WarSclerotic

‘Iran strike won’t lead to civilian disaster’ | JPost | Israel News.

Israeli expert challenges claim radioactive fallout from strike on nuclear sites will lead to humanitarian catastrophe.

Russia to send nuclear submarines to southern seas | Reuters.

(Reuters) – Russia plans to resume nuclear submarine patrols in the southern seas after a hiatus of more than 20 years following the break-up of the Soviet Union, Itar-Tass news agency reported on Saturday, in another example of efforts to revive Moscow’s military.

The plan to send Borei-class submarines, designed to carry 16 long-range nuclear missiles, to the southern hemisphere follows President Vladimir Putin’s decision in March to deploy a naval unit in the Mediterranean Sea on a permanent basis starting this year.

“The revival of nuclear submarine patrols will allow us to fulfill the tasks of strategic deterrence not only across the North Pole but also the South Pole,” state-run Itar-Tass cited an unnamed official in the military General Staff as saying.

The official said the patrols would be phased in over several years. The Yuri Dolgoruky, the first of eight Borei-class submarines that Russia hopes to launch by 2020, entered service this year.

Putin has stressed the importance of a strong and agile military since returning to the presidency last May. In 13 years in power, he has often cited external threats when talking of the need for a reliable armed forces and Russian political unity.

Fears of a nuclear confrontation between Russia and the United States has eased in recent years, and the Cold War-era foes signed a landmark treaty in 2010 setting lower limits on the size of their long-range nuclear arsenals.

But the limited numbers of warheads and delivery vehicles such as submarines that they committed to under the New START treaty are still enough to devastate the world. Putin has made clear Russia will continue to upgrade its arsenal.

Russia’s land-launched Intercontinental Ballistic Missiles (ICBMs) would fly over the northern part of the globe, as would those fired from submarines in the northern hemisphere.

Both the Borei-class submarines and the Bulava ballistic missiles they carry were designed in the 1990s, when the science and defense industries were severely underfunded.

Russia sees the Bulava as the backbone of its future nuclear deterrence, but the program has been set back by several botched launches over the past few years.

(Editing by Sonya Hepinstall)

Moscow‘s smoke screen obscures Assad’s next Syrian war moves.

Russian MiG-29M2 fighter-bomber

One minute, Russian spokesmen declare that Moscow is only filling standing contracts with Syria for the sale of weapons, i.e. – S-300 anti-air missiles; the next, that delivery will take place only in the second quarter of 2014 (ahead of Syria’s presidential election). Then, after those spokesmen previously declared that Russia would only fill outstanding arms contracts, Serge Korotkov, head of the MiG company came out with the news Friday, May 31, that a Syrian delegation was in Moscow to discuss “a new contract” for the sale of “more than 10” MiG-29 M/M2 fighters.
According to debkafile’s military sources, this Russian fighter-bomber is designed to operate in complex electronic jamming environments. It is therefore just what the Syrian army lacks for overcoming the Israeli Air Force’s ability to disable Syria’s Russian-made electronic warfare systems.
Moscow is therefore offering to provide Bashar Assad and his air force with a key resource for delivering on the statement he made in a TV interview Thursday, May 30: “We have informed all foreign parties that we will retaliate against any future Israeli attack.”
Our military and Russian sources say that the conflicting Russian statements on weapons sales to Damascus have two motives:

1.  To lay down a smoke screen for concealing the true nature and volume of the military equipment Moscow is shipping to Assad and his army by airlift. Its transports land and unload their freight at various Syrian airfields, including Aleppo and Latakia. Without the Russian and Iranian air corridors, the Syrian army would soon run out of the ammunition, spare parts and fuel, needed day to day for keeping up its war on the rebels.
2. To spread a fog fraught with Russian menace for scaring Israel, the United States, Britain, France and Turkey off any thought of military intervention in the Syrian conflict.
This too is the frame of mind Moscow is seeking to generate for June 5 when representatives of Russia, the US and the United Nations meet to prepare the ground for the Geneva conference which had been called to hammer out a political settlement of the Syrian war.  Moscow is determined to browbeat Washington into accepting Iran’s participation.
Only the UN has so far named its representatives to the preliminary meeting. They are special envoy for Syria, the Algerian diplomat Lakhdar Brahimi, and the Deputy Secretary General, US Undersecretary for Political Affairs, Jeffrey Feltman.
Some weeks ago, Brahimi was on the point of resigning his mission. He changed his mind when he saw Assad was gaining the upper hand in the way and the Obama administration unwilling to stop him except by cooperating with Moscow in calling an international conference for setting limits on Assad’s triumph.

The Algerian diplomat became convinced that without Moscow and Iran’s attendance, the conference is condemned to fail.
Most probably, therefore, the preparatory meeting will be preoccupied with settling the argument over Iran’s participation. Already, behind closed doors, Moscow, Washington and Tehran have closed the gap between them and bargaining over the format of Tehran’s attendance, whether as a separate delegation or part of the Syrian team? And will Hizballah be asked or not?
The Russians are confident they come to the event with the strongest hand. Their delegates will lead a front composed of Iran, Syria and Hizballah, which is not only united but way ahead on the war front.
In contrast, their American co-sponsors, have not been able to persuade the fractious Syrian opposition or its Gulf patrons, led by Saudi Arabia, to put in an appearance at the conference.
Unless this obstacle can be overcome, the US delegation comes to the conference without Syrian or Arab parties on its side of the table.
Israel can only watch from the sidelines.
President Vladimir Putin and his advisers feel they can safely turn up the heat in the belief that President Barack Obama will have no choice in the final reckoning but to accept the Russian-Iranian proposals for ending the Syrian war, starting with leaving Assad in power. Otherwise, Moscow is indicating that the war will escalate, fueled by the swelling input of Russian arms, and the United States will sink further in Middle East estimation.
Implicit in the Russian stance is that the Syrian war which has already spread to Lebanon thanks to Hizballah’s participation in the fighting will next spill over into Israel. Moscow is playing the S-300 missiles and MiG-29 M/M2 warplanes as pieces in its game against Israel too on the Syrian chessboard.

Blog: Why Israel will attack this summer.

Ted Belman

Report: New Iranian Missile Launchers Could Overwhelm Israeli Defenses | USNI News.

By: USNI News Editor
Friday, May 31, 2013

Iran could have enough launchers to send a salvo of medium range ballistic missiles that would overwhelm Israeli ballistic missile defense systems, according to a Wednesday report from IHS Jane’s.

A May, 26 broadcast on Iranian television showcased a collection of transporter erector launchers (TELs) capable of launching the Iranian Shahab-3 guided ballistic missiles.

“Iranian television footage showed at least 26 TELs lined up in two rows for the event, which marked their purported delivery to the Islamic Revolution Guards Corps (IRGC) Aerospace Force, which operates the country’s ballistic missiles,” according to the report.

The Shahab-3 is based on a North Korean design and is capable striking Israel from Iranian territory.

“The delivery of such a large number of missile launchers demonstrates the Islamic Republic of Iran’s self-sufficiency in designing and building the strategic system and shows the Iranian Armed Forces’ massive firepower and their ability to give a crushing response to the enemy,” Defense Minister Brigadier General Ahmad Vahidi said in a report carried by Iranian state news.

The more missiles Iran can launch at once, “the greater its chances of overwhelming defensive systems, such as Israel’s Arrow, which only have a limited number of interceptors ready to launch at incoming targets,” according to the Jane’s report

Arrow is a joint U.S.-Israel BMD system which saw its first deployment in 2000.

Despite the Iranian rhetoric, some U.S. analysts doubt Iran’s ability to overwhelm Israel’s defensive systems.

“The Iranians are very good at telling themselves they have terrific and devastating technology which a cynic or skeptic like me may doubt,” naval analyst Norman Friedman told USNI News.
“It is a lot easier to multiply [launchers] than missiles.”

The training and coordination to fire enough salvos to overwhelm a modern BMD system is substantial, former U.S. Navy Rear Adm. Tom Marfiak — the anti-air warfare commander during Desert Shield and Desert Storm — told USNI News.

“Launching a single missile from a mobile TEL is a complex task for a trained crew. Much has to go right,” Marfiak said.
“Launching a number of missiles, nearly simultaneously, from multiple TEL’s, is a good deal more complicated than just lining them up for a parade.”

Kerry: Iran election unlikely to alter nuke policy | The Times of Israel.

( Kerry threatens an “Israeli” strike.  He’s Sec of State of the US!!  What could possibly sound weaker or more pathetic? – JW )

US secretary of state says possibility of Israeli strike draws closer, Jerusalem ‘will do what it needs to do to defend itself’

Secretary of State John Kerry, right, gestures as he speaks during a news conference with German Foreign Minister Guido Westerwelle at the State Department in Washington, Friday, May 31, 2013. (photo credit: AP/Evan Vucci)

WASHINGTON (AP) — Secretary of State John Kerry said Friday he is not optimistic that Iran’s upcoming election will produce any change in the country’s nuclear ambitions, which the US and others believe are aimed at developing atomic weapons. He also reiterated the long-standing US position that it would be “unacceptable” for Iran to acquire a nuclear weapon.

Kerry’s comments came as the Obama administration again ramped up sanctions against Iran to try to force it to prove that its nuclear intentions are peaceful by cutting off much-needed outside state revenue. The sanctions target Iran’s petrochemicals industry, the largest source of funding for Iran’s nuclear program after oil.

Speaking to reporters at a joint news conference with German Foreign Minister Guido Westerwelle, Kerry said any shift in Iran’s nuclear policy will come from the country’s supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, and not the winner of the June 14 presidential election. Khamenei has final say on all state matters.

“I do not have high expectations that the election is going to change the fundamental calculus of Iran,” Kerry said. “This is not a portfolio that is in the hands of a new president or the president; it’s in the hands of the supreme leader. And the supreme leader ultimately will make that decision, I believe.”

Kerry said the US would continue to pursue a peaceful resolution to the impasse but that time is running out. He said Iran’s persistent defiance of international demands to come clean about its nuclear program makes the world more dangerous. Iran insists its nuclear program is intended for civilian energy production.

“Iran needs to understand that the clock is ticking,” he said, noting that Israel, which sees Iran as a threat to its existence, has not ruled out a unilateral military strike against Iranian nuclear facilities. “Every month it goes by gets more dangerous. And the reality is that Israel will do what it needs to do to defend itself.”

Shortly after Kerry spoke, the departments of State and Treasury unveiled the new sanctions, which also hit companies in the Gulf, Cyprus and elsewhere for helping blacklisted Iranian firms succeed in everything from securing new planes to concealing the origin of banned crude exports.

State Department spokeswoman Jen Psaki said the administration’s action “makes clear the risks involved in helping Iran evade sanctions and reaffirms that the only relief Iran will get from sanctions must come through negotiations.”

“Iran continues to ignore its international nuclear obligations, and the result of these actions has been an unprecedented international sanctions effort aimed at convincing Iran to change its behavior,” she added. “These sanctions today send a stark message that the United States will act resolutely against attempts to circumvent US sanctions. Any business that continues irresponsibly to support Iran’s energy sector or to help facilitate the nation’s efforts to evade US sanctions will face serious consequences.”

Copyright 2013 The Associated Press.