WarSclerotic

VIENNA – The UN nuclear watchdog acknowledged on Wednesday it might not find anything if allowed access to an Iranian military facility, in an apparent reference to suspected clean-up work there, diplomats said.

Herman Nackaerts, deputy director general of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), made the comment during a closed-door briefing where he showed satellite imagery indicating Iran had now partly paved the site, they said.

The picture was the latest sign of what Western officials suspect is an Iranian attempt since early last year to remove or hide any evidence of illicit nuclear-related activity at Parchin, located southeast of the capital Tehran.

In response to a question, “he (Nackaerts) said there is a chance they won’t find anything”, in view of the suspected sanitization efforts, said one diplomat who was at the meeting.

Nackaerts made no public comment.

The UN agency believes Iran may have carried out explosives tests relevant for nuclear weapons development at Parchin, possibly a decade ago, and has been pressing Tehran for more than a year to be allowed visit the sprawling facility.

Iran, which denies Western allegations that it seeking the capability to make nuclear weapons, says Parchin is a conventional military complex and rejects accusations that it is trying to remove any evidence.

The IAEA said in a report to member states last week that Iran had asphalted a “significant proportion” of the specific part of Parchin it wants to inspect.

It did not say why Iran may have decided to do this, but one Western official who attended Wednesday’s briefing said it could be a bid to cover up any remaining traces there.

Iran’s ambassador to the IAEA, Ali Asghar Soltanieh, declined to speak to reporters when he left the meeting room.

The UN agency wants to check Parchin as part of its long-stalled investigation into suspected atomic bomb research by Iran, which says its nuclear program is entirely peaceful.

Iran says it first needs to agree with the IAEA on how the broader inquiry is to be conducted before granting access.

Citing satellite imagery, Western diplomats earlier this year said that Iran appeared to be rebuilding the site, after previously razing smaller buildings and removing soil.

Experts say that while it may now be difficult to find any evidence, it could still be possible to locate any traces of nuclear materials with the IAEA’s sophisticated equipment.

“The more they (Iran) do, the less likelihood there is of picking up something easily,” one Western envoy said.

“(But) I think the chances of wiping out every trace of whatever might have been going on there is very slim.”

Hassan Nasrallah’s stirring and impassioned defense of Damascus despot Bashar Assad went far beyond the Hezbollah chief’s by-now expected bravado. This was something intrinsically different. Nasrallah is a proven master at toying with the emotions of both supporters and foes in Lebanon. This time, though, and perhaps for the first time, he displayed genuine emotion.

It may have been Nasrallah’s usual braggadocio when he vowed to stay in the Syrian conflict “to the end of the road” and to bring victory to his beleaguered ally Damascus despot Bashar Assad. But the significant portions of his harangue were those in which he listed the consequences to Lebanon if Assad should fall.

Nasrallah predicted a catastrophic outcome, from his point of view, in such an eventuality. He said Lebanon would be the next to cave under. The subtext is that Hezbollah would collapse in the Lebanese content. His Shi’ite organization would, in other words, lose its stranglehold over Lebanon.

It was always apparent that Assad was Hezbollah’s patron and benefactor. But now Nasrallah had admitted in no uncertain terms that Assad is not merely an ally but an indispensable mainstay. Hence Nasrallah must do absolutely everything to keep Assad in power, because Nasrallah’s own power hinges on that.

The fates of Assad and Hezbollah are one and the same. If Assad loses his struggle to maintain its sway over Syria, Hezbollah would lose its ability to maintain its sway over Lebanon. Hezbollah is not merely repaying a trusted confederate; Hezbollah is waging the ultimate fight for its power base in Lebanon.

If ever definitive corroboration existed for the crucial deformative role played by Syria in Lebanese domestic affairs, this is it. It is Nasrallah’s proclaimed strategic doctrine. The inseparable tie between Assad and Nasrallah – the two regional malefactors – is now not merely a matter of deduction, cogent as it may be. Their life and- death symbiosis is out in the open, explicitly acknowledged, and implemented in Syria’s killing fields.

Nasrallah keeps pouring more and more manpower into Syria and anti-Assad forces have now aimed their rockets at Hezbollah’s stronghold in Beirut. Just as Syria is considered a legitimate battleground for Hezbollah, so its Syrian enemies are likely to consider Lebanon a legitimate target for retaliation.

Nasrallah has compelling reasons to fear that Assad’s defeat would send his enemies into Lebanon to root out the last vestiges of Assad’s prime accomplice, i.e. Hezbollah. This is not a conflict of choice for Hezbollah but a desperate fight to the finish.

Hezbollah’s investment in Assad’s preservation has now superseded all its other agendas – including its enmity for Israel. The attacks – attributed to Israel – on convoys transferring weapons of mass destruction from Syria to Lebanon appear to bother Nasrallah remarkably less than the fear for the future of the Assad regime.

Hezbollah is not, of course, the only player in Syria’s immediate vicinity that has a vested interest in safeguarding Assad. The biggest stake in Assad’s well-being is held by the godfather of the pro-Assad axis – Iran. To a great extent Hezbollah is fighting as Tehran’s surrogate.

It does what Iran cannot directly do – openly dispatch combatants to fight Assad’s fight. Iran doubtless has contingency plans in the event that Assad should lose. For the ayatollahs, his fall would be a very bad blow but not a fatal one.

For Hezbollah, Assad’s fall would spell its own. Hezbollah stands to lose everything and this is why it is fully embroiled in Syria’s civil war. Not only can Hezbollah act as Iran’s proxy but it has no option but to do its utmost to tilt the scales in Assad’s favor.

Nasrallah’s fiery oratory notwithstanding, his organization faces odds it never encountered in the past. It is not only pitted against Israel and domestic Lebanese opponents. The entire coterie of fanatic Sunni baddies from all around the Muslim world both castigates and actively opposes it. Hezbollah is more vulnerable and far weaker than at any previous juncture.

This is a heartening development for Israel and a welcome byproduct from its policy of intervention.

BUENOS AIRES – An Argentine prosecutor accused Iran on Wednesday of establishing terrorist networks in Latin America dating back to the 1980s and said he would send his findings to courts in the affected countries.

State prosecutor Alberto Nisman is investigating the 1994 bombing of a Jewish community center in Buenos Aires that killed 85 people. Argentine courts have long accused Iran of sponsoring the attack.

Iran, which remains locked in a stand-off with world powers over its disputed nuclear program, denies links to the blast. No one was immediately available to comment at the Iranian embassy in Buenos Aires on Wednesday.

In a 500-page-long document, Nisman cited what he said was evidence of Iran’s “intelligence and terrorist network” in Argentina, Brazil, Paraguay, Uruguay, Chile, Colombia, Guyana, Trinidad and Tobago and Suriname – among others.

In the case of the AMIA (Asociacion Mutual Israelita Argentina) center bombing in Buenos Aires, Argentina has secured Interpol arrest warrants for nine men – eight Iranians and one person presumed to be Lebanese. Iranian Defense Minister Ahmad Vahidi is among the officials sought by Argentina, which is home to Latin America’s largest Jewish community.

Another Iranian with an outstanding arrest warrant against him in the case is Mohsen Rezaie, a former head of the Revolutionary Guards who is running for president.

Nisman said new evidence underscored the responsibility of Mohsen Rabbani, the former Iranian cultural attache in Argentina, as mastermind of the AMIA bombing and “coordinator of the Iranian infiltration of South America, especially in Guyana.” Nisman said US court documents showed Islamist militant Abdul Kadir – who was sentenced to life in prison in 2010 for participating in a foiled plan to attack John F. Kennedy International Airport in New York – was Rabbani’s disciple.

Kadir “received instructions” from Rabbani “and carried out the Iranian infiltration in Guyana, whose structure was nearly identical … to that established by Rabbani in Argentina,” the prosecutor wrote.

Nisman urged Interpol to intensify its efforts to execute the arrest warrants.

In February, Argentina’s Congress approved an agreement with Iran to set up a “truth commission” to shed light on the AMIA bombing after years of legal deadlock. But many Argentine Jewish community leaders feared the pact could undermine the ongoing judicial investigation, led by Nisman.

Argentine President Cristina Fernandez has close ties with other Latin American leaders who are on good terms with Tehran, such as Venezuela’s Nicolas Maduro and Ecuador’s Rafael Correa.

Her government had no immediate comment on Nisman’s report, which reinforced concerns voiced by Jewish leaders in Buenos Aires about the Argentine-Iranian commission.

The forming of the commission was seen as a diplomatic win for Iran as it confronts a US-led effort to isolate Tehran because of its nuclear program, which Western nations fear is aimed at attaining nuclear weapons.

Also on Wednesday, Canada said it will freeze all remaining trade with Iran to protest the Tehran’s nuclear ambitions and its human rights record