WarSclerotic

Will there be a war in 2013? We presented the question to Brig. Gen. (Res.) Yossi Kuperwasser, one of Israel’s most appreciated veteran intelligence officers. Will Israel or the US attack in Iran?
“I strongly believe that the capabilities of the system, of which Israel is a part, are sufficient to prevent the threats from materializing, even without an attack. In order for it to happen, it may be necessary to make it clear to the other side that the aggressive option is available, should the need arise. As long as they think that this is not the case, they press on. It is necessary to give credibility to the military option.

“In my opinion, in the primary trial currently on the agenda, the West cannot afford to lose. A situation where the West has accepted a nuclear Iran is unthinkable. North Korea, for example, wanted nuclear capability so as to ensure that they would have food. Iran wants this capability in order to influence the West.

“What the world is doing today is significant, and there is still room for improvement as far as the sanctions are concerned. Technically, Iran is still incapable of overcoming its difficulties, although there are parties that help it. As far as the Iranian issue is concerned, the West really cares about making sure that the world order Iran is challenging does not change, even if Western states currently suffer from economic instability.”

The interview with Kuperwasser was held before Operation Pillar of Defense and on the eve of 2013 , which the Israeli defense system has defined as a “decisive year” – mainly with regards to Iran. According to estimates, it is during 2013 that Iran will achieve its most significant breakthrough on the way towards its first nuclear bomb, or face an attack. Naturally, there is also the option that Iran will suspend its nuclear program, at least declaratively, under the pressure of the heavy sanctions imposed on it.
Kuperwasser currently serves as Director General of the Ministry of Strategic Affairs at the Prime Minister’s Office in Jerusalem. In the past, Kuperwasser had served, among other things, as the head of the Research, Analysis & Production Division of the IDF Directorate of Intelligence.

As a veteran intelligence officer, do you recall such an intensive period in terms of the changes that are taking place?

“I do not recall any non-intensive periods. In that sense, Israel has extensive experience in making decisions under pressure. Our decision makers have experienced such situations over many years. Admittedly, however, this period pushes the dial almost to the end of the scale.”

How do you regard the dramatic processes taking place in the Middle East – are we now in the middle, at the end or only at the beginning of a major change?
“We are in the middle of the process. The problem is not foreseeing its end, but to know which forces are active in an attempt to influence. Each force pulls reality in a different direction, and they may establish between them alliances of one kind or another, some of which have a chance of creating some kind of continuity and influence reality. We are also a part of such a set of alliances, which also attempts to influence reality. So, telling the future is not just a question of a linear line.”

Deputy Prime Minister Ya’alon usually divides the Middle East into “Good” and “Evil” sides. The “Evil” axis includes Iran, Hezbollah, Syria and the Palestinian extremist factions. Is this axis strengthening or weakening?
“In the past, this axis which was previously poised opposite an adverse axis – was pragmatic. Today, the system is in such a mess that the situation cannot be simplified.”

We have lost a few important allies in the last few years, like Turkey, Egypt…
“We have not lost them. Our relationship with Egypt is different from what it had been before, that much is true, but we have not lost it. The system of interests that influences Egypt still carries a very considerable weight with regard to the Egyptian decision-making process. This system leads Egypt to a place which is not so far removed from where it had been before, even if the ruling party has changed dramatically. An Egyptian commitment to the agreement still exists, and in the past, it was a very cold peace anyway. We have not lost Turkey either. They decided to go elsewhere – it is their prerogative, and the decision was made even before the changes in the Middle East.”

Do all of these developments look bad for Israel as we approach 2013, or do they include something good as well?
“No, these developments include challenges and increasingly growing elements, they require strategic development in order to cope with them, and also contain a number of opportunities, not many – but that depends on us. We need to come up with a solution that considers all of the aspects of reality a direct threat, an evolving threat, the risk potential – and consider how the system may be led in a direction that is more appropriate for us, while creating a comprehensive approach “The present reality is complex. On one hand, we face a growing challenge associated with the determination of the radical axis to advance toward attaining capabilities that constitute a change of policy, first and foremost – the Iranian effort to gain nuclear weaponry. It concerns not only Israel, but the entire West. They do it to accomplish political objectives. It is the most important challenge, and a highly important trial for all, mainly for the West and for Israel, but it is part of something bigger that should be dealt with.

“On the other hand, as a result of the regional upheaval, Iran has sustained losses. Its primary asset – Syria – has sustained a significant blow, and Hezbollah may well follow Syria.

“The events in Syria have distanced elements that were once under Iranian influence and now may be reconsidering. The closer they get to a nuclear capability, the more significant the severity of the threats the Iranians would have to face, hence this alliance between us and the elements that do not want a strengthening nuclear Iran – and I refer to the moderate Arab countries and the West. The European Union, for example, has made a decision to impose sanctions on Iran. Europe regards the need to stop Iran’s nuclear program as an important undertaking. Iran is a challenge, but while this challenge is being dealt with, all sorts of other potentials are discovered. Take Turkey, for example. Today they have tensions with Iran. It seemed once as if a honeymoon was developing between them, but eventually it did not materialize.

“The upheaval itself creates tensions inside the Arab system, as they ask the question – where are we heading? Extremist Islam, which has occupied government positions, does not enjoy the same ease the autocratic regimes enjoyed in dealing with their environment. They rose as the manifestation of resistance to autocracy. Now they cannot conduct themselves as Mubarak, who imprisoned his opponents.”

How significant are the Salafi Islamic elements in the Sinai and the Gaza Strip?
“They are very significant as they are firing at us.”

Hamas does not stop this fire?
“It is hard for Hamas to control them, due to military and political reasons.”

You were the intelligence officer of IDF Central Command at the height of the Second Intifada, more than a decade ago. Do you think the Palestinians no longer regard street terrorism as a legitimate course of their struggle?
“The Palestinians believe that Judaism is a religion and not a nation, that the followers of this religion may have been active but have no sovereign rights in this region, so eventually they will disappear from here. That is why they refuse to accept Israel as a Jewish state. Israel is a state of its citizens – just like the President of the Palestinian Authority, Mahmoud Abbas says that they will make peace with the Israeli people (though there is no such thing, as far as they are concerned). The significance of this is that in the context of that peace, Israel will eventually evolve into a state with an Arab majority. This is why the Palestinians have kept waiting, for 65 years, for something that will never happen.

“The second message is that Jews are villainous people, Nazis, war criminals, something awful, so even if we were to say that is such a thing as the Jewish people – they do not deserve a state and certainly not here. Moreover, because of such people, there is justification for the third credo – that against such a terrible group of people, any kind of struggle is clearly legitimate. Therefore they glorify the terrorists who were captured and were killed. They pay prisoners and families of the fallen who sacrificed themselves for the Palestinian cause. On the other hand, they are not completely illogical – if something does not work, they will not use it. They realized that at the moment, terrorist attacks are not worthwhile.”

Are you saying that nothing has changed despite the close security coordination with the Palestinian Authority in recent years?
“Nothing; security coordination is an undeniable Palestinian interest. If there is no coordination and terrorist attacks are launched from Palestinian-controlled territories, they will accomplish nothing. It is our interest, too, but they do it because they want it.”

Did Hezbollah and Iran stand behind the attempted and successful attacks against Israeli objectives around the world in the last year?
“Yes, they were behind the attacks in such places as Azerbaijan, Thailand, Cyprus, India and elsewhere. We succeeded in preventing many attacks. In some cases they failed because of operational problems, but once, in Bulgaria, they had a very significant success – which was extremely bad for us. We must not be confused. We are engaged in an ongoing campaign. Terror is not a threat to our existence, but the campaign is not over.”

Is our relationship with the US still good?
“Our relationship with the US is a cornerstone of our national security. There are moral and cultural gaps between us, but Israel has contributed a lot to the US national security, and the US has contributed to the security of Israel. We have a very close relationship, based, among other things, on a profound similarity of values and a similar way of looking at commitment to justice and global values.

“The US also regards us as we regard it, as a moral twin. There is also the aspect of strategy and mutual interests. Both sides can mutually benefit from this relationship. We helped them a great deal in technology, military knowledge, social and cultural issues.

“We also have regional allies, though only a few will publicly admit it. More than a regional few elements understand the uniqueness of Israel, which is a part of the Western world – with all the moral values, creativity and more – yet also a part of the Middle East. More than a few people look at us and understand that they made a serious mistake, and that ways should be found to connect with Israel. It will take time before these things become evident. We are a people with tremendous patience.”

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The interview was held before Operation Pillar of Defense and was published in the 11th issue of IsraelDefense Magazine