WarSclerotic

Iran warns Turkey not to deploy Patriot missiles | Reuters.

(Reuters) – Iran said Turkey’s plans to deploy Patriot defensive missiles near its border with Syria would add to the region’s problems, as fears grow of the Syrian civil war spilling across frontiers.

Turkey asked NATO for the Patriot system, designed to intercept aircraft or missiles, last week after talks about how to shore up security on its 900-km (560-mile) border.

“The installation of such systems in the region has negative effects and will intensify problems in the region,” Iranian parliament speaker Ali Larijani said on returning from a trip to Syria, Lebanon and Turkey on Saturday evening, according to Iranian state news agency IRNA.

Ramin Mehmanparast, Iran’s foreign ministry spokesman, told the Iranian Students’ News Agency (ISNA) on Sunday that deploying the Patriot system “will not only not help solve the situation in Syria, it will actually make the situation more difficult and complicated as well”.

Syria has called Turkey’s request for the Patriot missiles “provocative”, and Russia said the move could increase risks in the conflict.

Iran has steadfastly supported Syrian President Bashar al-Assad throughout the 20-month-old uprising against his rule.

Turkey’s missile request may have riled Damascus because it could be seen as a first step toward implementing a no-fly zone over Syrian airspace.

Syrian rebels have been requesting a no-fly zone to help them hold territory against a government with overwhelming firepower from the air, but most foreign governments are reluctant to get sucked into the conflict.

Turkey fears security on its border may crumble as the Syrian army fights harder against the rebels, some of whom have enjoyed sanctuary in Turkey.

Heavy fighting has often erupted along Syria’s border with Turkey. Ankara has scrambled fighter jets and returned fire after stray Syrian shells and mortar bombs landed in its territory.

Turkish Foreign Minister Ahmet Davutoglu said on Sunday no one should be concerned by the use of Patriots.

“These systems are solely defensive mechanisms, and will not become active unless there is a direct threat to our country’s security,” Davutoglu said, speaking to CNN Turk.

“The aim of this action is to protect Turkey’s borders as much as possible at a time of crisis. The Patriots will be sent back when the risks to Turkey’s security disappear.”

(Reporting by Yeganeh Torbati in Dubai, additional reporting by Ece Toksabay in Istanbul; editing by Andrew Roche)

Israel successfully tests David’s Sling’s inte… JPost – Defense.

Turkey confirms holding back channel reconciliation talks with Israel | The Times of Israel.

( As repugnant as it is, Israel would do well to  “bury the hatchet” with Turkey.  At least until Iran is removed from the equation. – JW )

Foreign Minister Ahmet Davutoğlu says Jerusalem reached out to Ankara and envoys met in Geneva

Turkey Foreign Minister Ahmet Davutoglu (photo credit: AP/Hakan Goktepe/Turkish Foreign Ministry)

Turkish Foreign Minister Ahmet Davutoğlu on Sunday confirmed media reports that Ankara and Jerusalem recently engaged in reconciliation talks, despite heightened tension between the two countries over Operation Pillar of Defense.

According to a report published on Sunday in Haaretz, former Foreign Ministry director Joseph Ciechanover met in Geneva this week with Turkish Foreign Ministry Director Feridun Sinirlioğlu to discuss ending the diplomatic impasse. The meeting was reportedly supposed to take place weeks ago, but was delayed.

Davutoğlu acknowledged the back-channel talks between Israel and Turkey to Turkish daily Today’s Zaman, saying they took place prior to Pillar of Defense and were initiated by Jerusalem. Turkey’s foreign minister added that Israel must meet Turkey’s demands in order for the country to mend ties.

Israel and Turkey enjoyed close diplomatic and business relations for years until the May 2010 Gaza flotilla incident, in which clashes between pro-Palestinian activists and IDF soldiers aboard the Mavi Marmara resulted in the deaths of nine Turkish citizens and several injured IDF soldiers.

Relations between Ankara and Jerusalem have since turned sour, with Turkey demanding an apology and compensation for the families of those killed as a prerequisite for the renewal of ties. During last week’s operation, Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdoğan lambasted Israel, calling it a “terrorist state” for bombarding the Gaza Strip.

“I say that Israel is a terrorist state, and its acts are terrorist acts,” Erdoğan charged.

Davutoğlu said Sunday that Turkey’s stance was clear and that its demands were not open to negotiation or discussion. The Netanyahu administration, which sent  Ciechanover as an envoy, has thus far refused to accede to Turkey’s demands.

A report quoted by Today’s Zaman from Turkish newspaper Yeni Şafak — which is closely associated with the ruling Justice and Development Party – indicated that Turkey also demanded that Israel lift the Gaza blockade. According to Yeni Şafak, Israel reportedly indicated willingness should Turkey be a guarantor of Hamas non-belligerence. Davutoğlu did not comment on the report, and the Israeli Foreign Ministry was not available for comment.

Former Foreign Ministry director Alon Liel told The Times of Israel that “based on the fact that the situation inside Egypt is unstable again, the talks with Turkey are becoming extremely important. I believe that the possibility for an Israeli apology will emerge after the January 2013 elections.”

“The whole Gaza blockade looks different now after the recent cease fire agreement with the Hamas, and this might enable a breakthrough,” Liel, a former Israeli ambassador to Turkey, added.

Contrary to suggestions that Turkey was sidelined during the Egyptian-mediated ceasefire talks that ended Operation Pillar of Defense, Davutoğlu said that “Turkey took an active part in the process. There was contact with the Israeli side to end the fighting in Gaza, which was causing human suffering. If there is a possibility to end a human tragedy, Turkey will talk with anybody.”

Davutoğlu’s admission of contact with Israel outside the framework of Gaza ceasefire talks contradicted Erdoğan’s statement at the beginning of Pillar of Defense that “there is no such thing as ‘our relations’” with Israel.

Sudan to move arms site reportedly bombed by Israel | The Times of Israel.

( Hams would have moved it under a hospital… – JW )

Official says Yarmouk military complex being relocated from capital

The Yarmouk military complex in Khartoum, Sudan, seen in a satellite image made on October 12, 2012, prior to the alleged attack (photo credit: AP/DigitalGlobe via Satellite Sentinel Project)

KHARTOUM, Sudan (AP) — A Sudanese official says a military factory in the capital which Khartoum claims was bombed by Israel will be relocated away from residential areas.

Khartoum governor Abdul Rahman al-Khedr was quoted Sunday by the official SUNA news agency as saying authorities have located a new site and began steps to move the Yarmouk factory. He said the alleged strike will not weaken Sudan’s resolve to be militarily self-sufficient.

Israel has not commented on last month’s explosion that killed four people. Military analysts say it does appear to be an Israeli attack, and a U.S.-based monitoring group has said satellite imagery suggests it was an airstrike.

Israeli officials say that Iran ships arms through Sudan to its regional adversaries. Sudan has denied any Iranian connection to the factory’s production.

Hamas Manufactures Longer-Range M75 Missiles – Defense/Security – News – Israel National News.

Building in Rishon LeZion hit by Gaza missile

Uzi Perlmutter, News 24

The recent Pillar of Defense counter terror offensive against the terrorist infrastructure in Gaza was a win for Israel in numerous ways. Launched with the assassination of the key figure in the Izz a-Din al Qassam military wing of Hamas, Ahmed Jaabari, the eight-day operation was conducted primarily from the air.

Hamas terrorists said they fired 1,573 rockets and missiles at Israel, while the IDF struck more than 1,500 terrorist targets in Gaza.

Those included 19 terrorist command centers, operational control centers and Hamas senior-rank headquarters, 26 weapons manufacturing and storage facilities, and hundreds of underground rocket launchers. In addition, 30 senior operatives were eliminated, as were 140 smuggling tunnels, 66 terror tunnels and dozens of Hamas operations rooms and bases. Of the 177 people that were killed, 120 were known terrorists, according to the IDF.

But an equally important aspect of the operation was the additional information it revealed.

For the first time, Iran openly boasted – and in fact, confirmed – that it had supplied “both financial and military” assistance to Hamas and other terrorist groups in Gaza.

Iranian Revolutionary Guards chief Mohammad Ali Jaafari said Tehran had shared the technology for the Fajr-5 missiles – meaning that they could be “rapidly produced” on site in Gaza.

In addition, it became known that 200mm diameter “M75” missiles, with a range of up to 80 kilometers (about 50 miles) were being manufactured locally in Gaza — also using technology provided by Iran.

It was the “homemade” Hamas M75 missiles that Gaza terrorists fired at Jerusalem, and which missed the mark and exploded instead in Gush Etzion last week.

Hamas fired Iranian Fajr-5 missiles, with a range of up to 75 kilometers (about 47 miles) at Tel Aviv, and at Rishon LeZion. The parts were smuggled in from Iran, through routes that came through Sudan and Egypt, and then under the border via the tunnels, even during the operation itself.

Egypt has pledged the close the tunnels as part of the ceasefire agreement between Israel and Hamas.

But there were 1,200 known tunnels when the operation began. And even if Egypt is motivated to do so, closing them all will be a difficult task, if not impossible. Moreover, ordnance can and has been smuggled in by sea.

Knowing the scope of the military technology that now exists in the region, and the identity and level of training of those now present to advise the terrorist groups, is equally important. That knowledge is what has kept Israeli soldiers alive, what has enabled the IDF to effectively plan military offensives, and likely went into the decision to defer a ground operation to the future.

Time for Israel to take risks for peace – Israel News | Haaretz Daily Newspaper.

( This dirtbag  Brit could even teach Jews about “chzpah.”  Let HIM take risks with his people.  We already did at Oslo, and are still paying the price. – JW )

Ultimately there can be no military solution to this crisis. Israel needs a strategy for building peace and not just tactics for winning the next round of war.

News of a cease-fire is, of course, to be welcomed. However, this is not the end of the diplomatic work but only the beginning. This temporary truce must now be turned into a durable peace if we are not, in time, to witness even more suffering and loss of life.

The recent rocket attacks on the civilian population of southern Israel deserve our categoric condemnation. Last year when I visited a school in the Eshkol region, the very concept of a school with bomb shelters and bullet-proof windows was abhorrent to me. Theirs was a quiet suffering that too often gets ignored and can never be excused.

Israel has a right to defend itself against rocket attacks. No community should have to live in constant fear. But Israel’s citizens can never be truly protected by military means alone. Ordinary Israelis and Palestinians deserve more than an inevitably fragile cease-fire that only temporarily ensures their security.

This was the logic of Operation Cast Lead four years ago, but that strategy has been found wanting. Israel’s stated aim for that Operation was to “destroy the apparatus of terror.” Yet, four years on, Hamas still rules Gaza and thousands of missiles have been launched since 2009: in recent days alone, rockets have reached Tel Aviv and the outskirts of Jerusalem.

Operation Cast Lead not only caused huge suffering and loss of life, it also weakened Israel’s support in the international community. And few today in Sderot, Ashkelon or now Tel Aviv, again living in fear of rocket attack, will be convinced it succeeded in guaranteeing their protection.

Some will argue that no one – certainly not a foreign politician – who has not experienced the daily threat of rocket attacks has the right to offer views on the present situation. Others will say that so soon after rockets have fallen and bombs have gone off, now is not the time to look beyond a military response.

Israel of course will reach its own decisions, but undoubtedly the decisions on how to respond to those latest attacks will have an impact on the prospects for guaranteeing Israel’s long term security – which relies on more than just defending itself against present threats.

There is and can be no military solution to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. Only a political resolution to this conflict will provide the security that Israelis, and Palestinians, crave and rightly deserve.

For Israel, permanent occupation, repeated incursions and ongoing blockades is not a strategy for peace. It is a recipe for repeated conflict. And for the Palestinians, ongoing rocket attacks, continued questioning of Israel’s right to exist, and divided leadership, will bring no hope of progress.

But after decades of diplomatic failure, we must also acknowledge that some are questioning whether a two-state solution is even possible.

Today the fear of the Israeli population stands alongside the suffering of the Palestinian people. Hope struggles to survive. That was one lesson taught to me by the school teacher I met in the Eshkol Regional High School last year. She was exactly the kind of caring and wise woman you hope will teach your own kids. She told me that her job was to teach children the curriculum, but she felt impelled to try and teach them something else. She told me her ambition was that no child leave her classroom believing that the Palestinian children on the other side of the border were the enemy. Given the constant threat of rockets, hers is a difficult task, and she admitted to me that she feared that without political change she would fail in her ambition.

We must make sure that she succeeds. Israel has shown its willingness to take military action. Now is exactly the time to show it is also ready to take bold diplomatic action.

Many Israelis are inevitably frustrated that past offers for peace and painful compromises have failed to yield results. But despite diplomatic setbacks, it is only politics that offers a way forward. And after decades of diplomatic failure, with the region more fragile and febrile than for decades, there is another reason once again to take risks for peace.

As an international community, we must do whatever it takes to ensure the Palestinians – despite the despair, the disappointments and the setbacks – take the path of politics and not the path of violence in pursuit of statehood.

That is why the British Labour Party will support the Palestinian bid for enhanced status at the United Nations later this month.

We see this not as an alternative to negotiations but as a bridge for beginning these negotiations. Rather than creating another fault line with Israel, recognition can and must be used as way of restarting the peace process.

Some argue that recognition at the UN could “risk paralyzing the process.” But at present, there is no process – there is only paralysis. Palestinian recognition offers a way to embed politics as the way forward, entrench the principle of a two-state solution, and build serious negotiations from there about how this goal can be achieved.

Ultimately there can be no military solution to this crisis. Israel needs a strategy for building peace and not just tactics for winning the next round of war.

The writer is the British Shadow Foreign Secretary and Labour MP for Paisley and Renfrewshire South.

Hezbollah: Tel Aviv will be hit with thousands of rockets if Israel attacked Lebanon – Israel News | Haaretz Daily Newspaper.

Israel Hayom | ‘Last operation was practice run for conflict with Iran’.

Hezbollah threatens to hit central Israel in future war | The Times of Israel.

Hassan Nasrallah warns of ‘thousands of rockets that will fall on Tel Aviv and other areas’

Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah (screen shot: Press TV)

BEIRUT (AP) — The leader of Lebanon’s Hezbollah says the militant group would fire thousands of rockets into Israel and hit cities in the country’s heartland in any future war.

Sheik Hassan Nasrallah’s comments came days after an eight-day Israeli offensive against Gaza ended with a truce.

Israeli aircraft launched some 1,500 strikes on targets linked to the Palestinian territory’s Hamas rulers and other groups, while Gaza militants fired roughly the same number of rockets into Israel. Some Iranian-made Fajr-5 rockets targeted the cities of Tel Aviv and Jerusalem for the first time.

Nasrallah said in a speech in Beirut Sunday that Israel will face “thousands of rockets that will fall on Tel Aviv and other areas if it launches an aggression against Lebanon.”

Israel and Hezbollah fought a 34-day war in 2006.

Copyright 2012 The Associated Press.

Hezbollah and Hamas Are Not Alone.

Atai Shelach

(Photo: AP)

In the past two years, states have found it increasingly difficult to assert their sovereignty over lawless areas. Terrorism is taking root in these ungoverned expanses, and is benefitting from advanced weapons that are within reach.

Hezbollah’s takeover of Lebanon exemplifies this trend. Built on a radical religious ideology, the organization established its headquarters in a weak country, growing with little interference, to become one of the world’s most notorious terrorist organizations. Hezbollah consolidated its strength within the borders of the host state, ‘incubating’ for a time by exploiting Lebanon’s weaknesses. It then established and operated through “institutionalized” organizations within the government’s entities, and eventually went on to operate within Lebanon’s military sphere. Hamas is another example of a group that has risen and grown in strength within the Palestinian borders. Originally a terror organization, it later developed into one with state and political sponsorship. Replicating Hezbollah’s pattern of activity, Hamas took ideology, loosely controlled territory, and a Zionist enemy (as a scapegoat to gain public legitimacy) to build its organization.

These two are the more widely known examples, but Hezbollah and Hamas are not alone. In the framework of the Arab Spring, terrorist entities have begun to spring up in uncontrolled territory – a phenomenon stemming from the weakened regimes. As the revolutions disrupt government order, various organizations are taking advantage of the opportunity to utilize their operational capabilities and popularity within the population to establish pockets of control.

How does this method differ from the past? First, it is important to note that the terrorist groups are not new – existing groups are exploiting the present chaos. They are slowly taking hold by using state or local assets as bases to train, gather weapons, strengthen, prepare, and eventually embark on terror missions.

Advanced weapons represent an essential issue in the organizations’ development. One of the main goals of every terror organization is to strengthen its position by acquiring better weapons. Terror groups are working day and night to keep their weapon supply routes open: from smuggling, acquisition, theft, and even the establishment of improvised workshops for weapons production. In most cases, they invest considerable energy to obtain advanced state-level weapons to upgrade their operational capabilities and to advance their world standing.

In this new reality, the time needed to obtain weapons and operational capability is very short. Usually, terror organizations need considerable time to achieve operational readiness due to geographic constraints, close supervision, the absence of training facilities and available weapons, and other reasons. In this new reality, the organizations already exist, training facilities and “fire areas” are abundant, supervision is lax, and weapons (including very advanced ones) are relatively available – allowing terror organizations to reach operational effectiveness very quickly.

The “Playgrounds”

Syria established numerous defensive infrastructures at the national level, and at the tactical and campaign echelons over the past four decades. According to foreign sources, terror organizations such as Al Qaeda and Hezbollah are already based in Syria. The demilitarized buffer zone, based on agreements signed in 1974 after the Yom Kippur War, has long since turned into “officer residence neighborhoods” (military facilities). The day is not far – and may have already arrived – when various organizations establish terror dens close to Israel’s border in these “neighborhoods.”

There is a greater concern with regards to Syria that advanced weapons might find their way to various terror groups. Syria is teeming with advanced weapons, with an emphasis on its artillery rocket layout. One does not need much of an imagination to envision what might happen if they end up possessing even some of the existing measures.

Syria’s rebels already hold part of the country’s enormous stockpile of advanced weapons. It is quite possible that these weapons will reach (or have already reached) a terrorist organization. Given the increasingly volatile situation, not much more is needed for terror forces to direct fire against Israel as well. The motivation already exists, the weapons are present, and the territorial proximity is convenient, to say the least. The restraining elements that once existed, such as acentral government and regime, are nearly nonexistent, as most of Assad’s remaining energy is directed at the rebel forces.

Much has already been said about the smuggling relationship between Syria and Hezbollah. One of the more worrying phenomena, which may gain momentum in the absence of effective Syrian leadership, is the acceleration of the smuggling and delivery of weapons, especially advanced weapons, to Hezbollah.
Given the situation in Syria, it would be far easier for militant groups to obtain advanced weapons in large quantities and then transfer them to Hezbollah or another organization in Syria interested in attacking Israel.

Beyond weapons, Syria’s territory and its existing defense infrastructure, including advanced training areas and facilities, will enable terror organizations to train, gain strength, and establish numerous operational capabilities and qualifications.

In the Back Yard
The integration of terror organizations, defensive infrastructure, the close proximity to Israel’s territory, and the absence of state governance and sovereignty pose a serious threat to Israel, which could come from a terror attack from Syria or Egypt, or from weapons smuggled from other countries.

Given the existing and potential threats, a wide range of activities should be evaluated, starting from intelligence and up to operational considerations. What is important is to understand and internalize these threats and their techno-operational implications, and what far-reaching and troubling implications terror attacks utilizing state capabilities may have.