Kerry talks economics, finds Morsi preoccupied with Islamizing Egypt.

DEBKAfile Exclusive Report March 4, 2013, 4:26 AM (GMT+02:00)

US Secretary John Kerry meets President Mohamed Morsi in Cairo

When visiting US Secretary of State John Kerry sat one-on-one with Egyptian President Morsi in Cairo, Sunday, March 3, he talked at length about Egypt’s calamitous economic straits, relations with Israel, democratization and essential reforms. He had hoped to find the Egyptian president amenable to getting to grips with his country’s fast approaching bankruptcy. In the event, Morsi nodded politely but, debkafile’s Middle East sources report, he was far more preoccupied with pushing forward the three-point plan he and the Muslim Brotherhood’s supreme leader Mohammed Badie have begun implementing:

1. The Muslim Brotherhood will not settle for a parliamentary majority in the coming general election – most likely in April or June; it is aiming for 100 percent of the seats.
2. To set the stage for this campaign, the Brothers have installed their loyalists in the governates of Egypt’s 19 provinces. The spreading of Brotherhood values in the national constituency is going full steam ahead across Egypt.
The MB turned to this course when they saw they had no hope of exercising total control over the restive capital and the protest movements springing up regularly in Tahrir Square. So they decided to build up their support in the country at large in the hope of making Cairo an isolated Island in the predominantly Islamist country.

3. To boost their popularity in the coming election, Morsi and Badie decided they could not afford the painful measures required by the International Monetary Fund for a $4.8 billion loan to tide the economy over its current crisis – spending cutbacks, downsizing the vast Egyptian civil service, reducing food subsidies and cutting away dead wood.

Instead, they dropped their credit application to the IMF altogether and so avoided mass unemployment and widespread hardship in the months leading up to the election.
However, the US Secretary of State sternly called the Egyptian president’s attention to three major concerns which need to be addressed with the utmost urgency:
a) Egyptian foreign currency reserves continue to bleed dangerously and no one knows how to stop the disastrous drain. By April, it is predicted that no more than $4 billion will be left to sustain a population of 80-90 million souls.
2. Egypt’s industrial plants are working at just 50 percent capacity because fuel is scarce and the money to buy it even scarcer.
3. Gas for powering electricity is running out. More and more areas no longer receive regular electricity – some none at all. The water supply is also affected.
debkafile’s sources report two conflicting approaches on how to resolve Egypt’s calamitous economic emergency:

The Morsi Badiah upbeat approach which maintains that Egypt can keep going for three or four months until parliamentary elections. The Brotherhood will win 100 percent of the house and can then safely impose the necessary harsh economic measures that would hurt every part of the population, but hope to put the economy on its feet.
This pie-in-the-sky approach has Washington up in arms. They don’t believe the Egyptian economy can wait another three to four months before tough remedies are put in place. They warn that a delay that long will see the Muslim Brotherhood and President Morsi crash and Egypt slump into a failed state.
Whichever approach is realistic, the Egyptian people will very soon be faced with extreme hardship and a heavy price tab for their revolution.

‘We Mean It that All Options Are on the Table’ – Defense/Security – News – Israel National News.

Defense Minister Ehud Barak

Israel news photo: Flash 90

When Israel says that all options are on the table regarding stopping a nuclear Iran, it means what it says, Defense Minister Ehud Barak said at the AIPAC 2013 conference on Sunday night.

“It is an indescribable feeling to be surrounded by so many friends in the capital of the world’s greatest democracy,” Barak told the audience at the beginning of his speech.

“I have six humble words for all of you: Thank you, thank you, thank you. I would like to express my personal appreciation to President Barack Obama and [outgoing] Defense Secretary Panetta for their resolute backing of Israel. History will surely record your immeasurable contribution to the strength of Israel and the maintenance of the truly special relationship between our two peoples. I wish incoming Secretary Hagel all the best in his new role.”

Barak said that Israel’s “rock solid relationship with the U.S.”, alongside the devotion of IDF soldiers, is what ensures Israel’s strong defense capabilities.

“The Iron Dome recently intercepted over incoming terrorists 400 rockets, like hitting a bullet with another bullet,” he said. “Just last week, we conducted an extremely successful test of the Arrow 3. That’s the future of our missile defense.”

The State of Israel would not be what it is without the U.S. – its people, its leaders, its Congress and the Jewish community, said Barak.

“We live in a tough neighborhood where there’s no second chance for those who cannot defend themselves. Israel is the strongest country and the only genuinely open democracy” in the region, he said, going on to mention the ongoing turmoil in the region, specifically in Egypt and Syria.

“Many believe that the root cause for all the problems in the Middle East is our inability to solve the conflict with the Palestinians, but I say that’s not true,” said Barak. “Recent developments in the Middle East have been beyond our control and independent of our deeds. Even if a peace agreement had been signed and sealed a long time ago, the Muslim Brotherhood would still have come to power in Egypt, Syria would still be in a bloody civil war and Iran would still be pursuing nuclear capabilities.”

Barak stressed that Iran’s pursuit of nuclear capabilities is “the greatest challenge facing Israel, the region and the world today,” adding that if Iran goes nuclear, Saudi Arabia, Turkey, Egypt and even local terrorist groups may follow suit.

“Diplomatic efforts are unprecedented and sanctions are hurting, but frankly, while exhausting all diplomatic means is understandable, I do not believe it will lead to the ayatollahs giving up their nuclear aspirations. Therefore, all options must remain on the table,” he said.

Barak said, “We expect all those who say it to mean it. Ladies and gentlemen, we mean it. And let me repeat it: We mean it.”

Referring to the peace process with the Palestinian Authority, Barak said, “I tried hard as Prime Minister, together with President Clinton, so I know from personal experience that the Palestinians are not easy partners for peace. Prime Minister Netanyahu has taken courageous steps to renew the process, including an unprecedented settlement freeze, but there still has been no proper response from the Palestinian side. They clearly bear most of the responsibility for past failures.”

Barak conceded that an agreement with the PA is not feasible today, but that sincere efforts should still be made to achieve an interim agreement that will guarantee Israel’s security.

However, he said, if even an interim agreement isn’t possible, Israel should make unilateral steps to stop the formation of a bi-national state.

“It involves demarcating a line, within the State of Israel, within which we will have the ‘settlement blocs’ and a solid Jewish majority,” said Barak, adding that such moves should include a strong and long-term Israeli military presence along the Jordan River.

“Rest assured, our security should not and will not be compromised under any of these alternatives,” he stressed. “Tough decisions must be taken but it is possible, and as our sages said, ‘If not now, when?’”

Assad Says Syria Will Hit Back at Israel

Syrian President Bashar al-Assad vows to hit back at Israel over alleged airstrike in January, but says it may not be an overt attack.

AAFont Size

First Publish: 3/3/2013, 6:09 AM

President Bashar al-Assad

President Bashar al-Assad

AFP photo

Syrian President Bashar al-Assad referred Saturday to a reported Israeli airstrike in January on Syrian soil, which had allegedly damaged a chemical weapons site, vowing to hit back the Jewish State.

In an interview with The Sunday Times, Assad said his country had always hit back at Israel but said it might not be an overt counterattack.

“We retaliated in our own way, and only the Israelis know what we mean. Retaliation does not mean missile for missile or bullet for bullet. Our own way does not have to be announced,” he said.

Assad also denied that fighters from Iran and the Hizbullah terror group had been dispatched to help defend his regime against rebels, but refused to discuss reports that Damascus was looking to transfer its large chemical weapons stores to Hizbullah.

“We have never, and will never, discuss our armaments with anyone,” he told the Times.

U.S. officials indicated that the airstrike that was allegedly carried out by Israel targeted surface-to-air missiles and an adjacent military complex believed to house chemical agents.

Israel has not commented on the attack, and has not officially confirmed its involvement, although Defense Minister Ehud Barak hinted at the possibility that Israel did carry out the attack.

In the Sunday Times interview, Assad also warned Britain to keep out of the conflict in his country, accusing the British government of acting in “a naïve, confused, and unrealistic manner.”

He told the newspaper that for decades Britain had played an “unconstructive” role in the Middle East, claiming that the British government was determined to arm his opponents.

“How can we expect to ask Britain to play a role when it is determined to militarize the problem?” said Assad, adding, “How can you ask them to play a role in making the situation better, more stable? How can we expect them to make the violence less while they want to send military supply to the terrorists and don’t try to ease the dialogue between the Syrians.”

“There’s no contact between Syria and Britain for a long time,” said Assad. “You cannot separate the role from the credibility, and you cannot separate the credibility from the history of that country.”

“To be frank, Britain has played famously in our region (an) unconstructive role in different issues, for decades, some say for centuries,” he said.

Assad added, “I think they are working against us, and they are working against the interests of the UK itself. This government is acting in a naïve, confused, and unrealistic manner. If they want to play a role they have to change this, they have to act in a more reasonable and responsible way.”

Britain has expressed support for the Syrian opposition involved in fighting against the government but has not provided the rebels with weapons or ammunition.

William Hague, the Foreign Secretary, however, has indicated that the UK could send weapons to opposition groups in the future. The Telegraph reported that he is expected to make a statement in Parliament next week detailing aid, including civilian vehicles, that will be sent to the rebels.

“We want to do more and we want to give more types of support and we’re pushing to do that,” a Foreign Office spokesman said earlier this week, according to the Telegraph.

Hague met on Thursday in Rome with members of the mainstream Syrian National Council (SNC) to discuss the issue of his country training and equipping opposition forces in their fight to Assad from power, making good on a promise he extended late last summer.

Also on Thursday, U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry announced the United States will provide $60 million to hand-picked Syrian rebel groups.

Kerry said the aid, to be provided “immediately in non-lethal assistance” would come in addition to “further steps” to be taken in working with the opposition fighters.

via Assad Says Syria Will Hit Back at Israel – Middle East – News – Israel National News.

Ross: Bibi, Obama Mulling when Force against Iran is Inevitable

Speaking at AIPAC conference, Dennis Ross and Elliot Abrams agree Iran is playing “rope-a-dope.”

AAFont Size

By Gil Ronen

First Publish: 3/3/2013, 5:30 PM

Dennis Ross

Dennis Ross

Official Photo

Diplomats Dennis Ross and Elliot Abrams agreed on a Sunday panel at the AIPAC conference that Iran is successfully deceiving the P5+1 countries in the negotiations over Tehran’s nuclear weapon program. The AIPAC 2013 is being carried live on Arutz Sheva.

Dennis Ross termed Iran’s approach as a “rope-a-dope” strategy. Iran, he said, is playing for time vis-à-vis the P5+1. He suggested that the P5+1 countries “go for an endgame strategy.” The idea, he said, is to present Iran with a model for a civilian nuclear program, and ask – do you accept it or not?

At some point, he explained, negotiations have got to clarify whether Iran intends to comply with the P5+1 demands – or the P5+1 might have to adopt a more aggressive approach.

Elliot Abrams said that Iran continues to build up not just its nuke program but also Hizbullah and Assad’s army in Syria. Russia and China are playing a game, he said – and these two countries are also a part of the P5+1.

As far as nuclear strategy is concerned, he said, “Iran’s Ayatollah Khamenei is doing great. We are not.” It is true, he said, that the sanctions program is damaging Iranian economy, “but the goal is to prevent them from achieving a nuclear weapon, and if you fail to do that you have failed.”

Denniss Ross said that Binyamin Netanyahu and President Barack Obama “will try to define prevention” when they meet in April. “They want to have a better understanding,” he added, “of when does prevention as objective fail, and force become inevitable.”

Abrams said the U.S. was “tragically slow” in responding to the Syria crisis. He noted that humanitarian aid has been transferred to the Syrian government until now, and praised Secretary of State Jon Kerry for saying that the aid will now go to rebels. Ross explained that the reason for the change is that the aid has been passing through the UN, and the UN has decided to transfer the aid to the rebels from now on.

Abrams served in foreign policy positions for two Republican U.S. Presidents, Ronald Reagan and George W. Bush. He is currently a senior fellow for Middle Eastern studies at the Council on Foreign Relations.

Ross served as the Director of Policy Planning in the State Department under President George H. W. Bush, was the special Middle East coordinator under President Bill Clinton, and was a special adviser for the Persian Gulf and Southwest Asia (which includes Iran) to Secretary of State Hillary Clinton.

via Ross: Bibi, Obama Mulling when Force is Inevitable – Global Agenda – News – Israel National News.

One of world’s oldest synagogues bombed in DamascusThe Elijah the Prophet Synagogue in suburban Damascus is damaged as Syrian army tries to hit rebels they believed were hiding there • Former Syrian in Israel: If the reports are true [about the destruction] this is unfortunate for us Jews and for supporters of historical site conservation worldwide.”Danny Brenner, Daniel Siryoti, Lilach Shoval, Eli Leon, The Associated Press and Israel Hayom StaffThe damaged synagogue in Damascus.|Photo credit: YouTube<< 1 2 >>One of the oldest synagogues in the world, the Eliyahu Hanavi Elijah the Prophet synagogue in northeastern Damascus, was damaged by a Syrian army bombardment on Friday.The Syrian opposition reported that the Syrian army had bombarded the Jobar neighborhood in suburban Damascus, site of the ancient synagogue, believing that armed rebels were hiding there. It is not yet clear how much damage was inflicted on the synagogue.In videos uploaded to the Internet by the rebels, it appears that the wall surrounding the synagogue compound was partially destroyed and part of the roof collapsed. In one of the videos, viewers can see English writing on the outside of the building declaring it to be the “Shrine and Synagogue of Prophet Eliahou Hanabi.” Meir David, who emigrated from Syria and lives in Haifa, told stories about having attended the synagogue.”It is the oldest synagogue in Syria,” he told Israel Hayom on Saturday evening. “There is a large yard with a building that has several rooms in it, and near them is the structure of the ancient synagogue. A large stone sits at the synagogue entrance with an engraving in Assyrian, and next to it translations to Arabic and French: ‘This is the place where Elijah annointed Elisha ben-Shafat [as the next prophet, I Kings 19:15-16].’ If the reports are true [about the destruction] this is unfortunate for us Jews and for supporters of historical site conservation worldwide.”Arab media outlets reported other damage over the past few days, including the rebels attacking the elite Republican Guard on Mount Qasioun in Damascus, where one of President Bashar al-Assad’s palaces is located. Rebels claim they have downed two fighter jets — one in Aleppo and one in Hama.According to reports, the Syrian army is trying to recapture peripheral areas, which have been under rebel control for several months, but so far to no avail despite their air support.The Assad regime remains intact, however, mainly due to Iranian support. On Saturday, Syrian Foreign Minister Walid al-Muallem hosted his Iranian counterpart, Ali Akbar Salehi, who said, “President Bashar Assad is the legitimate president of the Syrian people until presidential elections next year.”Assad himself was interviewed by The Sunday Times and rejected any speculation that Britain would act as a mediator in the ongoing Syrian war.”We do not expect an arsonist to be a firefighter,” Assad said. “To be frank, Britain has played a famously unconstructive role in our region on different issues for decades, some say for centuries.”Meanwhile, the Israel Defense Forces said a series of Syrian mortar shells had landed in the Israeli-held Golan Heights.A military spokesman said the shells landed on Saturday afternoon in an open area, causing no damage. He said they were likely stray fire from the civil war. The official spoke on condition of anonymity in line with military policy.He said Israeli troops were searching the area and were not immediately sure how many shells had landed. Israeli media reported at least three explosions in the area.Stray fire from Syria’s conflict has occasionally landed in Israeli-controlled territory and there are concerns the fighting could spill over the border.

via Israel Hayom | One of world’s oldest synagogues bombed in Damascus.

Iranian FM: Sanctions to be eased as of today

inShare

Iranian FM: Sanctions to be eased as of today

3 March 2013, 13:54 (GMT+04:00)

Print.

Azerbaijan, Baku, Mar.3 / Trend F.Mehdi/

Sanctions imposed on Iran will be eased gradually as of today, IRNA quoted Iranian Foreign Minister Ali-Akbar Salehi as saying.

Under proper policies taken by the country’s diplomatic system, the sanctions will be removed gradually, he said.

Enemies claimed last year that the sanctions would be crippling, but they have confessed that the sanctions have not been very effective, he noted.

Iran and P5+1 held nuclear talks in Almaty last week. Both Iran and P5+1 members called negotiations as “positive”.

A senior U.S. official told AP anonymously the major powers’ proposals to Iran would allow the country to keep a limited amount of highly enriched uranium, but not to make anymore stops short of demanding the full shutdown of an underground nuclear facility and offers to remove some trade sanctions that have hurt Iran’s economy.

Iranian officials recognise these proposals as ‘a victory, a turning point by world powers and constructive’.

At the beginning of 2012, the United States and the European Union imposed new sanctions on Iran’s oil and financial sectors with the goal of preventing other countries from purchasing Iranian oil and conducting transactions with the Central Bank of Iran.

U.S. sanctions entered into force on June 28, while EU bans on Iranian oil imports came into force on July 1.

In October, the EU approved another major package of economic sanctions on Iran.

Do you have any feedback? Contact our journalist at agency@trend.az

via Iranian FM: Sanctions to be eased as of today – Trend.Az.

AIPAC conference to focus on Iranian nuclear threatVice President Joe Biden will represent the U.S. administration at the event • Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to speak before the conference via videolink.Yoni Hirsch and Lilach ShovalPrime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu at AIPAC’s conference in 2012. [Archive]|Photo credit: APMore than 10,000 Israel supporters were set to convene in Washington D.C. on Sunday for the annual conference hosted by the U.S.’s largest pro-Israel lobby, the American Israel Public Affairs Committee. The main issue on the agenda for the conference was to be the Iranian nuclear threat.AIPAC members from across North America were set to arrive Sunday and attend numerous debates and panels. The U.S. administration will be represented by Vice President Joe Biden, who is set to speak before the committee on Monday. Biden’s speech at AIPAC comes only weeks before U.S. President Barack Obama makes his first visit to Israel.Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, who is diligently working to assemble a government coalition, will not make it to the conference, though he is set to speak via videolink.Defense Minister Ehud Barak will be Israel’s most senior representative at the event. He is scheduled to address the conference on Sunday night. Other expected speakers are Israeli Ambassador to the U.S. Michael Oren, House Majority Leader Eric Cantor, and additional congressmen and statesmen.The conference will cover a range of topics relevant to U.S.-Israeli relations.

via Israel Hayom | AIPAC conference to focus on Iranian nuclear threat.

‘Nuclear talks only gave Iran more time’ | The Times of Israel.

Senior Israeli official dismisses West’s latest attempt to curb Iran’s nuclear drive via diplomatic means

Diplomats participate in the fourth round of high-level talks with an Iranian delegation, right, aimed at stopping the Islamic regime’s nuclear program from making atomic weapons in Almaty, Kazakhstan on Wednesday. (photo credit: AP/ Shamil Zhumatov, Pool)

A recently concluded round of nuclear talks between Iran and the West yielded nothing but more time for Tehran in its race toward atomic armament, an Israeli official told AFP on Saturday.

The P5+1 group of nations – the US, China, Russia, France, Britain and Germany – wrapped up a two-day summit in Kazakhstan on Wednesday, during which Iran was offered an easing of some sanctions in exchange for cooperation on uranium enrichment.

“We understand that the only thing that was achieved in these talks was to give Iran more time to move ahead in its quest for a nuclear weapon,” the Israeli official was quoted as saying.

US Secretary of State John Kerry said the talks had been useful and left the door open for future bilateral talks between Washington and Tehran.

“Iran knows what it needs to do. The president has made clear his determination to implement his policy that Iran will not have a nuclear weapon,” Kerry said, according to Reuters.

UK Foreign Secretary William Hague said he looked forward to “further progress by experts in March on the revised and credible proposal” the P5+1 put to Iran.

But Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said the international community should threaten Iran with “military sanctions” if the regime doesn’t stop pursuing its nuclear program.

“We have the problem of Iran that is continuing to defy the international community, [and] doesn’t seem to seek an end to its military nuclear program,” Netanyahu said during a meeting with Sri Lankan Foreign Minister G.L. Peiris in Jerusalem. “Like North Korea, it continues to defy all the international standards and I believe that this requires the international community to ratchet up its sanctions and make clear that if this continues there will be also a credible military sanction. I think no other means will make Iran obey the wishes of the international community.”

Former foreign minister Avigdor Liberman accused the West of backing down.

“It’s clear to everyone that the Iranians don’t intend to halt their efforts to reach nuclear capability,” he said. “The reactors at Parchin and other locations are working at full steam without any [International Atomic Energy Agency] observer being allowed to visit.”

Iran maintains it has the right under international law to enrich uranium to 20 percent — a level at which uranium can quickly be further enriched for use in a nuclear weapon. Tehran claims it needs that level of enriched uranium for reactor fuel and medical isotopes, and has signaled it does not intend to stop.

UN nuclear inspectors last week confirmed Iran has begun a major upgrade of its program at the country’s main uranium enrichment site.

The Associated Press contributed to this report.

Syrian no-man’s land bordering Israel and Jordan is up for grabs.

DEBKAfile Exclusive Report March 2, 2013, 5:29 PM (GMT+02:00)

Israeli military drill on the Golan

The four Syrian mortar shells exploding on the Israeli side of the Golan Saturday, March 2, flashed a signal to Israeli Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu that the moment is at hand to step in and decide how to dispose of the expanse of southern Syrian bordering on northern Israel. This urgency sent Defense Minister Ehud Barak flying to Washington Friday March 1, to meet new US Defense Secretary Chuck Hagel next Tuesday.

At the top of their agenda for discussion this time will not be Iran but, debkafile’s military sources report, the disappearance, except for scattered military units, of Bashar Assad’s ruling presence and army from the Syrian areas abutting on Israel and Jordan. The collapse of Assad’s defense lines on these two borders generates a new strategic situation of major import.
Most Israelis, including their media, are too deeply engrossed in the ins and outs of Netanyahu’s struggle to form a coalition government to notice that a no man’s land has opened up on the Syrian Golan, the Horon province (where the Syrian uprising first erupted two years ago), and the Yarmuk River dividing Syria from Jordan.
At the same time,  the Assad army is all but gone from there and the Syrian rebels are constrained from moving into the abandoned territory by three considerations:

1. They are short of the manpower for seizing and holding it;

2.  Their commanders have evidently not caught onto the brilliant international, strategic opportunity waiting to drop in their laps;
3.  The Druze community in their mountain fortresses overlooking the territory is poised to prevent any outsider takeover.
Israel is confronted with a choice between leaving the long-menacing areas overlooking the Sea of Galilee and its north-eastern regions to an unknown fate – or asserting control itself.
At this point, Israel’s armed forces still have three options:
a)  Directly capturing dominant points in those no-man’s land areas as guarantees of a say in who eventually dominates them.
b)  Military support for a Druze land grab.
c)  Military collaboration with Jordan to control the fate of the abandoned lands abutting both their borders.
There is still time to pre-empt developments that would be detrimental to Israel’s security: One such development would be a deal being reached on how to dispose of the abandoned territory between the Assad government and Syrian opposition in the talks opening in Moscow Tuesday, March 5.
This deal would open the door for ensconcing on the Israeli border Muslim extremists, such as the pro-Al Qaeda factions fighting with the Syrian rebels.
Barak’s mission to Washington is to align Israel-US positions on these and other urgent topics with the new US defense secretary. debkafile’s Washington sources are skeptical about his chances of success in view of the Obama administration’s decision to pass the resolution of the Syrian question to Russian President Vladimir Putin.

This leaves the initiative up to Netanyahu. He has shown exceptional skill of late in ducking clear decisions on such matters. However, indecisiveness at this moment could cost Israel dear in the future.

Seized Arms Off Yemen Raise Alarm Over Iran – NYTimes.com.

Seized Chinese Weapons Raise Concerns on Iran

By ROBERT F. WORTH and C. J. CHIVERS

Published: March 2, 2013

Enlarge This Image

Yemeni Defense Ministry, via Reuters

Some of the weapons that officials said were seized off the coast of Yemen in January, from a dhow seen leaving an Iranian port.

Connect With Us on Twitter

Follow @nytimesworld for international breaking news and headlines.

Twitter List: Reporters and Editors

Among the items aboard the dhow, according to a review of factory markings on weapons and their packing crates, were 10 Chinese heat-seeking antiaircraft missiles, most of them manufactured in 2005.

The missiles were labeled QW-1M and bore stencils suggesting that they had been assembled at a factory represented by the state-owned China National Precision Machinery Import and Export Corporation, sanctioned by the United States for transfers of missile technology to Pakistan and Iran.

The Chinese missiles were part of a larger shipment interdicted by American and Yemeni forces in January, which American and Yemeni officials say was intended for the Houthi rebels in northwestern Yemen. But the presence of the missiles in the seized contraband complicates an already politically delicate case.

The shipment, which officials portray as an attempt to introduce sophisticated new antiaircraft systems into the Arabian Peninsula, has raised concerns in Saudi Arabia, Oman and Yemen, as the weapons would have posed escalated risks to civilian and military aircraft alike.

And it has presented the Obama administration with a fresh example of Iran’s apparent transfer of modern missiles from China to insurgents in the larger regional contest between Sunni-led and Shiite-led states, in which the American military has often been entwined.

The United States has previously accused Iran, a Shiite-led theocracy, of sending weapons to the Houthis, who follow an offshoot of Shiite Islam. Saudi Arabia, an American ally, is considered the leading Sunni power in the region. Both sides have aided and equipped groups or governments they deem aligned with their interests, helping to fuel violence in Yemen, Iraq, Syria, Lebanon, the Palestinian territories, Sudan and elsewhere.

Iran has rejected the allegations as “baseless and absurd.” Neither the Iranian government nor the Chinese firm that markets QW missiles answered written requests for comment.

The government of Yemen has asked the United Nations to investigate the shipment and report the findings to the Security Council. Yemeni news media reported that United Nations experts were in Yemen last week.

The analysis of the weapons’ markings and origins was based on photographs taken when Yemeni officials briefly displayed the weapons to journalists.

Concerns over sophisticated Chinese missiles reaching Iran’s proxies have considerable regional history. They are part of both the larger worries over antiaircraft weapons set loose by conflicts across the Middle East in the past decade and the lingering frustration in Washington over China’s military aid to Iran.

In 2008, late in the Bush administration, the United States complained to China about two similar antiaircraft missiles that were recovered from Shiite militants in Iraq, according a diplomatic cable made public by WikiLeaks.

“We have demarched China repeatedly on its conventional arms transfers to Iran, urging Beijing to stop,” the cable noted.

The cable said the QW-1 missiles recovered in Iraq had been manufactured in China in 2003.

Like the American-made Stinger, China’s QW series is part of a class of weapons known as man-portable air-defense systems, or manpads. The cable instructed American diplomats to warn China of the “unacceptably high risk that any military equipment sold to Iran, especially weapons like manpads, that are highly sought-after by terrorists, will be diverted to nonstate actors who threaten U.S. and coalition forces in Iraq and Afghanistan as well as civilians across the region.”

The latest discovery of Chinese manpads came after the United States Navy detected the dhow, the Jeehan 1, as it took on cargo in an Iranian military-controlled port. The vessel then embarked on a high-seas smuggling run, according to accounts by Yemeni and American officials.

The vessel tied off on a pier in the harbor on Lesser Tunb Island, a tiny spit of land just west of the Strait of Hormuz that is claimed by both Iran and the United Arab Emirates, officials familiar with its voyage said. The island is occupied by Iran’s Revolutionary Guards.

After passing eastward through the strait and heading south along the Arabian Peninsula, the dhow was stopped on Jan. 23 by the American destroyer Farragut and a Yemeni boarding team off the coast of Al Ghaydah.

The dhow’s Iranian crew initially insisted the vessel was Panamanian-flagged and carried only fuel, an American official said. The military cargo, which included many ammunition crates that had been painted over with white or black paint, was found in hidden compartments, American officials said.

That cargo also included 316,000 cartridges for Kalashnikov rifles, nearly 63,000 cartridges for PK machine guns or the Dragunov series of sniper rifles, more than 12,000 cartridges for 12.7-millimeter DShK machine guns and 95 RPG-7 launchers.

The rifle cartridges were packaged in crates strongly resembling packaging used by Iran’s Defense Industries Organization, another firm under American sanction, according to James Bevan, director of Conflict Armament Research, a private arms-tracking firm that has documented the spread of Iranian ammunition in East and West Africa.

The vessel also carried 10 SA-7 shoulder-fired antiaircraft missiles with two gripstocks for firing them, nearly 17,000 sticks of Iranian-made C-4 plastic explosives, 48 Russian PN-14K night vision goggles, and 10 LH80A laser range finders made, according to their placards, by the state-run Iran Electronics Industries, also under American sanction.

The original provenance of the SA-7s was not clear, though the crates they were in had stenciling in Bulgarian.

The captain and crew of the Jeehan 1 remain in Yemeni detention, and the dhow has been impounded under Yemeni custody, a Yememi official said.

An American official called the shipment “deeply disturbing” and said it “clearly appeared to violate” Security Council resolutions prohibiting Iran from exporting arms.

Two independent arms-trafficking researchers who have reviewed photographs and written a summary of the markings on the missiles and crates said the weapons appeared to be of Chinese origin.

Matthew Schroeder, an analyst for the Federation of American Scientists in Washington and the Small Arms Survey in Geneva, said that this was the first time to his knowledge that the QW-1M had left state control.

“If so, and these missiles were indeed bound for insurgents, this shipment is extremely worrisome, both from a regional security and a global counterterrorism perspective,” he said.

Unlike many older shoulder-fired antiaircraft missiles seen in insurgent hands around the world, the QW-1M is believed by analysts to have a seeker head more resistant to countermeasures intended to deceive it.