Archive for March 2013

Tough love from the President who wants to ‘throw Israel under a bus’

March 22, 2013

Tough love from the President who wants to ‘throw Israel under a bus’ – Obama visits Israel Israel News | Haaretz.

Obama’s challenge to Israel’s conventional wisdom was coated in support and sympathy. After this visit, it will be much harder for Obama’s rivals to claim that he has Israel’s worst interests at heart.

By | Mar.22, 2013 | 2:31 AM | 21
Obama speaks in the Convention Center in Jerusalem

Obama speaks in the Convention Center in Jerusalem. Photo by AFP

One can only speculate what history might have looked like if United States President Barack Obama had made his “Jerusalem Speech” on June 5, 2009, immediately after his “Cairo Speech”, and how the Middle East would have developed if his attempt to turn a page in U.S. relations with the Arab world had been accompanied by the kind of effort to touch the hearts of the Israeli public that Obama made in Jerusalem on Thursday.

Because there’s never been quite such a speech by any U.S. president: “dugri” and direct, admonishing words wrapped in thick layers of support and understanding, sympathy and concern, “tough love” as it was originally intended. The promos from the White House that had built up the speech as the centerpiece of the entire visit, turned out, in retrospect, to be grossly understated.

There wasn’t one Israeli button that Obama didn’t push during the speech and throughout his entire visit: from Holocaust to redemption, anxiety to bravery, victimhood to victory, ancient rights to start-up nation. He embraced Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, complimented his wife, adopted his children and commemorated his hero brother, all in an effort to wipe the slate clean and start anew, as far as possible. He threatened Iran, warned Syria, denounced Hezbollah, criticized Hamas and even tried to get Mahmoud Abbas to come down from the tree of a settlement freeze (which Obama had caused him to climb in the first place).

And he did all of this only as a prologue, a warm up, a pregame show before the main event, which turned out be just a few paragraphs from a long speech that he made to a few hundred students in Jerusalem’s Binyanei Ha’uma. Iran’s nuclear weapons and Syria’s chemical arsenal may have topped the agenda behind closed doors, but the high point of Obama’s public visit, its rhetorical and emotional crescendo, was reached in his challenging words about occupation, settlements and peace with the Palestinians, without which, he suggested, Israel’s future, security, and wellbeing are at risk.

Obama posed the kinds of questions that are hardly asked aloud anymore in the Israeli mainstream, swamped as it is in a steady stream of jingoistic, right-wing rhetoric, associated as it has become with people who are portrayed as loony liberals and self-hating leftists. He confronted the conventional wisdom that time is on our side and the status quo is working in our favor. He asked, blasphemy indeed, that Israelis try and look at the world through Palestinian eyes. He conducted, how ironic, the kind of values-based peace campaign which so-called center-left parties were so afraid of in the recent election campaign, because they thought it was toxic.

In this regard, Obama pulled a Bibi on Netanyahu on Thursday: he played on his home field, but for the rival team. Just as conservative Republicans in America would anoint Netanyahu as their leader in an instant, so too Obama yesterday became the resolute and persuasive spokesman that the Israeli center-left so desperately needs; one who could convince the public that his – or her – support for a two-state solution “along the known parameters” does not contradict his great love for Israel, but quite the contrary.

This is the real Obama, his acquaintances say, no masks and no makeup. Obama, “the Jewish President” as Peter Beinart described him in The Crisis of Zionism, whose formative years in public life were spent alongside liberal Zionist Jews who taught him of the Jewish battle for civil rights and of the Jewish belief in a just and enlightened Israel, before the occupation started taking its toll.

This is the same Obama whose naïve assumptions and mistakes borne of inexperience served as fodder for the nefarious jihad of hate and venom and plain old bigotry that his rivals and enemies have waged against him since his first election campaign, a foul and sometimes deranged campaign that is without precedent in the annals of relations between Jews, both American and Israelis, and American Presidents. This is the man who is routinely compared to the worst Jew-haters and baiters in history, from Pharaoh to Haman to Ahmadinejad, who is hell bent on “throwing Israel under the bus” as Mitt Romney repeatedly and recklessly asserted during the recent election campaign.

In this regard, Obama will henceforth be a much tougher rival for his right-wing conservative critics. After this visit, they will be hard pressed to convince many Israelis – and many American Jews, for that matter – that Obama is a rabid Israel-hater and Muslim sympathizer who has the country’s worst interests at heart. His admonitions, even if rejected, will be categorized under the Proverbs saying of “faithful are the wounds of a friend”.

And contrary to all the learned projections and analyses, it turns out that the U.S. fully intends to try and reignite the peace process, as Obama made clear in his Ramallah press conference with Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas. U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry, he said, “intends to spend significant time, effort, and energy in trying to bring about a closing of the gap between the parties”. This may not make much of an impression on cynical Israelis and Palestinians who expect nothing less than a full-court presidential press in a Camp David style summit, but in the real world, the announcement that America’s most senior cabinet secretary will personally engage in Middle East peace efforts amounts to a dramatic declaration of intent.

“I recognize that there are those who are not simply skeptical about peace, but question its underlying premise”, said Obama, in words that also apply to a large number of the ministers who have just taken up their seats around Israel’s cabinet table. Obama responded to the cynicism, frustration and resignation to eternal strife that have become the hallmark of modern Israelese with the American language of hope, optimism and belief in change with which he has won two elections.

It remain to be seen, of course, whether anything will be left of Obama’s brave efforts to confront Israelis with themselves after Air Force One takes off today, or whether he has indeed planted a seed of hope – or an illusion – that yes, we also can. Even if it’s 4 years too late.

Israel’s defense, political establishments understand Obama’s not bluffing on Iran

March 22, 2013

Israel’s defense, political establishments understand Obama’s not bluffing on Iran – Obama visits Israel Israel News | Haaretz.

He has warmed hearts here and gained trust, making up for a sour first impression left during his previous term as president. But despite all the gains, Obama still has to convince Netanyahu on a timetable for attacking Iran, as well as on issues of the West Bank and settlements.

 

By | Mar.22, 2013 | 12:50 PM |

 

U.S. President Barack Obama and Prime Minister Netanyahu on the tarmac at Ben-Gurion Airport

Barack Obama and Prime Minister Netanyahu on the tarmac at Ben Gurion International Airport. Photo by GPO

 

Both the defense and the political establishments in Israel believe U.S. President Barack Obama when he promises he will prevent Iran from acquiring nuclear weapons, even by use of force. Obama is now perceived here as a tough leader who doesn’t get queasy when it comes to taking tough measures. In spite of mounting criticism hurled at him with regard to human rights infringements, he is relentless in using unmanned drones to eliminate enemies of the U.S.

 

Leaders such as these, who prefer issuing operational orders over considering the Geneva Convention, are beloved by those who shape Israel’s defense policies. Clearly, they would love to take part in the White House’s forum on operations and strike missions, and would gladly welcome the president to similar forums at Defense Ministry headquarters in Tel Aviv.

 

In the U.S. military preparations are now underway for a possible strike against Iran, and this has proved to people here that Obama is reliable. In Israel, the details of the plans against Iran are known. Senior officials say that Obama shares their assessment that a nuclear Iran will lead to an overturn in the balance of power in the region, one that cannot be tolerated. Such a development would pose real threats to vital American interests. Obama, therefore, is preparing a military option while all the while striving for diplomatic negotiations with the Iranians.

 

But the U.S. and Israel don’t agree on everything. The primary sticking point is on the timetable, based on the discrepancies in the two nations’ military capabilities, as well as their vulnerability. The window of opportunity in which Israel can do significant damage to Iran is closing – if it isn’t shut already. The Americans have vastly superior means and can operate for longer periods. Obama, therefore, is in no hurry and wants to fully exploit diplomatic channels first.

 

Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, on the other hand, is concerned that Israel will stall so long that the opportunity will be missed, and at that point circumstances could change and Obama might no longer be able or willing to deliver on his promises. This is the core of their disagreement, which was evident in Obama’s public appearances while in Israel. Israel’s safety margins are considerably narrower, and it takes a lot of hugs and soothing remarks to keep the country quiet while Obama handles things.

 

Obama’s visit to Israel erased the bad impression he left here during his first term. His supportive speeches are similar to those made in the past by the greatest friends of Israel in Washington: Bill Clinton and George W. Bush.

 

Obama has impressive rhetorical skills and is able to charm audiences, as he amply demonstrated on his visit. At the official state dinner at President Shimon Peres’ residence, Obama was relaxed, full of humor, easily speaking without the teleprompter used in his official speeches. This was not the sour-faced president, sticking to prepared talking points, who met Netanyahu in the Oval Office on earlier occasions.

 

One can assume that the public warmth Obama exhibited toward “my friend Bibi” was also evident behind closed doors. Both of these men understand politics and know that the election campaigns are behind them, requiring them to work together from now on. Getting closer on a personal basis makes the relationship easier, as does the increased understanding over Iran.

But this doesn’t resolve their fundamental dispute over the West Bank, the occupation or the settlements. Netanyahu, according to close associates, is angry with the settlers who rejected him and supported his rival Naftali Bennett. It is doubtful whether this will make him embrace Obama’s call for peace, liberty and justice for the Palestinians. This is why the president appealed directly to the Israeli public, calling on it to bring about political change from below.

Obama, Israel and cyber warfare

March 22, 2013

Obama, Israel and cyber warfare | JPost | Israel News.

03/22/2013 00:26
The emerging conservative US position on cyber warfare could significantly impact Israel’s ability to act aggressively in the future.

Network defender at the US Air Force Space Command Network Operations & Security Center.

Network defender at the US Air Force Space Command Network Operations & Security Center. Photo: Rick Wilking/Reuters
If the US and Israel were patting themselves on the backs in the first round of cyber warfare, putting off questions about clear rules of engagement and grappling with possible international law limits, the party is over.

With US President Barack Obama in the neighborhood and several recent more defensive-minded moves being taken by Israel, it is worth noting a recent major leaked-announcement the US made about its cyber warfare rules of engagement, which will restrict its attack posture – and possibly Israel’s – in the future, if it hasn’t already.

Before jumping into the maze of cyber warfare law, it is important to state that how and to what extent the law of armed conflict applies and what rules there should be for cyber warfare is highly disputed.

In this vacuum, the US and Israel have launched highly aggressive and successful cyber warfare attacks on Iran, which have been largely credited for slowing down the country’s believed clandestine nuclear weapons program significantly and buying more time for sanctions and diplomacy to handle the issue.

That is why Obama’s new potential rules of restraint with cyber warfare are surprising and may significantly impact Israel’s ability to act aggressively in the future.

Unnamed senior US officials involved in developing the first set of US cyber warfare rules of engagement (essentially self-enforced legal limitations) leaked aspects of the new rules to The New York Times in February.

A few of the rules were highly significant because they impose restrictions not required by the laws of armed conflict.

First, the new rules of engagement state that almost no cyber attack can be carried out without presidential approval – though the law of armed conflict does not stipulate when approval for use of a particular weapon must be made by the head of state.

There are some very limited exceptions, such as shutting off an adversary’s air-defense network prior to an attack on that adversary, but the rule appears to be pretty broad.

Limiting the use of cyber warfare to presidential approval is an extremely restrictive approach, normally limited only to use of nuclear weapons, as getting presidential approval takes time – something that can have a serious cost in warfare.

It also sets a tone of taking a more conservative and defensive approach, sending the message to US cyber operatives that aggressiveness and results may not be as appreciated and may not even be supported if procedures are not carefully followed.

In addition to the more general rule, the US has specifically ruled out automatic counterattacks pending US efforts to more carefully determine where the attack emanated from.

Again, this restraint is not required per se by the law of armed conflict, which limits how aggressive US cyber warfare operatives can be and sends a message to adversaries of US restraint.

To the extent that experts are trying to decide how to apply the law of armed conflict to cyber warfare, attempts which have been hotly debated, the more careful “wait and see” approach of the new US rules seems to show a desire to find ways to employ the rule of proportionality.

The slower and less rushed the response is to an attack, the more likely it can be proportional.

Why does this more conservative approach matter to Israel? First, in most areas where Israel has received tolerant and patient legal reactions to more controversial warfare tactics, it has been where these tactics overlapped with newly aggressive American tactics.

In other words, few are ready to try to sanction or boycott the US and, when the US is fighting asymmetrical warfare in Afghanistan and Iraq using aggressive methods and interpretations of the laws of armed conflict, the pressure on Israel is also somewhat reduced.

Similarly, Israel might or might not have engaged in aggressive and offensive cyber warfare tactics against Iran without US cover, but US cover again certainly blunts criticism of such preemptive covert methods as violating international law.

But all of this can work against Israel if the US acts more conservatively.

Despite the success of the cyber warfare attacks on Iran, the US appears to be signaling a strategic retreat in offensive cyber warfare to a more defensive posture.

Now, if Israel goes it alone in a cyber warfare attack, it may have significantly less cover from legal criticism.

This is a problem because, while there is no accepted set of rules for cyber warfare law aside from the attempt to apply general rules of armed conflict like necessity and proportionality, any time that a state takes any preemptive action, whether using its air force, drones or cyber warfare, there is significant legal controversy.

This does not mean that Israel will not go it alone, but the likelihood of such offensive uses of cyber warfare – whether against Iran or others – is reduced, as there is always a diplomatic price and, with the International Criminal Court up and running, possibly a concrete legal price as well.

There are signs that Israel is following the US’s lead, with several recent statements by Israeli officials emphasizing its defensive cyber warfare capabilities instead of the offensive capabilities it was emphasizing not long ago.

In mid-February, The Jerusalem Post reported that the IDF has introduced its cyber defense control center into service. Staffed by 20 soldiers and operating 24/7, the center was put forth as a nerve center for defense, command and coordination abilities against cyber warfare attacks.

Then, last week, the Defense Ministry announced that it was setting up a new cyber body to support Israeli defense industries in coping with cyber threats, focusing on vulnerabilities from data storage, laptops and from use of Windows’s operating system, since many components are made abroad and can be tampered with.

What is the purpose of announcements of defensive cyber warfare capabilities, as opposed to the IDF and former defense minister Ehud Barak emphasizing offensive capabilities in June 2012 and after US-Israeli cyber success against Iran? It seems that the US, and possibly Israel as well, is trying to signal to China, Iran, North Korea and other possible attackers that they are willing to take their hand off the offensive cyber trigger and that their increased defensive capabilities may render attacks on the US and Israel less likely to succeed and not worth the cost and time investment.

International relations experts emphasize the importance of conveying a message convincingly to deter an adversary from attacking, such as the US’s public threats against the Soviet Union during the Cuban Missile Crisis.

Here, the US’s leaked announcement of its new restrictive cyber warfare rules of engagement, which appear in some areas to be even stricter than what the laws of armed conflict would require, may suggest a different tactic: alleviating adversaries’ insecurity about being attacked while changing the cost/benefit analysis of adversaries’ attacking.

Why have the US, and possibly Israel, decided to go more defensive? Put simply, the US and Israel, with their hyper hotwired economies and societies, have far more vulnerabilities and far more to lose than their adversaries do.

On Wednesday, the world took note of what appeared to be a North Korean cyber attack on hotwired South Korea.

In mid-February China was accused of hitting the US with cyber attacks, and both Israel and the US claim to have been victims recently – in Israel there are also allegations that many banks, telecoms and others have been hit but kept it quiet – with a noticeable increase after the attacks on Iran.

So one explanation may be that, with weak international law norms, a low probability of a multi-lateral treaty on reducing cyber attacks in sight and an increase in attacks on the US, the US is trying to unilaterally create new standards in the hope that its adversaries will reciprocate.

The timing of the announcement would support this theory, as, allegedly, the “top secret” rules of engagement have been discussed secretly for two years only to recently be partially leaked after a wave of attacks.

It may or may not be in Israel’s interest to do the same, but Israel has been emphasizing its defensive capabilities more and US military approaches have a way of impacting Israeli military behavior, sometimes whether it is desired or not.

Hezbollah slams Obama call for terrorist label

March 22, 2013

Hezbollah slams Obama call for terrorist label | JPost | Israel News.

By REUTERS

 

03/22/2013 12:20
Lebanon condemns US president’s call for Shi’ite group to be blacklisted, says accusations part of Israeli smear campaign.

Hezbollah supporters march in Beirut’s suburbs

Hezbollah supporters march in Beirut’s suburbs Photo: Archive

 

BEIRUT – Lebanon’s Hezbollah condemned on Friday a call by US President Barack Obama for the militant Shi’ite group to be designated a terrorist organization following a bomb attack on Israeli tourists in Bulgaria last year.

The European Union has so far resisted US and Israeli pressure to blacklist Hezbollah, but those demands are likely to increase after a court in Cyprus convicted a Hezbollah member on Thursday of plotting against Israeli interests on the island.

Obama said the killing of five Israeli tourists in July, which Bulgaria’s government blamed on Hezbollah, as well as its weapons stockpile and support for Syrian President Bashar Assad, were all grounds to take a stand against the group.

“Every country that values justice should call Hezbollah what it truly is – a terrorist organization,” he said in Jerusalem on Thursday. Washington has imposed sanctions on Hezbollah over the terrorism allegations.

Hezbollah says accusations against it are part of an Israeli smear campaign, while the European Union has resisted pressure to follow Washington’s lead, arguing this could destabilize Lebanon’s fragile government and add to regional instability.

The Islamist group said on Friday that Obama’s comments, made during a visit to Israel, showed that the United States was only interested in satisfying the Jewish state, and reinforced its own commitment to armed struggle.

“Hezbollah…can only express its strong condemnation of these American positions…which place Washington in the position of full partner to the (Israeli) enemy in all its crimes,” the group said in a statement.

The European Commission said two weeks ago it did not yet have sufficient evidence to make a decision about the group, which is also a powerful political force in Lebanon where its allies dominate the cabinet of Prime Minister Najib Mikati.

Hezbollah, established with Iranian support during Lebanon’s civil war and blamed for devastating suicide bombings on the US embassy and a Marines base in Beirut in 1983, fought an inconclusive 34-day conflict with Israel in 2006.

Israel killed 1,200 people in Lebanon during that war, most of them civilians, according to the United Nations. Hezbollah killed 160 Israelis, most of them soldiers on Lebanese soil. Both sides have said any future conflict would be deadlier.

The group accused Obama of taking Israel’s side by telling the Arab world to accept Israel as a Jewish state and make peace without accepting Arab demands such as the return of millions of Palestinian refugees and a halt to Israeli settlements.

Obama’s comments made him appear “like an employee of the Zionist entity rather than a top official in the administration of an independent country, the United States,” it said.

It said his remarks strengthened Hezbollah’s conviction that negotiations to resolve Arab-Israeli conflict were futile and showed that the correct approach was “resistance…as the only way to retrieve rights and dignity, freedom and independence.”

Obama, Netanyahu grant Iran another three months’ grace

March 22, 2013

Obama, Netanyahu grant Iran another three months’ grace.

DEBKAfile Exclusive Report March 22, 2013, 9:34 AM (GMT+02:00)

 

Iran red line disappears under the red carpet

 

President Barack Obama persuaded Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu in their talks in Jerusalem this week to give Tehran three more months to work through nuclear diplomacy with the P5+1 group of world powers (US, Russia, France, UK, China and Germany), debkafile discloses. After June, this format for resolving the Iranian nuclear issue will be judged to have run its course.

When the US president said “There is still time for diplomacy,” he added, “But Iran must know this. Time is not unlimited. Whatever time is left, there’s not a lot of time.”

When Netanyahu pointed out that the US and Israel might have different timetables and called for “a clear and credible threat of military action,” because “the clock is ticking,” Obama replied that all options were on the table and “We will do whatever is necessary to prevent Iran from getting the world’s worst weapons” – a pledge he repeated in his speech to Israeli students Thursday, March 21.
Talking to reporters Wednesday, the US president allowed, “Each country has to make its own decisions… when it comes to engaging in military action. And Israel is differently situated than the United States.”

This public exchange of views undoubtedly sparked Iranian leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei’s bellicose televised rejoinder Thursday: “At times the officials of the Zionist regime threaten to launch a military invasion,” he said. “But they themselves know that if they make the slightest mistake, the Islamic Republic will raze Tel Aviv and Haifa to the ground.”
In private, debkafile’s military and intelligence sources disclose, the American and Israeli leaders agreed to keep the diplomatic window open until after Iran’s presidential election on June 24. This does not necessarily mean that a joint US-Israeli attack on Iran’s nuclear facilities – or a lone Israeli military strike – will go forward the next day; only that a timeline for bringing the military option forward ahead of the diplomatic track is now before Tehran.

Obama explained to Netanyahu that he owed Khamenei the freedom to conduct Iran’s presidential election campaign without a bludgeon hanging over his head, in return for the same courtesy the Iranian leader afforded him in the run-up to his own re-election last November. In the campaign for his candidate, said the president, Khamenei can’t afford to show weakness by making concessions on the national nuclear program. After that, Obama trusts he will be more flexible.
All in all, on one pretext or another, Tehran has been able to shake off any “credible threat of military action” to curb its nuclear program for a decade or more. And there is no guarantee that things will be different after June 24.

What Obama Said About Iran

March 22, 2013

What Obama Said About Iran – The Daily Beast.

In several appearances over two days in Israel this week, Barack Obama spoke at length about the Iranian nuclear crisis. Much to the chagrin of the Israeli right, Obama appears ready to continue on the current course of slow diplomacy, waiting out a possible deal or, less preferably, an Iranian move that would drive him to strike militarily. He was not above issuing the “credible threat” the Israeli leadership demanded of him. For the moment, at least, they were sated. But how long can it last?

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SAUL LOEB

The speech in Jerusalem yesterday was Obama sticking to his guns, so to speak. “I do believe that all of us have an interest in solving this peacefully,” he told an auditorium full of Israeli university students, yielding momentarily to a tepid but rising applause. “A strong and principled diplomacy”—he paused a second time to soak up the emboldened clapping, and started again, only to be halted by louder cheering after declaring: “A strong and principled diplomacy is the best way to ensure that the Iranian government forsakes nuclear weapons.” But the highest crescendos of applause at Obama’s Iran remarks came when he said Iran was “not a danger that can be contained.” This time, he spoke through the applause: “And as president, I’ve said all options are on the table for achieving our objectives. America will do what we must to prevent a nuclear-armed Iran.” Then he stopped for more approbation, having before a foreign public just issued the threat of an American war, thinly veiled in its well worn euphemism, against a third nation.

“I think that in order to convince the Iranians and the Israelis that there’s another way than an Israeli strike or an Iranian weapon, they have to say what they’re saying,” Dov Zakheim, a former American Department of Defense official, said of the U.S. position. In order to find this third way, he told me on the sidelines of an Israeli security conference last week, more pressure would be needed. “But other than that, you convince them that you’re nutty enough to strike.” He added that “circumstances can change”—the Iranians might walk down from the ledge, allowing the de facto containment policy already in effect to continue. I asked him if U.S. strikes could cause a significant delay in Iran’s nuclear program. “Yes,” he replied assuredly. Five years? “Mr. Obama only cares about three and a half,” he said with a wry smile.

That will hardly be enough time for Benjamin Netanyahu, who, for his part, marks Iran perpetually at the top of his priority list. “We had an opportunity today to begin discussing the wide range of issues that are critical to both our countries,” Netanyahu said at a press conference Wednesday with Obama. “And foremost among these is Iran’s relentless pursuit of nuclear weapons.” He went on to agree with the timeline Obama gave earlier this week for an Iranian breakout, noting that the clock starts with an Iranian decision: “If Iran decides to go for a nuclear weapon—that is, to actually manufacture the weapon—then it probably—then it would take them about a year. I think that’s correct.” That doesn’t, however, affect the gap that remains in the two nuclear armed powers’ red lines for Iran: Obama speaks about Iran’s actual construction of a weapon as a red line, whereas Netanyahu still places his at Iran attaining a certain level of stockpiled medium-enriched uranium, which is a short step away from weapons grade.

Netanyahu has been eager to take credit for Iran’s hedging of its stockpiles. This week, the New York Times‘s David Sanger reported: “For Mr. Netanyahu, Iran’s recent decision to divert some of its medium-enriched uranium to make fuel rods for a research reactor, making it difficult to convert the uranium into nuclear fuel, represents a vindication of the red line he laid down at the United Nations: that Iran could not possess enough nuclear fuel to produce a single weapon.” Sanger is too credulous of Netanyahu: the information about Iran’s re-processing of nuclear fuel actually came out in an August report by the U.N.’s nuclear watchdog, a month before Netanyahu’s address. (Not so “relentless,” after all.) What has actually mattered are the American red lines. These haven’t been stated in bright lights but, rather than focusing on a medium-enrichment, would utilize intelligence to watch Iran for signs that an order to produce a weapon has been handed down (it hasn’t); that fissile material is being spun to weapons-grade (it hasn’t); or that Iran is making significant progress toward a delivery vehicle (it hasn’t). Obama would almost certainly rather wait out these potential steps for three and a half years than launch a military strike and hope the delay to Iran’s nuclear progress holds that long before new strikes are needed.

And Obama’s higher threshold for war meshes with the time he believes remains for a deal. Hints from Tehran suggest possible flexibly in dealing with world powers over its the disputed nuclear program. But these Iranian balloons pop just as frequently as they’re launched. A recalcitrant negotiator—driven by the whims of the Supreme Leader and pressure from powerful hardliners—Iran is a fickle player in the three dimensional chess game it plays with the U.S. and Israel. For the moment, if it ever was a serious possibility, an Israeli strike has been averted. But Iran may yet frolic around in this gap between the U.S. and Israeli positions. Provocations could as easily come in Netanyahu’s timeline—by this Spring or Summer—as Obama’s. Would Netanyahu take action if his red line gets crossed? Doubtful: with his political position weakened in elections and a tenuous coalition to deal with, Bibi’s unlikely to take those kinds of chances. That would leave a tense few months between Washington and Tel Aviv as the Americans listen and wait on Iran’s next move. If they take the leap, well, Obama has indeed made clear what he’ll do, no matter his passing mentions of “inevitable costs” and “unintended consequences” in Jerusalem on Thursday.

Love for the magical Mr. Obama

March 22, 2013

Love for the magical Mr. Obama | The Times of Israel.

Local media gushes over the US president’s speech to Israeli students, especially his use of Hebrew phrases of comfort

March 22, 2013, 3:54 pm
US President Barack Obama waves to the crowd after addressing Israeli students at the International Convention Center in Jerusalem, Thursday, March 21 (photo credit: Yonatan Sindel/Flash90)

US President Barack Obama waves to the crowd after addressing Israeli students at the International Convention Center in Jerusalem, Thursday, March 21 (photo credit: Yonatan Sindel/Flash90)

US President Barack Obama delivered a stirring speech at the International Convention Center in Jerusalem on Thursday; it was up to the Israeli press to pick it apart, and discern what he meant by it, on Friday. The thing they loved most: the Hebrew.

Maariv devotes a walloping 11 pages to its coverage of Obama’s activities around Israel and the Palestinian territories, but leads off with a full translation of the president’s address. One analysis piece in the paper says the atmosphere among the students in the crowd was like that of a rock concert. One member of the crowd who was interviewed had voted for Mitt Romney in the last US elections, but was nonetheless excited to attend.

“Because it’s the president of the United States,” he said flatly, clarifying that it’s star status, no matter what your political ideology is,” the daily writes.

Columnist Shalom Yerushalmi writes that the crux of Obama’s speech was that Israel is “strong enough to make peace with the Palestinians, and to give them an independent state, and thus you will also not lose your state’s Jewish and democratic identity.” He made it about the Palestinian issue, first and foremost, but were it up to Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, who “wanted Iran to stand at the center of things” in the speech, Obama wouldn’t have made the Palestinian issue so essential, Yerushalmi writes.

“The prime minister would have been happy to lock up the Palestinian file in a drawer and throw the key into the sea off Gaza. Obama saw what was the important and burning matter to him. After the carrot comes the stick,” he says.

Israel Hayom plays up the big quote in Hebrew from the speech — “Atem lo levad” — “You’re not alone,” which it displays prominently on the paper’s front page. Boaz Bismuth picks the speech apart, saying the first half was the “Likud Obama” and the second half was the “Meretz Obama.” The first part of the speech appealed to those concerned with Israeli security; the second appealed to those concerned about a Palestinian future, but both parts included the president’s magical delivery, he says.

“Obama came to Israel to try to enchant, and he succeeded at it,” Bismuth writes in his Page 3 column. “He chose to speak directly to the young, in order for them to help the new secretary of state, John Kerry, in his negotiation work and the coming battle.”

“Obama, the good friend of Bibi, spoke clearly about two states for two peoples, when one of them… is Jewish. The time has also come for the [Palestinian] Authority to internalize” the message, he writes. The real issue, according to Bismuth, is whether Obama will deliver like former presidents Jimmy Carter and Bill Clinton, or whether his speech was just good oratory.

The paper’s coverage of “Obamageddon” in Israel takes up the first 15 pages of Israel Hayom’s Friday edition.

Yedioth Ahronoth also puts the “You’re not alone” quote on the front page, splashed over a picture of Obama receiving the Presidential Medal of Distinction from his counterpart, Shimon Peres. On the inside pages, next to the photos of Obama and Peres smiling and raising their glasses at the state dinner held in the visiting leader’s honor, the key words in Yedioth’s analyses of the speech were “love” and “magic.”

Nahum Barnea writes that Obama didn’t come to bring a peace plan, but rather “to calm, to convince, to conquer.” He sums up the president’s speech this way: “The cost involved in establishing a Palestinian state is dwarfed by the benefits that will crop up with the end of the occupation.” Barnea says the speech had a good combination of “a broad historical canvas, a traditional worldview, experiences from the field, information, emotion, warmth, specific criticism.”

“The praises were a lover’s praises; the injuries were a lover’s injuries,” he gushes.

Hanoch Daum writes about “the moment that enchanted me” during Obama’s speech, and Sima Kadmon says that “Israel is in love.”

“On the president’s second day in Israel, it’s definitely possible to determine that Israel is enamored,” Kadmon writes. “The sensation was that if they had ballots at the convention center, Obama would have been elected prime minister of Israel.”

Haaretz leads with what the daily saw as the crux of the speech: “Demand peace from your leaders,” reads the headline. The paper’s editorial urges readers to pay attention to Obama, who pushed for security “through a fair and just peace, based on two states for two peoples,” and international diplomacy to thwart an Iranian nuke rather than unilateral Israeli military action.

“Obama’s objective on his trip to Israel was achieved: He conquered the hearts of Israelis and gave them a sense of security, in the hope that now they will assume the responsibility and push their leaders towards a peace agreement with the Palestinians,” it writes. “Let’s hope that Obama’s vision will fall on attentive ears.”

Nehemia Shtrasler is less enamored of Obama than are the others. He writes that the president’s real objective in visiting Israel and pushing for peace was to “bring quiet, promote trade, and, most important: allow the free and cheap flow of oil to the United States.”

He says that the majority of the conversations between the two heads of state were about Iran and Syria and that Obama seeks to empower Israel in order to protect American interests in the Middle East. “What the two said to each other on the peace process with the Palestinians was only poetic license. Obama will not stop Israel’s continued wallowing in the swamp of occupation on its way to a binational state, which will be the end of the Zionist dream.”

“If we don’t see a significant peace process here in the coming years, what will be left is just internal affairs. And the new government was established exactly for that: to deal with the economic-social-civil sphere,” he warns.

Israel, Turkey agree to normalize relations

March 22, 2013

Israel, Turkey agree to normalize relations | The Times of Israel.

Obama, brokering dramatic reconciliation, says it’s important the two nations restore good ties so they can cooperate on regional security

March 22, 2013, 4:56 pm
Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan (left) with US President Barack Obama during a bilateral meeting last March (photo credit: AP/Pablo Martinez Monsivais)

Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan (left) with US President Barack Obama during a bilateral meeting last March (photo credit: AP/Pablo Martinez Monsivais)

In a reconciliation demanded and brokered by President Barack Obama Friday, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and his Turkish counterpart Recep Tayyip Erdogan spoke by telephone and agreed to end three years of frozen relations.

In the first conversation between the leaders since 2009, Netanyahu made it clear that the tragic consequences of the Mavi Marmara flotilla interception in May 2010 — in which nine Turkish citizens died — were not intended and expressed sorrow for the loss of life. He also agreed to compensate family members of the victims.

Turkey and Israel were once close allies, but relations unraveled in recent years, exacerbated in 2010 by the Israeli interception of the Mavi Marmara as it sought to break Israel’s blockade of the Gaza Strip.

The two leaders also agreed to cooperate on improving the humanitarian situation in Gaza.

The leaders agreed to return their respective ambassadors and pledged to overcome differences.

Obama said he welcomed the move and that it was important the two nations restore good relations so they can cooperate on regional security. The call came on the final day of Obama’s trip to Israel.

Last year, Erdogan accused Israel’s leaders of trying to eliminate the Palestinian population in Gaza. And the Turkish leader recently compared Zionism to Fascism at a UN meeting, prompting US Secretary of State John Kerry to object and say the remark complicated Mideast peace efforts. Erdogan said this week he had been misunderstood.

Iran Tango Foxtrot

March 22, 2013

Israel Hayom | Iran Tango Foxtrot.

 

Despite the hoopla and ceremony, Obama’s visit will be judge solely on the basis of the quiet understandings reached behind closed doors on the key issues: coordinating moves to stop Iran’s nuclearization, American willingness to ratchet up pressure on Iran; and perhaps the deployment of forces in the Persian Gulf for a possible blockade.

Shlomo Cesana
U.S. President Barack Obama and Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu in front of an Iron Dome battery on Wednesday.

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Photo credit: Avi Ohayon / GPO

First love, then war?

March 22, 2013

Israel Hayom | First love, then war?.

U.S. President Barack Obama’s charm offensive in Israel this week was sweet music to my ears. I truly enjoyed the talk of eternal alliance (lanetzach!), unwavering commitment to Israel’s security, and the Jewish people’s historic rights in the land of Israel.

I know that such reaffirmations of the U.S.-Israel bond are critically important to our staying power and deterrent power. They send a strong signal to Israel’s adversaries. They are much appreciated, and I salute the president for his magnanimous visit. I credit U.S. Ambassador Dan Shapiro for convincing Obama to take the high road and share the love.

But I worry that Obama’s soft love may soon give way to spoonfuls of tough love.

That’s certainly the case if you believe Obama’s shill Jeffrey Goldberg. He says Obama is preparing to “combat Israeli policy that seems wrong to him and in his estimation jeopardizes Israel’s future and also hurts the United States.” He came to Israel to “create space to combat misguided Israeli policy.” He came “to first make love and then war.”

Goldberg suggests that the visit was a slickly planned attempt to beguile us; that it was about making love to Israelis and then war on Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s policies; that it had a nefarious agenda behind it, which will play out in nasty chords in the coming weeks and months.

According to Goldberg, who trades and revels in his closeness to Obama, the president thinks Israelis to be “a damaged, lonely, and neurotic people, who need love badly.” So Obama came to embrace us, calm us down, and make us compliant; to smother us with affection, then clobber us with ultimatums; to make it easier to dictate a renewed settlement freeze and Israeli withdrawals.

Former U.S. ambassador and peace negotiator Martin Indyk is even starker in outlining Obama’s strategy. Indyk unabashedly says that Obama saw this trip as “an opportunity to gain critical leverage over Prime Minister Netanyahu by reintroducing himself to the Israeli people” as their great friend.

“If the president can change the balance of Israeli public opinion in his favor, he will benefit from a more positive relationship with a more pliant Israeli prime minister,” Indyk said.

“Once Israelis come to believe in Obama, Prime Minister Netanyahu will have to think long and hard before he decides again to upbraid the president in the Oval Office. It will not be so easy for him to refuse Obama’s requests to restrain settlement activity, to take confidence-building steps toward the Palestinians, and to pipe down about Iran’s nuclear program. Historically, the Israeli public has punished prime ministers who mishandle Israel’s all-important relationship with a popular U.S. president.”

Taking a page straight out of Bill Clinton’s playbook (“Shalom, chaver”) and George W. Ball’s infamous 1977 article (“How to Save Israel in Spite of Herself”), Obama is seeking to gain and leverage the trust of Israelis to make Netanyahu more “pliant.”

According to Goldberg, Obama has the right to save Israel in spite of herself because he is “the most Jewish president the United States has ever had” and he is practically a “representative of mainstream liberal American Judaism.” He loves Israel, identifies with Israel, cares for Israel, and is worried sick about Israel. He has the privilege and obligation to push and pressure Israel to do the right (Left!) thing because our leaders (Netanyahu) are screwing up the country’s future. He has the mandate to do so from American Jewry and from our own children.

I hope that the Goldberg and Indyk readings of Obama are wildly off base. I prefer to take Obama’s love at face value. I prefer to give Obama the benefit of the doubt. I prefer to believe that the leader of the free world came here to bolster us, not bamboozle us; and even, perhaps, to draw strength and inspiration for himself from the people of Israel. I want to believe that Obama has learned from his many first term mistakes in obsequious outreach to the radical Islamic world and in unjust unilateral demands of Israel.

But if I’m wrong, and the intrepid interpreters of Obama are right, we’re in for a rough ride, and Obama is in for a harsh awakening. The charm offensive will fail. It won’t turn Israelis against Netanyahu the way Obama hopes. It won’t bring peace.

Israelis are unlikely to buy into Obama’s “trust me” paradigm because, by and large, their reading of Middle East strategic and security realities jives with Netanyahu’s, not Obama’s. Israelis aren’t going to give Obama leeway to push Netanyahu because the president’s record is, frankly, unimpressive. He has been wrong about the Palestinians until now, and he hasn’t handled the Arab Spring so brilliantly either.

Nobody in Israel believes that a mad sprint toward grandiose signing ceremonies on the White House lawn, instead of modest diplomacy aimed at nudging Israeli-Palestinian relations away from the dangers of confrontation, is a good idea. Nobody in Israeli government thinks that concessions to a feckless and radicalized Palestinian Authority in the West Bank, without ending the rule of Iran and Hamas in Gaza, is going to take us forward. Nobody believes that Iran can be talked out of its nuclear drive.

When Obama acts decisively against Isfahan and Fordo, he’ll gain our trust. The president shouldn’t expect Israelis or Netanyahu to become “pliant” all of a sudden because he gave a few good speeches in Jerusalem.