WarSclerotic

Israel steps up to the plate.

Vice President Joe Biden addresses the American-Israel Public Affairs Committee. (Susan Walsh/Associated Press)

The Post reports: “Israeli forces have carried out an airstrike against a shipment of sophisticated missiles bound for the Lebanese political and military organization Hezbollah, officials in Washington, Lebanon and Israel told reporters Saturday…. Lebanese authorities and residents had already reported unusually intense Israeli overflights during the previous 48 hours, suggesting the warplanes may have struck their target from Lebanese airspace.” Israeli planes struck again on Sunday outside Damascus.

So much for the suggestion by critics of stronger U.S. action that Syria’s anti-aircraft system is formidable. It seems someone in the Israeli government took a not-too-subtle swipe at the Obama administration’s equivocating on Bashar al-Assad’s use of chemical weapons. “Israeli officials described the missiles targeted in the Friday strike as ‘game-changing’ weapons, according to the Associated Press. They said they were not chemical weapons, but advanced, long-range, ground-to-ground missiles.” Translation: When Israel draws a red line, it means it.

Not only does the Israeli action contrast with the U.S. government’s fecklessness, but it also raises the issue of whether the United States would prefer Israel police the Middle East. It is unbecoming for a superpower to let little Israel take on the Iranian surrogates. It will likely unnerve our allies elsewhere and embolden foes in other parts of the world.

As for the Middle East, when a U.S. president is this passive and unwilling to act in accord with its words, the West and the Sunni states can take comfort in knowing that Israel is there to rein in the mullahs and their surrogates.

Two other events are significant. Both emphasize the degree to which American reticence is tipping the balance of power in the region toward Iran.

First, the State Department could only issue empty blather about how horrified the United States was after “hundreds of Sunnis fled the area around the nearby town of Baniyas after reports of another incident overnight Friday, in which at least eight deaths have been confirmed.” The United States is showing its words to be empty. Why even bother to comment?

Second: “Also Saturday, Assad made his second public appearance in three days, visiting a Damascus university to inaugurate a statue dedicated to students who have died in the violence. Footage aired by state television showed him being mobbed by cheering, waving supporters. Assad rarely appears in public, and his visibility this week suggests his confidence has been buoyed by recent gains by his forces in some parts of the country and by indications that the international community remains reluctant to involve itself in the Syrian conflict, despite the reports that his regime has used chemical weapons.”

Yes, Assad and his senior partners in Tehran should feel rather confident these days. The United States is obviously unwilling to back up its rhetoric with action. Syria is a dress rehearsal  for the bigger conflict between Iran and the West. There, too, one suspects, Israel will be forced to act. For what Israeli prime minister could rely on this administration to act? If Obama won’t take on Syria, there is little chance he’ll make good on his threats to Iran.

Israel’s likely targets in Syria: Iran and Hezbollah – latimes.com.

Israeli soldiers standing on tanks Sunday in the Golan Heights near the Syrian town of Kan Arnaby. Syria’s Foreign Ministry called an Israeli air strike Sunday on a weapons facility near Damascus were a “declaration of war.” (Atef Safadi / European Pressphoto Agency / May 5, 2013)

Specter of Islamist terror – Israel Opinion, Ynetnews.

Op-ed: Terror network in US protected by American reluctance to question loyalty of immigrants

Nicole Brackman

In the immediate hours and days after September 11, 2001 it became clear to most Americans that the values of tolerance and democracy – cornerstones of the “American dream ” – for which countless immigrants have journeyed to this land are at risk. In the 12 years since 9/11, and in the wake of combat fatigue from Afghanistan and the Iraq wars, many have become complacent – arguing that there is no longer a threat to our values or our lives.

Yet, the seeming period of homeland tranquility is only a result of internal security measures designed to prevent similar attacks. The threat to American domestic security is real and what appear to be isolated violent incidents over time are in fact part of a more insidious pattern that can be traced back to the influence of al-Qaeda and Islamist extremist infiltration.

On the flawless bright spring day of April 15, 2013 – Patriot’s Day in Massachusetts – explosions rocked the peaceful and festive finish line of the Boston Marathon, where hundreds of spectators and runners celebrated on Boylston Street. Two homemade bombs using pressure cookers had one goal – killing and injuring as many in the crowd as possible.

The bombs generated massive casualties – including the deaths of three (one an eight year old boy); the media broadcast the all-too-familiar bloody and horrific depictions of severed limbs and traumatized victims seen before in Jerusalem, Tel Aviv, London and Madrid : Attacks on civilians in peaceful, open spaces where the element of surprise catches everyone off guard.

Though authorities were reluctant at first to identify terrorism (of any ideology) as a motive, it became clear on the Friday following the Boston bombing when suspect photographs were released, that the specter of Islamist terror had once again breached American soil. As revealed in the FBI interrogation, Dzhokhar Tsarnaev told investigators that he and his brother Tamerlan learned how to make the bombs from Inspire (an al-Qaeda Arabian Peninsula periodical featuring jihadi thought and terror methods).

A brother-in-law of the Tsarnaev brothers (Elmirza Khozhugov) stated that Tamerlan began visiting internet conspiracy sites as his Muslim faith became extremist. Tamerlan’s trajectory of radicalization suggests he was sympathetic to hard-line Salafi-Wahhabi currents – in other words, a proselyte of the al-Qaeda cause.

The Boston bombings shocked America – and the world. But the bombing of the Boston Marathon was far from an isolated incident of a naturalized American ‘gone bad.’ As with the 2002 attempt by US citizen Jose Padilla to detonate a ‘dirty’ bomb; the attempted bombing of Fort Dix in 2007; the June, 2009 Little Rock, Arkansas army recruitment office murders of two soldiers; the November, 2009 Fort Hood shooting (in which 13 were murdered and over 30 wounded); and the May 2010 attempted bombing of New York City’s Times Square – the Boston bombing was part of a pattern in which Islamist ideologues recruited, nurtured, and trained American citizens (or longstanding residents) to carry out violent terror acts against US targets.

Tamerlan Tsarnaev (L) and younger brother Dzhokhar (Photo: AP)

This was no secret to the American intelligence community (nor, truthfully, to the Bush or Obama administrations). The chief architect and demagogue behind the strategy, Anwar al-Awlaki, was an American/Yemeni imam, assassinated by a 2011 American drone attack as a threat to national security and a chief al-Qaeda operative.

His death removed the head of the medusa but not before a vast infrastructure had been conceived and stealthily constructed within the US for identifying and fostering likely recruits to the cause of Islamist terror. This network continues to evolve – evidenced by the Tsarnaev brothers – obscured and protected by a deep-seated American reluctance, vouchsafed by Constitutional liberties, to question the loyalty of its immigrant citizens or their religious institutions.

Attempts to deflect attention and blame away from the threat of domestic Islamist terror cells abound: Witness the caricatured hysteria of Richard Falk (UN special rapporteur on human rights in the Palestinian territories) who conjured the ominous phantom of another global threat by blaming the Boston bombings on Israel: “(A)s long as Tel Aviv has the compliant ear of the American political establishment those who wish for peace and justice in the world should not rest easy.”

National security in a post-9/11 world involves profiling and collecting intelligence that would prevent future attacks. Though Americans are weary after a decade of war and an enemy that seems to thrive on despair, coordinated and concerted efforts at the highest levels of government are imperative.

The Boston Marathon – over a century old – celebrates the vanquishing of endurance over adversity. Runners (whether they run one, or 26.2 miles) understand what it is to persevere despite pain, to overcome doubt and fatigue, to revel in the triumph that is simply finishing the race. Few (if any) sports are as inherently democratic as running; there are no other examples of competitive events in which professional athletes perform in the same venue as amateurs.

Most runners (aside from the very elite) compete not against others but for themselves – to gain a personal best time, to demonstrate victory over a battle against weight or other personal demons, to raise funds for a cherished charitable cause, to give moral support to those going through difficult times. Runners cheer for, encourage, and guide each other through the most challenging parts of the race – and depend on spectators to add their voices to the celebration of endurance that is the marathon.

The Tsarnaev brothers and their handlers attacked at the heart of one of the nation’s most revered sporting events and marred the purity of that experience. But they picked the wrong crowd to try and intimidate – the demonstrations of personal courage and heroism that marked the aftermath of the bombing, and the response of runners (and others) around the world to rally behind the victims – bear that out. Boston showed that vigilance and determination work and make us not only “Boston strong” but American safe and strong.

Article written by Nicole Brackman and Asaf Romirowsky

Nicole Brackman is a historian who writes extensively on Israeli and Middle Eastern politics. Asaf Romirowsky, is a Philadelphia-based Middle East analyst, is an adjunct scholar at the Middle East Forum

‘Damascus airstrike killed dozens of elite troops’ | The Times of Israel.

Syrian military official says soldiers died guarding critical facilities, some of which were close to presidential palace

An image from the site in western Syria allegedly targeted by Israel, May 5. (photo credit: YouTube screenshot)

A high-ranking Syrian military official said that “dozens of elite troops” were killed in the Israeli airstrikes on targets near Damascus, some of which were close to the presidential palace.

The unnamed official told the New York Times, in an interview published on Monday, that the facilities were in some of the “country’s most tightly secured and strategic areas.”

Local resident and rebel activists backed up the report and said that the airstrikes, allegedly targeting Iranian missile shipments en route to Hezbollah, hit bases of the elite Republican Guard stationed in the capital.

Speaking to reporters about the attack French Foreign Minister Laurent Fabius said that “We can understand (Israel) but it is a risk”, AFP reported. Laurent, who was on a visit to Hong Kong, added that “if the conflict spreads to neighboring countries, it is a turning point in the nature of this conflict.”

Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu landed in China on Monday morning and said only that “he was prevented from addressing the Syria attacks”.

Netanyahu’s decision to go ahead with his China trip — he had canceled twice previously, irritating Beijing, and indicated Sunday he never considered canceling this time — was designed in part to underline Israel’s desire to maintain relative calm, and avoid a further escalation of hostilities, analysts said. Channel 2 Arab affairs analyst Ehud Yaari said there were “no specific Syrian threats of retaliation.”

Syria’s Deputy Foreign Minister Faisal Mekdad warned Sunday that the Friday and Sunday airstrikes constituted an Israeli “declaration of war.” The Syrian Cabinet said in a statement that Israel’s alleged strikes into its territory “opened the door to all possibilities,” and that it reserved its right “to protect the homeland, the state and the people against any internal or external aggression by all means.”

Syrian state television cited anonymous sources warning that Syrian missile batteries were prepared to attack Israeli targets in case of future attacks. Earlier on Sunday, a pro-Hezbollah TV station in Lebanon claimed that Syria had deployed missiles directed at Israel, and that a decision had been taken in principle to respond to the airstrikes. Still, Israeli officials said there was only a “low likelihood” of immediate Syrian retaliation.

Israel on Sunday deployed two Iron Dome anti-missile batteries, in Safed and Haifa, and Haifa Mayor Yonah Yahav ordered preparations in his city for the possibility of Syrian retaliation. Israel also closed off its airspace in the north for the first time since the 2006 Lebanon War, halting civilian flights to and from Haifa’s airport through Thursday.

The Iron Dome system has proved highly effective in stopping short-range rocket fire, intercepting 84 percent of the incoming rockets from Gaza it aimed at during Operation Pillar of Defense last November, according to official IDF statistics.

Speaking after an emergency meeting of the Israeli cabinet, Tourism Minister Uzi Landau (Yisrael Beytenu) said that it was “essential” that Israel maintain its policy of preventing “certain weaponry from reaching terrorist groups,” but did not formally confirm Israeli responsibility for the strikes. He urged Israelis to “go about their business as usual.”

Such advice notwithstanding, Channel 10 reported a quadrupling of Israeli requests for gas mask protection kits Sunday.

Syrian Deputy Foreign Minister Faisal Mekdad. (screen capture: Youtube/Channel4News)

Mekdad made his “declaration of war” statement during an interview with CNN on Sunday morning, hours after Israel reportedly struck military targets on the outskirts of Damascus for the second time in 48 hours. He said Syria had “dealt with” similar conflicts with Israel “on several occasions.” Syria’s “retaliation was always painful,” he said, “and they will suffer again.”

Mekdad also asserted that the attacks reflected an alliance between Islamic terrorists fighting against Assad’s regime and Israel, and warned that Syria would retaliate as and when it saw fit.

Syrian officials made similar threats after an alleged Israeli airstrike on a weapons convey near the Lebanese-Syrian border at the end of January 2013.

The Foreign Ministry in Damascus stated that the strikes “killed and wounded several people.” In a letter sent to the United Nations and the UN Security Council, the ministry also said that the “Israeli aggression… caused widespread destruction.”

Syria’s Information Minister Omran al-Zoubi said soon afterward that “all options are open” for Syria to respond to the attacks, which he claimed conclusively demonstrated the alliance between “the terrorists, infidels and Zionists” fighting the Assad regime. Syria would “not allow itself to be humiliated,” al-Zoubi said, “and to see its security compromised.”

However, al-Zoubi also said the regime’s priority was to battle the forces inside Syria that were challenging the regime, and he denied claims in some Arab media that an Israeli plane had been shot down by Syrian forces and two pilots captured.

Egypt and the Arab League condemned the strike, with Cairo’s Foreign Ministry saying it was against any infraction of the sovereignty of Arab countries.

A Syrian state TV report claimed Israeli rockets hit a military research site on the outskirts of the capital at about 2 a.m.

Netanyahu convened the security cabinet on Sunday afternoon to discuss the escalating hostilities with Syria. He delayed his Sunday evening departure for China by two hours in order to participate in the meeting.

It was unclear how the blasts in Syria would affect Netanyahu’s agenda in China. Dr. Yoram Evron, a senior research fellow at the Institute for National Security Studies and a faculty member of the University of Haifa’s Asian Studies Department, said Netanyahu would cite Israeli assessments of weapon transfers in the region in his discussions with the Chinese government to warn them of Iran acquiring a nuclear weapon.

“Stability in the Middle East is not only an Israeli interest, it’s also something the Chinese are worried about,” Evron said. “Israel has long argued that a nuclear Iran would be a danger not only for its own security but would destabilize the entire Middle East and lead to a region-wide arms race.”

Evron said Netanyahu would likely point out in Beijing that Tehran is already transferring weapons to Hezbollah, via Syria, and the possession of nuclear weapons would embolden the ayatollahs’ regime even more to act to destabilize the region. As North Korea’s actions in recent weeks have shown, Netanyahu might argue, rogue regimes closing in on the bomb are hard to control, and that is in nobody’s interest, Evron added.

Still, while the Chinese government does not want to look indifferent to what’s happening in Syria, leaders of the Asian giant are unlikely to change their pro-Assad position in the wake of Netanyahu’s visit. “China’s central position is to prevent a military intervention aiming to bring down Assad,” Evron said.

The fact that Netanyahu was nonetheless going ahead with the China trip, diplomatic sources said, underlined Israel’s intention to de-escalate tensions with Syria. Furthermore, the sources said, the fact that Israel was privately stressing that the missiles hit in the strike came from Iran, and were intended for Hezbollah, and that Israel reportedly did not enter Syrian airspace but rather carried out the strikes from inside Lebanese air space, was intended to reduce the focus on Syria and thus reduce the likelihood of a Syrian military response.

Army Radio reported Israeli concerns that Hezbollah might seek further Iranian missile shipments, and said the security establishment was therefore remaining on alert. There were likely to be more such Israeli attacks, Channel 10 said.

Activists opposed to the Assad regime reported that a blast hit an ammunition depot in the Qassiyoun mountains late Saturday. It was not clear if that reported incident was related to any Israeli activity. According to a Syrian official who spoke to Al Arabiya, the Syrian regime uses its bases on the mountain to fire missiles at rebel targets in Damascus.

MK Tzachi Hanegbi (Likud), a former chairman of the Knesset’s Foreign Affairs and Defense Committee, said Sunday it was unlikely Syria would hit back at Israel, but did not rule this out. “A Syrian retaliation is always an option,” he conceded, “but apparently it was deemed to be a long shot.”

“Iran is testing Israel’s and the US’s determination to uphold ‘red lines.’ And what it is seeing in Syria is that at least some of the actors take red lines seriously,” said former IDF intelligence chief Amos Yadlin.

Iran’s Foreign Ministry spokesman condemned Sunday’s Israeli airstrike, but gave no hint of a possible stronger response from Tehran or its allies. Ramin Mehmanparast urged countries in the region to remain united against Israel.

“As a Muslim nation, we back Syria, and if there is need for training we will provide them with the training, but won’t have any active involvement in the operations,” Iranian general Ahmad Reza Pourdastan said in remarks reported by the official IRNA news agency.

“The Syrian army has accumulated experience during years of conflict with the Zionist regime and is able to defend itself and doesn’t need foreign assistance,” he added.

AP contributed to this report.

Netanyahu’s message to Assad: Israel’s sole interest is to bar weapons from reaching Hezbollah – Diplomacy & Defense – Israel News | Haaretz Daily Newspaper.

The PM is sending a pacifying message to Assad, hoping this will make it easier for the president to avoid responding to the strikes.

By Barak Ravid | May.06, 2013 | 1:57 AM | 8

Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu in Jerusalem, Sunday, May 5. Photo by Emil Salman

The diplomatic-security cabinet met in Jerusalem for more than three hours Sunday afternoon to discuss tensions on the northern border in the wake of reported Israeli airstrikes in Syria. According to two senior Israeli officials briefed on the outcome of the meeting, the main decision was to send as pacifying a message as possible to Syrian President Bashar Assad, in order to prevent further escalation in the north.

Though Israel has been careful not to formally claim responsibility for the airstrikes, officials in Jerusalem were pleased by the international community’s response. U.S. President Barack Obama stressed that Israel has the right to defend itself, as did British Foreign Secretary William Hague. Russia and China said nothing, while even the condemnations in the Arab world were few and half-hearted.

As part of its effort to send a pacifying message, Israel will continue to maintain official silence about the two airstrikes reported in foreign media outlets over the past few days. A senior Israeli official said the goal is to make it clear to Assad that Israel’s sole interest is in preventing advanced weaponry from reaching Hezbollah: It isn’t interested in intervening in Syria’s civil war or helping the rebels topple his regime.

Sunday’s meeting of the diplomatic-security cabinet, which consisted mainly of briefings by the heads of the intelligence agencies and Israel Defense Forces Chief of Staff Benny Gantz, was the second in three days. The previous meeting took place Thursday night, a few hours before the first reported airstrike. A few hours before the second reported airstrike, on Saturday, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu paid a secret visit to the headquarters of the IDF’s Northern Command.

Despite the weekend’s tensions, Netanyahu decided to depart for China as planned on Sunday. The fact that he did so indicates the intelligence community views the chances of either Syria or Hezbollah responding to the reported Israeli airstrikes as low. Moreover, going ahead with the visit is part of Jerusalem’s effort to send a pacifying message to Assad.

Netanyahu and his advisors concluded that canceling the visit at the last minute would be interpreted by Syria and Hezbollah as a sign of Israeli intentions to escalate the situation. The prime minister also wanted to avoid sparking a crisis with Beijing, after he had already offended the Chinese leadership by canceling a visit at the last minute in November 2010. Still the diplomatic-security cabinet meeting did cause Netanyahu to delay his flight by almost three hours.

In a conversation with the reporters accompanying him to China after boarding the plane, Netanyahu declined to comment on the situation in Syria, focusing instead on the importance of his state visit to China. “I know what you want, but I’m barred from talking about it,” he said. “In any case, I never considered canceling my trip to China.”

Netanyahu will return to Israel on Friday. In his absence, Defense Minister Moshe Ya’alon will serve as acting prime minister. Netanyahu will receive regular updates on the security situation while in China, and also in the air. But if an escalation occurs requiring the convening of the diplomatic-security cabinet in order to make decisions, it would take him many hours to return to Israel.

The prime minister has had bad luck with previous trips abroad at moments of high security tension. In May 2010, for instance, he was in Canada during the navy’s botched interception of a Turkish-sponsored flotilla to Gaza. He and his aides had thought the chances of the raid turning into a diplomatic crisis were low, and therefore decided against canceling the visit. But in fact, it turned into a major crisis.

Hopefully, current assessments of the likelihood of escalation in the north aren’t similarly flawed. But if they are, Netanyahu is liable to find himself flying back to Israel mid-week instead of having a comfortable chat with Chinese President Xi Jinping.

An attack on the road to war?.

Amir Rapaport

5/5/2013

Stockpiles of missiles apparently intended for Hezbollah were attacked again in Syria last night, in an attack that’s being attributed to the Israeli Air Force. If the summer of 2013 ends without war, it will not be taken for granted. With the start of summer, the region is on the verge of reaching a boiling point, and tensions only rose this weekend.

The high level of tension in the Israeli north is currently due to global media reports of attacks directed against long-range surface-to-surface missiles that were apparently intended for Hezbollah. According to the publications, the missiles in question were Syrian-produced M-600s, which would have posed a serious threat from Israel’s perspective had they fallen to the hands of Hezbollah. These missiles can carry warheads weighing nearly half a ton, and have guidance mechanisms that can allow them to hit any target in Israel’s central region with a precision of up to 50 meters.

Furthermore, the missiles are propelled by solid fuel and carried by a portable launcher – meaning that they can be launched within mere minutes, even from Lebanon’s northern areas, making it very difficult for the IAF to prevent their launch.

The M-600 missile is very similar to the Iranian-produced Fateh-110 with regards to its capabilities. In fact, both the Fateh-110 and the M-600 are based on upgraded Chinese missiles, and the main difference between the two is the country of production. According to previous publications, Hezbollah may have received a shipment of Syrian M-600 missiles or Iranian Fateh-110 missiles back in 2010, However Israel is determined to prevent the terror organization from acquiring additional missiles (if it does in fact possess them already).

The weekend attacks attributed to Israel do not come as a surprise. In recent days, there have been reports in Lebanon concerning many IAF sorties, and even reports of Israeli strikes in Syria, which were incorrect (but which may have been ahead of their time). Beyond the sorties, Israeli warnings were made in the recent days, including from the Israeli Minister of Defense Moshe Ya’alon, that Israel will not accept the transfer of strategic weapons from Syria to Lebanon.
The weapons that Israel considers to be strategic weapons that it will not allow to fall into Hezbollah’s hands are SA-17 missiles, Russian-produced shore-to-sea Yakhont missiles, chemical weapons and long-ranged missiles such as the Fateh-110 or M-600 missiles. The last time that an attack of strategic weaponry in Syria intended for Hezbollah was attributed to Israel was four months ago, when it was reported that Israel attacked a convoy of SA-17 missiles.

According to the publications this weekend, the attack that occurred on Friday morning was directed towards a stockpile of surface-to-surface missiles in the area of the Damascus airport.

The attack occurred against the backdrop of the intense combat taking place in the framework of the internal civil war, with Hezbollah combatants, with considerable Iranian assistance in the form of weapons and advisors, standing beside the Bashar al-Assad regime. Israel is assessing that Hezbollah is interested in the transfer of strategic weapons to Lebanese territory in exchange for its support, weapons that are presently on Syrian soil. As it seems, the warnings were not useful and Hezbollah did intend to transfer the weapons soon.

Throughout the weekend, Israel has officially maintained a policy of ambiguity with regards to the reports concerning the attacks. The ambiguity can primarily serve Hezbollah and Syria, as an official Israeli admission to attacks could force them to attack in retaliation. However, Israeli officials knew to say to global media during the weekend that “Israel will continue opposing the transfer of strategic weapons from Syria to Lebanon and will work to prevent such transfers.”

Against the background of the reports, assessments are that an attack such as the one attributed to Israel can be carried out with several quartettes of F-16 aircraft. It is possible that the attack was carried out from within Lebanese territory in order to bypass Syria’s advanced antiaircraft systems. Israel has the ability to attack ground targets from the air, including from ranges of several kilometers, through the use of US armaments launched from the air, or via Spice missiles produced by Rafael. These missiles can identify targets precisely by comparing photos of the target obtained from a camera on the missile to previously stored photos.

Within this, Israeli officials said during the weekend that Israel’s red line concerning Syria and Hezbollah remains as it was – Israel is determined to foil any transfer of strategic weapons from Syria to Lebanon.

However, Israel is working to lower the tension along the northern borders, stemming in part from exercises taking place these weeks in the northern arena. Despite the exercises and the alleged attacks, there have been no signs of force movement or immediate responses on the part of Syria or Hezbollah. However, the Israeli defense establishment is not ruling out that Hezbollah will attempt to respond by way of attacking Israeli targets abroad (Bashar al-Assad is apparently more busy with his civil war than he is preoccupied with the Israeli attacks).

In any case, as time passes towards the peak of the summer, the IDF’s readiness is increasing due to the possibility of the continued deterioration of the situation – on the northern front or with regards to Iran.

Israel’s perilous calculus in Syria | The Times of Israel.

The latest Iranian-made Fatah-110 missile is relatively accurate, carries a 600 kg. warhead, and can reach most of Israel from southern Lebanon. The question is whether it was truly vital to stop this shipment reaching Hezbollah

By Mitch Ginsburg May 5, 2013, 10:40 pm

Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and the chief of the General Staff, Lt. Gen. Benny Gantz, before a cabinet meeting in November (Photo credit: Kobi Gideon/ GPO/ Flash 90)

Israel, if the international reports are correct, has pulled the rope taut in Syria. Orange balls of fire bloomed early Sunday in central Damascus for the second time in 48 hours. Hours later Syria’s Deputy Foreign Minister, Faisal Mekdad, called the strikes a “declaration of war.”

Israel’s Deputy Defense Minister Danny Danon, speaking on Army Radio on Sunday afternoon, would not claim responsibility for the attacks. He did say, though, that “Israel cannot allow dangerous weapons to be passed on to terrorists, and we will do everything in order to protect our interests.”

A look at the weaponry that was targeted and where it was housed, along with the situation in Syria and the looming deadline in Iran, helps to shed some light on Israel’s dangerous calculus as it deals with one confrontation next door – in Syria; one that could be ignited at any moment – with Hezbollah; and one that looms in the future – with Iran.

On April 21, Defense Minister Moshe Ya’alon announced three red lines regarding the situation in Syria: chemical weapons crossing into rogue hands; a cross-border attack; and the transfer of sophisticated weapons to Hezbollah. The Fatah-110 missiles (also known as M600s) – the target of the Damascus strikes — certainly nuzzle up to that third line. Apparently, for Israel’s decision-makers these past few days, they cross it.

The Iranian-developed missiles have a 250-300 kilometer range, carry a 500-600 kilogram warhead — depending on the model — and, significantly, have a relatively advanced guidance system, making them more precise than the heavier and more lethal Scud D.

The most advanced model, exhibited last year, has an accuracy range of 100 meters. That, along with the fact that it is propelled by solid fuel and frequently mounted on a Mercedes truck platform, means it can be fired quickly.

Alon Ben-David, Channel 10s military analyst, said Sunday night that this combination of range (meaning most of Israel could be hit from southern Lebanon), accuracy (enabling the targeting of specific installations), and warhead size (large enough to take down a bloc, not merely a building) — in the fourth generation model that was en route to Hezbollah — was what made this missile shipment so dangerous.

The Fatah-110s are not, however, as advanced as the Yachont surface-to-sea missile, a Russian state of the art weapon that would put every Israeli ship within 300 kilometers of Lebanon’s coast in peril and would endanger some of Israel’s gas drilling platforms.

Nor are they are potent as the SA-17 – the Russian anti-aircraft weapon installed in Syria that seems to have shut Syria’s skies to attacking planes for the time being. (Reports indicate that the Friday and Sunday strikes were carried out from Lebanese airspace.)

And finally, nor are they entirely new to Hezbollah. In 2010 Syria transferred 10 Scud D missiles and dozens, perhaps hundreds, of earlier generation Fatah-110s into Lebanon.

Therefore it would seem that timing, the quality of the thwarted shipments, along perhaps with quantity – which influences damage potential and poses a greater challenge to Israel’s still-not-battle-tested, mid-range missile defense systems – were the deciding factors.

Professor Eyal Zisser, Israel’s foremost Syria expert, told Army Radio that the strikes seemed to mark a bending of the old rules, by which Israel monitored Iranian arms moving through Damascus en route to Hezbollah but did not strike in Syria.

Israel’s calculus today, it would appear — whether it be a bending of the old rules or a hawkish interpretation of the new red lines — relates both to President Bashar Assad’s relative strength and his weakness.

The Assad regime, as Zisser noted, is looking straight into the whites of its enemies’ eyes. It is weakened and otherwise engaged. In this reality, Israeli leaders could well have calculated that Assad, battling for his life, will ultimately duck into the zone of denial – noting that the weapons hit in the airstrikes were from Iran and were heading to Lebanon, and were merely resting on Syrian soil. All this would reduce the likelihood of Syrian retaliation.

Yet Israel would also have taken into account that the Assad regime is not so weak that it is ready to opt for the Samson option – suicide. For over a year now it has been carving out a safe haven –- in less pleasant words: a sort of ethnic cleansing –- in the Alawite regions in western Syria. This is Assad’s back-up plan. Just this weekend, dozens of Sunnis were killed in the Banias region, some executed.

If Assad truly feels the end is near, it will have been recognized, he might be tempted to strike Israel, perhaps with a volley of Scud D missiles, and then retreat to that safe haven. This would provide a cozy alibi: he was not ousted from Damascus by his own people, who grew weary of his tyranny and battled him for over two years, he could say, but rather by Israel, which joined hands with the rebel forces.

For now, though, the wide assessment is that Assad’s regime, though battling, still enjoys what IDF Chief of General Staff Lt. Gen. Benny Gantz recently called Russia’s “strange” support and Hezbollah’s “neck-deep involvement.” The end is not yet all that near.

Finally, as in every Middle East confrontation, Iran looms large in all of Israel’s calculations. Amos Yadlin, the head of a security think tank in Tel Aviv and a former commander of the IDF’s military intelligence branch,  asserted earlier Sunday that the importance of the strike was not so much the nature of the attack as the very fact of it. “Iran is testing Israel and the United States’ determination on the matter of red lines,” Yadlin said. “Some have turned pink or white, but the importance for Israel is that it acted.”

In other words, the airstrikes were not about game-changing weapons – a term Yadlin rejected – but about clarity vis-à-vis Iran.

Others have suggested that Israel should seek as much quiet as possible while preparing for a possible showdown with Iran. Former head of intelligence for IAF Special Operations, Col. (res) Ronen Cohen, told Army Radio that what Israel should seek is “a cleaning of the arena” in advance of the looming confrontation with Iran.

Instead, as matters stood Sunday night, while Syria seemed to have put its rhetoric on simmer, Hezbollah, taking losses on virtuallly every front, edged closer to making a mess of the region.

Cohen said he feared that either the strikes over the weekend, or perhaps the coming one, would trigger a response – from Assad or Hezbollah. “And that could bring us into a campaign that no wants and one that, in my opinion, is for naught.”

Why so?

“Because, truly, not all of the shipments can be stopped.”

Syria Condemns Israel for Air Assault Near Damascus – NYTimes.com.

SANA, via European Pressphoto Agency

Rubble was cleared in an area near Damascus. The Syrian government said the attack “opened the door to all possibilities.”

By ANNE BARNARD

¶ BEIRUT, Lebanon — The Syrian government publicly condemned Israel for a powerful air assault on military targets near Damascus early Sunday, saying it “opened the door to all possibilities,” as fear spread throughout the region that the country’s civil war could expand beyond its borders.

¶ The attack, which sent brightly lighted columns of smoke and ash high into the night sky above the Syrian capital, struck several critical military facilities in some of the country’s most tightly secured and strategic areas, killing dozens of elite troops stationed near the presidential palace, a high-ranking Syrian military official said in an interview.

¶ Israel refused to confirm the attacks, the second in three days, and Israeli analysts said it was unlikely that Israel was seeking to intervene in the Syrian conflict. They said the attacks in all likelihood expanded and continued Israel’s campaign to prevent the Syrian government from transferring weapons to Hezbollah, the Shiite militia and political party in neighboring Lebanon that is one of Israel’s most dangerous foes.

¶ Rebels, opposition activists and residents said the strikes hit bases of the elite Republican Guard and storehouses of long-range missiles, in addition to a military research center that American officials have called the country’s main chemical weapons facility.

¶ An American official said a more limited strike early Friday at Damascus International Airport was also meant to destroy weapons being sent from Iran to Hezbollah.

¶ Concerns flared about whether Hezbollah might attack Israel in retaliation, possibly drawing Lebanon into the conflict. Israel deployed two of its Iron Dome missile-defense batteries in its northern cities. Iran’s IRNA news agency said Israel could expect a “crushing” retaliation from Syria or “the resistance,” meaning Hezbollah.

¶ Analysts said Syria, weakened by the conflict, and Hezbollah, overstretched as it commits more forces to support the Syrian government, were unlikely to act, but they cautioned that a miscalculation by either side that set off an escalation could not be ruled out. And President Bashar al-Assad could choose to mount covert attacks on Israeli targets abroad, rather than engage its military directly.

¶ One senior Israeli official, who spoke on the condition of anonymity, said he did not think that Israel was entering a war with Syria and suggested that Syria was unlikely to respond. Mr. Assad “has his own problems,” the official noted. “He doesn’t need Israel in the mess.”

¶ In Washington, the reported Israeli attacks stoked debate about whether American-led airstrikes were the logical next step to cripple the ability of the Syrian president to counter the rebel forces or use chemical weapons. That was already being discussed in secret by the United States, Britain and France in the days leading to the Israeli strikes, according to American and foreign officials involved in the discussions, with a model being the opening days of the attacks on Libya that ultimately drove Col. Muammar el-Qaddafi from power.

¶ Lawmakers from both parties urged President Obama to move toward arming the rebels. “The idea of getting weapons in — if we know the right people to get them — my guess is we will give them to them,” Senator Patrick J. Leahy, Democrat of Vermont, said on NBC’s “Meet the Press.”

¶ The White House declined to say whether it believed Israel was responsible for the Damascus explosions, though other American officials said there was no plausible alternative, given the size and precision of the strikes. Josh Earnest, the deputy press secretary, echoed statements by Mr. Obama last week, saying “the Israelis are justifiably concerned about the threat posed by Hezbollah obtaining these advanced weapon systems.”

¶ The Syrian deputy foreign minister, speaking on CNN, called the strikes “an act of war.” But the decision to blame Israel so publicly presented Mr. Assad with a difficult choice. He could retaliate against Israel and risk conflict with the region’s strongest military — an option analysts called unlikely. Or he could refrain, in which case he risks appearing further weakened and hypocritical to supporters and opponents alike, many of whom are united in their antipathy for Israel.

¶ “Why does the regime attack the rebels with Scuds and warplanes while it takes no action on the Israeli raids?” Basil, 35, who lives near the military research center, in Jamraya, asked as he and his wife swept broken glass from their house on Monday.

¶ Noureddin, 50, a lawyer, lives in the Doumar Project neighborhood, where the blasts knocked kitchen crockery from shelves and drove residents into basements for shelter. Noureddin said the attack would anger members of Mr. Assad’s Alawite sect, who make up the bulk of the military elite and his strongest base of support, already frustrated with their mounting death toll.

¶ “Today, President Bashar al-Assad is in a very hard position with his Alawite community,” he said. In a play on Mr. Assad’s surname, which means lion in Arabic, he added, “Today, Israel kills the Alawite soldiers who are protecting the lion’s den.”

¶ The airstrikes shocked residents of Damascus, a relative bubble of security, literally shaking some out of bed. It was a display of firepower far greater than any seen near the capital in two years of war.

¶ At the military’s Tishreen Hospital on Monday, a doctor said that there were at least 100 dead soldiers and many dozens more wounded.

¶ While much of the region debated the military and political impact, Damascus felt like a city on high alert.

¶ Hassan Husseini, 41, said that at 4 a.m., two hours after the blasts, he drove a friend home from his house in Malki, at the foot of Mount Qasioun, where in safer times Mr. Assad lived in an apartment with his family. Mr. Husseini said he was still reeling from the blasts: “The walls were moving, and the ground was trembling under us.”

¶ Soldiers at the city’s ubiquitous checkpoints inspected his car unusually carefully, he said.

¶ “There was tension,” he said. “You could sense the alertness in the houses and among people; everybody was awake.”

¶ Mr. Husseini saw people clustered at windows and on balconies. “Some lights were on,” he said, “but even when they were off I saw them moving behind windows like ghosts.”

¶ The military impact, though, was less clear.

¶ Within hours, the rebel Damascus Military Council declared that it would try to capitalize. The council issued a statement calling on all fighters in the area to work together, put aside rivalries and mount focused attacks on government forces.

¶ But Louay Mekdad, a spokesman for the Supreme Military Council, considered Washington’s best option for a military ally among the rebels, said the strike by itself would not present an opportunity to tip the balance.

¶ The elite Republican Guard units that the Syrian official said had been hit are currently believed to have little involvement in the fighting against Syria’s rebels, though they are a last-resort line of defense.

¶ “Does this erode the regime’s long-term capability? Undoubtedly,” said Emile Hokayem, an analyst with the International Institute for Strategic Studies. “Does this create a short-term opportunity for the opposition? It’s doubtful.”

¶ The Syrian military official said he believed that Israel and the rebels had collaborated in a plan for opposition forces to advance after the strikes hit elite forces in one of the few areas on the outskirts of Damascus where rebels have made few inroads. But Israeli analysts suggested that any deaths of Republican Guards, who were guarding weapons stockpiles, were probably incidental.

¶ Some analysts said Israel may have been sending a message to its main rival, Iran, that despite recent gains by Mr. Assad’s forces, the alliance between Iran, Syria and Hezbollah has waning power to check Israeli action.

¶ Syrian state television said the explosions confirmed what the government has been contending all along: that the rebels are part of an American-Israeli conspiracy to target Mr. Assad for his support of Palestinians and opposition to Western policies in the Middle East.

¶ But a longstanding refrain among fighters and activists has been that Mr. Assad’s anti-Israel stance was a sham. They say that while the government’s security forces and military failed to prevent the Israeli strikes — and for that matter have not clashed with Israel since 1973 — they have killed tens of thousands of Syrians and jailed many more to hold on to power.

¶ Some rebels and activists say they consider Mr. Assad a far higher-priority target than Israel, though they still oppose it. The main exile Syrian opposition coalition walked that line carefully in a statement issued after the bombings, blaming the government for allowing attacks by “external occupying forces.”

¶ Also, as the conflict takes on an increasingly sectarian cast, some rebel fighters say that for the Sunni-dominated rebellion, the greatest enemy is not Israel but Shiite-dominated Iran and Hezbollah, as well as the Alawite sect, an offshoot of Shiism.

¶ Mr. Mekdad of the Supreme Military Council said that the opposition had only one target: Mr. Assad’s government.

¶ “The Assad regime has never focused on fighting the Israeli Army; it’s focus has only been on oppressing the Syrian people,” he said. “From the start our goal has been to topple the regime, and we will continue.”

¶

Contemplating Syria, Hezbollah retaliation on Israel | JPost | Israel News.