WarSclerotic

Syrian troops take full control of strategic town – Alarabiya.net English | Front Page.

Charles Krauthammer: Pink line over Damascus – Hornell, NY – Hornell Evening Tribune.

You know you’re in trouble when you can’t even get your walk-back story straight. Stung by the worldwide derision that met President Obama’s fudging and fumbling of his chemical-weapons red line in Syria, the White House leaked to The New York Times that Obama’s initial statement had been unprepared, unscripted and therefore unserious.

The next day Jay Carney said precisely the opposite: “Red line” was intended and deliberate.

Which is it? Who knows? Perhaps Obama used the term last August to look tough, sound like a real world leader, never expecting that Syria would do something so crazy. He would have it both ways: sound decisive but never have to deliver.

Or perhaps he thought that Syria might actually use chemical weapons one day, at which point he would think of something.

So far he’s thought of nothing. Instead he’s backed himself into a corner: Be forced into a war he is firmly resolved to avoid, or lose credibility, which for a superpower on whose word relies the safety of a dozen allies is not just embarrassing but dangerous.

In his rambling news conference, Obama said that he needed certainty about the crossing of the red line to keep the “international community” behind him. This is absurd. The “international community” is a fiction, especially in Syria. Russia, Iran and Hezbollah are calling the shots.

Nor, he averred, could he act until he could be sure of everything down to the “chain of custody” of the sarin gas.

What is this? “CSI: Damascus”? It’s a savage civil war. The antagonists don’t exactly stand down for forensic sampling.

Some countries have real red lines. Israel has no real friends on either side of this regional Sunni-Shiite conflict, but it will not permit the alteration of its strategic military balance with Hezbollah, already brimming with 60,000 rockets aimed at Israel.

Everyone in the region knows that the transfer of chemical weapons to Hezbollah or the acquisition of the Fateh-110, with the accuracy and range to hit the heart of Tel Aviv, is a red line. Hence the punishing Israeli airstrikes around Damascus on advanced weaponry making its way to Hezbollah.

The risk to Israel is less a counterattack from Damascus than from Hezbollah. Bashar al-Assad doesn’t need a new front with Israel. Syria remembers not just its thorough defeat at the hands of Israel in 1967 and 1973 but also its humiliation in the skies over the Bekaa Valley in 1982 when it challenged Israeli air dominance. In a two-day dogfight, Israel shot down 60 Syrian planes and lost none.

Israel’s real concern is a Hezbollah attack. But Hezbollah has already stretched itself in by sending fighters into Syria to save Assad. And it knows that war with Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu would be far more devastating than its 2006 war with the tepid and tentative Ehud Olmert.

Most important, Iran, Hezbollah’s master, wants to keep Hezbollah’s missile arsenal intact and in reserve for retaliation against — and thus deterrence of — a possible Israeli attack on Iran’s nuclear program.

These are complicated, inherently risky calculations. But living in the midst of this cauldron, Israel has no choice. It must act.

America does have a choice. It can afford to stay out. And at this late date, it probably will.

Early in the war, before the rise of the jihadists to dominance within the Syrian opposition, intervention might have brought down Assad and produced a decent successor government friendly to the U.S. and non-belligerent to its neighbors.

Today our only hope seems to be supporting and arming Salim Idriss, the one rebel commander who speaks in moderate, tolerant tones. But he could easily turn, or could be overwhelmed by the jihadists. As they say in the Middle East, you don’t buy allies here. It’s strictly a rental.

Israel’s successful strikes around Damascus show that a Western no-fly zone would not require a massive Libyan-style campaign to take out all Syrian air defenses. Syrian helicopters and planes could be grounded more simply with attacks on runways, depots and idle combat aircraft alone, carried out, if not by fighters, by cruise missile and other standoff weaponry.

But even that may be too much for a president who has assured his country that the tide of war is receding. At this late date, supporting proxies may be the only reasonable option left. It’s perversely self-vindicating. Wait long enough, and all other options disappear. As do red lines.

Charles Krauthammer’s email address is letters@charleskrauthammer.com.

The Washington Post Writers Group

Turkey blames world’s ‘silence’ on Syria for attacks – Alarabiya.net English | Front Page.

( “World” = US. – JW )

Syrian conflict nears Turkey, threatening to spark ethnic upheaval – Diplomacy & Defense – Israel News | Haaretz Daily Newspaper.

The explosions near the Syrian border that claimed 46 lives exacerbated tensions between between locals and Syrian refugees – and among Hatay Province’s ethnic groups.

A woman cries during the funerals of victims of twin car bombings in the town of Reyhanli of Hatay province near the Turkish-Syrian border May 12, 2013. Photo by Reuters

Ethnic tensions among Turkey’s ethnic groups and between Turkish citizens and Syrian refugees came to a head after twin car bombings killed 46 people and wounded more than 100 in the Turkish border city of Reyhanli Saturday. The bombings occurred days before Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s planned trip to Washington Thursday to discuss with United States President Barack Obama how to prevent the Syrian civil war from undermining stability in the entire region.

Turkish citizens in Reyhanli shouted at Syrian refugees gathered to aid those wounded in the inferno of the bomb blasts Saturday, telling them to get out of town. Syrian doctors who work in the local hospital were asked to hastily return to their homes and drivers who arrived in the city with cars from Syria were asked to remove their Syrian license plates. The lethal twin blasts quickly drew hundreds of Turkish soldiers and police to the city, which straddles the Turkish-Syrian border, fearing not only an outbreak of violence against thousands of Syrian refugees, but also the eruption a sectarian war in Turkey’s Hatay Province.

The province is home to a mosaic of different ethnic groups and languages. Arabic-speaking Turkish citizens live there – both Sunni Muslims and Alawites (who are not identical to Syrian Alawites) – along with Kurds and other minorities. Together, they have lived routine lives for decades, even though some of them view the region as a “stolen” part of Syria, which Turkey annexed in 1939.

Thousands of Syrians have joined the region’s local population in the past two years, adding to the 300,000 to 350,000 Syrian refugees now living in Turkey. Local residents have claimed in Turkish media that the refugees have begun to act as if they control the area, instead of like guests. “They have eaten in restaurants without paying,” residents told Turkish media. “They have received medical care at the expense of area residents while Turkish citizens have been forced to wait and they have brought with them the social ills of Syrian society including prostitution and drug trafficking.”

The tension between the refugees and residents has thickened as Turkish citizens have accused the refugees, who have unrestricted freedom of movement, of theft and robbery, harassing women and, more fundamentally, upsetting the demographic balance of the province. Most of the refugees are Sunni Muslims, while a large portion of the province’s Turkish residents are Alawite, who in contrast with the Turkish government, support the Assad regime and have even held several demonstrations in support of the Syrian regime. Sunni Turkish citizens have claimed that the Assad regime is trying to recruit Turkish Alawites to the Syrian civil war or at least as intelligence agents to report on the movement of Syrian refugees. The result is that the tension and suspicion that characterize relations between the refugees and Turkish citizens have begun affecting relations between Turkish Alawites and Sunnis, contributing to several violent brawls between the two Turkish groups.

The Turkish reconciliation initiative with the Kurdistan Workers’ Party, known by its initials as the PKK, has been recently added to this volatile brew. The plan has provoked opposition among nationalistic Turkish elements as well as Kurdish extremists. In line with the plan, armed Kurds began leaving the country, and when the process ends, negotiations will begin regarding the package of rights Turkey’s Kurds will receive to strengthen their cultural identity. This plan is perceived by nationalist groups as a Turkish surrender to terror and as “abandoning the blood that was spilled.” They do not believe it will bring peace and tranquility to the country. Within Turkey’s ruling Justice and Development Party, many believe these groups have an interest in undermining the country’s stability, as evidenced by the continuing terror activities. Even before Erdogan singled out “Syrian elements” or Syria’s intelligence agency, the Mukhabarat, he said someone wanted to undermine the reconciliation process and this person was responsible for the terror attacks.

In the meantime, one of Erdogan’s deputies, Besir Atalay, reported that Turkish intelligence already knows who carried out the terror attacks and that they were Turkish citizens not Syrians. This contrasts with a statement by Erdogan’s other deputy prime minister, Bulent Arınc, who stated that the identity of the attackers is still being ascertained. But it is not the identity of those who carried out the attack that is important, but who planned the attacks and why.  The finger of blame is pointed toward Syria as the party with a direct interest in exporting its own war to its neighbors, particularly Turkey and Jordan, to prove Assad’s claim that without him the entire region will go up in flames. But even if this hypothesis is correct, there are more than a few Turkish figures who want to utilize the terror attacks to promote their own political agendas. This is what concerns Erdogan, who is preparing for his trip to Washington Thursday, where he will meet with U.S. Presidents Barack Obama.

Erdogan will try to persuade Obama to expand American involvement in Syria and announce the establishment of no-fly zones on Syrian territory to aid in the creation of sanctuary areas for Syrian refugees. Only in this way, Erdogan thinks, will it be possible to return Syrian refugees from neighboring states and cool off the volcano that is about to blow in Lebanon, Turkey and Jordan. It appears that this time Erdogan will succeed in persuading Obama, given that the American administration has already recognized the need to provide military aid to the Syrian opposition and that the odds are low that an international conference will be convened to solve the crisis, as was jointly proposed by U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry and Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov.

Turkey says it won’t be drawn into Syria conflict – Israel News, Ynetnews.

Erdogan insists Syria is trying to drag Turkey into conflict; vows his country will not take part in ‘bloody quagmire,’ but clarifies that ‘those who attack Turkey will be held to account’

News agencies

Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan said Sunday that Turkey will not fall for a “dirty scenario” and be dragged into the conflict with Syria.

Erdogan was speaking a day after twin car bombs ripped through the Turkish border town of Reyhanli, killing 46 people – an attack that Turkish officials blamed on fighters with links to Assad’s administration.

The Turkish prime minister added “we have to maintain our extreme cool-bloodedness in the face of efforts and provocations to drag us into the bloody quagmire in Syria.”

Davutoglu (Photo: AFP)

“Those who attack Turkey will be held to account sooner or later,” he added.

According to officials, nine Turkish citizens believed to be linked to the Syrian intelligence agency, have been detained in connection with the bombings

Earlier Sunday, Turkish Foreign Minister Ahmet Davutoglu said it was time for the international community to take action against Syrian President Bashar Assad, with the security risks in Turkey and Syria’s other neighbors mounting.

Syria on rejected Turkey’s allegations that it was behind two car bombs in Turkey.

Russia staffs Mediterranean fleet. Turkey weighs payback for Syrian bombings.

Russian nuclear submarine

Russian Navy Admiral Viktor Chirkov said Sunday, May 12, that the process is underway for creating a permanent staff to run Russian fleet operations in the Mediterranean Sea.  Speaking at Sevastopol, the Black Sea fleet’s home port, Adm. Chirkov said a staff of 20 officers was already in place. And the Mediterranean deployment would comprise five to six warships and their service vessels as well possibly as nuclear submarines which, say our military sources, are armed with nuclear ballistic missiles.

debkafile’s military sources: The new permanent deployment is the next Russian step for safeguarding Bashar Assad’s regime in Damascus and deterring military attacks on his Hizballah allies and Iranian interests in their three-way bloc.
Moscow is also announcing loud and clear that Russia is finally restoring its military presence to the Middle East in 2013 after the last Soviet squadron exited the Mediterranean in 1992.

The Russian naval step came 24 hours after two car bombs reduced to rubble the center of the Turkish town of Reyhanli near the Syrian border, killing 46 people and injuring scores. Turkish ministers at the scene Sunday openly blamed Syrian military intelligence for the attack’s planning and execution.

This raised concerns in Moscow that Ankara was preparing to deliver a serious reprisal, possibly in the form of an aerial or missile assault, on Syrian military targets.

Russian tacticians reckoned that, after Israel’s two air strikes against Assad regime targets, the Tayyip Erdogan’s government could hardly avoid direct action without appearing to be failing in courage in the eyes of the Turkish public.
Some action is doubly pressing as Prime Minister Erdogan prepares to travel to Washington to meet President Barack Obama on May 16 and present him with evidence that Assad has used chemical weapons in his war on Syrian rebels.

The Reyhanli bombings and Turkey’s potential retaliation sent a fresh wave of alarm across the Syrian neighborhood. Once again, Israeli Air Force warplanes thundered Sunday across South Lebanon and over Hizballah strongholds in the eastern Beqaa Valley near the Syrian border.
Given all these circumstances, Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu’s chances are virtually nil of getting anywhere in his trip to the Black Sea resort of Sochi to persuade President Vladimir Putin to hold back advanced S-300 anti-air missiles from Syria. He can expect to find the Russian president driving full speed for arms deals – not just with Syria, but also with Iraq, Yemen and Sudan.
Putin clearly regards Obama’s decision to keep the US clear of military involvement in the Syrian conflict as an open gateway for a Russian military comeback to the Middle East after a 21-year absence, armed with a cornucopia of weapons for winning clients. For now, there is no stopping him, not even if Turkey or Israel were to embark themselves on military intervention.

DEBKAfile May 12, 2013, 4:16 PM (GMT+02:00)

( Is this the shit hitting the fan? – JW )

Various Lebanese sources report intense Israeli military activity Sunday along the Israeli-Syrian and Lebanese borders. Witnesses describe Israeli warplanes as making aerial passes over south Lebanon, ground forces moving along the Golan border with Syria and attack helicopters flying over Mts Hermon and Dov and the Shaaba Farms.

via Lebanese sources: Intense Israeli air, ground activity.

After the Damascus Attack: Ten Points to Consider – Defense Update – Military Technology & Defense News.

One week has passed since the attacks near Damascus, which according to American sources destroyed advanced Fateh-110 surface-to-surface missiles making their way from Iran to Hizbollah in Lebanon. Now that the dust has settled and it seems as if the strike was contained – there was no immediate response either from Syria or Hizbollah – one can point to some initial conclusions. At the same time, it is entirely possible that we are in the midst of a greater crisis, both in terms of a belated reprisal and especially in terms of the probability that more red lines will be crossed and that further attacks could lead to an escalation on the northern border. This essay assumes, as reported in foreign sources, that the Damascus attack was carried out by Israel.

Reports: IAF jets fly low over southern Lebanon – Israel News, Ynetnews.

Lebanese channel also says Israeli helicopters, patrols are observed in the area

Roi Kais

Lebanese media reported Israeli Air Force warplanes were hovering since Sunday noon over southern Lebanon and conducting mock attacks at a low altitude. The report comes one week after Israel allegedly launched a series of airstrikes at military research facilities around Damascus from Lebanese territory.

According to the report by Lebanese news channel Al-Nashra, four F-16 jets circled low over the Lebanon-controlled territories of the Hermon Mountain, the towns of Marjeyoun and Khiam in southern Lebanon, and the western Beqaa Valley of Lebanon. It was also reported that Israeli helicopters flew over the Shebaa Farms and the Golan Heights, and that IDF patrols were also observed in the border area.

A Western intelligence source said last week that the alleged Israeli strike against several critical military facilities targeted Iranian-supplied missiles to Hezbollah.

Earlier on Sunday Syria‘s Information Minister Omran al-Zoubi has rejected Turkey’s allegations that his country was behind two car bombs that killed 43 people in Turkey and wounded dozens more. The minister told a news conference Sunday that “no one has the right to make false accusations.”

Israel Hayom | From Moscow to Damascus.

Boaz Bismuth