WarSclerotic

Russian, Iranian technology is boosting Assad’s assault on Syrian rebels – The Washington Post.

By Joby Warrick, Sunday, June 2, 3:19 AM

RAMTHA, Jordan — Sophisticated technology from Russia and Iran has given Syrian government troops new advantages in tracking and destroying their foes, helping them solidify battlefield gains against rebels, according to Middle Eastern intelligence officials and analysts.

The technology includes increased numbers of Iranian-made surveillance drones and, in some areas, anti-mortar systems similar to those used by U.S. forces to trace the source of mortar fire, the officials and experts said. Syrian military units also are making greater use of monitoring equipment to gather intelligence about rebel positions and jamming devices to block rebel communications, they said.

At the same time, Syrian military leaders are adopting new tactics that some experts also attribute to foreign advisers and training.

“We’re seeing a turning point in the past couple of months, and it has a lot to do with the quality and type of weapons and other systems coming from Iran and Russia,” said a Middle Eastern intelligence official whose government closely monitors the fighting. The official, who spoke on the condition that his name and nationality be withheld in discussing sensitive intelligence, said the new gear is cementing an advantage gained by Syrian forces with the arrival of hundreds of Hezbollah fighters from Lebanon in recent weeks.

“The government troops clearly have a much better view of the battlefield, and they’re better able to respond to incoming fire — sometimes even before the other side can land a blow,” the official said.

Rebel commanders confirmed a sharp increase in the number of surveillance drones they have seen. Opposition leaders claimed to have brought down two Iranian-made drones in the past four months, including one three weeks ago in al-Ghouta, on the outskirts of Damascus.

Rebel spokesmen have described the drones as Iranian-made, citing Farsi script on one that was downed near the Lebanese border. Iran is known to be a significant manufacturer of unmanned aircraft and has previously provided drones to the Shiite militia Hezbollah, its ally.

“We are seeing unmanned aircraft much more frequently,” Louay al-Mokdad, the political and media coordinator for the Free Syria Army, said in a phone interview.

U.S. officials and independent experts also have noted an increased use of drones, and some said Syria is getting better at using them to direct artillery fire at rebel positions. “It’s all about how to put bombs onto targets,” said Jeffrey White, a former analyst for the Defense Intelligence Agency.

Analysts say the presence of other technically advanced weapons, including mortar-tracking systems, has been inferred from reports by rebel fighters and intelligence operatives inside Syria, as well as military observers in neighboring countries. From their scattered observation posts along the border, Jordanian military officials described seeing direct and indirect evidence of new weapons and equipment tipping the balance in favor of Syrian troops and allies supporting President Bashar al-Assad’s government.

“We’re seeing many things we haven’t seen before,” said Brig. Gen. Hussein al-Zyoud, commander of Jordanian border security forces. “We’ve seen new kinds of armored vehicles, and other vehicles used for jamming communications. We’re seeing night-vision and thermal devices that we haven’t seen in the past.”

The new hardware has added to a sense of momentum that pro-government forces have been enjoying since mid-spring.

Russia and Iran, longtime Syrian allies, have acknowledged providing Syria with a wide range of military equipment, from tanks and helicopters to small arms and ammunition. Moscow’s apparent decision to supply S-300 antiaircraft missiles to Syria drew stern warnings this past week from the Obama administration and Israeli officials, who say the missiles pose a threat to Israel’s security.

Despite the ability of Syrian troops to beat back rebel advances in some parts of the country, U.S. and Middle Eastern analysts said government forces are unlikely to recapture broad swaths of territory that is firmly under rebel control.

“Foreign assistance to the Syrian regime has allowed Assad’s forces to make some recent tactical gains, but overall, they’ve lost a lot of ground since the conflict began,” said a U.S. official with access to classified intelligence reports from the region.

Improved communication and surveillance are a key part of an evolving Syrian military doctrine that has been strikingly successful in recent weeks. White described the new tactics as “Qusair rules,” an allusion to the ongoing Syrian military offensive to retake the key city of Qusair near Lebanon’s northern border.

The approach involves the use of regular and irregular troops to isolate rebel units and cut off their access to supplies and reinforcements. Government forces squeeze the rebels into a small area and then unleash a heavy bombardment to inflict as many casualties as possible, White said.

“Eventually they wear down the rebels, killing enough of them so they either leave or get wiped out,” said White, a defense fellow at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy, a think tank. “It’s operational-level warfare, using maneuver-in-battle to achieve a strategic goal.”

The improved gear appears to be conferring an advantage on Syrian forces in the near-daily battle for control of government outposts along the border. On a recent afternoon, Zyoud, the border guard commander, and other Jordanian troops watched by live video feed as a battle raged around a Syrian checkpoint less than two miles away, across from the Jordanian border village of al-Torrah.

As frequently happens, the rebels quickly overran the checkpoint, setting fire to a tank and forcing the handful of Syrian guards to fall back to another post a few miles away. But within hours, as night fell, the Syrian army easily reclaimed the outpost, scattering the dozen or so rebel fighters who had briefly held it. The rebels could be seen strapping one of their wounded comrades onto a motorcycle heading toward the border with Jordan, apparently in hopes that Jordanians would provide medical care.

“They attack the checkpoints in a primitive way,” Zyoud said. “Sometimes you see them holding their weapons awkwardly and wasting their ammunition. They almost never take advantage of the vehicles and equipment the Syrians leave behind.”

“It is clear from watching them that they are not well-trained,” he said.

Loveday Morris in Beirut contributed to this report.

© The Washington Post Company

Admiral Kuznetsov aircraft carrier to start long-range mission in Mediterranean in late 2013 | Russia Beyond The Headlines.

The Admiral Kuznetsov heavy aircraft carrier will be ready to act as part of a Russian naval group in the Mediterranean by the end of 2013, Navy Commander Adm. Viktor Chirkov said.

“The cruiser will complete its planned maintenance at the end of the year. It is expected to put out and perform a number of missions in an offshore oceanic zone as part of a group. Northern Fleet naval pilots will perform a number of missions on board this cruiser in the long-range mission,” Chirkov said in an interview with Interfax on the occasion of the anniversary of the Northern Fleet’s foundation marked on June 1.

Talking about the Admiral Kuznetsov’s activities as part of a permanent operational group in the Mediterranean, Chirkov said this is possible on a rotation basis.

“After all, ships from the Northern, Black Sea, and Baltic Fleets will perform missions as part of this group. So why not,” he said.

The Admiral Kuznetsov is the only aircraft carrier operated by the Russian Navy. In addition to Su-33 sea-based multirole fighters, the cruiser also carries Ka-27, Ka-28, Ka-29, Ka-32 helicopters and their versions.

The vessel has water displacement of 55,000 tonnes and an operational range of 8,000 nautical miles and can move at 29 knots. Its crew is comprised of 1,500 and flight crew 650 people. Its armament includes Granit anti-ship missile systems, Kortik and Klinok anti-aircraft systems, and Udav anti-submarine systems

Rebels against Hezbollah: Rockets hit Baalbek region – Israel News, Ynetnews.

( “Pour out thy wrath upon the heathen that have not known thee, and upon the kingdoms that have not called upon thy name.” Psalm 79:6 – JW )

Projectiles fired by rebels trying to overthrow Assad target Lebanon area controlled by Shiite group. Sunni Muslim cleric al-Qaradawi says Alawite sect ‘more infidel than Christians and Jews,’ Hezbollah ‘party of the devil’

Roi Kais, AP

Syrian civil war spills into Lebanon: Eighteen rockets and mortars rounds from Syria slammed into Lebanon on Saturday, the largest cross-border salvo to hit a Hezbollah stronghold since Syrian rebels threatened to retaliate for the Lebanese terror group’s armed support of Syrian President Bashar Assad. On Sunday two rockets exploded in a Hezbollah-controlled area of Beirut.

The rockets targeted the Baalbek region, the latest sign that Syria’s civil war is increasingly destabilizing Lebanon. On Friday, the Lebanese parliament decided to put off general elections, originally scheduled for June, by 17 months, blaming a deteriorating security situation in the country.

In Qatar, an influential Sunni Muslim cleric whose TV show is watched by millions across the region, fanned the sectarian flames ignited by the Syria conflict and urged Sunnis everywhere to join the fight against Assad.

“I call on Muslims everywhere to help their brothers be victorious,” Yusuf al-Qaradawi said in his Friday sermon in the Qatari capital of Doha. “If I had the ability I would go and fight with them.”

“Everyone who has the ability and has training to kill … is required to go,” said al-Qaradawi, who is in his 80s. “We cannot ask our brothers to be killed while we watch.”

He denounced Assad’s Alawite sect, an offshoot of Shiite Islam, as “more infidel than Christians and Jews” and Shiite Muslim Hezbollah as “the party of the devil.”

He said there is no more common ground between Shiites and Sunnis, alleging that Shiite Iran – a longtime Syria ally that has supplied the regime with cash and weapons – is trying to “devour” Sunnis.

The Syrian conflict, now in its third year, has taken on dark sectarian overtones. It has escalated from a local uprising into a civil war and is not increasingly shifting into a proxy war.

Rocket landing site in Baalbek (Photo: Reuters)

Predominantly Sunni rebels backed by Sunni states Saudi Arabia, Qatar and Turkey are fighting against a regime that relies on support from Alawites, Shiites and Christians at home, and is aided by Iran and Hezbollah. The Syria conflict is also part of a wider battle between Saudi Arabia and Iran for regional influence.

Sunni fighters from Iraq and Lebanon have crossed into Syria to help those fighting Assad, while Shiites from Iraq have joined the battle on the regime’s side.

Western officials said the number of Hezbollah terrorists taking part in the Syrian war is lower than previously estimated. They claimed only about 2,000 Hezbollah men are fighting in Syria, not several thousand.

Sectarian tensions rose sharply when Hezbollah stepped up its involvement in the war in mid-May by joining a regime offensive against the rebel-held Syrian town of Qusair, about 10 kilometers (six miles) from Lebanon. The town has since become one of the war’s major military and political flashpoints, with international concern growing over civilians believed to be trapped there.

On Saturday, the International Committee of the Red Cross and the United Nation’s two top officials dealing with human rights and humanitarian issues said they were alarmed by reports that thousands of civilians are trapped in Qusair and that hundreds of wounded people are in urgent need of medical care.

Syrian rebels in Qusair (Photo: AP)

The UN officials called for a cease-fire to allow the wounded to be evacuated. They said more than 10,000 people have fled to two nearby towns and need food, bedding, water and medical care.

The Red Cross said it has requested access to Qusair and is prepared to enter the city immediately to help the civilians there.

Syria’s political opposition cited Hezbollah’s role in the war and the dire situation in Qusair as reasons for not attending peace talks with the regime in Geneva, which the US and Russia had hoped could be launched at an international conference this month.

Photo: Reuters

Qusair has also become a rallying cry for rebels demanding Western weapons shipments, with the commander of the main Western-backed rebel group warning this week the town could fall soon if such arms are not delivered.

A regime victory in Qusair would deal a demoralizing blow to the rebels and solidify Assad’s control over the central province of Homs, the linchpin linking the capital Damascus with the Alawite strongholds on the Mediterranean cost.

For the rebels, holding the town means protecting their supply line to Lebanon. Rebels have sent reinforcements to the town to try to stem the regime advances. Both sides have suffered heavy casualties.

Meanwhile, Hezbollah’s role in Syria set off a mounting backlash from the rebels who threatened to target the militia’s bases in Lebanon if the militant group does not withdraw its fighters.

Over the past week, Syrian rebels have fired dozens of rockets on Lebanon’s northeastern region of Hermel, across the border from Qusair, but Saturday’s attack was the first on the Baalbek region, a Hezbollah stronghold.

Sixteen rockets and mortar rounds hit Baalbek early Saturday, igniting fires in fields but causing no casualties. Lebanese security officials, speaking on condition of anonymity in line with regulations, said the villages of Yanta, Brital and Saraeen were among the areas struck. Lebanon’s National News Agency said two more rockets hit the Baalbek area on Saturday evening.

Also Saturday, gunmen opened fire on a Shiite shrine in the town of Baalbek in an attack that could worsen frictions between Lebanon’s Shiites and Sunnis. The shrine of Sayida Khawla, a great granddaughter of the Prophet Muhammad, was attacked shortly after midnight, a security official said.

Lebanon and Syria share a complex web of political and sectarian ties and rivalries that are easily enflamed. Lebanon, itself plagued by decades of strife, has been on edge since the beginning of the Syrian crisis, which began as mostly peaceful protests against Assad’s regime but later degenerated into all-out civil war.

Some Lebanese Sunnis support the Syrian rebels, while some Shiites back Assad’s regime. In the majority Sunni city of Tripoli in northern Lebanon, Sunnis backing the rebels and Alawites supporting Assad have repeatedly fought each other with rockets and grenades.

Hezbollah chief Hassan Nasrallah has firmly linked the militia’s fate with that of the Assad regime, but in a speech last week also pledged to keep the fighting out of Lebanon.

Still, a senior Hezbollah commander, Nabil Kaouk, said Saturday that “we will not be silent and will not stand idle” in the wake of Syrian rebel attacks on Hezbollah targets. He spoke during a memorial service for a slain Hezbollah fighter and his comments were carried on the website of Hezbollah-owned Al-Manar TV.

Fawaz A. Gerges, director of the Middle East Center at the London School of Economics, said he believes Hezbollah has made a strategic decision that the battle is in Syria, not Lebanon. “If Hezbollah is provoked, I don’t expect it to allow itself to fall into the trap” of responding, he said.

At the same time, the al-Qaradawi comments “are pouring fuel on a raging fire,” Gerges said.

The cleric is “putting a sectarian stamp on an essentially geostrategic struggle between Saudi Arabia and Iran,” he said.

A senior Israeli military officer said on Thursday the IDF tracks every heavy missile fired in the Syrian civil war, keen to study Damascus’s combat doctrines and deployments, and ready to fend off a feared first attack on Israeli territory.

Colonel Tzvika Haimovich of the air defense corps said southward launches against Syrian insurgents by President Assad’s forces gave Israel mere seconds in which to determine it was not the true target – a distinction that could prove crucial in warding off an unprecedented regional conflagration.

“Syria’s batteries are in a high state of operability, ready to fire at short notice. All it would take is a few degrees’ change in the flight path to endanger us,” he told Reuters in an interview at the air base in Palmachim, south of Tel Aviv.

Syrian opposition activists say Assad’s army has fired dozens of devastating Scud-type missiles at rebel-held areas in the last six months, out of a ballistic arsenal believed to number in the hundreds.

Ron Ben-Yishai, Reuters contributed to the report