Tensions build on Israel-Syria border – The Washington Post.

MAJDAL SHAMS, Golan Heights — The road to the border near Buq’ata, a Druze town in the Israeli-occupied Golan Heights, is littered with fly-tipped rubbish and leads past vineyards and signs warning of land mines.

At the end is a shelf-like ridge that falls steeply down to a verdant plain in neighboring Syria, from which residents sometimes come to watch the civil war.

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Tensions build on Israel-Syria border

John Reed | Financial Times 6:23 PM ET

40 years after cease-fire, Israelis in the Golan Heights watch as Syria’s civil war edges ever closer.

“When there’s action, people phone each other up and come here,” said Ezat Mdali, a civil engineer who lives in Majdal Shams on the Israeli side of the border but, like many Druze here, holds Syrian nationality.

Residents of the area say they hear shooting or shelling from over the border nearly every day. A flare-up of fighting in March was intense enough to cause windows to shake in towns on the Israeli side.

For four decades after Israel and Syria agreed on a cease-fire, the border — policed by about 1,000 U.N. troops in a demilitarized zone — was quiet. Rusting hulks of tanks in the area are tangible reminders of the fighting there in the 1973 Yom Kippur war.

But now, Israeli military officials and analysts say, the northern border is more tense than at any time since the cease-fire was signed.

President Bashar al-Assad’s weakening regime has pulled out forces from the border region to defend the nearby Syrian capital, Damascus, they say, leaving the Syrian Golan largely under the control of opposition forces, some of which are thought to be jihadist groups.

“Right now the target is to fight the Assad regime, but it’s just a question of time that they can change their target and escalate on the border with Israel,” said Kobi Marom, an independent Israeli analyst who lives in the Golan Heights and has spent much of his career in the Israel Defense Forces (IDF). “They could launch rockets or could penetrate the fence and take one of the Israeli communities sitting on the border.”

Gunfire and mortar rounds launched from Syria have hit the Israeli side of the border, although it is unclear whether they came from rebel or government forces. The IDF has returned fire five times since November.

“We see a deterioration of the general chain of command,” said Lt. Col. Peter Lerner, an IDF spokesman. “That’s why we’ve had a number of incidents from people who took the initiative and shot a couple of rounds.”

Troops loyal to Assad are still present across the border, Israeli officials say, but there are fewer than before because the regime is shifting its forces elsewhere.

“You have rebels fighting for democracy on the one side, and on the other you have jihadists who are fighting a holy war between Shia and Sunni,” Lerner said. “This is what we are watching.”

The proximity of the border with Lebanon, which sits on the other side of Mount Hermon, is also a concern. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and other Israeli officials have repeatedly warned about the threat of chemical or other weapons reaching the militant Lebanese Shiite movement Hezbollah.

The Damascus government has used the Lebanon border and Hezbollah to put pressure on Israel in the past, and in February, Western officials say, its air force struck an arms convoy in an attack Israel has never officially acknowledged or denied.

Disarray in the U.N. Disengagement Observer Force is causing further anxiety in Israel, although officials are not voicing it openly. Japan and Croatia this year said they were withdrawing their troops from the mission. Austria, which supplies the biggest number of troops to the force, said last week that it might have to withdraw them if the European Union lifts its arms embargo against Syria, a move it said could jeopardize their safety.

In March, 21 peacekeepers from the Philippines were kidnapped by a Syrian group calling itself the Yarmouk Martyrs Brigade. The abductees were later released.

Israel has been reinforcing its border fence and will be finished by July. Because of the worsening situation in Syria, it is replacing the reserve troops it traditionally uses in the Golan with regular forces.

The Israeli army also says it has offered medical treatment to about a dozen rebels who made it across the border.

However, it denies reports in the media and by local residents that it has established a field clinic for wounded Syrians on the border. Israeli army officials have also privately discounted reports that they are making contingency plans to establish a buffer zone inside Syria if the security vacuum there worsens.

For now, U.N. vehicles still patrol the cease-fire line, which cuts through communities, leaving families and friends separated in towns on either side. After the region was divided, the area was called the “shouting hill” because families communicated by megaphone. With the advent of the Internet, people are now in touch with their relatives via e-mail or Facebook.

In Druze villages inside Israel, though, the Syrian war has further divided families, with some supporting Assad.

“There’s no space for discussion any more,” Mdali said. “There are brothers who won’t talk to each other.”

Israel Hayom | Eilat hit with two rockets: What happened to Iron Dome?.

To Prevent War With Iran, Give Israel Fuel Tankers – Andrew Burt and Jordan Chandler Hirsch – The Atlantic.

A U.S. Air Force KC-135 Stratotanker assigned to the 100th Air Refueling Wing prepares to fuel Royal Danish Air Force F-16C Fighting Falcon aircraft on February 1, 2012. (Reuters)

Western diplomats departed Almaty, Kazakhstan recently declaring that yet another round of negotiations with Iran over ending its nuclear program had failed. But the problem for the United States isn’t just preventing Iran from developing nuclear weapons — it’s also preventing Israel from attacking prematurely. And although Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has publicly accepted American timelines, the dispute between Israel and the United States will erupt again. And no amount of phone calls or summits can resolve it.

That’s because the clash between the two countries isn’t just about intentions–both have pledged to stop Iran from acquiring nuclear weapons, if necessary through force. Instead, it’s about military capability. Israel, with its limited arsenal, must attack before Iran produces enough nuclear material to build a bomb. Because Israeli military capabilities would be significantly stretched in a strike on Iranian nuclear facilities, every strike option carries a risk that Israel will only partially destroy its targets. To succeed, it may need to attempt a follow-up attack or even a series of them. All of this requires time, something Israel is running out of.

If Israel decides to strike Iran, its lack of tankers will be a significant handicap.

Meanwhile, the United States, with weapons such as the long-range B-2 stealth bomber and massive bunker-busting bombs, can afford to wait. Despite the pleasantries of President Obama’s recent visit to Israel, this discrepancy reappeared in the Jerusalem press conference between Obama and Netanyahu, with Netanyahu reiterating the need to strike Iran before it passes the so-called zone of immunity — the point at which an attack would no longer derail the nuclear program. This tension has both exposed Israel’s limitations and undermined U.S. credibility, weakening diplomacy and emboldening Iran. All of this, ironically, increases the odds for war. The only way to solve the problem is to level the playing field: the United States should give Israel air refueling tankers, increasing its odds of destroying Iran’s nuclear program in the event of an attack and thereby giving it more time to wait.

Refueling tankers are one of the most important advantages the United States has over Israel if it came to an attack on Iran. Any Israeli operation against Iran would severely strain its air force. Over 1,000 nautical miles separate Israel from its furthest targets in Iran, and Israeli jets would need to refuel approximately halfway. Tankers would play a critical role in any such attack.

The problem is that Israel doesn’t have enough of them. It has roughly 10 tankers in its fleet, all of which it would need to deploy in a strike on Iran–presenting the Israelis with a major operational vulnerability. The loss of one or two tankers could threaten the entire mission. If Israel decides to strike Iran, its lack of tankers will be a significant handicap.

All of this means that Israel must decide whether to attack much earlier than the United States. The riskier the operation is for Israel, the less time it has to wait, as it will seek a time buffer in case more strikes are needed or the operation fails entirely. And with Iran reportedly expanding its nuclear production sites, Israel will likely need more tankers to hit additional targets. Israel could rely on Washington to act at the last moment, and this is what American officials are hoping for. But Israelis recognize that the Iranian nuclear program poses a lesser danger to the United States — making them less likely to rely on American goodwill.

This raises the second problem with American efforts to thwart Iran’s nuclear program: credibility. Despite Obama’s vows to prevent Iran from obtaining a nuclear bomb, all signs indicate Iran has yet to take them seriously. And for good reason. War weary and budget strapped, the United States would face the prospect of entering its third major Middle Eastern war in the last decade — one that could severely damage the already-weakened global economy. That daunting scenario likely explains why administration officials have not only questioned the odds of a successful Israeli strike but expressed doubts about the impact of a U.S. attack as well. But the best chance for Iran to relinquish its nuclear program is if it truly fears the use of force.

The United States thus finds itself in a bind: to convince the Iranians to abandon their nuclear program, it must bolster the credibility of its threat to attack. Given the uncertainties about its intentions, the question is whether it can do so without actually resorting to force. But such is not the case for Israel: Tehran hardly doubts Jerusalem’s seriousness. This past October, the New York Times reported that in 2007 and 2008, the Iranian military so feared an Israeli strike that it accidentally fired on civilian airliners and even one of its own military aircraft. And just recently, the Wall Street Journal discovered that Iran has slowed its nuclear program to remain within Israel’s red line until its elections in June. The Iranians merely doubt Israel’s ability to demolish its nuclear facilities, and therefore the credibility of Israel’s threats to do so.

By giving Israel refueling tankers, the United States can escape its bind. Jerusalem would be better equipped to ferry its air force to Iran and remain airborne long enough to attack an increasing number of targets. This would give Israel a greater margin of error, allowing it to wait longer before striking and placing it more fully on Washington’s timeline. Meanwhile, Tehran would take the potential consequences of an Israeli assault more seriously, so transferring the tankers would thus boost U.S. credibility. Empowering Israel, the country most likely to use force, would demonstrate that the United States is willing to risk war to stop Iran’s nuclear program. With Israel in possession of sufficient air tankers, the Iranian regime would have the strongest incentive yet to end its nuclear drive.

The hope, of course, is that neither the United States nor Israel will need to resort to force. Diplomatic niceties can calm the dispute between Israel and the United States over Iran temporarily, but only increasing Israel’s capabilities can buy real time and credibility. By realigning Washington and Jerusalem, it offers the surest means of avoiding preemptive war.

By Zachary Keck

via Iran’s Nuclear Submarine Gambit | Flashpoints.

For some time now a pattern has developed in the standoff between Iran and the United States in which the U.S. and its allies strengthen sanctions against Tehran, which responds by making advances in its nuclear program. The increased sanctions and nuclear advances are then used by each side as bargaining chips in negotiations.

In the meantime the standoff has become relatively stable in the short term as Iran has carefully limited its stockpile of 20 percent enriched uranium and has not enriched to higher levels, while the U.S. has not acted on its military threats and has sought to constrain Israel from exercising its own military option.

In the last 24 hours two new factors have emerged that could potentially derail this stability over the next few years.

The first and most serious one was an announcement by the head of the Iranian Atomic Energy Organization, Fereydoon Abbasi-Davani, that Iran may seek nuclear submarines in the future. This is significant because nuclear submarines require nuclear fuel that is enriched to anywhere between 45 and 90 percent levels, the latter being bomb-grade.

“At present, we have no enrichment plan for purity levels above 20 percent, but when it comes to certain needs, for example, for some ships and submarines, if our researchers need to have a stronger underwater presence, we will have to make small engines which should be fueled by 45 to 56 percent enriched uranium,” Abbasi-Davani said on Tuesday.

The only potential bright spot is that Abbasi-Davani said that future nuclear submarines would be designed to run on the low-end of the nuclear spectrum. Still there is no question that a decision by Iran to move beyond 20 percent uranium would be seen as a major escalation in the ongoing standoff, and one that might prompt Israel or the U.S. to act on their military threats.

It should be noted that it is quite possible (probably even likely) that Abbasi-Davani is bluffing. Iranian officials in the past have suggested Tehran may someday want nuclear submarines, and despite the relative stability of the current standoff Iran has clear interests in ending it given that it is the side suffering economically from sanctions. Thus making this announcement could very well be aimed at forcing the West’s hand in negotiations. This would be consistent with Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei’s recent warnings that Iran will not negotiate simply for the sake of negotiating.

At the same time, the nuclear submarine gambit would be consistent with the trajectory of the Islamic Republic of Iran’s nuclear program to date. Specifically, Iran has made incremental progress on its nuclear program without technically going beyond what non-nuclear weapon states that are in good standing have a right to do under the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty. It has justified making these advances on civilian grounds but the same technologies have nuclear weapon applications. While nuclear submarines are not for civilian purposes they still allow Iran to deny it has ambitions to acquire nuclear weapons. Thus, in making this announcement Tehran is reminding the U.S. and its allies that if the current standoff continues, it can take actions that put it remarkably close to actually having a nuclear weapon while maintaining some plausible deniability.

This was not the only bad news Western policymakers received on Tuesday regarding Iran’s nuclear program with the rest coming from the International Monetary Fund’s (IMF) World Economic Outlook. In the report the IMF forecasts that, although Iran’s economy shrunk by 1.9 percent in 2012, and is expected to shrink an additional 1.3 percent this year, it will begin growing again by 2014 starting at a rate of 1.1 percent. Furthermore, the IMF believes Iran will continue to maintain an account surplus, which significantly reduces the possibility that the Islamic Republic will encounter a balance-of-payment crisis that could undermine its ability to govern.

Although Iran has become more secretive about economic data as international sanctions against it have increased, it has continued to cooperate with the IMF, leading some to believe the IMF data on Iran’s economy are the most accurate available. If the IMF is correct in its forecast, Iranian leaders have every reason to believe that their economic situation will not get much worse than it currently is, and will in a short while begin improving.

In essence, Iran has threatened to strengthen its hand relative to the U.S. and its allies at the same time the Western powers’ hand has been shown to be weakening. The U.S. still has a number of options available short of military strikes to strengthen its bargaining position— such as additional actions to sabotage Iran’s nuclear program, deepening its involvement in Syria, and/or imposing a full economic blockade on Iran— but many of these carry risks and costs which the U.S. has thus far not demonstrated a willingness to bear. In any case, it is far from clear that any of these options would have much impact on Iran’s nuclear program.

Hagel heads to Israel Sunday on first overseas trip | The Times of Israel.

WASHINGTON — Defense Secretary Chuck Hagel said he will be traveling to Israel in a few days, his first trip to the Mideast ally since he took over at the Pentagon.

He is expected to head to Israel on Sunday, following on the heels of President Barack Obama’s trip last month and three visits by Secretary of State John Kerry, as the two allies work to thwart Iran’s nuclear drive, grapple with Syria’s bloody instability, and bid to restart Israeli-Palestinian peace talks..

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Hagel mentioned the trip during congressional testimony on Tuesday as lawmakers pressed him on whether the United States would support Israel if it launches a strike against Iran. Hagel told a House panel that such a policy decision would be made by Obama.

Israel fears that Iran is close to producing a nuclear weapon. Tehran insists that the program is for peaceful purposes.

During his contentious confirmation hearing, Hagel faced tough questions on whether he was sufficiently supportive of Israel. He insisted that he was, despite previous statements and votes while he served in the Senate.

Senators Approve Resolution to Assist Israel – Middle East – News – Israel National News.

The U.S. Senate Foreign Relations Committee adopted on Tuesday a resolution which stipulates that the U.S. will assist Israel if it is forced to take action against Iran.

The resolution, Senate Resolution 65, was introduced last month by Senator Lindsey Graham (R-South Carolina) and was co-sponsored by 15 Senators, including Robert Menendez (D-New Jersey), Marco Rubio (R-Florida), Kelly Ayotte (R-New Hampshire), John Cornyn (R-Texas) and Chuck Schumer (D-New York).

It states that the United States has a vital national interest in and unbreakable commitment to, ensuring the existence, survival, and security of the State of Israel; reaffirms the United States support for Israel’s right to self-defense; and urges that if Israel is compelled to take military action in self-defense, the United States will stand with Israel and provide diplomatic, military, and economic support in its defense of its territory, people, and existence.

It also states that U.S. policy is to halt Iranian nuclear ambitions. Senate Resolution 65 gained the support of 70 of the 100 senators.

A statement issued by AIPAC following the vote said, “The Senate Foreign Relations Committee has sent a very clear and enormously important message of solidarity with Israel against the Iranian nuclear threat—which endangers American, Israeli, and international security. AIPAC urges the full Senate to act expeditiously to adopt the resolution.”

On Tuesday, Defense Minister Moshe Yaalon said that “the regime in Tehran does not see the western world as determined to stop the nuclear project, so it allows itself to continue with its plans.

“Only putting the Iranian regime before the dilemma of ‘bomb, or survival’ will lead to the end of the project,” he said.

“The world must take the lead in the standoff with Iran, but Israel must prepare for the possibility that it will need to protect itself alone,” he added.

Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu also referred to the Iranian nuclear threat on Tuesday, comparing it to the recent behavior of North Korea. He made the comments during a reception for foreign diplomats.

“We have recently seen the results of a wild regime that possesses nuclear weapons,” he said. “We have also seen that heavy sanctions are not always effective against a sufficiently determined regime.

“Therefore, we have an obligation to ensure that this will not happen again. If Iran achieves nuclear weapons, this will change the world. When I said this in the past, many listened and agreed, but now it is possible to agree from an additional perspective, and I think that all governments must do everything possible in order to ensure that this danger is not realized,” said Netanyahu.

Iran test-fires land-to-sea missile in Gulf.

DUBAI:  Iran test-fired a new land-to-sea ballistic missile in the Gulf, a senior official said yesterday, days before an annual ceremony meant to showcase its military muscle at a time of rising tension with the West over its nuclear activity.

Israel has publicly warned of possible air strikes on Iran’s nuclear sites if Tehran does not resolve Western suspicions it is developing nuclear weapons know-how under cover of a declared civilian atomic energy programme, something Tehran denies.

Iran has threatened to hit Israel and US bases in the region if it comes under attack, and also to block the Strait of Hormuz, the neck of the Gulf through which 40 percent of the world’s seaborne oil exports pass.

“The defence ministry has been able to test a new missile in the Persian Gulf which has a high ability to hit targets,” General Majid Bokaei, Iran’s deputy defence minister, was quoted as saying by the state news agency Irna, which described the missile as a ballistic missile.

“This new missile, which has been equipped with a surface-to-surface missile system, exits the atmosphere after being launched, re-enters it at high speed, and completely destroys the target vessel or warship.”

Bokaei did not say when the missile was tested or give a specific indication of its range. “When this missile was tested, all the enemies’ destroyers and ships retreated from near our borders,” he said, according to Irna.

The Islamic Republic will mark its National Army Day on April 18, an occasion meant to celebrate its armed forces and likely unveil military advances.

Iran often announces new weapons achievements, although these are difficult to verify independently.

In August it said it had test-launched a more accurate short-range missile capable of hitting land and sea targets within a range of around 300km.

Pieter Wezeman, a senior researcher at the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI), called the announcement another example of Iran flaunting new military muscle without providing proof.

Reuters

US troops sent to Jordan to counter Syrian attack on kingdom.

US troops sent to Jordan to counter Syrian attack on kingdom

DEBKAfile Special Report April 17, 2013, 10:23 PM (GMT+02:00)

Tags:  Jordan   US military action   Barack Obama   Bashar Assad   Chuck Hagel 

US 1st Armored Division

 

US Defense Secretary Chuck Hagel announced Wednesday, April 17, that 200 troops of the US 1st Armored Division had been ordered to deploy in Jordan. debkafile’s military sources report that they are being sent on arrival to the north and ranged on the Jordanian-Syrian border.
According to the Pentagon statement, the force will give the United States the ability to “potentially form a joint task force for military operations, if ordered.”

The new deployment will include communications and intelligence specialists, who will assist the Jordanians and “be ready for military action” if President Barack Obama orders it.

Small US units, mainly special forces and special groups trained for chemical warfare, have been have been quietly present in Jordan for the past year. The new deployment makes the US military presence official.
debkafile’s Washington sources disclose that President Obama ordered the new deployment to the kingdom when he discovered that Syrian President Bashar Assad was about to publicly and sharply condemn Jordan’s King Abdullah in a special Syrian TV broadcast Wednesday night and accuse him of responsibility for sending hundreds of armed fighters into Syria to oppose the regime.
Assad was also expected to warn the US and the West that they would regret their support for al Qaeda groups fighting with the rebels against his government.
In Washington and Amman, the forthcoming diatribe by Assad against the king was viewed as the opening shot for a presidential order to the Syrian army to launch an offensive against the Hashemite Kingdom.
debkafile’s military sources report that if full-scale war were to erupt between US troops and the Jordanian Army, on one side, and the Syrian army, on the other, Israel and the IDF would almost certainly become involved.

‫מטח רקטות נורה לאילת, אין נפגעים‬‎ – YouTube.

Two rockets hit Eilat; no casualties reported – Diplomacy & Defense – Israel News | Haaretz Daily Newspaper.

Police order residents to stay indoors; Iron Dome missile defense system may have malfunctioned.

Two rockets hit Israel’s southernmost city of Eilat on Wednesday, as residents reported at least two explosions in the south of the city. Police began searching for rocket debris.

Police said so far there are no reports of casualties or damage.

An Eilat resident told Army Radio he took shelter in the stairwell, after hearing two sirens go off. One rocket reportedly hit a courtyard.

Police have ordered residents to stay indoors. Airspace over the city has been closed off.

The mayor, Meir Yitzhak Halevy, told Army Radio that the rockets, apparently fired from Egypt’s Sinai peninsula, struck open areas.

Army Radio said there were reports that two rockets had also hit the neighboring Jordanian city of Aqaba.

The Iron Dome system deployed outside Eilat last month may have malfunctioned or had been unable to lock onto the rockets.

Last August, an Iron Dome anti-missile system battery was positioned outside the city after Grad rockets were fired at Eilat.

Deploying the battery of rocket interceptors near Eilat was part of a process of testing the active defense system all over the country.

IDF Spokesman said at the time: “The Iron Dome system is in a process of testing, part of which involves positioning a battery from time to time in various locations around the country. As part of this program, the [system] is being deployed for testing near Eilat.”