Archive for April 26, 2013

White House: We don’t know if Syria red line has been crossed | FP

April 26, 2013

White House: We don’t know if Syria red line has been crossed | The Cable.

Despite a new U.S. intelligence community assessment that the Syrian regime likely used chemical weapons on its own people, the White House is still waiting for more evidence before deciding whether Bashar al-Assad has crossed President Barack Obama’s “red line.”

The White House scrambled Thursday to set up a conference call with reporters following Thursday morning’s news that the U.S. intelligence community has concluded with varying levels of confidence that there has been small-scale use of sarin, a deadly nerve gas, inside Syria, most likely by the Syrian regime. Secretary of State John Kerry told lawmakers Thursday that the assessment referenced two instances of chemical weapons use in Syria.

A senior White House official said on the conference call that the intelligence community’s assessment was not enough to determine that President Obama’s red line regarding U.S. intervention in Syria has been crossed.

“We are continuing to do further work to establish a definitive judgment as to whether or not the red line has been crossed and to inform our decision-making about what to do next,” the official said. “If we reach a definitive determination that this red line has been crossed, based on credible, corroborated information, what we will be doing is consulting closely with our friends and allies and the international community more broadly, as well as the Syrian opposition, to determine what the best course of action is.”

The official indirectly referenced the flawed intelligence assessments about Saddam Hussein‘s programs of weapons of mass destruction in the lead up to the Iraq war as justification for caution.

“I’d say that given our own history with intelligence assessments, including intelligence assessments related to weapons of mass destruction, it’s very important that we are able to establish this with certainty and that we are able to present information that is airtight in a public and credible fashion to underpin all of our decision-making. That is, I think, the threshold that is demanded given how serious this issue is,” the official said. “But again, I think nobody should have any mistake about what our red line is… It is absolutely the case that the president’s red line is the use of chemical weapons or the transfer of chemical weapons to terrorist groups.”

The Obama administration is keeping all options on the table, but the official declined to say what options might be considered if and when it is confirmed that the president’s red line has been crossed. The official also declined to identify the locations or dates of the two alleged uses of chemical weapons in Syria, but acknowledged that a March incident in Aleppo had spurred the United States to press for a fuller investigation.

“We will constantly have prepared contingency planning for different scenarios within Syria,” the official said. “What the Assad regime needs to know is that we are watching this incredibly closely.”

The White House’s conclusion that not enough evidence exists to confirm that the Syrian regime has crossed Obama’s red line was contradicted Thursday by Democratic Sen. Dianne Feinstein (D-CA), the chairwoman of the Senate Select Committee on Intelligence.

“It is clear that ‘red lines’ have been crossed and action must be taken to prevent larger scale use,” she said in a statement. “Syria has the ability to kill tens of thousands with its chemical weapons. The world must come together to prevent this by unified action which results in the secure containment of Syria’s significant stockpile of chemical weapons.”

The original announcement about the new intelligence community assessment on Syrian chemical weapons came in statements Thursday from Defense Secretary Chuck Hagel and in a letter from the White House to several senators delivered Thursday morning during an otherwise classified briefing.

“Our intelligence community does asses with varying degrees of confidence that the Syrian regime has used chemical weapons on a small scale in Syria, specifically the chemical agent Sarin,” Miguel Rodriguez, the director of the White House office of legislative affairs, wrote in the letter.

The Boston Marathon bombing – The FBI investigates (Satire)

April 26, 2013

The Boston Marathon bombing – The FBI investigates (Satire) – YouTube.

Russia Told U.S. Bomb Suspect Was Radical Islamist – NYTimes.com

April 26, 2013

Russia Told U.S. Bomb Suspect Was Radical Islamist – NYTimes.com.

Christopher Gregory/The New York Times

Secretary of State John Kerry and several senators leaving a classified intelligence briefing in Washington on Thursday.

 

 

WASHINGTON — In March 2011, the Russian security service sent a stark warning to the F.B.I., reporting that Tamerlan Tsarnaev was “a follower of radical Islam” who had “changed drastically since 2010” and was preparing to travel to Russia’s turbulent Caucasus to connect with underground militant groups. Six months later, Russia sent the same warning to the C.I.A.

 

On April 15, law enforcement officials say, Mr. Tsarnaev and his younger brother, Dzhokhar, set off bombs at the Boston Marathon, killing three people and maiming many others.

 

The Russian warnings to the F.B.I. and the C.I.A. also raised questions about Mr. Tsarnaev’s mother, Zubeidat, according to two senior American officials. The Russians were most concerned about Mr. Tsarnaev because they had information that he planned to travel to Russia, according to one of the officials. “The Russians were concerned that mother and son were very religious and strong believers, and they could be militants if they returned to Russia,” the other official said.

 

The mother, the officials said, did not fit the profile of a potential extremist, leading American counterterrorism officials to not express much concern about her. They did not set up a travel alert on her, for instance, one of the officials said. But they nonetheless added her name to the Terrorist Identities Datamart Environment, or TIDE database, when Tamerlan’s name was added to it in October 2011, the official said.

 

Should the Russian warnings — seemingly confirmed in part last year when the counterterrorism task force in Boston learned that Mr. Tsarnaev was traveling to Russia — have permitted American officials to foil the marathon plot? That question emerged on Thursday as the crux of a debate among members of Congress, counterterrorism officials and outside experts about whether, and how, the security system failed.

 

F.B.I. officials have defended their response to the Russian tip, which prompted agents to interview Mr. Tsarnaev and his parents and check government databases and Internet activity. The bureau found nothing.

 

On Thursday, some members of Congress and former government officials said Tamerlan Tsarnaev’s six-month visit to Dagestan last year was a missed opportunity to refocus attention on him and potentially prevent the attack. Others suggested that the criticism was 20-20 hindsight, and that the F.B.I.’s performance was reasonable under the circumstances.

 

The critical moment came in January 2012, when a Customs database sent an alert about Mr. Tsarnaev’s plan to travel to Russia to a Customs agent assigned to the F.B.I.-led Joint Terrorism Task Force in Boston, according to a Congressional official. It is unclear who else saw the information, but it does not appear to have prompted any new scrutiny of Mr. Tsarnaev at the time or when he returned to the United States that July.

 

“If there was a failure at any time, maybe it was at that point, to get a follow-up interview,” said Representative Mike Rogers, Republican of Michigan and chairman of the House Intelligence Committee, a former F.B.I. agent. “But even so, it’s hard to say they did something wrong. Travel in and of itself is not derogatory information, and that area is far down on our priority list.”

 

Across Capitol Hill, senators from both parties emerged from a classified briefing on the bombings sounding generally supportive of the F.B.I. “I wish there would have been more,” said Senator Jeff Flake, an Arizona Republican on the Intelligence Committee, “but I’m not in a position to say that I would have done it differently.” Senator Carl Levin, a Michigan Democrat who leads the Armed Services Committee, said, “Unless there’s additional information that pops up, I’m not critical of their actions.”

 

But Senator Lindsey Graham, Republican of South Carolina, said in earlier remarks to reporters that the Boston bombing case “is becoming, to me, a case study in system failure.”

 

“You have Russian intelligence services contacting two agencies within our federal government responsible for our national security, the F.B.I. and the C.I.A.,” he said. “They tell us, ‘We believe you have a radical Islamist in your midst.’ ” Despite the warning and the F.B.I.’s initial follow-up, Mr. Graham said, Mr. Tsarnaev was able to visit Dagestan and return unnoticed, and discuss “killing Americans” openly on the Internet undetected.

 

Jimmy Gurulé, a former counterterrorism official who teaches at Notre Dame Law School, said the alert about Mr. Tsarnaev’s travel plans should have prompted new attention, since it appeared to give weight to the Russian warning. He said that the authorities should have sought a court warrant to monitor his cellphone and e-mail while he was in Russia. “When he came back to the United States, they should have pulled him out of the Customs line, inspected his belongings, looked at his laptop and cellphone and questioned him about what he had done in Dagestan,” said Mr. Gurulé.

 

But law enforcement officials said it was unrealistic to expect the F.B.I., which had already taken a hard look at Mr. Tsarnaev, to reopen the case merely because of his travel. The TIDE database has roughly 700,000 names in it, a senior law enforcement official said, and Customs officials get 20 or 30 alerts every day about travel by people in various databases.

 

In addition, the official said, it would have violated Justice Department guidelines to keep pursuing Mr. Tsarnaev after the initial assessment found no evidence of a crime. “You pursue the original information, come to conclusions,” he said.

 

The official said that the F.B.I. would certainly have looked at Mr. Tsarnaev again if the Russians had told the bureau that they had developed more information on him during his trip. “That is all that would have taken,” the official said.

 

One factor in the failure to follow up may have been Mr. Tsarnaev’s ethnicity as a Chechen and his destination, Dagestan, according to both government officials and independent specialists. While those might have set off suspicions in Russia, militants from the Caucasus have generally not targeted the United States.

U.S. Says It Suspects Assad Used Chemical Weapons – NYTimes.com

April 26, 2013

U.S. Says It Suspects Assad Used Chemical Weapons – NYTimes.com.

 

WASHINGTON — The White House said Thursday that it believes the Syrian government has used chemical weapons in its civil war, an assessment that could test President Obama’s repeated warnings that such an attack could precipitate American intervention in Syria.

The White House, in a letter to Congressional leaders, said the nation’s intelligence agencies assessed “with varying degrees of confidence” that the government of President Bashar al-Assad had used the chemical agent sarin on a small scale.

But it said more conclusive evidence was needed before Mr. Obama would take action, referring obliquely to both the Bush administration’s use of faulty intelligence in the march to war in Iraq and the ramifications of any decision to enter another conflict in the Middle East.

Senator Dianne Feinstein, Democrat of California, who is chairwoman of the Senate Intelligence Committee, said the agencies actually expressed more certainty about the use of these weapons than the White House indicated in its letter. She said Thursday that they voiced medium to high confidence in their assessment, which officials said was based on the testing of soil samples and blood drawn from people who had been wounded.

American officials said the attacks, which occurred last month in a village near Aleppo and in the outskirts of Damascus, had not been definitively connected to Mr. Assad. The White House said the “chain of custody” of the weapons was not clear, raising questions about whether the attacks were deliberate or accidental.

“Given the stakes involved, and what we have learned from our own recent experience, intelligence assessments alone are not sufficient,” the White House said in the letter, which was signed by its legislative director, Miguel E. Rodriguez. “Only credible and corroborated facts that provide us with some degree of certainty will guide our decision-making.”

That meticulously legal language did not disguise a thorny political and foreign policy problem for Mr. Obama: he has long resisted the calls to arm the Syrian rebels and has expressed deep doubts about the wisdom of intervening in an Arab nation so riven with sectarian strife, although he has also issued pointed warnings to Syria.

In a statement last summer, Mr. Obama did not offer a technical definition of his “red line” for taking action, but said it was when “we start seeing a whole bunch of weapons moving around or being utilized.” In Jerusalem last month, he said proof that Syria had used such weapons would be a “game changer” for American involvement.

The Pentagon, administration officials said, has prepared the president a menu of options that include commando raids that would secure chemical weapons stockpiles and strikes on Syrian planes from American ships in the Mediterranean. Last year, the United States secretly sent a 150-member task force to Jordan to help deal with the possibility that Syria would lose control of its stockpiles. Mr. Obama could also provide more robust aid to the rebels, including weapons.

White House officials gave no indication of what Mr. Obama might do, except to say that any American action would be taken in concert with its allies.

While lawmakers from both parties swiftly declared that the president’s red line had been breached, they differed on what he should do about it.

“The political reality is that he put himself in that position that if the ‘red line’ is crossed — he made it very clear — it would change his behavior,” Senator John McCain, Republican of Arizona, said. The intelligence “is a compelling argument for the president to take the measures that a lot of us have been arguing for all along,” he said.

The timing of the White House disclosure also suggested the pressures it is facing. It came the same day that the British government said that it had “limited but persuasive” evidence of the use of chemical weapons, and two days after an Israeli military intelligence official asserted that Syria had repeatedly used chemical weapons.

In a letter to the United Nations secretary general, Ban Ki-moon, several weeks ago calling for a United Nations investigation, Britain laid out evidence of the attacks in Aleppo and near Damascus as well as an earlier one in Homs.

The letter, a copy of which was obtained by The New York Times, reported that dozens of victims were treated at hospitals for shortness of breath, convulsions and dilation of the pupils, common symptoms of exposure to chemical warfare agents. Doctors reported eye irritation and fatigue after close exposure to the patients.

Citing its links to contacts in the Syrian opposition, Britain said there were reports of 15 deaths in the suburban Damascus attack and up to 10 in Aleppo, where the government and rebels have each accused the other of using chemical weapons.

“Fortunately the deaths have not been high,” Senator Feinstein said, “but there have been deaths.”

The United States has also pushed for a United Nations investigation, but it made clear on Thursday that it has collected enough evidence on its own and with Britain and other countries to make its assessment. An official said the United States was also suspicious about the attack in Homs.

While several officials said the intelligence agencies expressed medium to high confidence about its overall assessment, two intelligence officials noted that there were components of the assessment about which the agencies were less certain. They did not offer details.

Administration officials had begun the week casting doubt on the claims made by the Israeli official, Brig. Gen. Itai Brun, about chemical weapons. “Suspicions are one thing; evidence is another,” Defense Secretary Chuck Hagel said Wednesday on a visit to Egypt.

But by then, a senior administration official said, the intelligence agencies had already become more confident of their assessment, after several weeks of examining the evidence. With Secretary of State John Kerry scheduled to brief senators on Syria on Thursday, the White House decided on Wednesday evening to get ahead of that meeting.

The administration’s disclosure came in a response to Mr. McCain, a senior member of the Senate Armed Services Committee, and the committee’s chairman, Senator Carl Levin of Michigan, who wrote to the White House asking whether Mr. Assad or his supporters had used chemical weapons during the two-year-long war.

“Given the fact that we have been developing additional information within our intelligence community,” a White House official said to reporters, “we felt it was the right and prudent thing to do to respond in an unclassified form to this letter.”

Lawmakers generally welcomed the White House’s disclosure, though some suggested that the administration was still inclined to play down the implications of the assessment.

“It is important that we read the intelligence as it is laid out, not as we would like it to be,” said Representative Mike Rogers, Republican of Michigan and the chairman of the House Intelligence Committee.

Michael R. Gordon contributed reporting from Washington; Thom Shanker from Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates; and David E. Sanger from Jerusalem.

US has a range of military options in Syria

April 26, 2013

US has a range of military options in Syria | The Times of Israel.

White House makes clear that any action against Assad would likely be either with NATO backing or with a coalition of nations

April 26, 2013, 12:32 am
An illustrative photo of US Marines during a drill in California (photo credit: LCpl Ali Azimi/US Marines)

An illustrative photo of US Marines during a drill in California (photo credit: LCpl Ali Azimi/US Marines)

WASHINGTON (AP) — US commanders have laid out a range of possible options for military involvement in Syria, but they have made it clear that any action would likely be either with NATO backing or with a coalition of nations similar to the NATO-led overthrow of Libyan dictator Col. Moammar Gadhafi in 2011.

The White House announced Thursday that intelligence officials have concluded that the regime of Syrian President Bashar Assad has twice used sarin gas on its own people. But even though President Barack Obama has called that a “red line” for taking some kind of further action to assist the rebels, administration officials said Thursday the intelligence wasn’t solid enough to warrant such a move.

On Thursday, US officials said that there has been no new movement of US military assets to the region.

The military options could include establishing a no-fly zone or a secured area within Syria, launching airstrikes by drones and fighter jets and sending in tens of thousands of ground forces to secure the regime’s chemical weapons caches.

Setting up a no-fly zone over Syria would present a greater challenge than it did in Libya because Syria has a more sophisticated and robust air defense system. Crippling it would require jamming the radars and taking out the missile sites, or possibly even using some type of cyberattack to interfere with the system.

According to a report by the Institute for the Study of War, Syria’s largely Soviet-era air defense system includes as many as 300 mobile surface to air missile systems and defense systems, and more than 600 static missile launchers and sites.

Some senators have also pressed for the US to set up a narrow, so-called safe zone inside Syria, along its border with Turkey where citizens could go and be safe. To do so would also require neutralizing Syria’s air defenses. US hunter-killer drones, fighter jets and missile launches from ships could be used to attack the air defense sites.

During a recent Senate Armed Services hearing, Adm. Jim Stravidis, the top US commander in Europe and NATO’s supreme allied commander, said there is a “great deal of discussion” among allies about the various options, including the no-fly zone and providing additional lethal support to the rebels.

The US has taken only minimal military steps so far, including the deployment of about 200 troops to Jordan to assist that country’s military. The US also participated in NATO’s placement of Patriot missile batteries in Turkey near the border to protect against an attack from Syria.

A new Army headquarters unit is being deployed to replace the 200 troops in Jordan, giving the US a stronger command and control unit, if the decision is made to send any additional forces.

In testimony to Congress last week, Gen. Martin Dempsey, the chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, was asked whether he was confident that US forces could secure the chemical weapons caches within Syria.

“Not as I sit here today, simply because they’ve been moving it and the number of sites is quite numerous,” Dempsey said.

Copyright 2013 The Associated Press

US says Assad used sarin, but unsure if red line was crossed

April 26, 2013

US says Assad used sarin, but unsure if red line was crossed | The Times of Israel.

Two days after Israeli bombshell, US defense secretary says intelligence confirms use of nerve agents; White House still checking into matter

April 25, 2013, 7:09 pm Updated: April 25, 2013, 10:07 pm
Chuck Hagel speaking with reporters after reading a statement on chemical weapon use in Syria during a press conference in Abu Dhabi on Thursday. (photo credit: AP/Jim Watson, Pool)

Chuck Hagel speaking with reporters after reading a statement on chemical weapon use in Syria during a press conference in Abu Dhabi on Thursday. (photo credit: AP/Jim Watson, Pool)

US Defense Secretary Chuck Hagel said Thursday that the US intelligence community now believes Syria has likely used chemical weapons on a “small scale” against its civilians.

Hagel added that the use of chemical weapons “violates every convention of warfare.”

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The statement came on the heels of a public declaration Tuesday by the Israeli army’s top intelligence analyst that forces loyal to President Bashar Assad had used sarin gas against rebel forces and civilians, and may push the US closer to intervening in the two-year-old conflict.

The White House, however, said the news would not necessarily trigger a response.

US Secretary of State John Kerry said the Syrian regime had launched two chemical attacks.

Hagel, speaking to reporters in Abu Dhabi, said the White House had informed two senators by letter that, within the past day, “our intelligence community does assess, with varying degrees of confidence, that the Syrian regime has used chemical weapons on a small scale in Syria, specifically, the chemical agent sarin.”

Britain followed the statement by saying London also believed there had been chemical attacks.

“We have limited but persuasive information from various sources showing chemical weapon use in Syria, including sarin,” a statement by the Foreign Office said. “This is extremely concerning. Use of chemical weapons is a war crime.”

Sarin, used by Saddam Hussein in aerial strikes against Iraqi Kurds in 1988 and in a Japan terror attack in 1995, is a nerve agent that cripples the respiratory system. It is hundreds of times more toxic than cyanide and is considered a weapon of mass destruction.

No information was made public on what quantity of chemical weapons might have been used in Syria, or when or what casualties might have resulted.

A victim of an alleged chemical attack in Jobar, Syria, earlier this month. (Screenshot via YouTube)

A victim of an alleged chemical attack in Jobar, Syria, earlier this month. (Screenshot via YouTube)

Hagel and President Barack Obama have said in the past the use of chemical weapons would be a “game-changer” in the US position on intervening in the Syrian civil war.

However, the White House said the intelligence fell short of what was needed to cross Obama’s “red line” on Syrian chemical weapons.

“We are continuing to do further work to establish a definitive judgment as to whether or not the red line has been crossed and to inform our decision-making about what to do next,” a senior administration official told reporters, according to a report in Foreign Policy. “If we reach a definitive determination that this red line has been crossed, based on credible, corroborated information, what we will be doing is consulting closely with our friends and allies and the international community more broadly, as well as the Syrian opposition, to determine what the best course of action is.”

Alluding to faulty intelligence in the lead up to the 2003 Iraq War, the official said the White House would do its homework before acting.

“I’d say that given our own history with intelligence assessments, including intelligence assessments related to weapons of mass destruction, it’s very important that we are able to establish this with certainty and that we are able to present information that is airtight in a public and credible fashion to underpin all of our decision-making,” the official said.

White House legislative director Miguel Rodriguez, who signed the letter cited by Hagel, wrote that “because the president takes this issue so seriously, we have an obligation to fully investigate any and all evidence of chemical weapons use within Syria.”

The letter went to Sens. John McCain, R-Ariz., and Carl Levin, D-Mich.

The assessment, Rodriguez said, is based in part on “physiological samples.”

He also said the US believes that the use of chemical weapons “originated with the Assad regime.” That is consistent with the Obama administration’s assertion that the Syrian rebels do not have access to the country’s stockpiles.

Reacting to Washington’s announcement, United Nations Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon urged Syria to let inspectors into the country to independently ascertain suspicions that Assad had used chemical weapons.

“The secretary general has consistently urged the Syrian authorities to provide full and unfettered access to the team. He renews this urgent call today,” UN spokesman Martin Nesirky said.

“The fact-finding team is on stand-by and ready to deploy in 24-48 hours,” he added.

Earlier in the week, Hagel and Kerry had said they could not confirm a report by Israeli Brig. Gen. Itai Brun that the IDF was quite certain that Assad deployed chemical weapons against rebel forces in Syria on March 19.

Speaking at a security conference in Tel Aviv on Tuesday, Brun said further that based on the pictures of the victims — the size of their pupils, “and the foam coming out of their mouths” — the army believed that Assad’s troops had used sarin.

Brun also claimed that in Syria today there are over 1,000 tons of chemical weapons, including sarin and VX, both of which can be deployed from artillery rounds and long-range ballistic missiles.

Chemical weapons have been used on more than one occasion in Syria, and the world’s persistent reluctance to act in response to the use of those weapons is typical of the major powers’ current approach to the tremors shaking the Middle East, Brun said.

“We should be very, very worried about [chemical weapons] falling into the hands of those who do not conduct gain-loss considerations,” he said.

Kerry responded to Brun’s comments by saying he had spoken to Israeli prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, who could not confirm them.

On Wednesday, Hagel said he had not been briefed on the Israeli assessment during consultations with Israeli Defense Minister Moshe Ya’alon.

He added then that Washington was looking for “real intelligence” on the issue of Syrian chemical weapon use. “Suspicions are one thing. Evidence is another,” Hagel said. “I think we have to be very careful here before we make any conclusions, draw any conclusions, based on real intelligence.”

Times of Israel staff contributed to this report.

US lawmakers demand action on Syria chemical weapons

April 26, 2013

US lawmakers demand action on Syria chemical weapons – Israel News, Ynetnews.

After White House says Assad regime used chemical weapons in civil war, members of Congress urge Obama to act. ‘We do not want them to fall into the wrong hands,’ McCain says. Democrat Dianne Feinstein: Red lines have been crossed

Ynet, AFP

Published: 04.26.13, 00:45 / Israel News

Members of Congress urged US President Barack Obama on Thursday to take action to “secure” Syria’s chemical weapons after he warned that strongman Bashar Assad used them against his own people.

Republican Senator John McCain led the revulsion and anger in Congress, saying it was now up to Obama to coordinate a response that prevents such weapons, including the agent sarin, from falling into the hands of terrorists or extremist groups.

Obama “said that if Bashar Assad used chemical weapons, it would be a game-changer, that it would cross a red line. I think it’s pretty obvious that a red line has been crossed,” McCain told reporters.

“We have to have operational capability to secure these chemical weapon stocks,” he added. “We do not want them to fall into the wrong hands, and the wrong hands are a number of participants in the struggle that’s taking place in Syria.”

For months the veteran Republican has urged Obama to take a more pro-active role in the Syrian conflict and pressed him to help arm Syrian rebels and ensure safe havens in the country.

On Thursday he called for increased White House pressure on Russia and Iran to stop supplying weapons to Assad, and greater commitment to aid Syria’s rebel groups fighting Damascus.
חיות מתות בחאן אל-אסל שליד חלב. לטענת התושבים, הן מתו מחומר כימי שפיזרו כוחות אסד (צילום: רויטרס)

Dead animals in Khan al-Assal. Rebels say they died from chemical agent (Photo: Reuters) 

“The situation on the ground today is stalemate, with the Iranians and the Russians all in, and the United States of America gives them (Syrian rebels) flak jackets. That is not comforting when Scud missiles are hitting you.”

Defense Secretary Chuck Hagel said Thursday that US intelligence has concluded “with some degree of varying confidence” that the Syrian government has used sarin gas as a weapon in its two-year-old civil war.

Following Hagel’s comments, US Secretary of State John Kerry said on Capitol Hill that there were two instances of chemical weapons use.
על פי דמשק, אלה הם פצועים בהתקפת נשק כימי של המורדים בחלב (צילום: EPA)

People Damascus claims were injured in rebel chemical attack in Aleppo (Photo: EPA) 

Democrat Dianne Feinstein, chair of the Senate Intelligence Committee, concurred that “red lines have been crossed” in Syria.

“Action must be taken to prevent larger scale use. Syria has the ability to kill tens of thousands with its chemical weapons,” she said in a statement.

“The world must come together to prevent this by unified action which results in the secure containment of Syria’s significant stockpile of chemical weapons.”
על פי המורדים, אלו אזרחים שנפגעו בהתקפת נשק כימי מצד המשטר

Man rebels claim was injured in chemical attack by Assad forces

Republican Howard “Buck” McKeon, chairman of the House Armed Services Committee, said Assad’s use of chemical weapons on the Syrian people, if true, is “an astounding violation of human rights,” and triggers a “national security imperative.”

Obama now has “a deep moral imperative” to act, McKeon said.

Republican Senator Saxby Chambliss said the chemical weapons revelation “changes the game.”

Asked what the next US step should be, Chambliss told AFP: “That’s for our military folks to tell us.”

Republican Senator Marco Rubio of Florida issued a statement urging US military action against the Assad regime.

“It’s clear the ‘red line’ drawn by President Obama has now been crossed. The time for passive engagement in this conflict must come to an end.

“It is in the vital national security interest of our nation to see Assad’s removal,” Rubio continued. “He is Iran’s closest ally in the region and a tyrant who has been murdering his own people for more than two years, while threatening regional stability. We must not allow Assad to continue violating all international norms by using these vile weapons and allowing Syria to descend further into chaos and instability. This will have disastrous consequences for US interests for decades to come.

“I urge President Obama to explain to Congress and the American people how he will ensure Syria’s chemical and biological weapons stockpiles are secured, how we’ll work with our allies to prevent further use of these deadly weapons, and what additional measures he is ready to take to follow through on his previous statements,” the senator said.

Policy disputes and individual options

April 26, 2013

Policy disputes and individual options | Jerusalem Post – Blogs.

This week’s headlines have featured two separate quarrels of the kind that fascinate policy mavens, even while they cause us simpletons to scratch our heads and wonder who, if anyone, is right.

One of them–or actually two separate but closely related quarrels–is of the kind that stirs interest and concern among those who worry about an escalation of Middle East tensions.
Another was more purely Israeli, although for a short time it caused problems for some thousands wanting to come or leave.
The highest profile quarrels pit Israeli and American analysts and politicians against one another around hot button weapons of mass destruction being or not being used by Syria, and close to being developed or not so close in Iran.
Two of Israel’s highest ranking military intelligence analysts–one in active service and one retired–announced in public forums that Syrian forces had used poison gas against rebels and civilians, and that Iran has crossed Israel’s “red line” with respect to its development of nuclear weapons.
Americans are not so sure about either of those problems. The President himself had said that the United States could not tolerate Syrian use of poison gas or Iran’s creation of nuclear weapons. More recent official announcements from on high are that the United States cannot rely on any foreign government’s assessment of what is happening in Syria as a reason to act, and that its own analysis have yet to establish conclusively that Syria has used its forbidden weapons. Commentators are describing a “diplomatic incident” between Washington and Jerusalem, and the Prime Minister’s embarrassment that his chief intelligence official went public about Syrian gas during the visit of Defense Secretary Chuck Hagel.
Prominent during that visit was an airing of US and Israeli conceptions of what it would take to deal more forcefully with Iran. Israel is holding to a standard of Iran preparing the ingredients for a nuclear weapon, relevant to what the former head of military intelligence announced this week, while the US seems to be concerned only about the actual assembling of the ingredients into a deliverable weapon.
Among the events of Hagel’s visit was the announcement of a new arms agreement between Israel and the United States, including the eventual delivery of more tools of increased sophistication that will–in American terms–“assure Israel’s capacity to defend itself.” Local cynics view the same deal as the price the United States is paying for Israel’s cooperation, i.e. not acting against Iran without an American agreement that is not likely to come.
Some of those same cynics are saying that if the US is avoiding the obvious signs of Syrian use of poison gas, it is never likely to find “conclusive evidence” of Iran’s intentions and capacity with respect to nuclear weapons.
Other Israelis are wondering why anyone in their government is making an issue of Syria. Let the Syrians continue to kill themselves–who cares how–but keep the focus on the more serious problem of Iran.
Somewhere in the American calculations may be a memory of Israeli intelligence on Iraq. It was one of the sources that convinced George W. Bush that Iraq was close to having/using/developing weapons of mass destruction, including gas and nuclear. That was one of the reasons for the US invasion of 2003, which toppled Saddam but did not find what Israelis and others had described.
Of lesser interest to policy mavens fascinated by things military was an Israeli flap over open skies. The government approved an agreement with the European Union to a mutual deregulation of air traffic despite a strike of Israeli air carriers and a threatened strike of airport workers against all takeoffs and landings. Airline personnel claimed that they would lose out in competition with the richer and better connected European airlines, while government officials promoting the deal said that it would greatly increase tourism and provide many more jobs overall than might be lost by Israeli airlines becoming more efficient or succumbing to the competition..
Involved in the dispute were conflicting assessments about current realities and prospects. Government officials claimed that El Al was greatly overstaffed, and had to slim down. Labor officials asserted that El Al had more personnel per plane than European competitors because El Al did its own servicing of aircraft.
Several thousand Israelis and tourists wanting to leave the country or come to the country found themselves stranded, until the government agreed to the deal that commentators had said was obvious, i.e., to increase its payment of the costs of security (i.e., screening passengers above the standards applied elsewhere) that it demands of Israeli airlines.
Involved in open skies here and elsewhere are quarrels about the importance or threat of tourism.
For property developers and the people involved in hotels, tour buses, guiding, restaurants, airlines, and shopping, tourism is the holy grail of economic expansion.
It is something else for environmentalists and ordinary Israelis worried about the crowds in their small country, with its old cities, narrow streets,  and limited parking.
Elsewhere as well there are debates about excessive tourism spoiling sites for locals and tourists alike. The doubters employ the concept of “overbooking” to emphasize the garbage off-loaded by cruse liners and their inundation of scenic ports by day tourists, the competitive barking of guides to their groups, each in their own language at iconic sites, and the distortion of economic priorities in Third World countries blessed or cursed by tourist attractions. Neither Greece nor Italy are Third World, but there are limited pleasures visiting the Acropolis or Florence. Bangkok’s temples and canals are fascinating, but require a huge outlay in one’s tolerance of the traffic jams in getting to them. Africa’s animals make for great pictures, providing you succeed in cropping out the competing Land Rovers.
Israel’s government has mechanisms to balance demands for development and preservation, with limited satisfaction about the results. It is difficult to enjoy the Old City of Jerusalem while shuffling along with the crowds, but Acre is less crowded for those wanting to visit and shop in an old walled city, there is room on the Mediterranean beaches, the water is usually clean, there is likely to be a table at one of the Tel Aviv coffee houses, Eilat’s hotels provide air conditioned refuge from the heat, and the Galilee has decent roads and great sites, when not crowded during Israeli weeks of vacation (Passover and Succoth).
Perhaps the greatest problem associated with a treaty of peace with Palestinians and other Muslim countries is not defining borders and moving people here and there, but the flooding of  the country and especially Jerusalem with millions of Muslims who will be competing with millions of Christians and Jews at the same or very near by holy places.
Look out for yourself is the guiding principal.
Us pensioners should avoid traveling in high season. We have the government provided gas kits likely to be effective against whatever Syria sends against us. The bomb shelter downstairs should be sufficient when Iran retaliates, if Israel gives up on the US and does what it is threatening to do in response to the crossing of Bibi’s red line.
Hebrew University Political Science professor Ira Sharkansky evaluates the latest happenings in Israel.

Ex-Hezbollah leader: Iran told us to join Syrian war

April 26, 2013

Ex-Hezbollah leader: Iran told us to join Syrian war | JPost | Israel News.

By BLOOMBERG
04/25/2013 17:27
Disaffected former leader of terrorist group, Sobhi al-Tofaili, says Hezbollah split over involvement in Syria conflict.

Flags of Hezbollah, Assad's Syria

Flags of Hezbollah, Assad’s Syria Photo: REUTERS/Ali Hashisho

Iran pressed Hezbollah fighters to join the civil war in Syria to bolster President Bashar Assad’s armed struggle, according to Sobhi al-Tofaili, a disaffected former leader of the militant group.

The allegation, made on Lebanon’s Future Television, echoes similar comments by George Sabra, interim leader of the Syrian National Coalition, at a press conference in Turkey on April 22.

The former Hezbollah secretary said that at least 138 militiamen had died in Syria and scores had been wounded. The organization is split over its involvement, he said.

Lebanese Sunni Muslim clerics called on April 23 for a holy war to defend co-religionists in Syria from Hezbollah, amid concern that Lebanon is being sucked into its neighbor’s increasingly sectarian conflict. Lebanon’s President Michel Suleiman dismissed the calls. The uprising against Assad began with peaceful protests in March 2011 that turned violent when the government forces turned their guns on demonstrators.

“Hezbollah fighters have crossed the border and started to kill our people to support the murderer Bashar Assad,” Sabra said at a televised press conference. The group is “occupying Syrian villages, murdering civilians, preventing them from peacefully expressing their views.”

Hezbollah has denied it is backing Assad in the fighting, saying it’s helping Lebanese Shi’ites living in Syrian border towns and villages to defend themselves against rebel assaults. It has remained largely silent amid a wave of recent accusations by Syrian opposition leaders and Lebanese groups about its involvement in Syria.

“Hezbollah has not denied the claims and does not appear very concerned about how its involvement will be interpreted,” said Paul Salem, director of the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace’s Middle East Center in Beirut.

After the protests evolved into armed conflict and the al- Nusra Front’s involvement was highlighted, both Iran and Hezbollah had a “convenient excuse — that they are fighting against militant jihadis and not an Arab Spring uprising,” he said.

They may have concluded that “Assad is not about to fall and that they’re not on the Titanic but on the side that’s going to be around for a long time,” he said.

Syria’s conflict is rapidly deteriorating and is threatening the stability of its neighbors, particularly Lebanon, Susan Rice, the US ambassador to the United Nations, told the Security Council Wednesday.

“Hezbollah not only continues to undermine Lebanon from within by violating the government’s policy of disassociation, but actively enables Assad to wage war on the Syrian people by providing money, weapons, and expertise to the regime in close coordination with Iran,” she said.

In a letter to Hezbollah chief Hassan Nasrallah from Moaz al-Khatib, former SNC leader, he said: “Is it satisfying to you that the Syrian regime shells it citizens with fighter planes and Scud missiles?

‘‘I demand that you withdraw all Hezbollah troops from Syria,’’ al-Khatib said.

Analysis: Hezbollah drone a dangerous publicity stunt

April 26, 2013

Analysis: Hezbollah drone a dangerous publicity stunt | JPost | Israel News.

LAST UPDATED: 04/25/2013 23:53
Sending a drone into Israeli air space is meant to remind the Lebanese public that Hezbollah is still defined by its jihad against Israel and not by its large-scale and bloody involvement in the Syrian civil war.

IAF shoots down UAV that entered Israeli airspace

IAF shoots down UAV that entered Israeli airspace Photo: IDF Spokesman’s Office

Hezbollah’s attempt – likely Iranian-backed – to fly a drone into Israeli air space on Thursday is a dangerous publicity stunt designed to distract attention from its large-scale and bloody involvement in the Syrian civil war.

As the Shi’ite terror organization sends more and more fighters to kill Sunni Syrian rebels, and to try and save the regime of Bashar Assad, it is struggling to justify its involvement to Sunni Lebanese, who are growing increasingly outraged and are openly challenging Hezbollah’s role in their country and the region. Sending a drone into Israeli air space is meant to remind the Lebanese public that Hezbollah is still defined by its jihad against Israel.

Despite being an exercise in PR, the drone incident remains a serious provocation – an attempted breach of Israeli air space near Haifa, home to sensitive petrochemical plants that Hassan Nasrallah has threatened to target.

The air force’s swift reaction represents a significant improvement from the October drone infiltration, when Hezbollah managed to fly a drone deep into Israeli territory, before it was shot down. The lessons of last year’s incident have been learned well, judging by the early detection and interception of the hostile craft on Thursday.

The navy will now begin the tedious task of hunting for the drone’s pieces in the Mediterranean Sea, and the IDF will seek to answer questions such as: What type of drone was involved? Did it managed to record video footage, and could it transmit any of that footage to a base station in Lebanon in real time? The drone is only the most recent and visible aspect of a covert war raging between Iran and Hezbollah on one side, and Israel on the other.

Hezbollah agents, together with Iranian Quds Force members, continue trying to attack Israeli civilians and state targets overseas.

On occasion, there are unexplained blasts at Hezbollah weapons storage areas in southern Lebanon, as occurred last December, when a mysterious explosion tore through a suspected Hezbollah weapons depot at Tair Harfa in southern Lebanon.

Further away, Iran’s nuclear centrifuges continue to spin. All of these arenas – Lebanon, Syria, Iran (and Gaza) are interlinked.

These are tense times, and any miscalculated step can trigger a wider confrontation.