WarSclerotic

Gulf source: Saudis European supplying missiles to Syria rebels – Israel News, Ynetnews.

Opposition forces armed by Gulf allies, supplied via French, Belgian sources; Riyadh increasingly concerned following defeats at Qusair, entry of Hezbollah into fray

Reuters

Saudi Arabia, a staunch opponent of President Bashar Assad since early in Syria’s conflict, began supplying anti-aircraft missiles to rebels “on a small scale” about two months ago, a Gulf source said on Monday.

The shoulder-fired weapons were obtained mostly from suppliers in France and Belgium, the source told Reuters. France had paid for the transport of the weapons to the region.

The supplies were intended for General Salim Idriss, leader of the Supreme Military Council of the Free Syrian Army (FSA), who was still the kingdom’s main “point man” in the opposition, the source said.

The Gulf source said without elaborating that the kingdom had begun taking a more active role in the Syrian conflict in recent weeks due to the intensification of the conflict.

A foreign ministry spokesman was not immediately available for comment.

King Abdullah returned to Saudi Arabia on Friday after cutting short a holiday in Morocco to deal with what state media described as “repercussions of the events that the region is currently witnessing.”

Diplomatic sources in the kingdom say Riyadh has grown increasingly concerned after the entry of Lebanese Shi’ite militia Hezbollah into the conflict and the subsequent rebel defeat in Qusair.

Speaking to Reuters on Friday, Idriss urged Western allies to supply anti-aircraft and anti-tank missiles and to create a no-fly zone, saying if properly armed he could defeat Assad’s army within six months.

Idriss said his forces urgently needed heavier weapons in the northern city of Aleppo, where Assad‘s government has said its troops are preparing a massive assault.

Diplomatic Activity

Syria’s civil war grew out of protests that swept across the Arab world in 2011, becoming by far the deadliest of those uprisings and the most difficult to resolve.

Just months ago, Western countries believed Assad’s days were numbered. But momentum on the battlefield has turned in his favor, making the prospect of his swift removal and an end to the bloodshed appear remote without outside intervention.

The reported Saudi supplies began shortly before its main Western ally the United States announced it would likely send arms to Syrian rebels, a development long encouraged by Riyadh.

Top Saudi princes have been shuttling from one ally to another in recent weeks for meetings about Syria.

The epicenter of this activity was Paris, visited by Interior Minister Prince Mohammed bin Nayef in May, intelligence chief Prince Bandar bin Sultan and Foreign Minister Prince Saud al-Faisal this month.

Saudi Arabian National Guard Minister Prince Miteb bin Abdullah is there this week after meeting Turkish Prime Minister Tayyip Erdogan in Ankara. Crown Prince Salman met British Defence Secretary Phillip Hammond in Jeddah in early June.

Diplomatic sources in Riyadh said Saudi Arabia, France and Britain shared common ground on pushing Washington to take more decisive action against Assad.

Saudi Arabia has led Arab opposition to Assad since early in Syria‘s revolution. It was the first country to cut diplomatic ties with Damascus last year and took an early lead in funding and arming the rebels and helping them logistically.

However, its support has always been tempered by concerns of blowback from the more militant Islamist groups spearheading the battle against Assad, diplomatic sources in Riyadh say.

Riyadh has spent years combating domestic militants who waged a bombing campaign against Saudi and US targets last decade, after they returned from fighting under the Islamist banner in Afghanistan and Iraq.

Reports in Syria: Israel attacked another airport – Israel News, Ynetnews.

Opposition sources say massive blast at military airport near Damascus result of Israeli airstrike; Assad says rebels behind attack

Roi Kais

News outlets affiliated with the Syrian opposition estimated that a massive explosion heard Sunday night at the Al-Maza military airport west of Damascus area was the result of an Israeli attack.

The reports quoted opposition activists as saying that the blast at the Al-Maza neighborhood bore the hallmarks of an explosion that rocked the outskirts of Damascus in May. Foreign news agencies said that explosion was part of an Israeli airstrike.

“My house overlooks the airport. At a certain point we saw armored vehicles enter the airport,” an opposition source said. “They were probably equipped with mobile radar systems. Then we heard the sound of a missile striking the vehicles. It was the same sound we heard in Mount Qasioun (site of the alleged airstrike in May).”

Another eyewitness said: “The explosion was like a volcano. The flames reached the sky. The sound was the same one that was heard in Qasioun.”

Various reports published Sunday night said the explosion in Al-Maza occurred when rebels detonated two car bombs. The Syrian regime said it was an attempt by “terrorists” to attack the military airport.

According to foreign reports, Israel attacked Syria twice within a few days in the beginning of May. President Bashar Assad’s regime claims the airstrikes targeted a military research center, but the West believes Israel targeted Iranian weapons systems that were designated for Hezbollah in Lebanon. Since then, senior Syrian officials said the country would retaliate immediately in case Israel attacks again.

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Assad warns: Europe will ‘pay price’ if it arms Syrian rebels | JPost | Israel News.

BBC News – Syria blast at Mezzeh military airport in Damascus.

A huge blast has been reported in the western Mezzeh suburb of the Syrian capital Damascus.

Syrian state TV said the blast was caused by “a terrorist attempt to target Mezzeh military airport”.

Unconfirmed reports said around 20 soldiers were killed or wounded in the explosion.

Mezzeh military airport is an important strategic installation and plays a significant role in distributing the government’s military supplies.

Activists said a big fire was raging inside the airport and that ambulances were heading to the scene.

The UK-based activist group, the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights (SOHR), said that a car bomb had been detonated targeting a military checkpoint near the airport.

The group, which has a network of informants on the ground, said there had been some 20 military casualties.

Mezzeh military airport is an important buffer between several outlying suburbs to the south-west, which are largely in rebel hands, and the core of the city including the nearby presidential palace, the BBC’s Jim Muir reports from Beirut.

In recent weeks, government forces have pushed the rebels back from many of the suburbs ringing the capital.

If the airport was the target of a car bombing, it will not bring the rebels any closer to over-running the city centre, which at present they are not in a position to do, our correspondent adds.

In April, state media reported that Syrian Prime Minister Wael al-Halqi survived a car bomb attack in the same district.

Last month, Syria accused Israel of launching rocket attacks on a military facility near Damascus and on a shipment of missiles near the Lebanese border.

‘Chorus of conspiracy’

Also on Sunday, Syria condemned Egyptian President Mohammed Morsi for cutting off diplomatic relations between the two countries.

Mr Morsi had joined a “chorus of conspiracy and incitement led by America”, an “official source” told the state-run Sana news agency.

Mr Morsi announced that Syria’s embassy in Cairo would be shut and Egypt’s representative withdrawn from Damascus. He also called on the international community to impose a no-fly zone over the country.

Addressing a rally in support of the Syrian opposition on Saturday, Mr Morsi went on to call on the Lebanese Shia movement Hezbollah to withdraw from the fighting in Syria.

Some Sunni Muslim clerics have urged support for rebels in Syria.

Hamas establishes special force to hinder rocket fire | The Times of Israel.

Prodded by Egypt, Gaza rulers task 600 men with preventing cross-border attacks; Cairo clamps down on weapons smuggling

Hamas security men parade in Gaza city (photo credit: Wissam Nassar/Flash90)

Hamas has fielded a 600-strong military force in the Gaza Strip that operates 24 hours a day in order to prevent rocket fire at Israel, a senior Arab source told The Times of Israel on Monday.

Since Egypt stepped up its involvement in Gaza and began to pressure Hamas to not allow rocket fire, the Islamic organization has diligently worked to keep the peace in Gaza, even when that came at the price of confrontations with the smaller Islamic groups such as the extremist Salafists, the source said.

Thus, Hamas has reestablished a special force to “safeguard public order” that numbers around 600 soldiers and operates mostly along the Gaza-Israeli border.

The past few months have seen a dramatic decline in the number of rockets fired at Israel as compared to a year ago, a trend that has been confirmed by Israeli security sources. According to Israeli figures, since the end of Operation Pillar of Defense in November, some 20 rockets or mortar shells have been fired into Israel, compared to about 150 over the same period last year.

At the same time, there has been a drop in the amounts of weapons smuggled into the Gaza Strip, due to Egypt’s efforts in the Sinai Peninsula and the prevention of smuggling from Libya.

The Egyptians have fielded a relatively large force to fight terror cells operating in the Sinai and to prevent the smuggling of “game-changing” long-range missiles. Still, Israel claims that the Egyptian activity is insufficient to dismantle terrorist infrastructure in the peninsula, despite being a significant improvement over the days of Egyptian president Hosni Mubarak, who during his rule did not conduct massive operations against terrorists in the Sinai.

Over the last few days, a delegation of senior Hamas officials has been holding consultations in Cairo, sponsored by the Egyptian government. According to Arab media reports, Egyptian President Mohammed Morsi gave special permission to three Hamas men wanted by Egyptian security to join the proceedings.

Egyptian security forces, including 24 senior officers, have been deployed around the Intercontinental Hotel in Cairo where the Hamas delegation is staying, fearing demonstrations by secular activists who oppose Hamas due to reports that the Islamic group has attempted to intervene in Egyptian politics and has been involved in attacks on Egyptian soil, the Palestinian Ma’an news agency reported.

Meanwhile, Cairo has apparently deployed a considerable military force in the Sinai Peninsula, especially around Rafah, el-Arish and Sheikh Zuweid, in anticipation of potential demonstrations and riots on June 30, the date chosen by the “National Salvation Front,” the umbrella opposition group, to stage massive nationwide protests.

Beware of Rohani’s trap – Israel Opinion, Ynetnews.

Analysis: Israel must make certain Obama, Ashton are not dazzled by seemingly moderate Iranian president-elect

The surprising victory in the Iranian presidential elections of Hassan Rohani, who is considered relatively moderate, is a reason for cautious optimism within the Islamic Republic and in the West. The fact that millions and millions of people voted for Rohani indicates that the economic sanctions imposed by the West are hurting the citizens, who view them as the main cause for the dire economic situation in Iran.

The election results also show there is a large pragmatic camp in Iran that includes not only the supporters of the reformists, but also those who support the conservative movement but prefer an improvement in the economic situation through the lifting of sanctions rather than the continued enrichment of uranium and installment of centrifuges.

This was exactly what Rohani proposed during his televised debate with rival candidates, and this also appears to be a priority of the Iranian people at this time. The fact that his comments were broadcast on television, uncensored, indicate that perhaps this is also the position of Supreme Leader Khamenei, who wants to prepare the Iranians for a possible twist in the nuclear negotiations with the West.

Another reason for optimism is the impressive democratic manner in which the elections were conducted. This indicates that the ayatollahs’ regime and the Revolutionary Guard are attentive to their subjects and have drawn lessons from the riots of 2009. It is not fear of the “green” reformists which dictated the cautious conduct of Khamenei and the Revolutionary Guard this time around, but a genuine fear for their survival due to the possibility that the economic collapse may lead even their supporters to rise up against them.

It is safe to assume that Rohani, like his predecessors, will eventually implement the decisions handed down by Supreme Leader Khamenei. So why has his victory sparked so much optimism in Iran and the West? If the elected president is merely a puppet tied to the strings pulled by the supreme political and religious leader, why should we even bother analyzing the election results? Because the president is not only an important and influential figure among the decision makers who are closest to Khamenei, he is also the head of the regime’s executive branch, and as such he determines the quality and pace of the implementation of the policy set by Khamenei. Among other things, the president dictates the economic policy and the methods for implementing reforms. He also appoints people to senior executive positions and controls Iran’s budget, answering only to Khamenei and Parliament. Meaning, he is a very influential figure who may, at times, challenge the supreme leader’s authority – as Ahmadinejad had done on occasion.

Still willing to cooperate? Rohani votes (Photo: MCT)

Israel and the West are most interested in seeing how Rohani’s election will affect Iran’s military nuclear program. What is almost certain is that his election will allow the regime in Tehran to buy some more time. The West will want to give Rohani an opportunity to establish his political authority, declare his new, much-needed economic policy and consult with Khamenei regarding Iran’s position in the next round of nuclear talks with the six world powers. Therefore, US President Obama and the European leader may decide on a moratorium, which would give Rohani more time to get organized and attain power. Such a delay, which would be limited in time, would mean that the West would refrain from imposing additional sanctions on Iran or tightening the existing ones. The West may also accept Iran’s proposal to postpone the next round of nuclear talks.

Pulls the strings. Khamenei (Photo: FP PHOTO / HO / KHAMENEI.IR) 

In the meantime, the centrifuges are already spinning. Additional centrifuges, which have already been installed, will become operational soon, and in the future more advanced centrifuges, which enrich uranium at three times the current pace, will also be installed. Rohani will settle into his new position and gain power within months, and during this time Iran will become a country on the brink of nuclear weapons capability. What will happen after that – God only knows.

Another possibility is that Rohani will employ a tactic that is similar to the one employed by his former boss. When the Americans invaded Iraq in 2003 and got close to the Iranian border, then-president Mohammad Khatami did not take any chances and suspended the uranium enrichment process, as well as the weapons development program (at least this is what the Americans claimed. The IDF’s intelligence branch said Iran had not really suspended these programs).

At the time, Rohani served as Khatami’s chief nuclear negotiator with the West. He represented moderate Iran, and, like today, was willing to cooperate and reach a compromise. But in 2005, when the Iranians saw that the Americans were buried up to their necks in the Iraqi mud, they resumed their nuclear program, including weapons development, without blinking. We may see this happen again. Rohani will agree to slow down the race toward a nuclear bomb in exchange for the lifting or easing of Western sanctions, and after a while, at Khamenei’s order, the uranium enrichment will resume with full force. It is hard to see the West and the Security Council imposing all of the sanctions again. Russia and China will make certain this does not happen.

There is also a third possibility: During the next round of nuclear talks Iran may suggest a compromise similar to the one proposed by the West, but it will have enough loopholes in it that Iran would still be able to advance toward becoming a country on the brink of nuclear weapons capability. The West, dazzled by Rohani’s apparent moderateness, will adopt the proposal and ease the sanctions. Such a development would also delegitimize the Israeli or American military option – until it will be too late.

Therefore, we should be very happy for the Iranian people and for the West, but we must also make certain that Obama and EU Foreign Policy chief Catherine Ashton do not fall into a trap Rohani may set for them at Khamenei’s order.

Rohani Victory May Undermine Support for Israeli Attack on Iran – Bloomberg.

Iranian President-elect Hassan Rohani’s vow to improve ties with the world carried him to a surprise first-round win. It may have also rewound the clock on a potential military strike against his country over its nuclear program.

“Those advocating an attack on Iran have been dealt a setback,” said Suzanne Maloney, a senior fellow at the Brookings Institution’s Saban Center for Middle East Policy in Washington. “The chances of an attack on Iran are even more remote than they have been in many years.”

While Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, 73, retains the power over national security, especially the nuclear program, past presidents have been able to influence the tone of foreign policy. The departure of President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, whose anti-Israel rhetoric and questioning of the Holocaust made Iran a pariah and helped prompt more sanctions, removes a lightning rod for global scorn.

After Rohani captured 18.6 million votes, about 51 percent, Western countries signaled an interest in engaging with him. The British Foreign Office urged him to set a new course for Iran and the European Union’s foreign policy chief Catherine Ashton said she hoped his win will lead to a “swift diplomatic solution” to the standoff over the nuclear program.

The White House said the U.S. “remains ready to engage the Iranian government directly in order to reach a diplomatic solution that will fully address the international community’s concerns about Iran’s nuclear program.”

Israel’s Threat

Iranian officials say the nuclear program is for energy and medical research. Israel and the U.S. say they believe Iran is trying to develop nuclear weapons capability. The Jewish state has threatened to attack Iran should other means fail to stop the Islamic republic from trying to obtain nuclear weapons.

Rohani’s victory revealed an internal opposition to the policies that have ostracized Iran. It also makes it more difficult to explain military action to international public opinion, said Gerald Steinberg, professor of political science at Bar Ilan University in Ramat Gan, Israel.

“Ahmadinejad was a figure everyone loves to hate,” Steinberg said. “Rohani is more sophisticated and a softer face of the same Iranian leadership.”

Iran has threatened to close the Strait of Hormuz if attacked and as the U.S. and Europe intensified sanctions targeting its financial and energy industries. An average of 14 crude tankers sail each day through the strait, which is 21 miles (34 kilometers) wide at its narrowest, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration, indicating a closure of the waterway would lead to a spike in oil prices.

Fine to Spin

Most of the oil exported by Saudi Arabia, OPEC’s biggest producer, as well as crude from Iraq, Kuwait, the U.A.E., Qatar and Iran itself passes through the waterway, making Hormuz the world’s most important energy chokepoint, with a daily flow of 17 million barrels a day in 2011, according to EIA data.

All six Iranian candidates said they backed Iran’s right to nuclear energy. Still, Rohani, who was Iran’s chief nuclear negotiator under former President Mohammad Khatami, said progress shouldn’t come at the expense of the economy and the well-being of the population.

“It’s fine for centrifuges to spin if people are also getting by,” he said during a debate this month.

His grace period with world powers may be short after talks over the past two years have failed to narrow differences.

Maintain Pressure

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu yesterday urged the world to maintain its pressure, saying Khamenei, not Rohani, holds the nuclear strings. Israel is not “deluding” itself over Rohani’s win and Iran’s nuclear program must be stopped no matter how, Netanyahu said.

“I don’t think any policy would have the ability to really change the attitude of the U.S. and the European Union in trying to squeeze Iran over the nuclear issue,” said Edward Bell, an analyst at the London-based Economist Intelligence Unit.

Rohani, 64, promised in April that he would pursue “dialogue and interaction with the world.” He has spoken in favor of increased freedom for the press as well as non-governmental organizations and vowed to improve the economy, which is set to contract 1.3 percent this year, according to the International Monetary Fund.

President Barack Obama reached out at least twice to the supreme leader without success. Iranian officials have said the U.S. approach was never genuine, designed only to curtail Iran’s rights and influence in the region.

Renewed Effort

Rohani’s election offers hope for a renewed diplomatic effort, said Geneive Abdo, a research fellow at the Washington-based Stimson Center.

“If the rhetoric from Iran changes this gives Obama once again the opportunity to call for some type of engagement,” she said. “It will completely de-escalate the sense of urgency for the U.S. to take action on Iran.”

Rohani’s careful grooming contrasts with Ahmadinejad’s, whose unkempt appearance and casual dress initially connected him to some voters. Rohani trained as a lawyer and serves on the Assembly of Experts, a religious body that nominates the supreme leader. He’s also head of the Center for Strategic Research at the Expediency Council, an advisory panel headed by former president Ali Akbar Rafsanjani. He holds master’s and doctorate law degrees from Glasgow Caledonian University, according to his website.

Easing Restrictions

He may be measured against the standards set by Ahmadinejad’s predecessor Khatami, who eased social and media restrictions and promoted interaction with the West.

At his campaign rallies, Rohani’s vowed to end Iran’s isolation and pursue a policy of reconciliation. He has little choice if he wants to revive an economy hurt by inflation at 30 percent and an economic crisis that left a quarter of Iranians age 15 to 29 unemployed in the year ended March 20.

Sanctions punishing Iran for its nuclear program include curbs on financial transactions and crude oil exports, the country’s main source of revenue.

“Sanctioning Ahmadinejad was very easy, it comes very naturally to the entire international community,” said Cliff Kupchan, director for the Middle East at the New York-based Eurasia Group. “Sanctioning a moderate, well-respected, judicious, articulate cleric is one heck of a lot harder.”

Putin will address G8 summit as head of winning Syrian war camp.

Vladimir Putin at G8 summit

Russian President Vladimir Putin set the tone for the discussion on Syria at the G8 summit which opened  in Northern Ireland Monday, June 17, when he rounded harshly on British Prime Minister David Cameron in London Sunday for supporting rebels who “kill their enemies and eat their organs.”

Hitting back at this week’s decision by US President Barack Obama – whom he will meet privately at the summit – to give the rebels “military support” – Putin asked: “Are these the people you want to supply weapons?”
The lovely lakeside venue for the two-day gathering of US, Russian, Canadian, French, German, Italian, British and Japanese leaders was worlds away from the Syrian killing fields, where 93,000 people have died, according to conservative estimates. But the Russian president will make sure that the voices of his allies, Bashar Assad, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and Hassan Nasrallah, are heard loud and clear in the conference hall, until they are acknowledge the victors of the vicious Syrian war. If world leaders hold back, the Syrian and Hizballah armies will continue their march on Aleppo, Syria’s biggest town, for their next bloodbath.

The light arms President Obama proposes to release for the Syrian rebels don’t give them the smallest fighting chance against the fighter-bomber jets, heavy tanks, and unlimited ordnance supplied Bashar Assad’s army by Russia and the missiles and troops coming from Hizballah and Iran.
This unbeatable preponderance makes the fall of Aleppo and Assad’s victory a foregone conclusion
Israel Defense Minister Moshe Ya’alon, speaking in Washington over the weekend, argued that the Syrian army’s successes did not add up to a strategic victory. The Russian leader will present the opposite case to which his fellows in the Group of Eight have no answer. They will therefore hammer at the only point on which they agree, the quest for a political solution of the Syrian crisis by means of an international conference, i.e., getting Geneva-2 off the ground.
Putin and Obama will therefore need to put their heads together on accepted ground rules for this event.

Although on the face of, nothing could be more reasonable, debkafile’s Russian and Middle East sources report it is a tall order indeed, given the list of at least four pre-conditions Putin plans to put before the US President on the strength of his partners’ war successes:
1. Geneva-2 will not be convened by the US or Russia, as first agreed, but by UN Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon. This would force Washington to stay within the bounds of UN resolutions and not act as did the US and NATO in Libya to overthrow Muammar Qaddafi outside their Security Council mandate.

2.  Bashar Assad must remain in power as the legitimate ruler of Syria. Russia’s sale of arms to the Syrian government in Damascus was therefore legal.

3.  Iran must be given a seat at Geneva-2.
The Russian president is determined to thwart any attempt by Obama to take advantage of Hassan Rouani’s election as president of Iran to supersede the battlefield successes of Russia, Iran and Hizballah in Syria. Ayatollah Khamenei will go along with him on this.
Sunday night, Washington was evidently exploring new diplomatic ground with Tehran when Denis McDonough, White House chief of staff commented that Hassan Rouhani’s election as president of Iran was a potentially hopeful sign. “If he is interested in, as he has said in his campaign events, mending his relations… with the rest of the world – there’s the opportunity to do that.”
But then, he said: “But doing so would require Iran to come clean on its illicit nuclear program.”
This was the Obama administration’s answer to Putin’s comment Tuesday, June 11: “I have no doubt that Iran is adhering to international commitments on nuclear non-proliferation, but regional and international concerns about Tehran’s nuclear program should not be ignored,” said the Russian leader.
4.  Putin has gone back on his earlier consent to a single, united delegation representing the Syrian opposition at the projected international conference. He now maintains that the rebel front is hopelessly divided and the delegation should truly represent the real situation.
This too will be a Russian attempt to frustrate Western plans for a united opposition camp to speak with one voice opposite the Assad regime, by accentuating the rifts dividing the rival Syrian opposition factions and militias.
As matters look now, Assad’s drive to recapture all of Aleppo will continue after the G8 leaders have gone home. Putin, Khamenei, Assad and Nasrallah will continue their hideous victory march and the US, West and Israel will continue to hold back from intervention that could reverse the tide.

US president to seek help from Putin on Syria | JPost | Israel News.