WarSclerotic

Lavrov: Iran agrees to halt 20-percent uranium enrichment. West must lift sanctions.

Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov

Iran has confirmed it is prepared to halt its enrichment of 20-percent uranium, Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov reported on the ministry website Tuesday, June 18. He urged Western nations to reciprocate by lifting sanctions. debkafile: It was not clear whether this was a temporary suspension, an absolute halt – or a dodge for getting sanctions eased to enable the incoming Iranian president Hassan Rouhaini get to grips with his top priority, his country’s dire economic straits..
Lavrov explained persuasively in his message: “For the first time in many years, there are encouraging signs in the process of settlement of the situation with the Iranian nuclear program. It would be a shame not to take advantage of this opportunity.”

He called Tehran’s concession “a breakthrough agreement, significantly alleviating existing problems, including concerns about the possibility of advanced uranium enrichment to a weapons-grade level.”

Lavrov urged the international community “to adequately respond to the constructive progress made by Iran, including gradual suspension and lifting of sanctions, both unilateral and those introduced by the UN Security Council.”
The Russian foreign minister’s move ties in with two other developments – one at the two-day G8 summit ending Tuesday in Northern Ireland and the other in Tehran:

1. The Group of Eight was about to wind up its summit Tuesday evening by issuing a joint communiqué – over President Vladimir Putin’s objections – calling for a transition government in Damascus and Bashar Assad’s removal from power. Lavrov’s message from Tehran sought to persuade the Western powers, chiefly President Barack Obama, that they would be missing the chance of a nuclear settlement with Iran, because Tehran would never countenance Assad’s ouster.
debkafile: The Syrian conflict and the nuclear controversy with Iran have long been closely intertwined.
2.  Moscow tried to put a positive slant on President-Elect Rouhani’s negative statement at his first news conference Monday, when he said Tehran “would not consider halting the country’s uranium enrichment activities entirely.”

What he meant, Lavrov hinted, was that Iran would not abandon low-level 5.3 percent enrichment – only the 20 percent grade which brought its nuclear program close to a weapons-grade capacity.
The Russian minister’s comment about it being “a shame not to take advantage of this opportunity” was addressed to Jerusalem.

debkafile’s military sources report that, two years ago, Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu and defense minister at the time, Ehud Barak, came to a secret agreement with the Obama administration that if Tehran stopped the 20-percent enrichment of uranium and shut down its underground enrichment plant at Fordo, Israel would have no objections to Iran carrying on producing uranium refined to the 5.3 percent level.

Israel revoked this deal at the end of 2012 when Iran began massively accelerating its enrichment activities and accumulated enough 5.3 percent material for a rapid switch to 20-percent enriched uranium.

Palestinians fire three rockets fired toward Ashkelon | The Times of Israel.

June 19, 2013, 6:22 am

Russian foreign minister: Iran willing to halt 20% uranium enrichment | JPost | Israel News.

Obama: Striking Syria carries risk of hitting chemical weapons sites – Alarabiya.net English | Front Page.

President Barack Obama dithered if U.S. military options could save lives in Syria, especially that it could hit a chemical weapons site. (File photo: Reuters)

Shimon Peres: Israel and Iran could negotiate – Telegraph.

Israel and Iran could sit down and talk to each other despite the bitter enmity that has pushed the two nations to the brink of war, Shimon Peres, the Israeli president, has said.

Israeli President Shimon Peres Photo: Quique Kierszenbaum

Rowhani’s past actions speak louder than today’s soft words, experts say | The Times of Israel.

As nuclear chief in the early 2000s Rowhani suspended enrichment only to resume it; said the world would learn to live with a nuclear Iran

By Elhanan Miller June 18, 2013, 1:37 am

Iranian President elect Hasan Rowhani, center, is accompanied by Hasan Khomeini, grandson of the late revolutionary founder Ayatollah Khomeini, right, and Ayatollah Mousavi Bojnourdi, during visit of Ayatollah Khomeini’s shrine, just outside Tehran, Iran, Sunday, June 16, 2013 (photo credit: Ebrahim Noroozi/AP)

Iranian President-elect Hasan Rowhani’s maiden speech on Monday may have left observers optimistic that Iran would change course on its nuclear program, or at least slow its pace. But a closer examination of Rowhani’s actions as top nuclear negotiator paint a gloomier picture.

Promising to follow “a path of moderation,” Rowhani on Monday endorsed closer cooperation with the West on Iran’s nuclear dossier in order to scale back crippling international sanctions. He called for greater transparency in Iran’s nuclear program to “make it clear to the whole world that the measures and activities of Iran are within international regulations and mechanisms.”

As his country’s chief nuclear negotiator, Rowhani famously suspended the enrichment of uranium for two years between 2003 and 2005 — fearing the US might target Iran after ousting Iraq’s Saddam Hussein. But as  Iran researcher Sasan Aghlani of London’s Chatham House pointed out, it was Rowhani who also resumed the enrichment during the term of “moderate” president Mohammad Khatami.

“The concessions of Khatami and Rowhani, as well as the resumption of enrichment, indicates that the Supreme Leader’s strategic posture is based on fluid calculations of Iran’s national interest and security,” wrote Aghlani earlier this month. All decisions pertaining to the nuclear program, in other words, are subject to changing political circumstances and the discretion of Ayatalloh Ali Khamenei, with the president serving at best as adviser.

‘Rowhani is a dyed-in-the-wool Khomeinist and part of the consensus on Iranian nuclear energy, which is a code word for nuclear weapons’

What’s more, according to Ze’ev Maghen, an Iran scholar at the Begin-Sadat Center for Strategic Studies at Bar Ilan University and Jerusalem’s Shalem College, Rowhani is himself convinced of the necessity of an advanced nuclear weapons program, and interested in using soft language merely as a stalling tactic in best Iranian negotiating tradition.

“Rowhani is a dyed-in-the-wool Khomeinist and part of the consensus on Iranian nuclear energy, which is a code word for nuclear weapons,” Maghen told The Times of Israel on Monday. And “he is no friendlier on Israel than [outgoing President Mahmoud] Ahmadinejad. The only difference between the two is one of style.”

According to Foreign Policy’s Elias Groll, a 2004 speech by Rowhani provides further indication that the new president’s goal is to place the world before a fait accompli on the nuclear issue.

“If one day we are able to complete the fuel cycle and the world sees that it has no choice — that we do possess the technology — then the situation will be different,” Rowhani said in that address. “The world did not want Pakistan to have an atomic bomb or Brazil to have the fuel cycle, but Pakistan built its bomb and Brazil has its fuel cycle, and the world started to work with them. Our problem is that we have not achieved either one, but we are standing at the threshold.”

That was then. Iran is a lot closer to the threshold today.

Maghen said that Iran views nuclear weapons as a strategic defensive and offensive tool. And its resounding success in manipulating the world, over more than a decade of futile negotiations, has left it with no reason to change course.

“Iran is currently in the driver’s seat. It calls the shots and everyone [in the West] scurries back and forth. For Rowhani to lose all that would be crazy,” said Maghen. “It would also be political suicide.”

“Israel is at the Paris Air Show as a Power”.

Amir Rapaport, Paris

17/6/2013

“The tiny Israel is at the Paris Air show as a power,” said Israeli Minister of Defense Moshe Ya’alon at the opening event of the Paris Air Show. Ya’alon noted that that it is the motivation of threat, innovation and excelling personnel that brings Israel to achievements in the development of new technologies.

14 Israeli companies are participating at the 2013 Paris Air Show, in an impressive display jointly organized by the Ministry of Defense’s SIBAT division and the Israel Export & International Cooperation Institute (IEICI). Beyond the large booths, the major Israeli companies Rafael, Elbit Systems and Israel Aerospace Industries are also presenting a gigantic external display of advanced systems. The Israeli booths have already attracted thousands of visitors in the first day of the expo. All of the heads of the Israeli defense establishment and senior officials from the Israeli industries participated in the inauguration of the Israeli pavilion Monday afternoon.

IEICI CEO Ofer Zachs said at the ceremony that 8% of Israel’s export of commodities is defensive, and represents a growing field. Elbit Systems CEO Bezhalel Machlis said on behalf of the presenting industries that “there is a broad variety of innovation, the fruit of understanding needs and development and production capabilities. Today there is greater competition due to global budgetary cuts and there is a need for competitiveness, now more than ever, to support the client, shorten development and production times. Cooperation with global companies that compete with us, and of course between Israeli companies, should also be expanded for the sake of the Israeli industries and economy.”

Ya’akov Peri, Israeli Minister of Science and former Head of the Shabak, said that there is a long tradition of Israeli pride at the Paris Air Show, and the Israel is presently at the front of the cyber and space fields.

First European & NATO heavy arms for Syrian rebels. Russian reprisal expected.

At odds on Syria

NATO and a number of European governments, most significantly the UK, have started airlifting heavy weapons to the Syrian rebels poised in Aleppo to fend off a major Syrian army offensive, according to debkafile’s exclusive military sources.

They disclose that the first shipments were landed Monday night, June 17, and early Tuesday in Turkey and Jordan. They contained anti-air and tank missiles as well as recoilless 120 mm cannons mounted on jeeps. From there, they were transferred to rebel forces in southern Syria and Aleppo in the northwest.

Our sources report that the first weapons reached rebel-held positions in Aleppo early Tuesday. More than 2,000 Hizballah troops are standing by to enter the decisive contest between Assad’s army and the opposition for control of Syria’s second most important city.

The hardware for the rebels is coming in from three sources:

1. NATO stores in Europe, which have been filling up in the past year with arms evacuated from Afghanistan. These weapons have been in operational use and are not new.
2. The Libyan black market.
3. The Balkan black market, chiefly Serbia and Montenegro.
Monday, Syrian President Bashar Assad cautioned Europe it would pay the price for delivering arms to rebel forces in Syria. In an interview to in the Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung, he said: “If the Europeans deliver weapons, the backyard of Europe will become terrorist…”

The volume of the new arms airlift to the Syrian rebels may be estimated by the number of airfreight flights from Libya to Turkey:  27 aircraft landings were counted in the last few days, according to our intelligence sources.

This major Western policy reversal on the arming of the Syrian opposition – combined with the Obama administration’s decision last week to provide the rebels with military aid – was graphically registered in the glum miens of Presidents Barack Obama and Vladimir Putin at their meeting Monday on the first day of the G8 summit in Northern Ireland. Beyond exchanging bare courtesies, neither concealed the deep rift between them on Syria – even in the presence of reporters and TV cameras.
Tuesday, the Group of Eight had its work cut out to formulate a Syrian item in its final communiqué that would be acceptable to all seven plus the Russian president. However, in Syria itself, all the signs portend the lengthening of the conflict: Russia is expected to respond to Western arms supplies to the rebels by ramping up its own military assistance to the Assad regime.
The word from Moscow Tuesday was that if the West does try to impose a no-fly zone over Syria, Russian flights will continue, in defiance of any such restrictions.

Rise of new Iran president delays Israel’s military option by at least another year – Middle East – Israel News | Haaretz Daily Newspaper.

( Dear God, please let this article be wrong… – JW )

Israel will have trouble mustering international support for an attack on Iran’s nuclear facilities until the West can assess the election result’s meaning.

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Iranian President-elect Hasan Rowhani speaks at a press conference in Tehran. Monday, June 17, 2013. Photo by AP

One of the most significant results of Iran’s election of a relative moderate as its next president will likely be to postpone any Israeli decision on military action against Tehran’s nuclear program until next year.

Ever since U.S. President Barack Obama visited here in March, Israel has toned down its threats to attack, due to an agreement with Washington to wait until after the Iranian election.

But now, with Hasan Rowhani’s surprise victory last Friday, it seems the West will want at least several months to assess the meaning of this change. Until then, Israel will have trouble mustering international support for an attack on Iran. Though Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s associates have frequently hinted that this will be the absolutely final year of decision on Iran, it seems he will have to wait another one.

More than a year ago, under heavy pressure from Israel and other American allies, Obama publicly announced that his policy was to prevent a nuclear Iran, not contain it. But opinions are divided on his willingness to back this statement with action. Obama has sought to reduce America’s military engagements overseas, and would be reluctant to launch a new military venture. This is evident from his handling of the Syria crisis, where even his decision to arm the rebels was reluctant and belated.

Though Obama has orchestrated unprecedently harsh international sanctions on Iran ‏(which contributed to Rowhani’s victory by causing economic distress‏), he has shown no enthusiasm for either American or Israeli military action against it. Now, as the White House’s statement on Sunday made clear, he wants to give Rowhani − who was Iran’s chief nuclear negotiator when it agreed to freeze its enrichment of uranium from late 2003 to early 2005 − a chance to negotiate a solution. And he wants Israel to give him time to make this attempt.

Rowhani’s statements after his election were largely aimed at Western ears. His message was that there is something to talk about, including on the nuclear issue. It’s hard to assess what the balance of power will be between the new president and Iran’s supreme leader, Ali Khamenei, given Rowhani’s trouncing of his conservative rivals. But it’s clear that only by easing the international sanctions can Iran ease its economic distress, and this will require signaling a degree of flexibility on the nuclear issue.

Israel’s skepticism about how moderate Rowhani really is, and its concern that the West is being naive about Iran, are completely understandable. Netanyahu has good reason to fear that Israel will be left alone on the battlefield while the West agrees to an inadequate compromise on the nuclear issue.

Sour response

Nevertheless, it’s hard to understand Jerusalem’s sour response. What would it have cost Netanyahu to open Sunday’s cabinet meeting by congratulating the Iranian people on their courage in voting contrary to Khamenei’s expectations, and declaring that the outcome creates an opportunity to resolve the crisis peacefully?

Instead, the government played up an old statement of Rowhani’s that Israel is “Satan” − though this week, he actually referred to Israel by name instead of as “the Zionist enemy,” which is the usual Iranian term. Israel’s leadership is acting as though the only thing that interested tens of millions of Iranian voters was the regime’s policy toward Israel.

Another key question is how the election will affect the civil war in Syria. In recent months, Iran and Hezbollah haven’t hidden their efforts on the Assad regime’s behalf. The final decision will be Khamenei’s. But if the vote really attests to the Iranian people’s disgust with the regime’s direction to date, it’s possible that this could constrain Iran’s activities in Syria, or alter its obstructionist approach to international efforts to convene a peace conference on Syria.

Thus far, no credible statistics have been published regarding the Iranian Revolutionary Guard’s losses in Syria. Unlike Hezbollah, which took an active role in the fighting and suffered hundreds of casualties, Iran has primarily been involved in behind-the-scenes activity − conducting training and supplying arms and technical expertise.

In the Lebanese media, some are already terming the Syrian conflict “Hezbollah’s Vietnam.” A similar debate among the Iranian public has barely begun − or at least, it hasn’t reached the media and social media outlets visible to the West. But it seems that soon Iranians, too, are likely to ask themselves why they should continue spilling Iranian blood to keep the Assad regime in power.

Gulf source: Saudis European supplying missiles to Syria rebels – Israel News, Ynetnews.

Opposition forces armed by Gulf allies, supplied via French, Belgian sources; Riyadh increasingly concerned following defeats at Qusair, entry of Hezbollah into fray

Reuters

Saudi Arabia, a staunch opponent of President Bashar Assad since early in Syria’s conflict, began supplying anti-aircraft missiles to rebels “on a small scale” about two months ago, a Gulf source said on Monday.

The shoulder-fired weapons were obtained mostly from suppliers in France and Belgium, the source told Reuters. France had paid for the transport of the weapons to the region.

The supplies were intended for General Salim Idriss, leader of the Supreme Military Council of the Free Syrian Army (FSA), who was still the kingdom’s main “point man” in the opposition, the source said.

The Gulf source said without elaborating that the kingdom had begun taking a more active role in the Syrian conflict in recent weeks due to the intensification of the conflict.

A foreign ministry spokesman was not immediately available for comment.

King Abdullah returned to Saudi Arabia on Friday after cutting short a holiday in Morocco to deal with what state media described as “repercussions of the events that the region is currently witnessing.”

Diplomatic sources in the kingdom say Riyadh has grown increasingly concerned after the entry of Lebanese Shi’ite militia Hezbollah into the conflict and the subsequent rebel defeat in Qusair.

Speaking to Reuters on Friday, Idriss urged Western allies to supply anti-aircraft and anti-tank missiles and to create a no-fly zone, saying if properly armed he could defeat Assad’s army within six months.

Idriss said his forces urgently needed heavier weapons in the northern city of Aleppo, where Assad‘s government has said its troops are preparing a massive assault.

Diplomatic Activity

Syria’s civil war grew out of protests that swept across the Arab world in 2011, becoming by far the deadliest of those uprisings and the most difficult to resolve.

Just months ago, Western countries believed Assad’s days were numbered. But momentum on the battlefield has turned in his favor, making the prospect of his swift removal and an end to the bloodshed appear remote without outside intervention.

The reported Saudi supplies began shortly before its main Western ally the United States announced it would likely send arms to Syrian rebels, a development long encouraged by Riyadh.

Top Saudi princes have been shuttling from one ally to another in recent weeks for meetings about Syria.

The epicenter of this activity was Paris, visited by Interior Minister Prince Mohammed bin Nayef in May, intelligence chief Prince Bandar bin Sultan and Foreign Minister Prince Saud al-Faisal this month.

Saudi Arabian National Guard Minister Prince Miteb bin Abdullah is there this week after meeting Turkish Prime Minister Tayyip Erdogan in Ankara. Crown Prince Salman met British Defence Secretary Phillip Hammond in Jeddah in early June.

Diplomatic sources in Riyadh said Saudi Arabia, France and Britain shared common ground on pushing Washington to take more decisive action against Assad.

Saudi Arabia has led Arab opposition to Assad since early in Syria‘s revolution. It was the first country to cut diplomatic ties with Damascus last year and took an early lead in funding and arming the rebels and helping them logistically.

However, its support has always been tempered by concerns of blowback from the more militant Islamist groups spearheading the battle against Assad, diplomatic sources in Riyadh say.

Riyadh has spent years combating domestic militants who waged a bombing campaign against Saudi and US targets last decade, after they returned from fighting under the Islamist banner in Afghanistan and Iraq.