WarSclerotic

‘Iran believes chance of attack on nuke facilities is low’ | JPost | Israel News.

Report: Iran test-fires short-range missiles – Israel News, Ynetnews.

Nazeat-10, Fajr-5 missiles fired during military exercise in central Iran, Fars news agency reports

Associated Press

The Iranian military has test-fired several short-range missiles, including the type Palestinian terror group Hamas used to attack Tel Aviv last November, the semi-official Fars news agency said.

According to Thursday’s report, the missiles were tested during an army exercise in central Iran. It said the missiles fired were Nazeat-10 and Fajr-5.

During weeks of fighting in November, Gaza’s Hamas rulers fired Iranian-made Fajr-5 rockets that came close to Israel‘s heartland, including the cities of Tel Aviv and Jerusalem for the first time.

Later, Iran admitted supplying Hamas with the technology to produce Fajr-5. The missile has a range of 75 kilometers, or 45 miles. The range of the Nazeat-10 missiles is about 100 kilometers, or 62 miles.

Iran regularly holds maneuver to test and promote its military power.

Peacekeepers on Golan to end patrols, leave posts | The Times of Israel.

UN forces reassessing mission in wake of kidnappings and pullout of several countries as Syrian civil war seeps into DMZ

UN peacekeepers monitor the Syrian side of the border from an Israeli army post at Mount Bental near Kibbutz Merom Golan in the Golan Heights in July 2012. (Photo credit: Tsafrir Abayov/Flash90)

The UN peacekeeping force on the Syrian side of the Golan Heights said late Wednesday it would drastically cut back activity, fearing more kidnappings like one last week that saw 21 Filipino blue hats grabbed by rebels.

The United Nations Disengagement Observer Force, which has guarded the demilitarized buffer zone between Israel and Syria since 1974, will stop patrols and shut down a number of observation posts, a senior UN diplomat told Agence France-Presse.

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It was reported last week that the peacekeepers have already stopped all night patrols.

A number of countries have begun reassessing sending unarmed peacekeepers to the region, which has seen fighting as part of Syria’s ongoing civil war. Last week, 21 peacekeepers from the force were kidnapped by Syrian rebels, who held them for four days.

The soldiers’ ordeal highlighted the risks run by the peacekeepers, who carry only sidearms, by serving in the war-torn area.

Last month, UNDOF reported a member of its team missing from the area, identified by The Times of Israel as Canadian Carl Campeau. The UN and Canadian Embassy have not confirmed the missing man’s identity.

On Wednesday, Croatia’s parliament approved the withdrawal of some 100 peacekeeping troops from the Golan Heights amid fears they could be targeted by Syrian government troops fighting the rebels.

Croatian Defense Minister Ante Kotromanovic said the pullout would start “very soon” but refused to specify the date for security reasons.

The withdrawal, which had been proposed by the country’s president, follows reports claiming that Syrian rebels trying to topple Bashar Assad have been armed with Croatian weapons — including machine guns, rifles and anti-tank grenades — in an operation approved by the United States and sponsored by some Arab countries.

Croatian officials have denied the reports and said they have jeopardized the safety of Croatian soldiers serving in UNDOF.

Japan and Canada have also pulled their troops from the area, citing fears troops could wind up in the midst of the fighting.

“There is a risk they will all leave. And if they all leave then the mission is in definite crisis,” a senior UN diplomat told AFP.

The peacekeeping force was put in place as a bulwark against acts of aggressions between Israel and Syria following the 1973 Yom Kippur War.

“Symbolically, it is very important that UNDOF is there,” the diplomat told AFP. “Because the last thing we want is for the Syrian crisis to spill over into Israel in a dramatic way and start flare-ups and new conflict in the Golan Heights,

The IDF has urged the remaining three UNDOF member-nations — Austria, India and the Philippines — not to abandon the 40-year mission, Channel 2 reported Friday night. New Delhi has said it has no plans to pull out, but Manila is reportedly reassessing its mission.

Earlier in the week Austrian foreign minister Michael Spindelegger rapped both Syria and Israel and hinted at the withdrawal of the country’s troops from the international peacekeeping force in the Golan Heights if the two nations are unable to better secure the border area.

In a letter to the United Nations, the minister explicitly mentions Israel, demanding the UN address Jerusalem with “very clear words” and threaten it with “consequences.”

UN Secretary General Ban Ki-moon is expected to make new recommendations regarding UNDOF to the security council next week.

“The mission is having to assess the way it works so that the troops are safe and the most critical roles are carried out,” UN spokesperson Keiren Dwyer told the news agency.

Raphael Ahren, Times of Israel staff and the Associated Press contributed to this report.

Italy FM: Nuclear Iran will change rules of Mideast game – Israel News, Ynetnews.

Terzi tells Herzliya Conference a nuclear Iran would ‘be free to raise and lower the volume of regional tension’

Ynetnews

“With a nuclear Iran, the rules of the Middle Eastern game would not only change overnight; they would change irreversibly,” visiting Italian Foreign Minister Giulio Terzi di Sant’Agata said Wednesday.

Speaking at the 2013 Herzliya Conference, Italy’s top diplomat said that even if Iran acted rationally with nuclear weapons they would pose an unacceptable global threat.

“Under its own nuclear umbrella, Tehran would be free to raise and lower the volume of regional tension as best suits its national interest,” he said.

“In the end, however ‘regional’ the trigger, a nuclear crisis will always have a global impact. Should Tehran acquire nuclear capabilities, others would follow and the Middle East – the very doorstep of Europe – would enter this new regional nuclear race,” Terzi warned.

Iran’s Ahmadinejad at nuclear plant (Photo: AP)

Addressing the ongoing bloodshed in Syria, the Italian FM told the conference: “We can no longer afford delays in our action. No example is better than Syria to remind us that the (Bashar) Assad regime and its allies do not necessarily act under similar constraints.

“We are witnessing the emergence of fast-rising economic and military powers, in different regions, which pursue their interest with the power of a state and the flexibility of a non-state actor. These are decades of asymmetric diplomacy,” he said.

Terzi concluded by pointing to Israel as a regional stabilizer stating that “Israel not only lies at their geographical center. It is also at their frontline. As the dust settles, and room grows for new ideas, Israel will be the first and foremost engine of a new path towards a more secure and peaceful Middle East.”

Iran steps up weapons lifeline to Syria’s Assad: diplomats – Alarabiya.net English | Front Page.

Thursday, 14 March 2013

Iran has significantly stepped up military support to Syrian President Bashar al-Assad in recent months. (Reuters)

Iran has significantly stepped up military support to Syrian President Bashar al-Assad in recent months, solidifying its position alongside Russia asthe government’s lifeline in an increasingly sectarian civilwar, Western diplomats said.

Iranian weapons continue to pour into Syria from Iraq butalso increasingly along other routes, including via Turkey and Lebanon, in violation of a U.N. arms embargo on Iran, Western officials told Reuters on condition of anonymity. Iraqi and Turkish officials denied the allegations.

Iran’s acceleration of support for Assad suggests the Syrian war is entering a new phase in which Iran may be trying to end the battlefield stale mate by redoubling its commitment to Assadand offering Syria’s increasingly isolated government a crucial lifeline, the envoys said.

It also highlights the growing sectarian nature of the conflict, diplomats say, with Iranian arms flowing to theShi’ite militant group Hezbollah. That group is increasingly active on the ground in Syria in support of Assad’s forces, envoys say.

The Syrian conflict started out two years ago as apro-democracy movement. Some 70,000 people have been killed and more than 1 million refugees have fled the violence.

A Western intelligence report seen by Reuters in September said Iran was using civilian aircraft to fly military personnel and large quantities of weapons across Iraqi airspace to aid Assad. Iraq denied that report but later made apoint of inspecting an Iran-bound flight that it said had noarms on board.

Much of the weaponry going to Syria now, diplomats say,continues to be shipped to Iran through Iraqi airspace and overland through Iraq, despite Baghdad’s repeated promises to put a stop to Iranian arms supplies to Assad in violation of a U.N. arms embargo on Tehran over its nuclear program.

“The Iranians really are supporting massively the regime,” a senior Western diplomat said this week. “They have been increasing their support for the last three, four months through Iraq’s airspace and now trucks. And the Iraqis really are looking the other way.”

“They (Iran) are playing now a crucial role,” the senior diplomat said, adding that Hezbollah was “hardly hiding the support it’s giving to the (Syrian) regime.”

He added that the Syrian civil war was becoming “more and more sectarian,” with Sunnis – an increasing number of whom come from Iraq – battling Shi’ites and members of Assad’s Alawite sect, an offshoot of Shi’ite Islam.

Ali al-Moussawi, Iraqi Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki’s media adviser, strongly denied the allegations, saying on Wednesday: “No, such a thing never happened. Weapons did not and will not be transferred from Iran to Syria through Iraq, whether by landor by air.”

Russia, diplomats said, also remained a key arms supplier for Assad. Unlike Iran, neither Syria nor Russia is subject to a U.N. ban on arms trade and are therefore not in violation of any U.N. rules when conducting weapons commerce. But accepting Iranian arms would be a violation of the U.N. Iran sanctions.

Assad’s ally Russia criticizes U.S., European and Gulf Arab governments for their aid to Syrian rebels seeking to topple Assad.

Russia has said repeatedly that its military support for Syria includes anti-missile air defense systems but no attack weapons such as helicopters.

Moscow says it is not wedded to Assad but that the rebels and government should talk and Assad’s departure should not be a condition for a deal as the opposition and its supportersinsist. Along with China, it has used its Security Council vetoto block punitive U.N. measures against Syria’s government.

Arms and supplies via Turkey and Lebanon?

Alireza Miryousefi, spokesman for Iran’s U.N. mission, responded to a request for a comment by saying, “We believe Syria does not need any military help from Iran.”

“Unfortunately the situation in Syria and the whole Middle East region is becoming more and more delicate and risky because of foreign interference and funneling of arms to the extremist groups,” he said, repeating that Tehran wanted to end the conflict through dialogue between the government and opposition.

Syria’s U.N. ambassador, Bashar Ja’afari, did not respond immediately to a request for comment.

The diplomats cited by Reuters made clear that the principal delivery route for arms to Syria still went through Iraq, despite the existence of alternative supply channels such asTurkish airspace. They also said that Iran Air and Mahan Airwere well-known violators of the Iranian arms embargo.

Iran Air and Mahan Air were both mentioned in the intelligence report on Iranian arms shipments to Syria seen by Reuters in September. The U.S. Treasury Department has blacklisted Iran Air, Mahan Air and Yas Air for supporting the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps.

One Western diplomat cited intelligence reports from his country that a new avenue for sending arms to Syria went on occasion through Turkish airspace to Beirut and from there toSyria by truck. There was no suggestion, he said, that Turkish officials were aware of the illicit arms shipments.

Once in Syria, he said, the arms were distributed to government forces and allied militia, including Hezbollah.

“The equipment being transferred by both companies (Iran and Mahan Air) … ranges from communications equipment to lightarms and advanced strategic weapons, some of which are beingused devastatingly by Hezbollah and the Syrian regime against the Syrian people,” said the Western intelligence report.

“The more sophisticated gear includes parts for various hardware such as unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs), shore-to-seamissiles and surface-to-surface ballistic missiles (SSMs),” the report said. “Other weapons are being used by Syrian security forces, pro-Assad shabbiha militiamen, and Lebanese Hezbollah.”

There are about 5 tons of arms per flight, which areoccurring on a near weekly basis, hidden in the bottom of theplanes’ fuselages, the report said, adding that arms cargo wasremoved separately after civilian cargo was unloaded.

Other Western officials confirmed the findings in thereport.

A Turkish diplomatic source denied the allegation. “This isa very sensitive matter for Turkey, and we are very certain that this is baseless,” the source told Reuters.

Turkey has intercepted Iranian arms shipments in the past and reported them to the U.N. Security Council’s sanctions committee. Ankara’s aggressive campaign to stamp out Iranian arms smuggling via its airspace, Western diplomats say, was whatled Iran to begin using Iraqi airspace instead.

Lebanon’s U.N. ambassador, Nawaf Salam, said he was not in a position to comment. An official at Beirut’s airport who requested anonymity rejected the allegations of clandestine Iranian shipments going to Syria via Beirut airport.

Lebanon has had a complicated relationship with neighboring Syria. Its population is deeply divided over the conflict. U.N.chief Ban Ki-moon last week urged Lebanon, which is hosting hundreds of thousands of Syrian refugees, to remain neutral.

Al Qaeda’s Nusra fights to seize Syrian Golan in time for Obama visit.

DEBKAfile Exclusive Report March 13, 2013, 10:16 PM (GMT+02:00)

One of Syrian military tunnels uncovered on Golan

Shapiro: Obama unlikely to set Iran deadline | JPost | Israel News.

US Ambassador Dan Shapiro cautions against expecting US president to set calendar during Israel visit.

Temporary borders for Palestine and an Iranian attack.

Steve Rosen, a top official with American Israel Public Affairs Committee has predicted a Palestinian State with temporary borders and an American strike on Iran.

Steven Rosen

Speaking at a media lunch organised by The Australia/Israel and Jewish Affairs Council, Rosen said that when Obama came to power he had two international priorities…one was to try to resolve the Israeli-Palesinian conflict and the other to “come to some accommodation between the West and Islam”.

He said that there was a belief that former President George W Bush had “tried to park the Palestinian question”. According to Rosen, Obama set out to repair the damage in the US-Muslim World relations citing his famous trip and speech in Cairo but he added “the Middle East has not been kind to Barak Obama” adding that the attitude of the Muslim world is worse now than four years ago when Obama started his presidential career stating “America’s relations with the Muslim world have declined.”

Turning to the issue of the non-existent peace talks between Israel and the Palestinians, Rosen numbered thirteen public confrontations between Barak Obama, Joe Biden  and the Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu over the issue of the settlements.

Rosen switched his focus to the imminent visit of President Barak Obama to Israel. He said that the world was showing great interest on the impact of this visit on the Israel Palestinian issue but said that the administration did not want “to raise expectations” adding that the he is “going back at it but without the optimism”.

Steve Rosen believes that the new government being formed in Israel “opens up new possibilities” saying that the previous Israeli administration had been “the most conservative government in Israel’s history by far”. Referring to the giving back of Gaza and the introduction of rockets being fired on Tel Aviv he said that “the Israeli public has less confidence in the land for peace model” adding that the average Israeli’s attitude is that “the last line of our latest withdrawal  is the starting line of their next attack”.

He said that the new government in formation in Israel “is a different kind of government”. He mentioned the introduction to the government of the Central Left’s Yair Lapid and of the involvement of Tzipi Livni who has been promised a “special role in negotiations with the Palestinians”. He said there is now a considerable block of the Central Left within the new coalition describing them as  people who believe that some kind of political resolution with the Palestinians is in Israel’s own vital interests and that everything possible has to be done to resume Israel-Palestinian negotiations, that a Palestinian State is necessary to prevent Israel becoming a bi-national State, that Israel can live in peace with a Palestinian State if rightly negotiated.”

He went on to say that there is going to be “a renewed emphasis on the surge for an Israeli-Palestinian agreement on the Israeli side”.  Maintaining that Obama is well aware of this, Rosen said that they need to go back to the Palestinians and get them “to climb down from this branch that they’ve climbed on to where they are refusing to negotiate and I think you are going to witness an effort in that direction”. He mentioned John Kerry’s statement that Obama’s emphasis on the settlements had also served to drive the Israelis away from the peace table. He said the point was that “if we got the Israelis and Palestinians to settle on the borders situation there wouldn’t be an issue with the settlements.”

Rosen said that the Israelis do face  formidable problems referring to the current administration in Egypt’s attitude towards Israeli-Egyptian relations being quite different to that of former President Mubarak. He also referred to Gaza being heavily armed and “with every passing day becoming more heavily armed”. Dealing with the Palestinian Authority, Rosen said that the power of Abbas and Fayed had been heavily weakened and that Abbas had no succession plan in place and has no deputy.

With no successor in place should something happen to him, Palestinian law dictates that the Speaker of the Palestinian parliament assumes the leadership. Rosen said “The Speaker is not a particularly important guy but he is a Hamas factotum and operates under the thumb of the Hamas leadership.” According to Rosen, if anything should happen to Abbas “we would have a Hamas government in the West Bank”.

Rosen predicted that during the Obama visit: “You are going to see a serious effort to resume Israeli-Palestinian negotiations. It is going to involve multi-lateral co-operation. Secretary of State Kerry will play a key role. Most of the Arab League will play a role in bringing the Palestinians to the table most importantly King Abdullah of Jordan”. Rosen believes it could produce a interim Palestinian state with temporary borders. He said that the Palestinians, the Israelis, the Quartet and the UN Security Council have already signed on to the idea of a temporary  borders”. he said that the initial talks would not deal with all the difficult question with many of them being left until the next stage.

Switching to Iran, Rosen said that in 2009 Obama had wanted to use diplomacy rather than having to deal with a military attack on a nuclear-armed Iran.  He said that instead, the Iranians have accelerated production of enriched uranium and built secret underground facilities. Rosen point out that the Iranians “have advanced centrifuges and have become more defiant in their rhetoric”.

Rosen said that recently Vice-President Joe Biden had said that President Obama is not bluffing. Biden said: “He  means it when he says we do not have a policy of containment. We have a policy of prevention and he will do what is necessary to prevent Iran from developing nuclear weapons.” President Obama had said the same thing in the United Nations.

Accroding to Steve Rosen, President Obama is “not a pacifist” saying that the fallout from the drone attacks has not stopped him in maintaining their usage. Rosen said that President Obama is worried that the Israelis will attack Iran and this will also be on the agenda during his visit. “There is no secret that there is a lack of trust between Netanyahu and Obama”, says Rosen. The analyst said that on visits to Israel high level contacts have told him that the Israelis believe that Obama is bluffing and that Netanyahu will launch an attack on Iran soon.

Rosen believes Obama will ask Netanyahu to have more confidence in him and asks why the United States would prefer to attack Iran rather than let the Israelis do it. He answered by saying that United States have much more military power and to compare the two countries “is a joke”. But the most important issue for Rosen is that the United States “can come back a second time”. He alluded to the counter-response from the Iranians sating that you have two different lines of thought making it clear that a counter-attack against Israel is far from a counter-attack against the United States. The Israelis would lose aircraft and resources and would be stretched to the limit and would have to face world opinion. The United States on the other hand has resources to come back many times…and could hit regime targets as well as the nuclear sites.

Rosen concluded: “I believe Obama will try to persuade Netanyahu to leave the Iranian problem to him. The Unites States is a global power and Iran is a global problem.”

His conclusions: Netanyahu will sign an agreement giving a Palestinian State temporary borders  and I predict President Obama will muscle up.”