WarSclerotic

French defense minister: Up Iran sanctions – Israel News, Ynetnews.

Tehran says statements by Jean-Yves Le Drian only go to show economic measures against Islamic Republic prove ineffective, even though figures tell another story

AFP

Iranian Defense Minister Ahmad Vahidi said Sunday that French calls for “decisive sanctions” against Iran to prevent it from acquiring nuclear weapons show that international pressure on Iran is not “effective.”

“The sanctions are not effective until now, and that’s why (French politicians) require new ones,” Vahidi was quoted by ISNA news agency as saying, referring specifically to statements by French Defense Minister Jean-Yves Le Drian.

Speaking in Washington on Friday, the French minister expressed hope that the US and European countries would take “decisive sanctions” against Iran and its controversial nuclear program.

Le Drian slammed the “strategy of procrastination and concealment” regarding Tehran, stressing that pressure on Iran must increase in the coming months.

Negotiations between the West and Iran have stalled since the last meeting in early April in Almaty, Kazakhstan. However, chief Iranian nuclear negotiator, Saeed Jalili, and the EU foreign policy chief Catherine Ashton announced Thursday their willingness to continue discussions.

For several years the UN and Western powers have developed an arsenal of sanctions aimed to try dissuading Tehran from developing nuclear weapons under what they believe is the pretext of a civilian nuclear program, Iran’s denials notwithstanding.

As a signatory to the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty, Iran requires for its part that its right to develop nuclear energy for civilian purposes be recognized.

Since the stiffened economic sanctions by the United States and the European Union entered into force in July 2012, the Iranian currency Rial has lost nearly 80% of its value and inflation soared to over 31%, according to official figures.

Syrian army, Hezbollah kill more than 30 in border fighting | JPost | Israel News.

David Kramer: No help on Syria will come from Russia – The Washington Post.

By David J. Kramer, Published: May 18

Russia knows exactly what the fuss is about | The Times of Israel.

By insistently arming Assad, and with increasingly sophisticated air defenses, a disingenuous Moscow risks heating the northern border to boiling point

Russia’s Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov with Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu in Jerusalem two years ago (Photo credit: Avi Ohayon/GPO/Flash90)

Sergey Lavrov says he can’t understand what all the fuss is about.

In interviews in the last few days, the Russian foreign minister has asserted Moscow’s obligation — never mind its right — to honor a contract to supply President Bashar Assad’s regime in Syria with advanced S-300 air defense batteries, state-of-the-art systems that can intercept fighter jets and cruise missiles.

The four-part reasoning Lavrov advances: (1) Russia’s arms sales credibility would be shattered were it to renege on the deal; (2) Russia has never made any secret of its various contracts with Assad; (3) these are defensive missile systems, not offensive weapons; and (4) the sales are not in breach of international law or Russia’s own ostensibly stringent arms sales regulations.

Lavrov, to put it politely, is being disingenuous. His narrow legalistic reasoning collapses in the face of a grisly reality in which his client, Bashar Assad, has spent the past two years clinging to power by massacring his own people (and the often extremely unsavory “rebel” forces who have joined the fight to oust the Assad regime). Russia’s weapons sales to Assad are enabling that ongoing bloodshed. And supplementing the regime’s arsenal with one of the world’s most sophisticated air defense systems will make the butcher of Damascus, who has remarkably managed to out-murder even his ruthless father, more impregnable.

The wise and experienced former head of IDF military intelligence, Amos Yadlin, remarked over the weekend that, for all Lavrov’s bullish insistence that the S-300 sale will go ahead, he is not convinced that Moscow will actually deliver the missile batteries. Rather, in Yadlin’s assessment, the S-300s are just one piece in the complex face-off over Syria now playing out between Moscow and Washington. By insistently maintaining their military support for Assad, said Yadlin, the Russians are saying to the Americans, “We lost Egypt; you took Iraq; and you took Libya. You’re not going to touch Syria.”

And the Americans, for their part, are publicly upbraiding the Russians for that stance. On Friday, the chairman of the US Joint Chiefs of Staff, General Martin Dempsey, slammed Moscow for strengthening Assad via the S-300 and other arms sales. “It’s at the very least an unfortunate decision that will embolden the regime and prolong the suffering, so it’s ill-timed and very unfortunate,” Dempsey told reporters at the Pentagon.

What we have playing out over Syria, therefore, is a mini-confrontation between the world’s only superpower, and its would-be reviving former superpower enemy. Israel’s misfortune is to be caught up in the middle.

Unnamed Israeli officials have issued conflicting statements in recent days — we want Assad to stay; the sooner he falls the better; and all manner of formulations in between. The fact is that Israel feels the same moral indignation as any other observer at the sight of this man being permitted to kill this many of his own people for this long. And Israel knows there is every possibility that whoever succeeds him could be more brutal, less pragmatic, and more dangerous to Israel.

Unsurprisingly, therefore, Israel has done its utmost to stay out of the Syrian civil war, and would like to continue to do so. The problem is that the route by which Iran supplies weaponry to Hezbollah, its proxy anti-Israel militia, happens to run via Syria. And with Assad’s complicity, Iran has turned Hezbollah into the world’s best-armed terrorist organization with missiles that can hit, and cause immense damage, to just about any target anywhere in Israel.

Twice this month, and on previous occasions too, Israel has intercepted still more advanced Iranian weaponry on its journey through Syria to south Lebanon. Those hits in Syria have been carried out with high accuracy and low collateral damage. No air defense system is impregnable, but the deployment of S-300s would make such airstrikes far more complex.

With Assad’s Syria protected beneath the S-300 umbrella, Iran would be emboldened in its weapons transfers to Hezbollah, a semi-sovereign terror group avowedly committed to Israel’s destruction. Israel would feel obliged to find other means to prevent the improvement of Hezbollah’s already formidable military capability. And tensions across the already unstable borders between Israel and Syria, and Israel and Lebanon, would be ratcheted up another few deeply worrying notches.

Russian President Vladimir Putin, right, listens to Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu during their meeting at the Bocharov Ruchei residence in the Black Sea resort of Sochi, Russia, Tuesday, May 14, 2013. (photo credit: AP/ Maxim Shipenkov)

That’s why Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu reportedly told Russia’s President Vladimir Putin, when they met for emergency talks about Syria last week, that the delivery of S-300 batteries to Assad “is likely to draw us into a response, and could send the region deteriorating into war.” Worryingly, Putin reportedly responded by warning Netanyahu that any further Israeli airstrikes in Syria could have the same result.

All of which, as Sergey Lavrov knows full well, is what the fuss is about.

Strategic value of shock and shush raids – Israel Opinion, Ynetnews.

Analysis: Israeli airstrikes expose inherent weakness of its enemies, emptiness of their threats

Riccardo Dugulin

During the last couple of weeks, the concept of “shock and shush” has been widely discussed. The Israeli strategy of conducting surgical strikes against top tier targets is not a new one, but it has gained an incredible amount of attention due to the alleged targeting of military objectives inside Syria.

Since 1967 and most importantly since the elimination of the Iraqi nuclear threat, the Israeli Air Force has played a central role in the defense of the Jewish State by enhancing its power projection capabilities.

It is clear to anyone that since 1948, Israel has been living in a tough neighborhood where bigger and numerically far superior states and organizations have been merging forces in order to attack and harm the Jewish state. With greater national cohesion, technically superior weaponry and well-crafted tactics Israel has been able to rebuke its enemies each time they attempted to endanger its existence. One of the essential traits of the strategy used in almost all major engagements has been the element of surprise and the flexibility of the Israeli ground and air forces with the common objective of seizing the initiative and depriving the enemy of its capacity to dictate the course and the tempo of its actions.

The current strategy of strikes against key military assets of the Syrian regime is once again successful in depriving the enemies of Israel of the ability to coordinate any offensive action that may harm the Jewish state.

By conducting raids when it deems necessary to, the Jewish State issues a clear warning based on two points. On the one hand, it is made clear that the military superiority of the Israeli Defense Forces is close to absolute. The ability to control the air and to gather necessary information sets Israel above any of its regional adversaries.

Control public discourse

On the other hand, Israel exposes the inherent weakness and emptiness of its enemies’ threats. Regardless of the arrogance any of the regional regime shows in its taunts against the Jewish state, their inability to defend themselves and to respond in a conventional, state-led fashion represents their military inferiority and the shallowness of their propaganda.

It also, and maybe this represents the true added value of such raids, creates a sentiment of constant vulnerability in the hearts of the Syrian military planners, a message which does not remain unread by the cadre of Hezbollah nor by the Iranian regime.

The secrecy of these operations, their effectiveness and the overall inability to retaliate against them creates a situation in which Israel’s enemies are left drowsy while their tactical and strategic plans are constantly altered and their assets diminished.

These attacks are also successful in frustrating leaders and organizations which for the last decades have been boasting their anti-Israeli initiatives. While Arab states along with Iran and regional terrorist organizations have stepped up their rhetoric against the Jewish State, their effective ability to surprise Israel in a strategic attack has diminished.

This does not mean that Israeli citizens are no longer under the threat of terrorism and random rocket fire. In fact, the opposite is true.

Since, conventional and semi-conventional techniques are bound to fail, the enemies of Israel are increasingly feeling like they are pushed in the ropes. At these moments, like in a boxing game, the inferior fighter is likely to use low blows or illegal techniques to delay as much as possible the fatidic moment where his situation will be irreversible. In fact, if a coordinated response to these “shock and shush” raids may not happen, Syria and Iran are likely to step up their support for paramilitary and non-state organization.

Surprise raids and single strikes should nevertheless be considered a double edged sword for Israel. As it had been the case in the early days of the Israeli intervention in Lebanon in 2006, the Israeli ability to target enemy infrastructure pushes the latter to increasingly dissimulate its materiel and adopt non-conventional tactics putting at risk the life of civilians. In this sense, Israel may fall victim to its own success. In fact, the ability to target high value objectives does not in itself eliminate the threat posed by terrorist organizations and enemy states. The deterrence created by those strikes should not be overplayed as they do not inflict irreversible damage to the enemy, leaving its will to harm Israel almost intact. In other words they are useful to contain, not defeat, an enemy.

Since Israel’s independence, the Israeli Defense Forces have exploited the element of surprise and the rapidity of small unit /commando style actions act as a force multiplier. As the Egyptians, Syrians and Jordanians learnt in 1967, Assad and Hezbollah are currently experiencing Israel’s ability to strike any target it deems a strategic one. This is the reason why the Hamas leadership remains bunkered under a civilian hospital or why Hezbollah maintains its weapons hidden in villages.

For this situation to be possible, Israel needs to keep and develop two key assets: Its ability to collect and assess vital intelligence regarding its neighbors’ activities and a command and control structure which enables swift, rational and democratic decision making.

In addition to that, the governmental institutions need to outline a clear strategy to control the public discourse. In the era of mass communication, this last point is essential, as if it is badly handled it can deprive Israel of a part of its strategic advantage.

Riccardo Dugulin holds a Master degree from the Paris School of International Affairs (Sciences Po) and is specialized in International Security. He is currently working in Paris for a medical and security assistance company. He has worked for a number of leading think tanks in Washington DC, Dubai and Beirut. Personal website: www.riccardodugulin.com

Russian military aid to Syria: Burning questions and answers – Diplomacy & Defense – Israel News | Haaretz Daily Newspaper.

What are the new missile systems Russia is supplying to the Assad regime and how will they affect the region? Anshel Pfeffer breaks it down.

By Anshel Pfeffer | May.19, 2013 | 1:16 PM | 1

A file photo of a Russian S-300 anti-aircraft missile system on display in an undisclosed location in Russia. Photo by AP

What are the new missile systems that Russia is reportedly supplying to Syria?

Two systems. One, the S-300, is an advanced version of the air-defense system originally designed in the Soviet Union in the 1970s and further developed in the 1990s. The S-300 has several advantages over the older Soviet-era anti-air batteries Syria already uses. First, the range of its radar and missiles allows it to hit targets at ranges of up to 200 kilometers. Second, the system uses different types of radar and command-and-control systems, which allow it to “engage” dozens of targets simultaneously. In addition, the system is fully mobile, carried on heavy road vehicles, making it harder to detect and destroy.

There were a number of reports in recent years regarding a possible delivery of S-300 batteries to both Syria and Iran, but the Russians responded to Israeli and American requests and froze the deal. Now they are speaking of “completing the deal” though they have yet to clarify when exactly they plan to ship the two batteries ordered to Syria.

The second system is the P-800 Yakhont, an anti-shipping cruise missile that entered Russian service about 13 years ago. The Yakhont is capable of flying at more than twice the speed of sound and delivering a 250 kg warhead against targets at sea at ranges of up to 300 kilometers.

In 2011, Russia already supplied Syria with two coastal-defense batteries, including 72 Yakhont missiles; now it is talking about supplying an advanced radar, which would greatly improve their accuracy.

What will the new missile systems change in the region?

The presence of these systems in Syria will make it more difficult (but not impossible) for Israel or any Western army to carry out air strikes on Syrian targets or to bombard or invade it by sea.

The S-300 will also threaten fighter jets using stand-off missiles (precision munitions that are launched at a distance of 40-50 kilometers from the target, enabling the fighter to evade most anti-aircraft systems) used by Israel, the United States and other air forces. The system also has a limited ability to hit ballistic missiles.

The Yakhont could limit the operations of Israeli and Western warships off the coast of Syria and make a sea-borne operation against it or Lebanon much more risky. The long range of the cruise missile could also threaten Israeli offshore rigs drilling in natural gas fields.

Can Israel’s military deal with these missiles?

Maj.-Gen. (res.) Amos Yadlin, the former commander of the army’s Military Intelligence said over the weekend that the Israel Air Force can deal with the S-300. There have been reports in the foreign press that Israeli pilots have trained against S-300 systems used by allies such as Cyprus, Greece and Azerbaijan, and developed evasion tactics. Israel carried out at least three major strikes against Syria in recent years and succeeded in breaching Syria’s significant anti-aircraft defenses. If the S-300 is indeed added to these systems, it would make a future mission more difficult but not thwart it. (The possible supply of the S-300 to Iran would be more problematic as the IAF cannot send a large number of fighter and electronic-warfare planes to distant Iran as it can to neighboring Syria.)

At sea, the Israel Navy has greatly upgraded its missile defense capabilities since the 2006 Second Lebanon War, when a Chinese anti-shipping missile fired from the Lebanese coast by Iranian Revolutionary Guards hit INS Hanit. Among other innovations, Israeli missile boats are now equipped with the Barak8 anti-missile system. Yakhont would add a new threat to the naval battlefield but not one that would prevent Israeli ships from operating near the Syrian shore.

What are the chances the missiles will actually be supplied to the Assad regime?

Syria already has the Yakhont, which is most likely stationed around the port of Tartus on the Mediterranean coast. Since this is the heart of the relatively calm Alawite region, it is likely that the system is already fully operational and there are probably Russian technicians and officers there to advise Syrian forces on their use. The Russian presence, however, may limit the use of the missiles by the Syrians.

As for the S-300, the situation is murkier. Senior Russian officials have said in recent days that they plan to complete the deal, which was signed in 2007 and suspended in 2010. It is unclear though where the batteries will come from since the company manufacturing the S-300 announced last year it is shutting down the assembly line. Russia could supply Syria with used batteries from its own armed forces.

The critical issue is the capability of the Syrian army, which has been seriously degraded by two years of civil war and tens of thousands of defections – and even before the war, it lacked the resources to put an advanced system that includes three different kinds of radar to operational use in a relevant time frame. It is hard to see the Syrians carry out that type of technological mission in their current state. One possible solution would be supplying the S-300 with a team of Russian operators and “advisers” (which would also give the batteries an insurance of sorts from bombing), but it is highly unlikely that Russia would endanger its officers in the Syrian warzone.

So why is there such a high level of concern over these missiles?

Well, it isn’t entirely clear why Israel has made such a fuss about them in recent days or whether Benjamin Netanyahu’s rushed visit to President Vladimir Putin was justified, or even had much chance of success. (According to some reports, it was Putin who summoned Netanyahu to warn him over further strikes against Syria).

It is highly likely that a lot of what we have been hearing over the last few days has been spin serving various agendas. Netanyahu, like many others in the Israeli government and defense establishment, is extremely worried that jihadist rebels will take over Syria and that they, or Assad’s allies Hezbollah, will obtain advanced and chemical weapons. Despite the massacre of Syrian citizens, some in Israel seem to prefer that the Assad regime hold on for as long as possible. The news of the missile supplies could strengthen Assad’s hand by underscoring the fact that he is still receiving significant Russian backing.

The reported presence of advanced missiles in Syria will also boost the case of those in Washington who continue to oppose military intervention. They have argued for a while that Syria possesses much stronger air and sea defenses than the Gadhafi regime did in Libya, and that, therefore, an attack could be extremely costly. The recent strikes attributed to Israel have eroded this argument, but the appearance of the S-300 in the region could bolster them again.

Of course, those with the most to gain from the recent reports (besides the Assad regime naturally) are the Russians, who want to demonstrate to the West (and Israel) that they have not given up on Assad and that as far as they are concerned, a Western strike against him also would be an attack on Russia’s interests.

But why are the Russians still backing Assad?

The reports on possible missile shipments are part of a wider move by Russia to show its support for Assad. This includes a large naval exercise in which 11 Russian warships have converged in recent days in the eastern Mediterranean, not far from Syria’s shore. It is the Russian Navy’s largest maneuver in the Mediterranean since the fall of the Soviet Union more than two decades ago.

The Russians have a clear interest in Assad’s survival. He is the last secular head of state in the Arab world who isn’t considered an ally of the U.S. administration or a supporter of radical Islamist movements that are also threatening Russia’s eastern provinces. Assad is the last recognizable agent of Russian influence in the Middle East, and despite his closeness to the Iranian-Shia axis over the past decade, his current dire situation puts him at Moscow’s mercy.

The Russian Navy has a long-term lease for use of Syria’s Tartus port and is the only Russian military presence currently in the Mediterranean basin. Even if the regime in Damascus falls, an Alawite rump state would probably remain for a while along the coast, with Tartus at its heart. Both Assad and the Russians have a joint strategic interest in defending that bit of coast.

PM: Israel will keep stopping weapons transfer to Hezbollah | JPost | Israel News.

Netanyahu: We’ll continue to halt Syrain arms transfers | The Times of Israel.

With northern border heating up, prime minister says Israel ‘has acted responsibly’ and remains undeterred by Assad’s bluster

Benjamin Netanyahu (center), arriving at a cabinet meeting in March. (photo credit: Miriam Alster/Flash90)

Amid escalating rhetoric between Jerusalem and Damascus in the wake of reported Israeli airstrikes in Syria, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu vowed Sunday to continue to act to prevent advanced weaponry from being transferred to Lebanese terror group Hezbollah via Syria.

“The Israeli government has acted responsibly and prudently to ensure the security of Israeli citizens and to prevent advanced weapons from reaching Hezbollah and [other] terrorist organizations… and we will do so in the future,” Netanyahu said during the weekly cabinet meeting in Jerusalem.

“The Middle East is in one of its most sensitive periods in decades, primarily Syria,” the prime minister added. “We are monitoring the changes there closely and are prepared for any scenario.”

On Sunday, the Times of London reported that Syria had trained long-range missiles on Tel Aviv, to be used if Israel violates Syrian territory. Israeli jets reportedly struck sites near Damascus twice earlier in May, aiming to stop the transfer of advanced Fateh-110 missiles to the Lebanese terror group Hezbollah.

Netanyahu’s remarks come after several days of increased tension between Israel and Syria. On Saturday, Syrian President Bashar Assad accused Israel of backing and providing support to rebel factions, contradicting top defense official Amos Gilad, who on Friday stated that Israel was not seeking to topple Assad.

Israel, which never officially took responsibility for the strikes, has said it will continue to act to stop weapons transfers, and even threatened to topple the regime in Damascus should Assad hit Israel. Syria, for its part, has warned that it would retaliate if attacked again.

Last week, Russia said it would go ahead with the sale of advanced S-300 anti-missile systems to Syria, despite Israeli protests, which included a personal visit by Netanyahu to Moscow to discuss the issue. The sale is seen by military analysts as making Israeli sorties into Syrian airspace much more difficult, and as complicating the possibility of an imposed no-fly zone over Syria by outside powers, as was done over Libya during the civil war there in 2011.

Moscow also sent a number of warships to the Mediterranean in what was seen as a warning to Israel not to hit Syria again. Russia has long maintained a major naval port in Syria.

Times of Israel staff contributed to this report.

Hezbollah fighters head to strategic Aleppo town as fighting rages – Alarabiya.net English | Front Page.

Battles raged in Qusayr between fighters from the Lebanese Shiite militant group Hezbollah and the rebel Free Syrian Army (FSA), as activists reported the killing of at least 10 Hezbollah members.

Sources told Al Arabiya early Sunday morning that Hezbollah fighters are reportedly heading to Qusayr, located in the central Homs province.

The town is a strategic boon to the rebels, AFP said. The opposition uses it as a base from which to block the main road from Damascus to the coast, impeding military movement and supply chains.

Bashar al-Assad’s forces, backed by Hezbollah fighters, continue to battle the rebels in order to gain full control over the city.

Qusayr is very close to the Lebanese-Syrian border.

According to Al Arabiya, a battalion of opposition fighters had earlier set a trap along the banks of the Assi river on the Syrian side of the Lebanese border. The battle saw the deaths of at least 10 Hezbollah fighters and wounded dozens more as they attempted to enter Syrian territory.

Activists told AFP on Saturday that Qusayr is surrounded by government forces on three sides, and approximately 25,000 residents are believed to still be in the city.

A military source told AFP last week that the Syrian army dropped leaflets over Qusayr warning civilians to leave before an attack is launched on the rebels who are allegedly holding the town and won’t surrender.

Report: Assad preparing missile strike against Tel Aviv in case Israel attacks Syria again – Israel News | Haaretz Daily Newspaper.

The Syrian army is deploying advanced surface-to-surface missiles aiming at Israel in the aftermath of the alleged Israeli strikes, The Sunday Times reports.

Syria is making preparations to strike Tel Aviv in case Israel launches another attack on its territory, The Sunday Times reported on Sunday.

The Syrian army has begun deploying advanced surface-to-surface missiles, the report said, adding that it has received orders to strike central Israel in case additional attacks against Syria are carried out.

The Sunday Times said that the information was obtained by reconnaissance satellites that were tracking the Syrian forces. According to the report, Syria was deploying advanced Tishreen missiles which are capable of carrying a holf-ton warhead.

Israel, foreign media reported, was behind three attacks against targets in Syria in the past five months. The air raids, it was said, targeted shipments of weapons heading to Lebanon’s Hezbollah.

Israel refused to officially confirm the recent attacks.

On Wednesday, The New York Times quoted a senior Israeli official warning of further attacks against Syria in case Bashar Assad decides to take action against Israel. The official also said Israel is determined to prevent any transfer of advanced weapons to Hezbollah.

Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah said that Syria would supply his organization with ‘game-changing weapons‘ in response to recent air raids near Damascus attributed to Israel.