Archive for October 2012

Palestinians fire 3 Grads, 2 Kassams into southern Israel

October 28, 2012

Palestinians fire 3 Grads, 2 Kassams int… JPost – National News.

By JPOST.COM STAFF
10/28/2012 06:20
Rockets explode in open areas near Beersheba, Eshkol regions, respectively; IAF strikes terrorist squad in Gaza in retaliation, one Palestinian reportedly killed, another wounded.

Gaza terrorists launch rockets [file] Photo: IDF Spokesmans Office

Palestinians fired three Grad rockets and two Kassam rockets into southern Israel overnight Saturday, threatening a tenuous ceasefire implemented after a serious escalation earlier this week.

The Grad rockets landed near Beersheba, while the Kassams fell in an open field in the Eshkol region. There were no damages or injuries reported as a result of the attack.

The Israel Air Force initiated a pinpoint strike against a terrorist squad preparing to launch additional rockets into Israel, the IDF Spokesman Office confirmed. The air strike killed at least one Palestinian and wounded another, according to a Reuters report, citing Palestinian officials.

Rueters also quoted Hamas as saying its operatives had fired mortars at Israeli ground forces they say had penetrated the coastal territory since the aerial attack.

“The IDF will not tolerate any attempt to harm Israeli civilians or IDF soldiers, and will continue to act against any organization initiating terror attacks against the State of Israel,” the IDF said following the air strike.

The Beersheba municipality canceled schools Sunday as a result of the threat of ongoing violence.

The violence follows a three-day lull since a surge last week saw Gaza-based terrorists launch over 80 rockets at Israeli towns.

Obama offered to reestablish ties with Iran, paper reports

October 28, 2012

Obama offered to reestablish ties with Iran, paper reports | The Times of Israel.

Diplomatic incentives package, including embassies in Tehran and Washington, rebuffed by Iran, according to Maariv

October 28, 2012, 6:49 am
A mural outside the former US Embassy in Tehran. (photo credit: CC-BY-SA davehighbury, Flickr)

A mural outside the former US Embassy in Tehran. (photo credit: CC-BY-SA davehighbury, Flickr)

The US reportedly offered to reestablish full diplomatic ties with Iran as part of a bid to hold direct talks with the Islamic Republic over its nuclear program, an Israeli daily reported Sunday.

Iran rebuffed the “diplomatic hand” offered by the White House shortly after President Barack Obama took office in 2008, Maariv reported, citing “Western sources very close to the administration.”

The information comes on the heels of reports earlier this month that the US and Iran held back channel contacts toward establishing direct talks over Tehran’s nuclear program. Both the White House and Iran denied the reports.

According to Maariv, however, Deputy Secretary of State William Burns met with chief Iranian nuclear negotiator Saeed Jalili for an hour in 2009, and one other meeting between officials from both sides took place as well.

Included in the diplomatic incentives package offered by Washington would be the opening of interest sections in Washington and Tehran, with the possibility of expanding to full diplomatic ties, with US and Iranian embassies in each other’s capitals. Washington also reportedly offered security cooperation between the countries, direct flights between the US and Iran and the granting of visas to Iranian wishing to visit the US.

If true, the report would mark a sea change in American policy toward Iran, which was officially cut in 1980 when the Shah was overthrown and workers in the American Embassy held hostage for over a year. The US currently maintains a trade embargo with Iran and any diplomatic contacts are officially handled through third parties

According to Maariv, Iran rejected the attempt to reestablish ties out of fear that the regime in Tehran would become weakened by normalization with Washington.

The meeting between Burns and Jalili was reportedly held on the sidelines of talks between Tehran and the five permanent members of the United Nations Security Council plus Germany, also known as the P5+1.

Those talks, which Jerusalem has characterized as a stalling tactic by Tehran to buy time to develop its nuclear program to weapons capabilities, have mostly failed, despite several attempts to hash over curbs to Iran’s uranium enrichment activities.

Last week, the New York Times and NBC reported that Washington had held secret contacts with Iran with the goal of holding one-on-one negotiations over their nuclear program. According to the report in the New York Times, Iran was open to the possibility, but asked to wait until after the American elections on November 6 so they would know who they were negotiating with.

The White House denied the report, but said it has always had an offer on the table for Iran to engage in direct negotiations.

In Jerusalem, Strategic Affairs Minister Moshe Ya’alon said he knew about the contacts and welcomed them while Foreign Minister Avigdor Liberman said he hoped the Obama administration’s denial was true.

Iran’s nuclear program is widely believed to be for military purposes, a claim Iran denies.

Israel considers an Iranian bomb to be an existential threat and has reportedly lobbied for military action against the program, while the US and much of the West maintain that time remains for sanctions and diplomacy to convince Iran to pull back.

Satellite images suggest airstrike on Sudan site

October 28, 2012

Satellite images suggest airstrike on Sudan site – Israel News, Ynetnews.

Craters caused by blast at Khartoum weapons factory consistent with impact created by air-delivered munitions, US experts say; ‘highly volatile cargo’ at center of explosion

Associated Press

Published: 10.27.12, 22:37 / Israel News

Satellite images of the aftermath of an explosion at a Sudanese weapons factory this past week suggest the site was hit in an airstrike, a US monitoring group said Saturday.

The Sudanese government has accused Israel of bombing its Yarmouk military complex in Khartoum, killing two people and leaving the factory in ruins.

The images released by the Satellite Sentinel Project to The Associated Press on Saturday showed six 52-foot (16-meter) wide craters near the epicenter of Wednesday’s explosion at the compound.

Military experts consulted by the project found the craters to be “consistent with large impact craters created by air-delivered munitions, Satellite Sentinel Project spokesman Jonathan Hutson told the AP.

The target may have been around 40 shipping containers seen at the site in earlier images. The group said the craters center on the area where the containers had been stacked.
(צילום: Satellite Sentinel Project)

Top image: Before strike. Bottom image: After strike

Jonah Leff, who monitors Sudan for the Geneva-based Small Arms Survey and was not connected to the project, reviewed the images on Saturday and agreed with the group’s assessment.

The Satellite Sentinel Project further quoted witnesses as saying that they saw three jets “flying fast around southern Khartoum, to the northwest and northeast,” while a fourth, larger plane flew to the northeast at a much higher altitude. The witnesses also said that the sky was “red from fireballs.”

Israeli officials have neither confirmed nor denied striking the site. Instead, they accused Sudan of playing a role in an Iranian-backed network of arms shipments to Hamas and Hezbollah. Israel believes Sudan is a key transit point in the circuitous route that weapons take to the Islamic militant groups in the Gaza Strip and Lebanon.

Sudan was a major hub for al-Qaeda militants and remains a transit for weapon smugglers and African migrant traffickers. Israeli officials believe arms that originate in the Iranian port of Bandar Abbas go through Sudan before crossing Egypt’s lawless Sinai desert and into Gaza through underground tunnels.

The Satellite Sentinel Project is a partnership between the Enough Project, a Washington-based anti-genocide advocacy group and DigitalGlobe, which operates three commercial satellites and provides geospatial analysis. The project was founded last year with support from actor George Clooney, and in the past has used satellite images to monitor the destruction of villages by Sudanese troops in the country’s multiple war zones.

2 buildings destroyed in blast

Opened in 1996, Yarmouk is one of two known state-owned weapons manufacturing plants in the Sudanese capital. Sudan prided itself in having a way to produce its own ammunition and weapons despite United Nations and US sanctions.

The satellite images indicate that the Yarmouk facility includes an oil storage facility, a military depot and an ammunition plant.

The monitoring group said the images indicate that the blast “destroyed two buildings and heavily damaged at least 21 others,” adding that there was no indication of fire damage at the fuel depot inside the military complex.

The group said it could not be certain the containers, seen in images taken Oct. 12, were still there when explosion took place. But the effects of the blast suggested a “highly volatile cargo” was at the epicenter of the explosion.

“If the explosions resulted from a rocket or missile attack against material stored in the shipping containers, then it was an effective surgical strike that totally destroyed any container” that was at the location, the project said.

Yarmouk is located in a densely populated residential area of the city approximately 11 kilometers (seven miles) southwest of the Khartoum International Airport.

Wednesday’s explosion sent exploding ammunition flying into homes in the neighborhood adjacent to the factory, causing panic among residents. Sudanese officials said some people suffered from smoke inhalation.
באשיר. "תגובה היסטרית" (צילום: AFP)

Sudanese president Omar al-Bashir (Photo: AFP)

A man who lives near the factory said that from inside their house, he and his brother heard a load roar of what they believed was a plane just before the boom of the explosion sounded from the factory.

In the aftermath of Wednesday’s explosion, Sudanese officials said the government has the right to respond to what the information minister said was a “flagrant attack” by Israel on Sudan’s sovereignty and right to strengthen its military capabilities.

In a Friday speech marking Eid al Adha, Islam’s biggest holiday, Sudanese president Omar al-Bashir called Israel “short-sighted,” according to comments published by the Egyptian state-owned paper Al Ahram. The president likened the incident to the 1998 bombing by American cruise missiles of a Khartoum pharmaceutical factory suspected of links to al-Qaeda.

Some Israeli commentators suggested that if Israel did indeed carry out an airstrike causing Wednesday’s blast, it might have been a trial run of sorts for an operation in Iran. Both countries are roughly 1,000 miles (1,600 kilometers) away from Israel, and an air operation would require careful planning and in-flight refueling.

Khartoum threatens Israel after Iranian generals examine missile factory rubble

October 27, 2012

Khartoum threatens Israel after Iranian generals examine missile factory rubble.

DEBKAfile Exclusive Report October 27, 2012, 5:34 PM (GMT+02:00)

 

Sudan claims Israeli ordnance found at bomb site

Sudanese President Omar Bashir pledged decisive steps against “Israeli interests which are now legitimate targets.”  He spoke Saturday, Oct. 27 after a team of Iranian generals completed a secret examination of the rubble left of the Khartoum Shehab ballistic missile factory after an air attack on Oct. 24.
Israeli officials have refused to comment on the attack. However, Sudanese Information Minister Ahmed Belal Othman said “military experts” who surveyed what was left of the Yarmouk Industrial Complex had determined that it was destroyed by Israel-made missiles.
The minister added that no country in the region besides Israel owns the sophisticated weapons used in the attack.
He also confirmed that Khartoum international airport’s radar system was disabled during the raid, confirming the claim made by Iranian sources the next day.
Othman did not identity the “military experts” who examined the residue at the bomb site or explain how they were able to identify the weapons used. However, debkafile’s military sources disclose that those experts were Iranian military chiefs of the highest ranks:  Iranian Air Force Chief Brig. Gen. Hassan Shah-Safi; Commander of the Islamic Revolution Guards Corps (IRGC) Aerospace Forces Brig. Gen. Amir Ali Hajizadeh; Deputy Air Force Commander Brig. Gen. Aziz Nasirzadeh; and Commander of Iran’s Khatam al-Anbiya Air Defense Base Brig. Gen. Farzad Esmaili.
The exalted ranks of these officers, sent secretly and post haste to Khartoum after the incident, attested to the extreme consternation caused in Tehran by the missile factory’s destruction and its importance to Iran’s regional military organization for a potential US or Israeli attack.
The generals were instructed to conduct a professional and detailed analysis to determine the capabilities of the air force which sent the four bombers to level the Shehab factory and how those capabilities were applicable to a potential long-distance Israeli aerial strike against Iran.
The team of investigators, which arrived in Khartoum by an Iranian military plane hours after the attack, was collected and escorted by the Sudanese chief of staff, Gen. Ismat Abdel Rahman in a tightly-secured convoy of armored vehicles with helicopter cover straight to the wrecked factory for their inquiry.
They also examined Sudan’s radar system to find out how it was jammed.
Our military sources add: This was the second time in three weeks that Iranian air force, air defense and cyber war experts have had the chance to study Israel’s air force and electronic capabilities – while also exposing many facets of their own. Just three weeks ago, on Oct. 6, an Iranian stealth drone penetrated Israeli air space. Iranian cyber exports, operating from Hizballah’s security service bunkers in South Beirut, conducted cyber duel with Israeli experts before the IAF downed the interloper.
In Sudan, the Iranian generals tried to learn what they could about the methods and equipment Israel used to jam Sudan’s radar systems which, like those in Iranian use, are made in Russia.

We are all Tyrone Woods…

October 27, 2012

We are all Tyrone Woods… – YouTube.

The father of a former Navy SEAL killed in the Libya terror attack last month said Friday that U.S. officials who denied a request for help while the diplomatic compound in Benghazi was under attack “are murderers of my son.”

Charles Woods was reacting to accounts by Fox News sources that a request from the CIA annex for backup was denied by U.S. officials. His son, Tyrone Woods, was killed in the Sept. 11 assault.

“They refused to pull the trigger,” Woods said. “Those people who made the decision and who knew about the decision and lied about it are murderers of my son.”

Woods said he forgives whoever denied the apparent request, but he urged them to “stand up.”

Sources also said Tyrone Woods and others, who were at the CIA annex about a mile from the U.S. consulate, ignored orders by their superiors to stand down and not go to the consulate to help. Woods went to the consulate, and hours later he was killed back at the annex.

Charles Woods said his son’s action “does not surprise me.”

“I wish that the leadership in the White House had the same level of moral courage and heroism that my son displayed,” he said.

CIA spokeswoman Jennifer Youngblood on Friday denied the claims that requests for help on Sept. 11 were denied.

“We can say with confidence that the Agency reacted quickly to aid our colleagues during that terrible evening in Benghazi,” she said. “Moreover, no one at any level in the CIA told anybody not to help those in need; claims to the contrary are simply inaccurate. In fact, it is important to remember how many lives were saved by courageous Americans who put their own safety at risk that night-and that some of those selfless Americans gave their lives in the effort to rescue their comrades.”

Woods, in interviews earlier this week, also described a series of conversations he had with administration officials at the memorial service held Sept. 14. He said that Secretary of State Hillary Clinton — despite signs early on that militants were behind the attack — pledged to him at that event that she would pursue the maker of an anti-Islam film that had been linked to other protests.

“Her countenance was not good and she made this statement to me … she said we will make sure that the person who made that film is arrested and prosecuted,” he said on radio host Glenn Beck’s online show, adding that she also apologized.

Woods said he “could tell that she was not telling me the truth.”

The account shows an apparent disconnect between evidence that extremists were involved in the attack — including a newly released State Department email on the day of the attack saying the militant Ansar al-Sharia had claimed responsibility — and the desire by some to focus strictly on the film as the cause.

The State Department on Friday reiterated that the administration is committed to seeking justice for those responsible.

“Since the moment they were first given the terrible news of their loss, through that very difficult day when they witnessed the return of the remains of their loved ones, and every day since, the families of those killed have been a top priority of the department,” State Department spokesman Mark Toner said Friday. “And everything is being done to bring to justice those responsible for their deaths.”

Clinton and the rest of the administration made repeated reference to the video in their public comments in the days after the attack. U.S. Ambassador to the U.N. Susan Rice said on Sept 16 the attack was a “spontaneous” reaction to demonstrations over the video. The administration even funded an ad in Pakistan condemning the video.

Intelligence officials have since given a mixture picture, saying the strike was a coordinated terror attack — but also leaving open the door to the possibility that militants reacted opportunistically to the protests in Egypt at the time over the film.

Sens. McCain, Graham and Ayotte wrote a letter requesting the immediate declassification of all surveillance video in and around the U.S. Consulate in Benghazi for the two days that it was under attack.

“It is vitally important that the American people know all of the facts surrounding the attack in Benghazi last month, and this surveillance video can shed important light on the nature of the attack and what kind of response could have been effective while it was ongoing,” the letter said.

Woods also described encounters on Sept. 14 with Vice President Biden and President Obama.

He claimed that at one point, Biden came over to him and said, “in an extremely loud and boisterous voice, ‘did your son always have balls the size of cue balls?'”

The limits of US power

October 27, 2012

The limits of US power – JPost – Opinion – Columnists.

10/25/2012 22:14
Israel is the only country that can prevent the genocidal Iranian regime with regional and global ambitions from acquiring the means to carry out its goals.

Iran's Sajil 2 missile Photo: REUTERS

Monday’s US presidential debate on foreign policy came and went. And we are none the wiser for it.

Not surprisingly, at the height of the campaign season, neither US President Barack Obama nor his Republican challenger Gov. Mitt Romney was interested in revealing his plans for the next four years.

But from what was said, we can be fairly certain that a second Obama term will involve no departure from his foreign policy in his current term in office.

As far as Iran and its nuclear weapons program is concerned, that policy has involved a combination of occasional tough talk and a relentless attempt to appease the mullahs. While Obama denied The New York Times report from last weekend that he has agreed to carry out new bilateral negotiations with Iran after the US presidential elections, his administration has acknowledged that it would be happy to have such talks if they can be arranged.

As for Romney, his statements of support for tougher sanctions, including moving to indict Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad for the crime of incitement of genocide were certainly welcome.

But they were also rather out of date, given the lateness of the hour.

If there was ever much to recommend it, the “sanction Iran into abandoning its nuclear weapons” policy is no longer a relevant option. The timetables are too short.

On the other hand, Romney’s identification of Iran as the gravest national security threat facing the US made clear that he understands the severity of the threat posed by Iran’s nuclear weapons program.

And consequently, if Romney defeats Obama on November 6, it is likely that on January 21, 2013, the US will adopt a different policy towards Iran.

The question for Israel now is whether any of this matters. If Romney is elected and adopts a new policy towards Iran, what if any operational significance will this policy shift have for Israel? The short answer is very little.

To understand why this is the case we need to consider two issues: The time it would take for a new US policy to be implemented; and the time Iran requires to become a nuclear power.

In the aftermath of the September 11, 2001, jihadist attacks on the US, then-president George W. Bush faced no internal opposition to overthrowing the Taliban regime in Afghanistan. The US military and intelligence arms all supported the operation. Congress supported the operation. The American public supported the operation. The UN supported the mission.

And still, it took the US four weeks to plan and launch Operation Enduring Freedom in Afghanistan on October 7, 2001. That is, under optimal conditions, the US needed nearly a month to respond to the largest foreign attack on the US mainland since the War of 1812.

Then of course there was Operation Iraqi Freedom which officially began on March 20, 2003, with the US-British ground invasion of Iraq from Kuwait.

Bush and his advisers began seriously considering overthrowing Saddam Hussein’s regime in the spring of 2002. They met with resistance from the US military. They met with a modicum of political opposition in Congress, and more serious opposition in the media. Moreover, they met with harsh opposition from France and Russia and other key players at the UN and in the international community. So, too, they met with harsh opposition from senior UN officials.

It took the administration until November 2002 to get the UN Security Council to pass Resolution 1441 which found Iraq in material breach of the cease-fire that ended the 1991 Gulf War. The US and Britain began repositioning ground forces and war materiel in Kuwait ahead of a ground invasion that month. It took more than four months for the Americans and the British to complete the forward deployment of their forces in Kuwait.

During those long months, other parties, unsympathetic to the US, Britain and their aims had ample opportunity to make their own preparations to deny the US and Britain the ability to win the war quickly and easily and so avoid the insurgency that ensued in the absence of a clear victory. So, too, the four months the US required to ready for war enabled Iran to plan and begin executing its plan to suck the US into a prolonged proxy war with its surrogates from al-Qaida and Hezbollah protégés.

A CLEAR Anglo-American victory would have involved the location, presentation and destruction of Saddam’s weapons of mass destruction. And this Saddam denied them. By the time US ground forces finally arrived, despite massive telltale signs that such weapons had been in Iraq until very recently, no smoking gun was found.

In the long lead up to the US invasion, then-prime minister Ariel Sharon warned that satellite data indicated that Iraq was transporting its chemical weapons arsenal to Syria. Sharon’s warnings fell on deaf ears. So, too, a report by a Syrian journalist that WMD had been transferred to Syria was ignored.

According to a detailed report by Ryan Mauro at PJMedia.com from June 2010, after the fall of Saddam’s regime, the Iraq Survey Group, charged with assessing the status of Iraq’s WMD arsenal, received numerous credible reports that the chemical weapons had been sent to Syria before the invasion.

The stream of reports about the pre-invasion transfer of Iraq’s WMD to Syria have continued to intermittently surface since the outbreak of the Syrian civil war last year.

In short, at a minimum, the time the US required to mount its operation in Iraq enabled Saddam to prepare the conditions to deny America the ability to achieve a clear victory.

THIS BRINGS us to Iran. In the event that Romney is elected to the presidency, upon entering office he would face a military leadership led by Gen. Martin Dempsey that has for four years sought to minimize the danger that Iran’s nuclear weapons program poses to the US. Dempsey has personally employed language to indicate that he believes an Israeli preemptive strike against Iran’s nuclear weapons sites would be an illegal act of aggression.

Romney would face intelligence, diplomatic and military establishments that at a minimum have been complicit in massive leaks of Israeli strike options against Iran and that have so far failed to present credible military options for a US strike against Iran’s uranium enrichment sites and other nuclear installations.

He would face a hostile media establishment that firmly and enthusiastically supports Obama’s policy of relentless appeasement and has sought to discredit as a warmonger and a racist every politician who has tried to make the case that Iran’s nuclear weapons program constitutes an unacceptable threat to US national security.

Then, too, Romney would face a wounded Democratic base, controlled by politicians who have refused to cooperate with Republicans since 2004.

And he would face an electorate that has never heard a cogent case for military action against Iran. (Although, with the goodwill with which the American public usually greets its new presidents, this last difficulty would likely be the least of his worries.)

At the UN, Romney would face the same gridlock faced by his two predecessors on Iran. Russia and China would block UN Security Council action against the mullocarcy.

AS FOR the Arab world, whereas when Obama came into office in 2009, the Sunni Arab world was united in its opposition to a nuclear-armed Iran, today Muslim Brotherhood-ruled Egypt favors Iran more than it favors the US. Arguably only Saudi Arabia would actively support an assault on Iran’s nuclear weapons sites. All the other US allies have either switched sides, or like Jordan, Kuwait and Bahrain are too weak to offer any open assistance or political support. For its part, Iraq is already acting as Iran’s satrapy, allowing Iran to transfer weapons to Bashar Assad’s henchmen through its territory.

All of this means that as was the case in Iraq, it would likely take until at least the summer of 2013, if not the fall, before a Romney administration would be in a position to take any military action against Iran’s nuclear installations.

And it isn’t only US military campaigns that take a long time to organize. It also takes a long time for US administrations to change arm sales policies.

For instance, if a hypothetical Romney administration wished to supply Israel with certain weapons systems that would make an Israeli strike against Iran’s nuclear installations more successful, it could take months for such deals to be concluded, approved by Congress, and then executed.

This then brings us to the question of where will Iran’s nuclear weapons program likely stand by next summer?

In his speech before the UN General Assembly last month, Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu said that by next spring or at the latest next summer Iran will have reached the final stage of uranium enrichment and will be able to acquire sufficient quantities of bomb-grade uranium for a nuclear weapon within a few months or even a few weeks.

Netanyahu said that the last opportunity to prevent Iran from acquiring nuclear weapons will be before it reaches the final stage of uranium enrichment – that is, by the spring. At that point, a hypothetical Romney administration will have been in office for mere months. A new national security leadership will just be coming into its own.

It is extremely difficult to imagine that a new US administration would be capable of launching a preemptive attack against Iran’s nuclear installations at such an early point in its tenure in office.

Indeed, it is hard to see how such a new administration would be able to offer Israel any material support for an Israeli strike against Iran’s nuclear installations by next spring.

So this leaves us with Israel. Over the past several weeks, there has been a spate of reports indicating that Israel’s military and intelligence establishments forced Netanyahu to take a step back from rhetorical brinksmanship on Iran. Our commanders are reportedly dead set against attacking Iran without US support and still insist that Israel can and must trust the Americans to take action to prevent Iran from acquiring nuclear weapons.

There is great plausibility to these reports for a number of reasons. The intelligence and military brass have for years suffered from psychological dependence of the US and believe that Israel’s most important strategic interest is to ensure US support for the country. Then, too, in the event that an Israeli strike takes place against the backdrop of a larger military confrontation with Iran’s proxies in Syria, Lebanon and Gaza, Israel would likely require rapid resupply of arms to ensure its ability to fend off its enemies.

But when we consider the political realities of the US – in the event that Obama is reelected or in the event that Romney takes the White House – it is clear that Israel will remain the only party with the means – such as they are – and the will to strike Iran’s nuclear installations.

Israel is the only country that can prevent this genocidal regime with regional and global ambitions from acquiring the means to carry out its goals.

caroline@carolineglick.com

To our air force: Congratulations on Khartoum !

October 26, 2012

Ahmadinijad, guess who’s coming to dinner (Eye of the Tiger with lyrics) – YouTube.

לחיל האוויר שלנו:
ברכות על חרטום
!

Is there a secret US-Iran agreement?

October 26, 2012

Israel Hayom | Is there a secret US-Iran agreement?.

Dore Gold

In one of the strangest articles on the relations between the U.S. and Iran, the New York Times reported on October 20 that Washington and Tehran had reached an agreement to hold one-on-one negotiations over Iran’s nuclear program.

The sources that provided the story, according to the newspaper, were “Obama administration officials.” They added that Iran only insisted that the proposed negotiations be held after the U.S. elections.

Yet in the sixth paragraph of the very same article in which Obama administration officials disclose the U.S.-Iranian agreement, the White House issued a firm denial that any final agreement had been reached. National Security Council spokesman Tommy Vietor released a statement saying: “It’s not true that the United States and Iran have agreed to one-on-one talks or any meeting after the American elections.”

How was it possible that administration officials were telling one of the most prominent newspapers in the U.S. one thing, while other officials were saying something else? Iranian Foreign Minister Ali Akbar Salehi also denied that there were any negotiations with America. Were there secret U.S.-Iranian negotiations, as the New York Times suggested, or were there not?

According to NBC News, a senior administration official offered the following explanation: there have been “back-channel” talks between the U.S. and Iran about setting up a more formal bilateral meeting between the two sides. Back-channel negotiations, by definition, are informal and do not involve government officials, but rather academics, former officers or retired diplomats. Because they are unofficial they allow the parties involved to deny their existence. Sometimes they are called Track-II negotiations. By referring to this possibility, NBC gave a plausible explanation for what occurred.

This was not the first time that there were contacts between the U.S. and Iran that were called “back-channel talks”. On May 4, 2003, the Swiss ambassador to Iran, Tim Guldimann , faxed what he argued was an Iranian proposal for a rapprochement with the U.S. to the Swiss embassy to Washington. It supposedly outlined the basis of a “grand bargain” between the two countries. The fax was promptly delivered to the Department of State. The back-channel proposal was not written by an academic but rather by the Iranian ambassador to France, whose sister was married to the son of Ayatollah Khamenei.

News of the “Guldimann Fax”, as it came to be called was leaked to the press. Nicholas Kristoff of the New York Times blasted the Bush administration for not taking up the Iranian offer. Condoleezza Rice denied ever seeing the document. The State Department, however, examined the document carefully. There was a serious problem with the Guldimann Fax which plagues all back-channel diplomacy: was it a genuine offer from Tehran? Richard Armitage, who was Secretary of State Collin Powell’s deputy, told Newsweek that he could not determine what in the proposal was an authentic Iranian offer and what was the product of the creativity of the Swiss ambassador. Clearly back-channel initiatives are full of risks.

The Iranians validated Armitage’s doubts. Appearing on PBS four years later, Hossein Shariatmadari, who served as a personal spokesman for Ayatollah Khamenei, denied that the Guldimann Fax had ever been approved by Khamenei. Whether he was covering for his boss or not, the whole episode illustrated the problem of relying on a dialogue between countries that is not formally conducted by its representatives. Even in the case of the latest report earlier this week in the New York Times about a new U.S.-Iranian agreement, U.S. officials told the newspaper that they were not certain whether Ayatollah Khamenei approved of what the senior Iranians who were involved had done.

There is a belief in the journalistic community in Washington that the New York Times report originally came from the Iranians, who had the most to gain from publicizing the existence of the secret U.S.-Iranian talks. These same sources contend that only later the Iranian leak was corroborated by U.S. officials who were asked about it. The Iranians demonstrated how they could skillfully use such reports in the past. In 2003, the Iranians feared the Bush administration might strike militarily after it vanquished Saddam Hussein. The Iranians understood that newspaper reports about impending negotiations would help them avert any future Western military attack.

Ultimately, Iran agreed back in 2003 to start formal talks with the Europeans for a more limited goal of easing international pressures against it and keeping the UN Security Council from adopting a decision against Iran for at least three years. Tehran has also sought to use negotiations in order to drive a wedge between the U.S. and its European allies. In the present case, news that the U.S. wanted to strike a separate deal this year outside of the framework of the P5 + 1 could help Iran undercut the international consensus over international sanctions.

But it is doubtful that in an election year the White House had anything to gain from the leak about a U.S.-Iranian agreement. Without clear specifics about what it actually gained from Tehran, the Obama administration would be exposed to charges that it was not firm at the negotiating table. Already the New York Times suggested officials were considering permitting Iran to continue with low-level enrichment in any future agreement (UN resolutions since 2006, in contrast, prohibit any enrichment). Whether the U.S.-Iranian contacts that were reported this week are being handled as back-channel negotiations, despite all the known pitfalls of this approach, or as formal secret talks, the Obama administration probably would have preferred that they not have been revealed at this precise time.

The banality of evil

October 26, 2012

The banality of evil – Israel Opinion, Ynetnews.

Op-ed: US, EU leaders have grown accustomed to certain degree of barbarity by Iran regime

Riccardo Dugulin

Published: 10.26.12, 00:08 / Israel Opinion

This coming month of November will certainly win the interest of a great amount of media coverage as the world will focus on the result of the American elections. Yet before the 6th another date in the calendar should be considered worth the attention.

November 4th will mark the 33rd anniversary of the unilateral attack by hundreds of Iranian students on the US embassy in Tehran and the subsequent 444-days long hostage crisis. In its uniqueness this event marked the clear rupture by the Islamic Republic with the previously established Iranian relations with the White House. Along with that, it also introduced the new modus operandi for Iran to deal with its adversaries, namely the use of force and terror against non-military targets aimed at inflating the power of the Islamic revolution in international relations.

In a year of presidential elections in the United States and as elections are closing in for the Tehran political establishment, any move by current president Ahmadinejad should be scrutinized as he may attempt to tilt the balance in his favor and try to go down in history as the Iranian president who attacked Western interests on numerous occasions.

The question is then why so little attention is given to this anniversary? The current international focus on Iran is almost solely centered on its nuclear program. If this is a major strategic necessity for Israel, it does not justify the European or American stance over the nature of the threat. The development of nuclear capabilities for military use is in itself an outstanding threat for the security of the whole region yet it is so especially due to the specific ideology present in the political and religious establishment of the Islamic Republic.

Analysts and decision makers must not differentiate Tehran’s objectives and its means. Since 1979, Iran has been effectively waging a campaign of mass repression within its own borders and using its socio-military capabilities to export terror as a structured mean of foreign policy. The objective behind these actions remains linked to an expansionist agenda based on a revolutionary ideology deeply linked to the core values of the Islamic revolution.  

Ahmadinejad at nuclear reactor (Photo: AP)
Ahmadinejad at nuclear reactor (Photo: AP)

By not harshly denouncing and merely continuously arguing against this state-lead machine, the United States and the European countries are in part tacitly approving a certain number of actions which can in their opinion be tolerated.

Today, few world leaders would really act against the continuous repression and persecution of religious minorities in Iran. An extremely limited number of persons would actually take extensive action to credibly denounce and rebuke Iranian anti-Semitic and genocidal discourse while the response to Iranian support of international terrorism remains conditional to the gravity of single attacks.

Massive internal repressions

What are the reasons behind this reality? An explanation may be found in the fact that American and European decision makers have grown accustomed to a certain degree of barbarity by the Iranian regime, that certain degree of ‘evil’ which is now expected to appear in speeches, actions and policies from the Islamic Republic.

There is a comfort zone in which deciders have now fallen into. The mass arrests and executions of Baha’is since the 1990s, as well as the implementation of plans to resolve the “Baha’i question” do not generate widespread condemnation.

The execution of Iranian citizens due to their sexual tendencies no longer makes the front page of major media outlets. Legal cases against the tremendous political repressions that have left more than 30,000 dead in the 1980s and 1990s do not hold a first place in international news outlets and few are surprised by political and religious leaders’ calls for the annihilation of Israel.

The closure of the Strait of Hormuz or subversive interventions in Syria, Yemen, Bahrain, Iraq, Lebanon and some African countries have become to a certain extent the norms to which decision makers contemplate the Iranian threat.

This absurd situation is possible simply because over the last 33 years the United States and European countries have grown accustomed to a certain trend of evil and now do find it banal in the sense that it is no longer an exceptional matter. Since the 1980s Iran has sponsored terrorism that has cost the lives of Israelis, Europeans and Americans while not being directly held accountable for it.

This situation creates a very high risk: the Tehran establishment quickly understands that it can act freely as long as it does not trespass certain tacit barriers. Neither the United States nor the European Union will risk an international conflict to respond to a growing terrorist threat or to stop devastating internal repressions.

Such a reality brings back memories of the European decade preceding the Second World War. European liberal democracies, suffering from internal instability and protracted economic crises attempted to contain Nazi Germany.

Providing Hitler with a breathing space which led him to fully militarize his state, crush opponents, annex Austria, occupy Czechoslovakia and lay the foundation for the systematic massacre of 6 million Jews and another 6 million innocent souls. Liberal democracies attempted to follow reason to deter Hitler and in some way accepted a certain degree of ‘evil’ with which they then thought Europe could live with.

In our decade, the threat is similar. Iran has in the last 33 years been laying the foundations for a terror state based on massive internal repressions and increased external aggressions. By providing it with the same breathing space Nazi Germany received from European liberal democracies, Iran has rapidly been shaping a policy based on the maximum amount of damage it can cause within the acceptable degree of evil set by its adversaries.

President Obama did state in his speech at the United Nations General Assembly that a nuclear armed Iran cannot be contained, yet little, apart from sanctions, is effectively being done to roll it back.

Borrowing Hannah Arendt’s phrase of the ‘banality of evil’ in regard to the Iranian power structure does not mean it is comparable to the Nazi state, yet by accepting the evil within the Iranian establishment, the normalization of its calls for genocide and the relative passiveness vis-à-vis the expansion of its military means, does recall the situation which enabled the Nazi state to enact the worst policies ever experienced in human history.

It took the attack on Poland for European democracies to slowly attempt to curb Hitler’s ambitions by force. The United States and the EU must make sure that the threshold to act against Iran is lower than a full aggression on a sovereign state. Forceful action should not only be seen as a full spectrum military campaign but as an ensemble of military, economic and political means aimed at rolling back and not only containing the Iranian terror state.

Riccardo Dugulin holds a Master degree from the Paris School of International Affairs (Sciences Po) and is specialized in International Security. He is currently working in Paris for a Medical and Security Assistance company. He has worked for a number of leading think tanks in Washington DC, Dubai and Beirut. Personal website: www.riccardodugulin.com

Report: UK says won’t aid US strike on Iran

October 26, 2012

Report: UK says won’t aid US strike on Iran – Israel News, Ynetnews.

( Another Obama foreign policy catastrophe. – JW )

The Guardian says London apprehensive about possible preemptive strike on Tehran’s nuclear facilities as ‘Iran not yet a clear and present threat’

Ynet

Published: 10.26.12, 11:51 / Israel News

Britain does not consider Iran as a “clear and present threat” and will not aid the United States should it mount a preemptive strike on Tehran’s nuclear facilities, The Guardian reported Friday.

According to the report, the London has so fat denied a request by US diplomats to use British bases – such as in the Ascension Island in the Atlantic and Diego Garcia in the Indian Ocean – to support the build-up of western forces in the Persian Gulf.

A US state department official told the Guardian that, “The US and the UK co-ordinate on all kinds of subjects all the time, on a huge range of issues. We never speak on the record about these types of conversations.”

London argued that any preemptive strike “could be in breach of international law.”

According to the report, the UK Foreign Office’s intelligence assessments do not deem the Islamic Republic’s nuclear program as “a clear and present threat.”

“The UK would be in breach of international law if it facilitated what amounted to a pre-emptive strike on Iran,” a senior Whitehall source was quoted by The Guardian as saying.

“It is explicit. The government has been using this to push back against the Americans.”

British Destroyer (Photo: EPA)
British Destroyer (Photo: EPA)

The newspaper quoted another source as saying, “I think the US has been surprised that ministers have been reluctant to provide assurances about this kind of upfront assistance.”

The Royal Navyhas several warships in the Persian Gulf, including a nuclear-powered submarine.

The Guardian further reported that a Britishmilitary delegation met with US military officials in Florida over the summer “to run through a range of contingency plans.”

“It is quite likely that if the Israelis decided to attack Iran, or the Americans felt they had to do it for the Israelis or in support of them, the UK would not be told beforehand,” a top London source told the newspaper. “In some respects, the UK government would prefer it that way.”

A UK Foreign Office spokesman said: “As we continue to make clear, the government does not believe military action against Iran is the right course of action at this time, although no option is off the table.

“We believe that the twin-track approach of pressure through sanctions, which are having an impact and engagement with Iran, is the best way to resolve the nuclear issue. We are not going to speculate about scenarios in which military action would be legal. That would depend on the circumstances at the time.”