WarSclerotic

Unmoved by Israel, Russia will send top air-defense system to Assad | The Times of Israel.

Moscow says it must honor its deal with Damascus, even though Netanyahu warned Putin that delivery of S-300 missiles could plunge the region into war

Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and Russian President Vladimir Putin at Netanyahu’s residence in Jerusalem on June 25, 2012. (Photo credit: Marc Israel Sellem/POOL/FLASH90)

Undeterred by pleas and warnings from Israel, Russia made clear on Thursday that it will go ahead with its planned delivery of a highly sophisticated air-defense system to Syria’s President Bashar Assad.

Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu reportedly warned Russian President Vladimir Putin in an emergency face-to-face meeting on Tuesday that Moscow’s sale of the S-300 missile defense system to Assad could push the Middle East into war.

But Russia’s Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov, evidently unmoved by the dramatic Israeli warning, declared on Thursday that while Moscow was “not signing any new deals,” it would honor existing contracts with Syria, including for the air-defense systems. “We’ve already carried out some of the deal,” Lavrov said, “and we will carry the rest of it out in full.”

A failure to honor signed contracts, Lavrov added in a television interview, would “harm the credibility” of Russia in other arms-sales contracts.

Lavrov’s statements indicated that Netanyahu’s mission to Russia — he flew to meet Putin, immediately after his return from China, for emergency talks in the Black Sea resort of Sochi — had failed. In their talks, Netanyahu reportedly told the Russian president that the S-300 had no relevance to Assad’s civil-war battles against rebel groups, and implored Moscow not to deliver the systems, Channel 2 reported.

He said that if acquired by Assad, the S-300 — a state-of-the-art system that can intercept fighter jets and cruise missiles — “is likely to draw us into a response, and could send the region deteriorating into war,” the Channel 2 report said.

On Thursday night, in response to Lavrov’s statements, Israeli officials were quoted by Channel 2 as saying that Jerusalem preferred not to describe Netanyahu’s mission as a failure, but acknowledged that Israel’s “situation would have been far better” if Putin had agreed to cancel the delivery. An Israeli source was quoted as saying that Netanyahu had told Putin the S-300s represent a weapons system that “shatters [Israel’s] qualitative edge,” presumably since it would greatly constrain the Israeli air force’s freedom of movement above Syria and neighboring Lebanon.

The Israeli source was also quoted as saying that Israel would “firmly oppose” the transfer of S-300s to Hezbollah in Lebanon.

Twice this month, Israel carried out air attacks in the Damascus area to blow up Fateh-110 ground-to-ground missile consignments en route to Hezbollah via Syria from Iran.

Lavrov said recently that the S-300s were to help Syria defend itself against air attacks. Israel suspects that Russia will deliver to Assad six S-300 missile batteries, as well as 144 missiles, the Wall Street Journal reported last week.

At their brief joint press conference Tuesday, it was clear that Netanyahu and Putin had not reached agreement on how to grapple with the Syrian crisis.

The Russian president said that the only way to resolve the crisis was via “the soonest end to armed conflict and the beginning of political settlement.”

He added: “At this sensitive moment, it’s particularly important to avoid any action that could destabilize the situation.”

Netanyahu, however, said that the volatile situation in the Middle East requires action to improve security. “The region around us is very unstable and explosive, and therefore I am glad for the opportunity to examine together new ways to stabilize the area and bring security and stability to the area,” he said. The prime minister’s bottom line was that “Israel will do whatever it takes to defend its citizens.”

Russia has continued to ship weapons to Syria, despite the civil war there, but while it has reportedly delivered less-sophisticated air-defense systems, it refrained from providing Damascus with the S-300s, which have a range of up to 200 kilometers (125 miles), and the capability to track down and strike multiple targets simultaneously with lethal efficiency.

The weapon would mean a quantum leap in Syria’s air defense capability, including against neighboring countries.

Israel reportedly attacked suspected shipments of advanced Iranian weaponry — the Fateh-110 surface-to-surface missile — in Syria with back-to-back airstrikes this month. Israeli officials signaled there would be more attacks unless Syria refrains from trying to deliver such “game-changing” missiles to Hezbollah. Hezbollah said weapons shipments won’t cease.

On Wednesday, Israel reportedly warned Assad that further attacks were being considered, and that it would “bring down” his regime if he retaliated.

On Monday, Israeli Tourism Minister Uzi Landau accused Russia of destabilizing the Middle East by selling weapons to Assad’s regime. “Anyone who provides weaponry to terror organizations is siding with terror,” Landau said.

Russia: Iran must participate in Syria conference | JPost | Israel News.

Two Jordanian pilots killed in plane crash | The Times of Israel.

( Coming days after a similar story about a Turkish F-16, I’m not buying the explanation.  It’s Syria. – JW )

Routine flight developed unspecified ‘technical fault’ near the Syrian border

May 16, 2013, 5:07 pm

Illustrative photo of two F-16 Royal Jordanian Air Force jets (photo credit: CC BY-SA 3.0, by Caycee Cook, US Air Force, Wikimedia Commons)

AMMAN, Jordan (AP) — Jordan’s military says a trainer jet has crashed near the Syrian border, killing its two Jordanian pilots.

A spokesman says the British-made aerobatic T-67 Firefly trainer was on a routine flight early Thursday west of King Hussein Air College, a Royal Jordanian Air Force base in the border town of Mafraq, when it developed an unspecified “technical fault.”

The spokesman demanded anonymity under army regulations.

The base is believed to house 3,000 Syrian army and police defectors and 200 U.S. troops dispatched recently to bolster Jordan’s border defenses against potential Syrian threats.

The base is also believed to be the site where U.S. experts are training secular Syrian opposition fighters seeking to topple Bashar Assad. It is in a military zone that is off limits to the public.

Copyright 2013 The Associated Press.

Israel Hayom | Israel threatens more strikes in Syria over arms to Hezbollah.

( Doubling down… – JW )

Israeli official makes unprecedented threat in New York Times interview, says Israel determined to prevent transfer of advanced weapons to Hezbollah • Satellite photos show extent of damage to Damascus airport after alleged Israeli strike on May 3.

Israel Hayom | Diplomacy of delay.

Dan Margalit

Iran recruits online for militants to fight Israel – The Commentator.

Will the West install a political framework which secures peace and development in Syria, or will its people continue to suffer, much to the benefit of Iran’s paranoid leadership?

Iran has been recruiting for militants to fight Israel from Syrian territory

KAHLILI: Syrian crisis signals Iranian vulnerability – Washington Times.

Heightened pressure could unplug the nuclear threat

Shortly after Israeli warplanes struck inside Syria to take out Iranian missiles intended for Hezbollah, Iranian Defense Minister Gen. Ahmad Vahidi said, “The attack carried out by the Zionist regime will shorten this fake regime’s life.”

Gen. Vahidi is wrong about that, but only if the West has the resolve to help bring down the brutal clerical regime in Tehran before it acquires nuclear weapons.

Ever since the uprising in Syria began in March 2011 with demonstrations against the brutal regime of Bashar Assad, Iranian officials have warned that Syria is their red line.

Just two months into the uprising, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei held an emergency meeting in Tehran with commanders of the Revolutionary Guard, representatives of the Syrian Embassy, members of the Lebanese terrorist group Hezbollah and leaders of Iraq’s Sadr movement. The supreme leader demanded of the group that all operational and logistical forces be applied in order to stamp out the “blaze of sedition” in Syria and to destroy those who are “enemies of God” in that country.

As the uprising mushroomed into an all-out civil war, the Islamic regime, through its Quds Force and Revolutionary Guard, along with Hezbollah, reinforced the Syrian army as it massacred its own people, gathered intelligence on the rebels and devised plans to retaliate against America and Israel, thinking they were behind the effort to oust Mr. Assad.

In that pursuit, Ayatollah Khamenei sent a letter to the Obama administration in June 2011 filled with threats to American officials. The letter, which is said to have been delivered by Iraqi President Jalal Talabani, accused the United States of meddling in Syrian affairs and ordered the U.S. to cease and desist in pressuring the Syrian regime leadership, cautioning that Iran will retaliate against America.

As I reported a year ago, a war room was established among Iran, Syria and Hezbollah. If the United States or another NATO country attacked Syria, then those Middle Eastern allies would fire hundreds of missiles toward American assets in the region and at Israel to widen the conflict.

According to a source within the Iranian intelligence apparatus, there is now little hope that the Assad regime can be saved, hence the order for rapid shipment of sophisticated weapons to Hezbollah. By reinforcing its arsenal, Hezbollah can strike all of Israel and, as a last resort, engage Israel from within Syria, further complicating the situation in the Middle East.

Israel, worried about the disintegration of Syria and the further arming of Hezbollah, has warned continuously that giving “game-changing” weapons to Hezbollah is its red line.

Israel’s May 5 attack, the second in two days on a military site on the outskirts of Damascus, targeted a shipment of Fateh-110 missiles, which can reach almost anywhere in Israel with precision. Such weaponry would constitute a “game-changer” if it reached Hezbollah. A similar bombing in January by Israeli jets targeted other shipments to Hezbollah.

Despite the open threats against Israel, the same intelligence source said, regime officials have no intention of engaging the Jewish state directly unless America launches a direct attack against Syria or if there is an attack on Iran. In fact, he said, Iranian officials are worried about Israel attacking their nuclear facilities as they seek to create a nuclear-armed state that would be untouchable at that point.

However, Iranians have devised several plans to engage Israel through their forces in Syria and their proxies such as Hezbollah to draw the Jewish state into a wider conflict should Israel continue its attacks.

The source added that the regime also has devised plans for terrorist attacks against Israel, the U.S. homeland and their interests around the world as a warning to leave Syria alone. The fall of Mr. Assad, they think, would be a culmination of an effort to target the clerical regime in Iran.

Iran is facing deep troubles at home. International sanctions over its illicit nuclear program have pushed its economy into an uncontrollable spiral of inflation and unemployment to the level where members of the working class are having a hard time feeding themselves. Riots have broken out and, with the presidential election in June, different political factions are fighting among themselves. Fearing another uprising, the regime’s only goal is to maintain control.

The covert operations on both sides — Iran through terrorism and Israel by military action — are sure to escalate. Reports of explosions in Tehran at a military base thought to be the storage center of the regime’s ballistic missiles is yet another sign of this escalation. There is a history of similar explosions along with assassinations of Iranian nuclear scientists.

The brutal clerical regime in Iran is on the defensive, making this a time to push further for the fall of Mr. Assad and to increase sanctions and pressure against the Tehran regime. Once and for all, we must remove the masters of worldwide terrorism before they become nuclear-armed, which would indeed be a game-changer — with the world as its hostage.

Reza Kahlili is a pseudonym for a former CIA operative in Iran’s Revolutionary Guard and author of the award-winning book “A Time to Betray” (Simon & Schuster, 2010).

Islamist group says Hermon mortars fired to avenge ‘Nakba’ | The Times of Israel.

Unknown group takes responsibility after two rounds hit mountain, briefly shutting tourist area

A previously unknown Islamist group took responsibility Thursday for the firing of two mortar shells at Mount Hermon a day earlier. It was the first time since the outbreak of the Syrian uprising that the area was targeted, and it led authorities to shut down the tourist area for several hours.

In a message posted online, the self-described Abdul Qader Husseini Battalions of the Free Palestine movement said it “attacked an observatory of the Zionist entity on the occupied Golan Heights with missiles on the anniversary of return, May 15, 2013, avenging the martyrs of return [who died] last year.”

The group was likely referring to clashes between Israeli troops and Palestinian refugees in Syria on Nakba Day in 2011 that left 13 dead after the border fence was breached.

Palestinians mark the Nakba, or catastrophe of the founding of Israel, every May 15.

“We do not celebrate, but rather avenge our martyrs as we tell the Zionist enemy that this a battle of score settling,” the group wrote. “The operation included two missile barrages and was carried out at 5 a.m. Long live liberated Palestine.”

There were no reported injuries or damage from the mortar fire. The area in the Hermon, the mountain range that straddles the Lebanese-Syrian border and the Golan Heights, was promptly closed to hikers for several hours on the Shavuot holiday.

Israel lodged a complaint over the attack with UNDOF, the United Nations Disengagement Observer Force, which oversees the buffer zone between Syria and Israel established by the Security Council in the wake of the 1973 Yom Kippur War.

On Wednesday, Israel Radio reported that Tehran had approached Damascus about letting Lebanese terror group Hezbollah open a new front against Israel from Syrian territory.

The Lebanese daily al-Akhbar suggested last week that Iran had “reached a final decision” to respond to reported Israeli airstrikes on a weapons transfer in Syria by “turning the Golan into a new Fatah-land. The front has become open to Syrians and Palestinians and anyone who wants to fight Israel.”

Mortar shells fired from within Syria have landed in the Golan Heights several times in previous months, and Israel has often returned fire.

Last Monday, two shells hit the Israeli Golan Heights near the town of Ramat Magshimim, but no injuries or damage were reported. The next day, another mortar hit the southern Golan Heights as a result of the spillover from fighting in Syria, again without casualties or harm caused during the incident.

Aaron Kalman contributed to this report.

Report: Iran told Nasrallah to prevent Assad downfall ‘at all costs’ – Israel News, Ynetnews.

Arab official tells Kuwaiti newspaper Supreme Leader Khamenei instructed Shiite group leader to take on larger role in Syria war, block rebel supply routes

Roi Kais

Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei instructed Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah to prevent the downfall of Bashar Assad’s regime in Syria “at all costs,” the Kuwaiti newspaper Araa reported Thursday, citing a high-ranking Arab official.

The official said that during a meeting between Khamenei and Nasrallah in Tehran last month, the supreme leader told the secretary general of the Lebanese Shiite group to block all supply routes to the rebels fighting to overthrow the Syrian president.

According to the report, the demand surprised Nasrallah, but he treated it as a “religious edict.”

The newspaper’s source said the directive led the Shiite group to send to Syria a large number of trained fighters who succeeded in laying siege to the city of El Quseir, near Homs, while cutting off military supply routes to the rebels.

Syrian rebels (Photo: AP)

The source said Hezbollah helped bolster the Syrian army’s situation on the outskirts of Damascus.

Over the past few days a source affiliated with Hezbollah told the Arab press that Hezbollah units were taking part in the fighting in Syria and played a significant if not decisive role in the Syrian army’s recapture of a strategic city located on the international route between Damascus and Daraa, located in the south of the country.

The source said Hezbollah fighters were advancing southward at a fast pace and have reached the entrance to Daraa and the Syrian-Jordanian border.

A senior member of a Salafi jihadist group whose fighters are taking part in the Syrian war warned Hezbollah that if its fighters reach the border with Jordan they will be “burned by a blazing fire.” The senior member of the group, Muhammad al-Shalbi, resides in Jordan.

Jordanian Information Minister Mohammad Momani also responded to the report, saying he had no information regarding the presence of Hezbollah fighters near the border, but stressed that the Hashemite Kingdom would “not allow any element to breach the border.”

Syrian-Israeli war of words via Putin edges into Syrian-Hizballah war of attrition..

USS Kearsarge which docked in Eilat

Russian President Vladimir Putin and Prime Minister Netanyahu ended their three-hour meeting in Sochi Tuesday, May 14, at loggerheads on Syria. In fact, Putin warned his guest that Israel and its army, the IDF, were heading for war with Syria in which Russia might well be involved – and not just through the advanced S-300 anti-air missiles supplied to the Assad government. The case Netanyahu and Military Intelligence chief Maj. Gen. Aviv Kochavi put before Putin and Russian foreign intelligence chief, SVR Director Mikhail Fradkov, fell on deaf ears.
They found the Russian leader further infuriated by the docking that day at Israel’s Red Sea port of Eilat of the USS Kearsarge, carrying 1,800 marines and a consignment of 20 V-22 Osprey helicopters which US Defense Secretary Chuck Hagel had promised to supply to Israel during his April visit.
Putin viewed the stationing of US forces in the Gulf of Aqaba just two hours away the Israeli-Syrian border for repelling Syrian-Iranian-Hizballah aggression against Israel or Jordan – signaled by the Kearsage’s arrival – as an act of bad faith by Washington. On the one hand, they want us to cooperate for an international conference to end the bloodshed in Syria, while on the other, they deploy military forces, he complained to Netanyahu.

The Israeli prime minister countered with a warning that Israel would continue to strike advanced weapons in Syria that were destined for Hizballah. And if President Bashar Assad hit back for Israel’s May 5 bombardment of weapons stores on Mount Qassioun near Damascus, Israel would intensify its bombardments of Syrian military targets and weapons until Assad was left to fight off rebel assaults empty-handed.
Putin rejected this threat as implausible.
Neither Putin nor Netanyahu put all their cards on the table, but the conversation ended with the Russian leader fully confident that his capabilities for safeguarding Assad were greater than Israel’s ability to destroy him.

In the end, Netanyahu and his party arrived home Tuesday evening with a bad feeling. They were certain that Moscow had given Assad the green light to go through with his threat to make the Syrian Golan and the Horan of southern Syria “a front for resistance” – i.e. the platforms for embarking on a war of attrition against northern Israel with the help of a flow of advanced weapons to Hizballah.
The Syrian ruler is strongly encouraged to adopt this path by Tehran. Hizballah’s leader Hassan Nasrallah has embraced it. And the radical Palestinian leader, Ahmed Jibril, head of the Assad-satellite Popular Front-General Command, has eagerly offered his services.

And indeed, Wednesday, the day after Netanyahu’s trip to Sochi, Jibril’s group let loose with mortar fire on the Israeli Mt. Hermon ski site, firing from a Syrian army position.

Israeli military sources confirmed later that these were no stray shells from a Syrian-army-rebel battle as in former cases, but a deliberate attack. In Jerusalem, it was taken as a direct consequence of Moscow’s account to Assad of the conversation between the Russian and Israeli leaders. They concluded that Assad took it for granted that he was now at liberty to go on the offensive against Israel.
Wednesday night, Netanyahu’s office reacted to this deterioration with a swift and strong warning.
Israeli media were informed bluntly that if the Assad chose to retaliate for Israel’s air strikes, he would be removed from power.
That same night, “a senior Israeli official” contacted The New York Times with a more detailed warning quoted by the paper: “If Syrian President Assad reacts by attacking Israel, or tries to strike Israel through his terrorist proxies, he will risk forfeiting his regime, for Israel will retaliate.”

Within hours, early Thursday morning, May 16, Jerusalem had its answer from Damascus.
A Palestinian group calling itself “Martyrs of the Abdel Qader al-Husseini Brigades” (named for the commander of a Palestinian force fighting Israel in its 1948 War of Independence) claimed responsibility for the “rockets” aimed at an Israeli military observation post in the Golan Heights. They were fired in honor of Nakba Day, said the statement released in Damascus “We are not celebrating but avenging the blood of our martyrs.”

A video showing the launch was appended.
Palestinian terrorist groups habitually use made-up names when claiming attacks, a practice often followed by al Qaeda, but this one was easily identified by Israel and taken to mean that Assad had begun using what the Israeli official referred to in The New York Times as “his terrorist proxies.”

Depending on the next move decided on by Prime Minister Netanyahu, Defense Minister Moshe Ya’alon and Chief of Staff Lt. Gen. Benny Gantz, this incident could mark the tipping-point of a slide towards a war confrontation against Israel by Syria, Hizballah and other Assad proxies.