The Region: Notes on the new Mide… JPost – Opinion – Columnists.

Photo: REUTERS/Ali Hashisho The most interesting developments in the Middle East aren’t in the news, but can be discovered by analyzing what is.

Here are a few developing right now:

• Fifty percent of the Muslim Brotherhood-dominated Syrian National Council budget came from the government of Libya.

Since Libya is very much a US client, it’s reasonable to conclude that the Obama administration encouraged this generosity. Yet this money was financing a Muslim Brotherhood front.

A lot of arms have been flowing from Libya to Hamas and other terrorist groups in the Gaza Strip and to radical forces in Syria. Some claim that the US government was coordinating that traffic, though this has not yet been proven. The SNC has now been replaced by a new umbrella group whose role and even survival is still uncertain.

This means the Obama administration was using a barely disguised channel to pay for a revolutionary Islamist movement seeking to take over Syria. The fact that this group was also anti-American, anti-Semitic and genocidal toward Jews seems significant.

The rest of the SNC budget came from Qatar (38%) and Saudi Arabia (12%). Now the SNC has fallen apart, and US efforts to broker a new Syrian opposition leadership have failed completely.

• Not only is al-Qaida not dead, its sympathizers and those influenced by it have planned a remarkable number of terrorist attacks on American soil – 95 in the past three years, according to the Senate Intelligence Committee. It’s interesting to note that the committee lists the Fort Hood attack among them, despite executive branch denials that it was terrorism.

• As if to ensure strong opposition to making Palestine a nonmember state in the UN – the only diplomatic initiative the Palestinian Authority has come up with in the past four years, and which in no way advances peace with Israel – Abbas Zaki says once this happens the Oslo accords will be void.

One implication of this stance is that a state of Palestine will exist which has denounced any recognition of Israel’s existence. Granted, he is a traditional PLO hardliner crony of Arafat, but this really underlines the point that such a step would destroy any basis for a peace process and potentially reopen the conflict fully.

• An attack from Lebanon on Israel is increasingly unlikely because that country is moving toward a civil war of its own. Currently, Lebanon is dominated by Syrian and Iranian client Hezbollah, a Shia Islamist group, and pro- Syrian Sunni politicians. In contrast, the opposition has been led by Sunni moderates.

But Syria’s civil war is shaking this situation up. Hezbollah and its patron Iran have been supporting its other patron, the Syrian dictatorship.

The opposition, which includes the Muslim Brotherhood and Salafist Sunnis, is outraged. If the current Syrian government is overthrown, and this is already visible, the opposition is going to go after the Lebanese regime.

Not only will it support the Sunnis there against the Shia but it is likely to sponsor a transformation of the Sunni side with radical Islamists replacing moderates. A sign of that coming civil war has been several days of fighting in the Lebanese city of Sidon.

The Sunni Salafist leader demanded that Hezbollah banners be taken down, then tore down a poster of Hezbollah’s leaders. Gunfire followed and people were killed. With the home front so insecure – and likely to become more so – Hezbollah isn’t going to have the forces to spare to go after Israel.

• The New York Times continues its bizarre coverage of an Egypt in which the Muslim Brotherhood can do no wrong. There is a rather humorous aspect to the newspaper’s reasoning. The issue in question is the new Egyptian constitution, about whose text rumors are leaking, though only the full draft text will be authoritative.

According to the Times, “the principles of Islamic law” would be the main source for Egypt’s legislation but the precise definition of what is or isn’t properly Islamic would be left to the parliament and courts. David Kirkpatrick says: “Little is expected to change under the current courts and parliament – dominated by Islamists who mostly favor a relatively flexible or gradual approach to adopting Islamic law….” But “…if literal-minded ultraconservatives – known as Salafis and who currently hold about a quarter of the seats in parliament – gain more influence in the legislature and eventually the courts, they could someday use the provisions to try to impose a strict interpretation of Islamic law.”

In other words, as long as the Muslim Brotherhood holds most of the power there’s nothing to worry about – as if that movement doesn’t have the imposition of Sharia law as its main principle.

How can having a parliament in which 75% of the seats are held by radical Islamists suggest that they aren’t going to impose Islamic law? And who’s going to be appointing the judges who make such determinations in courts? Yes, the wording might be similar to that of the old, pre-revolution constitution. But a Muslim Brotherhood regime is going to interpret things differently from a Western-oriented, anti-Islamist government.

The article goes on to say that “liberal delegates who signed onto the deal noted that the guidelines were broad enough to leave substantial room for debate over just what Islamic law should require in the context of modern Egypt.”

That’s true, but many liberals boycotted the constitution-writing process precisely because they believed no such thing. And, again, who cares if there’s a debate when the debate will be settled by a Muslim Brotherhood president, an Islamist-dominated parliament, and increasingly an Islamist-dominated court system? At any rate, I’ll wait until the full text is available for analyzing what the new Egyptian system will look like.

Only disproportionate deterrence … JPost – Opinion – Columnists.

Photo: Suhaib Salem / Reuters The Jewish state was created to overcome powerlessness and provide a haven for Jews – not to have them cringing in shelters.

There had previously been considerable criticism of the government for its failure to adequately respond to the ongoing toll inflicted on over a million Israeli citizens obliged to endure thousands of missiles launched against them at the whim of a loathsome neighboring terrorist state. We had tired of hearing successive Israeli leaders repeatedly expressing empty threats and chanting the mantra: “this is intolerable and unacceptable and must stop.”

Hamas is no longer a terrorist faction.

It is in every respect an independent state the majority of whose citizens enthusiastically support the terrorist initiatives and missile launches initiated by its evil leaders, who are committed to our annihilation.

The situation deteriorated with the rise to power in Egypt of the Muslim Brotherhood, the creators of Hamas.

Since then, the Egyptian authorities stood by as Hamas accumulated vast quantities of sophisticated missiles and other lethal weapons including guided anti-tank missiles and shoulder- mounted anti-aircraft weapons from Iran, Libya Sudan and other states.

That explains why, despite awareness that Operation Pillar of Defense may escalate into full-scale war, all sections of Israeli society fervently support the IDF operation. It is also gratifying that Jews throughout the world are actively demonstrating solidarity with Israel.

Hamas was emboldened to test our resolve, believing that Israel would be fearful of confronting the new Egyptian regime and also encouraged by the active support from the Turkish government and the recent visit to Gaza of the emir of Qatar, who contributed $400 million to their coffers.

Israel was indeed sensitive to these issues, as well as the effect of a military conflict diverting attention from Iran – especially now as it proceeds with its uranium enrichment. There was also concern at the civil war in Syria and the dramatic rise of Islamic extremism throughout the region. To top it off there were inhibitions because of the US presidential elections.

Nevertheless, Hamas miscalculated.

By intensifying the bombardment of the South, it obliged the State of Israel to respond harshly or forfeit any modicum of deterrence.

The initial outcome was good. The IDF had clearly learned from the lessons of previous wars: intelligence was impeccable; action was systematic and rational with, to date, minimal civilian casualties.

It must be stressed that the targeted killings of terrorist leaders are not acts of revenge or showmanship. They are logical military actions which can be rationally justified in moral terms.

The killing of Ahmad Jabari, regarded as the Palestinian counterpart of Osama bin Laden, is a prime example.

Unlike US drone attacks on al-Qaida and the Taliban, the IDF succeeded in avoiding collateral casualties.

The global response from most Western countries, which followed President Obama’s lead condemning the rocket attacks and endorsing Israel’s right to self-defense, has until now been satisfactory, despite the usual calls for restraint and for Israel to act in a “proportionate” manner.

But these are early days. Initially, we are unlikely to face problems at the UN Security Council. However, the General Assembly and UN Human Rights Council, controlled by Islamic and other anti-Israeli coalitions, have consistently viewed Israel as the aggressor and never the victim. Neither of these bodies has even once condemned the Hamas missile attacks and there is little doubt that they and NGO bodies such as Amnesty International will blame Israel exclusively for reigniting the armed conflict.

In addition, while the IDF is taking extraordinary precautions to minimize civilian casualties, there will invariably, as in any military conflict, be mishaps – especially in Gaza where Hamas ruthlessly employ human shields by locating armaments and launching missiles in civilian residential areas. In addition, our enemies have already circulated bogus images of Palestinian civilian casualties, highlighting infants allegedly killed by Israel. As in the past, these gruesome images will be exploited to pressure Israel to back down.

And while the Iron Dome anti-rocket shield has been highly successful in largely protecting the major Israeli cities, there have already been tragic casualties and regrettably more are likely if hostilities continue to escalate and impact on the home front.

Clearly, the IDF would prefer to limit the conflict to pinpointed aerial strikes. However, if Hamas continue raining rockets against Israeli civilians, Israel will be forced into a ground offensive in which greater casualties are inevitable.

The main challenge for the government is to devise an end strategy to achieve long-term deterrence as well as a strategy to be implemented instantly should Hamas become sufficiently re-emboldened to recommence missile launches.

Israel has no desire to return to the era of the tit-for-tat war of attrition whereby we respond to missile launches by bombing rocket launching sites and empty buildings.

Although some of our allies are already urging us not to respond “disproportionately,” such a concept has absolutely no relevance to the threat facing Israel. While still seeking to minimize civilian casualties, we must create genuine deterrence in order to avoid future full-scale conflicts of ever increasing magnitude. In fact, a disproportionate response to aggression is fully consistent with international law in which the prime obligation of the state is to protect its civilians.

Those seeking to deny us this basic right are maliciously hypocritical.

The issue of Israel continuing to provide Hamas-controlled Gaza with services is another bizarre anomaly. It is one thing to be sensitive to the humanitarian needs of civilian noncombatants, but to continue providing electricity and other utilities to a neighboring state raining missiles on us is utterly perverse. If the lights went out automatically every time a rocket was dispatched, the inconvenienced Gaza residents might even influence their leaders to hesitate before launching missiles.

An intensive government campaign must be implemented to counter the impact of successive years of the world having become conditioned to regarding Israel under missile attacks as normative. We must highlight the fact that such attacks against civilians are unequivocally war crimes.

Would the US respond “proportionately” if 50 million Americans were under missile attack from Mexico or Canada for a decade? Or if France faced such bombardment from Belgium or Luxemburg? No other state in the world would tolerate this and we must demonstrate that a policy of “restraint,” far from reflecting strength, displays weakness and emboldens our evil neighbors to intensify their attacks.

We must recognize that in future conflicts, the terrorists will continue accumulating more effective and lethal weapons to employ against us.

We must therefore endeavor to resist calls for a cease-fire until such time as Hamas, in conjunction with the Egyptians, undertake to cease their aggression.

There must be a clear understanding that any breach would result in harsh “disproportionate” Israeli responses including the targeted killings of those responsible for initiating attacks. In the absence of such an agreement an enforced cease-fire will be perceived as a major victory for Hamas and our citizens will simply return to the life of terror they endured since the first Kassams were launched a decade ago.

Ground invasion? – JPost – Opinion – Editorials.

Gazan rockets hit Ashkelon, Ashdod; Iron Dome … JPost – Defense.

Anti-Tank Rocket Fire on Eilat – Defense/Security – News – Israel National News.

Katyusha rocket and Eilat hotel

Israel news photo montage

Terrorists in the Sinai, controlled by Egypt, attacked the Eilat area with an anti-tank rocket around 8 a.m. Monday. No physical injuries were reported, and at least person was treated for shock.

Police are investigating to determine if there was any damage. The rocket explosion followed two other blasts that were heard Sunday night, apparently from rocket attacks.

The mountainous area has made it difficult for security personnel to locate the sites of the explosions.

Attacks from the Sinai often are carried out by Hamas terrorists who have crossed into Egypt from Gaza or Bedouin and Al Qaeda terrorists, often allied with Hamas.

In the north, the IDF is on high alert for attacks from Syrian forces, across from the Golan Heights border, and Hizbullah in Lebanon.

In the Second Lebanon War in 2006, Hamas took the opportunity of the battle to engage the IDF in a two-front war, escalating rocket tracks on the south. So far, Hizbullah has not carried out any attacks since the beginning of Operation Pillar of Defense.

Let’s blame the Jews – YouTube.

( An amazing exposition eviscerating 21st century antisemitism by Pat Condell. – JW )

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Blast sounds in Eilat mountains – Israel News, Ynetnews.

( This is the 2nd volley of missiles we’ve received in 24 hours – JW )

Eilat residents reported hearing a blast in a mountainous area in the southern city. The authorities are looking into the possibility that a rocket was fired towards the area. (Meir Ohayon)

Eleven reasons why this is not Cast Lead – Israel News | Haaretz Daily Newspaper.

Though the pictures from Gaza and southern Israel look eerily similar, this round of violence between Israel and Hamas differs greatly from that of 2009.

So far, it seems, Israel has learnt the lessons of the previous operation in Gaza

It all looks so depressingly similar – a devastating Israeli attack on Hamas in the Gaza Strip while hundreds of Palestinian missiles are fired at Israeli towns. Massive ground forces on the border with Gaza prepare to embark on a house-to-house battle. How very 2008. You could almost call it Operation Cast Lead II.

Each side has a long list of bloody grievances, and any attempt to answer the question “who started?” is destined to fail. Every episode, though, is a result of the previous one and while the Israel Defense Forces still sees Cast Lead as a well-executed military exercise, the death toll and scenes of devastation in Gaza, as well as the diplomatic fallout, are what remained in the international public’s mind, along with the deterrence of Hamas, which lasted less than four years. The apparent erosion of this deterrence is the official reason for the operation’s timing.

This isn’t a second Operation Cast Lead, though. There are a number of significant differences in the circumstances and execution of the latest offensive which are affecting the way events are unfolding and will influence the eventual outcome. Here are the reasons:

1. Cohesion at the top – The last two major military offensives saw deep discord within Israel’s highest echelons. During the Second Lebanon War, IDF Chief of Staff Dan Halutz didn’t get on with his generals, and the inexperienced Defense Minister Amir Peretz failed to restore order. During Cast Lead, the political triumvirate – Prime Minister Ehud Olmert, Defense Minister Ehud Barak and Foreign Minister Tzipi Livni – were political rivals who distrusted each other. Trouble at the top means lengthy decision-making processes.

This show is run by Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and Barak. The two men have worked together well for nearly four years, Barak remains a closer ally to Netanyahu than any of his Likud ministers. Unlike a possible strike on Iran, in this case they have their way in cabinet and no significant opposition from the security establishment.

Despite his belligerent image, Netanyahu is obsessively cautious. Barak is a fan of quick and sophisticated maneuvers. They are not disposed to a protracted, large-scale campaign and beneath the talk of “broadening the operation” is an eagerness to find a way of ending it this week still.

2. The ace has already been played – During Cast Lead, Hamas’ leadership barricaded themselves under Gaza’s Shifa Hospital. The IDF was therefore denied a high-profile assassinationand the Israeli public the satisfaction these actions usually invoke. Opening this operation with the targeted assassination of Hamas Chief of Staff Ahmad Jabari means that Israel’s leaders will have an easier time facing their public when they decide to end it. On the other hand, it gives Hamas a burning need for an achievement of its own.

3. Hamas missiles back to square one – The military build-up in Gaza over the last four years was unprecedented. Dozens of Fajr and M75 medium-range missiles were installed in concrete underground silos, ready to be used at a moment such as this. Nearly all of them went up in smoke during the first few hours of the operation.

It won’t be easy for them to rebuild the capability once calm is restored. Hamas is no longer on friendly terms with Iran, its main supplier, after they fell out over the Syrian civil war. Israel, for its part, has gotten a lot better at interdicting the smuggling routes. There is a limited number of hiding places in the crowded Gaza Strip and Israeli intelligence has exposed most of them. Hamas will try to reequip but will also be looking for other options to hurt Israel: Launching from bases in Sinai, a return to suicide attacks or, rather, diplomacy? Hamas is back to the drawing board.

4. Iron dome has proven itself – The first missile defense system shielding civilians anywhere in the world is still in advanced development stages but as of Saturday, five urban areas are covered by one battery each. Those who said it is a game changer probably spoke too soon. It has saved lives (three civilians were killed from a rocket in Kiryat Malakhi, which is not covered by Iron Dome) and given the government a breathing space. But the system, far from perfect, is still limited by the number of operational batteries. Missiles still get through and one of them could yet cause major civilian casualties. The billions invested in the system have not yet caused Hamas and the other Palestinian organizations to change tactic. They are still firing whatever they have towards Israel. But the success of the system is another boost to Israeli public morale and may help the government to decide on a ceasefire.

5. Civilian casualties in Gaza still relatively low – As of midday Sunday, 45 Palestinians have been killed from Israeli strikes, less than twenty of them civilians. While the images of dead babies in Gaza are shocking, this is nothing like the much greater numbers of the Cast Lead death toll. While this is largely due to the changes in Israeli tactics, while hundreds of bombs are fired into Gaza, any one of them falling on a house or a mosque full of people can still change the entire picture, despite the pinpoint accuracy and intelligence gathering.

For now though there is no diplomatic outcry or images of carnage on the international networks. That makes a huge difference.

6. Ground offensive an option, not a necessity – The cabinet’s authorization to call up 75,000 reservists does not mean that all of them, or anything near that number, have actually been called up. Many of those who have been drafted are not yet in battle stations. This is probably not a bluff to force Hamas to agree to a ceasefire; the IDF is still traumatized by its ill-preparedness in the Second Lebanon War and the government is giving it all the tools it may need, should the decision to go in on the ground be taken.

But the lack of appetite for a ground offensive is clear both within the cabinet and the IDF’s high command. The infantry brigades and armored battalions are poised around Gaza as a clear signal to what could happen if Hamas continues to fire on Israel. They may well be stood down.

7. A clear message from Washington – Cast Lead was launched in the twilight between administrations: George W. Bush was packing his bags while Barack Obama had yet to move into the White House. This time, despite the proximity to the American elections, it is clear who is boss and so far, there is a clear American green light for Israel’s operation. Most of the western governments have fallen in line. This is also the first clear message coming from the administration in Obama’s second term, after fears that he would “get back” at Netanyahu for his perceived support of Mitt Romney.

Netanyahu and Barak are aware that international support can be very temporary. They have a clear incentive to hold on to that.

8. A much quicker “hasbara” – The speed with which footage of Israeli strikes in Gaza reaches the television screens and social networks is a result of a concerted effort by the various press operations of the IDF and government departments to collate the surveillance images constantly streaming in to the command posts and clear them for publication. The immediate purpose of this is to swamp the airwaves with Israel’s narrative and chosen pictures. The PR operation was given advance warning of the impending operation and so far as can be judged, seems to be working to a large degree.

The second objective is to ready for the moment when a tragedy occurs and a bomb falls on a school in Gaza. Then there will be a mad rush to broadcast proof that the strike was on a legitimate target. For now, though, Israel is not losing the media war.

9. No media blackout or blockade on Gaza – Foreign reporters are being allowed into Gaza, as opposed to Cast Lead when the Erez crossing was closed to the international media. Food supplies are also going through the crossings from Israel and Egypt and so far there are no reports of acute shortages in the Strip. The presence of journalists, reporting freely from Gaza, serves both sides. Picture of civilian casualties and the destruction of buildings promote sympathy for the Palestinians; but this time around, it is not being described as a humanitarian crisis and there is less pressure on Israel to end the operation.

10. Hamas can also point to achievements – The handful of launches towards Tel-Aviv and Jerusalem resulted in one destroyed car and has negligible military value, if any. Israel knew they had missiles that can reach its main urban centers and only a few of those survived the initial strikes. Tel-Aviv is holding up well and the new Iron Dome battery has already intercepted two rockets. But Hamas can say (and is already saying) to its people that they hit the Zionists most valuable targets which should also make a ceasefire more palatable to them.

11. Egypt is Hamas’ patron and that could be a good thing – Four years ago, Israel and Mubarak’s Egypt were cooperating very closely behind the scenes, pressuring Hamas, which had the backing of Iran and Syria. Israel still has diplomatic relations with Egypt but this time the Muslim Brotherhood administration is clearly in Hamas’ corner. Egyptian support may have emboldened Hamas in recent weeks, leading to the current operation, but it also creates pressure on President Mohammed Morsi. Everyone is expecting him to utilize his rapport with Hamas and deliver a ceasefire soon. If the talks with Palestinian leaders currently underway in Cairo succeed, backed by Turkish and Qatari endorsement, it will prove that there are advantages to the new Egyptian regime.

Palestinians: Israel demands 15-year lull, Morsi guarantee – Israel News, Ynetnews.

According to reports in Cairo, Israel put forward six key demands for ceasefire, threatened ground offensive in Gaza if no response within 48 to 72 hours

Elior Levy

Some Hamas figures have declared that the ceasefire negotiations have failed, while Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said the cessation of rocket fire on Israel is a prerequisite for starting talks, but Palestinian sources who are familiar with Cairo’s efforts to broker a truce said it was too soon to announce that the talks have collapsed.

On Sunday senior Fatah official Nabil Sha’ath arrived in the Egyptian capital and met with Hamas politburo chief Khaled Mashaal. Sha’ath said Mashaal informed him that the negotiations have entered a serious stage but expressed doubt that an agreement would be reached anytime soon due to Israel’s demands and its refusal to accept demands put forward by Hamas and the other Palestinian terror organizations.

Mashaal (L) with Morsi in Cairo (Photo: AP)

According to reports in Cairo, these are the conditions for a ceasefire set forth by Israel:

• 1. A lull for a period of more than 15 years.

• 2. An immediate cessation of arms smuggling and the transfer of weapons to Gaza.

• 3. Cessation of rocket fire on the part of all armed Palestinian factions and an end to attacks on soldiers near the Gaza border.

• 4. Israel has the right to hunt down terrorists in the event of an attack or if it obtains information on an imminent attack.

• 5. The Rafah border crossing between Gaza and Egypt will remain open, but the crossings on the Gaza-Israel border will remain closed.

• 6. Egypt’s politicians, headed by President Mohammed Morsi, will be the guarantors of any ceasefire agreement. Meaning, the agreement will be backed by Egypt’s political echelon rather than by its security establishment.

This list of demands has not been confirmed by any other source.

Hamas’ demands for a ceasefire include the lifting of the naval blockade of Gaza, international community guarantees for the cessation of targeted killings, an end to IDF cross-border raids and the cessation of attacks on fishermen off the coast.

According to Sha’ath, Israel has withdrawn a key demand that Hamas lay down its arms and make certain that the rocket fire on Israel is stopped entirely. The Palestinian official said the negotiations have entered a “very important” phase.

The Palestinian sources said Israel has threatened that if there is no response to its demands within the next 48 to 72 hours, it will launch a ground offensive accompanied by continued attacks on Gaza from the air and sea until the Hamas regime is overthrown.

The IDF has completed its preparations for a possible invasion of Gaza.

Israeli leaders re-examine Gaza ground operation under strong Obama pressure.

DEBKAfile Exclusive Report November 18, 2012, 11:36 PM (GMT+02:00)

Barack Obama in Bangkok

Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu, Defense Minister Ehud Barak and Foreign Minister Avigdor Lieberman conferred urgently Sunday night, Nov. 18 – Day 5 of the Gaza offensive – on how to respond to US President Barack Obama’s insistent demand that they delay a major IDF ground operation in the Gaza Strip.
debkafile’s sources disclose that when Obama spoke to Egyptian President Mohamed Morsi Friday, Nov. 16 – after receiving an update from Netanyahu – he gave him a 48-hour window for talking Hamas around to a ceasefire.

Not only has the Egyptian president failed in this task, his bid made matters worse: Hamas understood the US president was leaning hard on Israel to refrain from sending troops into the Gaza Strip and took advantage of the respite to redouble its missile barrage on a dozen Israeli locations in the last three days, including Tel Aviv and Jerusalem.
Following his talks with Morsi and Netanyahu, Obama referred in Bangkok Sunday to “the next 24, 36, 48 hours as crucial; Israel responded to his request to send two senior envoys to Cairo – a high-ranking military officer and an intelligence official – take part in the ceasefire negotiations.
However,  Hamas turned down all the truce proposals on the table, leaving Israel with three options:
1.  To delay the ground action until Wednesday although it was poised to go forward Sunday night – even though the US president may be expected to stand by his objections then too;
2.  To go ahead and launch the ground stage of the military offensive over those objections; or
3.  To conduct a series of ground sorties inside the Gaza Strip to test the ground there without delay.

debkafile reported earlier Sunday:
“We are fully supportive of Israel’s right to defend itself from missiles landing on people’s homes and workplaces and potentially killing civilians,” said President Barack Obama Sunday, Nov. 18 in Bangkok.  “And we will continue to support Israel’s right to defend itself.”
Speaking at a joint conference with Thai Minister Yingluck Shinawatra, the US president said, “there is no country on earth that would tolerate missiles raining down on its citizens from outside its borders.” If that can be stopped “without a ramping up of military activity in Gaza, that’s preferable, not just for the people of Gaza. It’s preferable for the Israelis because if Israeli troops are in Gaza they are much more at risk of incurring fatalities or being wounded.”
He went on to say after talking to would-mediators in Cairo, “if we’re serious about wanting to resolve this situation and create a genuine peace process, it starts with no more missiles being fired into Israel’s territory and that then gives us the space to try and deal with these long-standing conflicts that exist.”
“We’re going to have to see what kind of progress we can make in the next 24, 36, 48 hours, but what I’ve said to [Egyptian] President Morsi and [Turkish] Prime Minister Erdogan is that those who champion the cause of the Palestinians should recognize that if we see a further escalation of the situation in Gaza than the likelihood of us getting back on any kind of peace track that leads to a two state solution is going to be pushed off way into the future.”
The US Ambassador to Israel Dan Shapiro joined Defense Minister Ehud Barak on a visit to an Iron Dome battery Sunday shortly before he flies out to brief the White House on the Gaza crisis.

Barak thanked President Obama and all those Americans who past and present contributed to the financing and development of the Iron Dome missile interception system. This defensive weapon has intercepted a total of 300 incoming Palestinian missiles, nearly 90 percent of the rockets threatening Israeli towns, he said. Its performance “made it possible for us to prepare the next stages of Operation Pillar of Cloud which may be even tougher. There is no better symbol of the close US-Israeli military cooperation.

debkafile reported earlier Sunday:   Israeli air and naval forces launched heavy assaults in Gaza before dawn Sunday, Nov. 18 – Day 5 of the IDF’s Gaza operation – after daylong bargaining Saturday among Washington, Jerusalem, Cairo and Gaza, failed to produce an Israel-Hamas truce accord.  When Egyptian and Turkish middlemen suggested a ceasefire was close, Israel accused them of pushing Hamas’s terms which were fashioned to present the Palestinian radicals as the victor in the contest. The trio leading the Israeli war, Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu, Defense Minister Ehud Barak and Foreign Minister Avigdor Lieberman, countered by intensifying the IDF’s Gaza offensive – though not as yet sending ground troops in.

A Western source said it would take some days to determine if a ceasefire was feasible.
Egyptian intelligence meanwhile smuggled Hamas Prime Minister Islmail Haniyeh out of Gaza and over to El Arish in northern Sinai in the convoy of visiting Tunisian Foreign Minister Rafiq Abdessalem when he departed Gaza Saturday, debkafile reports.

Friday night, Israel bombers struck government headquarters in Gaza City.

Egyptian President Mohamed Morsi decided that Haniyeh must be continuously available at the end of a phone to lead the Hamas side in the ceasefire negotiations. This was not possible so long as the Hamas prime minister remained in Gaza. All of Hamas leaders have gone to ground for fear of targeted assassination by Israel. They have switched off their phones and electronic communications to avoid giving away their locations to Israeli surveillance. Haniyeh was even afraid to communicate with Cairo through the Egyptian military mission in Gaza.

In these circumstances, Morsi and Erdogan’s were prevented from get their ceasefire mediation bid off the ground. Moving Haniyeh to El Arish put a Hamas negotiator in place to lead the give-and-take for a truce. Our sources have not discovered if he is still there or has moved back to Gaza.
The Turkish prime minister brought a secret passenger in the plane bringing him to Cairo Saturday. He is Saleh Aruri, formerly of the Hamas military wing.  Aruri had spent 15 years in an Israeli prison for terrorism and murder until he was released on Oct. 18, 2011 in the prisoner exchange for the Israeli soldier Gilead Shalit on condition he went into exile.

Turkey granted him asylum and its intelligence agency MIT gave him free rein to set up an operational command in Istanbul for Hamas terrorist networks on the West Bank.

On arrival in Cairo, the Turkish prime minister put Aruri in charge of the contacts with Haniyeh.

At a news conference in Cairo Saturday night, the Egyptian president and Turkish prime minister reported “some indications that there could be a ceasefire soon” although “there were still no guarantees.”
The guarantees issue has become a pivotal bargaining point.

Israel, backed by the United States, insists that a ceasefire be signed between the US, Egypt, Turkey and Israel, and exclude Hamas, which would be bound by a separate agreement with Cairo.
Netanyahu, Barak and Lieberman are asking the United States to act as guarantor for a ceasefire. Erdogan has countered by inviting Russian President Vladimir Putin to join US President Barack Obama as victor.
Hamas has rejected all of Israel’s terms.

During the night, Israel denied reports circulating in Cairo that an Israeli negotiator was heading for the Egyptian capital to get down to the specifics of an emerging truce deal. The three Israeli war leaders decided not to fall into the trap laid by Morsi and Erdogan. Instead, they told the IDF to press ahead with the operation until its objectives were attained – hence the launching of a fresh air and sea assault before daybreak Sunday.

OC Southern Command, Maj. Gen. Tal Rousso defined those objectives to reporters Saturday night as “eliminating the war arsenals of Hamas and terrorist organizations and restoring peace and normality to the population of southern Israel.”

The ground operation is meanwhile delayed, in accordance with Netanyahu’s promise to President Obama in their conversation early Saturday, that a full-scale ground invasion would not go forward so long as there was a chance of a ceasefire – unless there was escalation from Hamas or a strike that caused significant casualties.

A western source in Cairo familiar with the truce negotiations reported that Obama has not yet decided whether he wants to be directly involved in any ceasefire deal, which in any case has not reached the concluding stage. “The cake dough is still being kneaded and not yet ready to for the oven,” he said.