Archive for May 2013

Israel, US coordinate to thin out Syria’s weapon stockpiles

May 5, 2013

Israel, US coordinate to thin out Syria’s weapon stockpiles – Israel Opinion, Ynetnews.

Analysis: This time impact of strike, which attests to IDF’s impressive capabilities, is undeniable, leading Assad to reconsider his options; a reprisal, however, is unlikely

Published: 05.05.13, 14:07 / Israel Opinion

Following another Israeli strike – which, this time around, even Western intelligence sources had to acknowledge – it is my estimation that Israel has seized a strategic opportunity to significantly thin out Syria’s rocket cache, in coordination with the US. Such enterprises are the results of lengthy planning, excellent intelligence work and high operational capacity, which allows one to assume the strike was planned at least a few weeks in advance, and given the final go very near the time of performance.

The huge fireballs flaring up over Damascus no one could conceal. The regime of Bashar Assad, in the midst of a bitter struggle for its survival, cannot deny that Israel has attacked – to cite Western sources – a second cache stockpiling Fateh-110 missiles within 48 hours. Thus the Syrian president is trying to turn the facts to his advantage.The attack most likely targeted the Iranian rocket shipment, which was stored in two different sites. It was reported on Saturday that the Friday overnight strike was aimed at an area near the Damascus airport.

The videos released Sunday suggest the targeted area also contained rocket fuel. The Fateh-110 is a solid-fuel rocket, while the less advanced Scud rockets take liquid fuel propellants; a strike at receptacles containing the former should cause greater explosions. The strikes at liquid fuel containers were apparently carried out in coordination with the US in order to compromise Assad’s ability to launch chemical weapons. Chemical weapons are a dangerous target, as the fallout might have a disasterous impact on the civilian population, thus the preferred target are the launch facilities.

Usually, especially in Syria, the weaponry arsenals are hidden deep below the ground level. A direct hit, which triggered massive subsequent explosions, attests to an ability to crack bunkers and hit targets lying below the ground level.

Assad’s change of direction is due to the fact it is no longer possible to conceal the result of the attack. He tries to present the facts as though it were an international conspiracy where Israel is an executor carrying out tasks at the behest of the US and the Syrian insurgents. This said, the estimate in Israel is that no rebbutal will be forthcoming. A regime beset by a civil war against the rebels has no desire to enter struggle with Israel, a move which could spell its demise.

A look at arsenal of Israel, Hezbollah

May 5, 2013

A look at arsenal of Israel, Hezbollah – Israel News, Ynetnews.

While details into strike on Damascus still examined, expert analyzes Israeli weapons versus Hezbollah ammunition; from Spice-2000 to Fateh-110 missile

Yoav Zitun

Published: 05.05.13, 15:00 / Israel News

Jets which struck Syria did so while flying above Lebanese airspace and using missiles operated under stand-off technology, according to Reuters and other sources. These missiles allow for high accuracy while launching dozens of kilometers from a target.

Though Israeli confirmation of the strike was only done anonymously, analysts note that IAF arsenal includes several stand-off missile variations, among them the Popeye and the Spice-2000 – both manufactured by Rafael Advanced Defense Systems. The Spice became operational in 2003 and its use went public over the last six years.

The Spice system allows for “drop-and-forget” launch mode, meaning that once it is launched, it requires no additional guidance. The Spice can hit targets at up to 60 km.

Spice-2000: Autonomous operations, visual targeting

An autonomous missile, the Spice can be pre-programmed with a photograph of its target, and knows to hone itself in on it. The Spice is known for its destructive capabilities, its ability to perform accurately under any weather conditions, and its ability to remain neutral to attempts at disruption or deception by the enemy.

A missile expert who spoke with Ynet estimated that the Air Force used the Spice-2000 in its most recent strikes on Syria. According to the source, the Spice-2000 provides “high accuracy at low risk. It is immune to disruption, due to the fact that you provide early visual intelligence, thus making it unnecessary to use the GPS, which can be distorted.”
טיל הספייס מותקן על מטוס של חיל האוויר  (צילום: באדיבות רפאל מערכות לחימה מתקדמות בע"מ)

Spice missiles on IAF jet (Photo: Rafael Advanced Defense Systems)

The missile has another benefit, in the form of a reduced radar signature. While the Popeye has a rocket motor which burns fuel and makes it detectable, the Spice glides toward its target using wings. “This is a missile which saves on the preliminary flight over a target, makes visual contact with its target, and also avoids anti-aircraft systems,” the source said, 

Popeye: Sends video to operator

The Popeye is considered one of the big development successes of Israel’s military industry. Since its development in the 1970s and its introduction to the Air Force in 1985, it has been sold to foreign militaries including the US, India, Turkey, South Korea and Australia. Its use was first publicized in the media during the Gulf War, when a US B-52 bomber was photographed carrying it.
טיל פופאי. טכנולוגיה בשירות חיל האוויר  (צילום: באדיבות רפאל מערכות לחימה מתקדמות בע"מ)

Popeye missile (Photo: Rafael Advanced Defense Systems)

The missile can reach land targets, including missile launchers, without being exposed to enemy anti-aircraft systems. The Popeye missile has been upgraded over the years, with one of its versions, according to foreign reports, enabling launch from a submarine.

The missile head carries a television camera, allowing for it to be directed by its operator and locked onto its target, even after launching from the plane. Additionally, the Popeye’s internal navigation system leads it directly to its target. The missile carries 350 kg of explosives. It weighs 1,320 kg and is 4.5 meters in length. The Popeye can be launched against targets at sea, and is effective even at night or under adverse weather conditions.

Fateh 110: Precise, deadly, reaches Tel Aviv

A shipment of Fateh 110 missiles manufactured by Iran and meant for the Hezbollah was the target of the Israeli Air Force in an attack on Damascus International Airport on Friday, and a later attack at a military research facility north of the capital city, said Western intelligence sources Sunday morning, following the second strike.

The Fateh 110 is manufactured by Iran, and first came to view in 2001. The initial version was operational at a distance of 170 km, carrying a head of 250 kg of explosives. Since its introduction, three upgrades have taken place, all powered by solid fuel and capable of longer ranges and increased precision.

The current version shows substantial improvements over earlier productions. It went on display in Iran in 2010. According to the Iranians, it can reach a distance of 300 km and its warhead carries a half ton of explosives. In 2007, Arab and Israeli media sources reported that Hezbollah had received a number of these missiles, though the specific model was not identified.
איזה דגם היה במשלוח? רקטת פאתח 110 (צילום: AFP)

Fateh 110 missile (Photo: AFP)

Hezbollah members were reported to have visited Iran to train in the maintenance and launch of Fateh missiles, before returning to Lebanon. According to reports, the Hezbollah also received copies of the Fateh missile, manufactured in Syria under the sponsorship of Iran. The Syrian version of the Fateh 110, known as the M-600, is considered to be the most evident threat to the Israeli home front.

It is likely that the recent shipments of arms to Syria was of this version of the missile, which possess high accuracy at up to 100 meters or less of a target. According to reports, the latest Fateh missiles are capable of reaching Tel Aviv and even further south, when launched from neighboring Lebanon.

Fateh missiles are capable of “course correction,” via small wings found on their head. Running on solid fuel, they can be launched stealthily, remaining virtually hidden almost to the moment of operation. This makes the Fateh 110 difficult to target from the air.

With these qualifications, the Fateh missile is highly coveted by the Hezbollah, and Damascus has high motivation to provide them. It is likely that these missiles are also being used by the Syrian army against the rebels.

Syria, Iran warn Israel over latest attacks

May 5, 2013

Israel Hayom | Syria, Iran warn Israel over latest attacks.

Syrian information minister condemns reported Israeli attacks against Syrian targets • Syrian leadership reportedly convenes meeting to weigh retaliation options • Iran says it is willing to train Syrian army, if need be.

Yoni Hirsch, Daniel Siryoti and Israel Hayom Staff
According to the BBC, Syrian state media reports are claiming that the alleged Israeli attack proves an organic link between Israel and the Syrian rebels

|

Photo credit: Reuters [archive]

A message to Iran

May 5, 2013

Israel Hayom | A message to Iran.

Yoav Limor

Although the veil of secrecy over the strikes that occurred in Syria in recent days has not yet been lifted, something is clear: Israel appears to be working to prevent the transfer of advanced weapons to Hezbollah. Meanwhile, Syria and Hezbollah are reluctant to respond and the Obama administration continues to be passive.

Western and Arab media reports that have flowed in, some of them contradictory, paint the following picture: According to Reuters, Israel’s Diplomatic-Security Cabinet met on Thursday evening to approve a strike on a missile shipment that was headed to Hezbollah. The New York Times reported on Saturday that these were Fateh-110 missiles, manufactured in Iran. The reported attack took place at Damascus International Airport, in a warehouse operated by Hezbollah and the Iranian Revolutionary Guard’s Quds Force. Assuming these reports are credible, then one has to ask the following: Since the Iranian Fateh-110 is similar to the Syrian M-600, why did Israel attack these “game-changing” Iranian missiles, risking a response from Syria or Hezbollah, when there are hundreds of similar Syrian missiles already in Lebanon?

It’s possible that the answer is “to send a signal.”

In addition to eliminating a number of Hezbollah-bound missiles, an attack like this makes it clear to Syria, Iran and Hezbollah that Israel is serious when it says it will act to prevent the transfer of weapons from Syria to Lebanon, especially considering that Israel reportedly carried out a similar strike in January. The deeper message, directed toward Iran, is that Israel will go anywhere (including Sudan, the Gaza Strip, Syria and Lebanon) to fight against efforts to arm its enemies.

As of Sunday morning, it appears that the messages have been received and that the other side is not interested in responding to the alleged Israeli strike. In January, after Israel reportedly destroyed a shipment of SA-17 surface-to-air missiles that was apparently on its way from Syria to Lebanon, Syria and Hezbollah said they would not permit such Israeli acts to become routine. Israel has now reportedly attacked again, and there has been no response.

I believe Israel would prefer that details of its alleged attacks not be published. All reports of such attacks embarrass Syria and Hezbollah, pushing them into a corner and forcing them to respond at some point.

It seems that a U.S. official with knowledge of the details of the alleged Israeli attack was responsible for the reports that came out on Saturday. In professional jargon, this U.S. official “burned” Israel.

But it may be that the U.S. official’s real intent was to “burn” the Obama administration. American citizens, who are not familiar with the details of arms transfers from Syria to Lebanon, see Israel as fighting against the evil taking place in Syria, while the U.S. government continues to be satisfied with empty statements. It is possible that the reports of Israeli airstrikes, which follow the statement two weeks ago by an Israel Defense Forces intelligence officer that the Assad regime used chemical weapons, are pushing the U.S. government closer to a decision on whether to actively intervene in Syria.

While the geopolitical situation is becoming more complicated, if the reports are true the IDF has again notched an impressive operational achievement. A strike like this requires precise intelligence that is not easy to obtain, especially with an enemy that is alert, careful and compartmentalized, having been exposed in the past. There also had to be thorough operational planning.

This combination of intelligence and operational planning has led to a long string of successes in recent years. This is key both to preventing the arming of Israel’s enemies and providing a sharp and unequivocal response if current or future operations lead to escalation.

From Khartoum to Damascus

May 5, 2013

Israel Hayom | From Khartoum to Damascus.

Boaz Bismuth

Netanyahu’s governments, past and present, have declared Israel’s security to be their top priority. We can debate this or that action, but the track record is clear: Over the last few years, according to foreign reports, operations have been carried out that fall into this category and simultaneously send a signal to Tehran.

The attack on the convoy of anti-aircraft missiles in Syria in late January, as well as the attack on long-range surface-to-surface missiles in Syria on Thursday night (and on Sunday morning) are of a piece with the October 2012 attack on the munitions factory in Sudan.

Last November’s Pillar of Defense operation and last week’s targeted assassination of global jihad operative Haitham Ziad Ibrahim Al-Mes-hal can be added to the list. All of these acts signal Israel defending itself. The most recent events in the Middle East are an old story. Israel defends itself, alone.

The past few years have not been easy for Israel. The Arab uprising, which began in 2011, injected new hope into those who are not familiar with the region. All the while Iran’s centrifuges continued to spin.

There is not a single country where the Arab uprising propelled changes that were good for Israel, the West, or even the Arab countries themselves. And Syria, even before regime change, falls into the same category.

U.S. President Barack Obama is in an awkward spot over Syria. The red line he drew did not make much of an impression. Syrian President Bashar al-Assad is so certain that Obama won’t take action that he uses chemical weapons and transfers game-changing weapons to Hezbollah, as if the U.S.’s threats were non-existent. Obama himself said that sending American troops to Syria would not help the U.S. or Syria.

If it were up to Obama alone, without pressure from allies, he would not take action in Syria. On the other hand, he can’t ignore the increasing pressure facing his administration to take military action against Assad’s regime. In the meantime, Obama is keeping his cool.

But Israel does not have the same luxury as Obama. Israel cannot allow long-range missiles to fall into the hands of Hezbollah. Nor can Israel allow the trickling of chemical weapons into irresponsible hands. According to foreign reports, Israel’s latest actions in Syria send a message to all those who claim we want to drag America into a war. On the contrary, we can do the job ourselves. In Syria, or anywhere else.

Who dares, wins

May 5, 2013

Israel Hayom | Who dares, wins.

Zvika Fogel

Judging by foreign reports, it has been proved once again that if Israel does not implement a policy of military deterrence in the face of enemy states, no one will do it for us. Syria may not admit that a convoy or a facility was attacked on its soil, Lebanon may not admit that an attack was launched from its territory, and Hezbollah may not admit that it sustained a serious blow to its efforts to pose a missile threat to more and more Israeli cities, possibly even a chemical threat. The absence of confirmation from all these parties, coupled with Israel’s ability to control its desire to broadcast success, is the foundation of bolstering deterrence.

I have no doubt that 24 hours after the attack in Syria, at least according to foreign sources, Tehran, Damascus and Hezbollah are busy with damage control, checking for information leaks and mainly feeling frustrated at their inability to retaliate. Strikes of this kind — the kind that the foreign media likes to attribute to Israel — against Iranian scientists as well as against sensitive computers, arms convoys in Sudan, an arms-laden ship in the Red Sea and terror leaders in Damascus, in Malta or in Gaza, together prompt a degree of fear that is central to our power of deterrence.

Ever since the First Lebanon War, in which the Israel Defense Forces also fought against Syria, Israel has not had to go to war with a neighboring enemy state. Israel’s neighbors — Egypt, Jordan, Syrian and Lebanon — all of which have joined forces in the past in war against us, now no longer dare strike the opening chord of a real war. Since 1948, through four wars over the course of 34 years, Israel’s readiness to invest every effort to protect itself and its determination to protect its borders have given rise to the undisputed power of deterrence. Even if, at times, there was the odd battle cry made by an Arab leader, it was never translated into military orders to launch an actual war.

But since 1982, we have been dealing with a new type of enemy, Islamist terror, some of which has overrun entire swaths of territory, while the other part, much like a parasite, has taken advantage of the fertile ground resulting from lack of order or authority in various countries. Hundreds of books have been written by experts about the characteristics of terrorism, and the inability to defeat it militarily. Quite a few experts here in Israel have also bought into that theory, and have tried to recommend, in the capacity of so-called “gatekeepers,” to seek compromise and dialogue with terror organizations, in efforts to inspire positive motivation to reconcile.

After more than 30 years in the IDF fighting terror, I have no doubt that every time Israel takes the initiative, it increases the fear that already exists in the hearts of terror leaders and activists. Israel’s element of surprise and firepower is every terrorist’s nightmare. Every time Israel retaliates and targets the things that are most important, and most painful, to the members of the terror organizations, it creates an unbearable loss for them. The war against terror requires us to keep our finger on the trigger of deterrence every day anew. We cannot afford to let the terror organizations develop any kind of self-confidence in their ability to disrupt our lives. They need to feel persecuted at any given time, in their homes and in their travels as well as in their ability to gain power.

The latest attacks, attributed to Israel by foreign reports, took the wind out of Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah’s keffiyeh. The initiative, the determination and the ability to translate intelligence into such a quiet and accurate attack is exactly who we are. If we are wise to continue patiently with this tack as long as necessary, we could very well write a new chapter to the books on fighting terror, and spearhead a process that could prevent Islamist nations, like Iran, from using terror organizations as proxies.

We have always been a light unto the nations, and now it is time for us to stamp out the darkness that is threatening the West and keeping it stuck with its finger in the dam, rather than building a new dam.

Brig. Gen. (res.) Zvi Fogel is a former chief of staff of the IDF Southern Command.

Syrian violence reaches the coast

May 5, 2013

Syrian violence reaches the coast | The Times of Israel.

Columnists warn of Assad’s plan to ethnically cleanse Sunnis in preparation for an Alawite state

May 5, 2013, 1:51 pm This photo released on the official Facebook page of Syrian President Bashar Assad, shows Syrian president Bashar Assad, right, surrounded by bodyguards as young people, wave at him during the inauguration ceremony on Saturday of a statue dedicated to "martyrs" from Syrian universities who died in the country's two-year-old uprising and civil war, in Damascus, Syria, Saturday, May. 4, 2013 (photo credit: AP)

This photo released on the official Facebook page of Syrian President Bashar Assad, shows Syrian president Bashar Assad, right, surrounded by bodyguards as young people, wave at him during the inauguration ceremony on Saturday of a statue dedicated to “martyrs” from Syrian universities who died in the country’s two-year-old uprising and civil war, in Damascus, Syria, Saturday, May. 4, 2013 (photo credit: AP)

The latest (reportedly Israeli) strike on a site in Damascus occurred too late on Sunday morning to make it into the Arab press, which focuses its news coverage on the previous strike against an arms convoy to Hezbollah, on a massacre in the coastal city of Baniyas, and on bellicose statements emanating from Iran.

Qatari news station Al-Jazeera, which updates its website on a rolling basis, reports, “An Israeli missile attacks and explosions in Damascus.” The website leads with the Syrian account, claiming that the site attacked was a research center, and another attributed to a “Western source” claiming that the site contained advanced missiles sent from Iran to Hezbollah in Lebanon.

The station also reports on a series of explosions which reportedly targeted the 104th and 105th brigades belonging to the Syrian army 4th division on Jabel Qassioun, overlooking Damascus.

Meanwhile, Syrian media have a different take on the events. Government news agency SANA reports that the Israeli attack early Sunday morning on the scientific research site in Jamraya, northwest of Damascus, is “a clear attempt to aid the armed terrorist gangs following the losses they suffered by our glorious army in more than one location.”

“‘Sectarian cleansing’ on the coast and a looming siege of Quseir,” reads the headline of London-based daily Al-Hayat, reporting on the mass flight of Sunni Muslims from the city following a regime massacre that left at least 62 civilians dead, including 13 children.

“Events in Syria are accelerating and several elements are getting involved, at a time when massacres are beginning to indicate Syria’s partition into statelets,” reads the article.

A statement issued by Syria’s opposition coalition claimed that the arbitrary massacres on the Syrian coast “have begun to take on an ethnic form, similar to that perpetrated by the Serbian forces in Bosnia two decades ago.” The statement claimed that regime forces have begun calling on Sunni Muslim residents to leave their homes in some neighborhoods in Baniyas using loudspeakers mounted on cars.

“Mass exodus from Baniyas and Israel bombs Hezbollah missiles,” reads the headline of Saudi-owned daily A-Sharq Al-Awsat, featuring a photo of civilians fleeing following a government attack on the Raqqa province in north-central Syria.

A-Sharq Al-Awsat columnist Abdul Rahman Rashed claims on Sunday that the Baniyas massacres is unsurprising, considering that Assad is preparing to establish a sectarian Alawite state along the Syrian coast.

“It is not surprising … that the coastal city is a sectarian fault line, especially considering its geographic location amid the president’s sect. It was claimed that he insists on creating an Alawite state in the mountainous area all the way to the coast, meaning he plans to carry out large-scale crimes of annihilation and displacement in order to get rid of all the Sunni inhabitants of the region,writes Rashed.

Al-Hayat columnist Abdullah Iskandar claims in an op-ed Sunday titled “The battle of the Syrian coast,” that Syria’s predominantly Alawite coastal region has received preferential economic treatment from the Assad regime over the rest of Syria.

“[This region] expresses the sectarian divide in Syria, between a minority which seized power over four decades ago and is mostly concentrated in the the coast and its mountains; and a vast majority spread throughout the rest of the country,” writes Iskandar.

Iran makes threats, abroad and at home

The deputy commander of Iran’s revolutionary guards sent a harsh warning to Israel on Saturday, quoted in an article by Al-Hayat.

General Hussein Salami told a crowd in the northern Iranian city of Babolsar that Iran has expanded its security borders to include the eastern Mediterranean Sea, and will not hesitate to support any force that attacks Israel.

Meanwhile, A-Sharq Al-Awsat reports that Iranian Intelligence chief Haidar Maslahi warned two former Iranian presidents and potential candidates in next month’s elections, Rafsanjani and Khatemi, against sowing civil strife, “without explicitly naming them.”

Maslahi warned a leader “who was not placed under house arrest” to calculate his moves cautiously, noting that authorities had information tying him to a conspiracy against the regime.

BBC News – Syria conflict: Growing signs of Hezbollah role

May 5, 2013

BBC News – Syria conflict: Growing signs of Hezbollah role.

Along northern Lebanon’s border with Syria, allies and opponents are drawn into another country’s fight

The militant Lebanese Shia organisation, Hezbollah, has long been suspected of sending fighters across the border to help the Syrian regime of Bashar al-Assad.

Initially the only proof was the occasional funeral for a Hezbollah fighter killed in Syria and it was impossible to ascertain how many Shia fighters from Lebanon were in Syria or exactly what their role was.

Now for the first time, the BBC has seen direct evidence of Hezbollah’s role in some of the key battles as the Assad regime claims to be regaining the upper hand.

And the clearest indication of Hezbollah’s involvement has come from the group itself.

In a relatively rare televised speech on Tuesday, the group’s head, Sheikh Hassan Nasrallah, declared: “Syria has real friends who will not let it fall to the US, Israel or Islamic radicals”.

Saying that the armed opposition groups were too weak to bring down President Assad’s regime, Sheikh Nasrallah mused that when rebels were threatening to capture villages under (Syrian) government control, it was “normal to offer every possible and necessary aid to help the Syrian army”.

Hezbollah has long provided medical, logistical and practical help for Syrian refugees fleeing the fighting.

But in the last week we saw first-hand how, in some areas, Hezbollah fighters were openly and freely crossing the border between Lebanon and Syria – giving training and military support to their allies in Syria.

Historic ties

Here, in the northern Bekaa Valley, the official “border” between Lebanon and Syria means very little to many villages and communities.

Locals have traded, inter-married and moved freely across the valleys and mountains for much longer than the infamous Anglo-French (Sykes-Picot) agreement which, less than 100 years ago, carved up the Middle East along lines that barely recognised realities and relationships on the ground.

Syrian conscripts by the stream that indicates their country's border with Lebanon Syrian soldiers can be seen by the border with Lebanon

It is just across the border, in the pivotal Syrian town of Quseir, that some of the heaviest fighting is taking place.

Not far from Homs, images and testimony from Quseir suggest that Hezbollah fighters are increasingly involved in the fighting itself and in directing inexperienced, irregular pro-government troops.

The Syrian army, large and as well-equipped as it is, is undoubtedly overstretched – trying to contain a two-year-old rebellion across such a large country.

So whatever Hezbollah is able to do in Quseir, Homs and the suburbs of Damascus is an increasingly vital part of the regime’s military strategy.

Things on the ground are visibly changing.

Here, in some parts of Lebanon’s north-eastern corner, both sides of the border are now, in effect, controlled by Hezbollah and its Syrian allies. They claim to be gaining advantage.

‘Operating as one’

Under the watchful eye of the “popular local committees” we were able to get right up to and across the Syrian border.

On their side of the small stream that officially divides the two countries, Syrian conscripts looked on as we jumped across the gap to meet a contact on the other side.

The BBC's Wyre Davies interviews "Abu Mohammed", a pro-Syrian fighter Abu Mohammed claims Hezbollah is only providing indirect support to pro-Assad fighters

Abu Mohammed, a fighter with a pro-government Syrian militia unit, would only speak to us on the condition that we were inside Syria.

It was a nervy, brief encounter. The frontline of Quseir is only a few kilometres to the east and the sound of heavy shelling punctuated our interview.

In the cover of a small orchard, and surrounded by uniformed men armed with AK-47 rifles, it was apparent that in this area at least, Hezbollah, the Syrian army and pro-government militias are operating as one.

Despite evidence to the contrary, Abu Mohammed insisted that Hezbollah was not directly involved in the fighting.

“They give us logistical and medical help and they’re helping us regain territory but they’re not fighting,” said the militia leader, his face almost completely covered by a green and white scarf or keffiyeh.

“We’re defending our land from the rebels who bomb our villages. But we’ll stand up to them and they’ll get what’s coming to them,” he replied when I asked him about fears that the involvement of Lebanese groups like Hezbollah in the fighting would destabilise relations in the fractious border area.

Fighting in Lebanon

I crossed a small wooden bridge back across the stream into Lebanon as, 170ft (50m) along the road, a small unit of regular Syrian soldiers kept watch at a junction in the road.

In this area at least, the Assad regime is holding ground, even pushing back against previous rebel advances.

But the real fear is that the involvement of Hezbollah, and other Lebanese factions, means the fighting will spill over into Lebanon itself.

It is already happening.

Wyre Davies is shown a home that has been shelled in Lebanon's Bekaa Valley A rocket fired from Syria destroyed this house in Hermel, Lebanon

Well inside Lebanon, the Shia town of Hermel has been repeatedly and deliberately targeted by anti-regime rebels in Syria because it supports the Assad regime and is accused of sending fighters across the border.

Locals took me up to the roof of a three-storey house through which a considerably large rocket had crashed just days before.

Luckily no-one was hurt on that occasion but there have been civilian casualties on this side of the border, in addition to the estimated 70,000 killed by the civil war inside Syria itself.

Not everyone here is supportive of Hezbollah’s visibly active role inside Syria.

Abu Alawa is a village elder who talks fondly about the cross-border, inter-communal relationships before the fighting began.

“There are more moderate voices within the Shia community who should play a role in resolving the conflict,” Abu Alawa says. But his is almost a lone voice in an increasingly sectarian and tense region.

Deep divisions

Not only in Syria itself, but in neighbouring Lebanon, the longer the fighting continues then fault lines between Sunni and Shia Muslims are being dangerously exposed.

At Sunni mosques in Lebanon, young men are being radicalised. Particularly in cities like Tripoli, where the sectarian divisions in Syria are mirrored in the city’s own tense communities and districts, clerics fire up their followers with calls for Jihad, or holy war.

In recent weeks, several imams have publicly called on young men to sign up and head east to fight.

Critics mock the gesture as a publicity stunt but when I travelled to Tripoli to meet Sheikh Salem Rafii, he said it was a necessary response to Hezbollah’s role in the fighting.

“This is a legitimate fatwa – a ruling from God, from the Koran,” said the sheikh as we sat in his garden within sight of the mountain range that divided this part of Lebanon from Syria.

“There are oppressed people there [in Syria]. Women and children are being raped, killed and expelled. So any just Lebanese person should go and help them – and will be rewarded by God,” he said.

Lebanon’s own future is threatened by the turmoil in Syria.

The longer it continues, the more nervous the army and the interested parties on the Lebanese side of the border will get.

Geographically surrounded and historically dominated by its larger neighbour, it was perhaps too much to expect that Lebanon and its own sectarian divided factions, could ever realistically remain immune to events next door.

Israel deploys Iron Dome missile defenses in the north

May 5, 2013

Israel deploys Iron Dome missile defenses in the north | The Times of Israel.

Syrian retaliation for airstrikes is unlikely but always possible, Likud MK says hours after IAF reportedly strikes Iranian missile shipment near Damascus

May 5, 2013, 12:16 pm
Apparently bracing for possible retaliation, Israel deployed two Iron Dome missile defense batteries in the north of the country on Sunday morning, hours after it reportedly struck a shipment of Iranian missiles bound for Hezbollah near Damascus.

One Iron Dome battery was deployed in Safed and the other in Haifa. The system has proved highly effective in stopping short-range rocket fire, intercepting 84 percent of the incoming rockets from Gaza that threatened population centers and strategic targets during Operation Pillar of Defense last November.

A Syrian state TV report claimed Israeli rockets hit a military research site on the outskirts of the capital at about 2 a.m. Sunday, and smoke could be seen rising from the area, in the second such strike in 48 hours. An unnamed Israeli official told AFP the target was a shipment of Iranian made Fatah-110 missiles that were on their way from Syria to Hezbollah terrorists.

There were no official Syrian reports of casualties in either strike. An unconfirmed report on the Russia Today website cited a local Syrian journalist reporting “rumors on Syrian social media” that 300 or more soldiers stationed at military bases on Mount Qassiyoun near Damascus were killed. “Many Syrians are calling for retaliation as the possibility of a full-scale war with Israel is speculated upon,” this unconfirmed report further claimed.

Activists opposed to the Assad regime reported that a blast hit an ammunition depot in the Qassiyoun mountains late Saturday. It was not clear if that reported incident was related to any Israeli activity. According to a Syrian official who spoke to Al Arabiya, the Syrian regime uses its bases on the mountain to fire missiles at rebel targets in Damascus.

MK Tzachi Hanegbi (Likud), a former chairman of the Knesset’s Foreign Affairs and Defense Committee, said Sunday it was unlikely Syria would hit back at Israel over an airstrike inside its territory but did not rule this out. “A Syrian retaliation is always an option,” he conceded, “but apparently it was deemed to be a long shot.”

Iran’s Foreign Ministry spokesman condemned Sunday’s Israeli airstrike, but gave no hint of a possible stronger response from Tehran or its allies.

Ramin Mehmanparast was quoted Sunday by the semiofficial Fars news agency denouncing the attack on the Iranian missiles, which were believed en route to Iranian-backed Hezbollah in Lebanon. His were the first Iranian comments since Israel launched a first round of airstrikes on Friday.

Mehmanparast urged countries in the region to remain united against Israel.

The attacks signal a sharp escalation of Israel’s involvement in Syria’s more than two-year-old civil war between rebels and the forces of President Bashar Assad, a key Iranian ally.

Uzi Rubin, a missile expert and former Defense Ministry official, told the Associated Press that if the target of the reported strikes was a consignment of Fatah-110 missiles, then such weaponry did constitute a “game-changer”: Fired from Syria or south Lebanon, these missiles, he said, could reach almost anywhere in Israel with high accuracy.

LIVE BLOG: Israel launches second Syria strike in two days, sources say

May 5, 2013

LIVE BLOG: Israel launches second Syria strike in two days, sources say – Diplomacy & Defense – Israel News | Haaretz Daily Newspaper.

LIVE BLOG

6:30 P.M. Three-hour cabinet meeting on the tensions along the Syrian border, convened by Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, closes. (Barak Ravid)

6:20 P.M. AFP reports that the Arab League, which, like Egypt, sides with Syrian rebels, demanded the UN Security Council “act immediately to end Israeli attacks on Syria,” calling them a “dangerous violation of an Arab state’s sovereignty.”

5:27 P.M. Egypt’s president condemns the alleged Israeli airstrikes against Syria, calling them a violation of International law and warning they complicate the ongoing civil war in that country. Sunday’s statement Sunday from President Mohammed Morsi’s office says Egypt “strongly objects” to the bloodshed and the use of Syria’s military against its people. But it also rejects the violation of Syrian sovereignty and “exploiting its internal crisis under whatever pretext.” It says the Israeli attacks “increase the complexity of the situation.” Egypt launched an Arab bid to bring a peaceful end to the 2-year-old civil war that pits President Bashar Assad against rebels trying to oust him, but little came of it. Morsi’s office says the Israeli attacks are a “real test” for the international community’s commitment to respecting international law. (AP)

5:25 P.M. Airspace over northern Israel and Haifa area closed off to civilian flights (Zohar Blumenkrantz)

5:12 P.M. Deputy Defense Minister Danny Danon, speaking for the first time since the alleged Israeli strike, said “The State of Israel is protecting its interests and will continue doing so. I am not confirming or denying the reports.” In an interview with Army Radio, Danon continued, “We have said on various occasions in the past that we will do everything anywhere in order to protect those interests.’

4:53 P.M. Syrian Information Minister Omran Zoabi says Israeli air strikes against three targets on the outskirts of Damascus “opens the door to all possibilities.” The minister’s comments at a press conference came after an emergency cabinet meeting organized to respond to alleged Israeli strikes. (Reuters)

4:11 P.M. Free Syria Army spokesman Loay al-Mikdad: We condemn Israeli aggression in Syrian territory, but have no connection to it … The regime will continue making idle threats like it has done so for 42 years … The Assad regime is on its way out despite all its efforts to divert attention away. (Jack Khoury)

15:49 P.M. The Syrian Foreign Ministry sent a letter Sunday to the United Nations and the UN Security Council that “Israeli aggression” killed and wounded several people and “caused widespread destruction.” It also condemned the alleged Israeli airstrikes, saying the attacks aim “to give direct military support to terrorist groups” fighting the government. Syria’s government refers to rebels trying to topple President Bashar Assad’s regime as “terrorists.” (AP)

15:38 P.M. Iran’s ground forces commander, General Ahmad Reza Pourdastan was quoted as saying on Sunday that the Islamic Republic would support Syria’s army with help in training, Al Arabiya reported. “As a Muslim nation, we back Syria, and if there is need for training we will provide them with the training, but won’t have any active involvement in the operations,” he was cited by the Iranian IRNA news agency as saying. (Haaretz)

2:56 P.M. Lebanese media is quoting Seyed Hassan Firouzabadi, the chief of staff of the Iranian armed forces, as saying: “Resistance forces will respond to the Israeli aggression… Iran will not allow Israel destabilize the region.” (Jack Khoury)

2:52 P.M. Residents in the northern city of Kiryat Shmona express concern over the tensions, but the security alert has not been raised and people are continuing along with their normal daily routine. “There is a feeling of tension when we hear about what is happening in the area,” says Kiryat Shmona Mayor Rabbi Nissim Malka. “Residents are calling the municipal hotline and ask questions like ‘are the shelters open’ or ‘are classes being held as usual’? We are calming everyone who calls and continuing daily routines. The IDF is doing its work and we will continue with our lives.

Mayor Malka also says the city’s soccer team will compete for the national cup this week as planned, adding: “We will win the national cup and show it to [Hezbollah chief Hassan] Nasrallah, to show him that were are continuing to live here.” (Eli Ashkenazi)

2:39 P.M. ‫British Foreign Secretary William Hague on Sunday said that although there was no official confirmation that the attack in Syria was carried out but Israel, the U.K. understands Israel’s need to defend itself.

“… Israel has made very clear that it will act if it believes that important weapons systems are being transferred to Hezbollah,” Hague told Sky News. . “Israel will act to protect its national security, we do have to respect that,” he added.

The British prime minister warned of the growing threat to peace in the region as a result of the crisis in Syria and said that the “longer this [civil war] goes on, the stronger the case becomes for lifting the arms embargoes” against the Syrian opposition. (Haaretz)

2:25 P.M. Foreign reports claimed Israel carried out the attacks against Syria from Lebanese airspace in order to reduce the aircraft’s exposure to Syrian air defense systems. In such cases, the Israel Air Force can use so-called standoff missile it possess. (Gili Cohen)

1:47 P.M. Syria’s Deputy Foreign Minister Faisal al Mekdad said on CNN that the attack on the Syrian military facility near Damascus is a ‘declaration of war’ by Israel. (Haaretz)

1:30 P.M. Lebanon’s Foreign Minister Adnan Mansour condemns “the Israeli aggression and the silence of the international community.” Mansour added that “it’s time that the Arab League take a clear stand in light of the repeated Israeli aggression against Arab countries.” (Jack Khoury)

1:00 P.M. Sky News reports that Syria senior officials are currently holding a security assessment meeting in Damascus, discussing possible reactions to weekend strikes. (Jack Khoury)

12:44 P.M. Netanyahu convenes a special security cabinet meeting at 2:30 P.M. in order to hold a final security assessment, before he sets out to China. Due to the meeting, the prime minister’s flight will be delayed by 2 hours and is scheduled to depart at 7 P.M. In Netanyahu absence, Defense Minister Moshe Ya’alon will serve as acting prime minister. (Barak Ravid)

12:15 A.M. Despite tension along the northern border Netanyahu is still scheduled to set out for China on Sunday evening, the Prime Minister’s Office confirmed Sunday morning. (Barak Ravid)

12:00 A.M. Kadima head MK Shaul Mofaz, said that the Israeli line is to prevent advanced weapons from falling in the hands of Hezbollah. Mofaz said that military operations such as the alleged strikes send a message of deterrence to Iran and to other enemies of the State of Israel. The former IDF chief and defense minister said that Iran is trying to help Hezbollah to increase its influence in the region now that the Syria regime is collapsing. (Israel Radio)

11:30 A.M. IDF deploys two Iron Dome batteries near the cities of Haifa and Safed in northern Israel, amid tension along Israel’s northern border. The IDF Spokesperson’s Unit said in a statement: “Iron Dome batteries are deployed from time to time in different locations across the country according to security assessments. The system is currently being deployed in the northern region.” (Amos Harel, Gili Cohen)

11:20 A.M. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu made no comment on the alleged Israeli strikes on Syria at the opening of Sunday’s weekly cabinet meeting, but only reiterated that he is committed to the security of Israel. This was the first time the Israeli prime minister has spoken in public since the alleged Israeli strikes over the past two days. (Haaretz)

11:08 A.M. Syrian TV reports that people were wounded in the overnight strike, without providing further details. According to the report, loud explosions were heard at a scientific research center in the Jamariya area, and the explosions were the result of Israeli fire. The report said that Israel is starting to get directly involved in Syria. (Jack Khoury)

11:07 A.M. Lebanon’s Al-Manar TV reported Sunday morning that the Israeli attack hit weapons and ammunition warehouses and air defense centers. The Hezbollah backed news channel said that the research institute was not damaged, but that a logistics warehouse belonging to the Syrian military was hit. Al-Manar also reported that Syrian air defense succeeded in hitting an Israeli plane over Jamariya. (Jack Khoury)

11:01 A.M. Iran condemned an Israeli attack on Syria and urged countries in the region to stand against the action, the Fars news agency reported on Sunday.

The report paraphrased Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesman Ramin Mehmanparast as saying Iran condemned the strike and said it was part of an effort by Israel to create instability and insecurity in the region. He urged countries in the region to stand against the “assault,” Fars reported.‬ (Reuters)

10:55 A.M. IDF Home Front Command postpones nation-wide defense exercise due to reports of strike in Syria. (Gili Cohen)

10:51 A.M. Syria state TV claims the alleged strike was meant to support the rebels fighting President Bashar Assad. “The new Israeli attack is an attempt to raise the morale of the terrorist groups which have been reeling from strikes by our noble army,” it said. The report added that the time of the strike was coordinated with the rebels. (Jack Khoury)

10:30 A.M. A report by AFP quotes a senior Israeli source confirming the overnight attack. The source was speaking on condition of anonymity.‬ (Haaretz)

10:11 A.M. For more than two years, Israel has avoided the troubled waters of the changing Arab world, Haaretz analyst Amos Harel writes. The two recent attacks in Syria may herald the end of this period.

9:30 A.M. “What we see in Syria, if indeed it occurred, shows a very high level of intelligence and military capabilities,” former IDF Military Intelligence chief Maj. Gen. (res.) Amos Yadlin told Army Radio.

Yadlin justified the attack, saying that both Iran and Hezbollah violate UN Security Council resolution 1701 that ended the Second Lebanon War. “The strikes allow the Syrians to say that the attack isn’t targeting them, but Iranian arms bound for Hezbollah, and Hezbollah can say that the attack was in Syria and not on their land. The fact that no one is taking responsibility [for the strikes] allows room for deniability. The [Syrian] regime knows that he is threatened by rebels, a confrontation with Israel would put it in a very tough spot. The rebels hate Assad much more than Israel.”

Yadlin said that he doesn’t expect Syria to retaliate. “A confrontation with Israel would bring more danger, not responding would let Assad maintain the upper hand in the fight against the rebels.” (Haaretz)

9:10 A.M. An intelligence official in the Middle East has confirmed that Israel launched a second airstrike in just the past days Syria and confirmed that the target was a shipment of advanced guided Iranian-made missiles. (AP)

8:48 A.M. The British-based Syrian Observatory for Human Rights said the scale of the attack meant it was beyond the military capability of Syrian rebels, and quoted eyewitnesses in the area as saying they saw jets in the sky at the time of the blasts.

The Observatory said the blasts hit Jamraya as well as a nearby ammunition depot. Other activists said a missile brigade and two Republican Guard battalions may also have been targeted in the heavily militarised area just north of Damascus. (Reuters)

7:20 A.M Western intelligence sources confirmed on Sunday morning that both the overnight strike and Friday’s attack on Syria targeted an Iranian missile shipment intended for Hezbollah. (Gili Cohen)

Only a few days after an alleged Israeli strike, Syrian media reports IAF struck a military research center; Western intel sources say target was a Fateh-110 surface-to-surface missile shipment; Israel declines to comment; Syria state TV: Israeli strike a desperate attempt to raise rebels’ morale.

By | May.05, 2013 | 12:45 PM | 5

Large explosions rocked Damascus early Sunday morning, Syrian media reported. The Syrian news outlet blamed Israel for the rocket strike, which targeted a military research center in Jamraya near Damascus.

The reports followed confirmations by anonymous Israeli officials on Saturday morning that the Israeli Air Force carried out a strike against Syria early Friday that targeted a shipment of advanced missiles bound for Hezbollah. U.S. officials said the strike targeted Iranian Fateh-110 missiles headed for Hezbollah, according to a New York Times report.

On Sunday, Western intelligence sources said that both strikes over the weekend targeted Fateh-100 missile shipments sent from Iran for Lebanon‘s Hezbollah. U.S. President Barack Obama on Saturday said Israel has the right to guard against the transfer of advanced weapons to Hezbollah.