Archive for May 2013

‘PM threatened to hit S-300s before they come online’

May 31, 2013

‘PM threatened to hit S-300s before they come online’ | The Times of Israel.

( This story has already passed the black humor stage and is bordering on farce. – JW )

In meeting with Netanyahu, Putin reportedly suggested Israel buy the anti-aircraft missiles to keep them out of Assad’s hands

May 31, 2013, 5:51 pm
Russian President Vladimir Putin, right, listens to Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu during their meeting at the Bocharov Ruchei residence in the Black Sea resort of Sochi, Russia, Tuesday, May 14, 2013. (photo credit: AP/ Maxim Shipenkov)

Russian President Vladimir Putin, right, listens to Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu during their meeting at the Bocharov Ruchei residence in the Black Sea resort of Sochi, Russia, Tuesday, May 14, 2013. (photo credit: AP/ Maxim Shipenkov)

Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu hinted during his recent meeting with Russian President Vladimir Putin that Israel would destroy Syrian S-300 missiles before they became fully operational, Maariv cited Middle Eastern diplomats saying Friday.

According to the report, during the meeting between the heads of state earlier this month in the Black Sea city of Sochi, Netanyahu called on Putin to halt Russia’s transfer of the sophisticated anti-aircraft system to Syrian President Bashar Assad, and suggested that, should the deal go through, Israel would strike the missiles before they became operational.

The report came the same day that American and German officials warned Russia not to send Assad the S-300 anti-aircraft missiles.

Officials present at the meeting “were shocked by the audacity Netanyahu displayed before a leader of a global power,” the paper reported.

Putin reportedly guaranteed that Assad wouldn’t transfer the S-300s to a third party, such as Hezbollah, and that should Israel strike such an arms convoy, Russia didn’t believe Syria would retaliate. Despite this, Netanyahu reportedly expressed concern over the deal in and of itself.

The Russian president was said to respond to Netanyahu saying that the deal had to go through, but hinted that Israel could prevent the transfer if it, or another entity, bought the missiles instead or “offered an alternative,” according to Maariv.

Israeli media had earlier reported that Netanyahu warned Putin of a descent into war should Russia make the delivery. Netanyahu said that if acquired by Assad, the S-300 “is likely to draw us into a response, and could send the region deteriorating into war,” Channel 2 reported.

Russia has not yet delivered advanced S-300 missiles to Syria, despite rather vague Syrian indications to the contrary, two Russian media outlets reported on Friday.

The Russian business daily Vedomosti said that it was unclear whether or not the air-defense systems would be delivered this year, while the daily Kommersant reported that the S-300 missiles would only be delivered in the second quarter of 2014. According to Kommersant, the systems would need another six months of testing and training before they become operational.

The Lebanese newspaper al-Diyar reported Friday that Israel had succeeded in thwarting the missile deal by threatening to start an all-out war should Russia deliver the S-300s to the embattled Bashar Assad regime.

The report also claimed that Russian President Vladimir Putin offered to compensate Assad with the delivery of other “effective and powerful weapons,” including modern aircraft and helicopters, to use against the Syrian rebels. According to al-Diyar, Putin also passed a message to Assad saying that the entry of Hezbollah into the Syrian conflict was not helpful. Hezbollah has a reported 5,000-7,000 gunmen now fighting with Assad’s forces.

Israeli sources said Thursday that Syria has only paid for one-third of the S-300 contract. They added that, even if the deal is eventually honored, it would take months for the S-300 batteries to be operational.

“It is not clear to me that the Russians are interested in transferring the weapons. Right now, it’s more of a threat,” said Ehud Ya’ari, Channel 2′s veteran, well-connected commentator.

In remarks erroneously attributed to Assad on Thursday, the Syrian president was said to have boasted in a TV interview that his country had received a first S-300 shipment from Russia, and to have asserted that “the rest of the load will arrive soon.” Israeli officials immediately said he was lying and bluffing.

What Assad actually said in the interview, on Hezbollah’s al-Manar television broadcast Thursday night, was that Russia had fulfilled some of its weapons contracts recently, but he was vague on whether this included the advanced air-defense systems.

Russia’s declared intention to deliver the sophisticated systems, which can intercept fighter jets and cruise missiles, has created a tense standoff between Israel, Syria, and Russia, with Israel threatening to do “whatever it takes” to prevent the weapons being deployed, and Syria responding that it would retaliate in kind for any Israeli strike.

Aside from the unique strategic capacities that the S-300 air-defense missiles would afford Syria, putting planes taking off from central Israel and its main international airport within the missiles’ range, Jerusalem also fears that the system could fall into the hands of terror groups like Hezbollah.

Yoel Goldman and Stuart Winer contributed to this report.

The new America, a la Obama

May 31, 2013

Israel Hayom | The new America, a la Obama.

Continual war offers no hope, U.S. President Barack Obama said in a speech last week, presenting the Obama doctrine — the opposite of the Bush doctrine • The war on terror is over, the soldiers will come home, and even drone attacks will be scaled back.

Boaz Bismuth
U.S. President Barack Obama is mostly preoccupied with the legacy that he will leave

|

Photo credit: AFP

Analysis: Air strikes against the S-300? Not so fast

May 31, 2013

Analysis: Air strikes against the S-300? Not so fast | JPost | Israel News.

05/30/2013 23:04

It’s unclear what, if anything has arrived in Syria from Russia.

Russian S-300 anti-aircraft missile system

Russian S-300 anti-aircraft missile system Photo: REUTERS

The regime of Bashar Assad is not known for its credibility, having made many false or utterly distorted claims to suit its agenda.

Peddling falsehoods is a vital aspect of the regime’s survival strategy.

The Syrian president boasted on Thursday to Hezbollah’s Al-Manar TV station that the first shipment of the advanced Russian S-300 air defense system has arrived in his country, but the claim, like so many others from Syria, should be taken with a pinch of salt.

It suits Assad to take up a confrontational pose with Israel, without entering into an actual conflict with it (which could spell the end of his regime). This is why Assad on Thursday threatened Jerusalem with immediate retaliation for any future air strikes.

It remains unclear what, if anything has arrived in Syria from Russia, and whether the shipment contains S-300 interceptor missiles, or other basic components that need to be assembled before the system can be switched on.

As Yiftah Shapir, director of the Military Balance Project at the Institute for National Security Studies in Tel Aviv, recently noted, Syria would require considerable time before it could master the S- 300 air defense system. It needs to train Syrian personnel to use it. Russian technicians are unlikely to operate the batteries on behalf of Assad, as they’d be placing themselves at very high risk.

Nevertheless, Assad’s message contains a declaration of intent to eventually cross an Israeli red line on arms proliferation, and this is a serious development which has a real potential to spark a confrontation.

There are several reasons why Israel has no intention of allowing Syria to set up S-300 batteries.

With its sophisticated radars and range of 200 kilometers, the S-300 can target civilian air traffic in northern Israel, hamper Israel Air Force aircraft flying over the Galilee or the Golan Heights, and disrupt IAF surveillance flights over Lebanon to monitor Hezbollah.

The system can also disrupt Israeli efforts to intercept the transit of Iranian weapons to Hezbollah through Syria.

Finally, and perhaps most important, Assad might be tempted to send S-300 batteries to Hezbollah or Iran.

Despite being neck deep in the bloody Syrian war, Hezbollah continues to prepare itself for war with Israel, and obtaining the S-300 would boost its confidence to challenge the IAF.

A more confident Hezbollah might be tempted to resume cross-border attacks on Israel, which in turn could quickly drag the region to war.

The S-300 in Iranian hands will complicate what is already a very challenging potential mission: Striking Iran’s nuclear sites.

In light of these factors, when might Israel take action? Strikes might be ordered against components of the batteries in transit on Syrian soil. Alternatively, Israel might bide its time and attack just before the batteries go online.

It’s worth remembering that Israel possesses advanced electronic warfare capabilities. As one source from the IDF’s Electronic Warfare Section told The Jerusalem Post last month, “The government instructed us to prepare and know how to operate in every operational arena.”

Assad is surely aware that Israel won’t wait for the batteries to become operational, and may therefore choose not to cross that line at all.

Behind closed doors, it is safe to assume, diplomatic pressure is being applied on Moscow to refrain from taking a step that can further destabilize an explosive region.

Russia to sell at least 10 MiG fighters to Syria

May 31, 2013

Russia to sell at least 10 MiG fighters to Syria – Israel News, Ynetnews.

( If true, this is an obvious “booby prize” to make up for the withholding of the S-300’s.  F-15s, even flown by non-IAF pilots can take care of MIG 29s in short order. – JW )

Russian arms manufacturer director Sergei Korotkov says company signing contract to deliver MiG fighter jets to Syria. Meanwhile, Russian news organs refute Assad’s assertions he has already received shipment

News agencies

Latest Update: 05.31.13, 12:19 / Israel News

Russian arms manufacturer says it is signing a contract to deliver at least 10 fighter jets to Syria.

Sergei Korotkov, general director of the MiG company that makes the jets, told Russian news agencies Friday that a Syrian delegation was in Moscow to discuss terms and deadlines of a new contract supplying MiG-29 M/M2 fighters to Syria.

Korotkov did not say how many MiGs Syria were buying, but says it would be “more than 10.”

Earlier on Friday, it was reported that Russia may not deliver a hugely controversial consignment of S-300 air defense missile systems to the Syrian regime this year, according to two Russian newspapers.

The Vedomosti daily cited a Russian defense industry source as saying it was unclear if the weapons would be delivered to Syria this year while the Kommersant daily quoted its source as saying that delivery was only planned in the second quarter of 2014.

President Bashar Assad appeared to imply in an interview with Al-Manar television broadcast Thursday that Russia had already delivered some of the promised ground-to-air S-300 missile systems.

But both sources quoted by Kommersant and Vedomosti said that no delivery of the missiles had taken place yet. The contract was agreed in 2010 and according to Vedomosti is worth $1 billion.

Kommersant added that after delivery in 2014, a minimum of another six months would be needed for the training of personnel and tests before the systems were fully operational.

The source quoted by Vedomosti meanwhile said that while the Russian government is currently insisting in public that the contract will be fulfilled, this does not mean that the actual deliveries will ever take place.

No further details were given.

The widely-admired missile systems are seen by analysts as having huge military importance for Assad in the conflict against rebels as the weapons could be used to ward off Western or Israeli air strikes against regime targets.

Russia has not transfered S-300 missiles to Syria, reports say

May 31, 2013

Russia has not transfered S-300 missiles to Syria, reports say | The Times of Israel.

( The Lebanese newspaper al-Diyar reported Friday that Israel had succeeded in thwarting the missile deal by threatening to start an all-out war should Russia deliver the S-300s to the embattled Bashar Assad regime.)

Russian media outlet claims delivery of advanced weapons postponed until 2014; Lebanese paper reports Israel thwarted missile deal by threatening war

May 31, 2013, 9:59 am
A Russian S-300 anti-aircraft missile system on display in an undisclosed location in Russia (photo credit: AP)

A Russian S-300 anti-aircraft missile system on display at an undisclosed location in Russia (photo credit: AP)

Russia has not yet delivered advanced S-300 missiles to Syria, despite rather vague Syrian indications to the contrary, reported two Russian media outlets on Friday.

The Russian business daily Vedomosti said that it was unclear whether or not the air defense systems would be delivered this year, while the daily Kommersant reported that the S-300 missiles would only be delivered in the second quarter of 2014. According to Kommersant, the systems need another six months of testing and training before they become operational.

The Lebanese newspaper al-Diyar reported Friday that Israel had succeeded in thwarting the missile deal by threatening to start an all-out war should Russia deliver the S-300s to the embattled Bashar Assad regime.

The report also claimed that Russian President Vladimir Putin offered to compensate Assad with the delivery of other “effective and powerful weapons,” including modern aircraft and helicopters, to use against the Syrian rebels. According to al-Diyar, Putin had also passed a message to Assad saying that the entry of Hezbollah into the Syrian conflict was not helpful.

Israeli sources said Thursday that Syria has only paid for a third of the S-300 contract. They added that even if the deal is eventually honored, it would take months for the S-300 batteries to be operational.

“It is not clear to me that the Russians are interested in transferring the weapons. Right now, it’s more of a threat,” said Ehud Ya’ari, Channel 2′s veteran, well-connected commentator.

In remarks erroneously attributed to Assad on Thursday, the Syrian president was said to have boasted that his country had received the first batch of missiles from Russia, and to have asserted that “the rest of the load will arrive soon.” In an interview with Hezbollah’s Al-Manar television broadcast Thursday night, Assad actually said that Russia had fulfilled some of its weapons contracts recently, but he was vague on whether this included the advanced air defense systems.

Russia’s declared intention to deliver the sophisticated systems, which can intercept fighter jets and cruise missiles, has created a tense standoff between Israel, Syria, and Russia, with Israel threatening to do “whatever it takes” to prevent the weapons being deployed, and Syria responding that it would retaliate in kind for any Israeli strike.

Russian papers: S-300 delivery to Syria not before 2014

May 31, 2013

Russian papers: S-300 delivery to Syria not before 2014 | JPost | Israel News.

( Ride, ride my see-saw, take this place on this trip just for me… – JW )

By JPOST.COM STAFF
05/31/2013 10:23

Two sources deny reports anti-aircraft missiles were already delivered, Russian papers ‘Vedomosti’ and ‘Kommersant’ report; say six additional months would be required for training personnel, tests after delivery.

 S-300 mobile missile launching complex [Illustrative].

S-300 mobile missile launching complex [Illustrative]. Photo: REUTERS

Russia is scheduled to deliver the S-300 anti-aircraft missiles to Syria next year, two Russian newspapers reported on Friday, rejecting claims the missiles had already been transferred to the regime of President Bashar Assad, according to AFP.

The Vedomosti cited a Russia defense source as saying it was unclear if the weapons would be delivered to Syria this year, while the Kommersant quoted a source as saying the delivery was only planned for the second quarter of 2014.

Despite reports in Lebanese paper Al-Akhbar that Assad told Al Manar television the missiles had already arrived in Syria, both sources said the delivery has yet to take place.

Speaking about the delivery of the S-300 to Syria, Assad told Al-Manar that Russia is “committed to the deal and neither [Prime Minister Binyamin] Netanyahu’s visit nor the current crisis will influence the importing of arms.”

“The contracts with Russia are not linked to the crisis and Russia is committed to implementing these contracts,” he said. “Everything we have agreed on with Russia will take place, and part of it has already taken place.”

More of the missiles would arrive soon, he was quoted as saying.

A source close to Russia’s Defense Ministry said there had been a “bank transfer” in connection with the S-300 transaction, but that Russian banks were becoming increasingly nervous about dealing with Assad.

Jerusalem has yet to confirm the arrival of the missiles, which have a 200-km. range with the capacity to hit planes in northern Israel. It would create a no-fly zone that would make it impossible for the Israel Air Force to operate along the Syrian and Lebanese border, precisely at a moment when both countries are more volatile.

Israel is investigating the report, while Channels 2 and 10 reported they did not believe the missiles had arrived.

The contract, that was signed in 2010 before the outbreak of the civil unrest in Syria, was worth $1 billion according to Vedomosti.

The report in Kommersant indicated that following the delivery of the weapons in 2014, six additional month would be required for the training of personnel and tests before systems could be fully operational.

Ariel Ben Solomon and Tovah Lazaroff contributed to this report.

Netanyahu to spend another $350 million so every Israeli has gas mask

May 31, 2013

Netanyahu to spend another $350 million so every Israeli has gas mask | The Times of Israel.

Amid heightened tensions with Syria, PM concludes nationwide chemical defense drill by ordering ministries to equip 100% of residents with protective kits

May 30, 2013, 10:34 pm
A postal worker helps a child try on a gas mask in Jerusalem. (photo credit: Noam Moskowitz/Flash90)

A postal worker helps a child try on a gas mask in Jerusalem. (photo credit: Noam Moskowitz/Flash90)

Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, speaking Thursday at a meeting concluding this week’s Home Front drill, instructed government ministries to equip all of Israel’s residents with gas mask kits. The exercise, called “Turning Point 7,” tested the country’s readiness for chemical and conventional rocket attacks.

Only 58% percent of Israelis have gas masks, and it is estimated that it will take NIS 1.3 billion (some $350 million) to cover the rest of the population. In addition, it will cost NIS 300 million (some $80 million) annually to maintain the kits.

Demand for gas masks has risen by 30 percent over the past two weeks, as Israelis have become increasingly skittish over the prospect of war breaking out in the north. The rise comes in the wake of two aerial bombings near Damascus earlier this month, reportedly carried out by Israel. An Israeli analyst said Thursday that Syrian-Israeli tensions are now “incendiary.”

Up until two weeks ago, the rate of demand for gas masks was a steady 2,000 kits per day, said Israel Postal Company spokeswoman Maya Avishai. Over the past two weeks the rate climbed by 30%, reaching a new high of 4,730 on Sunday.

All told, Israel Postal has thus far distributed a total of 4,800,000 gas masks and kits, said Avishai.

Facing the threat of thousands of enemy rockets, Israel’s home front is more vulnerable than ever, Netanyahu added at the meeting.

“We are deep in the era of missiles that are aimed at civilian population areas,” Netanyahu said during a meeting of the Emergency Economy Committee. “We must prepare defensively and offensively for the new era of warfare. The state of Israel is the most threatened state in the world. Around us are tens of thousands of missiles and rockets that could hit our home front.”

Netanyahu said that November’s Operation Pillar of Defense, during which Hamas terrorists fired hundreds of rockets from Gaza at Israeli civilian areas, was a small example of the change in the nature of the threats Israel faces.

In addition to training the military and emergency services, the three-day exercise also sought to prepare the civilian population. Air-raid sirens sounded twice, drilling the civilian population in finding shelter at home, work and school.

The prime minister explained that maintaining high public morale was a key element of national security.

“Defensive preparations, first of all, mean preparing the spirit of the nation to be steadfast in order to allow the military to strike the enemy that wants to destroy us,” Netanyahu said. “It is important to maintain functional continuity in the home front that is under fire. The Israeli home front is more accessible to the enemy than it has been.

“Defense demands many resources and this requires a change in our national priorities, including legislative changes,” Netanyahu added in an apparent reference to ongoing political turmoil surrounding a universal draft law that would induct ultra-Orthodox youth into the army.

“It is the responsibility of government ministries to work together and see to it that the vital enterprises under their purview continue to operate even in emergencies in order to create functional continuity in time of emergency,” said Home Front Defense Minister Gilad Erdan.

The Emergency Economy Committee, led by Erdan, is composed of the director-generals of all government ministries, as well as representatives of other business and industry organizations. The committee is tasked with evaluating and ensuring the functional continuity of the economy and government ministries in times of emergency.

Solution to S-300 missiles needed, before it’s too late

May 30, 2013

Solution to S-300 missiles needed, before it’s too late – Israel Opinion, Ynetnews.

Past experiences taught Israeli military establishment valuable lessons regarding Russian missiles: Every system has technological, operational response. Nonetheless, no need to jump to conclusions regarding immediate danger posed by S-300

Published: 05.30.13, 19:05 / Israel Opinion

The interception systems of the S-300 missiles and the anti-ship Yakhont missiles are not doomsday weapons, nonetheless their transfer from Russia and deployment on Syrian soil – a maneuver Bashar Assad claims has already begun – would limit the Israeli Air Force and Navy’s freedom to operate in the event of a flare-up in the north.

As a result of the arms shipment, the Israeli military and civilian home front may absorb hundreds of heavy rockets and missiles. These systems may also jeopardize vital civilian activities, such as take-offs and landings at Ben Gurion Airport, as well as offshore gas drilling.

Past experience has shown that for every military technological system there is a technological or operational answer that can neutralize it. It is safe to assume that Israel’s army, Air Force and military industries can find solutions – within a relatively short period of time – to the problems posed by the S-300 missiles, on the condition that the IDF speeds up its work on this solution.

And yet, when considering the missile threat, we must recall a number of past incidents and facts from which we can draw the necessary lessons: The sinking of the INS Eilat in 1967 by the Egyptians with Russian sea-to-sea missiles; the decades that passed before the security establishment woke up and began developing a Katyusha-intercepting system; and, most importantly, we mustn’t forget the price the Air Force paid in the Yom Kippur War only because the State of Israel failed to respond when the Egyptians advanced USSR-made anti-aircraft missile batteries to the Suez Canal.
צה"ל על התעלה במלחמת ההתשה. ההבלגה עלתה ביוקר (צילום: משה מילנר, לע"מ)

Suez Canal. War of Attrition (Photo: Moshe Milner, GPO)

That move was a blatant violation of the ceasefire agreement which ended the War of Attrition 43 years ago, but at the time, Israel succumbed to American pressure and did not authorize the Air Force to destroy those missile batteries, even after the Egyptian army used them to ambush an Air Force cargo plane: The slow Stratocruiser plane, which was flying fairly deep over what was then Israeli-controlled Sinai, was downed. But Israel continued to accept the existence of a Russian-Egyptian intercepting-umbrella over the canal and over the areas in which the IDF was preparing for the Egyptian army’s crossing of the canal from the west.

The result is known: During the war the Air Force lost dozens of planes and pilots as it tried to attack the bridges the Egyptians used in order to cross the canal and butcher IDF soldiers.

Despite the fact that at the time, the current IAF commander, Maj-Gen Amir Eshel, was only a schoolboy, the trauma of the aforementioned events still lives one, and its troubling implications are a matter of concern not just for the IAF’s boys in blue but also for the entire defense establishment, including both the defense minister and the prime minister himself. What happened in 1973 with the SA-2, SA-3, SA-4, SA-6 missiles could repeat itself in a number of months with the modern SA-17, S-300 and Yakhont missiles.

Hence the Kremlin should understand the words of Defense Minister Moshe Ya’alon and National Security Adviser Yaakov Amidror regarding the S-300, in their most practical sense. “Israel will know what to do,” Ya’alon declared throughout the media, and Amidror clarified the defense minister’s statement before a group of European diplomats saying that “Israel will not allow these systems to become fully operational.” Those who know what’s what will say Amidror’s statement hints at the Israeli line of action all the while offering the Russians a way of backing out of the corner into which they have backed themselves, at least if they so desire.

Unanswered questions

So, how dangerous are the Russian missiles? In this regard it is worth pointing out the components that designate how dangerous a weapon system is:

1. The make and model of the radar and missiles which arrived in Syria. The S-300 has a number of different models of radar and missiles, some of which are more advanced (and hence more dangerous) and some less so. Whatever the Russians did send Assad needs to be thoroughly examined.
(צילום: AP)

Operational or not? (Photo: AP)

2. Will these systems be passed on to Hezbollah? Responsible and senior sources seriously doubt that Hezbollah will be given a system as advanced as the S-300. They are too complex and too big, and politically the Russians will not allow the Syrian regime to pass the systems onto a non-state agent to which the UN forbids weapon transfers.

Nonetheless, it is possible that Assad will place the systems in the southernmost tip of the Alawite’s Syrian enclave, where they will pose a definite threat to our planes and activities in Lebanon.

3. The fact that Syrian soldiers received training in operating the system in Russia, and that certain components of the anti-aircraft system have already arrived in Syria still do not prove that the system is operational and dangerous to Israeli planes. For that to happen the delivery of all the system’s parts must be completed and the parts need to make it to their destination safe and sound; those operating them must be adept in putting the system together and into action; the system itself needs to be posted in sites from which it could be operationally active and where interference or any other malfunction regarding its operationality could be examined. In other words, everything needed for it to become operational needs to happen and that could take up to anywhere from a couple of months to a few years. Until then, these systems serve more as an opportunity for us than a threat.

4. The number of interception missiles is also crucial for assessing the magnitude of the threat the system poses.

5. The Russians are well known for invoking their creativity in regards to closing arms deals; in other words: Things happen, the media repots, but in reality something slightly (or completely) different takes place. The Russians have a clear interest not to anger the West beyond a certain point, thus pushing it to arm the rebels. They want a peace conference, but on their terms.

The conclusion is that we should wait and seriously scrutinize what really went where and to whom before we jump to the conclusion that these systems have already become an unbearable threat to Israel. This goes for the S-300 as well as the other systems which the Russians plan to transfer to Syria.

None of this changes the need to formulate – as soon as possible – “soft” as well as “hard” responses to the problem of scale tipping arms systems which are probably currently en route to Syria.

Assad’s army demands machine guns, grenade launchers from Russia

May 30, 2013

Assad’s army demands machine guns, grenade launchers from Russia – Israel News, Ynetnews.

Not only S-300 – Washington Post reveals ‘shopping list’ Assad’s troops sent Russia; Syrian general: ‘We want quote in shortest time.’ List includes thousands of Kalashnikovs, grenade launchers, sniper rifles

Ynet

Published: 05.30.13, 19:34 / Israel News

Even as Israel worriedly follows shipments of S-300s said to be making their way from Russia to Syria, the army of Syrian President Bashar Assad continues in its arms race, in order to withstand daily combat against opposition forces. What might indicate the true situation of Assad’s troops is the ‘shopping list’ sent in March by the Syrian army to its main supplier, Russia.

According to the Washington Post, the requests included 1,000 folding stock Kalashnikovs, 20,000 7.62mm Kalashnikov assault rifles, sniper rifles with night sights, 400 Kord machine guns, 100 Kord mini machine guns, 500 PK machine guns, 60 14.5 mm machine guns, 1,300 grenade launchers, 100 automatic 40 mm grenade launchers and more than 20 million bullets.

The Syrian general who sent the letter asked for a bid in “the shortest possible time” and at the end of the document, sent his regards to Rosoboronexport, Russia’s state arms exporter.

Rosoboronexport refused to confirm this. A copy of the order obtained by the Washington Post stated Russian commitment to deliver arms to Syria, as prescribed in “indefinite delivery, indefinite quantity” contracts.

While the article revealed that the list included mostly small arms, Assad continues to outfit his military with large scale weaponry as well.

In an interview with the Al-Manar Hezbollah-affiliated network, Assad stated Tuesday that Damascus has already received the first shipment of advanced S-300 anti-aircraft missiles. “The rest of the shipments will arrive soon,” Assad said, adding, “The Syrian army will immediately respond to any additional Israeli attack on the territory of Syria.”
חייל סורי במהלך הלחימה בקוסייר (צילום: AFP)

Syrian army soldier (Photo: AFP)

Meanwhile, Western officials arm the opposition. As of this weekend, France and Britain could arm the rebels, after the European Union removes the embargo on arms to Syria. Barack Obama‘s administration – though wary of military intervention – may also begin to provide weapons to the rebels. This is in addition to large amounts of money transferred to the rebels over the last period from Saudi Arabia, Qatar and wealthy entities in the Persian Gulf.

June 5: Meeting preceding international conference

Against the backdrop of the dealing, Russian, US and UN officials are scheduled to meet next week, to discuss ways to bring the warring sides in Syria together for a peace conference, Russian news agencies quoted a Foreign Ministry official as saying on Thursday.

“Preparations for the international conference on Syria will be discussed” at the three-way meeting in Geneva on June 5, Interfax quoted the unidentified Russian ministry source as saying.

The official said US Under Secretary of State for Political Affairs Wendy Sherman and UN Under Secretary General for Political Affairs Jeffrey Feltman would attend the June 5 meeting. State-run news agency RIA said Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Mikhail Bogdanov would also take part.

Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov and US Secretary of State John Kerry said on May 7 they would try to bring Syrian government and opposition representatives together as soon as possible for talks aimed at ending the 26-month-old conflict. No date has been set for the conference.

Lavrov accused the opposition Syrian National Coalition of undermining peace efforts after it said on Wednesday it would take part in the conference only if a deadline was set for a settlement that would force Assad to leave power.

Reuters contributed to this report

Analysis: Israel could swoop on S-300 missiles in Syria, but with risks | Reuters

May 30, 2013

Analysis: Israel could swoop on S-300 missiles in Syria, but with risks | Reuters.

A Belarusssian S-300 mobile missile launching system drives to take part in a rehearsal for the Independence Day parade in central Minsk June 27, 2011. REUTERS/Vasily Fedosenko

JERUSALEM | Thu May 30, 2013 11:06am EDT

(Reuters) – Israel could overcome advanced S-300 anti-aircraft missiles if they were deployed in Syria but any strikes on the system would be difficult and risk alienating its supplier, Russia.

Israel has pledged to take preventive action, seeing a future Syrian S-300 as a “game-changing” threat to its own airspace as well as to the relative free rein with which it now overflies its northern foe and neighboring Lebanon.

Experts agree that Israeli sabotage or open force to disrupt delivery by Russia is extremely unlikely – a view seemingly shored up by Syrian President Bashar al-Assad’s announcement on Thursday that the first missiles had arrived.

That leaves Israel lobbying Moscow to slow down the shipment in hopes it would be overtaken and scrapped if Assad fell to a more than two-year-old rebellion, and in parallel preparing counter-measures to neutralize the S-300 on the ground in Syria.

The Israeli newspaper Haaretz quoted National Security Adviser Yaakov Amidror as warning European diplomats that Israel would “prevent the S-300 missiles from becoming operational”. That may be achieved by ensuring Assad does not get the full system, experts say, or by disabling it militarily if he does.

“The S-300 would be the pinnacle of Russian-supplied arms for Syria,” Colonel Zvika Haimovich, a senior Israeli air force officer, told Reuters in an interview. “Though it would impinge on our operations, we are capable of overcoming it.

He said Israel’s “red line” on the S-300 was “between Syria and others”. This was a hint Israel might hold off on bombing the batteries as long they did not appear set on shooting down planes within Israeli airspace, of being transferred to Lebanese Hezbollah guerrillas or to Iran – both staunch allies of Assad and enemies of Israel, or of being looted by Islamist rebels.

MARKETING MOSCOW

The Israelis excel in electronic warfare. In 1982, they “blinded” Soviet-supplied Syrian anti-aircraft units in Lebanon, then destroyed 19 of them without Israeli losses. Similar technologies helped Israeli jets destroy a suspected nuclear reactor in Syria in 2007 and, this year, to hit Syrian targets on at least three occasions to prevent what intelligence sources called attempts to move advanced weaponry to Hezbollah.

A source close to Russia’s defense ministry agreed that the Israelis “likely have a million ways to combat the S-300 electronically”. But he questioned their feasibility because they had not been tested in war.

“So, whether the S-300 would fail or not cannot be known”.

Robert Hewson, an IHS Jane’s air power analyst, predicted Israeli prowess would prevail in Syria while cautioning that the S-300 would be the most formidable air defense system it had ever faced. “Israel has had nasty surprises from these things before,” he said, noting its steep losses to the Soviet anti-aircraft missiles used by Syria and Egypt in the 1973 war.

Hewson felt Israel would prefer to destroy the S-300 in Syria but may opt instead just to circumvent it as required for missions, especially if there was the risk of inadvertently killing or wounding Russians helping to install the system.

Security sources have put the number of Russian military personnel in Syria at several hundred.

“The Russians would react badly to losing their people, and Israel knows that equally,” Hewson said.

Former Israeli defense minister Moshe Arens said Moscow should be mindful of the harm that seeing the S-300 defeated in Syria would do to exports of the system elsewhere.

Past clients include Cyprus, whose S-300, posted on the Greek island of Crete, may have given Israel’s air force a chance for test runs during maneuvers over the Mediterranean.

“I’d be very surprised if the Russians deliver this system (to Syria),” Arens told Israel Radio. “It would become apparent that our air force is capable of besting this system, and that would not make for good advertising.”

Playing down the strategic challenge that would be posed to Israel by a Syrian S-300, Arens added. “We are not afraid. This would simply change the situation, and we are not interested in the situation being changed to our detriment.”

HAZY DEPLOYMENT TIMELINE

The timeline for the anticipated Syrian deployment of the S-300 remains hazy. Hewson said it could be “up and running within a minimum of a few weeks” once all components were in, and provided qualified Syrian personnel were available.

But the Russian defense ministry source said he knew of no Syrians who had already been trained by Moscow, and put the completion of the S-300 delivery at “six to 12 months from now”.

Assuming Assad survives in power, such a lag could provide Israel with thwarting opportunities.

Hewson said the truck-towed S-300 would be physically hard to conceal. Its radar, if activated, would emit a distinctive signal that Israel could easily monitor, he added.

Diplomatic alternatives may not have been exhausted, though.

Yuval Steinitz, a senior member of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s cabinet, held on Thursday what political sources described as a discussion of the Syrian S-300 deal with Russian Ambassador Sergei Yakovlev.

In 2010, following Israeli appeals, Russia scrapped an S-300 sale to Iran. In what may have been a quid pro quo, the Israelis also agreed that year to sell Russia surveillance drones that would narrow its technological military gap with rival Georgia.

Russia now has other strategic interests – for example, investment in Israel’s Mediterranean gas fields. Silvan Shalom, another Israeli cabinet minister, told Reuters that Russian President Vladimir Putin mentioned the gas fields while hosting Netanyahu in Sochi on May 14 for talks that focused on Syria.

But Zvi Magen, a former Israeli ambassador to Moscow, was skeptical that Israel could offer anything that would spur Putin to slacken his support for Assad. “There’s too much at stake here for the Russians,” he said.

He was alluding to the conflagration’s wider geo-strategic dimensions – pitting a Russian preference to keep Syria under Assad’s control to preserve Moscow’s last significant toehold in the Middle East against a Western and Gulf Arab desire for the downfall of Assad to roll back Iranian influence in the region.

(Additional reporting by Thomas Grove in Moscow; Editing by Jeffrey Heller and Mark Heinrich)