WarSclerotic

Israel’s actions on Wednesday went a long way toward restoring the deterrence lost during the most recent escalation. The assassination of Ahmed Jabari, the head of Hamas’ military wing, and the equally important targeting of Hamas’ long-range rocket caches, stunned the Islamic organization. It was reminded once again of the adversary it is up against and what the real balance of power is.

But whether Operation Pillar of Defense turns out to be a success ultimately depends on how the next few days unfold. Will Israel be able to hold onto its early gains? Will it avoid a military and diplomatic entanglement in the Gaza Strip? Will the operation help usher in a new modus vivendi that allows the residents of the south to lead their lives peacefully?

Israel’s decision to carry out the assassination underscores a realization that Hamas, under Jabari’s leadership, changed its modus operandi by taking an active role in terrorist attacks, effectively abandoning its long-held policy of restraint. This was evident is the repeated rocket launches against the communities near the Gaza Strip and its stepped-up attacks against IDF troops patrolling the border fence and combating its tunneling activity.

Hamas’ audacity reached a new high on Saturday, when it fired an antitank missile on Givati troops near the Gaza security fence, wounding four. This proved Hamas was no longer going to shy away from an escalation.

The massive salvos on Sderot and Hamas’ half-hearted efforts to ensure other terrorist groups abide by the cease-fire that has been in place since Operation Cast Lead in 2008-2009 were an indication that the ruler of the Gaza Strip was now running the show and was leading the terrorist campaign against Israel. Israel knew full well that if it let the recent violations slide it would invite a new, more painful round of hostilities in the near future.

The response came on Wednesday, after a few days of stormy weather that prevented action. In hindsight, the unfavorable weather conditions played into Israel’s hands. On the one hand, the government’s inaction elicited scathing criticism for forsaking the residents of the south, but it bought Israeli leaders some time to put on a show that convinced Hamas that the latest round was drawing to a close. Hamas let its guard down, expecting calm, and allowed its leaders to come out of hiding. This provided an opening to Israel to make its move and embark on its campaign.

The decision to allow trucks to flow into the Gaza Strip with goods on Wednesday was also designed to create a false impression of calm. Another layer of deception was added when the Israeli media showed the prime minister and defense minister touring the north. Other politicians also played along, stating that a military operation was unlikely. This added to Hamas’ sense of complacency.

A top-down attack

The Jabari assassination was greenlighted by the Forum of Nine (comprising the prime minister and other top ministers) on Wednesday. Israel opted to begin the campaign with a top-down attack focusing on Hamas’ higher-ups, knowing that an incremental campaign would allow Jabari and the other leaders to lie low (as was the case in Operation Cast Lead), which would make their assassination unfeasible.

In Wednesday’s Forum of Nine meeting, the Israel Security Agency (Shin Bet) and the IDF predicted that Hamas would try to retaliate by firing rockets on Tel Aviv, a strategic tit-for-tat that would change the rules of the game. The IDF was thus given the go-ahead to take out all the long-range rockets and rocket launchers in the Gaza Strip.

The two-pronged campaign was run simultaneously from the IDF and Shin Bet headquarters. The IDF, from its underground bunker at the General Staff Headquarters (the Kirya), was tasked with targeting the rocket disposition; the Shin Bet’s operations center was in charge of the assassination.

The IDF had in its target repository an elaborate file on the Fajr-3 and Fajr-5 rockets, which have ranges of up to 75 kilometers (46 miles). The Israel Air Force used the coordinates in these files to carry out precision strikes on the bunkers where they had been stored as well as on other caches and launching sites. As in the 2006 Second Lebanon War, which began with Israel destroying Hezbollah’s long-range rockets, the most pressing objective was to deny Hamas (and the Palestinian Islamic Jihad) the ability to disrupt the lives of those in the greater Tel Aviv area and central Israel by means of long-range rockets.

IDF officials were careful on Wednesday not to declare Hamas’ long-range rocket apparatus as having been destroyed, lest they be embarrassed by a successful launch. The Israel Navy and Israel Air Force, having learned the lessons of Hezbollah’s surprise attack on the INS Hanit in 2006 by means of a coastal missile, stepped up security to prepare for Hamas surprises down the road.

Jabari’s death stunned Hamas and put it on the defensive. Over the past several years, Jabari had become the dominant figure in the organization, the Gaza Strip’s all-powerful wheeler and dealer. He was seared into the collective minds of Israelis as the one who masterminded the abduction of Gilad Schalit in the 2006 cross-border raid (and who later handled his release in the prisoner exchange). Israel’s security officials considered him a sophisticated and bitter enemy.

Under his leadership, Hamas assembled a military force that was organized, trained and equipped. This has increasingly become a challenge for the IDF. Jabari was to Hamas what Imad Mughniyeh was to Hezbollah — the linchpin that holds together all the organization’s military infrastructure. No one in the Israeli decision-making apparatus was under any illusion that Hamas would let this assassination slide. They nevertheless gave it the go-ahead, knowing full well that after the initial shock subsided, Hamas would retaliate forcefully.

The fact that Hamas did not pursue a large-scale retaliation in the immediate aftermath of the assassination is a result of the state of confusion in the Gaza Strip in the first few hours. The Israel Air Force’s highly effective shield over the Gaza Strip also effectively nipped much of the rocket-launching activity in its bud. That said, the discussions concluded on Wednesday with policymakers bracing for a “tough battle” on Thursday.

That is why Israel’s southern communities were instructed to prepare for many hits. Schools were closed; the first-responder apparatus and the IDF Homefront Command were sent reinforcements; anti-rocket Iron Dome batteries were deployed in a way that could provide maximum protection for residents and strategic sites.

The IDF also deployed more infantry troops to the Gaza Strip, as well as armored combat units that largely comprised Merkava Mark IV tanks fitted with Rafael’s Trophy active protection system that effectively neutralizes the threat of antitank missiles. But for all the preparations, as of Wednesday night, Israel still had no intention of waging a ground campaign in the Gaza Strip.

The troop deployment was meant to render such a contingency a viable option should things deteriorate, but it was chiefly designed to shore up deterrence. Israel hopes that international pressure would help limit the scope of the campaign and render a ground campaign unnecessary. A ground war has both military and political pitfalls that Israel seeks to avoid.

The goal: a short campaign

Over the past several days Western officials have tried to dissuade Israel from realizing its threat to attack hard. Egypt has even hinted it would resort to strong measures if Israel was to trigger an escalation. All the while Cairo has found it increasingly difficult to restrain Hamas.

Security officials assessed prior to the assassination that Egypt would temporarily recall its ambassador from Tel Aviv. This prediction proved accurate, although Cairo has so far stopped short of any additional action. This could change should Israel engage in a protracted and massive campaign that results in a large number of civilian casualties.

The officials further stressed that Egypt has a unique role to play when it comes to preventing such a scenario from materializing if it manages to use its ties and clout in the Gaza Strip to bring about a cease-fire. Avoiding a quagmire is a chief concern of the political echelons, and they have communicated that to the military’s top brass through their operational directives.

The goal of the campaign is to change the rules of the game. Namely, to deter Hamas and the other terrorist groups and to restore calm (“normalcy”) to the southern communities. Another, secondary, goal is to kill the so-called high-value targets and compromise the terrorists’ fire power, primarily by means of targeting strategic weapon systems.

The military was also instructed to take special precautions to avoid hurting noncombatants and to ensure its actions don’t further undermine Israel’s legitimacy abroad. The IDF’s task is to create favorable endgame scenarios that would allow the campaign to meet its objectives as quickly as possible.

For Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, and to a lesser extent to Defense Minister Ehud Barak, the Jabari assassination could be what the raid on Osama bin Laden’s compound was to President Barack Obama in 2011. A successful operation and a sense of calm in the south could significantly boost Netanyahu’s standing at the height of a re-election campaign that has been temporarily suspended.

On the other hand, if the Gaza Strip campaign turns ugly or is perceived as a failure, Jabari’s death could hurt Netanyahu’s electoral chances, just as in the February-March 1996 wave of suicide bombings, when Hamas took revenge for the killing of the Hamas explosives expert (the “engineer”) Yahya Ayyash, contributed to then Prime Minister Shimon Peres’ defeat in the polls.

But apart from any political implications that the campaign may have, Operation Pillar of Defense may be critical when it comes to the security in the south for some time to come: When the dust settles, there should be no doubt as to who won and who lost; who established deterrence and who has been deterred.

The Iron Dome anti-rocket system had intercepted some 50 rockets by Thursday afternoon over major population centers including Ashdod and Beersheba. Some Grad rockets did explode in these cities, causing damage but no loss of life. A factory sustained a direct hit in Ashdod, but there were no casualties. Radio reports said a steady stream of Israelis from southern towns was moving north to escape the constant rockets, although there were no confirmed numbers.

The Israel Defense Forces kept up the pressure on terrorist groups in the Gaza Strip on Thursday as Operation Pillar of Defense entered its second day. The IDF Spokesperson’s Unit said that by Thursday afternoon more than 150 terrorist sites in Gaza had been struck. Meanwhile, Hamas, Islamic Jihad and other terror groups have continued launching rockets at civilian targets in Israel’s south, with around 150 rockets fired at Israel since Wednesday afternoon. The Iron Dome system has successfully intercepted around 50 of those rockets.

Three Israelis were killed when a Grad rocket scored a direct hit on a building in Kiryat Malachi. Police and IDF Homefront Command officers said they had been standing at their apartment’s window when the rocket struck, and might have survived had they obeyed instructions and sought shelter in their building’s stairwell.

Eleven Israelis are being treated at Rehovot’s Kaplan Hospital for injuries of varying degrees. Among the wounded are two babies and a four-year-old boy. The father of the two babies is being treated for severe head wounds and is listed in serious condition at Sheba Hospital near Tel Aviv.

In Gaza, 13 Palestinians — including seven terrorists and four civilians — have been killed by Israeli actions since Wednesday. Among the dead terrorists was Hamas military commander Ahmed Jabari and another senior military wing commander, as well as a three-man rocket launching squad. Among the civilian dead were a seven-year-old girl and a pregnant woman, Palestinian medical sources told the BBC.

Jabari was buried in Gaza City Thursday morning, accompanied by tens of thousands of Gazans. However, senior Hamas officials and military wing commanders did not attend the funeral procession, the BBC reported.

As a sign of the conflict’s wider repercussions, Egypt’s President Mohammed Morsi called an emergency meeting of his cabinet, including his defense minister, and instructed authorities to open the Rafah border between Egypt and the Gaza Strip.

Coming under increasing domestic and Arab pressure, Egypt’s Foreign Ministry on Thursday called on the U.S. to “immediately intervene” to end “Israeli aggression” on Gaza. Egypt recalled its ambassador from Tel Aviv on Wednesday. The Muslim Brotherhood has called for protests to demand that the Egyptian government cut its ties with Israel.

Morsi addressed the Egyptian people on Thursday, saying that Egypt “stands by the Palestinian people to end the Israeli aggression on Gaza,” according to Reuters.

Turkish Foreign Minister Ahmet Davutoglu said he had spoken with Hamas leader Khaled Mashaal, Gazan authorities and Egypt over the Israeli offensive.

“Israel’s occupation policies of establishing settlements and its aggressive position make the situation in the region more critical,” Davutoglu said, adding that Turkey would act in the U.N. to end the Israeli offensive.

Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and Defense Minister Ehud Barak have approved a series of steps presented them by IDF Chief of General Staff Lt. Gen. Benny Gantz, including a limited call up of reservists in special air defense and homefront command units. As of Thursday afternoon, the IDF’s operational footing was largely air-based, although an undetermined number of emergency reserve call-up orders were issued for several units, including air defense, artillery, and Special Operations forces. The move is also seen as a warning message to the Palestinian terror groups.

In addition, the IDF has started sending infantry, tanks and other armored vehicles toward the Gaza border. As of press time, there was no decision to issue wide emergency call-ups for reservists, which would signal that the IDF was headed into a ground operation in Gaza. However, the Knesset’s Foreign Affairs and Defense Committee was to meet in an emergency session later Thursday to discuss approving issuing emergency call-ups for a larger group of IDF reservists.

Cabinet Secretary Zvi Hauser told reporters after Wednesday’s Security Cabinet meeting that the ministers had authorized the IDF to act, under the auspices of the defense minister, to call up reservists and for the Homefront Command to operate on an emergency footing.

In Hebrew, Israel is calling its operation “Pillar of Cloud” (Exodus 13:21). Hamas is calling its operation against Israel “Stones of Shale” (Qur’an 105:4).

IDF Spokesman Brig. Gen. Yoav Mordechai said the current round of fighting would last at least several more days, and Israel expected Hamas to intensify its rocket attacks once it had recovered from the initial shock at Jabari’s death. Mordechai said the goals of “Pillar of Defense” were to return quiet to the residents of Israel’s south and to deal a severe blow to Hamas terrorists in a surgical fashion.

“I estimate that the challenge will become harder in coming days and that our homefront will come under increased rocket attack,” Mordechai said in a briefing.

The IAF knocked out several dozen Fajr-5 missiles and launching sites immediately after killing Jabari on Wednesday afternoon, Mordechai said. The longer-range, Iranian-made Fajr rockets have a range of 70 kilometers (46 miles) and could have been fired at the central Dan region, including Tel Aviv. Hamas’ military wing said that it fired a Fajr rocket at Israel’s central region, a claim rejected by the IDF. The IDF said it had hit all of the Fajr rocket sites it was aware of.

While the Israeli rhetoric is that “Israel does not seek war,” Defense Minister Ehud Barak declared an emergency situation in the communities within a 40km radius of the Gaza Strip as preparation for the coming days’ fighting. Schools within this range were closed Thursday, as were Sapir College in Sderot and Ben Gurion University of the Negev in Beersheba.

Police raised the countrywide alert to emergency footing with all educational facilities receiving extra protection.

While touring the Southern Command on Thursday, Barak said that “hits on Hamas will be systematic, harsh, and will get more intensive. This could be long battle.”

“Jabari was eliminated, the Fajr network, which can reach central Israel, has been almost completely paralyzed,” Barak said. “Our assessment is that their launching capabilities have been intensely degraded and this is just the beginning.”

Internal Security Minister Yitzhak Aharonovitch told Army Radio on Thursday that it was too soon to end the offensive in Gaza, and that Israel “needs to wipe out the leadership of the Hamas and Islamic Jihad terrorist organizations.” A close Netanyahu associate, MK Tzahi Hanegbi, told Army Radio that the government of Israel had internalized the fact that the strategic situation with regards to Gaza had deteriorated, and that it would, perhaps after the January 2013 January elections, act to change the situation in Gaza with an “Operation Defensive Shield 2.” Hanegbi was referring to the IDF’s months-long operation in Palestinian towns in the West Bank during the Second Intifada in which troops surrounded cities and carried out round the clock anti-terror operations. A senior diplomatic source told Israel Hayom that there was already a series of successful operations in the latest offensive, including the assassination of Jabari, the destruction of Fajr rockets, as well as “the thwarting of Hamas’ attempt to hit Israel’s central region.” The source added that the IDF has been ordered to prepare for a ground incursion into Gaza.

Netanyahu on Thursday conducted consultations at IDF headquarters in the Kirya military complex in Tel Aviv, after speaking on the phone with U.S. President Barack Obama and U.N. Secretary General Ban Ki-Moon on Wednesday night

Israel’s U.N. Ambassador Ron Prosor called on the international community to condemn “indiscriminate rocket fire against Israeli citizens – children, women.” He was referring to five days of escalating Palestinian rocket attacks from Gaza. Speaking to reporters, Prosor described Jabari as a “mass murderer” who had been planning fresh attacks against Israeli citizens.