WarSclerotic

Iran crossed the red line Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu set in his speech at the UN in September, former military intelligence head Amos Yadlin said on Tuesday.

“By the summer, Iran will be a month or two away from a decision about the bomb,” the current director of iNSS said at a conference in Tel Aviv. According to Yadlin, a decision will made after the Iranian presidential elections in June.

Once Iran reaches this stage, “it will be very hard to stop Iran,” Yadlin said. “If the US, Iran and Israel all stand behind its announcements, then we are on a course of collision towards the end of the year,” he added.

According to Yadlin, Tehran already has enough 3.5% enriched uranium for six bombs and nearly enough 20% enriched uranium for one bomb. “They have no problem reverting back what they allegedly turned to nuclear fuel. Within a week it could be turned into nuclear material for a bomb,” he warned.

The Arak nuclear reactor would become operational by 2014, he said.

Yadlin stressed that without a drastic change in the sanctions placed on the Islamic Republic, Iran would continue buying time and expanding its nuclear program. “There will be no agreement if there is no motivation to reaching an agreement,” he said.

He added that the credibility of the American military action is a condition to the success of the negotiations. “This credibility will be achieved if the US aims a precise strike to stop the Iranian nuclear program and show that it can deal with the escalation that would follow this strike.”

Prime Minister Netanyahu drew a “red line” for Iran in a speech he made at the UN General Assembly in September. The prime minister said that red line should be before they have stockpiled enough low-grade and medium-grade uranium to begin working on high-grade uranium and a nuclear detonator.

“Iran has completed the first stage. It took them many years, but they completed it and they’re 70 percent of the way there,” the prime minister said. He said Tehran was well into the second stage, and would be able to move onto the final stage by next spring or summer.

Iran has kept its stockpile of uranium enriched to 20 percent below 250 kilograms, the amount that would be needed, if further processed to weapon grades fuel, to make one nuclear bomb, according to a report by the Wall Street Journal. The 250 kilogram mark was noted as the “red line” for a military strike which Iran should not be allowed to pass by Netanyahu in his speech.

Earlier this month, Iranian Supreme Leader Ayayollah Ali Khamenei has reportedly  decided to rein in the country’s nuclear progress in order to avoid passing Netanyahu’s “red line.”

Syrian President Bashar Assad used chemical weapons – likely nerves gas – on armed rebels in the civil war raging in his country, the head of the research division at military intelligence Brig.-Gen. Itay Brun told a defense conference at Tel Aviv University on Tuesday.

Brun told said the iNSS conference that there is increasing use of chemical weapons in Syria, an

“There’s a huge arsenal of chemical weapons in Syria. Our assessment is that the [Assad] regime has used and is using chemical weapons,” Brun said.

Photos of victims showing foam coming out of their mouths and contracted pupils were signs deadly gas had been used, Brun said. “To the best of our understanding, there was use of lethal chemical weapons. Which chemical weapons? Probably Sarin.”

Brun also warned that the use of weapons of mass destruction could be interpreted by the Assad regime as a legitimate act as a result of the lack of any response from the world to it.

“How this develops is a good question. We need to be very concerned with the fact chemical weapons might reach less responsible hands that don’t consider the consequences of their actions,” he cautioned.

Last week, Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu told the BBC that Israel is prepared to defend itself should Syrian President Bashar Assad’s chemical weapons and anti-aircraft weapons fall into the wrong hands.

“The main arms of concern to us are the arms that are already in Syria – these are anti-aircraft weapons, these are chemical weapons and other very, very dangerous weapons that could be game changers,” he said.

Netanyahu warned these weapons could change the balance of power in the Middle East, and stressed that it is not just in Israel’s interest to stop these weapons from getting into the wrong hands, but it’s in other countries’ interest as well.

Despite this, Netanyahu echoed past statements that Israel doesn’t seek to interfere in the Syrian civil war.

There have been three alleged chemical weapons attacks – the one near Aleppo and another near Damascus, both in March, and one in Homs in December. The rebels and Assad’s government blame each other for all of them.

The Syrian government is only willing to allow the UN to investigate what it claims was a rebel chemical attack near Aleppo last month. The opposition has blamed Assad’s forces for that strike and also wants the UN team to look into other alleged chemical attacks by the government.

Reuters contributed to this report.