WarSclerotic

Terrorist Attack on Bus in Tel Aviv – Defense/Security – News – Israel National News.

Initial report: Terrorist attack on bus in Tel Aviv. More than a dozen wounded

While fighting rages between Israel and Hamas, Hezbollah watches and waits | The Times of Israel.

Analysts say domestic considerations and fallout from the Syrian civil war keep the Lebanon-based organization on the sidelines

Hezbollah supporters wave Hezbollah and Palestinian flags during a demonstration against the Israeli offensive in Gaza near UN headquarters in Beirut, Lebanon, on Saturday, November 17, 2012 (photo credit: AP Photo/Bilal Hussein)

BEIRUT (AP) — While the death toll from the Israel-Gaza conflict has mounted, Hezbollah has offered quiet words of encouragement to the Palestinians, pledging support and calling on Arab states to send them weapons to fight Israel. But beyond that, the Lebanese militant group appears to be staying firmly on the sidelines.

Despite its own formidable missile arsenal and its reputation as the region’s leading anti-Israel resistance force, Hezbollah is approaching the Gaza crisis with caution, mindful that any action it takes could backfire at a time when the group faces unprecedented challenges at home.

The military option appears off the table for Hezbollah. If it were to join Gaza’s Hamas miliants in firing rockets at Israel, it would likely raise an outcry from many in Lebanon accusing the Shiite guerrillas of dragging the country into a war with Israel. When Hezbollah sent an Iranian-made reconnaissance drone over Israel last month, the group boasted of its capabilities — but critics in Lebanon slammed it for embarking on a unilateral adventure that could provoke Israel.

Hezbollah is also hamstrung by the civil war in Syria, which has heavily damaged its reputation. Once praised across the Arab world as its champion against Israel, now many — particularly in the region’s Sunni Muslim majority — see it foremost as the backer of Syrian President Bashar Assad in his bloody crackdown on the uprising that erupted against his rule in March 2011.

Anything Hezbollah says against Israel’s campaign will ring hollow for many. Already Syrian regime opponents have drawn parallels between Israel’s bombardment of Gaza and Assad’s crackdown, posting gruesome pictures on social media sites showing dead children in Syria and Gaza.

“Condemning Israeli violence while standing by a Syrian regime that is killing its own people definitely highlights the hypocrisy of Hezbollah’s Syria stance. It will further sink its standing in the Arab street,” said Randa Slim, a research fellow at the New America Foundation in Washington.

Activists say close to 40,000 people have been killed in 20 months of fighting in Syria. The brutal campaign by Assad’s regime against the Sunni-dominated uprising has undermined the so-called “Axis of Resistance” — the anti-Israeli and anti-American alliance of Syria, Iran, Hezbollah and Hamas. Embarrassed by the bloodshed, leaders of Sunni Hamas who had been based in Damascus since the late 1990s broke with Syria, sided with the rebels and left for Egypt and Qatar, though Hamas’ fighters in Gaza have continued to receive weapons from Iran.

Still, Hezbollah has tried to use Israel’s campaign in Gaza — launched in an attempt to stop militant rocket fire — to shift the narrative away from Syria and back to its familiar ground of “resistance.”

Hezbollah leader Sheik Hassan Nasrallah pledged his group’s support for Gaza’s Hamas rulers, insisting it was unaffected by disagreements over the conflict in Syria.

“Iran, Syria and Hezbollah will not abandon Gaza and its people, and just as we were with them over the past several years we will continue to stand by them. This is our religious and moral and humanitarian obligation,” he said in a speech to his supporters Monday night.

But far from his traditionally fiery speeches, the black-turbaned Hezbollah chief appeared subdued and bitter. He even implicitly suggested Hamas was ungrateful for the Iranian and Syrian role in supplying it with the longer-range rockets it has used to target Tel Aviv and Jerusalem, adding a jibe at Egypt for its help to Israel in closing the Gaza Strip.

“Despite the blockade imposed by some Arabs, how did the weapons reach Gaza, how did Fajr-5 missiles reach Gaza? … Who sent them? And who transported them?” he said. “We need to ask who enabled Gaza to stand on its feet today, to fight and make surprises and to shell Tel Aviv and Jerusalem and to fire at planes and battleships.”

He also accused Arabs of a double standard. “The Arabs are sending truckloads and shiploads of weapons to the Syrian opposition, but they do not even dare to send one bullet to Gaza for fear of upsetting Israel and the Americans,” he said.

Founded in 1982 with Iranian support to fight Israel’s invasion of Lebanon, Hezbollah has since grown into one of the most robust, organized and sophisticated resistance groups in the world with a small army of about 6,000 fighters.

In 2000, it succeeded in driving Israeli occupation forces out of south Lebanon following an attrition war that eventually led to the withdrawal. In 2006, the group fought Israel to a standstill, raising the group in the eyes of many in the Arab world to almost iconic status. Hezbollah also gained political power, dominating the current government, which was formed after the group forced the ouster of its Western-backed predecessor.

But at the same time, Hezbollah has come under increasing pressure at home to disarm. Lebanon has become increasingly polarized along multiple lines — Sunnis versus Shiites, the anti-Syrian camp versus the pro-Syrian camp — and pro-Western groups in the country have accused Hezbollah of facilitating political assassinations of anti-Syrian figures in Lebanon.

The uprising in Syria, the main transit point of weapons bought from Iran to Hezbollah, presents the group with its toughest challenge since its inception.

Assad’s fall would be a nightmare scenario for Hezbollah. Any new regime led by the country’s majority Sunni Muslims would likely be hostile to Shiite Muslim Hezbollah. Iran remains the group’s most important patron, but Syria is a crucial supply route. Without it, Hezbollah will struggle to get money and weapons as easily.

Given all the potential dangers, Hezbollah will likely stay on the sidelines of the Hamas-Israel fight, the US security think tank Stratfor said in a report this week. “With Hezbollah uncertain how the Israel-Hamas battle will play out, the group appears to be taking a cautious approach,” it said.

The Texas-based intelligence analysis firm also said it has received indication that Hezbollah has deployed operatives in plainclothes along the border with Israel to monitor the situation and prevent radical Palestinian groups from firing rockets into northern Israel, which would potentially force Hezbollah into a fight if Israel responded.

A Hezbollah official in south Lebanon confirmed the group was on full alert in case of any Israeli attack in light of the Gaza situation, but denied members were policing the border to prevent attacks on Israel.

“This is a job for the army and United Nations peacekeeper, not Hezbollah,” he said, speaking on condition of anonymity because he was not authorized to discuss security issues.

Copyright 2012 The Associated Press.

Op-Ed: Iran and Syria instigate Gaza conflict.

The Middle East crisis escalates as Syria and Iran continues instigating the Gaza conflict. Iran continues trying to rearm Hamas with missiles. Iran and Syria needs Israel to focus more on Hamas militants rather than them.
According to Alhomayed , the Iranians are attempting to escalate the violence on the Israel’s borders with their militant operatives. When they were ineffective on the Syrian and Lebanese fronts, the Iranians selected the Gaza Strip. “When the Golan front failed to progress rapidly enough for al-Assad and Iran, they resorted to the Gaza front, since this region can erupt more rapidly.

However, Iran and Syria’s plan makes this conflict easier for Israel because Gaza is like the IDF punching bag that it can use for training and muscle building because victory in Gaza would solve several problems in one move.
According to World Net Daily, Iran and Hezbollah are desperately trying to resupply Hamas militants operating within the Gaza Strip with long-range missiles to fire into Israel. The reports comes as Alaeddin Boroujerdi, the Iranian parliament’s national security and foreign policy committee leader, disagreed with Israeli claims about his nation supplying rockets to Gaza militant groups.
Analysis
Mideast analysts believe that Iran and Syria are behind the Hamas attack on Israeli citizens. Iran wants to begin the war to distract the IDF and prevent an attack on Iran’s nuclear enrichment facilities. This strategy could help unite the Arabs into attacking Israel and save Assad’s regime from collapse. This plan reveals that Iran is desperate and its leadership is feeling the pressure from Israel and the Western powers. This situation means a major Mideast war could erupt between Iran, Syria, and Israel.
If Hamas militants agree to a ceasefire, it will be due to the IDF inflicting tremendous damage on them to the point where they cannot continue the fight. The Hamas militants will only agree to a ceasefire when they are desperate and out of ammunition because their truce only means they will resupply themselves with more rockets and weaponry before they plan for their next attacks on Israel.

This opinion article was written by an independent writer. The opinions and views expressed herein are those of the author and are not necessarily intended to reflect those of DigitalJournal.com

Hamas Missiles Drown Out Talk of Ceasefire – Defense/Security – News – Israel National News.

Rocket Damage in Ashdod

Flash 90

Hamas unleashed new rounds of rocket missile bombardments on southern Israel Wednesday morning as United Nations and American officials try to reach a ceasefire.

The Iron Dome anti-missile system blew up at least a dozen missiles, including those aimed at Be’er Sheva and Ashkelon.

Most of the others landed in open areas, but one missile exploded at a house in Be’er Tuvia, a community next to Kiryat Malachi and located halfway between Be’er Sheva and Tel Aviv.

Rescue workers evacuated an elderly woman from the house, which was set on fire by the blast. She was not injured.

The rocket fire and continued IDF aerial strikes on terrorists in Gaza continued at the same time U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton is meeting with regional leaders to try to help hammer out a ceasefire.

A Hamas senior official announced late Wednesday morning that the last details of an Egyptian-brokered agreement are being worked out.

Israeli officials, speaking on condition of anonymity, have said that that there are significant gaps on the terms but that there probably will be an accord.

United Nations Secretary General Ban Ki-moon arrived in Israel on Tuesday after speaking with Egyptian Muslim Brotherhood President Mohammed Morsi, who has openly condemned Israel  for “aggression.”  His prime minister visited Gaza briefly earlier this week to show solidarity for Hamas.

Clinton and Ban presumably are tying to work out a way to meet Israel’s demand that there will not be a repeat of violations of previous ceasefires.

They also have to find a way to convince Hamas to accept a ceasefire without meeting its demand that Israel remove the maritime embargo, which helps prevent the smuggling of arms into Gaza. It is highly doubtful that Israel would agree to remove the embargo, a move that would enable Hamas to freely bring in long-range missiles and anti-aircraft missiles from Iran.

Naftali Bennett: Tear Gaza into two – Israel News, Ynetnews.

Habayit Hayehudi chairman harshly criticizes government, advocates ground invasion into Gaza

Ynet

Amid growing signs of a ceasefire, Habayit Hayehudi Chairman Naftali Bennett harshly criticized the government on Wednesday. “They’ve lost all common sense,” he said on Ynet’s TV studio.

The newly-elected chairman called on the government to expand Operation Pillar of Defense and “tear the Gaza Strip into two.”

“We can postpone the elections if that’s what it takes to protect the people of the south,” Bennett said. He added that a “country that cannot protect its residents is degrading itself in the eyes of the world. A country that protects its residents is respected.

“I think there is weakness of spirit a loss of fighting spirit, Jewish spirit, Zionist spirit on the part of the government.”

Asked what he would do in Benjamin Netanyahu‘s place he said, “I would seize an open strip of land, create a buffer zone between Egyptand Gaza and stay there to prevent launchers from entering. If we’re not going for a decisive blow, I’m against deploying even one soldier.”

The Habayit Hayehudi chairman stated that Israel faces an historic opportunity. “The people, the army, the reservists are all saying ‘Netanyahu, give us the order.’ We’re right behind you.'”

War of Words over Ceasefire as War Continues – Defense/Security – News – Israel National News.

Pillar Israeli artillery flares over Gaza

AFP photo

Egypt and Israel are engaged in a war of words over a possible ceasefire as Hamas continues to attack Israeli civilians and Israel retaliates.

Hamas also is reportedly divided over terms of a truce, which its officials have insisted include Israel’s removing the maritime embargo, which is designed to prevent or at least limit the smuggling of advanced weapons into Gaza.

Behind the scenes is Egypt, trying to play the role of honest broker while at the same the Muslim Brotherhood regime blames Israel for “aggression.”

Hamas terrorists, still called “militants” by mainstream media, said they are waiting for Israel to respond to the Egyptian-Hamas ceasefire proposal. Its terms have not been disclosed.

Optimistic negotiators had initially said that a deal could be announced in Cairo later Tuesday following days of negotiations brokered by an Egyptian government that is keen to make sure the unrest does not spill over to its volatile Sinai territory, AFP reported.

Islamic Jihad boasted Tuesday that there would be “a joint press conference between Hamas and Islamic Jihad and the Egyptian mediators tonight to announce the truce,” but Hamas later said in a statement that Israel had still not responded to the Palestinian proposal.

Israel has made it clear that it will not repeat previous mistakes of agreeing to a ceasefire that does not hold. Tzipi Livni, when she was Foreign Minister in the Olmert government, agreed to end Operation Cast Lead in 2009 based on guarantees of a halt to smuggling, which not only continued afterwards but also increased.

Medium-range Fajr missiles, smuggled from Iran and Hizbullah, have enabled Hamas to reach deeper into Israel, striking as far north as Tel Aviv and the Jerusalem area.

Israeli television also cited local diplomatic sources as saying that a truce announcement would probably have to wait at least until Wednesday.

Hamas continued attacking Israel Wednesday morning, launching rockets at the Ashdod and Sderot areas. None of the rockets hit their targets, and the Iron Dome system intercepted at least two of them.

Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu and his key ministers decided in a closed-door meeting late Monday to place “a temporary hold on a ground incursion to give diplomacy a chance to succeed,” a senior Israeli official told AFP.

Cast Lead Truce: Enter Gaza if Hamas Fires Rockets – Defense/Security – News – Israel National News.

(“Those who cannot learn from history are doomed to repeat it.” – George Santayana )

IDF soldiers enter Gaza in Cast Lead

Flash 90

Ceasefire negotiations are taking place under the shadow of  bitter experience of previous truces, most prominently Israel’s unilateral ceasefire ending the three-week Operation Cast Lead campaign in January 2009.

The government of former Prime Minister Ehud Olmert declared that as of January 18, 2009, “First a ceasefire is declared. If Hamas stops firing rockets, then Israel pulls its forces out of the Gaza Strip. If rocket fire resumes then the IDF goes back in, this time with the international backing gained by having tried a truce.”

Hamas spokesman Farzi Barhoum said at the time, “The occupier must halt his fire immediately and withdraw from our land and lift his blockade and open all crossings and we will not accept any one Zionist soldier on our land, regardless of the price that it costs.”

Islamic Jihad and Hamas then stated on January 18 they would halt missile and rocket attacks, and the IDF withdrew its troops three days later.

Two days after the ceasefire, residents of a kibbutz near Gaza ran for cover as a Code Red siren warned of a rocket attack. They heard an explosion, no one was injured, but the government denied there had been an attack.

The following week, IDF tanks briefly rolled back into Gaza along with foot soldiers following a roadside bomb explosion and a rocket-propelled grenade attack that killed one soldier and wounded three others.

On January 29, 2009, Hamas fired a rocket on the Sderot area,  following a similar attack the previous day.

Eshkol Regional Council head Chaim Lin told reporters following the attack, “This is the first rocket since the ceasefire [began]. We hope that the Israeli government will not be drawn into a policy of restraint, and that they will respond with force in order to preserve the security of the residents.

Two days later, Hamas fired a Grad rocket at the southern edge of Ashkelon in the morning, at least the third, not including mortar shells, that had hit southern Israel since Hamas announced its own ceasefire after the IDF ended Operation Cast Lead.

Unlike what occurred after previous ceasefire violations, Israel did not retaliate.

Since the ceasefire that marked the end of Operation Cast Lead, Hamas and other terrorists have attacked Israel with more than 1,000 missiles, rockets and mortar shells, not including the many hundreds that have been fired since the beginning of Operation Pillar of Defense last week.

The Strange Obsession With Proportional Body Counts – Jeffrey Goldberg – The Atlantic.

The New York Times has a very good editorial on Hamas that is flawed by an illogical assertion. About that assertion in a minute, but here’s some of what the Times says:

Hamas, which took control of Gaza in 2007 and is backed by Iran, is so consumed with hatred for Israel that it has repeatedly resorted to violence, no matter the cost to its own people. Gaza militants have fired between 750 to 800 rockets into Israel this year before Israel assassinated one of its senior leaders last week and began its artillery and air campaigns. That approach will never get Palestinians the independent state most yearn for, but it is all Hamas has to offer.

Israel also has a responsibility for the current crisis, which threatens to complicate and divert attention from international attempts to deal with the threat of Iran’s nuclear program and the Syrian civil war. Israel has a right to defend itself, although it is doing so at the cost of further marginalizing the moderate Palestinian Authority that helps administer the West Bank and it risks further isolating Israel diplomatically.

Okay, fine. But then the editorial states the following, in an effort to suggest that the Hamas threat is not quite existential:

Israel has a vastly more capable military than Hamas, and its air campaign has resulted in a lopsided casualty count: three Israelis have been killed.

Whenever I read a statement like this, I wonder if the person writing it believes that there is a large moral difference between attempted murder and successfully completed murder. The casualty count is lopsided, but why? A couple of reasons: Hamas rockets are inaccurate; Israel’s Iron Dome anti-missile system is working well. But the Israeli body count isn’t low because Hamas is trying to minimize Israeli casualties. Quite the opposite: Hamas’s intention is to kill as many Israelis as possible. Without vigilance, and luck, and without active attempts by the Israeli Air Force to destroy rocket launchers before they can be used, the Israeli body count would be much higher. The U.S. judges the threat from al Qaeda based on the group’s intentions and plans, not merely on the number of Americans it has killed over the past 10 years. This is the correct approach to dealing with such a threat.

Lasting truce – JPost – Opinion – Editorials.

Analysis: Abbas, as irrelevant as ever – JPost – Defense.