning but to accept the Russian-Iranian proposals for ending the Syrian war, starting with leaving Assad in power. Otherwise, Moscow is indicating that the war will escalate, fueled by the swelling input of Russian arms, and the United States will sink further in Middle East estimation.
Implicit in the Russian stance is that the Syrian war which has already spread to Lebanon thanks to Hizballah’s participation in the fighting will next spill over into Israel. Moscow is playing the S-300 missiles and MiG-29 M/M2 warplanes as pieces in its game against Israel too on the Syrian chessboard.

Why Israel will attack this summer

June 1, 2013

Blog: Why Israel will attack this summer.

Ted Belman

Sooner or later Israel will have to bomb Iran. Better sooner, because Iran is quickly approaching Israel’s red line. Since intelligence is never precise, why wait ’til the last minute?

Summer and early fall is the best time to attack because that’s when the sky is the clearest.

Israel is committed to destroying the S-300 missile defense systems should it arrive in Syria.

Close to 5,000 Hezb’allah troops, if not more, are now fighting in Syria. Thus they are concentrated which makes their destruction easier. Also they are no longer guarding their missiles stored in Lebanon with full force. Israel could call for a mobilization due to perceived threats from Syria. Then it could mount an all-out ground attack on the stockpile of missiles in Lebanon. The Sunnis in Lebanon including the Lebanese government will probably stand aside and let Israel solve their Hezb’allah problem. Israel could then go east and destroy the Hezb’allah troops.

Hamas would stay quiet because it is in Qatar’s interest and Turkey’s interest that they do so. Qatar and Turkey would love to see Israel destroy Hezb’allah because that would aid their efforts to bring down Assad. Obama would like that too. It would take the pressure off the US to act.

It would be nice to get Hezb’allah out of the way for when Israel attacks Iran. Saudi Arabia and Qatar would be supportive.

Report: New Iranian Missile Launchers Could Overwhelm Israeli Defenses

June 1, 2013

Report: New Iranian Missile Launchers Could Overwhelm Israeli Defenses | USNI News.

By:
Friday, May 31, 2013
Iranian missile launchers in a May, 26 2013 display. Iranian Ministry of Defense Photo

Iran could have enough launchers to send a salvo of medium range ballistic missiles that would overwhelm Israeli ballistic missile defense systems, according to a Wednesday report from IHS Jane’s.

A May, 26 broadcast on Iranian television showcased a collection of transporter erector launchers (TELs) capable of launching the Iranian Shahab-3 guided ballistic missiles.

“Iranian television footage showed at least 26 TELs lined up in two rows for the event, which marked their purported delivery to the Islamic Revolution Guards Corps (IRGC) Aerospace Force, which operates the country’s ballistic missiles,” according to the report.

The Shahab-3 is based on a North Korean design and is capable striking Israel from Iranian territory.

“The delivery of such a large number of missile launchers demonstrates the Islamic Republic of Iran’s self-sufficiency in designing and building the strategic system and shows the Iranian Armed Forces’ massive firepower and their ability to give a crushing response to the enemy,” Defense Minister Brigadier General Ahmad Vahidi said in a report carried by Iranian state news.

The more missiles Iran can launch at once, “the greater its chances of overwhelming defensive systems, such as Israel’s Arrow, which only have a limited number of interceptors ready to launch at incoming targets,” according to the Jane’s report

Arrow is a joint U.S.-Israel BMD system which saw its first deployment in 2000.

Despite the Iranian rhetoric, some U.S. analysts doubt Iran’s ability to overwhelm Israel’s defensive systems.

“The Iranians are very good at telling themselves they have terrific and devastating technology which a cynic or skeptic like me may doubt,” naval analyst Norman Friedman told USNI News.
“It is a lot easier to multiply [launchers] than missiles.”

The training and coordination to fire enough salvos to overwhelm a modern BMD system is substantial, former U.S. Navy Rear Adm. Tom Marfiak — the anti-air warfare commander during Desert Shield and Desert Storm — told USNI News.

“Launching a single missile from a mobile TEL is a complex task for a trained crew. Much has to go right,” Marfiak said.
“Launching a number of missiles, nearly simultaneously, from multiple TEL’s, is a good deal more complicated than just lining them up for a parade.”

Kerry: Iran election unlikely to alter nuke policy

June 1, 2013

Kerry: Iran election unlikely to alter nuke policy | The Times of Israel.

( Kerry threatens an “Israeli” strike.  He’s Sec of State of the US!!  What could possibly sound weaker or more pathetic? – JW )

US secretary of state says possibility of Israeli strike draws closer, Jerusalem ‘will do what it needs to do to defend itself’

May 31, 2013, 11:11 pm
Secretary of State John Kerry, right, gestures as he speaks during a news conference with German Foreign Minister Guido Westerwelle at the State Department in Washington, Friday, May 31, 2013. (photo credit: AP/Evan Vucci)

Secretary of State John Kerry, right, gestures as he speaks during a news conference with German Foreign Minister Guido Westerwelle at the State Department in Washington, Friday, May 31, 2013. (photo credit: AP/Evan Vucci)

WASHINGTON (AP) — Secretary of State John Kerry said Friday he is not optimistic that Iran’s upcoming election will produce any change in the country’s nuclear ambitions, which the US and others believe are aimed at developing atomic weapons. He also reiterated the long-standing US position that it would be “unacceptable” for Iran to acquire a nuclear weapon.

Kerry’s comments came as the Obama administration again ramped up sanctions against Iran to try to force it to prove that its nuclear intentions are peaceful by cutting off much-needed outside state revenue. The sanctions target Iran’s petrochemicals industry, the largest source of funding for Iran’s nuclear program after oil.

Speaking to reporters at a joint news conference with German Foreign Minister Guido Westerwelle, Kerry said any shift in Iran’s nuclear policy will come from the country’s supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, and not the winner of the June 14 presidential election. Khamenei has final say on all state matters.

“I do not have high expectations that the election is going to change the fundamental calculus of Iran,” Kerry said. “This is not a portfolio that is in the hands of a new president or the president; it’s in the hands of the supreme leader. And the supreme leader ultimately will make that decision, I believe.”

Kerry said the US would continue to pursue a peaceful resolution to the impasse but that time is running out. He said Iran’s persistent defiance of international demands to come clean about its nuclear program makes the world more dangerous. Iran insists its nuclear program is intended for civilian energy production.

“Iran needs to understand that the clock is ticking,” he said, noting that Israel, which sees Iran as a threat to its existence, has not ruled out a unilateral military strike against Iranian nuclear facilities. “Every month it goes by gets more dangerous. And the reality is that Israel will do what it needs to do to defend itself.”

Shortly after Kerry spoke, the departments of State and Treasury unveiled the new sanctions, which also hit companies in the Gulf, Cyprus and elsewhere for helping blacklisted Iranian firms succeed in everything from securing new planes to concealing the origin of banned crude exports.

State Department spokeswoman Jen Psaki said the administration’s action “makes clear the risks involved in helping Iran evade sanctions and reaffirms that the only relief Iran will get from sanctions must come through negotiations.”

“Iran continues to ignore its international nuclear obligations, and the result of these actions has been an unprecedented international sanctions effort aimed at convincing Iran to change its behavior,” she added. “These sanctions today send a stark message that the United States will act resolutely against attempts to circumvent US sanctions. Any business that continues irresponsibly to support Iran’s energy sector or to help facilitate the nation’s efforts to evade US sanctions will face serious consequences.”

Copyright 2013 The Associated Press.