Archive for May 2013

Netanyahu to Putin: ‘Your missile sales to Assad could trigger war’

May 16, 2013

Netanyahu to Putin: ‘Your missile sales to Assad could trigger war’ | The Times of Israel.

PM says sophisticated S-300 system has no relevance for Syrian regime’s civil-war battles, but that its delivery by Moscow could prompt an Israeli response, Channel 2 reports

May 15, 2013, 9:19 pm
A Russian S-300 anti-aircraft missile system on display in an undisclosed location in Russia (photo credit: AP)

A Russian S-300 anti-aircraft missile system on display in an undisclosed location in Russia (photo credit: AP)

Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu reportedly warned Russian President Vladimir Putin on Tuesday that Moscow’s sale of a sophisticated missile defense system to President Bashar Assad could push the Middle East into war.

Netanyahu, who flew to meet Putin for emergency talks in the Black Sea resort of Sochi, told the Russian president that the S-300 had no relevance to Assad’s civil-war battles against rebel groups, and urged Moscow not to deliver the systems, Channel 2 reported on Wednesday night.

He said that if acquired by Assad, the S-300 — a state-of-the-art system that can intercept fighter jets and cruise missiles — “is likely to draw us into a response, and could send the region deteriorating into war,” the Channel 2 report said.

Russia’s Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov, asked last week about possible sales of the S-300 to Assad, said cagily: “Russia is not planning to sell. Russia has been selling for a long time, has signed contracts and is completing deliveries of technology that consists of anti-aircraft systems.”

Lavrov said the weapons were to help Syria defend itself against air attacks. Israel suspects that Russia plans to sell Damascus six S-300 missile batteries, as well as 144 missiles, the Wall Street Journal reported Thursday.

Russian President Vladimir Putin, right, listens to Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu during their meeting at the Bocharov Ruchei residence in the Black Sea resort of Sochi, Russia, Tuesday, May 14, 2013. (photo credit: AP/ Maxim Shipenkov)

Russian President Vladimir Putin, right, listens to Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu during their meeting at the Bocharov Ruchei residence in the Black Sea resort of Sochi, Russia, Tuesday, May 14, 2013. (photo credit: AP/ Maxim Shipenkov)

Netanyahu, who flew to meet Putin despite have only just returned from a trip to China, took with him his National Security Adviser Yaakov Amidror and the head of military intelligence in the IDF Maj. Gen. Aviv Kochavi. Deputy Foreign Minister Ze’ev Elkin went too, to help with translations.

Netanyahu also briefed Putin on Israel’s intel assessment of Assad’s alleged chemical weapons use. He also filled the president in on Israel’s information concerning Syria’s transfer of arms to Hezbollah.

At a brief joint press conference, the Russian president said that the only way to resolve the crisis was via “the soonest end to armed conflict and the beginning of political settlement.”

He added: “At this sensitive moment, it’s particularly important to avoid any action that could destabilize the situation.”

Netanyahu, however, said that the volatile situation in the Middle East requires action to improve security. “The region around us is very unstable and explosive, and therefore I am glad for the opportunity to examine together new ways to stabilize the area and bring security and stability to the area,” he said. The prime minister’s bottom line was that “Israel will do whatever it takes to defend its citizens.”

Russia has continued to ship weapons to Syria, despite the civil war there, but it so far has refrained from providing Damascus with the S-300s, which has a range of up to 200 kilometers (125 miles), and the capability to track down and strike multiple targets simultaneously with lethal efficiency.

The weapon would mean a quantum leap in Syria’s air defense capability, including against neighboring countries.

Israel reportedly attacked suspected shipments of advanced Iranian weaponry — the Fateh-110 surface-to-surface missile — in Syria with back-to-back airstrikes this month. Israeli officials signaled there would be more attacks unless Syria refrains from trying to deliver such “game-changing” missiles to Hezbollah. Hezbollah said weapons shipments won’t cease.

On Monday, Israeli Tourism Minister Uzi Landau accused Russia of destabilizing the Middle East by selling weapons to Assad’s regime. “Anyone who provides weaponry to terror organizations is siding with terror,” Landau said.

Kremlin: No Russian pledge on Syrian missile arms sale

May 16, 2013

Kremlin: No Russian pledge on Syrian missile arms sale – Diplomacy & Defense – Israel News | Haaretz Daily Newspaper.

In meeting with Netanyahu, Putin did not commit not to provide Damascus with S-300 missiles systems, spokesman says; leaders agree to strengthen intelligence cooperation.

By | May.15, 2013 | 7:14 PM |Netanyahu and Putin attend a news conference in Sochi, May 14, 2013.

Netanyahu and Putin attend a news conference in Sochi, May 14, 2013. Photo by Reuters

Russian President Vladimir Putin did not promise Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu that his country would not provide Syria with advanced S-300 anti-aircraft systems, Kremlin spokesman said on Tuesday.

Speaking after a three-hour meeting between the two leaders in the resort city of Sochi on the Black Sea coast, spokesman Dmitry Peskov added that Putin stressed that Russia’s stance on the missile sale has not changed.

The missile sale to Syria was one of the key issues raised by Netanyahu during his meeting with Putin. Israel fears delivery to the Syrian military of such advanced missiles, with a range of 200 kilometers, could alter the regional military balance of power and significantly limit the Israeli air force’s ability to operate both in
Syria and in Lebanon.

Peskov said Israel and Russia held in-depth talks, “including on sensitive security issues.” “The Israeli side raised the issue of the S-300 missiles once again, and we presented our stance on the matter,” he said. “They are familiar with it and have heard it once again.”

Last Friday, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said Moscow had no new plans to sell an advanced air defense system to the government of Syrian President Bashar Assad, but left open the possibility that it could ship such systems to Damascus under an existing contract.

Netanyahu arrived in Sochi on Tuesday morning and returned to Israel shortly before Shavuot. Accompanying Netanyahu were National Security Adviser Yaakov Amidror, Deputy Foreign Minister Ze’ev Elkin and Netanyahu’s military secretary Eyal Zamir. An unusual addition to Netanyahu’s entourage was Maj. Gen. Aviv Kochavi, the IDF’s military intelligence chief. A senior Israeli official said that during the meeting with Putin, Kochavi presented Israel’s fresh intelligence concerning the situation in Syria.

Details of Kochavi’s briefing are unclear, but the intelligence he presented probably concerns chemical weapons and their use against the rebels in Syria’s civil war. Kochavi also provided information on the transfer of sophisticated arms from Syria to Hezbollah in Lebanon.

Accompanying Putin in Sochi were the director of Russia’s Foreign Intelligence Service (SVR) Mikhail Fradkov, as well as several senior officials at the Russian Defense Ministry who are involved with the arms sales to Syria. Putin said at the end of the meeting that Netanyahu and him agreed to further discuss  the Syrian issue in person and to tighten intelligence cooperation between the two countries on this issue.

The war over preemption

May 16, 2013

The war over preemption | JPost | Israel News.

Why would Hassan Nasrallah, the leader of the Lebanese Hezbollah organization, need more missiles to menace Israeli cities?

Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah

Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah Photo: REUTERS/ Ahmad Shalha
Why would Hassan Nasrallah, the leader of the Lebanese Hezbollah organization, need more missiles to menace Israeli cities if, as Israel claims, he had already amassed more than 50,000 rockets and missiles capable of reaching its population centers?
The answer is that he does not. The solid-fuel, highly accurate, long-range (300 km) Fateh-110 missiles, armed with half-ton warheads, which was reportedly targeted by the IAF in the latest strike in Syria were not meant to attack Israeli cities. The Fateh-110 is a counter-force weapon designed to attack high value, pinpoint military and strategic targets. Indeed, it is all but certain that the provision of such missiles by Iran to Hezbollah is another step in the undeclared Israeli- Iranian war over preemption already underway.Specifically, by equipping Hezbollah with the latest version of Fateh-110 – the MOD 4 – Iran is hoping to accomplish three strategic goals: First, to deter Israel from launching a preemptive strike on its nuclear facilities by holding hostage Israel’s Dimona reactor as well as other strategic installations identified in the foreign press as housing the Israeli nuclear arsenal and/or its delivery platforms. In this way, Iran makes a direct connection between attacking its nuclear facilities and the survival of Israel’s bomb-in-the-basement posture.

As well, Tehran is signaling Washington that any thought of a surgical strike on Iranian facilities is a dangerous hallucination as the outcome would be a nuclear catastrophe in the Middle East, given Iran’s ability to accurately attack Israeli nuclear installations via Hezbollah’s upgraded missiles. Thus Washington should do its utmost to restrain its “lunatic” Israeli ally and refrain from any aggressive designs of its own against the Islamic Republic.

Second, by providing its Lebanese proxies with highly accurate missiles the Iranians are attempting to turn the tables on Israel – they are developing their own capability to launch a preemptive strike against Israeli strategic facilities. Iranian leaders have already threatened to undertake such action. For instance, in February 2012 Mohammad Hejazi, deputy head of the Iranian armed forces, told the Iranian FARS news agency: “Our strategy now is that if we feel our enemies want to endanger Iran’s national interests, and want to decide to do that, we will act without waiting for their actions.”

In September that year, Iran’s state-run Arabic-language Al-Alam television cited Amir Ali Hajizadeh, a brigadier-general in the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, as saying, “Iran will not start any war, but it could launch a preemptive attack if it was sure that the enemies are putting the final touches to attack it.”

Third, by boosting Hezbollah’s stock of highly accurate missiles Tehran is seeking to enable its proxy to launch heavier salvos, perhaps in conjunction with the Syrian-provided Scud-D missiles reportedly already in Hezbollah’s arsenal. The aim is to assure hits on key strategic targets despite Israel’s missile defenses. Clearly, irrespective of its pooh-poohing of its capabilities, Tehran is worried by the recent stellar performance of the Iron Dome system.

The bottom line is that Iran is laboring hard to prevent an Israeli preemption while developing its own option – via Hezbollah – of launching a preemptive attack on Israel’s most vital strategic assets.

It should be noted that the Iranian effort is being pursued despite repeated Israeli warnings and forceful action to stop it. Some in Israel have interpreted this Iranian determination as forced by growing fears of the mullahs and their Hezbollah brethren that the weapons would fall into the hands of Sunni rebels in Syria, and also that they will not be able to make use of the Tehran-Damascus-Beirut corridor much longer to transport arms and fighters. However, a more important reason is Iran’s fear of an imminent Israeli preemptive attack. In spite of Iran’s public ridicule, it appears it views with mounting concern Israeli statements that 2013 would be a year of decision.

For its part, Israel, by acting to destroy new additions to Hezbollah’s counter-force capabilities and the means to defend them (for e.g., the January 30 air raid to destroy advanced surface-to-air missiles en route to Lebanon), signaled its determination to keep its preemptive option open. Further, the operational successes of the IDF’s recent military undertakings in Syria communicate to Tehran the credibility of Israel’s intentions and capabilities in this regard. Thus, as long it races toward the bomb, Iran is likely to persist if not escalate its efforts to block and/or counter the Israeli preemptive option.

The ongoing conflict over preemption has produced two paradoxes. First, even before any military strike had been unleashed against a nuclear facility, armed conflict has erupted. The Israeli threat to use force as a last resort to stop Iran’s nuclear march had the effect of forcing Jerusalem to exert its military muscle without delay, ostensibly to preserve the final option.

Second, the more Hezbollah is transformed into a counterforce arm of the Islamic Republic, the less can it be “wasted” on any marginal conflict. As its room of maneuver has shrunk, Hezbollah has become in effect a weapon of last resort. (Conversely, the more extensive the destruction by Israel of Hezbollah’s counterforce capabilities, the lesser the organization’s strategic value to Iran and thus the greater its freedom of action.)

Similarly, recent upgrades to the US bunker-buster bomb – the 14-ton Massive Ordnance Penetrator (MOP) – which enhanced its effectiveness against deeply buried targets, were reportedly used by the Obama administration to convince Israel to delay any military action vis-a-vis Iran. Washington had argued that the new weapon effectively nullifies any talk of Iran entering a “zone of immunity” – where its nuclear program is so hardened as to virtually be invulnerable – which Israeli leaders cited as an incentive to preemption. Incredibly, both Washington and Tehran have sought to use the introduction of counter-force weapons into the arena to block or at least slow down Israel’s countdown to preemption.

The writer is the author of The Continuing Storm: Iraq, Poisonous Weapons and Deterrence (Yale University Press).

Israel Hints at New Strikes, Warning Syria Not to Retaliate – NY Times

May 15, 2013

Israel Hints at New Strikes, Warning Syria Not to Retaliate | World | Ammon News.

( This feels like Netanyhu’s chess move after meeting with Putin.  I wonder whether he cleared it with Putin first.  The Russian business is strange.  I think there’s a lot going on that we don’t know. – JW )

[5/15/2013 7:43:41 PM]

WASHINGTON – A senior Israeli official signaled on Wednesday that Israel was considering further military strikes on Syria to stop the transfer of advanced weapons to Islamic militants, and he warned the Syrian president, Bashar al-Assad, that his government would face crippling consequences if it retaliated against Israel.

The Israeli official said: “Israel is determined to continue to prevent the transfer of advanced weapons to Hezbollah. The transfer of such weapons to Hezbollah will destabilize and endanger the entire region.”

“If Syrian President Assad reacts by attacking Israel, or tries to strike Israel through his terrorist proxies,” the official said, “he will risk forfeiting his regime, for Israel will retaliate.”

The Israeli official, who has been briefed by high-level officials on the Syria situation in the past two days, declined to be identified, citing the need to protect internal Israeli deliberations. He contacted The New York Times on Wednesday.

The precise motives for Israel’s warning were uncertain: it could be trying to restrain Syria’s behavior without undertaking further military action, or alerting the international community to another strike. That would ratchet up the tension in an already fraught situation in Syria, where a civil war has been raging for more than two years.

Two weeks ago, Israeli warplanes carried out two strikes, the first hitting bases of the elite Republican Guard and storehouses of long-range missiles, in addition to a military research center that American officials have called the country’s main chemical weapons facility.

A more limited strike on May 3 at Damascus International Airport was also meant to destroy weapons being sent from Iran to the Islamic militant group Hezbollah. The Israeli government did not confirm either of the attacks, which followed one earlier this year.

The Syrian government publicly condemned Israel for the assaults, saying it “opened the door to all possibilities.” The Syrian deputy foreign minister, Faisal Mekdad, declared in an interview with Agence France-Presse, “We will respond immediately and harshly to any additional attack by Israel.” He described the Israeli strikes as a “declaration of war.”

Mr. Assad and Hassan Nasrallah, the leader of Hezbollah, have both said in recent days that the Israeli-Syrian border, which has been relatively quiet despite the more than two years of civil war inside Syria, could become a “resistance front,” in response to Israeli aggression.

On Wednesday, the Israeli newspaper Haaretz reported that several mortars, fired from across the Syrian border, had landed in the Israeli-occupied Golan Heights. The newspaper attributed the information to a spokesperson for the Israeli Defense Forces.

In his comments, the Israeli official noted that “Israel has so far refrained from intervening in Syria’s civil war and will maintain this policy as long as Assad refrains from attacking Israel directly or indirectly.”

“Israel,” he said, “will continue its policy of interdicting attempts to strengthen Hezbollah, but will not intercede in the Syrian civil war as long as Assad desists from direct or indirect attacks against Israel.”

American and Israeli political analysts agree that Israel has little motive to intervene in Syria’s civil war, but is deeply concerned about the transfer of advanced weapons, as well as the danger that Mr. Assad’s stockpiles of chemical weapons could be used against Israel. (The New York Times)

US explores new ways to press Iran on nuke program

May 15, 2013

US explores new ways to press Iran on nuke program | The Times of Israel.

State Department’s nuclear negotiator with Tehran presents Congress with new range of options to deter Islamic Republic

May 15, 2013, 7:23 pm Wendy Sherman, the State Department's nuclear negotiator with Iran (photo credit: CC-BY dbking, Flickr)

Wendy Sherman, the State Department’s nuclear negotiator with Iran (photo credit: CC-BY dbking, Flickr)

WASHINGTON (AP) — The Obama administration on Wednesday said it was looking at new ways to pressure Iran over its nuclear program.

The State Department’s nuclear negotiator with Iran, Wendy Sherman, and the Treasury Department’s sanctions chief, David Cohen, told Congress that the US is exploring different ways to press Tehran into making nuclear concessions.

These range from possible executive orders to military signals to US efforts to end the civil war in Syria, a key Iranian ally.

Their comments came as the Treasury Department on Wednesday added two Dubai-based companies to an American blacklist of firms accused of supporting Iran’s weapons proliferation activities.

The action bans Americans from doing business with Al Fida International General Trading or Al Hilal Exchange. Any assets held by those companies in the US are now blocked.

Copyright 2013 The Associated Press

Has Iran Crossed Netanyahu’s ‘Red Line’?

May 15, 2013

Has Iran Crossed Netanyahu’s ‘Red Line’? | FrontPage Magazine.

 

Benjamin Netanyahu

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

In one the most important and overlooked articles written about the Iranian nuclear threat, the Jerusalem Post’s Gil Hoffman recently qualified statements made by former Military Intelligence chief Maj.-Gen. (res.) Amos Yadlin that Tehran had crossed the “red line” delineated by Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu in his speech to the UN General Assembly in September.

Speaking on the sidelines of the Jerusalem Post conference in New York, Yadlin explained to reporters that the perception that Iran had diverted to civilian purposes a significant portion of its uranium enriched to 20% was partially flawed. Yadlin clarified that while Iran had indeed converted some of this stockpile into nuclear fuel rods—generally used in nuclear reactors to produce nuclear energy—the majority was in fact made into oxidized uranium, or yellowcake, which can be readily transformed into fissile material.

“Within a week, [yellowcake] could be turned into nuclear material for a bomb,” Yadlin is on record as saying.

To fully comprehend the significance of Yadlin’s assertion, some context, while dense, is necessary.

In August 2012, the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) reported that Iran had, since Tehran began refining uranium to this concentration in 2010, produced nearly 190 kilograms of uranium enriched to 20%. At the time, there was widespread speculation of an imminent Israeli attack on Iran; talk of which infuriated Netanyahu to such an extent that he accused the media of perpetrating a “worldwide scandal” in order to “prevent Israel from independent action.”

Weeks later, Netanyahu appeared before the UNGA to delineate his “red line” on Iran’s nuclear progress, his now-infamous caricature of a bomb in hand.

One month later, then-defense minister Ehud Barak gave an interview to the British Telegraph, in which he confirmed that Iran had delayed the “moment of truth” by converting approximately forty percent, or 70 kg, of its 190 kg stockpile of higher-grade uranium to other forms; thereby leaving Tehran with 120 kg of the substance, well below the 250 kg threshold required to build a nuclear bomb.

By February, however, the IAEA disclosed that Iran’s total production of 20% enriched uranium had reached 280 kilograms, an addition of 90 kg in the preceding six months. Its stockpile stood, at that point, at 170 kg (up from 120 kg in August); meaning that another 40 kg had been diverted towards other purposes.

Overall, then, the IAEA extrapolated that Iran had converted to other forms some 110 kg (70 kg + 40 kg) of the 280 kg of higher-grade uranium it had produced since 2010.

Yadlin’s “blockbuster” was to reveal that, contrary to popular belief, only 30 kg of this had been transformed into fuel rods, whereas 80 kg was turned into yellowcake, which, as Yadlin cautioned, can be converted expeditiously into bomb-grade material. He therefore concluded that Iran had crossed Netanyahu’s red line, as the 80 kg of yellowcake in question, when added to Iran’s stockpile (as of February) of 170 kg of 20% enriched uranium, exceeds Netanyahu’s 250 kg threshold; or, in Gil Hoffman’s words, what we have is “a crossed red line, an undermined prime minister and a serious problem.”

Ironically, despite the enormous publicity generated by Yadlin’s comments, the fact of the matter is that this information was already outlined by the IAEA in its February report: “28.3 kg of UF6 enriched up to 20% U-235 were fed into the conversion process at FPFP [Fuel Plate Fabrication Plant],” while the rest was transformed into U3O8, a form of yellowcake.

Given these facts, the question arises: Has Iran crossed Netanyahu’s “red line”?

In his speech to the UNGA, Netanyahu specifically stated that “a red line must be drawn, first and foremost, in one vital part of [Iran’s] program—on Iran’s efforts to enrich uranium.” Netanyahu reasoned that “the only way that you can credibly prevent Iran from developing a nuclear weapon is to prevent Iran from amassing enough enriched uranium for a bomb,” since Tehran could covertly produce other components of a nuclear weapon, such as a nuclear detonator, for example, with relative ease and without the knowledge of the international community.

Netanyahu thus asserted that “a red line should be drawn before Iran completes the second stage of nuclear enrichment [to 20%] necessary to make a bomb.” Specifically, “before Iran gets to a point where it’s a few months away or a few weeks away from amassing enough [higher-grade] enriched uranium to make a nuclear weapon.”

While debatable, it seems, then, that Iran has indeed technically crossed Netanyahu’s limit, as the country has to date manufactured more uranium enriched to 20% (280 kg+) than is required to build a nuclear weapon (even though its current stockpile allegedly remains below the 250 kg threshold required to build a nuke). Most importantly, as Yadlin noted, Iran has shortened the time required for it to reach “breakout” capacity to mere days, a significantly shorter timeframe than the “few months” or “few weeks” outlined by Netanyahu in September.

Iran is thus on the brink of achieving nuclear weapons capability, having reached the stage whereby it can decide at any moment to make a week-long dash towards a point of no return; an interval which is, “red lines” aside, too close for comfort.

In his interview last October, Barak claimed that Iran had rolled back its nuclear progress by “eight to ten months,” and stressed that Tehran would likely reach the “zone of immunity,” depriving Israel of its military option, by the “spring or early summer.” This prediction coincides with Yadlin’s recent assertion that the Islamic Republic could reach nuclear breakout capacity as early as June.

Likewise, Netanyahu stated in his speech to the UNGA that Iran will have produced enough higher-grade enriched uranium for its first bomb “by next spring, at most by next summer.” This reality, Netanyahu said, precipitated his delineation of limits on Iran’s nuclear program, as “red lines don’t lead to war, red lines prevent war.”

The evidence suggests that we’ll soon find out if he’s right.

The author recently made aliya from Canada.

Rocket hits Eshkol Council; no injuries

May 15, 2013

Rocket hits Eshkol Council; no injuries – Israel News, Ynetnews.

Gaza rocket explodes in open area on holiday of Shavuot. ‘This hasn’t stopped us from celebrating,’ council head says

Ilana Curiel

Published: 05.15.13, 16:53 / Israel News

A rocket exploded Wednesday – the holiday of Shavuot – in an open area at the Eshkol Regional Council. No injuries or damage were reported. A Color Red siren sounded prior to the hit.

Eshkol Regional Council head Chaim Yalin said the rocket did not stop the residents from enjoying the holiday. “Not the weather or the rockets will ruin our holiday,” he said. “The farmers worked all year ling to celebrate their holiday.”

Earlier this month, another rocket hit the council. In later April, on the holiday of Lag B’Omer a rocket fired from Gaza exploded in an open area at the Sdot Negev Regional Council. No injuries or damage were reported.

A few hours later, the IDF Spokesperson’s Unit announced that Israeli aircraft attacked a terror facility and a weapons cache in south Gaza. Direct hits were confirmed.

Meanwhile, Wednesday also saw at least two mortar shells fired into Israeli territory in the Mount Hermon region in the Golan Heights.

According to assessments they were stray mortars mistakenly fired at Israel as part of the Syrian conflict between rebels and Bashar Assad‘s army. No injuries or damage were reported. The IDF decided to close the Hermon site’s upper part to visitors. Israel has also lodged a complaint with the UN’s peacekeeping force in the Golan.

Is it a peace or war plan for Syria?

May 15, 2013

Is it a peace or war plan for Syria? – Alarabiya.net English | Front Page.

 

It is as if 100,000 people killed is not enough to justify international intervention in Syria’s brutal war. It is as if the dozens of attempts made to find a solution with President Bashar al-Assad, and his continuing resistance to ceding power, means nothing.

U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry’s stance supporting the Russian plan took many by surprise in the Arab world. The public opinion senses a dangerous change in the American government’s stance which adopted Russia’s and Iran’s positions. America’s move strengthened suspicions that it has completely retreated from its old stance of politically supporting the Syrian people.

Arab anger

Despite the angry feelings of most Arabs, this is also a huge mistake for at least one reason; the peace conference will fail to convince Bashar al-Assad of stepping down. Even if he appears convinced, he would only be maneuvering and lying by convincing others that he should stay until the end of his term next year, after which he will break his promises.

What is the value of a conference when it is impossible to convince Assad of immediately stepping down and when it is impossible to stop the revolution against him?

 

Abdulrahman al-Rashed

For Assad and his Iranian allies, the conference is yet another scam, similar to that which he pulled with the international observers, Kofi Annan and Lakhdar Brahimi. This is his policy, misleading others as he awaits for some sort of change that turns the situation to his favor.

At the same time as the conference is being imposed on the Syrian opposition – which does not dare reject the conference for well-known reasons such as its need for international support – the regime will, during these months, expand its military operations to gain back liberated lands.

Accepting the Russian plan is a huge mistake because it grants hope to a besieged regime which supposedly must be further pressured and not given room to breathe! The regime will only make concessions amidst overpowering circumstances and it is only then that true peace can be established in Syria.

The value of the conference

What is the value of a conference when it is impossible to convince Assad of immediately stepping down and when it is impossible to stop the revolution against him? Both aspects are certain truths. Imposing the conference on the fighters will only increase anger and weaken moderate powers that will lose popular support. Thus, the winds will change and the public mood will shift in favor of extremist fighters.

Has anyone asked the question of what will happen when Russia imposes the idea of the partial departure of the regime by having Assad exit at the end of his term next year? How will it be possible to convince millions of Syrians to return to their homes and lives in a country run by suppressive security apparatuses? And who will believe that Assad will in fact step down next year? And who said that even if he does step down – which is almost impossible – his leaders, who committed the gravest of massacres in the region’s history, will leave with him?

The Russians appeal to everyone’s sentiment by speaking of maintaining the unity of Syria and maintaining the regime’s structure in order to prevent chaos and civil war. This is noble concept which we do not expect a man, one who uses warplanes, tanks, missiles and cannons to shell cities and towns on almost daily basis, to commit to. A few days ago, he set off booby-trapped car in a public market in Turkey. His forces still attack refugees and border towns with Jordan and still trespass Lebanon’s borders to kidnap and kill refugees. Are these the practices of a president willing to step down? What is the American interest in backing the Russians’ poisoned idea which will only further complicate the situation?

The Americans have either of two choices. Either support the Syrian majority that hates the regime and refuses to live under the shadow of Assad and his regime’s governance, or completely back off and let the Syrians handle their situation. To these Syrians, imposing the conference is a means to support Assad and not force him out.

 

____________________

Abdulrahman al-Rashed is the General Manager of Al Arabiya News Channel. A veteran and internationally acclaimed journalist, he is a former editor-in-chief of the London-based leading Arab daily Asharq al-Awsat, where he still regularly writes a political column. He has also served as the editor of Asharq al-Awsat’s sister publication, al-Majalla. Throughout his career, Rashed has interviewed several world leaders, with his articles garnering worldwide recognition, and he has successfully led Al Arabiya to the highly regarded, thriving and influential position it is in today.

Fierce fighting erupts at Syria’s Aleppo prison, says NGO

May 15, 2013

Fierce fighting erupts at Syria’s Aleppo prison, says NGO – Alarabiya.net English | Front Page.

Wednesday, 15 May 2013
Activists say Syrian rebels have detonated two car bombs outside the main prison in the northern city of Aleppo. (File photo: Retuers)
Al Arabiya with Agencies –

Activists say Syrian rebels have detonated two car bombs outside the main prison in the northern city of Aleppo and are trying to storm the facility, where hundreds of regime opponents are believed to be held.

Around 4,000 prisoners including Islamists and common law criminals are held in the prison on the outskirts of the northern city, which is largely under rebel control, Rami Abdul-Rahman of the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights said.

He says around 250 of the prisoners are jailed for reasons related to the 26-month-old uprising against Assad’s regime.

The car bombs exploded simultaneously outside the walls of the central prison Wednesday morning, adds Abdul-Rahman.

He goes on to say the blasts are part of a coordinated rebel assault on the prison, and fierce clashes are raging between President Bashar Assad’s troops and opposition fighters around the detention center.

There were no immediate reports of casualties.

Elsewhere, violent clashes were reported in Idlib province of northwest Syria and in Daraa in the south.

Grisly Killings in Syrian Towns Dim Hopes for Peace Talks – NYTimes.com

May 15, 2013

Grisly Killings in Syrian Towns Dim Hopes for Peace Talks – NYTimes.com.

 

BEIRUT, Lebanon — After dragging 46 bodies from the streets near his hometown on the Syrian coast, Omar lost count. For four days, he said, he could not eat, remembering the burned body of a baby just a few months old; a fetus ripped from a woman’s belly; a friend lying dead, his dog still standing guard.

Syrians have been shocked by video from coastal towns.

Omar survived what residents, antigovernment activists and human rights monitors are calling one of the darkest recent episodes in the Syrian war, a massacre in government-held Tartus Province that has inflamed sectarian divisions, revealed new depths of depravity and made the prospect of stitching the country back together appear increasingly difficult.

That mass killing this month was one in a series of recent sectarian-tinged attacks that Syrians on both sides have seized on to demonize each other. Government and rebel fighters have filmed themselves committing atrocities for the world to see.

Footage routinely shows pro-government fighters beating, killing and mutilating Sunni rebel detainees, forcing them to refer to President Bashar al-Assad as God. One rebel commander recently filmed himself cutting out an organ of a dead pro-government fighter, biting it and promising the same fate to Alawites, members of Mr. Assad’s Shiite Muslim sect.

That lurid violence has fueled pessimism about international efforts to end the fighting. As the United States and Russia work to organize peace talks next month between Mr. Assad and his opponents, the ever more extreme carnage makes reconciliation seem more remote.

Nadim Houry, the director of Human Rights Watch in Beirut, said he sensed “a complete disconnect between diplomacy and events on the ground.”

“The conflict is getting more visceral,” he said. Without concrete confidence-building measures, he said, and with more people “seeing it as an existential struggle, it’s hard to imagine what the negotiations would look like.”

The recent executions, reconstructed by speaking with residents and human rights monitors, unfolded over three days in two Sunni enclaves in the largely Alawite and Christian province, first in the village of Bayda and then in the Ras al-Nabeh district of the nearby city of Baniyas.

Government troops and supporting militias went house to house, killing entire families and smashing men’s heads with concrete blocks.

Antigovernment activists provided lists of 322 victims they said had been identified. Videos showed at least a dozen dead children. Hundreds more people are reported missing.

“How can we reach a point of national forgiveness?” said Ahmad Abu al-Khair, a well-known blogger from Bayda. He said that the attacks had begun there, and that 800 of about 6,000 residents were missing.

Multiple video images that residents said they had recorded in Bayda and Ras al-Nabeh — of small children lying where they died, some embracing one another or their parents — were so searing that even some government supporters rejected Syrian television’s official version of events, that the army had “crushed a number of terrorists.”

One prominent pro-government writer, Bassam al-Qadi, took the unusual, risky step of publicly blaming loyalist gunmen for the killings and accusing the government of “turning a blind eye to criminals and murderers in the name of ‘defending the homeland.’ “

Images of the killings in and around Baniyas have transfixed Syrians. In one video that residents say shows victims in Ras al-Nabeh, the bodies of at least seven children and several adults lie tangled and bloody on a rain-soaked street. A baby girl, naked from the waist down, stares skyward, tiny hands balled into fists. Her round face is unblemished, but her belly is darkened and her legs and feet are charred into black cinders.

Opposition leaders called the Baniyas killings sectarian “cleansing” aimed at pushing Sunnis out of territory that may form part of an Alawite rump state if Syria ultimately fractures. Mr. Houry said the killings inevitably raised such fears, though there was no evidence of such a broad policy. Tens of thousands of displaced Sunnis are staying in the province, largely safe.

Not all reactions followed sectarian lines. Survivors said Christian neighbors had helped survivors escape, and on Tuesday, Alawite and Christian residents of the province said they were starting an aid campaign for victims to “defy the sectarian wind.”

Mr. Qadi, the pro-government writer, labeled the killers “criminals who do not represent the Alawites” and called on the government to immediately “acknowledge what happened” and arrest “those hyenas.”

He added: “This has happened in a lot of places. Baniyas is only the most recent one.”

When the uprising began in March 2011 as a peaceful movement, Sunnis in Bayda raised banners denouncing Sunni extremists, seeking to reassure Alawites that they opposed Mr. Assad, not his sect, said Mr. Abu al-Khair, the blogger.

In May 2011, security forces stormed the village, killing demonstrators, including women.

After that, Bayda remained largely quiet. Most activists and would-be fighters left. But residents said they often helped defecting soldiers escape, a pattern they believe set off the violence.

Activists said that on May 2, around 4 a.m., security forces came to detain defectors, and were ambushed in a fight that killed several government fighters — the first known armed clash in Baniyas. The government called in reinforcements and, by 7 a.m., began shelling the village.

A pro-government television channel showed a reporter on a hill above Bayda. Smoke rose from green slopes and houses below, where, the reporter said, “terrorists” were hiding. A group of men the reporter described as government fighters walked unhurriedly through a square.

“God willing, Bayda will be finished today,” a uniformed man said on camera.

What happened next was described in Skype interviews with four survivors who for their safety gave only nicknames, an activist in Baniyas, and Mr. Abu al-Khair, who said he had spoken from Damascus with more than 30 witnesses.

Men in partial or full military dress went door to door, separating men — and boys 10 and older — from women and younger children.

Residents said some gunmen were from the National Defense Forces, the new framework for pro-government militias, mainly Alawites in the Baniyas area. They bludgeoned and shot men, shot or stabbed families to death and burned houses and bodies.

The activist in Baniyas, Abu Obada, said security forces had told people to gather in the square, and some Bayda villagers, fearing a massacre, attacked them with weapons abandoned by defectors. Other residents disputed that or were unsure because they had been hiding.

A cousin of Mr. Abu al-Khair’s, who gave her name as Warda al-Hurra, or the Free Rose, said her female relatives had described being herded to a bedroom with children, and heard male relatives crying out in pain nearby. At one point, her cousin Ahmed, 10, and brother Othman, 16, were brought in, injured and “limp as a towel,” she said.

Her aunt begged a guard to let them stay, but he said, “They’ll kill me if I make one single mistake.”

Soon another gunman shouted at him and took the boys away. They are still missing.

The gunmen brought more women, until there were 100 in the room. He ordered the guard to kill them. The guard said: “Don’t be rash! Take a breath.”

The man relented. The women heard gunmen celebrating in the square; later they were released. When they ventured out, there were “bodies on every corner,” Ms. Hurra said.

Another resident, Abu Abdullah, said he had fled his house and returned after dark to find stabbed, charred bodies of women and children dumped in the square, and 30 of his relatives dead.

Omar, of nearby Ras al-Nabeh, the man who had dragged dozens of bodies from the streets, said he had helped Bayda residents pick up bodies, placing 46 in two houses and the rest in a mosque, then had run away, fearing the return of the killers. He said he had recognized some bodies, including the village sheik, Omar al-Bayassi, whom some considered pro-government.

One video said to be from Bayda showed eight dead children on a bed. Two toddlers cuddled face to face; a baby rested on a dead woman’s shoulder.

On May 4, shelling and gunfire began to hit Ras al-Nabeh. Abu Yehya, a resident, hid in his house with his wife and two children, who stayed quiet: “Their instincts took over.” Two days later, he said, he emerged to find his neighbors, a family of 13, shot dead against a wall.

On May 6, security forces allowed in Red Crescent workers. Bodies were tossed and bulldozed into trucks and dumped in a mass grave, Mr. Abu al-Khair said.

Residents posted smiling pictures of children they said had been killed: Moaz al-Biassi, 1 year old, and his sister Afnan, 3. Three sisters, Halima, Sara, and Aisha. Curly-haired Noor, and Fatima, too little to have much hair but already sporting earrings.

Mr. Obada said residents on Tuesday were indignant when a government delegation offered compensation for damaged houses, saying, “What do you get if you rebuild the house and the whole family is dead?”

Displaced Sunnis who had sheltered there are fleeing, and some say Alawites are no longer welcome.

“It’s now impossible for them to stay in Syria,” Omar said.

 

Hwaida Saad contributed reporting from Beirut, and Sebnem Arsu from Antakya, Turkey.