WarSclerotic

Jerusalem Post – Breaking News.

( Debka wrong?  You’re kidding… – JW )

“The armed forces confirms entrenched Egyptian national security policies to preserve its sovereignty. It doesn’t accept the presence of foreign forces on its land,” Ali reportedly posted to his Facebook page.

He added that the only foreign forces based in Sinai are multinational ones, which have been located there since Israel’s withdrawal from the Peninsula in 1982 in accordance with the peace treaty with Egypt.

The report also was denied by Egyptian military attache in Washington, Major General Mohamed al-Keshki.

Military Dictatorship replaced by Totalitarian Theocracy – Arab Spring? – YouTube.

“The Muslim Brotherhood didn’t act as a leader when the Egyptian revolutions started, but it somehow managed to take a leading position and place itself at head. Now, if we exclude the Muslim Brotherhood, then we wil not find any leader at all,” Middle East expert Leonid Syukiyanen told RT.

But journalist Ahmed Fathi believes military rule in Egypt has simply been replaced by another kind of dictatorship.

“What Mohamad Morsi has done, Mubarak in the height of his power could not even dream of achieving,” Fathi told RT. “The Egyptians now are seeing clearly they have replaced the military-fascist regime of Hosni Mubarak into the religious-fascist regime of Mohamed Morsi and the Muslim Brotherhood.”

Meanwhile, the United Nations said the decree raised serious human rights concerns.

http://rt.com/news/egypt-protests-morsi-march-420/

Repairs begin on Gaza’s smuggling tunnels.

Friday, 23 November 2012

Rafah’s tunnel workers return to a crater strewn landscape after eight days of bombing by Israel. (Reuters)

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Youths, police clash as Egyptian judiciary… JPost – Middle East.

( So go elect the Moslem brotherhood?  Sorry, Egypt… – JW )

Photo: REUTERS

Diplomacy: Shifting sands – JPost – Features – Week in review.

For Israel, Gaza Conflict Is Test for an Iran Confrontation – NYTimes.com.

Menahem Kahana/Agence France-Presse — Getty Images

An Israeli missile is launched from a battery. Officials said their antimissile system shot down 88 percent of all assigned targets.

By DAVID E. SANGER and THOM SHANKER

Published: November 22, 2012

It is Iran, of course, that most preoccupies Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and President Obama. While disagreeing on tactics, both have made it clear that time is short, probably measured in months, to resolve the standoff over Iran’s nuclear program.

And one key to their war-gaming has been cutting off Iran’s ability to slip next-generation missiles into the Gaza Strip or Lebanon, where they could be launched by Iran’s surrogates, Hamas, Hezbollah and Islamic Jihad, during any crisis over sanctions or an Israeli strike on Iran’s nuclear facilities.

Michael B. Oren, the Israeli ambassador to the United States and a military historian, likened the insertion of Iranian missiles into Gaza to the Cuban missile crisis.

“In the Cuban missile crisis, the U.S. was not confronting Cuba, but rather the Soviet Union,” Mr. Oren said Wednesday, as the cease-fire was declared. “In Operation Pillar of Defense,” the name the Israel Defense Force gave the Gaza operation, “Israel was not confronting Gaza, but Iran.”

It is an imprecise analogy. What the Soviet Union was slipping into Cuba 50 years ago was a nuclear arsenal. In Gaza, the rockets and parts that came from Iran were conventional, and, as the Israelis learned, still have significant accuracy problems. But from one point of view, Israel was using the Gaza battle to learn the capabilities of Hamas and Islamic Jihad — the group that has the closest ties to Iran — as well as to disrupt those links.

Indeed, the first strike in the eight-day conflict between Hamas and Israel arguably took place nearly a month before the fighting began — in Khartoum, the capital of Sudan, as another mysterious explosion in the shadow war with Iran.

A factory said to be producing light arms blew up in spectacular fashion on Oct. 22, and within two days the Sudanese charged that it had been hit by four Israeli warplanes that easily penetrated the country’s airspace. Israelis will not talk about it. But Israeli and American officials maintain that Sudan has long been a prime transit point for smuggling Iranian Fajr rockets, the kind that Hamas launched against Tel Aviv and Jerusalem over recent days.

The missile defense campaign that ensued over Israeli territory is being described as the most intense yet in real combat anywhere — and as having the potential to change warfare in the same way that novel applications of air power in the Spanish Civil War shaped combat in the skies ever since.

Of course, a conflict with Iran, if a last-ditch effort to restart negotiations fails, would look different than what has just occurred. Just weeks before the outbreak in Gaza, the United States and European and Persian Gulf Arab allies were practicing at sea, working on clearing mines that might be dropped in shipping lanes in the Strait of Hormuz.

But in the Israeli and American contingency planning, Israel would face three tiers of threat in a conflict with Iran: the short-range missiles that have been lobbed in this campaign, medium-range rockets fielded by Hezbollah in Lebanon and long-range missiles from Iran.

The last of those three could include the Shahab-3, the missile Israeli and American intelligence believe could someday be fitted with a nuclear weapon if Iran ever succeeded in developing one and — the harder task — shrinking it to fit a warhead.

A United States Army air defense officer said that the American and Israeli militaries were “absolutely learning a lot” from this campaign that may contribute to a more effective “integration of all those tiered systems into a layered approach.”

The goal, and the challenge, is to link short-, medium- and long-range missile defense radar systems and interceptors against the different types of threats that may emerge in the next conflict.

Even so, a historic battle of missile versus missile defense has played out in the skies over Israel, with Israeli officials saying their Iron Dome system shot down 350 incoming rockets — 88 percent of all targets assigned to the missile defense interceptors. Israeli officials declined to specify the number of interceptors on hand to reload their missile-defense batteries.

Before the conflict began, Hamas was estimated to have amassed an arsenal of 10,000 to 12,000 rockets. Israeli officials say their pre-emptive strikes on Hamas rocket depots severely reduced the arsenal of missiles, both those provided by Iran and some built in Gaza on a Syrian design.

But Israeli military officials emphasize that most of the approximately 1,500 rockets fired by Hamas in this conflict were on trajectories toward unpopulated areas. The radar tracking systems of Iron Dome are intended to quickly discriminate between those that are hurtling toward a populated area and strays not worth expending a costly interceptor to knock down.

“This discrimination is a very important part of all missile defense systems,” said the United States Army expert, who spoke on the condition of anonymity to describe current military assessments. “You want to ensure that you’re going to engage a target missile that is heading toward a defended footprint, like a populated area. This clearly has been a validation of the Iron Dome system’s capability.”

¶ The officer and other experts said that Iran also was certain to be studying the apparent inability of the rockets it supplied to Hamas to effectively strike targets in Israel, and could be expected to re-examine the design of that weapon for improvements.

¶ Israel currently fields five Iron Dome missile defense batteries, each costing about $50 million, and wants to more than double the number of batteries. In the past two fiscal years, the United States has given about $275 million in financial assistance to the Iron Dome program. Replacement interceptors cost tens of thousands of dollars each.

¶ Just three weeks ago, Gen. Martin E. Dempsey, chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, visited an Iron Dome site as a guest of his Israeli counterpart during the largest American-Israeli joint military exercise ever. For the three-week exercise, called Austere Challenge, American military personnel operated Patriot land-based missile defense batteries on temporary deployment to Israel as well as Aegis missile defense ships, which carry tracking radars and interceptors.

¶ Despite its performance during the current crisis, though, Iron Dome has its limits.

¶ It is specifically designed to counter only short-range rockets, those capable of reaching targets at a distance of no more than 50 miles. Israel is developing a medium-range missile defense system, called David’s Sling, which was tested in computer simulations during the recent American-Israeli exercise, and has fielded a long-range system called Arrow. “Nobody has really had to manage this kind of a battle before,” said Jeffrey White, a defense fellow for the Washington Institute for Near East Policy. “There are lots of rockets coming in all over half the country, and there are all different kinds of rockets being fired.”

Israel’s Gaza Offensive Was A Tune-up for Iran – Business Insider.

Israel’s eight-day Gaza offensive was a dry run for any future armed confrontation with Iran, U.S. and Israeli officials told The New York Times.

“In Operation Pillar of Defense, Israel was not confronting Gaza, but Iran,” Israeli ambassador to the U.S. States and military historian Michael B. Oren told the Times.

The Israel Defense Forces (IDF) employed F-16 fighter jets to drop bunker-busting bombs on underground tunnels as well as Apache helicopters and drones to hit more than 1,500 targets in Gaza.

The first strike of the conflict may have been Oct. 22 when fighter jets bombed an Iranian arms factory in Sudan. Israel has been mum about the strike, but everyone from Sudan to the U.N. believes four Israeli stealth jets targeted the factory because it was used to supply arms — including Fajr rockets like those fired at Tel Aviv and Jerusalem — to Hamas in Gaza.

Learning and reducing the capabilities of Iran’s surrogates — Hamas and (especially) Islamic Jihad in Gaza and Hezbollah in Lebanon — is important to Israel because those groups would contribute to the 200,000 rockets and missiles that could strike Israel during any military confrontation with Iran.

And as Moran Stern wrote in The Atlantic, the operation also went toward preparing Israel’s military and populace for consequences that would follow a strike on Iran’s nuclear facilities.

Israel’s Iron Dome, partially funded by the U.S., intercepted 84 percent of the 1,506 rockets fired from Gaza that were targeted, but it wouldn’t deter Hezbollah’s medium-range rockets or Iran’s long-range missiles because it is designed to counter only short-range rockets launched from 50 miles of less.

“The general lesson is that missile defense is effective, it can work,” said Uzi Rubin, the former head of Israel’s missile defense program, told The Washington Post. “But Iron Dome has nothing to do with threats from Iran.”

To that end Israel is developing a medium-range missile defense system, called David’s Sling, which was tested in computer simulations during the recent American-Israeli exercise (i.e. Austere Challenge), and has fielded a long-range system called Arrow.

“Nobody has really had to manage this kind of a battle before,” Jeffrey White, a defense fellow for the Washington Institute for Near East Policy, told the Times. “There [would be] lots of rockets coming in all over half the country, and there are all different kinds of rockets being fired.”

Operation Pillar of Cloud likely decimated Hamas’ arsenal of 10,000 to 12,000 rockets, but the offensive didn’t come close to the firepower and strategy needed to attack Iran.

What it did was bring the U.S. deeper into the mix: Secretary of State Hillary Clinton helped prevent a Israeli ground invasion, three U.S. warships were sent to Israel and President Barack Obama told Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu the U.S. would intensify efforts to help Israel address the smuggling of weapons and explosives into Gaza.

Obama overture possible to ease relations with Iran over nuclear program, analysts say – latimes.com.

At a meeting of the Clinton Global Initiative in New York two months ago, President Obama vowed to do whatever it takes to prevent Iran from developing a nuclear weapon. Some analysts believe a window of opportunity may open soon to make progress in stalled negotiations with Tehran. (Jin Lee / Bloomberg)

By Carol J. Williams

A multi-front campaign to prevent Iran from developing a nuclear weapon has been stalled for months by the distractions of a U.S. presidential campaign, Tehran’s stop-and-go negotiating tactics and its role in deadly clashes in Syria and Gaza.  Now that President Obama has a fresh four-year mandate and Iran’s influence with Middle East neighbors seems to be fading, Tehran is expected back at the negotiating table soon and, some observers believe, in a more constructive mood to resolve the nuclear standoff.

The Obama administration now has wider latitude for tackling one of its most complicated relationships. No longer shackled by the hawkish politicking of Republican presidential challenger Mitt Romney, Obama could make an overture to Tehran to get negotiations back on track at a time when Iranian leaders need a face-saving escape from withering sanctions.

Multinational talks with Iran on its nuclear ambitions have been idle since June, as Tehran has refused to accede to the demands of foreign diplomats that it cease enriching uranium even for peaceful purposes like power generation and production of medical isotopes. The European Union’s foreign policy chief, Catherine Ashton, met Wednesday with diplomats from the six powers involved in the talks–the United States, Britain, France, Russia, China and Germany–and was exchanging missives with Tehran about a possible resumption of talks in December, EUobserver.com reported Friday.

“If Obama wants to create a legacy in foreign policy, he has an opportunity to do that if he can resolve the Iran dilemma,” said Iranian exile Najmedin Meshkati, a USC engineering professor and former advisor to the U.S. State Department office responsible for technology issues. Even as Iran may be pushed by sanctions that have halved oil exports and sent the rial currency into a freefall, the all-stick and no-carrot approach to negotiations isn’t likely to succeed, Meshkati predicted.

The ruling elite in Iran is untouched by the food shortages and soaring prices making life for average Iranians miserable, Meshkati said of his homeland, where he has maintained ties with family and academic colleagues during 30 years in exile.

“Iran’s pursuit of nuclear technology and its advancement of enrichment are not based on calculated economic study,” he said. “It’s based on very complicated security calculations and other factors, like national pride.”

Tehran is unlikely to engage in direct talks with U.S. diplomats without some inducement, he said. For example, he said, Washington could suspend the sanction preventing Iran from buying spare parts and maintenance services from U.S. suppliers for its aging fleet of Boeing aircraft. That would make civilian air travel safer, boost U.S.-made component sales and keep Iran as a U.S. aviation customer rather than driving it to convert to an Airbus fleet.

“Iran has said some element of enrichment is nonnegotiable, that it’s permitted under the Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty for civilian uses,” Meshkati said. “They feel if they let that chip go that they will lose face. What do they have to show the Iranian people, who are struggling, if they come to the table to negotiate away something that is their right?”

It’s been three months since the International Atomic Energy Agency gave up on its separate effort to ensure that Iran’s nuclear program remains peaceful. IAEA Deputy Director General Herman Nackaerts expressed frustration after the last meeting in August failed to secure access for United Nations inspectors to the Parchin facility. Satellite surveillance of the base suggests Iran has been trying to clean up traces of a nuclear bomb test there nearly a decade ago. The Vienna-based agency reported this week, though, that Nackaerts would be meeting Iran’s chief nuclear negotiator on Dec. 13.

The moves to resurrect negotiations may have been spurred by recent reports that Tehran has doubled the number of centrifuges for uranium enrichment, though not all are operational. It has also stepped up processing to accumulate 110 kilograms of the nuclear fuel enriched to 20%, putting Iran about halfway to the 200-250 kilograms that nuclear experts say would be needed to make a single bomb.

IAEA Director General Yukiya Amano said in a report last week that the harsh economic sanctions imposed by the United States and the European Union appeared to be having no effect on Iran’s pace of fuel production.

Gaukhar Mukhatzhanova, an expert on Iran’s nuclear program at the Center for Nonproliferation Studies at the Monterey Institute of International Studies, sees a promising convergence of influences that could lead to more productive talks on the future course of nuclear development in Iran.

“The timing might be right now,” said Mukhatzhanova, pointing to what she sees as Iran’s conscious decision to keep enrichment stable and well below the volumes needed for weapons production. “There are signs within Iran that negotiations with the United States are not anathema. The head of the judiciary said recently that Iran should negotiate for its own benefit.”

She referred to Ayatollah Sadegh Larijani, who said this month that direct talks with the United States shouldn’t be ruled out if 30-plus years of accumulated grievances are to be resolved.

Report: Egypt army officers back anti-Morsi protests – Israel News, Ynetnews.

(Moslem Bros first overreach? – JW )

During protests against Egyptian president’s decision to grant himself sweeping powers, group of ‘army officers’ distributes leaflets saying, ‘Legitimacy is on your side. We’ll protect homeland with our lives’

Roi Kais

The Egyptian army is beginning to intervene in favor of the public protest against President Mohammed Morsi decision to grant himself far-reaching powers, the London-based Arabic-language newspaper Al-Quds Al-Arabi reported Saturday.

According to the report, the “Officers of the Egyptian Army” organization distributed leaflets during Friday’s demonstrations saying the protests were “legitimate.” However, the army has yet to respond officially to Morsi’s decree, which exempts all his decisions from legal challenge until a new parliament is elected.AP contributed to the report

“We swear to Allah that we are not traitors and do not cooperate with anyone’s agendas,” the “officers” said in the leaflets. “We are loyal sons of the homeland.”

“Egypt is in your hands now,” the leaflets read. “We are not seeking positions or a revolt against legitimacy. We swore to protect the homeland with our lives. Now the legitimacy is on your side.”

Supporters and opponents of President Morsi clashed Friday in the worst violence since he took office, while he defended a decision to give himself near-absolute power to root out what he called “weevils eating away at the nation of Egypt.”

Anti-Morsi protesters riot in Cairo (Photo: AFP)

The edicts by Morsi, which were issued Thursday, have turned months of growing polarization into an open battle between his Muslim Brotherhood and liberals who fear a new dictatorship. Some in the opposition, which has been divided and weakened, were now speaking of a sustained street campaign against the man who nearly five months ago became Egypt’s first freely elected president.

The unrest also underscored the struggle over the direction of Egypt’s turbulent passage nearly two years after a popular uprising toppled Hosni Mubarak’s authoritarian regime. Liberals and secular Egyptians accuse the Brotherhood of monopolizing power, dominating the writing of a new constitution and failing to tackle the country’s chronic economic and security problems.

“I don’t like, want or need to resort to exceptional measures, but I will if I see that my people, nation and the revolution of Egypt are in danger,” Morsi told thousands of his chanting supporters outside the presidential palace in Cairo.

But even before he spoke, thousands from each camp demonstrated in major cities, and violence broke out in several places, leaving at least 100 wounded, according to security officials.

‘Leave, leave.’ Cairo protest against Morsi (Photo: AFP)

Security forces pumped volleys of tear gas at thousands of pro-democracy protesters clashing with riot police on streets several blocks from Cairo’s Tahrir Square, birthplace of the Arab Spring, and in front of the nearby parliament building. Young protesters set fire to tree branches to counter the gas, and a residential building and a police vehicle also were burned.

Tens of thousands of activists massed in Tahrir itself, denouncing Morsi. In a throwback to last year’s 18-day anti-Mubarak uprising, they chanted the iconic slogan first heard in Tunisia in late 2010: “The people want to overthrow the regime.” They also yelled “erhal, erhal,” – Arabic for “leave, leave.”

Groups of protesters were still seen throughout Cairo on Saturday morning.

Morsi and the Brotherhood contend that supporters of the old regime are holding up progress toward democracy. They have focused on the judiciary, which many Egyptians see as too much under the sway of Mubarak-era judges and prosecutors and which has shaken up the political process several times with its rulings, including by dissolving the lower house of parliament, which the Brotherhood led.

His edicts effectively shut down the judiciary’s ability to do so again. At the same time, the courts were the only civilian branch of government with a degree of independence: Morsi already holds not only executive power but also legislative authority, since there is no parliament.

In his decrees, Morsi ruled that any decisions and laws he has declared or will declare are immune to appeal in the courts and cannot be overturned or halted. He also barred the judiciary from dissolving the upper house of parliament or the assembly writing the new constitution, both of which are dominated by the Brotherhood and other Islamists.

The edicts would be in effect until a new constitution is approved and parliamentary elections are held, which are not expected until the spring.

Morsi also declared his power to take any steps necessary to prevent “threats to the revolution,” public safety or the workings of state institutions. Rights activists warned that the vague – and unexplained – wording could give him even greater authority than Mubarak had under emergency laws throughout his rule.

Hamas: Truce agreement says nothing about stopping the flow of weapons into Gaza | The Times of Israel.

Izzat al-Rishq, a member of the terror group’s political bureau, says Israel is trying to protect its image after defeat

Hamas official Izzat al-Rishq (photo credit: PressTV, YouTube screen capture)