Archive for May 6, 2013

‘Iran staying clear of Israel’s red line’

May 6, 2013

‘Iran staying clear of Israel’s red line’ | JPost | Israel News.

By REUTERS
05/06/2013 18:39
Diplomat says Iran conversion of uranium gas for non-military purposes is Iranian move to ease concern of int’l community.

Iran's Ahmadinejad at Tehran laser conference.

Iran’s Ahmadinejad at Tehran laser conference. Photo: REUTERS/Raheb Homavandi

VIENNA – Iran appears to be pressing ahead in using some of its most sensitive nuclear material to make reactor fuel, diplomats said on Monday, a step that could help buy time for diplomacy between Tehran and world powers.

Iran’s possession of medium-enriched uranium gas is closely watched in the West as Israel, which has threatened to attack its arch-foe if diplomacy fails to stop its nuclear drive, says it must not amass enough for one bomb if further processed.

Since Iran in 2010 began refining uranium to a fissile concentration of 20 percent – a relatively short technical step away from the level required for nuclear arms – it has produced more than the 240-250 kg which would be needed for one weapon.

But while the stockpile has expanded, Iran has still kept it below the Israeli “red line” by converting part of the uranium gas into oxide powder in order, Tehran says, to yield fuel for a medical research reactor in the Iranian capital.

Three diplomats said they believed Iran had continued this activity – thereby slowing the growth of the amount of 20 percent uranium gas – since the UN atomic agency issued its last report on Tehran’s nuclear program in February.

“Our impression is that it is fairly steady what they are doing,” one Western official said. Another envoy said: “I think they are trying to demonstrate that their conversion is a significant amount, an amount that (Iran believes) should ease the concern of the international community.”

If this is confirmed in the next report on Iran by the UN International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), expected in late May, the increase in the holding of 20 percent gas will be less than the production, which has amounted to about 15 kg per month.

In February, the stockpile stood at some 167 kg.

WEST WANTS MORE

Critics say Iran is trying to achieve the ability to make atomic bombs. The Islamic Republic denies this, saying says it needs nuclear power for energy generation and medical purposes.

But while the uranium conversion activity may postpone any decision by Israel on whether to strike Iranian nuclear sites, the diplomats made clear Tehran must do much more in order to allay Western suspicions about its atomic program.

“Simply converting is not enough,” one of them said.

Turning uranium gas into oxide powder in order to make fuel plates for the Tehran research reactor may be just a temporary positive development because the process could be reversible, Western experts say.

Iran could reconvert its entire inventory of 20 percent enriched oxide powder into gas “in a matter of a few weeks,” said Mark Hibbs of the Carnegie Endowment think-tank.

“Reconversion is not hard,” said Mark Fitzpatrick of the International Institute for Strategic Studies think-tank.

“Once the initial hiccups are overcome, the chemical process is straightforward.”

But Iran’s uranium oxide powder, like its other nuclear material, would be under IAEA safeguards and its inspectors would notice if it was being transformed back into gas form, unless it was done at a secret facility, experts say.

Were Iran to inform the IAEA that it intended to reconvert the material into gas form, “that step would immediately precipitate a crisis,” Hibbs said.

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has said Iran was “continuing to get closer to the red line”.

The six world powers involved in diplomacy with Iran want it to stop enriching uranium to 20 percent and suspend work at the underground Fordow site where most of this activity is pursued.

In their last meeting in early April, Iran refused the powers’ demand. The two sides’ chief negotiators will meet again on May 15 in Istanbul.

Netanyahu discusses Syria with Putin over the phone

May 6, 2013

Netanyahu discusses Syria with Putin over the phone – Israel News, Ynetnews.

Published: 05.06.13, 17:01 / Israel News

Russian President Vladimir Putin spoke on the telephone with Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu in the wake of the Sunday airstrike at a Syrian military facility, allegedly carried out by Israeli warplanes, and the tense security situation in the region.

A Kremlin spokesperson said the leaders discussed Mideast security, above all Syria. (AFP)

Israel strikes a blow to conventional Arab thinking

May 6, 2013

Israel strikes a blow to conventional Arab thinking | The Times of Israel.

‘Israel is still my enemy, but when my enemy does a neat job — I admit it,’ writes one Syrian commentator

May 6, 2013, 5:56 pm
Anti-Assad protesters hold up a caricature placard representing Iranian supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, right, and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, left, during a demonstration at Kfar Nebel near Idlib, Friday, Nov. 30, 2012 (photo credit: AP/ENN)

The alleged Israeli strikes on Hezbollah weapons stashes in Syria over the weekend have left Arab observers baffled; for while many have been hoping — secretly or publicly — for a decisive military strike against President Bashar Assad, few expected or indeed wished for it to come from Israel.

Until Saturday night’s strike on two military targets near Damascus, conventional wisdom within the Syrian opposition was that Israel secretly supported Assad and was preventing his ouster. A Syrian Muslim Brotherhood official told The Times of Israel last year that Israel was pressuring the US and Russia to prop up Assad. A refugee from Daraa living in Jordan argued that Israel wanted Assad in power, because losing him would mean losing the Golan Heights, captured in 1967, and destabilizing Israel’s quietest border.

Reports to the contrary did little to change this impression. It was Israel which is said to have struck a nuclear facility under construction near the northeastern city of Deir Ezzor in 2007 and, more recently, Israel reportedly killed an Iranian general en route to Lebanon on Syrian soil. Israel never officially claimed responsibility for those strikes, but former Israeli defense minister Ehud Barak told CNN as early as May 2012 that Assad’s fall would help Israel by weakening Iran and Hezbollah. Such facts never seem to confuse the skeptics, however.

As the quintessential enemy of the Arab and Islamic world, Israel must be aligned with Assad, went the logic of many domestic Assad opponents. Israel’s brazen confrontation with the Assad regime — while many Arab leaders have spent the last two years verbally endorsing (or secretly dreaming) of such a move — has created something of a cognitive dissonance for these oppositionists.

‘[Israel] retaliated against the massacres in Baydha and Baniyas immediately. Where is your retaliation, Arabs?’

Different observers have dealt with this conundrum in different ways. Die-hard Israel critics like Abdel Bari Atwan, editor-in-chief of leading Arab daily Al-Quds Al-Arabi, pounced at the opportunity to condemn Israel for its most recent “provocative” attack.

“If the Israeli missile strikes against Syria are not a declaration of war, flagrant aggression, and a violation of state sovereignty … what is war, then?” wrote Atwan in an op-ed Monday, echoing the reaction of Syria’s deputy foreign minister, Faisal Mekdad.

“The aggression against Syria is aggression against Syria and its people, not against the regime,” wrote Palestinian activist Abir Kopty on her Twitter page. “Even if it were aggression against the regime, it should not [come from] Israel, America or their Arab collaborators!”

But on the ground in Syria, attitudes may be changing.

“I don’t like Israel, there’s no question about that,” wrote one Damascus-based Twitter commentator who defines himself as “a devoted yogi, pianist, dancer and optimist. But right now, all I do is fight for a free Syria.”

“It is still my enemy, no argument. But when an enemy does a neat job, I admit it.”

A blogger from Homs who goes by the name of Kendeeel reported that his friend from Baniyas — a coastal city that experienced a regime-led massacre over the weekend — jokingly told him that Israel has more honor than Arab states (Arabic-language link).

“[Israel] retaliated against the massacres in Baydha and Baniyas immediately. Where is your retaliation, Arabs?” wrote Kendeeel on May 5, in a comment that was retweeted 107 times.

Yasser Al-Zaiat, a Damascus native studying sociology in Beirut, shared his inner distress following the Israeli strike.

“I’m sorry, but I can’t make up my mind between the Syrian army and the Israeli. The latter never harmed me, but the Arab inside me hates it; whereas everything inside me hates the former,” Al-Zaiat tweeted (Arabic-langage link).

No official Syrian movement would openly praise Israel for its strike against Assad’s military targets on Monday. The more prevalent attitude was to challenge the government to retaliate against the Zionist state, mockingly the ineptitude of a regime that prides itself on standing at the forefront of Arab resistance to Israel.

Benedetta Berti, an expert on Syria at Tel Aviv University’s Institute for National Strategic Studies, said that, politically speaking, Israeli attacks on Syria are more of a liability than an an asset for the anti-Assad opposition.

“This is very tricky for the opposition, since it clearly gives the Assad regime political ammunition to claim the rebels are collaborating with Israel,” Berti said in an interview. “The best they can do is stand back and condemn the attacks as a violation of Syrian sovereignty.”

But that may change too. Some pro-opposition organizations said foreign intervention at this stage was imperative, irrespective of its source.

“I think we all wish the conflict would have remained contained within Syria without becoming more of an international threat necessitating military intervention,” wrote Dan Layman of the Syrian Support Group, a US-based pro-opposition organization, in an email correspondence.

“But unfortunately the reality on the ground has not afforded us that luxury. So we’re of course thankful that those particular threats were neutralized.”

Syrian official: We won’t respond immediately to Israeli ‘aggression’

May 6, 2013

Syrian official: We won’t respond immediately to Israeli ‘aggression’ – Israel News, Ynetnews.

( Even their benighted “brothers in arms” will have trouble swallowing this ass-covering nonsense.  – JW )

Senior Syrian official says Syria ‘will respond to Israeli aggression’ when it chooses. Hezbollah ‘prepared to respond to any aggression’

Roi Kais and AFP

Published: 05.06.13, 17:03 / Israel News

Damascus will respond to Israeli attacks against targets on its territory, but will “choose the moment” and may not do so immediately, a Syrian political official said on Monday.

Syria will respond to the Israeli aggression and will choose the moment to do so,” the official close to the regime, who was speaking from Damascus, told AFP in Beirut.

“It might not be immediate because Israel now is on high alert,” he added. “We will wait but we will answer.”

Meanwhile, the deputy head of Hezbollah‘s Executive Council, Sheikh Nabil Qaouk, launched a threat towards Israel during an event in southern Lebanon. “We say to those who rely on the weakness and attrition of the resistance using Syria that the Lebanese resistance’s decision is to be prepared and respond to any Israeli aggression.” According to him, “the Israeli attacks on the outskirts of Damascus indicate the war on Syria’s targets are linked to the resistance and whoever fights Syria and its regime serves Israeli goals.”

Lebanese media published Monday that certain circles within Hezbollah say that there is a need to wait before setting any position beyond condemnation. “The situation is sensitive and there cannot be any quick steps against the aggression due to the sensitivity of the matter, and since a response is related to contacts and consultations between Syria, Iran, Hezbollah and Russia,” one Hezbollah operative said, adding that “any decision will affect everyone.”

Site of alleged Israeli  strike near Damascus (Photo: EPA)
Site of alleged Israeli strike near Damascus (Photo: EPA)

At the same time, China and Russia sharply criticized on Monday the alleged Israeli airstrikes. While Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is on an official visit to Beijing, the Chinese Foreign Ministry said that China opposes the use of force. The Chinese Foreign Ministry also added that restraint should be maintained and Syria’s sovereignty respected.

“We oppose the use of military force and believe any country’s sovereignty should be respected,” said Chinese Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Hua Chunying. “China calls on all relevant parties to begin from the basis of protecting regional peace and stability, maintain restraint, and avoid taking any actions that would escalate tensions.”

Russia also released a statement in which it expressed “serious concern” over the alleged Israeli strikes in Syria, and the increasing chances of international military intervention in the Syrian civil war. In a statement by the Russian Foreign Ministry it was said that Moscow is certain that the attack could lead to an escalation in the region: “We are trying to identify and examine the circumstances regarding the Israeli attacks on May 4 and 5 on the outskirts of Damascus.”

In contrast, German Foreign Minister Guido Westerwelle warned of the possibility of weapons reaching Syrian rebels connected to Al-Qaeda, saying it would risk regional democracies like Turkey and Israel. Westerwelle, who is in Budapest for the World Jewish Congress, added that if the weapons reach “the wrong hands, Damascus will only be a stop on the way to Jerusalem.”

Reported Israeli airstrikes in Syria could accelerate U.S. decision process – The Washington Post

May 6, 2013

Reported Israeli airstrikes in Syria could accelerate U.S. decision process – The Washington Post.

Syrian Arab News Agency/Via Reuters – Damage is seen in a purported ammunition depot following an airstrike near Damascus on Sunday, in this photo distributed by Syria’s national news agency. Israel reportedly carried out its second airstrike in recent days on Syria early Sunday.

By , Monday, May 6, 12:46 AM

Israel’s reported airstrikes in Syria — and the threat of a retaliatory strike by the Syrian government — are likely to accelerate the decision-making of the Obama administration, which was already moving toward a sharp escalation of U.S. involvement in the two-year-old crisis.

Senior officials said the deployment of U.S. troops to Syria remains unlikely, but they have indicated that a decision will come within weeks on options ranging from the supply of weapons to the Syrian rebels to the use of U.S. aircraft and missiles to ground President Bashar al-Assad’s air power by destroying planes, runways and missile sites inside Syria.

Neither Israeli nor U.S. officials confirmed an attack Sunday morning that reportedly hit a weapons shipment in Syria — including sophisticated missiles and air defense equipment — about to be transferred to Lebanon-based Hezbollah.

But President Obama, in an interview broadcast just hours later Sunday, said Israel is justified in preventing the provision of weapons to Hezbollah.

“We coordinate very closely with the Israelis, recognizing that . . . they are very close to Syria, they’re very close to Lebanon,” Obama said in the interview, recorded Saturday with the Spanish-language Telemundo, after an earlier Israeli attack reported late Friday.

Throughout the Syrian crisis, the administration has repeatedly voiced the belief that Syria is already awash in weapons and that sending more will not tip the balance in favor of the rebels.

Now, in part because of growing confidence in the rebel Free Syrian Army, “the national security team and the diplomatic team around the president” favor increased involvement, and their views are gaining momentum despite the caution expressed by Obama’s political advisers, according to a senior Western official whose government has closely coordinated its Syria policy with Washington and who spoke before the reported Israeli strikes. The official discussed sensitive diplomatic assessments on the condition of anonymity.

Even U.S. lawmakers who have expressed reservations about stepped-up U.S. involvement appeared to now see it as inevitable.

“If we are going to arm the rebels, we have to make sure those arms are not going to end up in the possession of al-Qaeda supporters,” Rep. Peter T. King (R-N.Y.) said on CNN’s “State of the Union.”

Sen. Patrick J. Leahy (D-Vt.) expressed similar concern but said he believes that Obama is moving toward action. “The idea of getting weapons in — if we know the right people to get them — my guess is we will give them to them,” Leahy said on NBC’s “Meet the Press.”

Rep. C.A. Dutch Ruppersberger (Md.), the senior Democrat on the House Intelligence Committee, urged that action be taken only with other partners. “We can’t be the sheriff to the whole world,” he said. “We have our own issues right now — Iraq, Afghanistan, we have sequestration, those type of issues. So when we make the move to get in, we have to do it with a coalition.”

The apparent Israeli strikes — following reports in recent weeks that Assad’s forces probably deployed chemical weapons in unknown quantities — appeared to bolster the case of those who have long favored direct U.S. support for the rebels.

“We need to have a game-changing action,” said Sen. John McCain (R-Ariz.). “And that is no American boots on the ground, establish a safe zone, and to protect it and to supply weapons to the right people in Syria who are fighting for, obviously, the things we believe in.”

The impunity with which the Israelis apparently struck targets in Damascus, McCain said on “Fox News Sunday,” undercut the argument of the U.S. military that Syrian air defenses would pose a formidable impediment to imposition of a no-fly zone over rebel-held areas of Syria.

“The Israelis seem to be able to penetrate it rather easily,” Mc­Cain said. The “red line” Obama drew, promising consequences for Assad if he used chemical weapons, “was apparently written in disappearing ink,” he said.

After Sunday’s strikes, U.N. Secretary General Ban Ki-moon expressed “grave concern” and called on “all sides to exercise maximum calm and restraint, and to act with a sense of responsibility to prevent an escalation of what is already a devastating and highly dangerous conflict,” according to Ban’s spokesman in New York.

The administration has long exercised caution out of fears that U.S. involvement could worsen the situation. But Obama’s reservations have been challenged by U.S. allies and partners who have urged the United States to take more of a leadership role over their disparate efforts to help the Syrian opposition. At the same time, U.S. confidence has been growing in the cohesiveness of the Free Syrian Army led by Gen. Salim Idris.

Idris, who met with Secretary of State John F. Kerry in Istanbul two weeks ago, pledged that no U.S.-supplied arms would go to Islamist extremist groups fighting for the same cause as the U.S.-backed rebels and said that all weapons would be carefully supervised and returned to donors at the end of the conflict.

Kerry will travel this week to Moscow to appeal to President Vladimir Putin to drop his support of Assad and join an international effort to prevent the spread of chemical weapons and stop the Syrian bloodshed. But senior administration officials, speaking on the condition of anonymity about those upcoming talks, expressed little optimism that those efforts would succeed.

Sean Sullivan contributed to this report.

© The Washington Post Company

LIVE BLOG: Aftermath of weekend airstrikes in Syria

May 6, 2013

LIVE BLOG: Aftermath of weekend airstrikes in Syria – Diplomacy & Defense – Israel News | Haaretz Daily Newspaper.

LIVE BLOG

6:32 P.M. Israel launches complaint with United Nations Disengagement Observer Force (UNDOF) over mortar shells fired from Syria. (Haaretz)

5:51 P.M. Two mortar shells land in Golan Heights near border fence, in an apparent errant launch from Syria. No casualties reported. (Haaretz)

5:29 P.M.  The IDF has decided to significantly reduce the scope of an exercise planned this week for the Lebanese border in order to decrease regional tensions. The exercise, run by the Northern Command, will feature less traffic of military vehicles on northern roads.

5:03 P.M. Haifa airport reopens after day of closure due to security situation with Syria. Commercial flights to resume on Tuesday. (Haaretz)

4:39 P.M. Turkey launches a 10-day military exercise at Incirlik, a NATO air base near the border with Syria in the Adana province, where U.S. troops are also stationed. The exercise will test the military’s readiness for battle and coordination with government ministries, the general staff said in a statement. (Reuters).

4:32 P.M. Anti-regime activists say Israel’s weekend air strike on the military complex near Damascus killed at least 42 Syrian soldiers, citing information from military hospitals. The Syrian government has not released a death toll, but Syrian state media have reported casualties in Sunday’s pre-dawn airstrike. (AP)

3:29 P.M. Syrian rebels denied they were using chemical weapons, after a UN investigator said there were suspicions based upon interviews with victims that rebel forces have used the nerve agent sarin. “We do not have sarin gas and we do not aim to bring it under our control,” Luai al-Mekdad, spokesman for the Free Syrian Army said. (DPA)

2:40 P.M. The International Committee of the Red Cross (ICRC) urged both sides in Syria’s civil war on Monday to allow swift evacuation of the dead and wounded, many of them civilians, who often lie abandoned for days or months in intense
urban fighting.

The ICRC reminded the government and the rebels that international humanitarian law requires bodies to be removed promptly and respectfully, and the injured to be evacuated for treatment.(Reuters)

12:32 P.M. Russia said on Monday it was concerned the chances of foreign military intervention in Syria were growing following reports of Israeli airstrikes around Damascus which were a source of “particular alarm”. “We are seriously concerned by the signs of preparation of global public opinion for possible armed intervention in the long-running internal conflict in Syria,” Russian Foreign Ministry spokesman Alexander Lukashevich said in a statement. (Reuters)

12:04 A.M. China issues veiled criticism of Israel over military strike in Syria as Netanyahu begins a five-day visit in the country. “We oppose the use of military force and believe any country’s sovereignty should be respected,” Chinese Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Hua Chunying told a regular briefing. “China also calls on all relevant parties to begin from the basis of protecting regional peace and stability, maintain restraint and avoid taking any actions that would escalate tensions and jointly safeguard regional peace and stability,” Hua said. (Reuters)

11:30 A.M. Northern Command chief Maj. Gen. Yair Golan says there is no fear of war breaking out in Syria. Golan, who spoke during a Golani Brigade event, said that “it is always right to prepare and train, but there are no winds of war” along Israel’s northern border. (Haaretz)

9:01 A.M. Rebels claim to have shot down an army helicopter in eastern Syria. (Reuters)

Netanyahu visits China as planned, following two strikes in Syria over the weekend; U.S. received no early warning of attacks, American officials say; IDF Northern Command chief says war unlikely.

By | May.06, 2013 | 2:48 PM
Syria strike

In this photo released by the Syrian official news agency SANA, damaged buildings wrecked by an Israeli airstrike are seen in Damascus, Syria, Sunday, May 5, 2013. Photo by AP

Despite the tension along Israel’s northern border following two reported strikes in Syria over the weekend, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu left on Sunday as planned for a five-day tour in China, in effort to send a calming message to Syrian President Bashar Assad.

Without confirming foreign reports saying Israel was behind both attacks, on Friday and Sunday, American officials said Monday morning that the U.S. received no early warning of the strikes. The New York Times quoted a Syrian official who claimed that the strike hit an elite military unit. A Syrian doctor told the paper that at least 100 soldiers were killed in the attack.

According to Sunday’s reports, the targets of both strikes were shipments of Iranian Fateh-100 missile en route to Lebanon’s Hezbollah. These missiles are said to be extremely accurate, with a range of up to 300 kilometers. One of the targets in Sunday’s attack was a site in Jamariyz, which was also hit in January.

Following the reports of a second strike, tensions increased along Israel’s northern border. Though Israeli authorities refused to comment on the attacks, the Israel Defense Forces deployed two Iron Dome batteries along the Lebanon border and the northern skies were closed to civilian flights.

Syrian Observatory: 42 soldiers killed in Israel strike

May 6, 2013

Syrian Observatory: 42 soldiers killed in Israel strike | JPost | Israel News.

Opposition group says at least 42 soldiers killed in alleged IAF strikes in Damascus, more than 100 still missing; NYT quotes doctor at Syrian military hospital as saying at least 100 soldiers killed, dozens wounded.

People search for survivors in the rubble in a damaged area in Syria

People search for survivors in the rubble in a damaged area in Syria Photo: REUTERS/Aref Hretani

At least 42 soldiers were killed in Sunday’s alleged Israeli strike in Syria, The Syrian Observatory for Human Rights, an opposition group, told AFP on Monday.

“At least 42 soldiers were killed in the strikes, and another 100 who would usually be at the targeted sites remain unaccounted for,” Observatory director Rami Abdel Rahman said.

Earlier Monday, a high-ranking Syrian military source was quoted by the New York Times as saying that dozens of elite Republican Guard troops stationed by Syrian President Bashar Assad’s palace in Damascus were killed in the strike.

The paper also quoted a doctor at the Syrian military’s Tishreen Hospital as saying there were at least 100 dead soldiers and many dozens more wounded.

Israel has not commented on two airstrikes early Sunday morning and early Friday, that allegedly targeted Iranian weapons destined for the Lebanese militant group Hezbollah.

Syrian President Assad on Monday threatened retaliation without warning to any further attack on his country, Kuwait daily Alrai reported.

Assad reportedly notified Washington via Moscow that orders had been given to allow deployed ground-to-ground and ground-to-air missile batteries to be used against Israel without advance notice in the event of another attack.

Israel taking a necessary risk

May 6, 2013

Israel Hayom | Israel taking a necessary risk.

Dan Margalit

The West is using Israel as a mercenary to undermine Assad’s regime, and to that end it is willing to back the IAF’s operations.”

Israel’s need to employ the long reach of its air force to stop Iranian weapons in Syria from reaching Hezbollah stems from the U.N. Security Council resolution that ended the Second Lebanon War in 2006, from which Israel emerged without reaching its operational goals and with a sense of defeat.

Israel agreed to end the war without a clear decision on who won the upper hand, making do with a U.N. resolution barring the transfer of weapons from Syria to Lebanon. But then-Prime Minister Ehud Olmert’s government was too weak to impose the weapons’ ban, and Syrian President Bashar al-Assad and Hezbollah Secretary-General Hassan Nasrallah were mocking Olmert in broad daylight.

The arms shipments making their way to Lebanon now are the product of that government’s lack of resolve and as a result, Israel was late to define which weapons convoys would not be allowed to reach their destinations.

Short-term and short-tempered policies have created a convenient national — and almost international — consensus regarding the IDF’s need, according to foreign media reports, to strike the Hezbollah-Tehran axis on sovereign Lebanese soil; making it reluctantly choose a side in the civil war waging on the outskirts of Damascus.

The wisdom and necessity of the Israeli strike are indisputable. The West is using Israel as a mercenary to undermine Assad’s regime, and to that end it is willing to back the IAF’s operations.

Israel, however, needs to look beyond this immediate move and consider several factors: even if Assad opts not to retaliate over a strike on Iranian weapons held in Hezbollah bases on his soil, there is still the risk of a direct, violent confrontation with Tehran. According to Channel 2, a source close to the Iranian regime has already threatened retribution against Israel, advising it to “take it” and refrain from retaliating to avoid further escalation that could result in a regional war.

Nevertheless, Iran has to understand that Israel has made it clear over the past few years exactly where it draws its red line and what its casus belli is, even if at time it did not live up to its own statements. This time the government has to set a bar, minimal as it may be, and not go below it. It may raise the threat of a prolonged confrontation, but there is no other choice.

Israel has no interest in interfering in the Syrian civil war, nor does it wish to become a party to the ongoing fighting, as the rebels are no better for Israel than Assad. So when Iran sends a delegate to Damascus to review the situation, Assad, who is now overwhelmed by the burden of war, should tell him that if Tehran wishes to facilitate his survival, it should release him from his duties as the Lebanese terror group’s weapons supplier.

Next strike not far off

May 6, 2013

Israel Hayom | Next strike not far off.

Yoav Limor

The airstrikes on long-range missiles in Syria on Thursday night and Sunday morning, which reportedly were conducted by Israel, have left many unanswered questions on both sides of the border. In Syria and Lebanon, people are probably wondering how far Israel will go and whether more airstrikes are imminent. At the same time, people in Israel are wondering how many hits Syrian President Bashar Assad and Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah can take before they decide the time has come to respond.

As of Sunday night, it appeared that even the second airstrike, which was more significant than the first and included the targeting of three Fateh-110 missile storage sites, would not lead to an escalation. Despite the threats that were heard on Sunday, Israel doesn’t expect Syria or Hezbollah to respond. Assad fears Israel will topple his regime and Hezbollah is concerned about the erosion of its power at a time that isn’t convenient for it or its patrons in Tehran and Damascus.

Rather than planning a response, the Assad regime and Hezbollah probably spent Sunday internalizing the lessons they learned from the airstrikes. For the second time in 48 hours and the third time in three months, advanced weapons, in which millions of dollars had been invested, were destroyed as they were being covertly moved along the Iran-Syria-Lebanon axis. The Assad regime and Hezbollah are likely struggling to figure out what else Israel knows and when the next airstrike will take place.

The next airstrike probably won’t happen in the coming days. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s trip to China represents a “business as usual” attitude, at least for the next several days. History shows that it isn’t customary to start a war when the prime minister is abroad, especially during a trip of great importance, such as Netanyahu’s to China. But still, one has to wonder what will happen if Israel receives intelligence information in the next few days that weapons are about to be transferred from Syria to Lebanon.

It stands to reason that Israel would launch another attack if it received such information, but Israel knows that every airstrike brings Syria and Hezbollah closer to a decision to respond. For now, the main concern is about an attack on an Israeli embassy overseas. But the deployment of Iron Dome batteries in Haifa and Safed indicates that Israel is preparing for a wide range of possibilities, including a direct response at home. The tension will likely continue for several days before dissipating. But even once the story is out of the headlines, the shadow war will continue, with intelligence being gathered for the next airstrike, which, given the current situation in the region, shouldn’t be too far off.

The West does not really want to intervene

May 6, 2013

Israel Hayom | The West does not really want to intervene.

Dr. Ronen Yitzhak

In a December 4 speech at the National Defense University at Fort McNair, Obama said “I want to make it absolutely clear to Assad and those under his command, the world is watching. The use of chemical weapons is and would be totally unacceptable. And if you make the tragic mistake of using these weapons, there will be consequences and you will be held accountable.”

Damascus received warnings from other European leaders as well. British Prime Minister David Cameron warned of a military option should Assad cross the red line and French president Francois Hollande declared unequivocally that “the international community will not stand idly by.”

These leaders’ warnings were prompted by American intelligence reports, released at the end of 2012, saying that the Syrian military was preparing for the possible use of sarin nerve gas against the rebels. According to intelligence gathered by the West, chemical weapons had been loaded onto shells that were meant to be fired at civilian population centers as part of the Syrian regime’s battle against the rebels, a battle that has lasted for over two years.

On several occasions the rebels claimed the Syrian military was using chemical weapons against them, but those reports could not be verified and were therefore interpreted as an attempt by the rebels to pressure the international community to intervene on their behalf and topple the regime.

By the end of March 2013, evidence that the Syrian regime had used sarin gas against its opposition had grown stronger. Victims’ testimony was published, as were photos of bodily injury to rebels. British labs confirmed that soil samples taken from areas reported to have been bombarded with chemical weapons were indeed contaminated. The soil samples had been smuggled from near Damascus in late March in a secret and daring operation by the agents of the British MI6 Secret Intelligence Service operating in Syria.

That is why it is clear that even before Gen. Itai Baron, head of the research division at IDF Military Intelligence, confirmed publicly that chemical weapons were being used in Syria, Western intelligence, including the Americans, already knew about it. The timing of the report surprised them — but its content did not.

The Americans attempted evasion, even though they already possessed this information. President Obama declared last week that “we now have evidence that chemical weapons have been used inside Syria,” but “we don’t know who used them. We don’t have a chain of custody.”

This shows that the United States, along with other Western leaders, are not interested in military intervention in Syria to topple Assad.

This is Obama’s moment of truth. The lack of an appropriate military response in Syria will prove to the world, and especially to Iran, that his threats hold no weight. The conclusion is obvious: In the long run, Israel will not be able to rely on Western threats against Iran’s nuclear program, because when push comes to shove they could turn out to be empty threats.

The West will not agree with Israel’s red line, and will have a hard time admitting it was ever crossed. It will seek compromises and dither — past the stage when it is possible to act militarily.

The writer is head of the Middle East Studies department at Western Galilee College.