Archive for June 9, 2013

Putin acts to override Israeli, UN objections to Russian troops on the Golan

June 9, 2013

Putin acts to override Israeli, UN objections to Russian troops on the Golan.

DEBKAfile Exclusive Report June 8, 2013, 7:40 PM (IDT)
Russian BSF Marine Brigade landing

Russian BSF Marine Brigade landing
The Kremlin pointedly disclosed Saturday, June 8, that President Vladimir Putin had talked by phone to Binyamin Netanyahu Friday on the Syrian question. It was their third conversation in a month. In his first call on May 6, Putin administered a dressing down to Netanyahu who was visiting Shanghai on Israel’s air strike against Damascus the day before. On June 14th, the prime minister flew to Sochi for an abortive attempt to dissuade the Russian president from consigning advanced S-300 missiles to the Syrian army.
There was no comment from Jerusalem on this latest conversation. However, the frequent communications between the Russian and Israeli leaders speak volumes about who calls the shots for the Syrian war arena – and the wider Middle East as well – since the Obama administration opted out.  It also demonstrated that Putin is not giving up on the deployment of Russian troops on the Golan, despite the UN veto on their stepping into the shoes of the departing 377 Austrian members of the UN force policing the Golan separation zone between Israel and Syria.
Hoping to circumvent this veto, Putin turned for clearance directly to Jerusalem, one of the two parties to the 1974 disengagement agreement. No details of their conversation have been released.

Ever the opportunist, the Russian leader decided to take advantage of the exaggerated Israeli reporting of “heavy fighting” on June 5 between Syrian and rebel troops over the Quneitra crossing, as his fulcrum for generating a crisis around the divided enclave. Our military sources report that the Quneitra battle was nothing more than the brief seizure of the Golan crossing by a small group of Syrian rebels while Syrian troops were asleep. They were soon chased away by three Syrian tanks. Clouds of black smoke from fires ignited by Syrian shots filled TV screens for hours, giving Putin his answer for countering the arrival in Jordan last week of 1,000 American Marines (disclosed exclusively by debkafile on June 5), US Patriot missile interceptors and F-16 fighters, for deployment on the Syrian border.

The Russian president knew perfectly well that Israel and most likely the UN would bar his offer of Russian troops for the Golan force on legal grounds: The 1974 ceasefire accord precludes the five, veto-wielding UN Secretary Council permanent members from serving with the UN Disengagement Observer Force (UNDOF). He put the offer forward nonetheless for two reasons:

1.  As a reminder to the US and Chinese Presidents Obama and Xi Jinping, holding their first face to face in California, that neither of them controlled the state of play over embattled Syria and that Russia held the whip hand by virtue of its leadership of the Iranian-Syrian-Iraqi-Hizballah alliance.
2.  As the groundwork for his next moves for deploying Russian troops on the Syrian Golan. Next time, he won’t ask the US, the UN or Israel for permission. He will go straight to his ally, Syrian President Bashar Assad in Damascus, and advise him of the importance of deploying Russian soldiers to the Golan – on the same footing as the US military deployment in Jordan. Placing the unit just outside the Golan separation zone would save Moscow having to turn to the UN or Israel first.
debkafile’s military and intelligence sources report that the Kremlin has not finally decided if and when to go through with this plan but stands ready to order the troops’ departure for Syria at any time. For now, Russian leaders are keeping track of the large Syrian-Hizballah military force building up for the next big offensive against the southern town of Deraa, and watching the Iraqi forces standing ready on their side of the border to push into eastern Syria.
If their joint command determines, in consultation with the Kremlin, that a Russian military presence is needed for back-up, Russian troops will be dropped on the Golan.
Uncertainty still surrounds the Russian S-300 missiles sold to Syria. Israeli military sources insist they have not yet arrived, while Pentagon officials report that the Russians are sending batteries over in sections – not yet the missiles. Their fate, like that of the future Russian Golan contingent, awaits determination by the Russian President.

Analysis: Syria crisis shows why Israel must remain strong

June 9, 2013

Analysis: Syria crisis shows why Israel must remain strong | JPost | Israel News.

06/09/2013 06:00
Whether Syrian death toll is 80,000 or 100,000, this figure is more than all people killed in nearly a century of conflict between Israel and its enemies, including several wars and thousands of acts of terrorism.

Wounded residents were rescued from under rubble are treated at a field hospital in Qusair

Wounded residents were rescued from under rubble are treated at a field hospital in Qusair Photo: REUTERS/Trad al-Zouhouri/Shaam News Network/Handou

Fareed Zakaria explained why neither side in the Syrian conflict is likely to surrender: “People fight to the end because they know that losers in such wars get killed or ‘ethnically cleansed.’” In this kind of war the worlds “ethnically cleansed” do not mean displaced or made refugees. They mean, as Zakaria further explained, massacred: “Then you have phase 2, which is the massacre of the Alawites, the 14 percent of Syria that has ruled and that will be a bloodbath.”

Nor will the massacres and bloodbaths be limited to combatants, or even civilian officials, if the past is any indication.

Babies, women, the elderly and everyone else will become targets of the vengeful blood lust. Already somewhere between 80,000 and 100,000 Syrians have been killed, the vast majority of them civilians. According to United Nations investigators, some have been killed by chemical weapons and thermobaric bombs (that suck the oxygen out of the lungs of everyone in the area). There have been at least 17 massacres between mid-January and mid- May of this year alone. And there is no sign that the bloodshed is abating.

Whether the death toll is closer to 80,000 or 100,000, this figure is more than all the people killed in nearly a century of conflict between Israel and its enemies – a conflict that includes half a dozen wars and thousands of acts of terrorism and reprisals.

Even if one credits the worst allegations against the nation state of the Jewish people, Israel has killed fewer civilians since it came into existence 65 years ago than any country in history facing comparable threats over so long a time frame. The world seems unaware of this remarkable fact, because the media and international organizations focus far more on Arab and Muslim deaths caused by Israel than on those caused by fellow Arabs and Muslims.

Neither is Syria the first bloody battleground on which Arabs have massacred Arabs and Muslims have massacred Muslims. Black September in Jordan, the protracted war between Iran and Iraq, the civil war in Lebanon, and the killings in post-Saddam Iraq are only some of the bloodiest battles that resulted in many thousands of civilian deaths.

Imagine then what would happen if Israel were ever to lose a war with its Arab and Muslim enemies (as it almost did when it was attacked on Yom Kippur in 1973 by the Egyptian and Syrian armies.) The hatred directed against Jews in general and Israel in particular by Israel’s enemies is far more malignant than the animosity between Sunni and Shia Muslims or between Muslim and Christian Arabs. It is taught in schools, preached in mosques and repeated in the media. There would be no mercy shown. Israeli armies would not be allowed to surrender and be repatriated, as the Egyptian army was when it was trapped in Sinai at the end of the 1973 war.

Israeli civilians would be targeted as they already have been by Hamas and Hezbollah rockets fired in the direction of large population centers. The goal of the first war against Israel, as expressed by one of its leaders, was “this will be a war of extermination.” The desire for revenge has only grown over the course of further warfare and more defeats.

Every Israeli lives under the grim shadow of this reality. Nor do they count on timely outside intervention to prevent massacres. Remember, this is a nation built on the memory of the Holocaust, during which the world – including the United States, Great Britain and Canada – shut their gates on those seeking to escape genocide.

That is why Israel will never surrender and will always fight to the end. That is why Israel needs a nuclear deterrent, unsatisfactory as it may be in a part of the world where suicide in the name of Islam is a virtue to so many of Israel’s enemies. That is why Israel must always maintain a preventive option, whereby it attacks the enemy military that is poised to attack Israeli civilians. That is why Israel must always maintain qualitative military superiority over the combined resources of its enemies. This is also why Israel should make every reasonable effort to make peace with the Palestinians, as it has with the Egyptians and the Jordanians, but without sacrificing its security and its ability to successfully resist attack.

The first duty of every democracy is to protect its civilians against enemy attack. Thus far, Israel, though vastly outnumbered, has done a good job. The changes now occurring in the Arab and Muslim world make Israel’s future somewhat less certain, as does Iran’s movement toward nuclear weaponry capable of inflicting a second Holocaust on Israel’s six million Jews and one million Arabs.

Yet so many in the international community seem unsympathetic to Israel’s situation. Whenever it seeks to defend its civilians, by attacking military targets, though inadvertently killing some civilians on occasion, there is a disproportional outcry against the Jewish state. Selective boycotts, divestment and other sanctions are directed only at Israel by people ranging from Alice Walker to Steven Hawking. Israel must not allow these immorally selective threats of delegitimation to deter it from protecting its citizens against the threat of Syrian-type massacres.